Ladbrokes are currently offering some pretty sexy odds on the LibDems making a strong recovery in terms of maintaining or even improving on their current number of MPs at the next General Election:
51 - 60 ......................10/1 61 - 70 ......................20/1 71 or more seats ......10/1
Those odds on 51-60 seats look ok. It's possible that come the election (two years away remember) the Lib Dems could only lose a handful of seats. Or maybe even stand still.
I still think we could be in for a lost decade in politics as well as economics, with very little change until 2020.
Although having said that, I was surprised the Lib Dems suffered a net loss of 5 seats in 2010.
@foxinsoxuk. "I think health policy of the major parties is as bad as each other, indeed it is hard to put a cigarette paper between them on NHS policy."
That doesn't matter. It's just a fact backed up by the polls that Labour are more trusted on the NHS. The further up the agenda the NHS is pushed the more it benefits the party that is most trusted on it. The Tories would do well to get back onto their fertile hunting grounds-maybe immigration-though UKIP are giving them some stiff competition.
Another thought occurred to me for the Lib Dems rapid rise in the polls.....Leveson. Glegg showed real leadership and independence and looked much the most assured of the coalition leaders.
It was also a timely reminder than despite a wretched two years of cosying up to Lucifer when push comes to shove the Lib Dems can still be relied on to do the right thing.
Cyprus's finance minister has confirmed that Cypriot depositors with less than 100,000 euros in their accounts "will not be hit".
But people with more than this could see about 40% of their deposits converted into bank shares, Michalis Sarris told the BBC.
"The exact percentage is not... yet decided but it is going to be significant," he said.
The final figure will depend on how the government decides to protect pensions.
He confirmed that all Cypriot banks will remain closed until Thursday and that capital controls will be placed on the size and the amount of money people will be allowed to withdraw once they have reopened.
These restrictions would "probably be a bit stricter" on the country's two largest banks, Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, and would remain in place until the banking system "stabilises", he said.
The exact details of this "two tier system" would be hammered out with the banks later on Tuesday, he said.
Mr Sarris is expecting "some bleeding, some outflow" of funds once the banks reopen, but believes that once EU bailout funds begin flowing "in a matter of weeks", confidence will return.
Although the economy would be badly hit by the economic crisis, Mr Sarris admitted, he maintained that it could benefit from "an energy boom", referring to the exploratory Aphrodite gas fields off the southern coast of the island.
"Yes, there will be a problem but we will overcome it in a relatively short period of time", he said. He also said his government had renegotiated more favourable loans terms with Russia.
The Cypriot authorities had said all but the biggest two banks would open on Tuesday.
Banks have not been open since 15 March. Their reopening had been expected after Cyprus agreed a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) that releases 10bn euros in support.
"Hands up anyone who believes Amanda Knox will return to Italy to face a retrial for the murder of Meredith Kerchner."
Well, making it the headline keeps the BBC from having to run with "nurses to train in basic care" off the top of the news.
Bad day for the Envy of the World. Is this the NHS that Ed Miliband wanted to save? The one that Labour left us with? The tick-box culture that turned health care into health careless?
It is intriguing to speculate why everything that Labour touches turns to ashes.... How can they be so serially catastrophically wrong?
I've certainly heard that view voiced on here. Can't remember who. It might have been James Kelly.
I have previously suggested here that interviews for university places should be stopped, and that anyone whose A-levels meet the threshold should be eligible for admission, with a computerised lottery mechanism to allocate places on oversubscribed courses.
This would mean university applications could be made and decided *after* A-level results are known, and also would remove the subjective element of interviews, and allow researchers more time for research. The main benefit is the first, though the others should not be overlooked.
No one believes the flannel put up by Tories and his propaganda outlets.
A return to failed 50s idea of education scares parents stiff and rightly so.
It may be that parents' thoughts are turning to school places, especially for children who are about to start or move to new schools. What parents want is their local school to be a good school. Gove's free schools do not address this and will not meet the places shortfall, any more than New Labour's academies did.
I am very impressed by the Labour supporters' chutzpah in trying to claim that the appalling failures of the NHS under Labour's watch - remember, 13 whole years with massive majorities, and with unprecedented spending based on the City producing tax revenues never before seen in history, supplemented by borrowing as well - were somehow absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with Labour.
Thought I would spend some time just reading through a couple of threads before posting on the new system.
Nothing changes. It's basically still a hate forum for the king Labour stooge. I'm definitely up for paying a monthly sub of up to say 50 quid, (others could pay what they could afford of course), with the proviso that no one person should be able to hog the thing 20 hours a day, 7 days a week. Especially when they are doing it 'pro style' for a political party. What's wrong with some kind of limit to the number of posts any one person can make per day? This flooding of repetitive bitching is ruining PB. It's not even as though there are many betting tips in there either.
On topic, in the heat of battle a la an election campaign, I still think the Lib Dems will be squeezed down to near single figures.(Scant reward for being 'brave' in 2010). At the Euros next year they will be lucky to scrape 5-7%. That will be extremely damaging to morale within the ranks and the overall narrative. The media will be all over it. Meanwhile, the Labour vote/support must be incredibly soft when half of their supporters think they are economically illiterate. Only the return of Darling could change that view, and he's busy off saving the Union.
Cams immigration speech yesterday was worthless to the extreme. The public know two things; firstly, non EU immigration of unskilled people (legal and illegal) should come to a complete halt. Secondly, the free movement of the extremely poor from Bulgaria and Rumania is going to be a disaster. Services won't be able to cope, petty crime will rocket and there will be a nasty violent backlash from British people of all colours and creeds. UKIP only have to say 'we would have stopped it' (not that they could have of course), and they are on for surge part 2.
40% at the Euros. Apocalypse for the other parties.
"Hands up anyone who believes Amanda Knox will return to Italy to face a retrial for the murder of Meredith Kerchner."
Well, making it the headline keeps the BBC from having to run with "nurses to train in basic care" off the top of the news.
