politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as

System

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON GE15 prices moves up because Rochester wasn’t as bad as many in the blue team feared

Bramhall South and Woodford on Stockport (Con Defence)
Result: Conservative 2,080 (53% +8%), Liberal Democrats 1,502 (38% +5%), Green 197 (5%, no candidate last time), Labour 132 (3% -6%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 468 (13%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lib Dem to Con

Read the full story here

Sunil_Prasannan

First past the post!

TheScreamingEagles

I'm in London baby

Grandiose

What are the price moves on BetFair for overall majority?

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm in London baby

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm in London baby

See you soon!

Stark_Dawning

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

TheScreamingEagles

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

The pre defection poll did exist.

SandyRentool

Thornbury graphically illustrates why we need to move back to the "Blue Labour" agenda - and fast. The problem is balancing this with policies to keep the Greeny-Reds on board (and bring back those who are now Reddy-Greens). A white van run on bio-fuel, if you like.

MarqueeMark

London, lock up your daughters.

And just to be safe, your sons too.....

SimonStClare

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm in London baby

blimey, he's a bloody toff...! ;

Sean_F

FPT London, strictly speaking, it's London, the South, and East Anglia that subsidise the rest of the country (at least when the public finances are in balance). But, of course, there are great areas of poverty in London, the South, and East Anglia, and great areas of prosperity in the rest of the country.

Paradoxically, London's continued prosperity depends on the rest of England not voting the same way as London does.

TheScreamingEagles

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm in London baby

blimey, he's a bloody toff...! ;

Former public schoolboy to boot as well.

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

The pre defection poll did exist.

I sure it did. I was using 'mythical' in the sense of a powerful narrative rather than a story of questionable veracity.

Charles

@antifrank, FPT

To be fair, the Merck family probably do have a case about the US Congress expropriating their business and selling it to their mates at a knockdown price (probably in return for a backhander).

But they're still doing ok.

FormerToryOrange

The seat bands for Labour and Conservative look quite close to correct. However on these prices I'd say buy Lib Dems and sell UKIP and SNP.

stodge

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

I think the assumption Reckless will lose in May is far from clear. Yes, the margin was much closer last night then many suspected but the turnout was lower than some believed and lower than would be the case at a GE.

There's also the truth that the Conservatives have a lot of seats to defend in Kent from both UKIP and Labour so the resources of a by-election won't be available whereas UKIP have, by definition, fewer targets and may be able to field more resources.

I assume the CON price is still around 5/6 - I'd say short rnough. Populus today wasn't a good poll for the Conservatives with Labour still over 35.

Anorak

Catching up on the last thread. I'd like to thank Mr Sykes for this gem, which led to a hearty chuckle and brightened a sh1tty day at work:

It's those of a right-on, intellectual, Guardian-reading, wonkish, hoity-toity, champagne socialist, mwah-mwah, darling luvvie dear, elitist, culture-wanker persuasion who are the complete arseholes who hate the English, the British, our history, and our country and all it stands for.

Sean_F

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

Reckless has a pretty good chance of winning in May. People who are sympathetic to UKIP know that there's no danger of letting in Labour here. And, he's the incumbent.

Moses_

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

Neil

stodge said:

Yes, the margin was much closer last night then many suspected but the turnout was lower than some believed and lower than would be the case at a GE.

I would have thought that lower turnout would suit UKIP? I dont think it's a given (the odds are fairly balanced) but the factors in the Tories' favour here next May are (1) it wont be a byelection (2) the narrative will probably be Dave V Ed for PM and that should concentrate minds / squeeze some votes (3) turnout will be higher (I presume that works against UKIP but maybe I'm wrong). Compared to the by-election I'm struggling to think of what will be much better for Reckless than applied yesterday. Of course he does have a margin to start off with.

Andy_Cooke

FPT:

antifrank said:

Pulpstar said:

One of Andy Cooke's assumptions should be updated in view of last night.

Andy_Cooke said:

Andy_Cooke Posts: 130
November 18
Reposted FPT - to demonstrate just how much assumptions can affect the seat score for the Lib Dems at polling on this level, using pure UNS:
antifrank said:
If the Lib Dems really did tally 5% at the general election, I expect that they would take Orkney & Shetland, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Norfolk North and Ross, Skye & Lochaber. They would be lucky to take another seat.

Well, UNS is only an indication at the best of times, but if you construct a UNS spreadsheet and put a hard floor on the vote score (which you really need to do with the Lib Dems at the moment), then a lot is down to assumption, of course.

- Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency.
- Assume that vote scores under 5% are harder to compress (give a 1.5% boost to any score that would be under 5% with a hard stop at 1.5%)
- Assume no incumbency boost
- Separate out Scotland (Giving them 3.5% in Scotland to reflect a further hit; UKIP only 10% in Scotland rather than 20%)
- Give Tories 17% in Scotland (similar to last time)
- Have Labour and SNP level on 31% in Scotland
- Use Con 34, Lab 33, LD 5, UKIP 20, Green 5 for GB

... You get (on straight UNS) 9 LD seats (7 in England, 1 in Scotland, 1 in Wales)
(For reference, you end up with Lab 323, Con 277, SNP 17, LD 9, Plaid 3, Green 2, UKIP 1)

Of course, you'll have some incumbency boost (which is what UKIP are relying on in Clacton and (they hope) Rochester). If you shove in a 2% incumbency boost for the Big Two parties (which seems consistent with pervious elections; could be questionable this time) and a 6% incumbency boost for Lib Dems (looks reasonably consistent with the Ashcroft figure) and adjust the Clacton seat by hand - otherwise it's utterly unwinnable for UKIP; on those figures, it's gonna be held by them.

...

You get 16 LD seats on 5% of the vote, with it never going negative or even below 1.5% in any seat.

(Lab 312, Con 280, SNP 17, LD 16, Plaid 3, UKIP 2, Green 2.


All for whatever it's worth. That's just what UNS produces under those assumptions (which don't look too implausible). It is, as with any modelling, highly artificial, but it does show that even on very low figures, the Lib Dems can get a few seats.

Assume a hard floor at 1.5% in any constituency.

That clearly doesn't hold for the Lib Dems any more and I'd say the hard floor needed is 0.5%.

That marginally improves their chances, all else being equal under FPTP.

I didn't see this post originally.

The incumbency boost assumed for the Lib Dems would take their poll share above 5%.

I don't get the reasoning. A 6% incumbency boost for the Lib Dems in 57 seats would equate to 0.5% of the vote GB-wide.

SquareRoot

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

The trouble with that sort of lie, is that everyone knows its a lie and it makes Ed look even weaker. He really is USELESS.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/535808286910865408

taffys

''Did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation? ''

I suppose its beyond the bounds of possibility to suggest that Reckless did what he did out of principle.

Richard_Tyndall

MarqueeMark said:

London, lock up your daughters.

And just to be safe, your sons too.....

And your sheep? :-)

Bob__Sykes

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

Ha! I can see why he was so "effing furious" when he saw Emily's tweet in that case!

Please Labour, do not get rid of Ed. He's hilarious.

Moses_

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/535808286910865408

One of each?

Jonathan

When does the gathering start tonight? I would like to swing by on my way home, but cannot be too late.

Richard_Tyndall

taffys said:

''Did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation? ''

I suppose its beyond the bounds of possibility to suggest that Reckless did what he did out of principle.

Not sure that most Tories on here understand the idea of 'principle'. They are certainly ready to disregard it at every turn when it conflicts with party ambition.

isam

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

Reckless has a pretty good chance of winning in May. People who are sympathetic to UKIP know that there's no danger of letting in Labour here. And, he's the incumbent.

7/4 UKIP is massive value IMO.

If there had been no by election, Reckless defected today, and an opinion poll put him 7 points clear I think he would be shorter than 7/4

Bob__Sykes

SquareRoot said:

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

The trouble with that sort of lie, is that everyone knows its a lie and it makes Ed look even weaker. He really is USELESS.

Maybe he's been taking lessons from Tony "Jackie Milburn" Blair? :-)

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/535808286910865408

The red trainers are a bit naff to be honest. If they had been red suede then it would have been a 'shoe-in' :-)

glw

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

Brilliant. That tattoo on his bicep can only be days away.

Ed's the Tory dream candidate, Kinnock or Foot would be better for Labour.

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Tyndall said:

MarqueeMark said:

London, lock up your daughters.

And just to be safe, your sons too.....

And your sheep? :-)

Well Corporeal is going to be there and he's Welsh.

I've seen your idea for a Newark meet, I'd be up for that.

TheScreamingEagles

Jonathan said:

When does the gathering start tonight? I would like to swing by on my way home, but cannot be too late.

Starts around 6.30

Moses_

SquareRoot said:

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

The trouble with that sort of lie, is that everyone knows its a lie and it makes Ed look even weaker. He really is USELESS.

....And that's it in a nutshell it is an obvious lie. Its a painfully excruciatingly blatant lie. The man is a complete tool.

Richard_Tyndall

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MarqueeMark said:

London, lock up your daughters.

And just to be safe, your sons too.....

And your sheep? :-)

Well Corporeal is going to be there and he's Welsh.

I've seen your idea for a Newark meet, I'd be up for that.

