1st UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .
I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.
A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.
What's striking to me is how the Conservatives have remained on 33% or so of the vote since 1997.
1997 30.7% 2001 31.7% 2005 32.3% 2010 36.1%
Keep it up Sean. If indeed it is you, rather than one of your kids sitting on your computer?
Are you interested in showing us all how clever you are?
Not really. At the risk of self-aggrandisement I feel I've done quite enough of that in the world outside ta very much. I quite enjoy posting as I am.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Must have been Mormons then.
Given we have openly mocked their holy book, I expect we can expect Mormons to start blowing themselves up on public transport then.
To be fair to muslims, if we had whole areas of major cities that were almost entirely Mormon, I would expect there to be similar levels of strife amongst 2nd/3rd generation Mormon immigrants and the non Mormon population
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Must have been Mormons then.
Given we have openly mocked their holy book, I expect we can expect Mormons to start blowing themselves up on public transport then.
To be fair to muslims, if we had whole areas of major cities that were almost entirely Mormon, I would expect there to be similar levels of strife amongst 2nd/3rd generation Mormon immigrants and the non Mormon population
You know, if you could get the other 9 out of 10 posts of yours to match that sort of sensible comment you'd be a star on this site. You may yet be.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Which is true. It's a bit like saying the Crusaders were Christians. There's an element of truth about it i.e. they select texts and use them. However, like the Crusaders, these jihadists are really inspired by geo-politics. Islam does not sanction the murdering of innocents.
Nevertheless, trying to have a reasoned and informed debate with pb youkippers about Islam is a dead-end. I don't mean that to be offensive, it's simply the case.
Audrey, I offered you a bet on how many seats UKIP will get, that was a few days ago and I have been on a short break and have no idea if you answered.
No, I didn't see the bet. I've been a bit busy. I already have a bet on with Isam that UKIP will get fewer than a quarter as many seats as the LibDems, if that helps.
I offered a bet at evens that UKIP get 5 or more seats for £100, or our very own spread bet without the spread.
You give me £10 for every seat UKIP get over five, I give you £20 for every seat UKIP get under five.
Given your previous postings regarding us over optimistic Kippers I presume you will bite my hand off.
OT I know a few on here like Marvel/DC Comics TV shows - if you've got access, The Flash is top notch. Constantine is quite fun too. I'm a huge Vampire Diaries fan. That's on ITV2 apparently, I see stuff straight from the US.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Which is true. It's a bit like saying the Crusaders were Christians. There's an element of truth about it i.e. they select texts and use them. However, like the Crusaders, these jihadists are really inspired by geo-politics. Islam does not sanction the murdering of innocents.
Nevertheless, trying to have a reasoned and informed debate with pb youkippers about Islam is a dead-end. I don't mean that to be offensive, it's simply the case.
Audrey, I offered you a bet on how many seats UKIP will get, that was a few days ago and I have been on a short break and have no idea if you answered.
No, I didn't see the bet. I've been a bit busy. I already have a bet on with Isam that UKIP will get fewer than a quarter as many seats as the LibDems, if that helps.
I offered a bet at evens that UKIP get 5 or more seats for £100, or our very own spread bet without the spread.
You give me £10 for every seat UKIP get over five, I give you £20 for every seat UKIP get under five.
Given your previous postings regarding us over optimistic Kippers I presume you will bite my hand off.
But I've said I'll be surprised if they get more than 6. I could see them getting 5 or 6 so I can't really see how this is good value for me tbh.
I'll keep my Spreads elsewhere. There is some value around. Mike gave us a hat tip to one the other day.
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Which is true. It's a bit like saying the Crusaders were Christians. There's an element of truth about it i.e. they select texts and use them. However, like the Crusaders, these jihadists are really inspired by geo-politics. Islam does not sanction the murdering of innocents.
Nevertheless, trying to have a reasoned and informed debate with pb youkippers about Islam is a dead-end. I don't mean that to be offensive, it's simply the case.
Audrey, I offered you a bet on how many seats UKIP will get, that was a few days ago and I have been on a short break and have no idea if you answered.
No, I didn't see the bet. I've been a bit busy. I already have a bet on with Isam that UKIP will get fewer than a quarter as many seats as the LibDems, if that helps.
I offered a bet at evens that UKIP get 5 or more seats for £100, or our very own spread bet without the spread.
You give me £10 for every seat UKIP get over five, I give you £20 for every seat UKIP get under five.
Given your previous postings regarding us over optimistic Kippers I presume you will bite my hand off.
But I've said I'll be surprised if they get more than 6. I could see them getting 5 or 6 so I can't really see how this is good value for me tbh.
I'll keep my Spreads elsewhere. There is some value around. Mike gave us a hat tip to one the other day.
My mistake, I thought you were saying you have seen it all before, your vast experience and the naivety of us Kippers, UKIP will fizzle out etc etc.
Now you are saying they will get 5 or 6 seats, seems like you have either changed your mind or you are a loud mouthed bottle merchant.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
I offered a bet at evens that UKIP get 5 or more seats for £100, or our very own spread bet without the spread.
You give me £10 for every seat UKIP get over five, I give you £20 for every seat UKIP get under five.
Given your previous postings regarding us over optimistic Kippers I presume you will bite my hand off.
But I've said I'll be surprised if they get more than 6. I could see them getting 5 or 6 so I can't really see how this is good value for me tbh.
I'll keep my Spreads elsewhere. There is some value around. Mike gave us a hat tip to one the other day.
My mistake, I thought you were saying you have seen it all before, your vast experience and the naivety of us Kippers, UKIP will fizzle out etc etc.
Now you are saying they will get 5 or 6 seats, seems like you have either changed your mind or you are a loud mouthed bottle merchant.
No as it happens I 'think' they will get 2 or 3 seats.
I'm not a huge fan of the 'betcha' responses to any post because we had a bellyful of that from a previous pb poster. No-one could post anything without that sort of response. Which, as it happens, rather shows up your loud-mouthed comment, if you get the drift.
I tell you what though: I will accept a wager with you that UKIP won't poll more than 15% of the national share. Deal?
I don't see that it was unfair, and it certainly wasn't flippant. It's the same as the left wringing their hands over 'racist' responses to Rotherham, as opposed to being outraged that it happened in the first place. Surely sympathy should reside with someone who was allegedly raped at 12 years old rather than powerful and wealthy politicians.
That is not a view that you in any way conveyed in that totally unfair and very flippant remark you made in response to my post on this subject. I doubt that you even bothered to read, never mind digest the very relevant points I r
Would that applies to all their posts. We can but dream.