I've switched to ITN and ITV instead of the BBC nowadays - this morning the latter were banging on again about Bedroom Tax sob stories in favour of Stafford. The agenda was so clear and depressing.
Bad day for the Envy of the World. Is this the NHS that Ed Miliband wanted to save? The one that Labour left us with? The tick-box culture that turned health care into health careless?
It is intriguing to speculate why everything that Labour touches turns to ashes.... How can they be so serially catastrophically wrong?
The NHS is a fine institution and will easily survive the Tory onslaught upon it.
Just read falling Tory ratings on the NHS to judge how people rightly see through the Tory agenda for the NHS.
Foxy Knoxy is good telly and handy for Italy too - keeps their bust banks out of the headlights. Hope she faxes through a deposition to the corrupt Italian courts -a picture of her middle finger.
The NHS is a fine institution and will easily survive the Tory onslaught upon it.
labour already have over 20,000 deaths to their credit just on Burnham's watch according to your friends in the Guardian. Just how bad does it have to get before you accept it might have some serious flaws ?
1950s education was pretty rubbish, certainly outside the grammar school system. Literacy rates were even lower than now.
Rubbish! In the rural county where I was brought up, yes some people left school at 14, but never met anyone who left school neither literate nor numerate and most people had a very good general knowledge as well. Schools were often poorly furnished and teachers could be shared between classes, but basic education was really sound then and was not subject to political ideology. Teaching was a vocation and not just a job.
The NHS is a fine institution and will easily survive the Tory onslaught upon it.
" Josie Cunningham argued that her flat chest left her emotionally distressed and that she needed the operation on mental health grounds. Miss Cunningham, of Leeds, who works in telesales said she wanted to be “the next Katie Price” a reference to the former glamour model also known as Jordan. She had implant surgery at St James’s Hospital, Leeds, in January after telling her doctor that being flat-chested was causing her distress.
“My GP referred me for the operation because I wasn’t just flat-chested — I didn’t have any boobs whatsoever," she told The Sun newspaper. “I could never go on holiday as I lived in terror of ever being seen in a bikini and could never set foot outside without a padded bra. “The doctors said they’d never seen anything like it and believed me when I burst into tears and told them it was ruining my life.”
Miss Cunningham has had her breasts enlarged from 32A to 36DD and claimed doctors told her she actually had zero breast tissue. “I want the world to see the new me and want money and fame just like Katie — and my new boobs can make it all happen.”
Just how bad does it have to get before you accept it might have some serious flaws ?
Labours approach to the NHS is essentially Maoist. The Party is wonderful and can never be wrong. When the party does something, the numbers say it is always right and completely successful. When the dreadful truth behind the numbers emerges, that is the fault of others. Aparatchiks who didn't do things properly, who aren't Maoist enough. There are token punishments. The Party is still completely right and wonderful.
No offence meant to you by calling your idea 'moronic' but really is ridiculous.
What England lacks is a strong 'voice' acting on its behalf in the way Scotland and Wales have.
It certainly doesn't need an extra bunch of little voices competing against each other.
In any case there is no support for English balkanisation as Labour found in the North-East Assembly referendum.
This was a specific reply to SO's suggestion of a federal UK.
As a comparable, imagine a USA that consisted of California, Oregon, Montana and Idaho. Do you think the smaller states would be concerned about the balance of power? If so, then the federation would be fundamentally unstable.
The first and most important point to consider when developing a new constitutional settlement is to make sure that it is *settled*.
Just how bad does it have to get before you accept it might have some serious flaws ?
Labours approach to the NHS is essentially Maoist. The Party is wonderful and can never be wrong. When the party does something, the numbers say it is always right and completely successful... The Party is still completely right and wonderful.
Yup. If I missed it - my apols - but I haven't seen a single PB Labourite even accept a spec of responsibility for what happened to the NHS under their watch - and their risible attempts to make it someone else's fault/dismiss it as *Tory spin* is frankly stomach churning.
Whoever was in charge needs to be held to account. And I hope they are - we've had dozens of journalists arrested for trivial crimes in comparison and none in the NHS.
"estimate of 20,000 deaths" refers to the last three years?
3 years in which you have staunchly defended the status quo tim and more or less incessantly criticized every reform to the poisonous system labour left the current government.
Are you defending the labour years or not? Are you suggesting changes or not? as usual with the labour critique these days, there are loud complaints about what is going on but zero suggestions about what should happen.
You realise that those warnings were sent just before the election and the "estimate of 20,000 deaths" refers to the last three years?
LOL tim what are you saying, nothing bad happened under Labour ? That Johnson and Burnham shouldn't be feeling uncomfortable for paying lip service their responsibilties ? I seem to remember when I said my father had appalling treatment you told me it was an anecdote. And now we're in the 10s of thousands of avoidable deaths. And we're only seeing the scale of the problem because the Health secretaries are letting the stories come out instead of ignoring the requests for enquiries and protecting their Union paymasters . How bad does it have to get before people like yourself hear of a problem in the NHS and say needs a look at instead of going straight into ideological denial ?
And in return we get Stafford and Barrow and Morecombe and Lincoln and ... we're at 14 Trusts and counting - but the NHS is SAFE in their hands. Yeah right
I've been saying this for yrs on PB and finally its been picked up in the press
"In a report [Audit Office] published today it reveals some forces are paying as much 400 per cent more than others for each high-visibility jacket. The highest price paid by a force was £100 per jacket, compared to a unit cost of just £20 in others.
Astonishingly, the report found 20 different specification differences between high-viz jackets. A spokesman for the NAO said these included whether it should be a heavy anorak or a lightweight cagoule, the levels of waterproofing and weight. On handcuffs, forces differed on whether they preferred the steel finish or a black colour, and how the two cuffs should be linked together. Some forces spent just £14 on a set of cuffs, compared to £43 in the most spendthrift constabulary.
Riot shields can be round, curved or long, interlocking and vary in weight and thickness. Some forces prefer shields with map holders and dog handling straps. They cost between £31 and £136 depending on the force. Body armour varied in areas such as thickness and colour and in price from £203 to £410.
