Turnout for the next London mayoral elections should be interesting. My guess is that it will be a whole lot lower than the last two times.
Why do you think that? I can't be the only one who didn't feel able to vote for any of the main candidates last time. Khan or Lammy would both be acceptable as far as I'm concerned. If, however, Simon Hughes were to run for the LDs I'd vote for him ahead of them.
I'd vote for Jowell over Khan or Lammy, though as between the latter two I'd choose Lammy. Khan is the one proposing ethnic quotas and the last thing we need is that sort of identity politics and the divisions it brings. There was too much of that with Livingstone, frankly, and Tower Hamlets is another example of what it can lead to.
Looking out of my window in Bedford there's a Saltire flying looking magnificent on a bright cold morning. Is this some cybernat trick? No. Our local church is St. Andrew's
In which case just as appropriate for them to fly the old Russian flag since he is their Patron Saint too
If a UK wide vote to leave does occur and FM Nippy Sweetie still has her fingers on the control knobs of Holyrood, she would certainly want Scotland to have another Indy Ref because the Scots are generally perceived to be more EU friendly.
I dont understand this bit. The SNP wanted to leave the UK, the EU told them categorically that doing so would require a new application to rejoin the EU, so they would by leaving the UK de facto leave the EU. If the UK left the EU due to an act passing parliament, and the Scots voted to leave the UK, they would still be outside the EU, there isn't a circumstance here where Scotland stays in the EU if the UK does not.
There was never any categorical statement from the EU, which insisted that only the respective member government, ie the UK, could ask for, and be given, such a statement. And of course that was the last thing Mr Cameron and his Labour allies wanted to do, keen as they were on maximising uncertainty and doubt in indyref.
You are also perhaps forgetting the time factor. It would need say 2-3 years to leave the EU, so there isn't any instant departure from the EU.
It was Salmond who was keenest to muddy the waters with his infamous non-existent legal advice on EU membership.
Lol, keep squirming and turning and spouting lies.
It's a bit more subtle than that because Cameron's setting up a referendum based his "renegotiation", which will consist of a bunch of reforms that will be over-promised and never delivered. Three years after the referendum with no sign of the thing people voted on actually happening, UKIP might have a decent case for running for election on "This is bullshit, let's just leave".
Nevertheless, I suspect skipping a referendum, if they only got (say) 35% of the vote, would probably lead to the break-up of the Union. If pretty much every Scottish MP (for example) was pro-EU (as looks likely) and they chose to take the Scotland out of the EU, and against (say) a 60:40 in vote in Scotland, I can't see them choosing to stay in the UK. Likewise, if London voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, and for pro-EU parties, I think that would look similarly horrible.
I really think that something of the magnitude of leaving the EU has to be done through a referendum. Of course, if UKIP were to get 40-45% of the vote, or if there were "out" parties with 50+% of the vote, then it would be less problematic. But a 35% UKIP vote putting through "out" legislation without a referendum would be explosive - just as the SNP passing UDI would be.
Referendum or not, I'd say the UK leaving the EU would lead to the break-up of the Union in any case...
That said, I think UKIP would have a referendum.
In the 1974 common market entry referendum Scotland was markedly more eurosceptical than England. I think you're overestimating Scottish europhilia. Leaving the EU would arguably strengthen the Union.
Come out of your crypt more often, times have changed since 1974.
What does UK law say about the need for a referendum to exit? I assume a government (with a mandate / manifesto pledge) could just exit. We got to where we are today without any referendums since the 1970s. I presume we could quite legally just turn the clock back without a referendum. But I'm not a constitutional lawyer!
Quite simple really, a government achieves a Bill through both Houses (unless a Manifesto commitment in which case Parliament Act applies and Lords neutered) declaring that on a specific date the UK will leave the EU, that is that. Clearly there would be arguments with Brussels about money but we would leave.
Referenda have no status in UK Constitutional Law unless Parliament creates it for them.
If a UK wide vote to leave does occur and FM Nippy Sweetie still has her fingers on the control knobs of Holyrood, she would certainly want Scotland to have another Indy Ref because the Scots are generally perceived to be more EU friendly.
I see the Tories get ever more childish and petulant, as they circle the drain , with their pathetic name calling. Can you not just act like an adult and say Nicola Sturgeon.
When is flag gate and Klass War likely to filter through to the polling? We have been assured that they were both disasters for Ed. Presumably they just "feed the meme"?
Its going to be really interesting to see how the polls in the latter stages of the GE campaign compare with those taken in the immediate aftermath of the Indy Referendum up here in Scotland.