Yep we all know your instinctive response to stuff you don't like is to try and make sure it can't be heard. Thankfully Mike does not practice such censorship no matter how fervently you might wish it.
Which is true. It's a bit like saying the Crusaders were Christians. There's an element of truth about it i.e. they select texts and use them. However, like the Crusaders, these jihadists are really inspired by geo-politics. Islam does not sanction the murdering of innocents.
Could you find me any serious historians of the crusades who would agree with your views? I think it is fair to say that all non-Marxist historiography rejects functionalist and materialist interpretations of the crusaders' motives. The Cambridge School, led by J.S.C. Riley-Smith, is at one that the crusaders were inspired by religious motives, often exclusively so. Given that everyone at the time was convinced this was the case, it would be slightly surprising if there was in fact some ulterior hidden motive lying beyond the reach of the documentary evidence. Trying to explain away the force of religious ideology as merely a rationalisation for material interests is a similarly gross fallacy in relation to contemporary events.
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
entirely unsurprising. But Ed's name isn't going be be on every voting slip.
I was in a pub when Ed gave his speech, and a guy turned to his mate and said "" He's weird" Nuff said.
People do not vote for Prime Ministers. If that were so, nobody would vote Liberal, PC, SNP, DUP, Green, etc., etc.
You may not vote on that reason but some voters do vote based on who the party Leader is. The question is what % use that as the main criteria, consciously or unconsciously. There has been a view that our elections are becoming more Presidential and therefore the perception of the Leader is playing a greater role than the past.
Which is true. It's a bit like saying the Crusaders were Christians. There's an element of truth about it i.e. they select texts and use them. However, like the Crusaders, these jihadists are really inspired by geo-politics. Islam does not sanction the murdering of innocents.
Nevertheless, trying to have a reasoned and informed debate with pb youkippers about Islam is a dead-end. I don't mean that to be offensive, it's simply the case.
This is an unfair characterisation (quelle surprise) of the views of 'pb youkippers' (whoever they are). For example, Sean T, a 'pb Tory' has far more strident anti-islam views than pretty much any Ukip supporter here. My own views (that ISIS come from a wahhabist strain of Islam that does not represent the religion itself) are closer to those expressed here by you.
Stop smearing -if your arguments are strong enough they should stand up by themselves.
Which is true. It's a bit like saying the Crusaders were Christians. There's an element of truth about it i.e. they select texts and use them. However, like the Crusaders, these jihadists are really inspired by geo-politics. Islam does not sanction the murdering of innocents.
Could you find me any serious historians of the crusades who would agree with your views? I think it is fair to say that all non-Marxist historiography rejects functionalist and materialist interpretations of the crusaders' motives. The Cambridge School, led by J.S.C. Riley-Smith, is at one that the crusaders were inspired by religious motives, often exclusively so. Given that everyone at the time was convinced this was the case, it would be slightly surprising if there was in fact some ulterior hidden motive lying beyond the reach of the documentary evidence. Trying to explain away the force of religious ideology as merely a rationalisation for material interests is a similarly gross fallacy in relation to contemporary events.
I don't know a single church historian, and I've known a few, who disregard geo-politics in their analysis of what you call religious ideology. The Church of Rome, the Church in the Middle Ages, and the New Testament texts themselves are quite impossible to understand without factoring in politics, economics, social movements as well as power and corruption.
The five main versions of Pope Urban II's speech at Clermont in 1095 (which was one of the main factors to kick-start the Crusades) are all riven by a political agenda.
I would go further and state, with some conviction, that you could never understand a text like Matthew's Gospel without realising the sitz im leben of the writer. Things are not what they might, to the untutored reader, appear.
We could have some fun with this but it's perhaps not the place?
Would that applies to all their posts. We can but dream.
Yep we all know your instinctive response to stuff you don't like is to try and make sure it can't be heard. Thankfully Mike does not practice such censorship no matter how fervently you might wish it.
That's not entirely true. He occasionally bans trolls … and berks.
I don't have a betfair account and don't pretend to completely understand it. At the moment there seems to be £18 available willing to back the tories to win at 21. I have to say if there were similar odds available in a forum I did understand I would be tempted to have a nibble at these prices. It is very likely that Reckless will win but if the DNVs DNV then it gets seriously close, much closer than that anyway.
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
Which is a very important point to remember when the little Englanders are vociferously thumping their tubs on pb.com. They're a minority in the country, and a widely disliked minority at that. Thankfully.
Would that applies to all their posts. We can but dream.
Yep we all know your instinctive response to stuff you don't like is to try and make sure it can't be heard. Thankfully Mike does not practice such censorship no matter how fervently you might wish it.
That's not entirely true. He occasionally bans trolls … and berks.
Kind of surprised you are still around then as I am sure you qualify on both counts.
Just seen: many thanks for that Gadfly. It's a very interesting set of data. You should get a bit more support for your thesis after Thursday's by election, at least for a week or so
Not sure if this has already been discussed - apologies if so.
Today's Sunday Times YouGov has a Lab lead of 2.
However in the same poll, when people are asked how they will vote if the leaders are Cameron, Miliband and Clegg (that's right - the current leaders!), there is a Con lead of 3.
That is a pretty material difference. And a potentially noteworthy finding.
Not sure if this has already been discussed - apologies if so.
Today's Sunday Times YouGov has a Lab lead of 2.
However in the same poll, when people are asked how they will vote if the leaders are Cameron, Miliband and Clegg (that's right - the current leaders!), has a Con lead of 3.
That is a pretty material difference. And a potentially noteworthy finding.
Not sure if this has already been discussed - apologies if so.
Today's Sunday Times YouGov has a Lab lead of 2.
However in the same poll, when people are asked how they will vote if the leaders are Cameron, Miliband and Clegg (that's right - the current leaders!), there is a Con lead of 3.
That is a pretty material difference. And a potentially noteworthy finding.
So, Margaret Thatcher did not become Prime Minister in 1979 ?
I don't have a betfair account and don't pretend to completely understand it. At the moment there seems to be £18 available willing to back the tories to win at 21. I have to say if there were similar odds available in a forum I did understand I would be tempted to have a nibble at these prices. It is very likely that Reckless will win but if the DNVs DNV then it gets seriously close, much closer than that anyway.
Do we know how many postal votes there are/have been/might be?
If there aren't ,many then the weather might play a part. Looks dry but grey, according to BBC.
I offered a bet at evens that UKIP get 5 or more seats for £100, or our very own spread bet without the spread.
You give me £10 for every seat UKIP get over five, I give you £20 for every seat UKIP get under five.
Given your previous postings regarding us over optimistic Kippers I presume you will bite my hand off.