If forces could agree common standards on those five standard goods, they could save 25 per cent of their procurement budgets - or £1.6million a year, the report said.
Terrible story on R5 - one hillside farmer may have lost his entire stock on IoMann- all 700 of them buried in snow - he's not insured as its too expensive for a one in 50yr incident. Another farmer has dug out 30 but they've all died since.
Terrible story on R5 - one hillside farmer may have lost his entire stock on IoMann- all 700 of them buried in snow - he's not insured as its too expensive for a one in 50yr incident. Another farmer has dug out 30 but they've all died since . Should have sent for Thora Hird.
It is a sad fact that people die in hospitals every day.
There is no evidence that people died in Stafford Hospital "of neglect".
That doesn't mean their treatment wasn't shoddy or below par of course. I'm not in a position to question the Francis report and things must change - particularly the never ending organisational changes of which Lansley's are the newest and most egregiously idiotic.
But that report does not support hundreds of "extra deaths" at Stafford meme.
Concorde! How many of us have been on Concorde? Probably higher than the average.
I used to use it for that odd important meeting in New York - meant a day trip with no jet lag. Was very efficient and of course I had only hand luggage.
Can I defend 50s schooling. I went to the local council-estate school and lapped it up.
We were taught facts (some by rote) and the teachers were caring, if a little too strict for my liking. I was very withdrawn ( I seldom spoke) but I was never ignored or bullied (having three brothers may have helped).
I passed the eleven-plus at ten and could have been a contender (if it wasn't for the opposite sex and the alcohol). My choice, though. Two of my three brothers also went on to grammar school.
Anecdote, maybe? But at least I speak whereof I know
Can I defend 50s schooling. I went to the local council-estate school and lapped it up.
We were taught facts (some by rote) and the teachers were caring, if a little too strict for my liking. I was very withdrawn ( I seldom spoke) but I was never ignored or bullied (having three brothers may have helped).
I passed the eleven-plus at ten and could have been a contender (if it wasn't for the opposite sex and the alcohol). My choice, though. Two of my three brothers also went on to grammar school.
Anecdote, maybe? But at least I speak whereof I know
I also passed the 11+ at 10 years old, and also discovered alcohol and the opposite sex. Not only did it ruin my education it completely destroyed my chance of being a pro footballer.My fault though.
Have to admit I thoroughly enjoyed it, I like to think of it in romantic terms of discovering wine and women, but in truth it was more cider and slappers!
I was involved in a project over 20 years ago to unify the procurement for E Sussex police. It was perfectly feasible and the Chief Con was delighted with the recommendations. All came to naught due to too many internal interested parties at that time.
It is a sad fact that people die in hospitals every day.
There is no evidence that people died in Stafford Hospital "of neglect". ...
But that [Francis] report does not support hundreds of "extra deaths" at Stafford meme.
It does support the fact that death rates at Stafford were higher, which would imply more deaths than you would expect from a hospital of Stafford's class and type. There were many causes, but the decline of the prestige of "caring" in the NHS is one of them.
If forces could agree common standards on those five standard goods, they could save 25 per cent of their procurement budgets - or £1.6million a year, the report said.
I'm not sure about the arithmetic, especially once monopoly suppliers are created, but the wider point is that there will always be a tension between central and local ordering. The former is said to be cheaper (ask the MoD!) but the latter is more responsive and can support local economies.
There was something about procurement in Lord Hestletine's report, iirc.
Why don't you tell us and point us to some evidence?
Nope, you tell us. You are constantly slagging off Gove and his excellent reforms,which are in part Blair policy anyway. You have an obvious comparison in Wales under Labour, why don't you tell us how much better it is under them?
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 3m BREAKING: Theresa May to make significant Commons statement on future of UK Borders Agency at lunchtime....
Abolition?
The right wing press who are selling Cameron shares will love her if she does.
Abolition would be yet another pointless administrative reorganisation. Time and effort would be diverted into creating a new structure which would inevitably contain most of the same people as the existing one. Semblance of action but in reality no change.
2. What was wrong with 50s education - did you experience it? Yes or No.
1950s education was pretty rubbish, certainly outside the grammar school system. Literacy rates were even lower than now.
That is total rubbish. If you've ever read through old reports or whatever written by people who went to school in those days it's always much better than now. Just look at the Mirror and Sun now compared to the Mirror from the 1940s. In fact isn't there some kind of test you can do on writing to judge the mental age or something? I'd like to see that done to a 1940s and modern Mirror.
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics 3m BREAKING: Theresa May to make significant Commons statement on future of UK Borders Agency at lunchtime.... Abolition?
The right wing press who are selling Cameron shares will love her if she does.
UKIP at 15% or so means they have to do something or they are rooted at the locals in May. And they know it. Labour will also get pummelled so a move to protest and be damned seems inevitable. UKIP at the euros is a scary prospect for the Tories and shows no signs of improving. I expect Cam to guarantee a NO referendum against staying in the EU for 2015 if people vote Tory. No other way to get the fold back on side.
2. What was wrong with 50s education - did you experience it? Yes or No.
1950s education was pretty rubbish, certainly outside the grammar school system. Literacy rates were even lower than now.
That is total rubbish. If you've ever read through old reports or whatever written by people who went to school in those days it's always much better than now. Just look at the Mirror and Sun now compared to the Mirror from the 1940s. In fact isn't there some kind of test you can do on writing to judge the mental age or something? I'd like to see that done to a 1940s and modern Mirror.
The fact that standards of tabloid newspaper reports have declined is a reflection on journalism not on education.
If they put a woman in charge at Tory HQ instead of Cameron then women will vote for her (once) even if she is crap.
Gillard is verifiable proof of that.
If the SNP hand over to Sturgeon next year then watch what happens to the ratings with Scottish based women on the referendum. I think it is worth at least 5% to the campaign, which is enough to tie things even 18 months out.
Given how many Tories post on PB I can't believe not a single one of them finds it noteworthy.
May be no one knows for sure?