Excellent. Will start to look at possible venues once the year has closed.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

Anorak said:

Catching up on the last thread. I'd like to thank Mr Sykes for this gem, which led to a hearty chuckle and brightened a sh1tty day at work:

It's those of a right-on, intellectual, Guardian-reading, wonkish, hoity-toity, champagne socialist, mwah-mwah, darling luvvie dear, elitist, culture-wanker persuasion who are the complete arseholes who hate the English, the British, our history, and our country and all it stands for.

The flag story is the perfect PB story - for it 'proves' PBers' prejudices about Labour being posh rich who hate the English

edmundintokyo

taffys said:

''Did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation? ''

I suppose its beyond the bounds of possibility to suggest that Reckless did what he did out of principle.

Also there was a non-trivial chance UKIP would either beat him straight up or split the right enough to let Labour beat him. (It's looked like there's less chance of this lately as UKIP have been doing more damage to Lab.)

Pulpstar

2-5 Tories too short.

MarqueeMark

glw said:

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

Brilliant. That tattoo on his bicep can only be days away.

Ed's the Tory dream candidate, Kinnock or Foot would be better for Labour.

I think that tat might be across his forehead. Reading "TOSSER".....

Cyclefree

Well, if we're back on shoes (and about time):-

I am - City crooks permitting - intending to be at DD's this evening. If OGH is there taking pictures he can photograph my shoes only, for the benefit of Beverley C, TSE and any other PB shoe fetishists.

richardDodd

...and what about the black van man.. and the brown one ..and the red one ..and the green one..and the stripy one..elitist ba*tard

Carnyx

Have a nice drinky-poos tonight, those of you who are going. Bit far for me and those of us north of the border, for which this may however be of interest - new newspaper coming out on Monday:

http://www.theguardian.com/media/2014/nov/21/the-national-pro-independence-newspaper-launch-scotland?CMP=twt_gu

Edit: this too,

http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/nov/21/bravo-newsquest-your-scottish-independence-paper-is-timely

Neil

Bob__Sykes said:

SquareRoot said:

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

The trouble with that sort of lie, is that everyone knows its a lie and it makes Ed look even weaker. He really is USELESS.

Maybe he's been taking lessons from Tony "Jackie Milburn" Blair? :-)

That was an urban myth, wasnt it?

CarlottaVance

Labour didn’t just lose a by-election last night, the centre-piece of Ed Miliband’s recovery strategy collapsed.

Rochester and Strood was meant to be a firebreak; the barrier that prevented the flames of a vanishing poll lead and growing internal Labour dissent from enveloping Ed Miliband.

Last week was the Labour leader’s big fight-back speech, this week was meant to be about the Tory by-election defeat to Ukip and next week should have been David Cameron’s Götterdämmerung with new defections to Ukip and the emergence of a letter in the press, signed by dozens of Tory backbenchers, calling for a change in leader.

This was the optimistic scenario mapped out by Ed Miliband’s advisers. Three weeks that would shift the topic of political conversation from Labour turmoil to Tory troubles.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/11/21/ed-miliband-lost-more-than-a-by-election-last-night/

MarqueeMark

I suppose it is too much to hope that there might just have been a fly-on-the-wall documentary crew following Ed around for the past few days? Because it would be like The Thick of It on steroids....

rcs1000

isam said:

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

Reckless has a pretty good chance of winning in May. People who are sympathetic to UKIP know that there's no danger of letting in Labour here. And, he's the incumbent.

7/4 UKIP is massive value IMO.

If there had been no by election, Reckless defected today, and an opinion poll put him 7 points clear I think he would be shorter than 7/4

The reason Reckless is 7/4 is that:

1. The Ashcroft poll overstated Reckless's winning margin yesterday, and had him losing in May.
2. 80% of by-election victories in the last 30 years have gone back to their previous party at the next general election; with victories as narrow as yesterday's, I would guess the number is 100%.

Personally, I think Reckless could well do it - but I would have the Tories as narrow favourites.

And I'm very happy with the bets I have with you and PtP re May :-)

Norm

stodge said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

I think the assumption Reckless will lose in May is far from clear. Yes, the margin was much closer last night then many suspected but the turnout was lower than some believed and lower than would be the case at a GE.

There's also the truth that the Conservatives have a lot of seats to defend in Kent from both UKIP and Labour so the resources of a by-election won't be available whereas UKIP have, by definition, fewer targets and may be able to field more resources.

I assume the CON price is still around 5/6 - I'd say short rnough. Populus today wasn't a good poll for the Conservatives with Labour still over 35.

Populus are rubbish, on that Tories and Kippers for once would agree given the last few polls prior to this one I believe showed the latter at 12-13%. They are out of kilter with everyone else re main party share too.