But I've said I'll be surprised if they get more than 6. I could see them getting 5 or 6 so I can't really see how this is good value for me tbh.
I'll keep my Spreads elsewhere. There is some value around. Mike gave us a hat tip to one the other day.
My mistake, I thought you were saying you have seen it all before, your vast experience and the naivety of us Kippers, UKIP will fizzle out etc etc.
Now you are saying they will get 5 or 6 seats, seems like you have either changed your mind or you are a loud mouthed bottle merchant.
No as it happens I 'think' they will get 2 or 3 seats.
I'm not a huge fan of the 'betcha' responses to any post because we had a bellyful of that from a previous pb poster. No-one could post anything without that sort of response. Which, as it happens, rather shows up your loud-mouthed comment, if you get the drift.
I tell you what though: I will accept a wager with you that UKIP won't poll more than 15% of the national share. Deal?
The way you have been talking and your condescending manner to all Kippers is arrogant beyond belief, now you want to wager they will get 15%? I thought you would offer at least 10%, and if you really think UKIP will get 2 or 3 seats then surely you should accept that bet?
You previously said they will get 5 or 6, and that was only a short time ago, make your mind up.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Must have been Mormons then.
Given we have openly mocked their holy book, I expect we can expect Mormons to start blowing themselves up on public transport then.
To be fair to muslims, if we had whole areas of major cities that were almost entirely Mormon, I would expect there to be similar levels of strife amongst 2nd/3rd generation Mormon immigrants and the non Mormon population
I don't think that, apart from it being damnably difficult to get a drink, Utah's any different to anywhere else in the MidWest, is it. Not been myself, relying on "travellers tales".
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
Which is a very important point to remember when the little Englanders are vociferously thumping their tubs on pb.com. They're a minority in the country, and a widely disliked minority at that. Thankfully.
Yet, your party has lost between a fifth and a quarter of its support to that "widely disliked minority". You can, of course, come back with some patronising remark, or quibble over whether 31.7% is the same as "about 33%" but a sensible Conservative would surely recognise that's a problem.
Will there be 46 signatures to be handed over to the Chairman of the 1922 committee on Friday ?
Tory defeat in R&S has by now been factored into the narrative so much that only a catastrophic result would lead to signatures totalling somewhere near 46: like coming third behind Labour or something.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Must have been Mormons then.
Given we have openly mocked their holy book, I expect we can expect Mormons to start blowing themselves up on public transport then.
To be fair to muslims, if we had whole areas of major cities that were almost entirely Mormon, I would expect there to be similar levels of strife amongst 2nd/3rd generation Mormon immigrants and the non Mormon population
I don't think that, apart from it being damnably difficult to get a drink, Utah's any different to anywhere else in the MidWest, is it. Not been myself, relying on "travellers tales".
Neither have I, but a quick read on wiki tells me there was a lot of strife in the 1850s when the Mormons began to increase in number, so not really a great counter to my argument
The 'report' raises a few questions about 'what' had happened. Plenty of jargon, newspeak and total balls from The Guardian and The Trust.
One of the issues in the Clacton by election was the shortage of GP's in the area. Colchester A&E is the logical choice for patients in the Clacton area who cannot get medical attention otherwise,
Remind me someone, how long has Carswell been the MP for Clacton?
Yes, I KNOW it's a lot more complicated than that but it was one of his by-election issues.
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Must have been Mormons then.
Given we have openly mocked their holy book, I expect we can expect Mormons to start blowing themselves up on public transport then.
To be fair to muslims, if we had whole areas of major cities that were almost entirely Mormon, I would expect there to be similar levels of strife amongst 2nd/3rd generation Mormon immigrants and the non Mormon population
I don't think that, apart from it being damnably difficult to get a drink, Utah's any different to anywhere else in the MidWest, is it. Not been myself, relying on "travellers tales".
Neither have I, but a quick read on wiki tells me there was a lot of strife in the 1850s when the Mormons began to increase in number, so not really a great counter to my argument
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?
Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims
Must have been Mormons then.
Given we have openly mocked their holy book, I expect we can expect Mormons to start blowing themselves up on public transport then.
To be fair to muslims, if we had whole areas of major cities that were almost entirely Mormon, I would expect there to be similar levels of strife amongst 2nd/3rd generation Mormon immigrants and the non Mormon population
I don't think that, apart from it being damnably difficult to get a drink, Utah's any different to anywhere else in the MidWest, is it. Not been myself, relying on "travellers tales".
Will there be 46 signatures to be handed over to the Chairman of the 1922 committee on Friday ?
Only if the defeat is gigantic, I think.
Wouldn't a gigantic defeat for Kelly Tolhurst bring other questions into play. If an Oxford educated barrister can wipe the floor with a populist like Tolhurst what does that say about the electorate of N Kent?
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention) 16/11/2014 12:36 #ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
To be fair to muslims, if we had whole areas of major cities that were almost entirely Mormon, I would expect there to be similar levels of strife amongst 2nd/3rd generation Mormon immigrants and the non Mormon population
I don't think that, apart from it being damnably difficult to get a drink, Utah's any different to anywhere else in the MidWest, is it. Not been myself, relying on "travellers tales".
Neither have I, but a quick read on wiki tells me there was a lot of strife in the 1850s when the Mormons began to increase in number, so not really a great counter to my argument
Would that strife be with the indigenous inhabitants?
Wasn't really meant as a counter; just clarification, as one of the few places in the world where where there has been a substantial Mormon influx.
Sounds similar to the problems where any mass of people immigrate to a new place to me... although I guess the people weren't the indigenous inhabitants.. there was strife between them and the newcomers as well!
Sorry, I didn't mean to be as lippy and argumentative as it scame across in my previous post, my apologies
"Disputes between the Mormon inhabitants and the U.S. government intensified due to prejudice against The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in the Northeast and the practice of plural marriage, or polygamy, among its members. The Mormons were still pushing for the establishment of a State of Deseret with the new borders of the Utah Territory. Most, if not all of the members of the U.S. government opposed the polygamous practices of the Mormons.
Members of the LDS Church were viewed as un-American and rebellious when news of their polygamous practices spread. In 1857, particularly heinous accusations of abdication of government and general immorality were stated by former associate justice William W. Drummond, among others. The detailed reports of life in Utah caused the administration of James Buchanan to send a secret military "expedition" to Utah. When the supposed rebellion should be quelled, Alfred Cumming would take the place of Brigham Young as territorial governor. The resulting conflict is known as the Utah War, nicknamed "Buchanan's Blunder" by the Mormon leaders"
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
Net party like/dislike ratings LAB +6 LD -11 CON -13 UKIP -34
Both far right parties are hated !