Miss Fitalass, I pity the pollsters trying to predict the 2015 result. Whilst Scotland seems likely to change a lot, that's a straightforward Party B winning, Party A losing scenario. In England, and maybe Wales, we could get some very odd results indeed.
Another day and another person proving that "too many tweets make a t##t". Strange how the Guardian / BBC aren't at all interested in this latest twitter story, normally somebody sneezes on twitter and they are all over it.
If a UK wide vote to leave does occur and FM Nippy Sweetie still has her fingers on the control knobs of Holyrood, she would certainly want Scotland to have another Indy Ref because the Scots are generally perceived to be more EU friendly.
I dont understand this bit. The SNP wanted to leave the UK, the EU told them categorically that doing so would require a new application to rejoin the EU, so they would by leaving the UK de facto leave the EU. If the UK left the EU due to an act passing parliament, and the Scots voted to leave the UK, they would still be outside the EU, there isn't a circumstance here where Scotland stays in the EU if the UK does not.
Actually, it might make life very simple. If Scotland wanted independence and to stay in the EU, then it could be the 'continuing entity' and carry over Britain's opt-outs, with its exit from the UK and the UK's exit from the EU happening simultaneously.
I very much doubt rUK would agree to Scotland being the 'continuator state'.....and give up its seat on the Security Council and so forth. The state which joined the EU - the UK - would leave - and if Scotland wished to re-join that would be up to it.
LOL , Thick Tory does not get it, you seriously think EU would just say, "London doesn't want it so we will just kick Scotland out". What a nasty two faced piece of work you are.
If a UK wide vote to leave does occur and FM Nippy Sweetie still has her fingers on the control knobs of Holyrood, she would certainly want Scotland to have another Indy Ref because the Scots are generally perceived to be more EU friendly.
I dont understand this bit. The SNP wanted to leave the UK, the EU told them categorically that doing so would require a new application to rejoin the EU, so they would by leaving the UK de facto leave the EU. If the UK left the EU due to an act passing parliament, and the Scots voted to leave the UK, they would still be outside the EU, there isn't a circumstance here where Scotland stays in the EU if the UK does not.
Actually, it might make life very simple. If Scotland wanted independence and to stay in the EU, then it could be the 'continuing entity' and carry over Britain's opt-outs, with its exit from the UK and the UK's exit from the EU happening simultaneously.
I very much doubt rUK would agree to Scotland being the 'continuator state'.....and give up its seat on the Security Council and so forth. The state which joined the EU - the UK - would leave - and if Scotland wished to re-join that would be up to it.
I dont follow this bit, how does the UK dealing with the EU affect its dealing with the UN?
Tell you what Malcolm, why don't you lead by example and try to refrain from pathetic name calling of other posters on this site even for one day? Its not hard, and most posters on here manage it on a daily basis with no problems at all.
What does UK law say about the need for a referendum to exit? I assume a government (with a mandate / manifesto pledge) could just exit. We got to where we are today without any referendums since the 1970s. I presume we could quite legally just turn the clock back without a referendum. But I'm not a constitutional lawyer!
Quite simple really, a government achieves a Bill through both Houses (unless a Manifesto commitment in which case Parliament Act applies and Lords neutered) declaring that on a specific date the UK will leave the EU, that is that. Clearly there would be arguments with Brussels about money but we would leave.
Referenda have no status in UK Constitutional Law unless Parliament creates it for them.
If a UK wide vote to leave does occur and FM Nippy Sweetie still has her fingers on the control knobs of Holyrood, she would certainly want Scotland to have another Indy Ref because the Scots are generally perceived to be more EU friendly.
I see the Tories get ever more childish and petulant, as they circle the drain , with their pathetic name calling. Can you not just act like an adult and say Nicola Sturgeon.
Revised ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 23rd November, including the YouGov Sun on Sunday. 11 polls with total weighted sample of 15,193:
As I said last night: Cross-over ever so closer, but no cigar! Con edge up slowly but surely, for third week in a row UKIP down slightly, but down for third week in a row LDs on lowest score yet in ELBOW (ie. since 17th August) Lab hovering around 33% for the last five weeks
We only sold O2 under huge duress at the time - we were right in the clarts debt wise and it was the most lucrative thing we had to flog off. It also took the massive auction bill with it.
I remember it vividly and talking to our Corp Strategy team about it - we all knew it was the wrong long term decision - but we needed to sell some family silver.
