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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : November 13th 2014

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  • Get reckless on hignfy now and X factor and strictly... job done the snivelling (moderated reluctantly)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Fourth Tory lead in November, and we're not even half way through the month.

    Breakout by January still on the cards...

    Do you think Ed will still be leader at the election no matter how bad the polls get?
    I've explained the Labour rules umpteen times.

    So, they either have to tear-up the rule book (how? and who? exactly would do that?)

    or

    he resigns (but there's an appalling gotcha there, in the shape of Harpie)

    Plus they're running out of time to do anything anyhow, even if they could work out what it was...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    Indeed. I didn't realise in Britain you were punished twice for the same crime.

    Campaign for longer sentences, by all means, but campaigning against letting an ex-con get on with his life sounds awfully illiberal to me - and it's being spouted by liberals. The irony.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Interesting to note that the ipsos-mori +3 for Con poll changed nearly every uk politics market that ladbrokes have up, but the yougov +3 for Lab poll, and Miliband's inspiring speech have caused no change at all
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Isn't this quite incredible from the lady who is campaigning to have Ched Evans banned from playing for Sheff utd?

    Charlie Webster (@CharlieCW)
    10/09/2014 20:43
    Just bumped into Mike Tyson in the hotel lobby as I was randomly talking about him! I chickened out on asking for a photo...damn ;-)

    That's pretty funny! Have you or anyone else replied to her tweet to point out that Tyson may have something in common with Evans?
    Plenty of other people have, I haven't

    Doesn't this devalue everything she has said on the issue ? I don't know if I am missing something obvious, but it's just breathtaking from where I am standing. I just don't get it!
    Entirely agree. But would this being widely known make any difference to his situation? Is she that important to it?
    I don't know but for the life of me I can't understand how someone so passionTe about a subject can be ok with Tyson and not with Evans... It's almost beyond belief. I'm racking my brains for an explanation but how can there be one?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    edited November 2014
    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    I don't remember all this outrage over Marlon King, the man (I think) now has racked up 18 convictions, including sexual assault and is on the sex offenders register. Each time he was convicted / came out of prison, he got a club straight away and very little outcry.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    Indeed. I didn't realise in Britain you were punished twice for the same crime.

    Campaign for longer sentences, by all means, but campaigning against letting an ex-con get on with his life sounds awfully illiberal to me - and it's being spouted by liberals. The irony.
    Whilst it is not what I want to say, I agree. He served his time, when released he should be allowed to continue his life without a vendetta or angry people pursing him round every corner.

    The incarceration may have been too short, but that is a problem not of his making.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    New Anti-Terror laws to be unveiled...
  • isam said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Isn't this quite incredible from the lady who is campaigning to have Ched Evans banned from playing for Sheff utd?

    Charlie Webster (@CharlieCW)
    10/09/2014 20:43
    Just bumped into Mike Tyson in the hotel lobby as I was randomly talking about him! I chickened out on asking for a photo...damn ;-)

    That's pretty funny! Have you or anyone else replied to her tweet to point out that Tyson may have something in common with Evans?
    Plenty of other people have, I haven't

    Doesn't this devalue everything she has said on the issue ? I don't know if I am missing something obvious, but it's just breathtaking from where I am standing. I just don't get it!
    Entirely agree. But would this being widely known make any difference to his situation? Is she that important to it?
    I don't know but for the life of me I can't understand how someone so passionTe about a subject can be ok with Tyson and not with Evans... It's almost beyond belief. I'm racking my brains for an explanation but how can there be one?
    Here's what she said afterwards

    “I’m not proud of [the tweet],” says Webster, explaining that she hadn’t really had time to register Tyson’s past when she wrote it.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-life/11176833/Ched-Evans-Sheffield-United-row-I-dont-want-kids-cheer-on-rapist-Evans-as-a-hero.html
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Newsnight: What has made Chukka such a grievously arrogant, slippery individual?

    He wants to give people "dignity and respect" by getting them into work. Funny, I thought Labour were the party who preferred disabled people who wanted to work stay at home and claim benefits.
  • RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Fourth Tory lead in November, and we're not even half way through the month.

    Breakout by January still on the cards...

    Do you think Ed will still be leader at the election no matter how bad the polls get?
    I've explained the Labour rules umpteen times.

    So, they either have to tear-up the rule book (how? and who? exactly would do that?)

    or

    he resigns (but there's an appalling gotcha there, in the shape of Harpie)

    Plus they're running out of time to do anything anyhow, even if they could work out what it was...
    If we suppose that Harman is party to the plot, and happy to go along with it, does the Labour rulebook say anything about what is done if the Leader and deputy Leader both resign after the last conference before an election?

    From what you've posted before I would guess that in such extraordinary circumstances the NEC would have the responsibility and power to appoint a new Leader pretty damn quick. I might be wrong, though. Perhaps there's an order of succession all the way down the ranks of the entire PLP?
  • Lol, Danny Blanchflower isn't very good with numbers.

    About half an hour ago, he tweeted the YouGov.

    Except it was yesterday's YouGov with Lab 3% ahead, not tonight's YouGov
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    @looknorthBBC: UKIP party members say Neil Hamilton withdrew from the selection process to represent Boston & Skegness before tonight's vote.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689

    ZenPagan said:

    Can any supporter of Miliband's speech today (and OGH as he seems to think legal corporate tax avoidance is reprehensible) tell me the moral difference between an individual hiring an accountant to legally avoid tax, and a company doing the exact same thing?

    It's a problem for all governments that multinational companies can ship their profits wherever they find it convenient. IIRC, Osborne said something very similar. It's natural for anyone in or near Government to dislike people who avoid taxes by wheezes which were obviously not intended by the law. In principle I do favour a GAAR, though I see the problems - perhaps with an independent body to rule on whether a scheme is "clearly artificial".

    Corporations should pay tax on earnings where they make them, and there should be changes to ensure this. It is quite wrong for Amazon to nominally base itself in Luxembourg, and have an unfair advantage over W H Smiths who do pay tax here
    They are based in Luxembourg because EU rules allow it. Aren't you one of those that always bleat on about how we can't pick and choose which of the club rules to follow? Maybe I mistook your europhilic tendency for you being a fan and all that was nothing but sarcasm?