You think the Conservatives are far right? Lol. You are Karl Marx and I claim my £5. I'm also going to bill you for the damage caused by tea exiting via my nostrils.
On topic. I have found some evidence, as I mentioned it yesterday, that UKIP does very well in seats that Labour lost more votes than normal in 2010. In my opinion it is disillusioned former 2005 Labour voters, who switched to other parties last time, that form a large part of the UKIP surge. And that is logical since one can say that UKIP is the reaction and the antithesis to Blairism, that it attracts people who were disillusioned by New Labour and it's centrist moderate policies that continue under Cameron.
"“The crisis has shredded voters’ trust in the competence, motives and honesty of establishment politicians who failed to prevent the crisis, have so far failed to resolve it, and who bailed out rich bankers while imposing misery on ordinary voters, but not on themselves,” said Philippe Legrain, a former adviser to the head of the European commission"
In my opinion a system of government than creates an elite should be replaced, because the very essence of a governing system is renewal not elitism, if it creates an elite then it has failed.
Given the falling costs of oil now will this be perfect timing for the coalition given that we know there is some correlation between fuel prices and voting intentions. With domestic fuel price dropping as well it could be a very feel good factor benefitting the coalition in the last few months of the Parliament.
An Autumn statement and a good budget to round things off?
Will there be 46 signatures to be handed over to the Chairman of the 1922 committee on Friday ?
Only if the defeat is gigantic, I think.
Wouldn't a gigantic defeat for Kelly Tolhurst bring other questions into play. If an Oxford educated barrister can wipe the floor with a populist like Tolhurst what does that say about the electorate of N Kent?
That the electorate will vote for a UKIP candidate even if he's been at Oxford and they will not vote for a Tory even if he's a populist.
Given the falling costs of oil now will this be perfect timing for the coalition given that we know there is some correlation between fuel prices and voting intentions. With domestic fuel price dropping as well it could be a very feel good factor benefitting the coalition in the last few months of the Parliament.
An Autumn statement and a good budget to round things off?
POEWAS
Is this due to ISIL selling off oil cheap to get their new currency established?
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
Net party like/dislike ratings LAB +6 LD -11 CON -13 UKIP -34
Both far right parties are hated !
Far right? Conservatives? pure middle of the road, barely more centre right than Blair, certainly no meaningful difference between conservatives now and labour pre crash.
Greetings, my fellow PB Fruitcakes and Assorted Loons!
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 16th November 2014. 11 polls with a total weighted sample of 12,889:
UKIP lose ground for the second week in a row, though the weekend's YouGov and ComRes restricted their loss this week to less than 1%. Tories claw back some ground against Lab as a result. Labour score doesn't seem to have been affected by media campaign against Ed.
"Indeed, the way things are going, there soon won’t be a Europe to be part of. The greater threat to our future is not loss of European markets and investment, but a continent paralysed by political crisis and economically crippled by malfunctioning monetary union."
"With an election looming, Government ministers like to boast of Britain’s superior economic performance, yet the reality is one of increasingly unsustainable policy in a desperate counter to Europe’s contractionary madness. Britain has again joined America as Europe’s consumer of last resort."
"The European Union is failing. Whether we are in or out scarcely seems to matter any more. In imagining it does, many of our leading businesses and politicians are woefully behind the curve. Something will eventually emerge from the wreckage. But whatever it is, it won’t be the status quo."
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
Net party like/dislike ratings LAB +6 LD -11 CON -13 UKIP -34
Both far right parties are hated !
Far right? Conservatives? pure middle of the road, barely more centre right than Blair, certainly no meaningful difference between conservatives now and labour pre crash.
That is the problem, if people voted against New Labour then why would they vote for the Tories who are like New Labour.
I had the joy of bumping into a couple of dozen Britain First loons in Rochester (and a battalion of local and British Transport plod) yesterday afternoon.
I didn't fancy their chances against the 4-500 locals and anti fascist protesters lined up at the station end of the High street who were determined not to let them down it on one of their "marches".
The thing that most riled me - and my non political mates who I'd met there for a pre match drink - was the fact they had the gall to purloin the Union flag as their symbol despite the fact it represents everything those goons are against.
I had the joy of bumping into a couple of dozen Britain First loons in Rochester (and a battalion of local and British Transport plod) yesterday afternoon.
I didn't fancy their chances against the 4-500 locals and anti fascist protesters lined up at the station end of the High street who were determined not to let them down it on one of their "marches".
The thing that most riled me - and my non political mates who I'd met there for a pre match drink - was the fact they had the gall to purloin the Union flag as their symbol despite the fact it represents everything those goons are against.
"Indeed, the way things are going, there soon won’t be a Europe to be part of. The greater threat to our future is not loss of European markets and investment, but a continent paralysed by political crisis and economically crippled by malfunctioning monetary union."
"With an election looming, Government ministers like to boast of Britain’s superior economic performance, yet the reality is one of increasingly unsustainable policy in a desperate counter to Europe’s contractionary madness. Britain has again joined America as Europe’s consumer of last resort."
"The European Union is failing. Whether we are in or out scarcely seems to matter any more. In imagining it does, many of our leading businesses and politicians are woefully behind the curve. Something will eventually emerge from the wreckage. But whatever it is, it won’t be the status quo."
As I've been saying on here for years and years, the basic question to be asking is whether we want to prefer 90% access to a low growth, medium productivity bloc over 80% access to that bloc and 80% access to a whole bunch of markets that are either high growth or high productivity.
(The 90% is EU membership without Eurozone membership. The 80% access is what we'd get with a Canadian style FTA.)
For this is such an obvious no-brainer, I find it shocking that the "serious commentators" get so het up about leaving. I think it's just a combination of people that aren't examining the details of the alternatives on offer and going with the received wisdom, and also a massive status quo bias.
I had the joy of bumping into a couple of dozen Britain First loons in Rochester (and a battalion of local and British Transport plod) yesterday afternoon.
I didn't fancy their chances against the 4-500 locals and anti fascist protesters lined up at the station end of the High street who were determined not to let them down it on one of their "marches".
The thing that most riled me - and my non political mates who I'd met there for a pre match drink - was the fact they had the gall to purloin the Union flag as their symbol despite the fact it represents everything those goons are against.
What flag did you expect them to be waving?
DIdn't say it was a surprise. Just want the knuckleheads to leave it alone. It isn't theirs to abuse.
Been away fow a few days and lost touch with PB and the rest of the normal world.
Can somebody update me please? UKIP's price to win Rochester has dropped to an unbackable low, but I see no sign of further polling. Anything happened to justify it?