Mr Moderator, is “malcolmg” keot in a virtual cage and only allowed out a couple of times a thread to post insults? Sort of reverse feeding! If so, when is his (presumably) re-education likely to be complete so that he's allowed out to post sensible arguments?
dan H has found a nice photo of Mr. Reckless and is trolling for kippers today.
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
dan H has found a nice photo of Mr. Reckless and is trolling for kippers today.
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
God, Hodges even annoys the pants off me when he's attacking UKIP.
When is flag gate and Klass War likely to filter through to the polling? We have been assured that they were both disasters for Ed. Presumably they just "feed the meme"?
Worth remembering that "Bigot-gate" in 2010 had no effect on the Labour vote in that constituency.
The only 2 interesting things about it are that it has (a) shown a certain febrility within Labour politicians about how they're perceived; and (b) amused those of us who enjoyed the spectacle of Labour hoist on its own" identity politics/don't say that - I'm offended" petard.
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
God, Hodges even annoys the pants off me when he's attacking UKIP.
Every morning Hodges flips a coin to decide if he's going to run an attack piece on Miliband or Farage.
Twitter YouGov @YouGov 7m7 minutes ago Peter Kellner: Nigel Farage’s lasting contribution to Britain’s political system could be to make it more European http://y-g.co/1r158ow
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
That's the genius, you only have to make the first one then they are self-replicating.
But what happens when they go all Skynet?
Don't worry, they would be Labour-designed. They'll run massively over budget, be years late, never actually work, and end up being scrapped before they are deployed.
'When is flag gate and Klass War likely to filter through to the polling? We have been assured that they were both disasters for Ed. Presumably they just "feed the meme"?'
Had you forgotten that last week was Ed's re-launch number nine plus a really disastrous week for the Tories when they lost Rochester,and at best Labour's polling has flat lined.
Sometimes our leaders have to lead. They show a way ahead that the public would ordinarily baulk at. Cameron has been a leader on gay marriage, something which I strongly expect to be a huge shrug of the shoulders within 5 years, when people will wonder what all the fuss was about. The linkage of foreign aid to set % of GDP is heavily unpopular, but we are better as a nation for making that contribution (even though we may have legitimate qualms about how some of it is spent).
Well, there's democracy disposed of in one pithy paragraph. Government by clique.
It's too early in the morning to start a food fight, but borrowing money to just give it away to foreigners is absurd. If Cameron and his liberal clique care so much about poverty, they can give their own money away. I think it is Cameron just paying his buddies who work for foreign aid charities on £50k a year.
It's not "giving it away"
It's an attempt to fix the causes of, e.g. mass migration, rather than just address the symptoms when they arrive on our doorsteps
What, by blasting Indians into space?
And what "symptoms" were in Poland that foreign aid has rectified? Catholicism?
That's the genius, you only have to make the first one then they are self-replicating.
But what happens when they go all Skynet?
Don't worry, they would be Labour-designed. They'll run massively over budget, be years late, never actually work, and end up being scrapped before they are deployed.
If a UK wide vote to leave does occur and FM Nippy Sweetie still has her fingers on the control knobs of Holyrood, she would certainly want Scotland to have another Indy Ref because the Scots are generally perceived to be more EU friendly.
I dont understand this bit. The SNP wanted to leave the UK, the EU told them categorically that doing so would require a new application to rejoin the EU, so they would by leaving the UK de facto leave the EU. If the UK left the EU due to an act passing parliament, and the Scots voted to leave the UK, they would still be outside the EU, there isn't a circumstance here where Scotland stays in the EU if the UK does not.
There was never any categorical statement from the EU, which insisted that only the respective member government, ie the UK, could ask for, and be given, such a statement. And of course that was the last thing Mr Cameron and his Labour allies wanted to do, keen as they were on maximising uncertainty and doubt in indyref.
You are also perhaps forgetting the time factor. It would need say 2-3 years to leave the EU, so there isn't any instant departure from the EU.
It was Salmond who was keenest to muddy the waters with his infamous non-existent legal advice on EU membership.
Do we have to post the letter again? The EC has repeatedly said that only if asked by a competent member of standing (i.e. the UK government) will it look into what it would mean for Scotland to become independent vis EU membership)
No, it has not said that. What it has said is that it cannot give a formal opinion unless asked to do so. It has made clear on a number of occasions that the issue has been looked at and that the conclusion is that if there is a vote to secede from a member state that automatically leads to secession from the EU.
When is flag gate and Klass War likely to filter through to the polling? We have been assured that they were both disasters for Ed. Presumably they just "feed the meme"?
How are Ed's satisfaction ratings, or perceived ability to be PM. Those would probably be more appropriate metrics to keep an eye on.
