politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How voting patterns can be very different depending on the

System · November 2014

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How voting patterns can be very different depending on the tactical situation in each constituency

The chart above seeks to look at the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005 and in doing so gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next May.

Read the full story here

Moses_ · November 2014

1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.

DecrepitJohnL · November 2014

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.

Tory win nailed on then. How should we bet?

Moses_ · November 2014

DecrepitJohnL said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Tory win nailed on then. How should we bet?

Lib Dems?
:-)

isam · November 2014

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.

Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?

Gadfly · November 2014

Curse of the new thread.

Here is an updated chart of the averaged YouGov polls during the last 12 months...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/wdjmkap3wabhbwt/YouGov polls 12 months to 16 November 2014.jpg#

The peaks and troughs of blue and purple lines tend to be mirror images of each other, which points towards regular Tory/UKIP bed-hopping. However, over this 12-month period the averaged party shares have actually changed as follows...

The Tory share has risen 0.2 points from 32 to 32.2
The Labour share has fallen 5.4 points from 39.8 to 33.4
The LibDem share has fallen 2.6 points from 9.6 to 7
The UKIP share has risen 4 points from 12 to 16

AlastairMeeks · November 2014

I hope to have a post up in the next few days with some polling analysis that may shed some light on this question.

OldKingCole · November 2014

We’ve been agreeing right through, haven’t we, that in spite of the LD’s keeping the Tories in power, there’s little or no evidence that in seats Like, for example Burnely, Tories will vote tactically.

Monksfield · November 2014

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?

Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.

logical_song · November 2014

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.

No, it's not, thta's UKIP.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/12/icm-poll-ukip-the-least-liked-and-most-disliked-party/

chestnut · November 2014

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.

Yep.

Tories 33 Labour 30 with named leaders this morning.

34-29 or 35-28 really aren't far away.

Sean_F · November 2014

logical_song said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
No, it's not, thta's UKIP.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/12/icm-poll-ukip-the-least-liked-and-most-disliked-party/

I think UKIP would gladly settle for the 29% that have a favourable view of the party. There's clearly potential for the party to grow its support from the current 16% or so.

MikeK · November 2014

FPT.

MikeK Posts: 4,481
10:05AM
Financier said:
Sir John Major putting Marr in his place and putting forward the case of subsidiarity which is written into the EU Agreement but has been by-passed by the Commission. .
----------------
Major, trying his best to trash UKIP on Marr; epic fail. You can almost taste his fear of a free and independent Britain outside the EU.

anotherDave · November 2014

logical_song said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
No, it's not, thta's UKIP.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/12/icm-poll-ukip-the-least-liked-and-most-disliked-party/

One poll from March.

A more recent poll has 34% of all voters seriously considering voting for UKIP.

http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1293/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-poll.htm

Plato · November 2014

I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.

Sean_F · November 2014

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.

I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.

rogerh · November 2014

Unless tactical voting takes place in LD/CON and LD /LAB marginals (ie the majority of LD seats) ,then UNS will be the best way of predicting overall LD seat numbers.The exceptions to UNS are likely to be further downside in seats where LD MP,s are standing down and in University towns where the tuition fee backlash is likely be strongest.
There is hope of some recovery in LD poll ratings nearer to the GE but looking at the last $ GE's the average change in ratings from 6 months out averages around 3% .Using ICM that points to the most favourable position likely to be a 14% share.

david_herdson · November 2014

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.

Being liked is less important than being seen as capable. It's best to be both but if you can only have one, ability is a pre-requisite whereas niceness is a bonus.

DecrepitJohnL · November 2014

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.

Presumably you were surprised at his surprise, given the Conservatives hold almost half the council seats and Eastbourne had a Conservative MP as recently as, erm, 2010.

surbiton · November 2014

I cannot see Labour voters helping out LD in LD/CON seats any more than 2010. Today, we have the history of LD going to bed with the Tories.

Of course, what we cannot see from the figures is what level of tactical voting already existed in 2005 or earlier. I suspect many LD / CON seats already have in situ many Labour tactical voters.

Indigo · November 2014

Looking at the list of recent YouGov polls I hardly see a single poll that isn't

Con: 31% +/- 3%
Lab: 33% +/- 3%

In other words its all been within MoE changes for weeks.

I am not sure how much was can extrapolate when we are saying there is a 95% confidence that the Tory vote is between 28 and 34%, and the Labour vote is between 30 and 36%. If we take 31/33 as the midpoints of those ranges, on a MoE of three percent, there is a 32% give-or-take chance that Lab are actually behind the Tories, and a 68% chance they are actually ahead.

RobD · November 2014

DecrepitJohnL said:

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.
Presumably you were surprised at his surprise, given the Conservatives hold almost half the council seats and Eastbourne had a Conservative MP as recently as, erm, 2010.