I suspect it is something of a feedback loop. So much of it is gossip spun around by the papers based on insubstantial guff. That said, the papers do seem to have turned on Cameron - presumably because they thought he would stick up for them on Leveson and they feel sold out? (Ignoring the fact that it would have been worse for them under Miliband?).
That said, it would be a good environment for May to try and make a move - but feels very high risk for her unless Cameron has decided to go. Unseating a sitting PM, when there is no stalking horse process, and a Coalition that could fall apart as a result, seems "courageous"
London has the massive advanmntage economically and educationally of recent large scale immigration.
And of course some people on here believe "white flight" further strengthens the capitals economy and schools. Not sure I'd go the whole way with that but is an argument
1) The prosperity of "London and the SouthEast" comprises three rings with a very prospeous centre, a poor and getting poorer ring surrounding doughnut and a thicker ring around that of outer London and the wider SouthEast. The idea that London as a whole is booming is a lie. It's a dishonest use of an average for spin. It does show however how creating mass poverty is in New Labour's interests.
"According to research in 2009 by the Sutton Trust, half of state secondary pupils in London have received private tuition in some form during their school years - up from 36 per cent in 2005. Across the country, the proportion has seen a jump from 18 per cent to 22 per cent."
So private tutors used more than twice as much in London as outside and jumped from 36% of pupils to 50% since 2005. Not sure that fits the idea of the schools improving. It might well fit the idea of the schools getting worse thus driving people to private tutors.
As the erstwhile chief whip of the pbTories (Roger, 2005), I can report with a profound and enduring serenity that nothing is going on, the govt is experiencing the standard mid-term blues, and that's about that. I would counsel my dear friends in pbc's lumpen-leftie brigade to contain their excitement.
tim, as ever, is being a plonker. He should do a bit of politics; perhaps Jonathan, who has done and may still do, could act as mentor.
However, the timing of all this rumbling seems possibly more substantial than mere post-Leveson irritability on the part of the Tory press.
1.5-2 years from an election would probably be the optimum time for a change of leader too.
And a new leader might not mind collapsing the coalition*. Governing as a hamstrung minority would give her a decent pitch for a mandate in 2015.
*assuming the Lib Dems would jump. But given their need to de-torify themselves without taking the blame for paralysing Government, a leader change would give them a good excuse.
Do you think he should have donated UK taxpayers' funds to protect large Cypriot bank deposits? Because, if not, doing anything other than welcoming the deal might seem a bit insincere.
I suspect it is something of a feedback loop. So much of it is gossip spun around by the papers based on insubstantial guff. That said, the papers do seem to have turned on Cameron - presumably because they thought he would stick up for them on Leveson and they feel sold out? (Ignoring the fact that it would have been worse for them under Miliband?).
Given that the vast majority of the papers wanted, and expected, a Cameron-led Tory majority government after the "unloseable" GE in 2010, I think there's a lot more to this than Leveson. Rather like much of the Conservative party in the country at large, the right-wing press feels betrayed by his failure to hit that open goal. Initially there was a grudging attempt to make the best of a bad job, but the combination of incompetence (particularly the 2012 Budget, but the general lack of unambiguous progress on the economy) and unwarranted liberalism (on matters like gay marriage) and unwarranted authoritarianism (see secret courts etc) has made it harder and harder for anyone to be bothered to support him. Perhaps you could see Leveson as the final betrayal in the eyes of the press, but it's the end of a long process rather than a sudden paradigm shift.
Of course all of these things are likely to be worse under Miliband from a rightwing perspective (though it's questionable whether they can get much worse on competence) - but if what you want is a proper Conservative PM, then you would reasonably doubt whether the current incumbent is capable of winning a majority, and interested in being a proper Conservative PM even if he does win a majority. Rather as many on the left thought that a Tory government in 2010 was part of the necessary journey to govern without Brown, the rightwing press are now concluding that the journey to a proper Conservative PM may have to include a period of Prime Minister Miliband. And Chancellor Balls.
You might say it's a bad time to be a Conservative if that's the best option available.
@Neil - BTW, you were wondering yesterday about whether Cypriot pension funds would be hit by the raid on deposits over €100K. On the Today programme this morning, the Cypriot finance manager said (I'm quoting from memory) that the decision had not been finalised as to whether they 'would be excluded or protected in some other way'.
Thanks, Richard, I was wondering because I dont know how they can (a) be certain about the 40% figure and (b) be uncertain about the treatment of pension funds at the same time.
It seems to me that the amount of the write-off is heavily dependent on the treatment of pension funds (if they are exempt surely the write-off on large deposits have to be significantly larger) but noone seems to be commenting publicly about this.
However, the timing of all this rumbling seems possibly more substantial than mere post-Leveson irritability on the part of the Tory press.
1.5-2 years from an election would probably be the optimum time for a change of leader too.
And a new leader might not mind collapsing the coalition*. Governing as a hamstrung minority would give her a decent pitch for a mandate in 2015.
*assuming the Lib Dems would jump. But given their need to de-torify themselves without taking the blame for paralysing Government, a leader change would give them a good excuse.
It's hard to see the coalition surviving a Tory leadership contest. Just imagine - the Chief Whip receives the required number of no-confidence letters and Cameron stands down. Gove, May and Fox enter the contest. Each of them has to appeal to the Tory grassroots, who hate the Lib Dems and are, in general, closer to UKIP's political position than they are to Cameron's. Leadership contenders would be forced to outbid each other in attacks on the LDs, promises to nuke the EU, block all immigration from tomorrow etc etc. Would the Liberal Democrats act merely as spectators whilst all this went on and then meekly continue the coalition with the winner? I don't think so - they would seize their chance to detach themselves from the retoxified Tories and regain some political independence before the general election.
Neil. I'm not going to get into the 'is it confiscation' debate again, but the bottom line is some British citizens and former taxpayers are going to lose up to 40% of their wealth. Most aren't oligarchs or drug smugglers, they are ordinary people who built up a nest egg and decided to retire with it.