    I do not bleat on about picking the rules.

    All that I am proposing is that tax is paid on earnings made in this country.

    It does not discriminate against EU firms to do so. A tax on turnover for example.
    When people on here don't like something about the EU way europhiles like yourself are quick to say tough we are in the club and those are the rules you will have to lump it.

    By all means go campaign to change the rules but it isn't going to happen there are far too many countries that like it just the way it is such as Ireland and Luxembourg.

    If you want people to do things your way then you get the law changed you don't go on about moral obligations. For a start not everyone even believes paying tax is a moral duty. In my view for example I think exactly the opposite that avoiding tax is a moral duty because all governments are colossal engines of waste. I would much rather see the money being used sensibly within the economy than used to fund some politicians pet vanity project.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014

    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    I don't remember all this outrage over Marlon King, the man (I think) now has racked up 18 convictions, including sexual assault and is on the sex offenders register. Each time he was convicted / came out of prison, he got a club straight away and very little outcry.
    He played for Sheff United last year! What did Webster make of it? Why hadn't she resigned already before Evans was released?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marlon_King
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Fourth Tory lead in November, and we're not even half way through the month.

    Breakout by January still on the cards...

    Do you think Ed will still be leader at the election no matter how bad the polls get?
    I've explained the Labour rules umpteen times.

    So, they either have to tear-up the rule book (how? and who? exactly would do that?)

    or

    he resigns (but there's an appalling gotcha there, in the shape of Harpie)

    Plus they're running out of time to do anything anyhow, even if they could work out what it was...
    I know what the rules are, which means Ed would have to decide to go himself or be persuaded to by others, and one of those would surely happen if the polls get bad enough.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    Funny place, South Yorkshire.

    A sex offender, tried, convicted, punished. They seem to want to punish twice.

    Sex offenders, unprosecuted, unconvicted, unpunished. They couldn't be arsed to even turn up and vote to ensure they're punished.

    And some of the people so keen to jump on the bandwagon were notable by their silence over recent revelations.

    Finally, Labour INCREASED its vote in Sheffield in the recent PCC election.

    Pass the sickbag, Alice.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    While I'd love to wait for our principled lefties to reply to my earlier questions about the morality of legal avoidance of tax through accidental loopholes, I guess I'll have to wait for the morning to wade through their replies..

    Night all ✌️
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    ZenPagan said:

    Can any supporter of Miliband's speech today (and OGH as he seems to think legal corporate tax avoidance is reprehensible) tell me the moral difference between an individual hiring an accountant to legally avoid tax, and a company doing the exact same thing?

    It's a problem for all governments that multinational companies can ship their profits wherever they find it convenient. IIRC, Osborne said something very similar. It's natural for anyone in or near Government to dislike people who avoid taxes by wheezes which were obviously not intended by the law. In principle I do favour a GAAR, though I see the problems - perhaps with an independent body to rule on whether a scheme is "clearly artificial".

    Corporations should pay tax on earnings where they make them, and there should be changes to ensure this. It is quite wrong for Amazon to nominally base itself in Luxembourg, and have an unfair advantage over W H Smiths who do pay tax here
    They are based in Luxembourg because EU rules allow it. Aren't you one of those that always bleat on about how we can't pick and choose which of the club rules to follow? Maybe I mistook your europhilic tendency for you being a fan and all that was nothing but sarcasm?
    Then we should change the rules. It's not so much a problem that Amazon can base themselves in Luxembourg, the problem is that they can count sales that are manifestly made in the UK, from UK warehouses, etc, as being made from Luxembourg. This pretence is nothing but a fiction written on paper for the purpose of reducing a tax liability. If we don't wish to allow it to continue then we should convince our EU partners of our case and have the rules changed.
    Re VAT, the law has changed exactly as you describe it. Online retailers are now obliged to charge the VAT rate in the customer's country, and to remit taxes to the appropriate country.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited November 2014
    isam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    I don't remember all this outrage over Marlon King, the man (I think) now has racked up 18 convictions, including sexual assault and is on the sex offenders register. Each time he was convicted / came out of prison, he got a club straight away and very little outcry.
    He played for Sheff United last year! What did Webster make of it? Why hadn't she resigned already before Evans was released?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marlon_King
    The whole thing is nonsensical.

    It's the brainless world we live in now. Sheff United will I am certain back down, now that Ennis has said (front page of Mirror) she would ask for her name to removed from the stand at Bramall Lane. So effectively, Evans has been hounded out of rehabilitation by social media.

    It is not Ched Evans' fault the time he was given was paltry.

    Any ire should be aimed at the criminal justice system.
  • isam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    I don't remember all this outrage over Marlon King, the man (I think) now has racked up 18 convictions, including sexual assault and is on the sex offenders register. Each time he was convicted / came out of prison, he got a club straight away and very little outcry.
    He played for Sheff United last year! What did Webster make of it? Why hadn't she resigned already before Evans was released?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marlon_King
    Didn't end so well, got banged up again.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Last night saw the second part of a 2 part program called "The man who shot Usama bin Laden." The ratings, as Variety would say, were boffo. It was a good program.

    Today the reporter who got the scoop revealed that the interview was shot over the summer at the Holiday Inn Express in Butte, Montana. How Pythonesque.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Chortle, lots of Ed on the TV and well....

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 30s30 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight — Tories have one point lead: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Labour would still be ahead if they hadn't lost support to the Greens. And the Greens are selecting candidates in crucial marginals where they didn't stand in 2010.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Fourth Tory lead in November, and we're not even half way through the month.

    Breakout by January still on the cards...

    Do you think Ed will still be leader at the election no matter how bad the polls get?
    I've explained the Labour rules umpteen times.

    So, they either have to tear-up the rule book (how? and who? exactly would do that?)

    or

    he resigns (but there's an appalling gotcha there, in the shape of Harpie)

    Plus they're running out of time to do anything anyhow, even if they could work out what it was...
    I know what the rules are, which means Ed would have to decide to go himself or be persuaded to by others, and one of those would surely happen if the polls get bad enough.
    Is this right?

    If Ed resigns Hattie steps into the position as a stop gap.