There are probably of the order of 300 members per constituency. Wouldn't be that likely to find any.

audreyanne · November 2014

Gadfly said:

audreyanne said:

Gadfly said:
Here is an updated chart of the averaged YouGov polls during the last 12 months...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/wdjmkap3wabhbwt/YouGov polls 12 months to 16 November 2014.jpg#

The peaks and troughs of blue and purple lines tend to mirror each other, which points towards regular Tory/UKIP bed-hopping. However, over this 12-month period the averaged party shares have actually changed as follows...

The Tory share has risen 0.2 points from 32 to 32.2
The Labour share has fallen 5.4 points from 39.8 to 33.4
The LibDem share has fallen 2.6 points from 9.6 to 7
The UKIP share has risen 4 points from 12 to 16
One of the peculiar factors about these graphs is that they don't show Tory-UKIP bed hopping at all.
Here is a rather crude version of my chart that hopefully explains my point about bed-hopping.

I recognise that the long-term trend says otherwise, but those peaks and troughs definitely mirror each other.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/q23vqo3od3y8o8b/audreyanne.jpg#

FPT, Gadfly you've stuck a few arrows in at the points where you hope to establish your thesis, but you could actually stick in arrows at 30 other places to disprove it

I'll grant you there are two or three mirror points, but lots that aren't.

The rolling polls show the Conservatives almost flat-lined for 12 months: a slight upslope. LibDems slid but are now picking up. The two real movers and shakers are Labour down and UKIP up: almost in tandem, even though we 'know' from polling those two events are supposed to be unrelated

audreyanne · November 2014

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.

With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.

Roger · November 2014

"Being liked is less important than being seen as capable. It's best to be both but if you can only have one, ability is a pre-requisite whereas niceness is a bonus."

Certainly true but after today's revelation that the 'haves' have benefited to the detriment of the 'have nots' during Osbornes tenure I think Ed has been handed the trump card. I suspect Labour's next move is to target IDS. A massive target for left of centre voters and straight out of the SNP playlist

HurstLlama · November 2014

"What they [the Conservative Party] need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating."

Fraser Nelson's column in today's Telegraph should give them a clue.

MarkHopkins · November 2014

Gadfly said:
Curse of the new thread.

Here is an updated chart of the averaged YouGov polls during the last 12 months...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/wdjmkap3wabhbwt/YouGov polls 12 months to 16 November 2014.jpg#

The peaks and troughs of blue and purple lines tend to be mirror images of each other, which points towards regular Tory/UKIP bed-hopping. ...

I'll raise you this...

A chart of last 12 month YouGov - ordered by UKIP share (not date)

As UKIP rises, most of the losses are from Labour.

The "bed-hopping" is not direct swap of votes. It may that factors that increase UKIP share, decrease the likelihood of a Conservative voting, but without a direct swap.

john_zims · November 2014

@MikeK

'Major, trying his best to trash UKIP on Marr; epic fail. You can almost taste his fear of a free and independent Britain outside the EU.'

Yes,absolutely terrified.

It's the way you tell em.

Sean_F · November 2014

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.

Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.

Financier · November 2014

FPT

MikeK said:

» show previous quotes
Major, trying his best to trash UKIP on Marr; epic fail. You can almost taste his fear of a free and independent Britain outside the EU.

Either you did not listen or do not understand. Subsidiarity is the principle that all things are decided by national governments unless there is a extra-special case where a EU decision is required. Sir John was saying that the Commission had over-ridden this principle that is written into the EU agreement and it needed to be brought back to the fore.

Also he said that he knew what UKIP is against but not what it stands for except on the EU and immigration. That is not trashing but asking a legitimate question - perhaps you might like to write an open letter to him and fill in the gaps on the other matters of policy.

Richard_Tyndall · November 2014

john_zims said:
@MikeK

'Major, trying his best to trash UKIP on Marr; epic fail. You can almost taste his fear of a free and independent Britain outside the EU.'

Yes,absolutely terrified.

It's the way you tell em.

Well he certainly failed with his claims that we could trust the EU. He said he thought he had the principle of subsidiarity wrapped up and water tight in the Maastricht Treaty but the EU managed to unpick it. That was his claim not mine.

If you can't rely on something you believe you have watertight in a treaty then how the hell can you believe the EU will abide by any other agreements including any future treaties?

JonnyJimmy · November 2014

Think I've just spotted a move in the ladbrokes next defector market; John Baron now 3/1 (think he was 4/1 earlier)

Financier · November 2014

Looking at YouGov polls for this month, 2010 LAB still losing retention mainly to Green as is redLAB ex2010LD even more so to Green.

MikeSmithson · November 2014

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.

The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.

audreyanne · November 2014

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.

Yep. There's just one teeny weeny event you may have overlooked

Prior to the Falklands the Tories were languishing in the 20's. They rocketed up as much as 20%, even topping 50%, in the polls thanks to the Margaret Thatcher inspired victory.

audreyanne · November 2014

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.

That's a joke, right, Mike? I mean you think prior to the Falklands that Mrs T was widely perceived as standing up for ordinary people?

The Falklands changed everything for Mrs Thatcher and probably therefore the next 20 years of British politics.