Now, you may say it that's just unfortunate. You might even say it serves them right. They can't expect British protections in a foreign country. But it is not to be 'welcomed' by a conservative prime minister, surely.
@tim "We find that native Europeans are more likely to upgrade their occupation to one associated with higher skills and better pay, when a larger number of immigrants enter their labor market."
This is nonsense as well. Because the political class are in the process of replacing the indigenous population from the ground up i.e. unskilled first, this creates a distorted average because the percentage of unskilled among the two population is different i.e. if the percentage of unskilled among the indigenous is say 30% and the percentage among immigrants is 60% then as the number of immigrants increases it will look like the indigenous population is getting better off whereas what is actually happening is simply that the poorer segment is being gradually replaced.
It's the reverse-side of the same dishonest trick with averages they used to use up until a few years ago i.e. saying higher unemployment or lower educational attainment among immigrant populations was proof of racism while ignoring differences in the socio-economic percentages i.e. not just comparing unskilled with unskilled, semi-skilled with semi-skilled etc but lumping them together and using the distorted average that created to make a bogus point.
People probably remember as that line was used all the time for 30 years or so but it stopped abruptly a few years back because obviously that spin - immigrants doing disproportionately badly because of racism - didn't fit in well with the new line about mass unskilled immigration causing economic booms.
My sums may be wrong but if pension funds are exempt then I think the 40% number will need to be a *lot* higher. Cypriot pension funds were in cash to a ridiculous degree.
Theresa May is now 12/1 second favourite as next PM, from 66/1 when I advised backing her. I think it's plain who knows their politics on here, and it's not the plurality of PB Tories who have been in denial about Cameron and Osborne's political ability for the last four years.
Easily done - the members only vote in a leadership ballot, not in a confidence ballot (of the confidence ballot is lost the former leader is barred from the subsequent leadership election).
Would be interesting if Dave had a nice little "put up or shut up" moment to end destructive leadership chatter.
To Tories: is this even possible under the new leadership rules, would the party HAVE to ballot the members under all circumstances?
I think that's the most likely outcome - if the number of no-confidence letters gets close to the threshold Dave will do a John Major - resign and offer himself for re-election. And, like Major, I'd expect the ploy to work.
I have previously suggested here that interviews for university places should be stopped, and that anyone whose A-levels meet the threshold should be eligible for admission, with a computerised lottery mechanism to allocate places on oversubscribed courses.
This would mean university applications could be made and decided *after* A-level results are known, and also would remove the subjective element of interviews, and allow researchers more time for research. The main benefit is the first, though the others should not be overlooked.
This is madness. The idea that A Levels results, after years of grade inflation, should be the only thing considered in applications of any sort is ridiculous.
A couple of articles on moves to create a 'true left' party today, and whilst these things should be taken with a pinch of salt, it does show the problems Ed Miliband will have when he finally gets around to framing a manifesto.
Liam Byrne has received a giant shellacking from the left for a mere abstention on a welfare bill. It's going to get nasty.
A couple of articles on moves to create a 'true left' party today, and whilst these things should be taken with a pinch of salt, it does show the problems Ed Miliband will have when he finally gets around to framing a manifesto.
Liam Byrne has received a giant shellacking from the left for a mere abstention on a welfare bill. It's going to get nasty.
I sometimes wonder if both the left and the right, seeing what an absolute catastrophe the economy, Europe, global trade, threat of China, North Korea, etc are becoming that they are both positioning themselves to be the LEAST electable party come the GE. If so, it will be hilarious for the run up to the GE but a nightmare afterwards.
CPPR is a labour think tank tied to staff formerly tied to McConnell, Dewar and Wendy Alexander and her hubby. It is not independent of thought in any way and spouts labour bile on a regular basis. Any other answer other than the one they produced would have been a shock.
I feel sorry for all those Saudis and Norwegians who suffer with the burden of oil production and taxes and profits from it to their state owned industries. CPPR believed in PPP/PFI and we know how crap and expensive for our children that proved to be.
Oil investment shows the expected direction in terms of the price more than has been people hell bent on maintaining the status quo at literally all cost.
'We should never forget that one third of people do not have access to a car'
Taxi for the loon!
Edit: And how many of those are children, seriously disabled, in hospital, nursing home (or eq)? The norm around here (Chester area) seems to be > one car/bedroom of the house, with a significant rise in 'hobby cars' which are only used rarely and might include 4x4's or modified sports (or even racing) cars.
Hunt leads off with a measured speech, Burnham responds equally measured but asking questions as being in opposition, he is tasked to hold the Government to account. Then Hunt tries to score cheap political points instead of playing it straight. Totally misjudged the nature of the mood of the House on a very serious matter. Truly, Hunt by name, *unt by nature
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I still think we could be in for a lost decade in politics as well as economics, with very little change until 2020.
Although having said that, I was surprised the Lib Dems suffered a net loss of 5 seats in 2010.
That doesn't matter. It's just a fact backed up by the polls that Labour are more trusted on the NHS. The further up the agenda the NHS is pushed the more it benefits the party that is most trusted on it. The Tories would do well to get back onto their fertile hunting grounds-maybe immigration-though UKIP are giving them some stiff competition.
A return to failed 50s idea of education scares parents stiff and rightly so.
1. Please explain what Gove is doing to return education to that of the 50s.
2. What was wrong with 50s education - did you experience it? Yes or No.
It was also a timely reminder than despite a wretched two years of cosying up to Lucifer when push comes to shove the Lib Dems can still be relied on to do the right thing.
Christopher Hope complains of a lack of rigour in Number 10 while Gove bleats - incorrectly of course - about the same in education.
Of course there are no questions asked about policy made on the hoof by this hopeless Tory Government. Ideology is all.
The ideology is perfect and above questioning.
But people with more than this could see about 40% of their deposits converted into bank shares, Michalis Sarris told the BBC.
"The exact percentage is not... yet decided but it is going to be significant," he said.
The final figure will depend on how the government decides to protect pensions.
