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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The National Theatre’s production “This House” – a taste of
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The National Theatre’s production “This House” – a taste of what happens with minority government
Suddenly people are talking about a possible minority government after the general election because of the way the maths appear at the moment. With the polls looking so tight with UKIP and the SNP expected to have much bigger contingents at Westminster it’s quite likely that neither LAB or CON will secure a majority and a future coalition very difficult to achieve.
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"Seven years ago the brilliant pollster and Blairite Establishment figure Peter Kellner (a longstanding Labour Party member) told me at a public debate: ‘I think it’s really important that the Conservative Party does survive as a substantial brand, because there will always be a need for a centre-Right party.’
Need? I wondered as he spoke, who exactly needs it? Why does a lifelong Lefty like Mr Kellner wish to save the Tories?
Mr Kellner read my mind and continued: ‘If the Conservatives were to go the way that Peter expects (and I think possibly would relish), I am frightened as to what kind of Right-of- centre politics would then spring up…
‘One of the great virtues of British politics… is that we have not had a substantial far-Right nationalist xenophobic party in Britain.
‘A substantial Conservative Party is our best bulwark against the kind of politics that I think could become very nasty.’
When Mr Kellner uses terms such as ‘far-Right nationalist xenophobic’, he means a party that would be hostile to the European Union’s control of our Government, laws and borders. The British Left have for many years seen Brussels as the way to turn Britain into the sort of country they want, by the back door...
The Tory Party has helped the Left for decades. It has blocked the creation of a strong pro-British parliamentary force. It has done so by pretending to love Britain when it doesn’t. Its every pose is a fake. All its principal figures are fakes as well. And they have got away with it....
This weekend, for the first time, I begin to have a very faint hope that they have finally seen through the Tory fraud. Rochester has shown that a pro-British rebellion against the Tories could, if properly handled, sweep the country, elbowing Labour aside as it does so.
What I hope for is what the Establishment fear."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2845812/PETER-HITCHENS-night-fleet-Tory-snake-oil-tankers-sailed-Rochester-sank.html
If anyone wants to buy me a Christmas gift....
"The Left across Europe has been seduced by the EU’s promise of workers’ rights – forgetting that you can’t enjoy those rights if you don’t have a job to begin with."
Quite so and a good observation. That's why vodka is so cheap in Russia.
Controversial legislation like an EU referendum will be mangled or blocked.
New leaderships and new elections may just repeat the deadlock.
It will be like Italy without the sunshine.
No. You have a bad leader, bad advisers, bad party management and bad policies.
Apart from that...
@JohnRentoul: EdM sacked Thornberry for patronising working class & then did it himself. My column for @IndyOnSunday http://t.co/wWMNM5cg2t
Lucy Powell, 'for the win...'
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/rochester-byelection-a-little-respect-goes-a-long-way-ed-miliband-9877702.html
The Tories aren't toxic because of being right wing, but because they're seen as the party of the upper class.
In fact, government, as opposed to the government, was stable. The coalitions were basically the same and government departments were parcelled out to members of the coalition.
Perhaps those pro-European Lib Dems should have paid more attention.
The sudden collapse of this system after enduring so many years is a lesson for the major parties in the UK.
Marr points out she has been holding the graph on net migration upside down!!
It’s eerily reminescent of the Roger McGough poem.
“I want to be the leader.
I want to be the leader.
Can I be the leader?
Can I?
Promise? Promise?
Yippee! I’m the leader!
I am the leader.
What shall we do?”
It's not quite a class thing. I don't masquerade as a working-class bloke, but I'm happy to chat on an equal basis to anyone and I'm open to learn about the realities of life in a tough world where I can, within the limits of my generally Guaradianish world view. I find people are OK with that - I don't get active anti-intellectual never-seen-you-with-a-pint reactions. If you're genuine and friendly that'll do.
Presumably the same sort of conversation goes on in Tory-Kipper encounters. But it's one reason why the weak Tory ground game is a problem for them - they just aren't identifying the waverers as effectively, because just throwing glossy leaflets and emails at voters Does Not Work with Kippers.
Still collecting signatures.
She has been very quiet since her £2m garage nonsense
Where he is getting help is that the EIC theme is now so built in that yet further manifestations of it does not seem to be hurting the Labour vote much. It is certainly not helping the Tories who are seeing these votes drift off elsewhere. Will that remain the case as the election gets closer or will the traditional squeeze be applied to the minor parties? For me that is becoming the key question for the next election.
Alternatively, UKIP will be given a monumental kicking by everyone for allowing Ed to get into power and feck things up again. Buyers Remorse will be the big theme the media will be running with.