Perhaps the most noticeable feature of that chart is its stability. For all the disasters, idiotic speeches, tweets, by election results and general noise things are only changing very slowly. If the tories are to get a majority they need to speed up a bit.
It's a bit more subtle than that because Cameron's setting up a referendum based his "renegotiation", which will consist of a bunch of reforms that will be over-promised and never delivered. Three years after the referendum with no sign of the thing people voted on actually happening, UKIP might have a decent case for running for election on "This is bullshit, let's just leave".
Nevertheless, I suspect skipping a referendum, if they only got (say) 35% of the vote, would probably lead to the break-up of the Union. If pretty much every Scottish MP (for example) was pro-EU (as looks likely) and they chose to take the Scotland out of the EU, and against (say) a 60:40 in vote in Scotland, I can't see them choosing to stay in the UK. Likewise, if London voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, and for pro-EU parties, I think that would look similarly horrible.
I really think that something of the magnitude of leaving the EU has to be done through a referendum. Of course, if UKIP were to get 40-45% of the vote, or if there were "out" parties with 50+% of the vote, then it would be less problematic. But a 35% UKIP vote putting through "out" legislation without a referendum would be explosive - just as the SNP passing UDI would be.
Referendum or not, I'd say the UK leaving the EU would lead to the break-up of the Union in any case...
That said, I think UKIP would have a referendum.
In the 1974 common market entry referendum Scotland was markedly more eurosceptic than England. I think your overestimating Scottish europhilia. Leaving the EU would arguably strengthen the Union.
Using data from 40 years ago doesn't help your argument.
The latest polling is showing completely the opposite, pretty consistently.
From yesterday:
stay/leave: OA: 40/41 Scot: 59/22
Now it is a 'Scottish subsample' - but that's quite a gap.......
I'm not sure if you have forgotten the events of the last two years so soon. To refresh your memory, you only need to do a google over indyref - for instance a search of Wings over Scotland (who is pretty good for coverage and for linking to back up his assertions). The Wee Blue Book is a good start, not least because he tends to cite pro-Union sources, so he ought to be acceptable to you. However, it was one of the crowdfunded polls done at his behest that helped confirm the gap.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
In other words intended to be offensive to females.
That's the genius, you only have to make the first one then they are self-replicating.
But what happens when they go all Skynet?
Don't worry, they would be Labour-designed. They'll run massively over budget, be years late, never actually work, and end up being scrapped before they are deployed.
Like
You forgot the bit about emitting a continuous whining sound when near "class enemies" like Tories, patriots, people who drive white vans, moderately successful mixed race popstars that question the dear leader and so forth
It's a bit more subtle than that because Cameron's setting up a referendum based his "renegotiation", which will consist of a bunch of reforms that will be over-promised and never delivered. Three years after the referendum with no sign of the thing people voted on actually happening, UKIP might have a decent case for running for election on "This is bullshit, let's just leave".
Nevertheless, I suspect skipping a referendum, if they only got (say) 35% of the vote, would probably lead to the break-up of the Union. If pretty much every Scottish MP (for example) was pro-EU (as looks likely) and they chose to take the Scotland out of the EU, and against (say) a 60:40 in vote in Scotland, I can't see them choosing to stay in the UK. Likewise, if London voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, and for pro-EU parties, I think that would look similarly horrible.
I really think that something of the magnitude of leaving the EU has to be done through a referendum. Of course, if UKIP were to get 40-45% of the vote, or if there were "out" parties with 50+% of the vote, then it would be less problematic. But a 35% UKIP vote putting through "out" legislation without a referendum would be explosive - just as the SNP passing UDI would be.
Referendum or not, I'd say the UK leaving the EU would lead to the break-up of the Union in any case...
That said, I think UKIP would have a referendum.
In the 1974 common market entry referendum Scotland was markedly more eurosceptical than England. I think you're overestimating Scottish europhilia. Leaving the EU would arguably strengthen the Union.
It's not just Europhilia although that's part of it. It also means: 1) Assuming Salmond can wangle another referendum he'll be able to deploy FUD as well as fend it off. You'll get unpredictable changes either way. 2) A Scotland in the EU while rUK was out would be attractive to English companies that still want to be in the EU. 3) The EU will be much more cooperative...
Mr Salmond is no longer running the SNP, of course. But that is a mere detail: apart from that, quite so.
You might also add another implication of the fact that events don't happen in isolation. A UK leaving the EU will almost by definition be run by a Tory/UKIP (or similar) dominated coalition, with Labour defeated yet again, and that will also have a bearing on thinking amongst voters north of the border.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
In other words intended to be offensive to females.