He confirmed that all Cypriot banks will remain closed until Thursday and that capital controls will be placed on the size and the amount of money people will be allowed to withdraw once they have reopened.
These restrictions would "probably be a bit stricter" on the country's two largest banks, Bank of Cyprus and Laiki, and would remain in place until the banking system "stabilises", he said.
The exact details of this "two tier system" would be hammered out with the banks later on Tuesday, he said.
Mr Sarris is expecting "some bleeding, some outflow" of funds once the banks reopen, but believes that once EU bailout funds begin flowing "in a matter of weeks", confidence will return.
Although the economy would be badly hit by the economic crisis, Mr Sarris admitted, he maintained that it could benefit from "an energy boom", referring to the exploratory Aphrodite gas fields off the southern coast of the island.
"Yes, there will be a problem but we will overcome it in a relatively short period of time", he said. He also said his government had renegotiated more favourable loans terms with Russia.
The Cypriot authorities had said all but the biggest two banks would open on Tuesday.
Banks have not been open since 15 March. Their reopening had been expected after Cyprus agreed a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union (EU) that releases 10bn euros in support.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21936554
Well, making it the headline keeps the BBC from having to run with "nurses to train in basic care" off the top of the news.
Bad day for the Envy of the World. Is this the NHS that Ed Miliband wanted to save? The one that Labour left us with? The tick-box culture that turned health care into health careless?
It is intriguing to speculate why everything that Labour touches turns to ashes.... How can they be so serially catastrophically wrong?
This would mean university applications could be made and decided *after* A-level results are known, and also would remove the subjective element of interviews, and allow researchers more time for research. The main benefit is the first, though the others should not be overlooked.
Nothing changes. It's basically still a hate forum for the king Labour stooge. I'm definitely up for paying a monthly sub of up to say 50 quid, (others could pay what they could afford of course), with the proviso that no one person should be able to hog the thing 20 hours a day, 7 days a week. Especially when they are doing it 'pro style' for a political party. What's wrong with some kind of limit to the number of posts any one person can make per day? This flooding of repetitive bitching is ruining PB. It's not even as though there are many betting tips in there either.
On topic, in the heat of battle a la an election campaign, I still think the Lib Dems will be squeezed down to near single figures.(Scant reward for being 'brave' in 2010). At the Euros next year they will be lucky to scrape 5-7%. That will be extremely damaging to morale within the ranks and the overall narrative. The media will be all over it. Meanwhile, the Labour vote/support must be incredibly soft when half of their supporters think they are economically illiterate. Only the return of Darling could change that view, and he's busy off saving the Union.
Cams immigration speech yesterday was worthless to the extreme. The public know two things; firstly, non EU immigration of unskilled people (legal and illegal) should come to a complete halt. Secondly, the free movement of the extremely poor from Bulgaria and Rumania is going to be a disaster. Services won't be able to cope, petty crime will rocket and there will be a nasty violent backlash from British people of all colours and creeds. UKIP only have to say 'we would have stopped it' (not that they could have of course), and they are on for surge part 2.
40% at the Euros. Apocalypse for the other parties.
Just read falling Tory ratings on the NHS to judge how people rightly see through the Tory agenda for the NHS.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2299032/Rare-200-tonne-railway-gun-make-historic-journey-Utrecht-mark-300th-anniversary-treaty-ended-Spanish-War.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
"On the move, the 200-ton railway gun that could fire a shell 13 miles to be centrepiece in War and Peace exhibition"
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/03/25/article-0-18EB0329000005DC-557_634x388.jpg
PS @RCL1000
Is the option to post a photo and display it unavailable in Vanilla?? I've seen a couple of videos shown but no pix - this seems a bit peculiar.
The NHS enjoyed record satisfaction at 2010 election and beyond.
It is a success story, well loved by the vast majority of British people despite the malevolent attentions of Tory cranks.
Cameron just lied about his intentions. Outright, bare faced, lied. What a vile man.
The NHS is a fine institution and will easily survive the Tory onslaught upon it.
labour already have over 20,000 deaths to their credit just on Burnham's watch according to your friends in the Guardian. Just how bad does it have to get before you accept it might have some serious flaws ?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/mar/16/ignored-nhs-hospital-warning-claims
Get back to Foxy Knoxy, quick. Meredith Kercher (British) really was murdered. You don't want to be accused of ignoring deaths!
1950s education was pretty rubbish, certainly outside the grammar school system. Literacy rates were even lower than now.
Rubbish! In the rural county where I was brought up, yes some people left school at 14, but never met anyone who left school neither literate nor numerate and most people had a very good general knowledge as well. Schools were often poorly furnished and teachers could be shared between classes, but basic education was really sound then and was not subject to political ideology. Teaching was a vocation and not just a job.
“My GP referred me for the operation because I wasn’t just flat-chested — I didn’t have any boobs whatsoever," she told The Sun newspaper. “I could never go on holiday as I lived in terror of ever being seen in a bikini and could never set foot outside without a padded bra. “The doctors said they’d never seen anything like it and believed me when I burst into tears and told them it was ruining my life.”
Miss Cunningham has had her breasts enlarged from 32A to 36DD and claimed doctors told her she actually had zero breast tissue. “I want the world to see the new me and want money and fame just like Katie — and my new boobs can make it all happen.”
How did the human race survive without plastic surgery on the NHS? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/9953786/Larger-breasts-on-NHS-for-would-be-model.html I'm having a bit of trouble working out how Ms Cunningham became a 36" anything since that's bugger all to do with cup size and everything to do with weight and body frame. I detect some elastic truth here.
Labours approach to the NHS is essentially Maoist. The Party is wonderful and can never be wrong. When the party does something, the numbers say it is always right and completely successful. When the dreadful truth behind the numbers emerges, that is the fault of others. Aparatchiks who didn't do things properly, who aren't Maoist enough. There are token punishments. The Party is still completely right and wonderful.
As a comparable, imagine a USA that consisted of California, Oregon, Montana and Idaho. Do you think the smaller states would be concerned about the balance of power? If so, then the federation would be fundamentally unstable.