    The NEC (?) are empowered to decide if an election is required.

    No election, Hattie is leader. Elect a deputy.

    If they say have an election and it is open to candidates (for leader and deputy?).

    If Hattie resigns as well, then election has to happen.

    There is no means to appoint a leader.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937

    john_zims said:

    @SimonStClare

    ' At the Labour leader’s eighth ‘relaunch’ speech on Thursday at Senate House, every single question from journalists was greeted by boos, hisses and tuts.'

    The hand picked audience of Labour party members didn't fool anyone.

    The next desperate step will be to ban journalists from asking questions.

    Maybe they should hire that really bad Elvis impersonator again....at least it will lighten the mood.
    Should Labour sack Miliband? Cue Bad Elvis: "It's now or never...."
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    edited November 2014
    rcs1000 said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Can any supporter of Miliband's speech today (and OGH as he seems to think legal corporate tax avoidance is reprehensible) tell me the moral difference between an individual hiring an accountant to legally avoid tax, and a company doing the exact same thing?

    It's a problem for all governments that multinational companies can ship their profits wherever they find it convenient. IIRC, Osborne said something very similar. It's natural for anyone in or near Government to dislike people who avoid taxes by wheezes which were obviously not intended by the law. In principle I do favour a GAAR, though I see the problems - perhaps with an independent body to rule on whether a scheme is "clearly artificial".

    Corporations should pay tax on earnings where they make them, and there should be changes to ensure this. It is quite wrong for Amazon to nominally base itself in Luxembourg, and have an unfair advantage over W H Smiths who do pay tax here
    They are based in Luxembourg because EU rules allow it. Aren't you one of those that always bleat on about how we can't pick and choose which of the club rules to follow? Maybe I mistook your europhilic tendency for you being a fan and all that was nothing but sarcasm?
    Then we should change the rules. It's not so much a problem that Amazon can base themselves in Luxembourg, the problem is that they can count sales that are manifestly made in the UK, from UK warehouses, etc, as being made from Luxembourg. This pretence is nothing but a fiction written on paper for the purpose of reducing a tax liability. If we don't wish to allow it to continue then we should convince our EU partners of our case and have the rules changed.
    Re VAT, the law has changed exactly as you describe it. Online retailers are now obliged to charge the VAT rate in the customer's country, and to remit taxes to the appropriate country.
    And all that means is that the company pays not a penny more in tax it merely makes anything bought from amazon to cost more for anyone in the UK. Another few pennies out of my pocket for them to throw at green energy or another millenium dome. They will then turn around and bemoan the cost of living crisis. Perhaps if the state took its hands out of our pockets occasionally we might all have a bit more

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Interesting to note that the ipsos-mori +3 for Con poll changed nearly every uk politics market that ladbrokes have up, but the yougov +3 for Lab poll, and Miliband's inspiring speech have caused no change at all

    The 2010/Now ratio implied that the 3 point lead was actually 0.7.

    Lab 31.7, rather than 35.
    Con 31, rather than 32.

  • Pb and newly found long lost vinyl true faith remixes found on the interweb on headphones. Bliss... even carswell is ok with me right now
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Fourth Tory lead in November, and we're not even half way through the month.

    Breakout by January still on the cards...

    Do you think Ed will still be leader at the election no matter how bad the polls get?
    I've explained the Labour rules umpteen times.

    So, they either have to tear-up the rule book (how? and who? exactly would do that?)

    or

    he resigns (but there's an appalling gotcha there, in the shape of Harpie)

    Plus they're running out of time to do anything anyhow, even if they could work out what it was...
    If we suppose that Harman is party to the plot, and happy to go along with it, does the Labour rulebook say anything about what is done if the Leader and deputy Leader both resign after the last conference before an election?

    From what you've posted before I would guess that in such extraordinary circumstances the NEC would have the responsibility and power to appoint a new Leader pretty damn quick. I might be wrong, though. Perhaps there's an order of succession all the way down the ranks of the entire PLP?
    Oddly, there appears to be no provision for what occurs if the Deputy Leader (alone) becomes 'unavailable' while in Opposition. [But I thought Harpie pushed through a rule elsewhere that they must have XX chromosomes?]

    There is provision for what happens if both become unavailable. The NEC 'shall' order a leadership ballot, and 'may', in consultation with the Shadow Cabinet, appoint someone from the SC to serve 'until the outcome of the ballot.'

    So I don't really see the benefit of engineering this?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Wigan Douglas Lab hold

    Lab 874 UKIP 452 Con 80 Green 37 CAP 29

    May result was Lab 1502 UKIP 790 Con 210
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    I don't remember all this outrage over Marlon King, the man (I think) now has racked up 18 convictions, including sexual assault and is on the sex offenders register. Each time he was convicted / came out of prison, he got a club straight away and very little outcry.
    He played for Sheff United last year! What did Webster make of it? Why hadn't she resigned already before Evans was released?

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marlon_King
    Didn't end so well, got banged up again.
    Yes seems a real charmer

    But Webster was a patron of Sheff u last year I think and I don't remember the fuss over King... She also seemed excited about being in the same room as mike Tyson. Weird that she is so het up about Evans given her lack of outrage about the other two
  • dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    I don't remember all this outrage over Marlon King, the man (I think) now has racked up 18 convictions, including sexual assault and is on the sex offenders register. Each time he was convicted / came out of prison, he got a club straight away and very little outcry.
    I don't know the details of any cases involving other sportspeople, but I think the reasons that the Ched Evans case has aroused so much attention are that:

    1. Some Sheffield United supporters were very vocal in support of Ched Evans leading up to the case, including naming the woman he was convicted of raping and waging a campaign of intimidation and character assassination against her - who in the eyes of the law is a victim of a terrible crime.

    So in many respects the current campaign is about attempting to punish this section of the Sheffield United "support", by preventing them from having their player back.

    2. Ched Evans has always maintained his innocence. This creates a tricky situation. For some crimes - such as those that carry a life sentence - failure to admit to one's guilt is seen as a danger signal in terms of risk of reoffending. However, for the small proportion of people wrongly convicted of a crime they did not commit, this then leads to them being doubly punished for continuing to maintain their innocence.