By no means necessarily so. I can't speak for everyone, but in the contexts I've heard it, it can be one of respect. There's something in many Scots which makes them more comfortable with such an upfront manner than something more manipulative ('sleekit'). Elaine C. Smith defines it pretty positively but possibly with some irony as a 'woman not to be taken lightly' in her book Nothing like a dame. And this may amuse
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO8Qps5ZYzM
On the other hand, other folk seem to use it with a different meaning, and on reflection it's not something I would risk using.
It's nothing to do with xenophobia, by the way. Comes from nippy as sharp, tart: cf. 'Nip in the air' for a frosty morning with a bit of crispness. Or sour vs sweet - like some sweeties.
Revised ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 23rd November, including the YouGov Sun on Sunday. 11 polls with total weighted sample of 15,193:
As I said last night: Cross-over ever so closer, but no cigar! Con edge up slowly but surely, for third week in a row UKIP down slightly, but down for third week in a row LDs on lowest score yet in ELBOW (ie. since 17th August) Lab hovering around 33% for the last five weeks
Was it all you were hoping for?
Yes, pretty much. As I pointed out a couple of days ago, the Tories need to gain an average of approx 0.6% per month at Labour's expense in the five and a half moths leading up to the GE to secure a majority. A big call for sure, but broadly what they have achieved over the past six months, plus some, including yours truly, believe that the Blues will also capture a proportion of the UKIP vote at or prior to the General Election - probably not a large element of their support, but the odd 1% - 2% off their share of the vote could prove decisive in terms of the overall result. Exciting times ahead, possibly.
I think both punter and bookie is screwed in this situation. My reaction of a week or two ago has been to paper Edinburgh and Glasgow with SNP wins in the hope that continued high national SNP polling causes their price to collapse.
My goodness, the frothers are out in force on Hodges article. Exhibit 1: Hodges is a disgrace to Journalism, a raving lunatic Marxist writing in the Torygrapth, this says everything about what is wrong with the DT and British Establishment in general when anti British Lefty fools like Hodges have free reign to promote their vile agenda without fear of sanction or consequence." Exhibit 2: That is a lie Dan Hodges and you know it is a lie. Your dishonesty would be breath-taking were it not for the fact of your socialist upbringing. I am sick of reading your lies, as if the lies of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg weren't enough. Exhibit 3: Fat wench, camp as a row of tents, one-eyed. <-- I have no idea. Haiku?
Can I back myself at 100/1 to win Islington South & Finsbury please?
You have cut UKIP to 33s from 100s but the oddschecker liability chart says all bets have been on the Lib Dems
You've got the gig? Congratulations!
No I haven't!
I have applied that's all, I suppose I am backing the double of me getting the gig then winning the seat, unless Shadsy wants to show that not all bookies are tight fisted meanies by laying the 100/1 he was on Friday???
iSam - in light of recent events, what about a double or quits bet: if EdM gets under 50% in Doncaster and you become UKIP MP for Islington South, I'll buy you breakfast and lunch; if he gets over 50% and you are not elected I get breakfast and lunch. If it is one of each we are off the hook to each other.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
Interesting that Ladbrokes forecast the near obliteration of the LDs in Scotland, from the rise of the SNP. They forecast relatively few losses from SLAB to SNP. If there is any value it is somewhere amongst the SLAB seats that they do not forecast moving to SNP. Overall good news for EdM.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
In other words intended to be offensive to females.
By no means necessarily so. I can't speak for everyone, but in the contexts I've heard it, it can be one of respect. There's something in many Scots which makes them more comfortable with such an upfront manner than something more manipulative ('sleekit'). Elaine C. Smith defines it pretty positively but possibly with some irony as a 'woman not to be taken lightly' in her book Nothing like a dame. And this may amuse
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO8Qps5ZYzM
On the other hand, other folk seem to use it with a different meaning, and on reflection it's not something I would risk using.
It's nothing to do with xenophobia, by the way. Comes from nippy as sharp, tart: cf. 'Nip in the air' for a frosty morning with a bit of crispness. Or sour vs sweet - like some sweeties.
"A woman nor to be taken lightly" sounds good, and about right from what I’ve seen of Ms S. Much obliged.
It would describe, too, I think my three Scots-born (and sounding) nieces! When one of them is in a good mood, I’ll inquire.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
No you didn't quote me directly, but Ladbrokes were 100/1 UKIP on Friday, and cut it to 33/1 Saturday
If I am the candidate & you have laid 100/1 it would be big publicity for you during the campaign, which would mean you get kickback even if I were to win
Tell you what Malcolm, why don't you lead by example and try to refrain from pathetic name calling of other posters on this site even for one day? Its not hard, and most posters on here manage it on a daily basis with no problems at all.