MikeSmithson

Looks like we'll get a good turnout at Dirty Dicks tonight. It might be very crowded

CarlottaVance

Dan Hodges tweets: Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

Moses_

richardDodd said:

...and what about the black van man.. and the brown one ..and the red one ..and the green one..and the stripy one..elitist ba*tard

I was thinking the same but how he has just sneered and insulted all those hanging the Scottish , welsh and Cornish flags. He should resign.

oxfordsimon

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

Perhaps Miliband is preparing to defect to join Galloway's 'respect' agenda....

Norm

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

Reckless has a pretty good chance of winning in May. People who are sympathetic to UKIP know that there's no danger of letting in Labour here. And, he's the incumbent.

7/4 UKIP is massive value IMO.

If there had been no by election, Reckless defected today, and an opinion poll put him 7 points clear I think he would be shorter than 7/4

The reason Reckless is 7/4 is that:

1. The Ashcroft poll overstated Reckless's winning margin yesterday, and had him losing in May.
2. 80% of by-election victories in the last 30 years have gone back to their previous party at the next general election; with victories as narrow as yesterday's, I would guess the number is 100%.

Personally, I think Reckless could well do it - but I would have the Tories as narrow favourites.

And I'm very happy with the bets I have with you and PtP re May :-)

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

Sean_F said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

Reckless has a pretty good chance of winning in May. People who are sympathetic to UKIP know that there's no danger of letting in Labour here. And, he's the incumbent.

7/4 UKIP is massive value IMO.

If there had been no by election, Reckless defected today, and an opinion poll put him 7 points clear I think he would be shorter than 7/4

The reason Reckless is 7/4 is that:

1. The Ashcroft poll overstated Reckless's winning margin yesterday, and had him losing in May.
2. 80% of by-election victories in the last 30 years have gone back to their previous party at the next general election; with victories as narrow as yesterday's, I would guess the number is 100%.

Personally, I think Reckless could well do it - but I would have the Tories as narrow favourites.

And I'm very happy with the bets I have with you and PtP re May :-)

Even as a KT backer I agree this is difficult to call. 50-50 right now I'd say. Circumstances might decide it.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

Norm said:

stodge said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

I think the assumption Reckless will lose in May is far from clear. Yes, the margin was much closer last night then many suspected but the turnout was lower than some believed and lower than would be the case at a GE.

There's also the truth that the Conservatives have a lot of seats to defend in Kent from both UKIP and Labour so the resources of a by-election won't be available whereas UKIP have, by definition, fewer targets and may be able to field more resources.

I assume the CON price is still around 5/6 - I'd say short rnough. Populus today wasn't a good poll for the Conservatives with Labour still over 35.

Populus are rubbish, on that Tories and Kippers for once would agree given the last few polls prior to this one I believe showed the latter at 12-13%. They are out of kilter with everyone else re main party share too.

It is often observed that those who describe a poll as rubbish dislike what that poll shows.

stodge

Neil said:

stodge said:

Yes, the margin was much closer last night then many suspected but the turnout was lower than some believed and lower than would be the case at a GE.

I would have thought that lower turnout would suit UKIP? I dont think it's a given (the odds are fairly balanced) but the factors in the Tories' favour here next May are (1) it wont be a byelection (2) the narrative will probably be Dave V Ed for PM and that should concentrate minds / squeeze some votes (3) turnout will be higher (I presume that works against UKIP but maybe I'm wrong). Compared to the by-election I'm struggling to think of what will be much better for Reckless than applied yesterday. Of course he does have a margin to start off with.

There was polling evidence that UKIP werederiving a large part of their support from people who said they didn't vote in 2010. I suspect that means that they wouldn't vote in any election other than a GE. That also leads me to suppose that Reckless has a pool of support that he might be able to draw on in May but didn't vote for him yesterday.

As for Ed M, I am of course reminded that there are plenty on here who would ridicule or criticise ANY Labour leader and had pb existed in say 1996 I'm sure there would have been plenty of negative comment and vitriol about Blair.

Those who are not well disposed toward Labour can find something or something retweeted or misquoted to confirm their view. As for how he will perform in an election campaign when he has the opportunity to critique a Government performance which even its stuanchest supporters might argue is not without its flaws, that remains to be seen.

We also have in David Cameron an individual who we know can be brittle under pressure and has been known to throw a wobbly when faced with a line of questionning he doesn't like. He will face some searching and awkward questions about his Government's performance and I suspect some of his bonhomie may crack round the edges.

Carnyx

Moses_ said:

richardDodd said:

...and what about the black van man.. and the brown one ..and the red one ..and the green one..and the stripy one..elitist ba*tard

I was thinking the same but how he has just sneered and insulted all those hanging the Scottish , welsh and Cornish flags. He should resign.

Er, how do you mean, please? I read that the original tweet from the Labour MP referred to 'British' flags, is that it?