Re. the poll you have now latched onto as your latest peg on which to hang everything people will say anything you want them to when prompted. I mean, that prompted question doesn't give you any qualms as an objective political commentator?!

Indigo · November 2014

Financier said:

Also he said that he knew what UKIP is against but not what it stands for except on the EU and immigration. That is not trashing but asking a legitimate question - perhaps you might like to write an open letter to him and fill in the gaps on the other matters of policy.

This is the problem with not having some extra-parliamentary way of the population pushing through changes. At the moment if a group of people feel strongly about an issues, Europe, legalising cannabis, whatever, the standard reply is to get members elected then you can make the changes you want. The problem is this is nonsense on stilts, because it not only means you need to get a whole rafts of members elected, and be lucky enough to get them elected in a time where you might make enough difference in votes to be taken seriously by a major party. It almost means people immediately start telling you that you need a complete policy platform and to have opinions on all manner of issues.

Suppose you dont want to run the country, or even be a junior partner in a coalition, but your policy has a lot of popular support, how do you effect change? This is particularly the case in the UK at the moment, if for example you were in favour of an issue, and you had a lot of support, and you suspected you might even have the majority of support for your view, who do you tell your supporters to vote for, if none of the major parties have that as part of their platform.

Carswell would say the answer is direct democracy, and I have a lot of time for that idea, but at the very least there is a need for binding citizen initiated referenda, such as exist in the many states of USA, in the guise of "propositions" or "ballot measures". Then the need for single issue parties becomes much more marginal, and voters that feel strongly about issues that are not supported by their prefered party, or indeed any party have a way to imposed their collective will on the executive.

Sean_F · November 2014

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
Yep. There's just one teeny weeny event you may have overlooked

Prior to the Falklands the Tories were languishing in the 20's. They rocketed up as much as 20% in the polls thanks to the Margaret Thatcher inspired victory.

The Tories had actually recovered to level-pegging, in the polls, immediately prior to the Falklands.

HYUFD · November 2014

Leanne Wood delivered solidarity speech from PC at SNP conference yesterday
https://www.facebook.com/leanne.wood.714?fref=nf

audreyanne · November 2014

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
Yep. There's just one teeny weeny event you may have overlooked

Prior to the Falklands the Tories were languishing in the 20's. They rocketed up as much as 20% in the polls thanks to the Margaret Thatcher inspired victory.
The Tories had actually recovered to level-pegging, in the polls, immediately prior to the Falklands.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1979-1983

Their polling was almost identical with now, thus demolishing the 'argument' you were trying to make about Cameron.

Next?

Sean_F · November 2014

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.

I'm not sure it's a bigger negative, but it is a negative. And, it's a negative for the whole Conservative Party, not just its leader.

What's striking to me is how the Conservatives have remained on 33% or so of the vote since 1997. The Labour vote has obviously declined: there's less anti-Conservative tactical voting; and the party's vote is more efficiently distributed. So, there's no danger of the party being reduced to 166 seats again. The party has also clearly gained voters, to offset deaths and switchers to UKIP. but, it hasn't gained enough.

audreyanne · November 2014

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.

Just in case you have forgotten, Sean, this was your original point.

You failed to mention The Falklands.

Cameron does not have the luxury of a war with all the attendant jingoism that accompanied the recapture of the islands, the tide of which swept Mrs T to power and Labour out of office for another 14 years.

Really, there is selective memory and then there's revisionism writ large.

TCPoliticalBetting · November 2014

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.

How do you read the battle in Eastbourne? The LD MP comes across as a bit odd but has he embedded himself deep enough to win again?

Richard_Tyndall · November 2014

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
Just in case you have forgotten, Sean, this was your original point.

You failed to mention The Falklands.

Cameron does not have the luxury of a war with all the attendant jingoism that accompanied the recapture of the islands, the tide of which swept Mrs T to power and Labour out of office for another 14 years.

Really, there is selective memory and then there's revisionism writ large.

Um. The Falklands didn't sweep Mrs T to power nor did it sweep Labour out of office. She was already in power and Labour had been out of office for the last 4 years on the back of their atrocious handling of the economy and failure to deal with the unions.

That is a whopper of selective (or rather false) memory from you there Audrey

audreyanne · November 2014

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.

What's striking to me is how the Conservatives have remained on 33% or so of the vote since 1997.

1997 30.7%
2001 31.7%
2005 32.3%
2010 36.1%

Keep it up Sean. If indeed it is you, rather than one of your kids sitting on your computer?

john_zims · November 2014

@HYUFD

'Leanne Wood delivered solidarity speech from PC at SNP conference yesterday'

Was there anyone left in the hall at the end of her speech?

Sean_F · November 2014

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
Just in case you have forgotten, Sean, this was your original point.

You failed to mention The Falklands.

Cameron does not have the luxury of a war with all the attendant jingoism that accompanied the recapture of the islands, the tide of which swept Mrs T to power and Labour out of office for another 14 years.

