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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Roch

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  • DavidL said:

    A fairly consistent trend over the last couple of years is that when Ed drifts into think tank mode and disappears from our screens Labour drift somewhat higher but when he is on the news they drift lower.

    It is quite brave of him to test that theory when Labour are already lower (mainly thanks to him of course).

    It may just be me but is another vacuous soundbite like the zero zero economy really the way to go? The day after real wages finally started rising again. In a country where an ever increasing share of the tax burden is borne by the highest paid? Is this latest critique going to have a longer shelf life than the squeezed middle? He really is risking simply keeping the story going with another banal speech made up of sociological terminology which people struggle to ascribe meaning to.

    Ed Miliband and you might be falling into the same trap. It is individual voters' economic circumstances that matter, not the headline aggregate figures, so the question is: whose real wages are rising and whose are not?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    Indigo said:

    Socrates said:

    It makes sense to have some degree of positive discrimination for women, as women's brains are shown to work slightly differently to men, so you benefit by having a mixed team with different approaches to a problem. Only a racist would say that a black man's brain works differently to a white man's brain, so with regards to race we should be colour blind.

    Justify that "slightly"...

    http://www.dana.org/Cerebrum/2014/Equal_≠_The_Same__Sex_Differences_in_the_Human_Brain/
    I suggest you read it again. Apart from anything else, what would "slightly" mean in this context?

    Lets stop arguing semantics for the sake of it. I could have said "significantly", or "massively" and got the same answer. Men and women's brains are different, in lots of significant, scientifically measurable ways, I am not going to get into an argument whether a particular difference is a slight or major difference, thats a matter of opinion. There are however, lots of differences, it would be fair to assume some are "slight", others less so.
    The brains of women exhibit significantly stronger patterns of interconnectivity across brain regions-including across the hemispheres-than do the brains of men, which conversely exhibit significantly greater average connectivity within local brain regions
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    JackW said:

    Icarus said:

    Jack, Have just accepted an offer. So looking for something to rent in reach of Northampton. Preferably with an Aga!!

    Very good.

    May I ask .... two or four oven? .... and why Northampton?

    You can get 3 oven now, and I assume therefore 5 oven too.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498

    Further evidence UKIP voters are a breed apart- net support for

    UKIP (OA)
    Positive discrimination for women in employment: +9 (+21)
    Positive discrimination for ethnic minorities in employment: -29 (+6)
    Right of same sex couples to marry: -12 (+30)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dil2gusjn0/RedBoxResults_141111_political_issues_website.pdf

    Maybe it's because they are around twice as likely to have first had sex at 15 or under?

    Obviously life was better in the 50’s.

    (My recall for that era says no it wasn’t as easy as it appears to be now. Anecdotes available if required!?
    People were much happier though
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    NickP,

    Gordon got a sympathy vote over the Sun and the signature, but that was because he was trying to do the right thing and we knew he only had one eye. Ed's problem is that he appears gormless at times, and in a potential PM with his finger (theoretically) on the red button, that's worrying.

    After a certain stage, constant harrying will be counter-productive, as Ukip have found to their benefit; especially when it has a definite political edge. But laughing at the clown may well get boring before it becomes a sympathy vote.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    OT

    Thirteen people have been arrested over a trafficking ring which saw a pregnant woman almost tricked into an abortion following a sham marriage.

    The 20-year-old from Slovakia was sold for up to £15,000 by a gang in Greater Manchester who organised a marriage to a man facing deportation, police said.

    Officers were alerted when the woman told an interpreter she had been "sold against her will" and was "appalled" by the prospect of an abortion.

    Ten men and three women were arrested.

    The group, aged between 24 and 57, was arrested on suspicion of various offences including trafficking people for exploitation and conspiracy to facilitate breach of immigration law.
    'Nefarious motives'

    In May the woman, who was 25 weeks pregnant, was flown to Luton, believing she was going to visit her sister.