CarlottaVance

George Eaton tweets: Ed’s abandoned an ally when his enemies have survived far worse,” Labour source tells me on Thornberry

dr_spyn

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

Stark_Dawning

CarlottaVance said:

Labour didn’t just lose a by-election last night, the centre-piece of Ed Miliband’s recovery strategy collapsed.

Rochester and Strood was meant to be a firebreak; the barrier that prevented the flames of a vanishing poll lead and growing internal Labour dissent from enveloping Ed Miliband.

Last week was the Labour leader’s big fight-back speech, this week was meant to be about the Tory by-election defeat to Ukip and next week should have been David Cameron’s Götterdämmerung with new defections to Ukip and the emergence of a letter in the press, signed by dozens of Tory backbenchers, calling for a change in leader.

This was the optimistic scenario mapped out by Ed Miliband’s advisers. Three weeks that would shift the topic of political conversation from Labour turmoil to Tory troubles.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/11/21/ed-miliband-lost-more-than-a-by-election-last-night/

That's pretty strong stuff. Has Dan Hodges put pen to paper yet? If not, perhaps it's just because he's going to let this one pass.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

SquareRoot said:

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.


Say what?

The trouble with that sort of lie, is that everyone knows its a lie and it makes Ed look even weaker. He really is USELESS.

You don't like Ed, and you don't like Labour. As they say in the press: hold the front page.

Casino_Royale

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Moses_

Carnyx said:

Moses_ said:

richardDodd said:

...and what about the black van man.. and the brown one ..and the red one ..and the green one..and the stripy one..elitist ba*tard

I was thinking the same but how he has just sneered and insulted all those hanging the Scottish , welsh and Cornish flags. He should resign.

Er, how do you mean, please? I read that the original tweet from the Labour MP referred to 'British' flags, is that it?

It was singular , she was thinking of the union flag. ( not jack as it is referred to as that only when at the pointy end of a ship)

I have no idea what Ed was thinking?

Norm

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Norm said:

stodge said:

Stark_Dawning said:

If I were Reckless I'd want to put my hands around Farage's throat. Presumably Farage showed him data (the mythical UKIP constituency poll?) that pointed to a job for life under the UKIP rosette. By the looks of things, Reckless could be out on his ear in six months. Or did Farage promise Reckless a fast track to the EU gravy train by way of compensation?

I think the assumption Reckless will lose in May is far from clear. Yes, the margin was much closer last night then many suspected but the turnout was lower than some believed and lower than would be the case at a GE.

There's also the truth that the Conservatives have a lot of seats to defend in Kent from both UKIP and Labour so the resources of a by-election won't be available whereas UKIP have, by definition, fewer targets and may be able to field more resources.

I assume the CON price is still around 5/6 - I'd say short rnough. Populus today wasn't a good poll for the Conservatives with Labour still over 35.

Populus are rubbish, on that Tories and Kippers for once would agree given the last few polls prior to this one I believe showed the latter at 12-13%. They are out of kilter with everyone else re main party share too.

It is often observed that those who describe a poll as rubbish dislike what that poll shows.

Populus have been out of their own for quite a while now - I never call an individual poll rubbish -outliers are fine..

oxfordsimon

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

70th Anniversary of VE Day. I doubt it will go down as the start of Victory for Ed Day

The_Last_Boy_Scout

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Daniel Hodges omits to mention that Klass War was good for Ed: the public supported his view. The media may have opposed it, but that is a different thing.

CarlottaVance

And the weekly corrective for political obsessives:

The top 10 news stories noticed - at no 5 Rochester (3.6%) and number 10 Ed Miliband's troubles (1.6%)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2-Yk3CCUAA8Jmd.jpg:large

Casino_Royale

To be honest, I could use a pint now. But I have a couple of hours work to wade through first.

dr_spyn

feel the respect.

http://order-order.com/2014/11/21/miliband-i-feel-respect-when-i-see-a-white-van/

Even Ali G can spot the fake.

oxfordsimon

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Daniel Hodges omits to mention that Klass War was good for Ed: the public supported his view. The media may have opposed it, but that is a different thing.

No. A few very loud voices supported his view. Most people saw a man out of his depth being batted about by a woman with no political background. If he can't hold his own against that sort of opponent, it is no wonder why he can't cope as leader of a once great party.

The_Last_Boy_Scout

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

saddened

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Anorak said:

Catching up on the last thread. I'd like to thank Mr Sykes for this gem, which led to a hearty chuckle and brightened a sh1tty day at work:

It's those of a right-on, intellectual, Guardian-reading, wonkish, hoity-toity, champagne socialist, mwah-mwah, darling luvvie dear, elitist, culture-wanker persuasion who are the complete arseholes who hate the English, the British, our history, and our country and all it stands for.