The first and most important point to consider when developing a new constitutional settlement is to make sure that it is *settled*.
Whoever was in charge needs to be held to account. And I hope they are - we've had dozens of journalists arrested for trivial crimes in comparison and none in the NHS.
3 years in which you have staunchly defended the status quo tim and more or less incessantly criticized every reform to the poisonous system labour left the current government.
Are you defending the labour years or not? Are you suggesting changes or not? as usual with the labour critique these days, there are loud complaints about what is going on but zero suggestions about what should happen.
LOL tim what are you saying, nothing bad happened under Labour ? That Johnson and Burnham shouldn't be feeling uncomfortable for paying lip service their responsibilties ? I seem to remember when I said my father had appalling treatment you told me it was an anecdote. And now we're in the 10s of thousands of avoidable deaths. And we're only seeing the scale of the problem because the Health secretaries are letting the stories come out instead of ignoring the requests for enquiries and protecting their Union paymasters . How bad does it have to get before people like yourself hear of a problem in the NHS and say needs a look at instead of going straight into ideological denial ?
Just like there WASN'T 1,200 deaths at Stafford, there WASN'T 20,000 overall deaths in the NHS.
http://skwalker1964.wordpress.com/2013/03/16/media-jarman-claim-20k-avoidable-nhs-deaths-why-its-nonsense/
According to this source - http://www.wikihow.com/Put-a-Photo-on-a-Vanilla-Forum - you can use the image tag....
<img src='http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Parus_major_2_Luc_Viatour.jpg' alt='Great Tit'></img>
But I am sure that I have read somewhere else that you need to configure a vanilla plugin. Check the developers guide....
http://vanillaforums.org/docs/featuresaddons-pluginsfileupload
and
http://vanillaforums.com/blog/news/how-to-use-file-upload/
"24hrs To Save The NHS!"
"3 Months To Save The NHS!"
"#WeLoveTheNHS"
And in return we get Stafford and Barrow and Morecombe and Lincoln and ... we're at 14 Trusts and counting - but the NHS is SAFE in their hands. Yeah right
Pfft.
Surprised at how small it was. The Bajans (locals) treated the takeoff noise at the airport like a rock concert.
Don't duck the question again, have the guts to answer it.
"In a report [Audit Office] published today it reveals some forces are paying as much 400 per cent more than others for each high-visibility jacket. The highest price paid by a force was £100 per jacket, compared to a unit cost of just £20 in others.
Astonishingly, the report found 20 different specification differences between high-viz jackets. A spokesman for the NAO said these included whether it should be a heavy anorak or a lightweight cagoule, the levels of waterproofing and weight. On handcuffs, forces differed on whether they preferred the steel finish or a black colour, and how the two cuffs should be linked together. Some forces spent just £14 on a set of cuffs, compared to £43 in the most spendthrift constabulary.
Riot shields can be round, curved or long, interlocking and vary in weight and thickness. Some forces prefer shields with map holders and dog handling straps. They cost between £31 and £136 depending on the force. Body armour varied in areas such as thickness and colour and in price from £203 to £410.
If forces could agree common standards on those five standard goods, they could save 25 per cent of their procurement budgets - or £1.6million a year, the report said.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2299161/Police-wasting-millions-kit-agree-standard-issue-handcuffs-boots-Hi-vis-jackets.html#ixzz2Odva2sAG
.
Ben, how is education currently performing in Wales under Labour?
Please don't criticise Gove again without answering the question, you lack any credibility if you do so.
Plato, 11.00AM: "I'm recalling a few Labour slogans...but the NHS is SAFE in their hands. Yeah right"
Dreadful.
It is a sad fact that people die in hospitals every day.
There is no evidence that people died in Stafford Hospital "of neglect".
That doesn't mean their treatment wasn't shoddy or below par of course. I'm not in a position to question the Francis report and things must change - particularly the never ending organisational changes of which Lansley's are the newest and most egregiously idiotic.
But that report does not support hundreds of "extra deaths" at Stafford meme.
How is the NHS in Wales performing under Labour?
We were taught facts (some by rote) and the teachers were caring, if a little too strict for my liking. I was very withdrawn ( I seldom spoke) but I was never ignored or bullied (having three brothers may have helped).
I passed the eleven-plus at ten and could have been a contender (if it wasn't for the opposite sex and the alcohol). My choice, though. Two of my three brothers also went on to grammar school.
Anecdote, maybe? But at least I speak whereof I know
Have to admit I thoroughly enjoyed it, I like to think of it in romantic terms of discovering wine and women, but in truth it was more cider and slappers!
Are moves afoot? Or have they just finally given up on him and resigned themselves to survive defeat and regroup after 2015?
Re: Police procurement.
I was involved in a project over 20 years ago to unify the procurement for E Sussex police. It was perfectly feasible and the Chief Con was delighted with the recommendations. All came to naught due to too many internal interested parties at that time.
There was something about procurement in Lord Hestletine's report, iirc.
It was his tuition fees pledge,and there is nothing he or any Tory on here or anywhere else can do about it."
Sure he could. He could have used Stafford to drag Labour down to the same rating or lower - making him relatively higher.
He welcomed the Cyprus deal. Says it all really
Gillard is verifiable proof of that.
If the SNP hand over to Sturgeon next year then watch what happens to the ratings with Scottish based women on the referendum. I think it is worth at least 5% to the campaign, which is enough to tie things even 18 months out.
The country's draft capital controls include export limits on euros and a ban on cashing cheques, says Newsnight economics editor Paul Mason.
In addition, fixed-term deposits will have to be held until maturity.
bbc.co.uk/news/business-21936554
The Scottish government claimed that North Sea production could generate a great deal more in tax revenues than had been estimated.
But a report by the Centre for Public Policy for the Regions (CPPR) said a return to the boom years was unlikely.
It added that a more realistic scenario was that revenues would remain flat or fall slightly in real terms.