Nice
But I do not think that this is such a period. Economically the world is uncertain, with the Eurozone stagnant, Japan back in recession and both the USA and China needing continuous fiscal stimulus.
The deficit is not going down, and I cannot see that getting better without major cuts to the welfare budget and also tax rises. A new period of mid seventies style government would not be a good one.
Miliband has wasted his blank sheet of paper. Leaving a political vacuum is unwise, as politics also abhors a vacuum.
Mr. Owls, I'd guess the ban the petition to ban Myleene Klass petition is also getting more votes. Some people are rather over-sensitive.
"Gasp! This woman holds a political opinion which differs from my own! Burn the witch!"
Which is why it is so interesting that one media company is having a second Sauline conversion and producing a pro-indy daily newspaper after finding that the Sunday Herald circulation went up 110% or so after changing to an approach which didn't treat half of Scots as subversives bent on destroying the UK and the rest as idiots who only read one side of the story. They're printing 50K copies for the pilot scheme - interesting to see if 1% of the population buy them.
[Edit: as almost 2% are SNP members now, that may be a bit pessimistic!]
The Glorious Leader is such a sensitive soul, can't have his feelings hurt....
The conclusion is a minority government that only lasts a few months. After that there will either be another GE or a coalition involving several parties will be thrashed out over the summer (including some leadership changes) and be confirmed after the September conferences.
Look at the arithmetic using the latest Sporting Index seat numbers.
This has Labour on 286 and Conservative on 283. They need 323 (excl SF and Speaker) for a majority. So Labour need 37 extra and Conservatives need 40 extra.
Where are they going to get them? Sporting Index have LibDem on 29, SNP on 20 and UKIP on 11. Assume Green plus PC plus SDLP get say 8 and are inclined to support Labour. Assume DUP get 9 and are inclined to support Conservative.
Cameron has first crack. He needs 40 for a coalition or confidence and supply. He might get UKIP and DUP support. That is 20. He will also need LibDem support. UKIP plus DUP plus LibDem for confidence and supply would collapse at the first hurdle.
Miliband then has a crack at it. He needs 37. He could get it from SNP plus LibDem. He could also just get it theoretically from LibDem plus Green plus PC plus SLDP but it would be too unstable. He needs the SNP and LibDems. But I believe he could get a temporary supply and confidence for the Queens Speech from a subset of SNP+LibDem+Green+PC+SDLP (57 in total) while a coalition is thrashed out between them all over the summer.
This analysis depends on the current Sporting Index numbers. But they will need to change a lot to alter the general conclusion that it will be a temporary Labour minority government.
As did the Liberals, which tends not to get mentioned (particularly by Liberals/LDs).
We can only hope there is a change of policies not just personnel.
What with Thornberry getting binned, harshly in my view, and now going after Klass, does Labour have a problem with women?
Let's face it by the end no one in their right mind could possibly have thought that a continuation of Callaghan's government was in the national interest. He was a nice guy but he had lost the ability to govern and Britain was in desperate need of government. The SNP did the right thing and so did the Liberals.
In my view MT compared to 50% to 45% tax cut is a clear winner with the voters.
Believe me, the UKIP get a much more favourable treatment in Scotland than the SNP - look at the way Mr Farage's visit was reported and its disruption blamed on Mr Salmond personally by some newspapers. Even today, some PBers still think the Yes campaign had orchestrated thugs when in fact, one egg apart, all the violent incidents were perpetrated by Labour and their allies, such as the George Square attacks and riot.
But as a wise PBer said a year or so back the EU referendum will reprise many of the same tricks and incidents as indyref saw and this time we Scots will be sitting with the popcorn and ticking them off as we see them rolled out again.
Most taxes that other people have to pay are "clear winners" with voters.
Doesn't make them good governance or make the country better for people.
For more info, see Hollande in France.
In Clacton the Conservatives declined from 53% to 25%. In Rochester and Strood they declined from 49% to 35%.
Labour's biggest problem is that it has a very weak leader who can't think on his feet, his backroom staff who are badly advising him.. just think what it would be like if they got into Govt?? It doesn't bear thinking about.
Myleene is a minor celebrity who is totally out of touch with white van man isn't she?
I've had a similar experience at Piccadilly Circus, but I'm far more familiar with that area.
Meanwhile, Tom Watson offer's his view:
Why it would be disastrous if we give Jim Murphy Labour's top job in Scotland … says the party's former deputy chairman
http://www.heraldscotland.com/comment/columnists/why-it-would-be-disastrous-if-we-give-jim-murphy-labours-top-job-in-scotland-says.25941193
Sturgeon could be in position for quite a while......
You get nicer and nicer...