I see a rather iffy report from the Express about six potential defectors. Sounds very unlikely to me and I had the impression that Dave was doing well enough to frighten potential traitors back into line. Anything happened to stiffen their resolve, or is it all just 'noise'?
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
Net party like/dislike ratings LAB +6 LD -11 CON -13 UKIP -34
Both far right parties are hated !
Yet? .......In one way though it would be amusing to se Ed win in May so he gets a dose of fiscal reality into that poor befuddled head of his. The economic decisions that will have to be made from the word go will not be him caught in the headlights of reality, it will be total utter and absolute articulated road kill........
In 2020 We will not be back to where we were in 2010 , it will be infinitely worse.
Quite scary words from the ISIS beheaders as they kill another 20 victims
I heard on Friday from a friend of a policeman that the Met are expecting London Shopping Centres to be targeted at Christmas, and they have been warned not to use some running/cycling apps that identify them and their whereabouts as there are plots to take hostage and behead a policeman
Also said we only hear 1/10 of the foiled Islamic terror plots
I had the joy of bumping into a couple of dozen Britain First loons in Rochester (and a battalion of local and British Transport plod) yesterday afternoon.
I didn't fancy their chances against the 4-500 locals and anti fascist protesters lined up at the station end of the High street who were determined not to let them down it on one of their "marches".
The thing that most riled me - and my non political mates who I'd met there for a pre match drink - was the fact they had the gall to purloin the Union flag as their symbol despite the fact it represents everything those goons are against.
What flag did you expect them to be waving?
DIdn't say it was a surprise. Just want the knuckleheads to leave it alone. It isn't theirs to abuse.
I am not one of those people and I don't know any, but it is theirs as much as it is anyone elses isnt it?
I had the joy of bumping into a couple of dozen Britain First loons in Rochester (and a battalion of local and British Transport plod) yesterday afternoon.
I didn't fancy their chances against the 4-500 locals and anti fascist protesters lined up at the station end of the High street who were determined not to let them down it on one of their "marches".
The thing that most riled me - and my non political mates who I'd met there for a pre match drink - was the fact they had the gall to purloin the Union flag as their symbol despite the fact it represents everything those goons are against.
That's the flag under which we colonised India, imposed the hut tax in Africa, invented the concentration camp and conducted the Atlantic slave trade, while back home we kept catholics out of parliament and the universities and women out of the vote, and put up "no dogs, blacks or Irish" signs in our windows, and imprisoned gays for being gay. What is your point?
The rather lamentable article in today's Sunday Times Magazine about Reckless (he's pictured in it wearing a chainmail suit as part of an effort to promote Rochester castle: he's barmy) did, however, contain one interesting observation: Reckless is seemingly still popular in his constituency among ethnic minorities (welcomed in the street by Bangladeshis etc), despite his shift to a so-called 'racist' party.
I think commentators do over-egg how closely the general public equate UKIP with intolerance. Besides, immigrants themselves are often the most against fresh immigration.
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
Net party like/dislike ratings LAB +6 LD -11 CON -13 UKIP -34
Both far right parties are hated !
Yet? .......In one way though it would be amusing to se Ed win in May so he gets a dose of fiscal reality into that poor befuddled head of his. The economic decisions that will have to be made from the word go will not be him caught in the headlights of reality, it will be total utter and absolute articulated road kill........
In 2020 We will not be back to where we were in 2010 , it will be infinitely worse.
Except under an Ed wins scenario, Balls will be making the decisions on finance. You may disagree with him, but you can't say he knows nothing about economics.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 10m10 minutes ago This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week): Lab 33.5%, Con 32.1%, UKIP 15.5%, LD 7.8%
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
The rather lamentable article in today's Sunday Times Magazine about Reckless (he's pictured in it wearing a chainmail suit as part of an effort to promote Rochester castle: he's barmy) did, however, contain one interesting observation: Reckless is seemingly still popular in his constituency among ethnic minorities (welcomed in the street by Bangladeshis etc), despite his shift to a so-called 'racist' party.
I think commentators do over-egg how closely the general public equate UKIP with intolerance. Besides, immigrants themselves are often the most against fresh immigration.
The poll that is kryptonite to people who accuse those against mass immigration of racism
Been away fow a few days and lost touch with PB and the rest of the normal world.
Can somebody update me please? UKIP's price to win Rochester has dropped to an unbackable low, but I see no sign of further polling. Anything happened to justify it?
I see a rather iffy report from the Express about six potential defectors. Sounds very unlikely to me and I had the impression that Dave was doing well enough to frighten potential traitors back into line. Anything happened to stiffen their resolve, or is it all just 'noise'?
Thanks
That Express piece is absolutely dreadful, the sort of crap that further devalues journalists and their papers in the eyes of the public:
Insiders claim Basildon and Billericay MP John Baron is the most likely to cross the floor.
Five others could also make the switch in the coming weeks, according to sources.
Apparently, some bookies are already paying out on a UKIP victory. UKIP will win, it's just a case of how big. The Tories are trying to manage expectations by saying they'd be happy with a Reckless winning margin of less than 10,000 - but I doubt it will be that big, I'm going for 3,000 myself. The Tories will thus claim honorable defeat, attack Labour for slipping to third, and the next big vote is GE 2015.
I'd be surprised if there were any more defections, let alone the Express's ludicrous and unsubtantiated headline claim that 'Six Tory MPs to defect'.
"Indeed, the way things are going, there soon won’t be a Europe to be part of. The greater threat to our future is not loss of European markets and investment, but a continent paralysed by political crisis and economically crippled by malfunctioning monetary union."
"With an election looming, Government ministers like to boast of Britain’s superior economic performance, yet the reality is one of increasingly unsustainable policy in a desperate counter to Europe’s contractionary madness. Britain has again joined America as Europe’s consumer of last resort."
"The European Union is failing. Whether we are in or out scarcely seems to matter any more. In imagining it does, many of our leading businesses and politicians are woefully behind the curve. Something will eventually emerge from the wreckage. But whatever it is, it won’t be the status quo."
I have heard the same refrain for the past 15 years. It's been wrong - rather like the little boy crying wolf.
I see no reason why it cannot be wrong again.
After all, the developed world economies are now receiving the kind of massive stimulus which precedes every major economic recovery and stock market bull run.. A huge transfer of wealth to them - form the oil producing countries..