Really, there is selective memory and then there's revisionism writ large.

Without the Falklands War, there's little doubt the Conservatives would still have won quite comfortably in June 1983. My point is the Conservatives had little difficulty winning 40% of the vote back then.

Gadfly · November 2014

audreyanne said:

Gadfly said:

audreyanne said:

Gadfly said:
Here is an updated chart of the averaged YouGov polls during the last 12 months...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/wdjmkap3wabhbwt/YouGov polls 12 months to 16 November 2014.jpg#

The peaks and troughs of blue and purple lines tend to mirror each other, which points towards regular Tory/UKIP bed-hopping. However, over this 12-month period the averaged party shares have actually changed as follows...

The Tory share has risen 0.2 points from 32 to 32.2
The Labour share has fallen 5.4 points from 39.8 to 33.4
The LibDem share has fallen 2.6 points from 9.6 to 7
The UKIP share has risen 4 points from 12 to 16
One of the peculiar factors about these graphs is that they don't show Tory-UKIP bed hopping at all.
Here is a rather crude version of my chart that hopefully explains my point about bed-hopping.

I recognise that the long-term trend says otherwise, but those peaks and troughs definitely mirror each other.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/q23vqo3od3y8o8b/audreyanne.jpg#

FPT, Gadfly you've stuck a few arrows in at the points where you hope to establish your thesis, but you could actually stick in arrows at 30 other places to disprove it I'll grant you there are two or three mirror points, but lots that aren't.

OK, I have now somewhat crudely inverted the UKIP line in Photoshop and pasted it beneath the Tory line. The top lines are pretty much moving in lockstep IMHO...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/c8pl8n5lr5p6tlr/audreyanne1.jpg#

To demonstrate your wider point I have also produced a 20-poll moving average for the period since early June 2012 when the current polling trend began...

http://www.mediafire.com/view/hadcqumcnx6vh37/audreyanne2.jpg#

During that period the averaged shares have changed as follows...

The Tory share has fallen 0.10 points from 32.25 to 32.15
The Labour share has fallen 10.30 points from 43.45 to 33.15
The LibDem share has fallen 0.90 points from 8.05 to 7.15
The UKIP share has risen 8.20 points from 9.90 to 16.10

I do not however believe that this is the result of a direct slip from Labour to UKIP. The Tories are jumping in and out of bed with UKIP, and some are undoubtedly staying there, but something else is going on, for the Tory share to remain so consistent.

audreyanne · November 2014

Richard_Tyndall said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.

Really, there is selective memory and then there's revisionism writ large.
Um. The Falklands didn't sweep Mrs T to power

I'm afraid it did. I remember it well. She was heading for big trouble in 1982. The goodwill which had accompanied her election in 1979 was fading. The Guardian puts it well:

'On taking office she showered money on public sector unions, and her "cuts" were only to planned increases, mild compared with today's. Yet by the autumn of 1981 they had made her so unpopular that bets were being taken at the October party conference that she would be "gone by Christmas".

What saved Thatcher's bacon, and revolutionised her leadership, was Labour's unelectable Michael Foot – and the Falklands war. Whatever Tory historians like to claim, this was the critical turning point. By delivering a crisp, emphatic victory Thatcher showed the world, and more important herself, what a talent for solitary command could achieve. From then on she disregarded her critics and became intolerant of any who were "not one of us".'

http://www.realclearworld.com/2013/04/09/how_the_falklands_war_saved_thatcher_146989.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-10377114
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/apr/01/falklands-war-thatcher-30-years
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/9980046/Margaret-Thatcher-and-the-Falklands-War-doubts-and-fears-in-a-far-off-conflict-that-changed-Britain.html
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-wet-transformed-by-war

HYUFD · November 2014

John Zims Some Scots with Welsh relatives?

audreyanne · November 2014

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
Just in case you have forgotten, Sean, this was your original point.

Really, there is selective memory and then there's revisionism writ large.
Without the Falklands War, there's little doubt the Conservatives would still have won quite comfortably in June 1983. My point is the Conservatives had little difficulty winning 40% of the vote back then.

Which is quite a shift in your original argument, so thank you for that.

I'm still, nevertheless, unsure how substantial an argument you can build out of something which didn't happen and imagining how they might have performed without the Falklands. Tacking on the comment that 'there's little doubt,' when there is manifestly plenty of doubt doesn't make your point any stronger.

Without The Falklands we simply don't know. She was very unpopular. True, however, Foot was a walking disaster.

But The Falklands changed everything.

RodCrosby · November 2014

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.
How do you read the battle in Eastbourne? The LD MP comes across as a bit odd but has he embedded himself deep enough to win again?

Don't Ashcroft and electionforecast.co.uk have Eastbourne turning into a LibDem stronghold?

Sean_F · November 2014

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.

What's striking to me is how the Conservatives have remained on 33% or so of the vote since 1997.
1997 30.7%
2001 31.7%
2005 32.3%
2010 36.1%

Keep it up Sean. If indeed it is you, rather than one of your kids sitting on your computer?