    So it's not just that Ched Evans is a convicted rapist, but he's an unrepentant convicted rapist who, in the eyes of some, consequently presents an increased risk of reoffending.

    I think I can understand these reasons, and you don't have to agree with them to see that this is a lot more complicated than an ex-con being harassed and prevented from leading any sort of ordinary life.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    AndyJS said:

    Chortle, lots of Ed on the TV and well....

    Sun Politics ‏@Sun_Politics 30s30 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight — Tories have one point lead: CON 33%, LAB 32%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%

    Labour would still be ahead if they hadn't lost support to the Greens. And the Greens are selecting candidates in crucial marginals where they didn't stand in 2010.
    I reported my anecdotes a couple of moths back, how a number of my leftie friends were deserting Ed Miliband to the Greens. It may yet become a flood.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ZenPagan said:

    ZenPagan said:

    Can any supporter of Miliband's speech today (and OGH as he seems to think legal corporate tax avoidance is reprehensible) tell me the moral difference between an individual hiring an accountant to legally avoid tax, and a company doing the exact same thing?

    It's a problem for all governments that multinational companies can ship their profits wherever they find it convenient. IIRC, Osborne said something very similar. It's natural for anyone in or near Government to dislike people who avoid taxes by wheezes which were obviously not intended by the law. In principle I do favour a GAAR, though I see the problems - perhaps with an independent body to rule on whether a scheme is "clearly artificial".

    Corporations should pay tax on earnings where they make them, and there should be changes to ensure this. It is quite wrong for Amazon to nominally base itself in Luxembourg, and have an unfair advantage over W H Smiths who do pay tax here
    They are based in Luxembourg because EU rules allow it. Aren't you one of those that always bleat on about how we can't pick and choose which of the club rules to follow? Maybe I mistook your europhilic tendency for you being a fan and all that was nothing but sarcasm?

    I do not bleat on about picking the rules.

    All that I am proposing is that tax is paid on earnings made in this country.

    It does not discriminate against EU firms to do so. A tax on turnover for example.
    When people on here don't like something about the EU way europhiles like yourself are quick to say tough we are in the club and those are the rules you will have to lump it.

    By all means go campaign to change the rules but it isn't going to happen there are far too many countries that like it just the way it is such as Ireland and Luxembourg.

    If you want people to do things your way then you get the law changed you don't go on about moral obligations. For a start not everyone even believes paying tax is a moral duty. In my view for example I think exactly the opposite that avoiding tax is a moral duty because all governments are colossal engines of waste. I would much rather see the money being used sensibly within the economy than used to fund some politicians pet vanity project.

    You seem to have me mixed up with someone else.

    I am glad not to live in your world though.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Some dimwit on QT just suggested that making a sandwich was a "skill".

    He is seemingly the Welsh Labour first minister.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624
    ZenPagan said:

    And all that means is that the company pays not a penny more in tax it merely makes anything bought from amazon to cost more for anyone in the UK. Another few pennies out of my pocket for them to throw at green energy or another millenium dome. They will then turn around and bemoan the cost of living crisis. Perhaps if the state took its hands out of our pockets occasionally we might all have a bit more

    So, where does the tax go?

    If Amazon now charges me VAT at 20% on purchases, because I'm based in the UK, who gets the 20%?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    I believe Con have a 1% lead with YouGov - You heard it here first...;)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Anyhow they'll just keep hoping something turns up/relaunching Dedward.

    By the time he's 10 points adrift, it'll be too late to do anything other than sing the Red Flag as the waters close over them...
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    chestnut said:

    Some dimwit on QT just suggested that making a sandwich was a "skill".

    He is seemingly the Welsh Labour first minister.

    about par for most Welsh AMs
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited November 2014
    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    "Home rule for Wales" got one clap.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Financier said:

    chestnut said:

    Some dimwit on QT just suggested that making a sandwich was a "skill".

    He is seemingly the Welsh Labour first minister.

    about par for most Welsh AMs
    This is the problem with devolved assemblies with next to no powers, they only attract third rate politicians who couldn't get elected to places where what they do actually matters.

    I know of Parish councils with more power than the Welsh Assembly!
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689



    You seem to have me mixed up with someone else.

    I am glad not to live in your world though.

    You probably are but then as a doctor you can afford to be. Some of us find it difficult to make ends meet when almost 50% of everything we earn goes into government coffers. However whenever tax rises its always us little guys that end up worse of. But that's ok as long as NHS workers are nicely cushioned and diversity coordinators can stay employed. A price well worth paying. Out here in prole land though all we see is prices going up and the only people I know that have had a pay rise in the last 5 years are people on minimum wage (because there was no choice) and those that work in the public sector. Even if you managed to raise taxes on companies all they would do is make me pay by raising prices.

    Every time politicians meddle it costs me money. An example of this is Milibrand's rent cap. My landlord immediately sent out a letter notifying me of a rent rise of a measly 13.3 %. Funnily enough my first though was to move then I looked around and found all the other landlords doing the same.

    In the last 20 years my tax has got more and more and the services I receive got less and less both at government and local level and you wonder why I now consider it a moral duty to avoid tax?

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    Rod Liddle isn't anything to write home about either.

    Roll on devo-max.

    The sooner England is free, the better.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Financier said:

    chestnut said:

    Some dimwit on QT just suggested that making a sandwich was a "skill".

    He is seemingly the Welsh Labour first minister.

    about par for most Welsh AMs
    This is the problem with devolved assemblies with next to no powers, they only attract third rate politicians who couldn't get elected to places where what they do actually matters.

    I know of Parish councils with more power than the Welsh Assembly!
    scottish Mps could retire to Holyrood on Thurs And Fri for Scottish business - fire all the MSPs.
  • chestnut said:

    Interesting to note that the ipsos-mori +3 for Con poll changed nearly every uk politics market that ladbrokes have up, but the yougov +3 for Lab poll, and Miliband's inspiring speech have caused no change at all

    The 2010/Now ratio implied that the 3 point lead was actually 0.7.

    Lab 31.7, rather than 35.
    Con 31, rather than 32.

    Ipsos-MORI is seen as as a much more serious poll than the daily YouGov which restricts its sample to members of it panel. Also Ipsos-MORI gets far more media attention.