That was an utterly contemptible comparison by BJO.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has announced the make-up of her new senior ministerial team, with an equal split of male and female members.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30138550
I note the Left are big on employment protection and on anti-discrimination in hiring practices, but are remarkably vicious in stopping others who disagree with them or they simply don't like from earning a living.
I think that the nasty wing of Labour has it in for her because it assumes that mixed race single mothers should automatically support Labour. It is Thornberrys arrogance all over again, but all the nastier for being deliberate.
Falling out with Watson was yet another Ed mistake. Labour has few enough campaigners with his talent.
Nasty, nasty party.
IRA terrorists on the other hand . . .
Edit Realised that the 'IRA' part is redundant
For the avoidance of doubt this is not another comparison!
We could well be in for a few years on absolute chaos...
Not going to happen but I can understand why you would like it to
My conviction that we're heading for an outright Conservative victory is increasing.
Past performance is no indication, but I've never yet lost a political punt.
Something like:
Con 39.5%
Lab 28.5%
UKIP 11%
LD 10%
Tory majority 50+
Why are you trying to get Myleene Klass fired?
We the undersigned call upon you, Littlewoods to part company with Myleene Klass. This is because Miss Klass has shown herself to be an inappropriate representative for a brand such as yours which is aimed at customers who have to pay for their belongings in installments because they cannot afford to pay up front.
Littlewood's customers who pay weekly for the items they cannot afford to buy upfront- especially at Christmas time- are among the most hard hit by Britain's current economic hardships.
Littlewoods, there has been a huge public outcry from your customers who feel humiliated and demoralised by the comments of your public face Miss Myleene Klass.
Many feel- as you can read in the reasons people have given for signing this petition- that Miss Klass is an inappropriate representative for the company they buy from in installments. Obviously these people are far from wealthy and many profess to be struggling very badly in these difficult financial times.
The public members who have signed this petition have done so for the following reasons:
* Miss Klass failed to balance her comments on her perceived unfairness of the Mansion Tax with reference to the Bedroom tax which has crippled the finances of many a British family- very many of those are your own customers.
*Miss Klass (estimated net worth in 2012 £11 million), made comments that many members of the public feel show she is out of touch with the life of the everyday person such as her stating that £2 million was a is small amount to spend on a property. In particular the statement describing the amount of £2 million as barely enough to buy a garage was seen to be in bad taste.
Is there a new Labour plan to bar all such from re entering society via the rule of the mob?
Worst of all would be for the winner to be fixed in Westminster!
Using that argument, Ed Miliband and many in the Labour party are an "inappropriate representative" for their voters.
Only a moron or PB Tories would think i was comparing the two.
For the avoidance of doubt this is not another comparison!
Do you agree with the fact that MPs will not have to pay Ed's Mansion tax as they'll be able to claim it back as 'expenses'?
Let's see how he reacts to his livelihood being threatened.
Have you seen Cheds website?
To be honest, In think BJO's desperation to protect his ludicrously generous pension arrangements drive all his posts.
Myleene has done a great deal for charity via children in need; though perhaps the most high profile donation was this one to benefit the victims of the Farepack collapse:
http://m.v3.co.uk/v3-uk/news/2008312/myleene-klass-bikini-tops-gbp7-ebay
Myleene is not Labours enemy and should be left alone.
Just saying.
Mob rule is for savages.
Findlay is the Union's man, Murphy the MSPs - which will cause Ed a bigger headache.
I don't know Findlay - but I suspect Murphy would be perfectly happy to tell Ed to Foxtrot Oscar.....which frankly is what SLAB needs.....
Terrorists most welcome.
Also, talentless singers who desecrate Russian cathedrals are to be feted.
I bloody loved it.
Re entering society begins with remorse.
Evans has not only shown none but is still hounding the victim of his crime with his contemptible website.
Just catching up with the previous thread, thanks to all who contributed to the ADHD discussion, a subject I knew very little about - most informative. Ta.
So you're an active proponent in an Internet hate campaign against an individual based on her view of a tax and because she duffed up your geek..
You should stop soiling yourself so badly in public.
Interesting times for SLAB whichever way it goes.
How on earth is that calling it right?!?
What worse than for example Crosby 1981 when a 19000 Tory majority became a 5000 vote Alliance one? And that Labour "nobody" on present polling could well be PM in 2015 in charge of a Labour led government. Not sure how that will further the progress of Hitchens and his little England dream.
But have you not seen my posts about Oldies that cannot even by PB Tories be seen as srlf serving surely.
Waits 30 seconds
Both are disgusting.
There are some politicians and commentators for whom it's probably best just to laugh. Dennis Healey, Norman Tebbit, Tim Montgomerie, Peter Hitchens, Dan Hodges being some examples.