George W Bush on he and his father's close relationship with Bill Clinton, whether Jeb will run in 2016, how he probably would not have run for Texas governor in 1994 had his father been re-elected, his concerns about growing isolationist feeling in the US and the need to articulate reasons for intervention and the comparisons between Boris Johnson and Churchill! (Behind paywall)
OGH/anotherdave Except Nick Clegg and Miliband are by far the least popular party leaders, and Cameron is more popular than both with Farage most popular of all
The rather lamentable article in today's Sunday Times Magazine about Reckless (he's pictured in it wearing a chainmail suit as part of an effort to promote Rochester castle: he's barmy) did, however, contain one interesting observation: Reckless is seemingly still popular in his constituency among ethnic minorities (welcomed in the street by Bangladeshis etc), despite his shift to a so-called 'racist' party.
I think commentators do over-egg how closely the general public equate UKIP with intolerance. Besides, immigrants themselves are often the most against fresh immigration.
The poll that is kryptonite to people who accuse those against mass immigration of racism
According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country".
The rather lamentable article in today's Sunday Times Magazine about Reckless (he's pictured in it wearing a chainmail suit as part of an effort to promote Rochester castle: he's barmy) did, however, contain one interesting observation: Reckless is seemingly still popular in his constituency among ethnic minorities (welcomed in the street by Bangladeshis etc), despite his shift to a so-called 'racist' party.
I think commentators do over-egg how closely the general public equate UKIP with intolerance. Besides, immigrants themselves are often the most against fresh immigration.
The poll that is kryptonite to people who accuse those against mass immigration of racism
The rather lamentable article in today's Sunday Times Magazine about Reckless (he's pictured in it wearing a chainmail suit as part of an effort to promote Rochester castle: he's barmy) did, however, contain one interesting observation: Reckless is seemingly still popular in his constituency among ethnic minorities (welcomed in the street by Bangladeshis etc), despite his shift to a so-called 'racist' party.
I think commentators do over-egg how closely the general public equate UKIP with intolerance. Besides, immigrants themselves are often the most against fresh immigration.
The poll that is kryptonite to people who accuse those against mass immigration of racism
According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country".
Support for immigration amongst immigrant communities is strongly linked to bringing their own families, friends and cousins over. Thats where it ends...
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.
UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.
ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.
Net party like/dislike ratings LAB +6 LD -11 CON -13 UKIP -34
Both far right parties are hated !
Yet? .......In one way though it would be amusing to se Ed win in May so he gets a dose of fiscal reality into that poor befuddled head of his. The economic decisions that will have to be made from the word go will not be him caught in the headlights of reality, it will be total utter and absolute articulated road kill........
In 2020 We will not be back to where we were in 2010 , it will be infinitely worse.
Except under an Ed wins scenario, Balls will be making the decisions on finance. You may disagree with him, but you can't say he knows nothing about economics.
Prior to 2010 and certainly over the last 4 years we have all seen this economic genius at work that opposed everything and been on the wrong side of just about every economic argument. . Did he actually get anything right? My original point remains with him it simply makes it worse.
The rather lamentable article in today's Sunday Times Magazine about Reckless (he's pictured in it wearing a chainmail suit as part of an effort to promote Rochester castle: he's barmy) did, however, contain one interesting observation: Reckless is seemingly still popular in his constituency among ethnic minorities (welcomed in the street by Bangladeshis etc), despite his shift to a so-called 'racist' party.
I think commentators do over-egg how closely the general public equate UKIP with intolerance. Besides, immigrants themselves are often the most against fresh immigration.
The poll that is kryptonite to people who accuse those against mass immigration of racism
According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country".
Well, don't look at me! I only voted UKIP at the Euro Election!
In any election, when is the last time anyone who was a clear favourite on the day (or say within the last 48 hours) actually lost?
I think the last one I can remember was Kerry v Bush in 2004 when Kerry was about 1.3 based on early rumours of exit polls.
Obviously favourites can lose from a long way out (when opinions actually change in the period up to polling day). But it seems to me that when you get to the last 48 hours the clear favourite wins almost every single time.
I had the joy of bumping into a couple of dozen Britain First loons in Rochester (and a battalion of local and British Transport plod) yesterday afternoon.
I didn't fancy their chances against the 4-500 locals and anti fascist protesters lined up at the station end of the High street who were determined not to let them down it on one of their "marches".
The thing that most riled me - and my non political mates who I'd met there for a pre match drink - was the fact they had the gall to purloin the Union flag as their symbol despite the fact it represents everything those goons are against.
What flag did you expect them to be waving?
At the risk of invoking Godwin's law I would suggest that some form of Swastika would have been more suitable.
In any election, when is the last time anyone who was a clear favourite on the day (or say within the last 48 hours) actually lost?
I think the last one I can remember was Kerry v Bush in 2004 when Kerry was about 1.3 based on early rumours of exit polls.
Obviously favourites can lose from a long way out (when opinions actually change in the period up to polling day). But it seems to me that when you get to the last 48 hours the clear favourite wins almost every single time.
Dunfermline by-election 2006. Labour's last leadership election 2010.
BTW, despite the conservative BJP winning 51% of seats on 31% of the vote at the Indian Election back in May, Sunil on Sunday analysis reveals that 46% of India's votes were actually for Left-wing parties and only 39% for the Right.
On the "liked" and "disliked" figures - what do they actually mean in reality? There can be a big difference between "I dislike Labour" and "I'm willing, knowledgeable and strongly enough motivated to tactically vote against Labour," for example. Is there any literature showing a correlation between like/dislike and support or tactical voting levels?
In any election, when is the last time anyone who was a clear favourite on the day (or say within the last 48 hours) actually lost?
I think the last one I can remember was Kerry v Bush in 2004 when Kerry was about 1.3 based on early rumours of exit polls.
Obviously favourites can lose from a long way out (when opinions actually change in the period up to polling day). But it seems to me that when you get to the last 48 hours the clear favourite wins almost every single time.
Dunfermline by-election 2006. Labour's last leadership election 2010.
Heath, 1970. A famous surprise win over favourite Wilson.
I think the native Americans were there first. Whilst some reservations are alcohol free, I don't think that is because they used to be muslim.
The native americans were just one bunch of migration. Im not sure if they can absolutely claim to be the first, just there before we got there.
The Tierra del Fuegans who live at the far southern end of Argentina/Chile were probably descendants of the first modern humans to live in the Americas.
On the "liked" and "disliked" figures - what do they actually mean in reality? There can be a big difference between "I dislike Labour" and "I'm willing, knowledgeable and strongly enough motivated to tactically vote against Labour," for example. Is there any literature showing a correlation between like/dislike and support or tactical voting levels?
Thatcher and Bliar Blair were hated by millions, but still won three Elections each.
Comments
Not really. At the risk of self-aggrandisement I feel I've done quite enough of that in the world outside ta very much. I quite enjoy posting as I am.