As I said, 33% or so. I could have "within 2.3 - 3.1% of 33%.". Cameroons used to call this "flatlining."

logical_song · November 2014

anotherDave said:

logical_song said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
No, it's not, thta's UKIP.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/03/12/icm-poll-ukip-the-least-liked-and-most-disliked-party/
One poll from March.

A more recent poll has 34% of all voters seriously considering voting for UKIP.

http://www.comres.co.uk/poll/1293/sunday-mirror-independent-on-sunday-poll.htm

It's well known that the answer you get is affected strongly by the question. These are two separate questions and not necessarily contradictory.
It makes sense to me that UKIP are seen as most extreme and therefore most likely to polarise opinion.

AndyJS · November 2014

Interesting fact:

The Falklands War was mentioned once during the BBC's 1983 election programme, (by David Owen in Plymouth).

AndyJS · November 2014

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.

Was he slightly disappointed to learn you don't live in the Eastbourne constituency (assuming that's still true?)

audreyanne · November 2014

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.

What's striking to me is how the Conservatives have remained on 33% or so of the vote since 1997.
1997 30.7%
2001 31.7%
2005 32.3%
2010 36.1%

Keep it up Sean. If indeed it is you, rather than one of your kids sitting on your computer?
As I said, 33% or so. I could have "within 2.3 - 3.1% of 33%.". Cameroons used to call this "flatlining."

Sean honestly. Has moving to UKIP addled your brain or led you to distort facts? They've gone from 30.7% to 36.1%. Those aren't opinion polls or MoE figures: they are the actual votes cast in the elections in % share. You said they had flatlined and put on nothing. Actually they have increased their share by 5.4%. The last swing in 2010 from Labour to Conservative was 5.2%. If they were to repeat the progress from 2010 they would be knocking on 40% with a thumping majority. I'm not saying that will happen, but please stop conjuring up non-existent facts, there's a good boy.

DavidL · November 2014

The most interesting of those 3 charts is the Lib Dems. In Con/Lab seats their vote was up 3.3% and in Lab/Con they were up 0.6%. . These are the voters who in large part returned home and gave Ed his lead in the opinion polls. They are also the section of the electorate that threaten the tories most, even more than UKIP, because they are in the key battleground seats.

If those who turned away from Brown in disgust return to Labour in seats like Broxtowe then the Tories will have a very hard time in holding those seats.

Conversely, this is a share of their support the Lib Dems can most afford to lose. That 3.3% +0.6% increase produced next to no seats and will lose them none next time.

The battleground for the Lib Dems are in seats where they already lost modest shares of the vote the last time (hence the fall in seats despite the increase in vote). At the moment they are facing the risk of something over a 5% swing in these seats which would be fairly catastrophic. Their challenge is to do the opposite of last time and do better (or at least not as badly) in the seats they actually did worst in the last time.

AndyJS · November 2014

The local election results in Eastbourne have been very encouraging for the LDs, although that doesn't always follow through to the GE.

ThomasNashe · November 2014

AndyJS said:
The local election results in Eastbourne have been very encouraging for the LDs, although that doesn't always follow through to the GE.

Is Maria Hutchings still the candidate? If so, LD hold I'd say.

David_Evershed · November 2014

AndyJS said:
Interesting fact:

The Falklands War was mentioned once during the BBC's 1983 election programme, (by David Owen in Plymouth).

The Falklands war helped Thatcher because it showed she was brave enough to stand up against thugs and was a winner - rather than because of the war itself.

Later she showed the same bravery and some skill standing up against some trade unionist thugs and supporting Nottinghamshire miners.

ThomasNashe · November 2014

On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?

ThomasNashe · November 2014

David_Evershed said:

AndyJS said:
Interesting fact:

The Falklands War was mentioned once during the BBC's 1983 election programme, (by David Owen in Plymouth).
The Falklands war helped Thatcher because it showed she was brave enough to stand up against thugs and was a winner - rather than because of the war itself.

Later she showed the same bravery and some skill standing up against some trade unionist thugs and supporting Nottinghamshire miners.

Mike is right about Cameron's comparative shortcomings. The image of Thatcher as the no nonsense grocer's daughter from the provinces was an important part of her appeal to many lower-middle classes and working classes who had traditionally voted Labour.

MikeSmithson · November 2014

ThomasNashe said:
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?

Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.

UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.

john_zims · November 2014

@ThomasNashe

'Is Maria Hutchings still the candidate? If so, LD hold I'd say.'

Wrong constituency,Maria Hutchings was the Tory candidate in Eastleigh.

JonnyJimmy · November 2014

ThomasNashe said:
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?

That possibility is why I'd love to see a UKIP/Lab vote share match bet market. If the price was right I'd get on UKIP. I'd want at least 20/1 though

Smarmeron · November 2014

@David_Evershed
Do you mean thugs like those at Orgreave?