The flag story is the perfect PB story - for it 'proves' PBers' prejudices about Labour being posh rich who hate the English

It's the perfect PB story because it demonstrates beyond all doubt that what they have been saying for many months is correct. Ed Milliband is crap. You know he is, you just can't bring yourself to admit it, probably, not even to yourself.

Casino_Royale

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Daniel Hodges omits to mention that Klass War was good for Ed: the public supported his view. The media may have opposed it, but that is a different thing.

A plurality of voters might say they agree with the policy. But that doesn't make it good for Ed - he came across as condescending, hesitant and unconvincing, so will have weakened in voters eyes as a serious candidate for Prime Minister.

Casino_Royale

oxfordsimon said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

70th Anniversary of VE Day. I doubt it will go down as the start of Victory for Ed Day

True. No matter what happens there'll be a reason to celebrate that day. Hopefully two.

stodge

8th May will also see the Nigel Farage "we have won no seats but a great victory" speech. I'm looking forward to that one. I suspect Nick Clegg's will be "we have won no votes but a great victory".

oxfordsimon

dr_spyn said:

feel the respect.

http://order-order.com/2014/11/21/miliband-i-feel-respect-when-i-see-a-white-van/

Even Ali G can spot the fake.

Blimey, it is even worse when you see it.

The man can't do sincere - let alone authentic

The_Woodpecker

FPT:

CarlottaVance said:

The_Woodpecker said:

Also, who won the Rochester and Strood prediction competition? Think I was on 7 or 8%.

While its up to OGH to declare the official result, it looks like N Simms:

http://www.nojam.com/demo/pbrochester/results.php?b=0&i=1&s_Name=&s_Prty=4&o_lcl=predict_3026_Margin_10348

Thank you.

Indigo

Anorak said:

Catching up on the last thread. I'd like to thank Mr Sykes for this gem, which led to a hearty chuckle and brightened a sh1tty day at work:

It's those of a right-on, intellectual, Guardian-reading, wonkish, hoity-toity, champagne socialist, mwah-mwah, darling luvvie dear, elitist, culture-wanker persuasion who are the complete arseholes who hate the English, the British, our history, and our country and all it stands for.

I was wondering when he was going to tell us what he REALLY thought.

The difference is small c conservatism, those respectable northern labour MPs that love their country are probably under the party gloss, old fashioned, socially conservative labour MPs. The Guardian reading social liberals described with such aplomb above are a different kettle of fish, most of those will be considering nicking a few quick from the poor box next time the national anthem is played because its less embarrassing for them.

CarlottaVance

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

In itself it is trivial. What it (may or may not, depending on your point of view) says about the man who could be PM in a little over 5 months is not - 'decisive stand against snobbery' or 'panicked defenestration of loyal ally' is not.

oxfordsimon

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

No.

On the day that should have been about UKIP increasing their numbers at Westminster, we have Labour party troubles front and centre of the political landscape. AGAIN.

Miliband talking about respect - more fuel for the fire

Thornberry favouriting tweets - more fuel for the fire

Powell's performance against Andrew Neill - more fuel for the fire

Today will be remembered for Labour's patronising behaviour towards the working class rather than Reckless returning to parliament.

Worst of all possible worlds for Team Ed

dr_spyn

CarlottaVance said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

In itself it is trivial. What it (may or may not, depending on your point of view) says about the man who could be PM in a little over 5 months is not - 'decisive stand against snobbery' or 'panicked defenestration of loyal ally' is not.

Goodness knows what he will do to Labour Councillors & Chief Executives who allowed files to be shredded.

dr_spyn

oxfordsimon said:

dr_spyn said:

feel the respect.

http://order-order.com/2014/11/21/miliband-i-feel-respect-when-i-see-a-white-van/

Even Ali G can spot the fake.

Blimey, it is even worse when you see it.

The man can't do sincere - let alone authentic

Can't even keep it real.

SimonStClare

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

Blimey, all Ed needs to do now is be caught wearing a 'this is what a sweat-shop garment looks like' and he'll be buggered - #OH

The_Last_Boy_Scout

CarlottaVance said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

In itself it is trivial. What it (may or may not, depending on your point of view) says about the man who could be PM in a little over 5 months is not - 'decisive stand against snobbery' or 'panicked defenestration of loyal ally' is not.

I am of the view that the only reason Ms Thornberry had to resign www that she has for many years been rubbish. I failed to see why her tweet was so bad - and I am a patriotic scout. Nevertheless, the airing it has received on here is entirely disproportionate, and a thinly disguised attempt for Conservative supporters to deflect from another dreadful byelection defeat in their heartlands. I feel for Kelly Tolhurst, a good woman who will no doubt become a scapegoat for the result.

richardDodd

Burnham is a bit screechy and he also appears to have a very short memory..has he paid the 21k loan back to the Industry lobbyist...what a creep.