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2014
    Meanwhile, 1 week after the massive repudiation of Obama and his policies in the election - the Democrats have the fewest seats in the House since the 1920s, not to mention the meltdown in Governorships and state legislatures - Obamacare remains the gift that keeps on giving.

    The message from the election was - Stop Obama! - and the Republicans would do well to remember that and not interpret the results as a mandate for them.

    Here is Jonathan Gruber, one of the architects of Obamacare, talking about the stupidity of the American voter. As of this evening there are now 4 videos of him saying this stuff at different conferences. He's pretty impressed with himself.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adrdmmh7bMo

  • RodCrosby said:

    Anyhow they'll just keep hoping something turns up/relaunching Dedward.

    By the time he's 10 points adrift, it'll be too late to do anything other than sing the Red Flag as the waters close over them...

    There's a lot of over reaction this evening to a margin of error poll that was taken largely before the speech anyway, so somewhat irrelevant. I have noticed on PB that when posters find a poll they like, they are vocal. When they see a poll they dislike, often silent. We should wait until Sunday before casting judgement, I should say.

    Dead Wood is among the better of the pun names, however. First time I have heard it. Sure beats Bliar and Shameron.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?



  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    I don't remember all this outrage over Marlon King, the man (I think) now has racked up 18 convictions, including sexual assault and is on the sex offenders register. Each time he was convicted / came out of prison, he got a club straight away and very little outcry.
    I don't know the details of any cases involving other sportspeople, but I think the reasons that the Ched Evans case has aroused so much attention are that:

    1. Some Sheffield United supporters were very vocal in support of Ched Evans leading up to the case, including naming the woman he was convicted of raping and waging a campaign of intimidation and character assassination against her - who in the eyes of the law is a victim of a terrible crime.

    So in many respects the current campaign is about attempting to punish this section of the Sheffield United "support", by preventing them from having their player back.

    2. Ched Evans has always maintained his innocence. This creates a tricky situation. For some crimes - such as those that carry a life sentence - failure to admit to one's guilt is seen as a danger signal in terms of risk of reoffending. However, for the small proportion of people wrongly convicted of a crime they did not commit, this then leads to them being doubly punished for continuing to maintain their innocence.

    So it's not just that Ched Evans is a convicted rapist, but he's an unrepentant convicted rapist who, in the eyes of some, consequently presents an increased risk of reoffending.

    I think I can understand these reasons, and you don't have to agree with them to see that this is a lot more complicated than an ex-con being harassed and prevented from leading any sort of ordinary life.
    Undoubtedly so, it is tricky... I was making no judgement on him either way, just v surprised his nemesis is seemingly ok with other abusers of women
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    TGOHF said:

    Financier said:

    chestnut said:

    Some dimwit on QT just suggested that making a sandwich was a "skill".

    He is seemingly the Welsh Labour first minister.

    about par for most Welsh AMs
    This is the problem with devolved assemblies with next to no powers, they only attract third rate politicians who couldn't get elected to places where what they do actually matters.

    I know of Parish councils with more power than the Welsh Assembly!
    scottish Mps could retire to Holyrood on Thurs And Fri for Scottish business - fire all the MSPs.
    And leave English MPs to vote on English Laws? I could get on board with that.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    RodCrosby said:

    Anyhow they'll just keep hoping something turns up/relaunching Dedward.

    By the time he's 10 points adrift, it'll be too late to do anything other than sing the Red Flag as the waters close over them...

    There's a lot of over reaction this evening to a margin of error poll that was taken largely before the speech anyway, so somewhat irrelevant. I have noticed on PB that when posters find a poll they like, they are vocal. When they see a poll they dislike, often silent. We should wait until Sunday before casting judgement, I should say.

    Dead Wood is among the better of the pun names, however. First time I have heard it. Sure beats Bliar and Shameron.
    Trend friend down the U bend...

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    "Home rule for Wales" got one clap.

    Even worse than last week? Goodness.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited November 2014
    Dartford Brent Con hold

    Con 597 Lab 402 UKIP 316
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Dartford Littlebrook Lab hold

    Lab 358 UKIP 220 Con 172

    Mid Sussex Bolney Con hold

    Con 261 UKIP 187 LD 161
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Financier said:

    chestnut said:

    Some dimwit on QT just suggested that making a sandwich was a "skill".

    He is seemingly the Welsh Labour first minister.

    about par for most Welsh AMs
    This is the problem with devolved assemblies with next to no powers, they only attract third rate politicians who couldn't get elected to places where what they do actually matters.

    I know of Parish councils with more power than the Welsh Assembly!
    scottish Mps could retire to Holyrood on Thurs And Fri for Scottish business - fire all the MSPs.
    And leave English MPs to vote on English Laws? I could get on board with that.
    Save the taxpayer a packet too..
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Ninoinoz said:

    dr_spyn said:

    The Court of Public Opinion on Ched Evans is still in session on Twitter. Doesn't look like part of the Justice System to me.

    Funny place, South Yorkshire.

    A sex offender, tried, convicted, punished. They seem to want to punish twice.

    Sex offenders, unprosecuted, unconvicted, unpunished. They couldn't be arsed to even turn up and vote to ensure they're punished.

    And some of the people so keen to jump on the bandwagon were notable by their silence over recent revelations.

    Finally, Labour INCREASED its vote in Sheffield in the recent PCC election.

    Pass the sickbag, Alice.
    My guess would be the social justice warriors who would get worked up about Ched Evans would view the Rotherham girls as much less deserving of sympathy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TimB The 2012 election was after Obamacare was passed and he was re-elected.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Dartford Brent Con hold

    Con 597 Lab 402 UKIP 316

    Dartford seems to be not as hot for UKIP as other parts of the Kent coast. Not sure why.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Financier said:

    chestnut said:

    Some dimwit on QT just suggested that making a sandwich was a "skill".

    He is seemingly the Welsh Labour first minister.

    about par for most Welsh AMs
    This is the problem with devolved assemblies with next to no powers, they only attract third rate politicians who couldn't get elected to places where what they do actually matters.