What does UK law say about the need for a referendum to exit? I assume a government (with a mandate / manifesto pledge) could just exit. We got to where we are today without any referendums since the 1970s. I presume we could quite legally just turn the clock back without a referendum. But I'm not a constitutional lawyer!
Quite simple really, a government achieves a Bill through both Houses (unless a Manifesto commitment in which case Parliament Act applies and Lords neutered) declaring that on a specific date the UK will leave the EU, that is that. Clearly there would be arguments with Brussels about money but we would leave.
Referenda have no status in UK Constitutional Law unless Parliament creates it for them.
If a UK wide vote to leave does occur and FM Nippy Sweetie still has her fingers on the control knobs of Holyrood, she would certainly want Scotland to have another Indy Ref because the Scots are generally perceived to be more EU friendly.
I see the Tories get ever more childish and petulant, as they circle the drain , with their pathetic name calling. Can you not just act like an adult and say Nicola Sturgeon.
Perhaps if the Tories started posting reality I would not have to. Blatantly posting misleading information is underhand and shifty.
It will be interesting to see the Ashcroft poll later – this seems to have overcome its volatility issues which afflicted it in the early days. Keen to see what the combined effect of Rochester and the White Van thing is. My best guess is they will cancel each other out.
Populus was decent for Labour earlier, but was probably an outlier.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
No you didn't quote me directly, but Ladbrokes were 100/1 UKIP on Friday, and cut it to 33/1 Saturday
If I am the candidate & you have laid 100/1 it would be big publicity for you during the campaign, which would mean you get kickback even if I were to win
£50?
I'd have thought £50 on SAM winning Islington South could be a fair compromise...
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
As you would expect from a Tory on the SNP it is a derogatory name, very poor indeed.
Western isles and Orkney/Shetland have different political geography methinks.
In fairness the western Isles used to be a part of Ross Cromerty & Skye which is Charlie country. So the Lib Dems have a base of sorts. But they will be looking to hang on to some of what they have got this time around.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
Could UKIP honestly win Islington south - it must be a true chance of way less than 1% given the demographics etc... Even if you were to offer 100-1 I wouldn't back it there.
Mr Moderator, is “malcolmg” keot in a virtual cage and only allowed out a couple of times a thread to post insults? Sort of reverse feeding! If so, when is his (presumably) re-education likely to be complete so that he's allowed out to post sensible arguments?
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
As you would expect from a Tory on the SNP it is a derogatory name, very poor indeed.
And it seems like only last week that you called someone a 'dozy mare'. Oh wait, it was.
Blatantly posting misleading information is underhand and shifty.
How can it be both blatant and underhand?
Another thick Tory I see. Blatant insult to the FM of Scotland from a Tory who would not refer to the Tory sock puppet in the same terms. Underhand because he constantly goes on about posting truth and justice and niceties.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
In other words intended to be offensive to females.
By no means necessarily so. I can't speak for everyone, but in the contexts I've heard it, it can be one of respect. There's something in many Scots which makes them more comfortable with such an upfront manner than something more manipulative ('sleekit'). Elaine C. Smith defines it pretty positively but possibly with some irony as a 'woman not to be taken lightly' in her book Nothing like a dame. And this may amuse
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO8Qps5ZYzM
On the other hand, other folk seem to use it with a different meaning, and on reflection it's not something I would risk using.
It's nothing to do with xenophobia, by the way. Comes from nippy as sharp, tart: cf. 'Nip in the air' for a frosty morning with a bit of crispness. Or sour vs sweet - like some sweeties.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
Could UKIP honestly win Islington south - it must be a true chance of way less than 1% given the demographics etc... Even if you were to offer 100-1 I wouldn't back it there.
In Islington South, I think Labour has done the incredible double act of sending metropolitan Lefties to the LibDems, and traditional voters to UKIP. The 'bar' for winning Islington South might be lower than people think.
While I wouldn't be betting on UKIP at 33/1 (or at least not for more than a purely speculative £5), I think 100/1 would be very generous.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
As you would expect from a Tory on the SNP it is a derogatory name, very poor indeed.
And it seems like only last week that you called someone a 'dozy mare'. Oh wait, it was.
Time to crawl back into your cave.
Yes a man you turnip , hardly similar and a poster on here not the FM. Got yourself a new cardboard box yet.