    She was met by a man, claiming to be her sister's friend and was taken to an address in Failsworth, Oldham.

    In July, the pair married under Sharia law in Rochdale.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-30033201
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341



    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.

    What do you imagine that Mr and Mrs White Van Man make of Ed Miliband walking around in an "I'm a Feminist" t-shirt?

    Do they see a Prime Minister?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Patrick said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Translation: You hope your gimp will get a sympathy vote. Good luck with that.
    List of politicians who have won due to a sympathy vote ;

    Er...

  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Financier said:

    OT

    Thirteen people have been arrested over a trafficking ring which saw a pregnant woman almost tricked into an abortion following a sham marriage.

    The 20-year-old from Slovakia was sold for up to £15,000 by a gang in Greater Manchester who organised a marriage to a man facing deportation, police said.

    Officers were alerted when the woman told an interpreter she had been "sold against her will" and was "appalled" by the prospect of an abortion.

    Ten men and three women were arrested.

    The group, aged between 24 and 57, was arrested on suspicion of various offences including trafficking people for exploitation and conspiracy to facilitate breach of immigration law.
    'Nefarious motives'

    In May the woman, who was 25 weeks pregnant, was flown to Luton, believing she was going to visit her sister.

    She was met by a man, claiming to be her sister's friend and was taken to an address in Failsworth, Oldham.

    In July, the pair married under Sharia law in Rochdale.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-30033201

    Then later on in the article..

    "Police said they believed there were currently 400 cases of sham marriages in Manchester."

    What's the spread on the number that were carried out under sharia law?
  • So we will be the wealth creators, not just the wealth distributors;

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/11/13/Leaked-Miliband-Speech

    I wonder what specific policies he will outline?
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    Financier said:

    OT

    Thirteen people have been arrested over a trafficking ring which saw a pregnant woman almost tricked into an abortion following a sham marriage.

    The 20-year-old from Slovakia was sold for up to £15,000 by a gang in Greater Manchester who organised a marriage to a man facing deportation, police said.

    Officers were alerted when the woman told an interpreter she had been "sold against her will" and was "appalled" by the prospect of an abortion.

    Ten men and three women were arrested.

    The group, aged between 24 and 57, was arrested on suspicion of various offences including trafficking people for exploitation and conspiracy to facilitate breach of immigration law.
    'Nefarious motives'

    In May the woman, who was 25 weeks pregnant, was flown to Luton, believing she was going to visit her sister.

    She was met by a man, claiming to be her sister's friend and was taken to an address in Failsworth, Oldham.

    In July, the pair married under Sharia law in Rochdale.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-30033201

    Then later on in the article..

    "Police said they believed there were currently 400 cases of sham marriages in Manchester."

    What's the spread on the number that were carried out under sharia law?
    Sharia law marriages are rarely legal unless the imam is also a Deputy Registrar. Very few are. This constitutes a criminal offence.

    The list of laws not enforced against Muslims in this country just grows longer.

    Planning regulations
    School regulations
    Marriage laws
    [Moderated]
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    So we will be the wealth creators, not just the wealth distributors;

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/11/13/Leaked-Miliband-Speech

    I wonder what specific policies he will outline?

    Looks like the Labour- Kipper love in is over.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited November 2014
    I'm hoping that we might get a post later from Henry G Manson on EdM etc. If something will/won't happen Henry will be the first to know!
  • CD13 said:

    NickP,

    Gordon got a sympathy vote over the Sun and the signature, but that was because he was trying to do the right thing and we knew he only had one eye. Ed's problem is that he appears gormless at times, and in a potential PM with his finger (theoretically) on the red button, that's worrying.

    After a certain stage, constant harrying will be counter-productive, as Ukip have found to their benefit; especially when it has a definite political edge. But laughing at the clown may well get boring before it becomes a sympathy vote.

