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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Anybody got any by-election news from Rochester and Strood?

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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    rcs1000 said:


    Portsmouth South, as an aside, should be an exciting result at the next GE. The LibDems 'won it' at the locals, but UKIP's presence is strong and growing. It could down for who's tactically voting against who...

    It's looking like one of the most interesting constituencies. As you say, UKIP have a strong presence as they do in a lot of coastal towns. At the same time, I think it also has quite a big young population with the university there, so maybe the Greens could potentially have a good showing. And the Tories and Labour still have decent bases there. If Hancock stands as an independent, possible 6-way marginal?
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    Are UKIP seriously going to put a twenty two year political twonk with limited life experience up for election? What happened to the 'different kind of politics' that used to be their unique selling point?

    Apparently his selling point is that he'll appeal to Eastern European immigrants. UKIP should start dishing out Grayson Perry handbags and be done with!
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    Neil said:

    I dont understand this controversy over flags. Flags are a Northern Irish thing. Not an English thing. Has Peter Robinson responded? #flegs

    I have a feeling that Mainland politics is beginning to turn on issues of Identity that would be familiar in Northern Ireland.

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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Are UKIP seriously going to put a twenty two year political twonk with limited life experience up for election? What happened to the 'different kind of politics' that used to be their unique selling point?

    Coupled with O Flynns falling out with their puppet master rich backers, they look just like all the others.

    As long as this young whipper snapper can stand in a pub with pint in hand and say "LibLabCon" ...
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    The interesting thing about the UKIP candidate in Boston is that he probably went to secondary school with the children of immigrants from Eastern Europe so he'll understand how to campaign in a way that doesn't put them off.

    I'm impressed, he's a local county councilor at just the age of 20.
    He has a very high chance of becoming the youngest MP since the reform act of 1832.
    Younger than Bernadette Devlin?
    She was the youngest woman, at 21 years 359 days in 1969.

    The youngest since the Great Reform Act was James Dickson (Liberal), elected for Dungannon (Ireland) in 1880, aged 21 years 67 days.

    The youngest in Great Britain was Esmond Harmsworth, elected for Isle of Thanet in 1919 aged 21 years 170 days.

    Prior to the Act there had been 13 and 14-year old MPs...
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    It would appear my joint party founder has been knocking up Rochester all day - We await the TSE feedback on what's going on at the coal face.

    That or he's gone to watch Hunger Games and a pizza....
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    taffys said:

    The flag story is the ultimate PB story - for it proves that Labour are posh Londoners who hate their country!

    You really don't get the meaning of this, do you....??

    Don;t worry. The electorate will.

    Labour had no chance in the seat anyway, I should say
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited November 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Train, parking and overnight accomodation sorted for tommorow for £55.83.

    (£70 if you count the fuel to Newark and back I guess)

    I hesitate to ask where you are staying at those prices. In Eastbourne with JohnO?

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    Swiss_Bob said:

    Neil said:

    Swiss_Bob said:



    17% in the polls in R&C. Would that be Labour's worst result in decades?

    God no, are you kidding? It wouldnt even be their worst result in this Parliament.
    Am not a political anorak, seems low to me.

    Good to know it could get a lot worse.
    They got 9.8% in Eastleigh in 2013 and 3.1% in Henley in 2008 (finishing fifth behind the Greens and the BNP).
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    dr_spyn said:
    From what I can make out the Kings Troops have english flags and royal standards

    Tyler is wearing what looks suspicuously like an EU ring of starts. Shurely shome mishtake?
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Are UKIP seriously going to put a twenty two year political twonk with limited life experience up for election? What happened to the 'different kind of politics' that used to be their unique selling point?

    What do you know of him that you feel you can dismiss him as a political twonk with limited life experience? Who knows what he has had to deal with in his 22 years to date.
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    Anyway, never mind all this flag stuff - whats going on in Rochester?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,295
    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    I dont understand this controversy over flags. Flags are a Northern Irish thing. Not an English thing. Has Peter Robinson responded? #flegs

    I have a feeling that Mainland politics is beginning to turn on issues of Identity that would be familiar in Northern Ireland.