    I know of Parish councils with more power than the Welsh Assembly!
    scottish Mps could retire to Holyrood on Thurs And Fri for Scottish business - fire all the MSPs.
    And leave English MPs to vote on English Laws? I could get on board with that.
    Save the taxpayer a packet too..
    Actually a reform of Westminster where the MPs meet for national issues 3 days a week and retire to their local assemblies for the other 2 might just be a way forward. It would, of course, need further work in terms of balancing representation - but it would do away with yet another layer of politicians suckling at the public teat.
  • TGOHF said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Anyhow they'll just keep hoping something turns up/relaunching Dedward.

    By the time he's 10 points adrift, it'll be too late to do anything other than sing the Red Flag as the waters close over them...

    There's a lot of over reaction this evening to a margin of error poll that was taken largely before the speech anyway, so somewhat irrelevant. I have noticed on PB that when posters find a poll they like, they are vocal. When they see a poll they dislike, often silent. We should wait until Sunday before casting judgement, I should say.

    Dead Wood is among the better of the pun names, however. First time I have heard it. Sure beats Bliar and Shameron.
    Trend friend down the U bend...

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Indeed. Many thanks. It shows the Labour vote falling and the Conservatives flatlining. The only success story is Ukip - a remarkable improvement. They are the danger party.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited November 2014

    GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?




    I don't mind Labour really, but your right I don't like Miliband. And the vast majority of the GBP agrees with me it seems...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Anyhow they'll just keep hoping something turns up/relaunching Dedward.

    By the time he's 10 points adrift, it'll be too late to do anything other than sing the Red Flag as the waters close over them...

    There's a lot of over reaction this evening to a margin of error poll that was taken largely before the speech anyway, so somewhat irrelevant. I have noticed on PB that when posters find a poll they like, they are vocal. When they see a poll they dislike, often silent. We should wait until Sunday before casting judgement, I should say.

    Dead Wood is among the better of the pun names, however. First time I have heard it. Sure beats Bliar and Shameron.
    Trend friend down the U bend...

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    Indeed. Many thanks. It shows the Labour vote falling and the Conservatives flatlining. The only success story is Ukip - a remarkable improvement. They are the danger party.
    That graph is 6 days old by the way - so the recent effects not yet accounted for.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?



    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    AndyJS said:

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    "Home rule for Wales" got one clap.

    Even worse than last week? Goodness.
    It's in Romford in a fortnight, I might try and get tickets
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Kentrising Disagree Carwyn Jones has proved himself far more capable than any of the leaders Scottish Labour have produced and Stephen Crabb is the son of a single mother born on a council house who I have met a few times and been impressed by. Rod Liddle is unafraid to be controversial. Leanne Wood you may have a point with, but even she has more spark than Sturgeon, I have seem many worse QTs!
  • isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    "Home rule for Wales" got one clap.

    Even worse than last week? Goodness.
    It's in Romford in a fortnight, I might try and get tickets
    Any event in the fair home county of Essex deserves a strong billing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    RodCrosby said:

    New Anti-Terror laws to be unveiled...

    I feel a deep sense of foreboding at those words. Let's hope these ones do not contain, hopefully unintended, opportunities for wider abuse.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    kle4 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    New Anti-Terror laws to be unveiled...

    I feel a deep sense of foreboding at those words. Let's hope these ones do not contain, hopefully unintended, opportunities for wider abuse.
    That will only happen if the bills have been properly scrutinised, I suspect that will fail to be the case however and that most mp's probably won't even be in the commons for it
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    HYUFD said:

    TimB The 2012 election was after Obamacare was passed and he was re-elected.

    But notably Obamacare, in particular the individual mandate, was delayed until after the 2012 election, and the corporate requirement until after the 2014 election. If the act is so good and beneficial, why do that?

    2012 was interesting. It's almost as if there were two Democratic Parties - one to reelect Barack Obama and one for everyone else, which didn't do nearly as well.

    Also of course Obamacare had not taken effect by then, and the keep your plan, keep your doctor, save $2500 per year, no effect on the deficit, etc was still being heavily pushed. The gullible believed.

    These videos tell you everything you need to know about the lies and deceit, not to menton the political chicanery and procedural boondoggles that were used to pass this bill.

    America was used and lied to, and they're pissed off. Hence last week's result.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    chestnut said:

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    Rod Liddle isn't anything to write home about either.

    Roll on devo-max.

    The sooner England is free, the better.
    Amen to that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    TimB The shape and form of Obamacare was clear in 2012 I really see little difference now, if you were opposed to it you would have voted for Romney
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited November 2014

    GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?



    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular
    I doubt anybody is listening to Ed's policy announcements now. All most people will take from the reports of the speech is Ed's whining about how everyone has got it in for him, which most people will be VERY unimpressed about given that he put himself up for the job of LOTO in the first place.

    Ed was warned time and time and time again from 2011 to 2013 that he wasn't doing well enough, that he wasn't connecting with the public like he should. And now he has the cheek to blame it all on the right wing media?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844


    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular

    What on earth is the point of hinting at things like that?

    The speech was missing substance - it was just talk with no specifics. I know that he doesn't want to commit himself - but it is ludicrous to talk of problems without offering a clear explanation of what you believe the solution to be.

    For a man who claims to do substance, it was very much an empty, image-based speech
  • TGOHF

    Have Ukip shown even greater impetus over the last week? I suspect the Conservative and Labour means are largely unchanged
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited November 2014
    HYUFD said:

    Kentrising Disagree Carwyn Jones has proved himself far more capable than any of the leaders Scottish Labour have produced and Stephen Crabb is the son of a single mother born on a council house who I have met a few times and been impressed by. Rod Liddle is unafraid to be controversial. Leanne Wood you may have a point with, but even she has more spark than Sturgeon, I have seem many worse QTs!

    Fair enough. Funny how people see things differently - I thought Leanne Wood was the best of the politicians, maybe because if I was Welsh I'd probably be a Welsh nationalist!*

    The worst of the lot was the woman in the red dress. Awful.

    *though she's also a republican, something which I personally loathe.


  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    chestnut said:

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    Rod Liddle isn't anything to write home about either.

    Roll on devo-max.

    The sooner England is free, the better.
    Amen to that.
    Is this the same guy that was editor of the Today Program and IIRC cheated on his new wife?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimB The 2012 election was after Obamacare was passed and he was re-elected.