Morris_Dancer · November 2014

Mr. Smithson, a broad like/dislike is of somewhat limited use, though. We all get just one vote to cast (well, postal voting sometimes excepted...) and don't get an anti-vote. If people kind of like Labour and don't vote for them, but those who like UKIP are fired up to vote, the like/dislike measure won't be all that helpful as a guide.

Scott_P · November 2014

@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd

ThomasNashe · November 2014

john_zims said:
@ThomasNashe

'Is Maria Hutchings still the candidate? If so, LD hold I'd say.'

Wrong constituency,Maria Hutchings was the Tory candidate in Eastleigh.

Thanks. Mea culpa.

john_zims · November 2014

@Smarmeron

'Do you mean thugs like those at Orgreave?'

Or maybe the thugs that killed a taxi driver.

'Killing of David Wilkie - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_David_Wilkie

Main article: UK miners' strike (1984–1985) ... when two striking miners dropped a concrete block from a footbridge onto his taxi whilst he was driving ... He was working in Treforest, Mid Glamorgan as a taxi driver, driving a Ford Cortina for City ...

ThomasNashe · November 2014

MikeSmithson said:

ThomasNashe said:
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.

UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.

Yes. I really doubt it too. I was just questioning Moses's prediction. I don't actually see how it is possible for EdM to perform below expectations.

Smarmeron · November 2014

@john_zims
As far as I am aware, those people were caught and punished.
What about the thugs at Orgreave though?

Paul_Mid_Beds · November 2014

AndyJS said:
The local election results in Eastbourne have been very encouraging for the LDs, although that doesn't always follow through to the GE.

The election maps since 1950 are quite interesting because they show that the liberal march through rock solid Tory seats in the 1990s wasn't quite without historical precedent.

There was a big swing to Liberals in Eastbourne in 1970, and in 1964 there were big swings to the Liberals in Eastbourne, Mid Sussex, Rye and Hastings, Mid Dorset, Kingston and Surbiton, and various other places that now have Libdem MPs

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=184794.0

I guess that the success of the Libdems in those seats was because they had always been the only realistic option, probably the only other party in those seats with any sort of robust organisation and when the Tories became VERY unpopular benefited.

Another poster noticed that UKIP are doing well in seats which swung hard towards the Tories in 2010.

Looking at those maps, the seats are seats that swung most hard back and forth between Tory and Labour in most elections since 1959

Essentially the voters there seem to have no great affection towards either Tory or Labour and are most likely to change their voting pattern from election to election.

We think of marginals as having a solid tory and labour base with a few switchers deciding it. Seems that in these it is the reverse that is the case. Most voters have no great affection for either.

SquareRoot · November 2014

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd

entirely unsurprising. But Ed's name isn't going be be on every voting slip.

I was in a pub when Ed gave his speech, and a guy turned to his mate and said "" He's weird" Nuff said.

isam · November 2014

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd

The figures for should ed stay or be replaced are 47/34 in his favour amongst labour voters

Wouldn't this be better than his support level amongst labour voters at the time of the leadership election?

FluffyThoughts · November 2014

ThomasNashe said:

Mike is right about Cameron's comparative shortcomings.

A broken clock in a twenty four hour epoch proves a simple truth: You can guess the rest....

anotherDave · November 2014

MikeSmithson said:

ThomasNashe said:
On topic, I think this is the most difficult to predict GE of all time. And though Moses does not put any figure on his predictions, if EdM really does fall below the expectations people have of his performance, are we then talking about a sub-20% score for Labour?
Doubt it. Remember that LAB is the most liked and least disliked party . The brand is strong even though EdM pulls it down a bit.

UKIP, in the same ipsos-MORI poll, was the least liked and most disliked party.

ComRes favourability index consistently shows the LDs to be the least liked party. That tallies with the VI polling too.

http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/08/23/conservative-image-detoxified-at-last/

JonnyJimmy · November 2014

isam said:

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd
The figures for should ed stay or be replaced are 47/34 in his favour amongst labour voters

Wouldn't this be better than his support level amongst labour voters at the time of the leadership election?

But this is against an unspecified anyone-but-weird-Ed candidate.

The leadership contest wasn't a for or against Ed vote, he actually had opponents.

JohnO · November 2014

Smarmeron said:
@john_zims
As far as I am aware, those people were caught and punished.
What about the thugs at Orgreave though?

I suppose some of them returned to the pits after the strike.

Yorkcity · November 2014

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd
entirely unsurprising. But Ed's name isn't going be be on every voting slip.

I was in a pub when Ed gave his speech, and a guy turned to his mate and said "" He's weird" Nuff said.

Was there a period when Camerons Conservative was going to be put on every voting slip ?

Seem to remember a by election.

However that would sort it for Conservatives supporters, if he is more popular than his party.

isam · November 2014

JonnyJimmy said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd
The figures for should ed stay or be replaced are 47/34 in his favour amongst labour voters

Wouldn't this be better than his support level amongst labour voters at the time of the leadership election?
But this is against an unspecified anyone-but-weird-Ed candidate.