    Danny565 said:

    rcs1000 said:


    Portsmouth South, as an aside, should be an exciting result at the next GE. The LibDems 'won it' at the locals, but UKIP's presence is strong and growing. It could down for who's tactically voting against who...

    It's looking like one of the most interesting constituencies. As you say, UKIP have a strong presence as they do in a lot of coastal towns. At the same time, I think it also has quite a big young population with the university there, so maybe the Greens could potentially have a good showing. And the Tories and Labour still have decent bases there. If Hancock stands as an independent, possible 6-way marginal?
    I don't think Hancock has the local support he thinks he has.

    But it could easily be won by a party in the 20s
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    Thornberry is just one example of the views that the metro elite running Labour hold. But the more amazing fact is how this same elite decided that the WWC in places such as Rochester was not worth trying to gain their votes in a by election. They were more comfortable withdrawing from the battle with the wierd judgement that such places were no longer essential to a Labour victory at the coming GE. So if the South and Scotland are no go zones for Labour, they are going to have to do a hell of a lot better in the metro areas....
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    rcs1000 said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Next question - where will Hamilton stand.

    Portsmouth South for max comedy value please.

    Has Hancock indicated that he will actually stand in Portsmouth South as an independent?
    Given he lost his council seat (despite the LibDems standing down) at the last election, he must surely know that he'd be completely doomed if he stood.

    If he has any sense (which he obviously doesn't) he would stand down at the next election, and quietly disappear.
    But the redundancy package is better for someone who fights and loses?
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    BenM said:

    Tories are so bigoted a Labour MP is not allowed to tweet photos on the campaign trail.

    A look at Emily Thornberry's feed show's she's been tweeting a few photos today.

    The reaction to her tweet is bizarre. People are reading all sorts of things into it that simply aren't there - just projecting their own prejudices about Labour onto it.

    BenM said:

    Oh FFS - apparently there's a petition up to remove Myleene Klass as face of Littlewoods.

    Who are these people?

    They are the very scary po-faced Left who will brook no criticism of the Glorious Leader or of the handed-down-from-on-high-on-stone-tablets Mansion Tax.

    Looking good for the election campaign. Maybe they can spend four weeks getting together a petition against all those people not voting for the Glorious Leader?
    Given the way kippers react to criticism (hardly surprising when St Nigel is so perfect and kipperoogy the obvious new religion) then they are no different to the po faced left.
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    Mike Hancock may stand to protect his Parliamentary allowances (hat tip AnotherDave). The Lib Dem candidate has done a St Peter on Mike Hancock, having previously been his BFF as recently as May.
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    BenM said:

    Tories are so bigoted a Labour MP is not allowed to tweet photos on the campaign trail.

    A look at Emily Thornberry's feed show's she's been tweeting a few photos today.

    The reaction to her tweet is bizarre. People are reading all sorts of things into it that simply aren't there - just projecting their own prejudices about Labour onto it.

    BenM said:

    Oh FFS - apparently there's a petition up to remove Myleene Klass as face of Littlewoods.

    Who are these people?

    They are the very scary po-faced Left who will brook no criticism of the Glorious Leader or of the handed-down-from-on-high-on-stone-tablets Mansion Tax.

    Looking good for the election campaign. Maybe they can spend four weeks getting together a petition against all those people not voting for the Glorious Leader?
    Given the way kippers react to criticism (hardly surprising when St Nigel is so perfect and kipperoogy the obvious new religion) then they are no different to the po faced left.
    But obviously very different to [insert whichever party you support here because their supporters never react badly to criticism and their shit doesnt smell either].

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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    antifrank said:

    The Lib Dem candidate has done a St Peter on Mike Hancock, having previously been his BFF as recently as May.