Good point.
You give me £10 for every seat UKIP get over five, I give you £20 for every seat UKIP get under five.
Given your previous postings regarding us over optimistic Kippers I presume you will bite my hand off.
I'll keep my Spreads elsewhere. There is some value around. Mike gave us a hat tip to one the other day.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3450/Labour-are-the-most-popular-party-but-their-leader-lags-behind.aspx
Net party like/dislike ratings
LAB +6
LD -11
CON -13
UKIP -34
Please be ultra careful before posting defamatory comments.
I know some kippers are desperate but not on PB please
Now you are saying they will get 5 or 6 seats, seems like you have either changed your mind or you are a loud mouthed bottle merchant.
I'm not a huge fan of the 'betcha' responses to any post because we had a bellyful of that from a previous pb poster. No-one could post anything without that sort of response. Which, as it happens, rather shows up your loud-mouthed comment, if you get the drift.
I tell you what though: I will accept a wager with you that UKIP won't poll more than 15% of the national share. Deal?
I don't see that it was unfair, and it certainly wasn't flippant. It's the same as the left wringing their hands over 'racist' responses to Rotherham, as opposed to being outraged that it happened in the first place. Surely sympathy should reside with someone who was allegedly raped at 12 years old rather than powerful and wealthy politicians.
I responded to you further down thread at 11.31AM
John Rentoul, like Dan Hodges has a pathological dislike for Ed M. Probably because he would not get a No.10 job if Labour wins. Pathetic s.o.b.
4/11 UKIP
5/2 LD
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/most-votes-match-bet
Conservatives trade at 24, the biggest price they have been
http://sports.betfair.com/?rfr=63&mi=115925336&ex=1&mpch=ads
Stop smearing -if your arguments are strong enough they should stand up by themselves.
The five main versions of Pope Urban II's speech at Clermont in 1095 (which was one of the main factors to kick-start the Crusades) are all riven by a political agenda.
I would go further and state, with some conviction, that you could never understand a text like Matthew's Gospel without realising the sitz im leben of the writer. Things are not what they might, to the untutored reader, appear.
We could have some fun with this but it's perhaps not the place?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/footage-of-syrian-boy-braving-sniper-fire-to-rescue-girl-was-faked-by-norwegian-filmmakers-9862600.html
I bet those film makers were lefties..........!
Today's Sunday Times YouGov has a Lab lead of 2.
However in the same poll, when people are asked how they will vote if the leaders are Cameron, Miliband and Clegg (that's right - the current leaders!), there is a Con lead of 3.
That is a pretty material difference. And a potentially noteworthy finding.
If there aren't ,many then the weather might play a part. Looks dry but grey, according to BBC.
Stalin's Russia or North Korea ?
.
I offered a bet at evens that UKIP get 5 or more seats for £100, or our very own spread bet without the spread.
You give me £10 for every seat UKIP get over five, I give you £20 for every seat UKIP get under five.
Given your previous postings regarding us over optimistic Kippers I presume you will bite my hand off.
But I've said I'll be surprised if they get more than 6. I could see them getting 5 or 6 so I can't really see how this is good value for me tbh.
I'll keep my Spreads elsewhere. There is some value around. Mike gave us a hat tip to one the other day.
My mistake, I thought you were saying you have seen it all before, your vast experience and the naivety of us Kippers, UKIP will fizzle out etc etc.
Now you are saying they will get 5 or 6 seats, seems like you have either changed your mind or you are a loud mouthed bottle merchant.
No as it happens I 'think' they will get 2 or 3 seats.
I'm not a huge fan of the 'betcha' responses to any post because we had a bellyful of that from a previous pb poster. No-one could post anything without that sort of response. Which, as it happens, rather shows up your loud-mouthed comment, if you get the drift.
I tell you what though: I will accept a wager with you that UKIP won't poll more than 15% of the national share. Deal?
The way you have been talking and your condescending manner to all Kippers is arrogant beyond belief, now you want to wager they will get 15%? I thought you would offer at least 10%, and if you really think UKIP will get 2 or 3 seats then surely you should accept that bet?
You previously said they will get 5 or 6, and that was only a short time ago, make your mind up.
Either you are deluded or a troll.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utah#Utah_Territory_.281850.E2.80.931896.29
Remind me someone, how long has Carswell been the MP for Clacton?
Yes, I KNOW it's a lot more complicated than that but it was one of his by-election issues.
Wasn't really meant as a counter; just clarification, as one of the few places in the world where where there has been a substantial Mormon influx.
Sorry, I didn't mean to be as lippy and argumentative as it scame across in my previous post, my apologies
"Disputes between the Mormon inhabitants and the U.S. government intensified due to prejudice against The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in the Northeast and the practice of plural marriage, or polygamy, among its members. The Mormons were still pushing for the establishment of a State of Deseret with the new borders of the Utah Territory. Most, if not all of the members of the U.S. government opposed the polygamous practices of the Mormons.
Members of the LDS Church were viewed as un-American and rebellious when news of their polygamous practices spread. In 1857, particularly heinous accusations of abdication of government and general immorality were stated by former associate justice William W. Drummond, among others. The detailed reports of life in Utah caused the administration of James Buchanan to send a secret military "expedition" to Utah. When the supposed rebellion should be quelled, Alfred Cumming would take the place of Brigham Young as territorial governor. The resulting conflict is known as the Utah War, nicknamed "Buchanan's Blunder" by the Mormon leaders"
I have found some evidence, as I mentioned it yesterday, that UKIP does very well in seats that Labour lost more votes than normal in 2010. In my opinion it is disillusioned former 2005 Labour voters, who switched to other parties last time, that form a large part of the UKIP surge.
And that is logical since one can say that UKIP is the reaction and the antithesis to Blairism, that it attracts people who were disillusioned by New Labour and it's centrist moderate policies that continue under Cameron.
The reaction against what I call the 90's consensus is not only British, it's western, as Guardian explains in this excellent article:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/europes-centre-cannot-hold
"“The crisis has shredded voters’ trust in the competence, motives and honesty of establishment politicians who failed to prevent the crisis, have so far failed to resolve it, and who bailed out rich bankers while imposing misery on ordinary voters, but not on themselves,” said Philippe Legrain, a former adviser to the head of the European commission"
In my opinion a system of government than creates an elite should be replaced, because the very essence of a governing system is renewal not elitism, if it creates an elite then it has failed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2836324/Christmas-presents-pump-Experts-predict-petrol-prices-hit-four-year-low-festive-season-average-price-litre-fuel-expected-drop-120p.html#ixzz3JFKRs3IM
Given the falling costs of oil now will this be perfect timing for the coalition given that we know there is some correlation between fuel prices and voting intentions. With domestic fuel price dropping as well it could be a very feel good factor benefitting the coalition in the last few months of the Parliament.