The leadership contest wasn't a for or against Ed vote, he actually had opponents.

I don't see that makes much difference, in fact I'd say that makes it better for him

Edit... No it doesn't make it better for him... But I don't think it makes that much difference

Plato · November 2014

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.
How do you read the battle in Eastbourne? The LD MP comes across as a bit odd but has he embedded himself deep enough to win again?

I'm out canvassing for the local lady PPC next weekend. I haven't met the LD yet - will dig them out and see how they are. Will report back - been a long time since I was in any other than a safe seat.

JonnyJimmy · November 2014

isam said:

JonnyJimmy said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd
The figures for should ed stay or be replaced are 47/34 in his favour amongst labour voters

Wouldn't this be better than his support level amongst labour voters at the time of the leadership election?
But this is against an unspecified anyone-but-weird-Ed candidate.

The leadership contest wasn't a for or against Ed vote, he actually had opponents.
I don't see that makes much difference, in fact I'd say that makes it better for him

Edit... No it doesn't make it better for him... But I don't think it makes that much difference

I'm not sure how that works.. What do you think the result of the same question would have been were it asked the day after he was elected? I shouldn't have thought that a third of their supporters wanted to ditch him then, even if they didn't vote for him

Edit, your edit came in after I wrote that, but I think my question's still valid

Plato · November 2014

I do now. Was Wealden.

AndyJS said:

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.
Was he slightly disappointed to learn you don't live in the Eastbourne constituency (assuming that's still true?)

JonnyJimmy · November 2014

Yorkcity said:

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd
entirely unsurprising. But Ed's name isn't going be be on every voting slip.

I was in a pub when Ed gave his speech, and a guy turned to his mate and said "" He's weird" Nuff said.
Was there a period when Camerons Conservative was going to be put on every voting slip ?

Seem to remember a by election.

However that would sort it for Conservatives supporters, if he is more popular than his party.

Is he more popular than his party amongst kippers? I doubt it, so don't think it'd help him in seats where UKIP are the danger..

nigel4england · November 2014

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
UKIP won't do as well as everyone expects
Ed will do far worse than anyone expects.
Moses has very succinctly summed up what the majority of people will go around the houses to say in the next few hours, is there any need for further comments?
Indeed, the usual PB Tory crowd will come up with the conclusion that they're nailed on for a majority. Let's not forget that whilst people might not like Ed, the least liked party is the Tories, and when tactical voting is involved, the Tories will be hit hardest.
I think it's very likely the Conservatives will be the biggest party, but short of a majority. What they need to ponder is why they aren't heading for a thumping win against a party whose leader has an 18% approval rating.
With the greatest of respect they don't need to be pondering anything of the sort. They had a 5% swing Lab to Con last time ending 13 years of Labour Government, and I'm expecting a similar movement again next year. Remember that austerity is never an easy package to sell to voters, but the benefits of what they have done in attempting to sort out Labour's mess will be driven home as a core message .

I continue to rate the chances of an outright Conservative win at 80%+. Those who share my view will need to hold their nerve on Friday 21st, especially on here when I anticipate the normal breathless threaders about the end of Conservatism blah blah.

A week is a long time in politics. Six months is an eternity.
Go back to 1983, and we had 3m unemployed. Those were hard times. Yet the Conservatives finished up 16% ahead of Labour. And Ed Milliband is more poorly rated than Michael Foot was.
The big difference between now and 1983 is that the Tories have a leader who is widely perceived as "not standing up for ordinary people" as seen in latest ComRes polling. This might be a bigger negative electorally, than EdM's problems.

What's striking to me is how the Conservatives have remained on 33% or so of the vote since 1997.
1997 30.7%
2001 31.7%
2005 32.3%
2010 36.1%

Keep it up Sean. If indeed it is you, rather than one of your kids sitting on your computer?

Audrey, I offered you a bet on how many seats UKIP will get, that was a few days ago and I have been on a short break and have no idea if you answered.

Are you interested in showing us all how clever you are?

AndyJS · November 2014

Maria Hutchings was the candidate in Eastleigh not Eastbourne. The Tory candidate there is Caroline Ansell:

http://carolineansell.co.uk

Itajai · November 2014

Smarmeron said:
@David_Evershed
Do you mean thugs like those at Orgreave?

Or perhaps those who murdered the South Wales taxi driver. Same ones that Labour never condemned.

Itajai · November 2014

Smarmeron said:
@john_zims
As far as I am aware, those people were caught and punished.
What about the thugs at Orgreave though?

So that makes it perfectly ok.
Right.

isam · November 2014

JonnyJimmy said:

isam said:

JonnyJimmy said:

isam said:

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd
The figures for should ed stay or be replaced are 47/34 in his favour amongst labour voters

Wouldn't this be better than his support level amongst labour voters at the time of the leadership election?
But this is against an unspecified anyone-but-weird-Ed candidate.