CarlottaVance

Even before Emily Thornberry's Twitter implosion, Labour were spinning just how unwinnable Rochester and Strood was for them.

You know the schtick: not even on our list of target seats, big chunk of the old Medway Towns seat (held by Bob Marshall Andrews until 2010) given to Chatham next door, it's a UKIP-Tory fight etc etc

Well if Rochester* was such a no-hoper for Labour, why did Gordon Brown pick the seat to launch his general election campaign in 2010?

http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/108717/mr_rochester.html

The_Last_Boy_Scout

Casino_Royale said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Daniel Hodges omits to mention that Klass War was good for Ed: the public supported his view. The media may have opposed it, but that is a different thing.

A plurality of voters might say they agree with the policy. But that doesn't make it good for Ed - he came across as condescending, hesitant and unconvincing, so will have weakened in voters eyes as a serious candidate for Prime Minister.

Not so - you miss my point. The public backed Ed's stance with Miss Klass. The media got this wrong - and I write this as one who opposes the mansion tax as it is yet another cliff edge in the taxation system.

RobD

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

CarlottaVance said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

In itself it is trivial. What it (may or may not, depending on your point of view) says about the man who could be PM in a little over 5 months is not - 'decisive stand against snobbery' or 'panicked defenestration of loyal ally' is not.

I am of the view that the only reason Ms Thornberry had to resign www that she has for many years been rubbish. I failed to see why her tweet was so bad - and I am a patriotic scout. Nevertheless, the airing it has received on here is entirely disproportionate, and a thinly disguised attempt for Conservative supporters to deflect from another dreadful byelection defeat in their heartlands. I feel for Kelly Tolhurst, a good woman who will no doubt become a scapegoat for the result.

I wouldn't call the result dreadful, and I presume Kelly will be the candidate at the next election.

CarlottaVance

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

CarlottaVance said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

In itself it is trivial. What it (may or may not, depending on your point of view) says about the man who could be PM in a little over 5 months is not - 'decisive stand against snobbery' or 'panicked defenestration of loyal ally' is not.

I feel for Kelly Tolhurst, a good woman who will no doubt become a scapegoat for the result.

I haven't heard any scapegoating - its all been 'bye-election protest vote' - have you?

felix

Moses_ said:

And still it rumbles on with Ed now fanning the flames of the story.

Daily Telegraph

Ed Miliband has said that he feels a sense of "respect" whenever he sees a white van outside a house draped in England flags.




Roflmfaowmtita!!!!

Moses_

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

Hardly, Ed had an open goal with that by election. He has somehow changed the entire storyline to the issues facing Labour. The Tories have faded into the background. He continues to keep the story alive by going on record insincerely by paying respect to white vans up and down the nation. Will we now have a National white van day? Only white vans so not even inclusive or diverse?

Cameron must be both helpless with laughter and in complete disbelief at his good luck.

Note to Labour..... If you don't stop digging you can include white vans in Oz at this rate.

#SaveEd#WeloveEd

The_Last_Boy_Scout

oxfordsimon said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Daniel Hodges omits to mention that Klass War was good for Ed: the public supported his view. The media may have opposed it, but that is a different thing.

No. A few very loud voices supported his view. Most people saw a man out of his depth being batted about by a woman with no political background. If he can't hold his own against that sort of opponent, it is no wonder why he can't cope as leader of a once great party.

Not at all so - even the weight of commentary on the Daily Mail website was against Miss Klass. I believe only one PB poster called this right: Mr Big John Owls. The tyranny of crowds on here did for reasoned analysis I am afraid

Anorak

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Anorak said:

Catching up on the last thread. I'd like to thank Mr Sykes for this gem, which led to a hearty chuckle and brightened a sh1tty day at work:

It's those of a right-on, intellectual, Guardian-reading, wonkish, hoity-toity, champagne socialist, mwah-mwah, darling luvvie dear, elitist, culture-wanker persuasion who are the complete arseholes who hate the English, the British, our history, and our country and all it stands for.

The flag story is the perfect PB story - for it 'proves' PBers' prejudices about Labour being posh rich who hate the English

Oh, I don't know. It's a story that has bolstered the perception (or prejudice, if you wish to be inflammatory) that Labour has moved so far from its roots, so far from being a working class movement, so far from its entire raison d'etre that's it's no longer fit to represent its core constituency. That not one member of the shadow cabinet could comfortably hold a conversation with a man (or woman) in a northen pub, but every one could wax lyrical about the contrast between a bordeax and a burgandy, is a sad indictment of the modern party.

What has changed, and this is why the story is so important, is that the core constituency has started to notice, and it doesn't like it. Meanwhile, Nigel sparks up another Montecristo...