An Autumn statement and a good budget to round things off?
POEWAS
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/535878/Six-Tory-MPs-to-defect-to-Ukip-if-it-wins-by-election
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) for week-ending 16th November 2014. 11 polls with a total weighted sample of 12,889:
Lab 33.5% (nc)
Con 32.1% (+0.5)
UKIP 15.5% (-0.8)
LD 7.8% (nc)
Lab lead 1.4% (-0.4)
Changes on the very first ELBOW from 17th August:
Lab -2.7%
Con -1.1%
UKIP +2.4%
LD -1.0%
Lab lead -1.6% (ie. was 3.0%, now 1.4%)
UKIP lose ground for the second week in a row, though the weekend's YouGov and ComRes restricted their loss this week to less than 1%. Tories claw back some ground against Lab as a result. Labour score doesn't seem to have been affected by media campaign against Ed.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11229340/Soon-there-wont-be-a-Europe-to-be-part-of.html
"Indeed, the way things are going, there soon won’t be a Europe to be part of. The greater threat to our future is not loss of European markets and investment, but a continent paralysed by political crisis and economically crippled by malfunctioning monetary union."
"With an election looming, Government ministers like to boast of Britain’s superior economic performance, yet the reality is one of increasingly unsustainable policy in a desperate counter to Europe’s contractionary madness. Britain has again joined America as Europe’s consumer of last resort."
"The European Union is failing. Whether we are in or out scarcely seems to matter any more. In imagining it does, many of our leading businesses and politicians are woefully behind the curve. Something will eventually emerge from the wreckage. But whatever it is, it won’t be the status quo."
F1: hundreds of Caterham staff have been made redundant:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30074346
I didn't fancy their chances against the 4-500 locals and anti fascist protesters lined up at the station end of the High street who were determined not to let them down it on one of their "marches".
The thing that most riled me - and my non political mates who I'd met there for a pre match drink - was the fact they had the gall to purloin the Union flag as their symbol despite the fact it represents everything those goons are against.
(The 90% is EU membership without Eurozone membership. The 80% access is what we'd get with a Canadian style FTA.)
For this is such an obvious no-brainer, I find it shocking that the "serious commentators" get so het up about leaving. I think it's just a combination of people that aren't examining the details of the alternatives on offer and going with the received wisdom, and also a massive status quo bias.
Been away fow a few days and lost touch with PB and the rest of the normal world.
Can somebody update me please? UKIP's price to win Rochester has dropped to an unbackable low, but I see no sign of further polling. Anything happened to justify it?
I see a rather iffy report from the Express about six potential defectors. Sounds very unlikely to me and I had the impression that Dave was doing well enough to frighten potential traitors back into line. Anything happened to stiffen their resolve, or is it all just 'noise'?
Thanks
Yet? .......In one way though it would be amusing to se Ed win in May so he gets a dose of fiscal reality into that poor befuddled head of his. The economic decisions that will have to be made from the word go will not be him caught in the headlights of reality, it will be total utter and absolute articulated road kill........
In 2020 We will not be back to where we were in 2010 , it will be infinitely worse.
I heard on Friday from a friend of a policeman that the Met are expecting London Shopping Centres to be targeted at Christmas, and they have been warned not to use some running/cycling apps that identify them and their whereabouts as there are plots to take hostage and behead a policeman
Also said we only hear 1/10 of the foiled Islamic terror plots
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11234090/Peter-Kassigs-family-call-for-restraint-after-beheading-video.html
I think commentators do over-egg how closely the general public equate UKIP with intolerance. Besides, immigrants themselves are often the most against fresh immigration.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 10m10 minutes ago
This week's Sunil on Sunday ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week): Lab 33.5%, Con 32.1%, UKIP 15.5%, LD 7.8%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/534013821304967168
You have noticed UKIP getting more votes than the LDs? Winning a national election? And leading the LDs with all posters for the past two years?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right
Those look pretty exceptional odds if anyone thinks a leadership election is 50:50!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln5QgeCL1fs
Insiders claim Basildon and Billericay MP John Baron is the most likely to cross the floor.
Five others could also make the switch in the coming weeks, according to sources.
Apparently, some bookies are already paying out on a UKIP victory. UKIP will win, it's just a case of how big. The Tories are trying to manage expectations by saying they'd be happy with a Reckless winning margin of less than 10,000 - but I doubt it will be that big, I'm going for 3,000 myself. The Tories will thus claim honorable defeat, attack Labour for slipping to third, and the next big vote is GE 2015.
I'd be surprised if there were any more defections, let alone the Express's ludicrous and unsubtantiated headline claim that 'Six Tory MPs to defect'.
It's been wrong - rather like the little boy crying wolf.
I see no reason why it cannot be wrong again.
After all, the developed world economies are now receiving the kind of massive stimulus which precedes every major economic recovery and stock market bull run.. A huge transfer of wealth to them - form the oil producing countries..
Cheap energy costs produce economic growth.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/newsreview/features/article1483859.ece
According to the survey, 39% of Asian Britons, 34% of white Britons and 21% of black Britons wanted all immigration into the UK to be stopped permanently, or at least until the economy improved. And 43% of Asian Britons, 63% of white Britons and 17% of black Britons agreed with the statement that "immigration into Britain has been a bad thing for the country".
Anyone who read it at the time need not have been surprised by the rise of UKIP
http://populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/download_pdf-310111-Searchlight-Fear-and-Hope-survey.pdf
In any election, when is the last time anyone who was a clear favourite on the day (or say within the last 48 hours) actually lost?
I think the last one I can remember was Kerry v Bush in 2004 when Kerry was about 1.3 based on early rumours of exit polls.
Obviously favourites can lose from a long way out (when opinions actually change in the period up to polling day). But it seems to me that when you get to the last 48 hours the clear favourite wins almost every single time.
Labour's last leadership election 2010.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_India_(Marxist)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_India
BTW, despite the conservative BJP winning 51% of seats on 31% of the vote at the Indian Election back in May, Sunil on Sunday analysis reveals that 46% of India's votes were actually for Left-wing parties and only 39% for the Right.
There can be a big difference between "I dislike Labour" and "I'm willing, knowledgeable and strongly enough motivated to tactically vote against Labour," for example.
Is there any literature showing a correlation between like/dislike and support or tactical voting levels?
BliarBlair were hated by millions, but still won three Elections each.