The leadership contest wasn't a for or against Ed vote, he actually had opponents.
I don't see that makes much difference, in fact I'd say that makes it better for him

Edit... No it doesn't make it better for him... But I don't think it makes that much difference
I'm not sure how that works.. What do you think the result of the same question would have been were it asked the day after he was elected? I shouldn't have thought that a third of their supporters wanted to ditch him then, even if they didn't vote for him

Edit, your edit came in after I wrote that, but I think my question's still valid

I don't think the day after he was elected would be the right time to ask the question. I think the comparison would be during the leadership contest and now

MikeK · November 2014

United With Israel ‏@UniteWithIsrael 1h1 hour ago
Turkish President Claims Muslims, Not Columbus, Discovered America - http://unitedwithisrael.org/turkish-president-claims-muslims-not-columbus-discovered-america/ …

JohnO · November 2014

Plato said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Plato said:
I was canvassed for the first time ever yesterday - by a Tory in Eastbourne. I got the impression that he was very pleasantly surprised to meet another card carrying one.
How do you read the battle in Eastbourne? The LD MP comes across as a bit odd but has he embedded himself deep enough to win again?
I'm out canvassing for the local lady PPC next weekend. I haven't met the LD yet - will dig them out and see how they are. Will report back - been a long time since I was in any other than a safe seat.

Stephen Lloyd is the LibDem MP and used to be periodic poster on pb before 2010. I had some correspondence with him (and he paid a bet immediately!) and he seems a genuinely nice bloke. His record is strongly pro-coalition and, unlike many other LibDem backbenches, hasn't gone out of his way to attack the Conservatives.

Nevertheless I hope your blue lady prevails in May.

isam · November 2014

Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention)
16/11/2014 12:36
#ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.

isam · November 2014

Why don't we treat Boko Haram like ISIS?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/11/13/boko-haram-is-acting-increasingly-like-the-islamic-state-why-dont-we-treat-it-that-way/

Itajai · November 2014

isam said:
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention)
16/11/2014 12:36
#ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.

Is that the religion of peace again?

Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...

Yorkcity · November 2014

JonnyJimmy said:

Yorkcity said:

SquareRoot said:

Scott_P said:
@JohnRentoul: Large "EdM Effect" in YouGov today. Naming party leaders changes Lab lead of 2pts to Tory lead of 3pts http://t.co/zoTDCdIFOJ page 4

@JohnRentoul: 34% of Labour voters think the party should change leader: YouGov via @anthonyjwells http://t.co/wPufSsVlor

#WeBackEd
entirely unsurprising. But Ed's name isn't going be be on every voting slip.

I was in a pub when Ed gave his speech, and a guy turned to his mate and said "" He's weird" Nuff said.
Was there a period when Camerons Conservative was going to be put on every voting slip ?

Seem to remember a by election.

However that would sort it for Conservatives supporters, if he is more popular than his party.
Is he more popular than his party amongst kippers? I doubt it, so don't think it'd help him in seats where UKIP are the danger..

True maybe in Tory / Lab marginals if they can be defined in this new climate.

In the Ealing Southall by election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ealing_Southall_by-election,_2007

On the ballot paper, Lit was described as "David Cameron's Conservative.

However they still did not win the seat.

isam · November 2014

Itajai said:

isam said:
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention)
16/11/2014 12:36
#ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?

Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...

He said they weren't muslims

Itajai · November 2014

isam said:

Itajai said:

isam said:
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention)
16/11/2014 12:36
#ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?

Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims

Must have been Mormons then.

Given we have openly mocked their holy book, I expect we can expect Mormons to start blowing themselves up on public transport then.

edmundintokyo · November 2014

isam said:
Why don't we treat Boko Haram like ISIS?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/11/13/boko-haram-is-acting-increasingly-like-the-islamic-state-why-dont-we-treat-it-that-way/

Less oil, area not very strategically important.

audreyanne · November 2014

isam said:

Itajai said:

isam said:
Julie Lenarz (@MsIntervention)
16/11/2014 12:36
#ISIS just released mass beheading video featuring Jihadi John. 20+ men lined up all having heads cut off same time. God have mercy on us.
Is that the religion of peace again?

Did Call Me Dave come out with the usual claptrap about the vast majority of blah blah blah drone drone drone...
He said they weren't muslims

Which is true. It's a bit like saying the Crusaders were Christians. There's an element of truth about it i.e. they select texts and use them. However, like the Crusaders, these jihadists are really inspired by geo-politics. Islam does not sanction the murdering of innocents.

Nevertheless, trying to have a reasoned and informed debate with pb youkippers about Islam is a dead-end. I don't mean that to be offensive, it's simply the case.

nigel4england said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

MikeSmithson said:

Sean_F said:

audreyanne said:

Sean_F said:

Monksfield said:

isam said:

Moses_ said:
1st
.

I

.

Audrey, I offered you a bet on how many seats UKIP will get, that was a few days ago and I have been on a short break and have no idea if you answered.

No, I didn't see the bet. I've been a bit busy. I already have a bet on with Isam that UKIP will get fewer than a quarter as many seats as the LibDems, if that helps.

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