The Scottish government's Finance Secretary John Swinney welcomed the CPPR's report but said its analysis was not yet finalised.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-21936723
Given how many Tories post on PB I can't believe not a single one of them finds it noteworthy.
More on the BBC and a certain deceased personality.
I suspect it is something of a feedback loop. So much of it is gossip spun around by the papers based on insubstantial guff. That said, the papers do seem to have turned on Cameron - presumably because they thought he would stick up for them on Leveson and they feel sold out? (Ignoring the fact that it would have been worse for them under Miliband?).
That said, it would be a good environment for May to try and make a move - but feels very high risk for her unless Cameron has decided to go. Unseating a sitting PM, when there is no stalking horse process, and a Coalition that could fall apart as a result, seems "courageous"
1) The prosperity of "London and the SouthEast" comprises three rings with a very prospeous centre, a poor and getting poorer ring surrounding doughnut and a thicker ring around that of outer London and the wider SouthEast. The idea that London as a whole is booming is a lie. It's a dishonest use of an average for spin. It does show however how creating mass poverty is in New Labour's interests.
2)
http://www.tes.co.uk/article.aspx?storycode=6109995
"According to research in 2009 by the Sutton Trust, half of state secondary pupils in London have received private tuition in some form during their school years - up from 36 per cent in 2005. Across the country, the proportion has seen a jump from 18 per cent to 22 per cent."
So private tutors used more than twice as much in London as outside and jumped from 36% of pupils to 50% since 2005. Not sure that fits the idea of the schools improving. It might well fit the idea of the schools getting worse thus driving people to private tutors.
tim, as ever, is being a plonker. He should do a bit of politics; perhaps Jonathan, who has done and may still do, could act as mentor.
"Courageous", very good way of putting it!
However, the timing of all this rumbling seems possibly more substantial than mere post-Leveson irritability on the part of the Tory press.
1.5-2 years from an election would probably be the optimum time for a change of leader too.
And a new leader might not mind collapsing the coalition*. Governing as a hamstrung minority would give her a decent pitch for a mandate in 2015.
*assuming the Lib Dems would jump. But given their need to de-torify themselves without taking the blame for paralysing Government, a leader change would give them a good excuse.
Of course all of these things are likely to be worse under Miliband from a rightwing perspective (though it's questionable whether they can get much worse on competence) - but if what you want is a proper Conservative PM, then you would reasonably doubt whether the current incumbent is capable of winning a majority, and interested in being a proper Conservative PM even if he does win a majority. Rather as many on the left thought that a Tory government in 2010 was part of the necessary journey to govern without Brown, the rightwing press are now concluding that the journey to a proper Conservative PM may have to include a period of Prime Minister Miliband. And Chancellor Balls.
You might say it's a bad time to be a Conservative if that's the best option available.
"Last week Baroness Shephard launched her book"
Thanks, Richard, I was wondering because I dont know how they can (a) be certain about the 40% figure and (b) be uncertain about the treatment of pension funds at the same time.
It seems to me that the amount of the write-off is heavily dependent on the treatment of pension funds (if they are exempt surely the write-off on large deposits have to be significantly larger) but noone seems to be commenting publicly about this.
Now, you may say it that's just unfortunate. You might even say it serves them right. They can't expect British protections in a foreign country. But it is not to be 'welcomed' by a conservative prime minister, surely.
Chief whips are meant to be menacing, JohnO!
I may be cuddly on here, but after five or six cocktails.....
To Tories: is this even possible under the new leadership rules, would the party HAVE to ballot the members under all circumstances?
"We find that native Europeans are more likely to upgrade their occupation to one associated with higher skills and better pay, when a larger number of immigrants enter their labor market."
This is nonsense as well. Because the political class are in the process of replacing the indigenous population from the ground up i.e. unskilled first, this creates a distorted average because the percentage of unskilled among the two population is different i.e. if the percentage of unskilled among the indigenous is say 30% and the percentage among immigrants is 60% then as the number of immigrants increases it will look like the indigenous population is getting better off whereas what is actually happening is simply that the poorer segment is being gradually replaced.
It's the reverse-side of the same dishonest trick with averages they used to use up until a few years ago i.e. saying higher unemployment or lower educational attainment among immigrant populations was proof of racism while ignoring differences in the socio-economic percentages i.e. not just comparing unskilled with unskilled, semi-skilled with semi-skilled etc but lumping them together and using the distorted average that created to make a bogus point.
People probably remember as that line was used all the time for 30 years or so but it stopped abruptly a few years back because obviously that spin - immigrants doing disproportionately badly because of racism - didn't fit in well with the new line about mass unskilled immigration causing economic booms.
My sums may be wrong but if pension funds are exempt then I think the 40% number will need to be a *lot* higher. Cypriot pension funds were in cash to a ridiculous degree.
Easily done - the members only vote in a leadership ballot, not in a confidence ballot (of the confidence ballot is lost the former leader is barred from the subsequent leadership election).
Liam Byrne has received a giant shellacking from the left for a mere abstention on a welfare bill. It's going to get nasty.
I agree with you.
CPPR is a labour think tank tied to staff formerly tied to McConnell, Dewar and Wendy Alexander and her hubby. It is not independent of thought in any way and spouts labour bile on a regular basis. Any other answer other than the one they produced would have been a shock.
I feel sorry for all those Saudis and Norwegians who suffer with the burden of oil production and taxes and profits from it to their state owned industries. CPPR believed in PPP/PFI and we know how crap and expensive for our children that proved to be.
Oil investment shows the expected direction in terms of the price more than has been people hell bent on maintaining the status quo at literally all cost.
'We should never forget that one third of people do not have access to a car'
Taxi for the loon!
Edit: And how many of those are children, seriously disabled, in hospital, nursing home (or eq)? The norm around here (Chester area) seems to be > one car/bedroom of the house, with a significant rise in 'hobby cars' which are only used rarely and might include 4x4's or modified sports (or even racing) cars.
Truly, Hunt by name, *unt by nature
BREAKING: Full investigation for sleazeball Mike Hancock
Chances of by election in Portsmouth south?