Can I back myself at 100/1 to win Islington South & Finsbury please?
You have cut UKIP to 33s from 100s but the oddschecker liability chart says all bets have been on the Lib Dems
You've got the gig? Congratulations!
No I haven't!
I have applied that's all, I suppose I am backing the double of me getting the gig then winning the seat, unless Shadsy wants to show that not all bookies are tight fisted meanies by laying the 100/1 he was on Friday???
Nobody would like to see you win it more than me, Isam, but even I have to say that 100/1 UKIP to win Islington South is none too generous a price, even with a sterling candidate like yourself opposing the hapless Emily van Thornbury.
If Shadsy doesn't take you on, he's not got the cojones I thought he had.
I see, Mr G. You describe "Nippy Sweetie" as an insult, especially to Ms Sturgeon, whereas Camyx quoted a definition which suggested it wasn’t. Particularly, anyway.
I must say, I thought it read as though it was intended to be offensive, especially as it has the same initials.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that. Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
Could UKIP honestly win Islington south - it must be a true chance of way less than 1% given the demographics etc... Even if you were to offer 100-1 I wouldn't back it there.
In Islington South, I think Labour has done the incredible double act of sending metropolitan Lefties to the LibDems, and traditional voters to UKIP. The 'bar' for winning Islington South might be lower than people think.
In Islington South Labour won every seat going in May and thrashed the Lib Dems in the process. Hardly anyone voted UKIP because they only managed, I think, 1 candidate across the entire constituency. I'd be surprised if Labour's vote share didnt increase next May.
Just for the interests of clarity for those wondering about Easterrosses phrase "nippy sweetie", According to the Gurdian this is a Scottish description – largely used by men, about women – for a spiky and sharp-tongued woman.
As you would expect from a Tory on the SNP it is a derogatory name, very poor indeed.
And it seems like only last week that you called someone a 'dozy mare'. Oh wait, it was.
Time to crawl back into your cave.
Yes a man you turnip , hardly similar and a poster on here not the FM. Got yourself a new cardboard box yet.
No, you described Myleene Klass as such. Here's your post from November 18th.
"malcolmg said: » show previous quotes Whilst Ed is still crap , it did show how out of touch Tories are in this country, the dozy mare did not even have the brains to realise that the majority of people struggle to survive rather than paying £2 million for garages. Thick as mince z lister Tory.'
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30174650
The falling oil price is costing Russia up to $100bn a year, while Western sanctions have hit the country by $40bn, its finance minister has said.
Lab 33.4% (-0.1)
Con 32.9% (+0.8)
UKIP 15.3% (-0.2)
LD 7.1% (-0.7)
Lab lead 0.5% (-0.9)
Changes from the first ever ELBOW on 17th August:
Lab -2.8%
Con -0.3%
UKIP +2.2%
LD -1.7%
Lab lead -2.5% (ie. was 3.0% now 0.5%)
As I said last night:
Cross-over ever so closer, but no cigar!
Con edge up slowly but surely, for third week in a row
UKIP down slightly, but down for third week in a row
LDs on lowest score yet in ELBOW (ie. since 17th August)
Lab hovering around 33% for the last five weeks
Was it all you were hoping for?
I remember it vividly and talking to our Corp Strategy team about it - we all knew it was the wrong long term decision - but we needed to sell some family silver.
If so, when is his (presumably) re-education likely to be complete so that he's allowed out to post sensible arguments?
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England
Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England
Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England
Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Dan Hodges@DPJHodges·52 mins52 minutes ago London, England
Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
Now we know. Ukip believe in repatriation, the purest form of political racism. They must be fought > Telegraph > http://tinyurl.com/o449hsg
The only 2 interesting things about it are that it has (a) shown a certain febrility within Labour politicians about how they're perceived; and (b) amused those of us who enjoyed the spectacle of Labour hoist on its own" identity politics/don't say that - I'm offended" petard.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 2m 2 minutes ago
Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 23rd Nov. Lab 33.4%, Con 32.9%, UKIP 15.3%, LD 7.1%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/536882999305179136
@LabourList: Labour will meet industry demand by creating more engineers by 2020 http://t.co/kqbcZPJHzr
Reposting the same thing 5 times !
YouGov @YouGov 7m7 minutes ago
Peter Kellner: Nigel Farage’s lasting contribution to Britain’s political system could be to make it more European http://y-g.co/1r158ow
'When is flag gate and Klass War likely to filter through to the polling? We have been assured that they were both disasters for Ed. Presumably they just "feed the meme"?'
Had you forgotten that last week was Ed's re-launch number nine plus a really disastrous week for the Tories when they lost Rochester,and at best Labour's polling has flat lined.