    But notably Obamacare, in particular the individual mandate, was delayed until after the 2012 election, and the corporate requirement until after the 2014 election. If the act is so good and beneficial, why do that?

    2012 was interesting. It's almost as if there were two Democratic Parties - one to reelect Barack Obama and one for everyone else, which didn't do nearly as well.

    Also of course Obamacare had not taken effect by then, and the keep your plan, keep your doctor, save $2500 per year, no effect on the deficit, etc was still being heavily pushed. The gullible believed.

    These videos tell you everything you need to know about the lies and deceit, not to menton the political chicanery and procedural boondoggles that were used to pass this bill.

    America was used and lied to, and they're pissed off. Hence last week's result.
    Looking at the results last week , sure they showed overall a swing to the Republicans but much less than we see in mid term in this country and even past US mid term elections . Your America was used and lied to and they're pissed off statement shows a partisan viewpoint rather than a measured comment on the results as a whole .
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689


    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular

    What on earth is the point of hinting at things like that?

    The speech was missing substance - it was just talk with no specifics. I know that he doesn't want to commit himself - but it is ludicrous to talk of problems without offering a clear explanation of what you believe the solution to be.

    For a man who claims to do substance, it was very much an empty, image-based speech

    It also won't do what he wants as all companies will do is be more reluctant to hire if they can't get rid of people as easily. Look to France to see where that sort of policy leads
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    I am not quite sure why the fate of Ched Evans is so exercising right-wingers.

    After all, his fate is being decided by market forces.

    Sheffield United can re-employ Ched -- but they will take a big hit in terms of support. That's their decision.

    It is entirely up to an individual fan if he or she wishes to continue to support Sheffield United. That's his or her decision.

    If enough people are not bothered, then Ched can return and play for Sheffield United. However, if -- as looks the case -- enough people are bothered, then it doesn't make financial sense for Sheffield United to employ him.

    It's just pure 100 per cent Thatcherite market forces.

  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?




    I don't mind Labour really, but your right I don't like Miliband. And the vast majority of the GBP agrees with me it seems...
    That would be true of all party leaders, that the majority dislike them. The exception might be Nigel Paul Farage, but I would need to check the figures
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    ZenPagan said:


    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular

    What on earth is the point of hinting at things like that?

    The speech was missing substance - it was just talk with no specifics. I know that he doesn't want to commit himself - but it is ludicrous to talk of problems without offering a clear explanation of what you believe the solution to be.

    For a man who claims to do substance, it was very much an empty, image-based speech

    It also won't do what he wants as all companies will do is be more reluctant to hire if they can't get rid of people as easily. Look to France to see where that sort of policy leads
    I thought he had stopped hailing Hollande as the saviour of Europe...
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?



    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular
    I doubt anybody is listening to Ed's policy announcements now. All most people will take from the reports of the speech is Ed's whining about how everyone has got it in for him, which most people will be VERY unimpressed about given that he put himself up for the job of LOTO in the first place.

    Ed was warned time and time and time again from 2011 to 2013 that he wasn't doing well enough, that he wasn't connecting with the public like he should. And now he has the cheek to blame it all on the right wing media?
    He made a particular point of not blaming it on the press, rightwing or otherwise. He made no policy announcements either - merely hinted at those to come
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Wokingham is a Con gain from Ind elected as Lib Dem

    Con 726 Lab 498 LD 448 UKIP 275 Green 105


    May result Lab 967 Con 760 LD 499 UKIP 423 Green 173
  • Tim_B said:

    chestnut said:

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    Rod Liddle isn't anything to write home about either.

    Roll on devo-max.

    The sooner England is free, the better.
    Amen to that.
    Is this the same guy that was editor of the Today Program and IIRC cheated on his new wife?
    What relevance does his private life have? I would prefer we more like France in this regard, than the puritanical United States
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited November 2014

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?




    I don't mind Labour really, but your right I don't like Miliband. And the vast majority of the GBP agrees with me it seems...
    That would be true of all party leaders, that the majority dislike them. The exception might be Nigel Paul Farage, but I would need to check the figures
    There are degrees of unpopularity though? Ed's right at the extreme end of unpopularity and hasn't even done anything to make himself unpopular yet, LOL!

    He's not serious. He isn't a credible candidate. He's like Hague and IDS and Foot. A complete and total dud.
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689

    ZenPagan said:


    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular

    What on earth is the point of hinting at things like that?

    The speech was missing substance - it was just talk with no specifics. I know that he doesn't want to commit himself - but it is ludicrous to talk of problems without offering a clear explanation of what you believe the solution to be.

    For a man who claims to do substance, it was very much an empty, image-based speech

    It also won't do what he wants as all companies will do is be more reluctant to hire if they can't get rid of people as easily. Look to France to see where that sort of policy leads
    I thought he had stopped hailing Hollande as the saviour of Europe...
    France has always had quite restrictive employment laws as to job security afaik even before Hollande so I don't think we can lay that particular one at his door though he has much else to be blamed for.

    These day's everything politicians meddle with of whichever party tends to backfire spectacularly because they don't put much thought into it past what sort of soundbite it will be or what headline can be written on it. Time to radically overhaul the system in my view as its no longer fit for purpose (and I don't mean a mere change to PR)

  • ZenPagan said:


    I rather enjoyed Edward's speech - I thought it quite strong. It seemed to hint at policies on job security that may prove popular

    What on earth is the point of hinting at things like that?

    The speech was missing substance - it was just talk with no specifics. I know that he doesn't want to commit himself - but it is ludicrous to talk of problems without offering a clear explanation of what you believe the solution to be.

    For a man who claims to do substance, it was very much an empty, image-based speech

    It also won't do what he wants as all companies will do is be more reluctant to hire if they can't get rid of people as easily. Look to France to see where that sort of policy leads
    There was already a one-year buffer period where people could be sacked for no good reason. That, under the Coalition, has been extended to two years. I'd venture that if a manager is unable to assess the ability of a worker in a year, it is him that should leave, not the worker
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Cambridge Queens Edith Lib Dem gain from Lab

    LD 933 Lab 790 Con 614 Green 222
  • GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?




