It's a bit more subtle than that because Cameron's setting up a referendum based his "renegotiation", which will consist of a bunch of reforms that will be over-promised and never delivered. Three years after the referendum with no sign of the thing people voted on actually happening, UKIP might have a decent case for running for election on "This is bullshit, let's just leave".
Nevertheless, I suspect skipping a referendum, if they only got (say) 35% of the vote, would probably lead to the break-up of the Union. If pretty much every Scottish MP (for example) was pro-EU (as looks likely) and they chose to take the Scotland out of the EU, and against (say) a 60:40 in vote in Scotland, I can't see them choosing to stay in the UK. Likewise, if London voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, and for pro-EU parties, I think that would look similarly horrible.
I really think that something of the magnitude of leaving the EU has to be done through a referendum. Of course, if UKIP were to get 40-45% of the vote, or if there were "out" parties with 50+% of the vote, then it would be less problematic. But a 35% UKIP vote putting through "out" legislation without a referendum would be explosive - just as the SNP passing UDI would be.
Referendum or not, I'd say the UK leaving the EU would lead to the break-up of the Union in any case...
That said, I think UKIP would have a referendum.
In the 1974 common market entry referendum Scotland was markedly more eurosceptic than England. I think your overestimating Scottish europhilia. Leaving the EU would arguably strengthen the Union.
Using data from 40 years ago doesn't help your argument.
The latest polling is showing completely the opposite, pretty consistently.
From yesterday:
stay/leave: OA: 40/41 Scot: 59/22
Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......
I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.
Why the condescension when I post data supporting your point?
I see, Mr G. You describe "Nippy Sweetie" as an insult, especially to Ms Sturgeon, whereas Camyx quoted a definition which suggested it wasn’t. Particularly, anyway.
I must say, I thought it read as though it was intended to be offensive, especially as it has the same initials.
It is not complementary in any way shape or form, for sure. Not the end of the world but it would be end of conversation or you would receive verbal or physical abuse in return.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
Could UKIP honestly win Islington south - it must be a true chance of way less than 1% given the demographics etc... Even if you were to offer 100-1 I wouldn't back it there.
In Islington South, I think Labour has done the incredible double act of sending metropolitan Lefties to the LibDems, and traditional voters to UKIP. The 'bar' for winning Islington South might be lower than people think.
While I wouldn't be betting on UKIP at 33/1 (or at least not for more than a purely speculative £5), I think 100/1 would be very generous.
A W/OUT LABOUR market would be interesting there...
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
Could UKIP honestly win Islington south - it must be a true chance of way less than 1% given the demographics etc... Even if you were to offer 100-1 I wouldn't back it there.
In Islington South, I think Labour has done the incredible double act of sending metropolitan Lefties to the LibDems, and traditional voters to UKIP. The 'bar' for winning Islington South might be lower than people think.
While I wouldn't be betting on UKIP at 33/1 (or at least not for more than a purely speculative £5), I think 100/1 would be very generous.
I'll take a fiver at 40-1 if you like, can add it to my GE winnings.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
As you would expect from a Tory on the SNP it is a derogatory name, very poor indeed.
And it seems like only last week that you called someone a 'dozy mare'. Oh wait, it was.
Time to crawl back into your cave.
Yes a man you turnip , hardly similar and a poster on here not the FM. Got yourself a new cardboard box yet.
No, you described Myleene Klass as such. Here's your post from November 18th.
"malcolmg said: » show previous quotes Whilst Ed is still crap , it did show how out of touch Tories are in this country, the dozy mare did not even have the brains to realise that the majority of people struggle to survive rather than paying £2 million for garages. Thick as mince z lister Tory.'
Well take me out and shoot me. Have you no life other than hoarding posts on here and spouting insults. Begone weird creature , go stalk someone else.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
Could UKIP honestly win Islington south - it must be a true chance of way less than 1% given the demographics etc... Even if you were to offer 100-1 I wouldn't back it there.
In Islington South, I think Labour has done the incredible double act of sending metropolitan Lefties to the LibDems, and traditional voters to UKIP. The 'bar' for winning Islington South might be lower than people think.
While I wouldn't be betting on UKIP at 33/1 (or at least not for more than a purely speculative £5), I think 100/1 would be very generous.
I'll take a fiver at 40-1 if you like, can add it to my GE winnings.
Are you offering me 40-1 for £5? As in, I win £200 if UKIP win, and you win £5 otherwise?
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
As you would expect from a Tory on the SNP it is a derogatory name, very poor indeed.
And it seems like only last week that you called someone a 'dozy mare'. Oh wait, it was.
Time to crawl back into your cave.
Yes a man you turnip , hardly similar and a poster on here not the FM. Got yourself a new cardboard box yet.
No, you described Myleene Klass as such. Here's your post from November 18th.
"malcolmg said: » show previous quotes Whilst Ed is still crap , it did show how out of touch Tories are in this country, the dozy mare did not even have the brains to realise that the majority of people struggle to survive rather than paying £2 million for garages. Thick as mince z lister Tory.'
Well take me out and shoot me. Have you no life other than hoarding posts on here and spouting insults. Begone weird creature , go stalk someone else.
I think he deserted to UKIP a while ago didn't he? The comment is blatantly racist so he has found a good new home. Mr Fitzpatrick has certainly not lost any of his socialist credentials so one is left wondering just what is the glue that holds him and Carswell together. Robert Iwaszkiewicz perhaps ? The good Robert is a member of the party led by this man http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-does-deal-with-far-right-to-save-european-grouping
I'd like to requote what he said but there would be too many asterisks and it would probably make me feel too dirty anyway.
I think we can agree its a very sticky glue if Carswell can remain attached to UKIP.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
As you would expect from a Tory on the SNP it is a derogatory name, very poor indeed.
And it seems like only last week that you called someone a 'dozy mare'. Oh wait, it was.
Time to crawl back into your cave.
Yes a man you turnip , hardly similar and a poster on here not the FM. Got yourself a new cardboard box yet.
No, you described Myleene Klass as such. Here's your post from November 18th.
"malcolmg said: » show previous quotes Whilst Ed is still crap , it did show how out of touch Tories are in this country, the dozy mare did not even have the brains to realise that the majority of people struggle to survive rather than paying £2 million for garages. Thick as mince z lister Tory.'
Well take me out and shoot me. Have you no life other than hoarding posts on here and spouting insults. Begone weird creature , go stalk someone else.
Hoarding? It takes seconds to search the site.
Let's face it, you're a sexist hypocrite.
Beats being a cretinous lowlife stalking degenerate any day.
Comments
Let's face it, you're a sexist hypocrite.
The good Robert is a member of the party led by this man
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/20/ukip-does-deal-with-far-right-to-save-european-grouping
I'd like to requote what he said but there would be too many asterisks and it would probably make me feel too dirty anyway.
I think we can agree its a very sticky glue if Carswell can remain attached to UKIP.