    Tbf even the Lib Dems have had to get shot of Hancock after the resolution of that court case.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    Pulpstar said:

    Train, parking and overnight accomodation sorted for tommorow for £55.83.

    (£70 if you count the fuel to Newark and back I guess)

    Bloody Hell you must have a gas guzzler its only 34.5 miles each way you know!!!

    I reckon about £6 return for me at 60 to gallon
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    taffys said:

    The flag story is the ultimate PB story - for it proves that Labour are posh Londoners who hate their country!

    You really don't get the meaning of this, do you....??

    Don;t worry. The electorate will.

    Labour had no chance in the seat anyway, I should say
    Yeah, Bob Marshall Andrews only just managed to hold onto the seat for a brief 13 years until 2010.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    antifrank said:

    Mike Hancock may stand to protect his Parliamentary allowances (hat tip AnotherDave). The Lib Dem candidate has done a St Peter on Mike Hancock, having previously been his BFF as recently as May.

    Sorry , that is nonsense , the new system called Resettlement Grant does not differentiate between MPS just stepping down or fighting and losing an election .
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Neil said:

    Are UKIP seriously going to put a twenty two year political twonk with limited life experience up for election? What happened to the 'different kind of politics' that used to be their unique selling point?

    What do you know of him that you feel you can dismiss him as a political twonk with limited life experience? Who knows what he has had to deal with in his 22 years to date.
    Seems no different to the other Twonks riddling politics, save he doesn't have a PPE degree, and 5 years as a Spad.
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    BenM said:

    Tories are so bigoted a Labour MP is not allowed to tweet photos on the campaign trail.

    A look at Emily Thornberry's feed show's she's been tweeting a few photos today.

    The reaction to her tweet is bizarre. People are reading all sorts of things into it that simply aren't there - just projecting their own prejudices about Labour onto it.

    BenM said:

    Oh FFS - apparently there's a petition up to remove Myleene Klass as face of Littlewoods.

    Who are these people?

    They are the very scary po-faced Left who will brook no criticism of the Glorious Leader or of the handed-down-from-on-high-on-stone-tablets Mansion Tax.

    Looking good for the election campaign. Maybe they can spend four weeks getting together a petition against all those people not voting for the Glorious Leader?
    Given the way kippers react to criticism (hardly surprising when St Nigel is so perfect and kipperoogy the obvious new religion) then they are no different to the po faced left.
    Yet more utter trash from the Tory Troll Flightpath.

    There are plenty of UKIP supporters on here quite happy to criticise both the party and Farage. It is only sad party fanatics like yourself who will never say a word against their own party.

    UKIP is founded on the basic idea that no one and nothing is sacred and unquestionable. It si just a shame the Cameroons seem to have turned their leader into some sort of messiah figure who can never be questioned.

    I may not agree with his politics but give me a free thinker like BenM - ready to criticise his own party and leadership - any day over the Tory sheep.
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    Simon Danczuk needs some citizenship lessons:

    This is his comment according to Mail, on the 3 England flags episode:

    ‘I want to see more people flying the British flag.’

    Erm. Those are English flags in the photos. There isn't, to my knowledge, a British flag.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Neil said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Next question - where will Hamilton stand.

    Portsmouth South for max comedy value please.

    Has Hancock indicated that he will actually stand in Portsmouth South as an independent?
    Given he lost his council seat (despite the LibDems standing down) at the last election, he must surely know that he'd be completely doomed if he stood.

    If he has any sense (which he obviously doesn't) he would stand down at the next election, and quietly disappear.
    But the redundancy package is better for someone who fights and loses?
    No it isn't see my reply to antifrank
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: A little known fact about Emily Thornberry: was the first Lab MP to encourage Ed Mili to run for leader. Was his PPS when DECC Sec, v close.

    @SebastianEPayne: Ed Miliband has spoken to Emily Thornberry this evening about her flags tweet and "made his position quite clear"
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    Are UKIP seriously going to put a twenty two year political twonk with limited life experience up for election? What happened to the 'different kind of politics' that used to be their unique selling point?