    I don't mind Labour really, but your right I don't like Miliband. And the vast majority of the GBP agrees with me it seems...
    That would be true of all party leaders, that the majority dislike them. The exception might be Nigel Paul Farage, but I would need to check the figures
    There are degrees of unpopularity though? Ed's right at the extreme end of unpopularity and hasn't even done anything to make himself unpopular yet, LOL!

    He's not serious. He isn't a credible candidate. He's like Hague and IDS and Foot. A complete and total dud.
    Many said the same of Margaret Hilda Thatcher.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376

    Cambridge Queens Edith Lib Dem gain from Lab

    LD 933 Lab 790 Con 614 Green 222

    Bad result for Lab...

  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited November 2014
    HYUFD said:

    TimB The shape and form of Obamacare was clear in 2012 I really see little difference now, if you were opposed to it you would have voted for Romney

    Never mind 2012 - it was clear in 2010. In 2012 it hadn't taken effect. A majority didn't like it before it was passed. After it passed there was the bloodbath of the 2010 midterms. After it took effect in 2013 there was the 2014 midterms. The shock was when it came into effect and 7-9 million people had their insurance policies cancelled, which was by design. People began to realize they'd been lied to and used.

    Even those who got subsidized policies found that deductibles and copays were huge compared to previous policies, and the networks were very small, as Obamacare reimbursement rates are so low. So although you have insurance, you don't necessarily have access to healthcare.

    One of my acquaintances, a restaurant server, was gleefull when he got his Obamacare policy with a heavily subsidized premium. He even has an Obama decal on his car. His deductible before the insurance kicks in is $7,000. He was not a happy bunny. Also his doctor, neurologist and local hospital don't accept Obamacare.

    When something is theoretical most folks don't care. When it becomes fact and affects them adversely they take notice. That's not 'little difference'.
  • Tim_B said:


    2012 was interesting. It's almost as if there were two Democratic Parties - one to reelect Barack Obama and one for everyone else, which didn't do nearly as well.

    Also of course Obamacare had not taken effect by then, and the keep your plan, keep your doctor, save $2500 per year, no effect on the deficit, etc was still being heavily pushed. The gullible believed.

    How does the "finally figured out what's in ObamaCare" theory handle the Dems getting hammered in the previous mid-terms as well?

    A simpler explanation would be that Dem voters can't be arsed with mid-terms.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Caught some of Milibands pathetic, whining, self-pitying speech on news earlier...

    Ugh come back Gord all is forgiven!

    And your point? You don't like Labour and you don't like Miliband - so what?




    I don't mind Labour really, but your right I don't like Miliband. And the vast majority of the GBP agrees with me it seems...
    That would be true of all party leaders, that the majority dislike them. The exception might be Nigel Paul Farage, but I would need to check the figures
    There are degrees of unpopularity though? Ed's right at the extreme end of unpopularity and hasn't even done anything to make himself unpopular yet, LOL!

    He's not serious. He isn't a credible candidate. He's like Hague and IDS and Foot. A complete and total dud.
    Many said the same of Margaret Hilda Thatcher.
    Miliband is no Thatcher.

    Not even close. Never has been and never will be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    KentRising The woman in red was a LD I have not heard of, Leanne Wood is also running a left of Labour platform in Wales which might appeal to you
  • It looks like evens for Stephen's latest 2015 GE seats projection in terms of the current share of the vote he will apply in his model later this morning.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    chestnut said:

    The calibre of mind on tonight's Question Time panel - Rod Liddle excepted - is even lower than that of the audience. And that's saying something. Who are these minnows?

    Rod Liddle isn't anything to write home about either.

    Roll on devo-max.

    The sooner England is free, the better.
    Amen to that.
    Is this the same guy that was editor of the Today Program and IIRC cheated on his new wife?
    What relevance does his private life have? I would prefer we more like France in this regard, than the puritanical United States
    His job is his private life? Someone's private life can be revealing as to what sort of person they are. Hardly 'puritanical', merely more data to process.
  • Tim_B said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimB The shape and form of Obamacare was clear in 2012 I really see little difference now, if you were opposed to it you would have voted for Romney

    Never mind 2012 - it was clear in 2010. In 2012 it hadn't taken effect. A majority didn't like it before it was passed. After it passed there was the bloodbath of the 2010 midterms. After it took effect in 2013 there was the 2014 midterms. The shock was when it came into effect and 7-9 million people had their insurance policies cancelled, which was by design. People began to realize they'd been lied to and used.

    Even those who got subsidized policies found that deductibles and copays were huge compared to previous policies, and the networks were very small, as Obamacare reimbursement rates are so low. So although you have insurance, you don't necessarily have access to healthcare.

    One of my acquaintances, a restaurant server, was gleefull when he got his Obamacare policy with a heavily subsidized premium. He even has an Obama decal on his car. His deductible before the insurance kicks in is $7,000. He was not a happy bunny. Also his doctor, neurologist and local hospital don't accept Obamacare.

    When something is theoretical most folks don't care. When it becomes fact and affects them adversely they take notice. That's not 'little difference'.
    What an absurd system the US has contrived. Health insurance not accepted by healthcare providers. Furiously expensive and bogged down in form filling and admin. Time consuming and stressful. No wonder the US based section of my family pines for the NHS. It is far from perfect, but at least one doesn't have to sign in triplicate and brandish a calculator when one breaks ones arm
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Aussie PM: "the ISIL death-cult that has declared war on the world..."

    powerful and eloquent words
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Tim_B said:


    2012 was interesting. It's almost as if there were two Democratic Parties - one to reelect Barack Obama and one for everyone else, which didn't do nearly as well.

    Also of course Obamacare had not taken effect by then, and the keep your plan, keep your doctor, save $2500 per year, no effect on the deficit, etc was still being heavily pushed. The gullible believed.

    How does the "finally figured out what's in ObamaCare" theory handle the Dems getting hammered in the previous mid-terms as well?

    A simpler explanation would be that Dem voters can't be arsed with mid-terms.
    Hammered is a gross exaggeration , they certainly lost support but to nothing like the extent of say Labour in 2007-2009 or the Conservatives in 1994 -1996 for example .
This discussion has been closed.