And what "symptoms" were in Poland that foreign aid has rectified? Catholicism?
i) if it has the Tories ahead then it is the gold standard of polling
ii) if it has Lab with an increasing lead then it is a clear outlier and Ashcroft is back to being a random number generator.
iii) if it has the Blues, Reds and purples in the 20s then eventually Labour will end up in third place soon
http://politicalbookie.com/2014/11/24/snp-now-favourites-to-win-most-scottish-seats/
You might also add another implication of the fact that events don't happen in isolation. A UK leaving the EU will almost by definition be run by a Tory/UKIP (or similar) dominated coalition, with Labour defeated yet again, and that will also have a bearing on thinking amongst voters north of the border.
You heard it hear first.
Edit. Predictive text doesn't like the proper name for the Western Isles.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO8Qps5ZYzM
On the other hand, other folk seem to use it with a different meaning, and on reflection it's not something I would risk using.
It's nothing to do with xenophobia, by the way. Comes from nippy as sharp, tart: cf. 'Nip in the air' for a frosty morning with a bit of crispness. Or sour vs sweet - like some sweeties.
Can I back myself at 100/1 to win Islington South & Finsbury please?
You have cut UKIP to 33s from 100s but the oddschecker liability chart says all bets have been on the Lib Dems
Racism towards people of the same race based on something other than their race is lefty bullshit at its worst
Exhibit 1: Hodges is a disgrace to Journalism, a raving lunatic Marxist writing in the Torygrapth, this says everything about what is wrong with the DT and British Establishment in general when anti British Lefty fools like Hodges have free reign to promote their vile agenda without fear of sanction or consequence."
Exhibit 2: That is a lie Dan Hodges and you know it is a lie. Your dishonesty would be breath-taking were it not for the fact of your socialist upbringing. I am sick of reading your lies, as if the lies of Cameron, Miliband and Clegg weren't enough.
Exhibit 3: Fat wench, camp as a row of tents, one-eyed. <-- I have no idea. Haiku?
I'd offer you it myself, but don't actually have enough to cover the liability ^_~
Interesting markets here might be:
UKIP vs Green match bet
UKIP vs Lib Dems match bet.
UKIP to save deposit
UKIP vs Conservative match bet.
I have applied that's all, I suppose I am backing the double of me getting the gig then winning the seat, unless Shadsy wants to show that not all bookies are tight fisted meanies by laying the 100/1 he was on Friday???
Couldn't be fairer,could it? :-)
I mean, really... Labour Most Scottish seats at a GE? Evens???
What makes this an even nicer bet is the long-odds SNP constituency bets already in the portfolio.
Did I really quote 100/1? Must have had too many glasses of sherry, don't remember that.
Those oddschecker pie charts don't mean anything; at least they certainly bear no relationship to the number of bets we take.
It would describe, too, I think my three Scots-born (and sounding) nieces! When one of them is in a good mood, I’ll inquire.
Part of the evidence against the then-Oldham East and Saddleworth MP was an email from Mr Fitzpatrick urging him to ‘get the white folk angry’.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/former-agent-shamed-labour-mp-8153294
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/islington-s-and-finsbury/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today
If I am the candidate & you have laid 100/1 it would be big publicity for you during the campaign, which would mean you get kickback even if I were to win
£50?
Taken £40 at evens myself.
But anyway. Not a chance. Hard pushed to come 3rd.
Western isles and Orkney/Shetland have different political geography methinks.
It will be interesting to see the Ashcroft poll later – this seems to have overcome its volatility issues which afflicted it in the early days. Keen to see what the combined effect of Rochester and the White Van thing is. My best guess is they will cancel each other out.
Populus was decent for Labour earlier, but was probably an outlier.
Good luck with application then!
http://tinyurl.com/pxzaygx
Gordon'sThe SDP's alive???http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_(UK,_1990–present)
Time to crawl back into your cave.
I think we've reached peak SNP in betting terms now tbh.
While I wouldn't be betting on UKIP at 33/1 (or at least not for more than a purely speculative £5), I think 100/1 would be very generous.
If Shadsy doesn't take you on, he's not got the cojones I thought he had.
I must say, I thought it read as though it was intended to be offensive, especially as it has the same initials.
Mansion tax latest.
"malcolmg said:
» show previous quotes
Whilst Ed is still crap , it did show how out of touch Tories are in this country, the dozy mare did not even have the brains to realise that the majority of people struggle to survive rather than paying £2 million for garages. Thick as mince z lister Tory.'