    What do you know of him that you feel you can dismiss him as a political twonk with limited life experience? Who knows what he has had to deal with in his 22 years to date.
    Seems no different to the other Twonks riddling politics, save he doesn't have a PPE degree, and 5 years as a Spad.
    So you have no basis for thrashing him like that.

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    Pulpstar said:

    Train, parking and overnight accomodation sorted for tommorow for £55.83.

    (£70 if you count the fuel to Newark and back I guess)

    Bloody Hell you must have a gas guzzler its only 34.5 miles each way you know!!!

    I reckon about £6 return for me at 60 to gallon
    Seeing how many PB regulars seem to be within commuting distance of Newark maybe we should arrange a get-together there sometime in the New Year?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    edited November 2014
    Neil said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Next question - where will Hamilton stand.

    Portsmouth South for max comedy value please.

    Has Hancock indicated that he will actually stand in Portsmouth South as an independent?
    Given he lost his council seat (despite the LibDems standing down) at the last election, he must surely know that he'd be completely doomed if he stood.

    If he has any sense (which he obviously doesn't) he would stand down at the next election, and quietly disappear.
    But the redundancy package is better for someone who fights and loses?
    6 months pay I believe.

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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: The consensus on my timeline appears to be Emily Thornberry does indeed think we're all thick. And the consensus is right.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    BenM said:

    Tories are so bigoted a Labour MP is not allowed to tweet photos on the campaign trail.

    A look at Emily Thornberry's feed show's she's been tweeting a few photos today.

    The reaction to her tweet is bizarre. People are reading all sorts of things into it that simply aren't there - just projecting their own prejudices about Labour onto it.

    BenM said:

    Oh FFS - apparently there's a petition up to remove Myleene Klass as face of Littlewoods.

    Who are these people?

    They are the very scary po-faced Left who will brook no criticism of the Glorious Leader or of the handed-down-from-on-high-on-stone-tablets Mansion Tax.

    Looking good for the election campaign. Maybe they can spend four weeks getting together a petition against all those people not voting for the Glorious Leader?
    Given the way kippers react to criticism (hardly surprising when St Nigel is so perfect and kipperoogy the obvious new religion) then they are no different to the po faced left.
    Yet more utter trash from the Tory Troll Flightpath.

    There are plenty of UKIP supporters on here quite happy to criticise both the party and Farage. It is only sad party fanatics like yourself who will never say a word against their own party.

    UKIP is founded on the basic idea that no one and nothing is sacred and unquestionable. It si just a shame the Cameroons seem to have turned their leader into some sort of messiah figure who can never be questioned.

    I may not agree with his politics but give me a free thinker like BenM - ready to criticise his own party and leadership - any day over the Tory sheep.
    Quite right. Kippers have a long history of putsches, purges, splitters and similar feuds.
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    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: A little known fact about Emily Thornberry: was the first Lab MP to encourage Ed Mili to run for leader. Was his PPS when DECC Sec, v close.

    @SebastianEPayne: Ed Miliband has spoken to Emily Thornberry this evening about her flags tweet and "made his position quite clear"

    Well, that settles it. Watson and Danczuk are obviously using her to get at Ed. If the by-election result is a real shocker for Labour could we see some kind of revolt? (It's such a shame for Labour as all this should be about Cameron and the Tories.)
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sean_F said:

    Neil said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Next question - where will Hamilton stand.

    Portsmouth South for max comedy value please.

    Has Hancock indicated that he will actually stand in Portsmouth South as an independent?
    Given he lost his council seat (despite the LibDems standing down) at the last election, he must surely know that he'd be completely doomed if he stood.

    If he has any sense (which he obviously doesn't) he would stand down at the next election, and quietly disappear.
    But the redundancy package is better for someone who fights and loses?
    6 months pay I believe.

    It is the same in both cases , 12 months but less than that if the MP is over 70 years of age .
This discussion has been closed.