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

CarlottaVance said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Do we PBers think we might be overplaying Flag gate just a teensy weensy bit? Just maybe?

In itself it is trivial. What it (may or may not, depending on your point of view) says about the man who could be PM in a little over 5 months is not - 'decisive stand against snobbery' or 'panicked defenestration of loyal ally' is not.

I am of the view that the only reason Ms Thornberry had to resign www that she has for many years been rubbish. I failed to see why her tweet was so bad - and I am a patriotic scout. Nevertheless, the airing it has received on here is entirely disproportionate, and a thinly disguised attempt for Conservative supporters to deflect from another dreadful byelection defeat in their heartlands. I feel for Kelly Tolhurst, a good woman who will no doubt become a scapegoat for the result.

I wouldn't call the result dreadful, and I presume Kelly will be the candidate at the next election.

Getting 17% of the vote in the seat where the last Labour PM launched his GE campaign - that I'd call dreadful......

The_Last_Boy_Scout

saddened said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Anorak said:

Catching up on the last thread. I'd like to thank Mr Sykes for this gem, which led to a hearty chuckle and brightened a sh1tty day at work:

It's those of a right-on, intellectual, Guardian-reading, wonkish, hoity-toity, champagne socialist, mwah-mwah, darling luvvie dear, elitist, culture-wanker persuasion who are the complete arseholes who hate the English, the British, our history, and our country and all it stands for.

The flag story is the perfect PB story - for it 'proves' PBers' prejudices about Labour being posh rich who hate the English

It's the perfect PB story because it demonstrates beyond all doubt that what they have been saying for many months is correct. Ed Milliband is crap. You know he is, you just can't bring yourself to admit it, probably, not even to yourself.

Again, not so, as anything and everything proves that to PBers, who already wholeheartedly believe it to be so, with or without flags. Yet it is wonderful catnip to this website- as its commentators are able to write myriad essays on why the left hates England, a theme they thoroughly enjoy.

oxfordsimon

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

oxfordsimon said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Daniel Hodges omits to mention that Klass War was good for Ed: the public supported his view. The media may have opposed it, but that is a different thing.

No. A few very loud voices supported his view. Most people saw a man out of his depth being batted about by a woman with no political background. If he can't hold his own against that sort of opponent, it is no wonder why he can't cope as leader of a once great party.

Not at all so - even the weight of commentary on the Daily Mail website was against Miss Klass. I believe only one PB poster called this right: Mr Big John Owls. The tyranny of crowds on here did for reasoned analysis I am afraid

It is not about what was said, it is all about how it was handled.

The Labour Party machine went into bully mode. And that is deeply unattractive.

It has been a very bad week for Team Miliband - very bad.

Sean_F

stodge said:

8th May will also see the Nigel Farage "we have won no seats but a great victory" speech. I'm looking forward to that one. I suspect Nick Clegg's will be "we have won no votes but a great victory".

8th May will start with Mr. Farage declaring "I shall be commencing negotiations with the interim Conservative Party leader, with a view to formulating a joint programme for government."

felix

I want all white van shortlist but only in winnable seats like Glasgow central.

oxfordsimon

Sean_F said:

stodge said:

8th May will also see the Nigel Farage "we have won no seats but a great victory" speech. I'm looking forward to that one. I suspect Nick Clegg's will be "we have won no votes but a great victory".

8th May will start with Mr. Farage declaring "I shall be commencing negotiations with the interim Conservative Party leader, with a view to formulating a joint programme for government."

In your dreams maybe. Let us remember that UKIP don't even run a Parish Council - they are not even close to being a party of government.

felix

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

oxfordsimon said:

The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

Casino_Royale said:

dr_spyn said:

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 6m6 minutes ago London, England
Bacon sandwich. Gareth. Ukip-Lite. 2p for the homeless. Fireworks Night plot. Dark forces re-launch. Klass War. VanGate. Where does it end?

8th May 2015.

Daniel Hodges omits to mention that Klass War was good for Ed: the public supported his view. The media may have opposed it, but that is a different thing.

No. A few very loud voices supported his view. Most people saw a man out of his depth being batted about by a woman with no political background. If he can't hold his own against that sort of opponent, it is no wonder why he can't cope as leader of a once great party.

Not at all so - even the weight of commentary on the Daily Mail website was against Miss Klass. I believe only one PB poster called this right: Mr Big John Owls. The tyranny of crowds on here did for reasoned analysis I am afraid

It says it all that you've been counting Daliy Mail comments up to try to shore up you leader are you in the klu Klux white van Klan as well?

dr_spyn

Alexander Larman ‏@alexlarman 43s44 seconds ago
Ed Miliband 'feels respect' whenever he sees a white van. Perhaps he's confused it with a hearse.