    Constant harrying is counter-productive when it comes from a privileged elite unfairly using their power against a weaker opponent who deserves a fair hearing. Miliband is Leader of the Opposition and so already has a powerful platform. He is fair game, providing the criticism is seen as legitimate and chimes with a public perception.
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    That's certainly an optimistic view. I think you overestimate how much attention people pay to the news. The drip-drip of "Ed is a loser" will only solidify views.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    edited November 2014
    Patrick

    "What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?"

    It'll be neutral. I agree with Nick to a point. The negative coverage has gone well over the top and most people are fair so will give him a hearing.

    I've tried hard to stay optimistic since his spirited performance during the Syrian bombing episode. It was a worthwhille cause as evnts have shown but that was a long time ago.

    Since then we have been forced to watch Alex Salmond leading a great left wing crusade in Scotland (and taking Labour's voters) while Ed has hidden under the table only occasionally popping up to ape UKIP. When he's spoken he's been incoherent.

    I'm afraid its become too depressing to watch. He doesn't know how to hold the rifle let alone where to point it. Labour should offer Salmond all the money its got to teach Milliband how to look like a left of centre leader with a cause that peole want to follow.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    NickP,

    Incidentally, I saw the interview with David M last night about his work with Syria. He may not be my favourite politician, but I can see why you voted for him and not his bro. I suspect you made the right decision but that's history now.

    Young bro is going nowhere (in more ways than one).
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    On topic.

    if under-prompting depresses the shares then over-prompting could have the opposite effect

    Not the way I think, Mike.

    My objection to not prompting for UKIP is that the ballot DOES prompt for UKIP.

    Has this by-election "prompted" for Reckless? Judging by PB, yes. I mean, has Kelly Tollhurst acquired her own epithet?

    As an aside, selecting what is basicly a Kipper as the Tory candidate doesn't seem to have worked for the Tories. This bodes well for Farage in Thanet South where he is up against a former leader of UKIP.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    malcolmg said:

    Further evidence UKIP voters are a breed apart- net support for

    UKIP (OA)
    Positive discrimination for women in employment: +9 (+21)
    Positive discrimination for ethnic minorities in employment: -29 (+6)
    Right of same sex couples to marry: -12 (+30)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dil2gusjn0/RedBoxResults_141111_political_issues_website.pdf

    Maybe it's because they are around twice as likely to have first had sex at 15 or under?

    Obviously life was better in the 50’s.

    (My recall for that era says no it wasn’t as easy as it appears to be now. Anecdotes available if required!?
    People were much happier though
    I think I've said this before, but Ian Macdonald (the author of Revolution in the Head) argued that anyone born between 1945 and 1955 and therefore a teenager in the 60s enjoyed the greatest years to be alive, culturally and in terms of opportunity etc.

    Ironically, Macdonald - himself born around 1945 - committed suicide later in life!

    Nevertheless, Revolution in the Head is a wonderful book and he paints a picture of the late 50s and the 60s as a great time to be a teenager.

    Anyone who has read Stephen King's (born in 1947ish) books too, will be aware of his nostalgic view of that era. King essentially argues in his books that the Vietnam War changed everything. He famously opens his Hearts in Atlantis book with the Easy Rider quote "we blew it".
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Doesn't Ed's PR people know that no government can be wealth creators, it can only set out the environment whereby wealth can be created.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    CD13 said:

    NickP,

    Gordon got a sympathy vote over the Sun and the signature, but that was because he was trying to do the right thing and we knew he only had one eye. Ed's problem is that he appears gormless at times, and in a potential PM with his finger (theoretically) on the red button, that's worrying.

    After a certain stage, constant harrying will be counter-productive, as Ukip have found to their benefit; especially when it has a definite political edge. But laughing at the clown may well get boring before it becomes a sympathy vote.

    Constant harrying is counter-productive when it comes from a privileged elite unfairly using their power against a weaker opponent who deserves a fair hearing. Miliband is Leader of the Opposition and so already has a powerful platform. He is fair game, providing the criticism is seen as legitimate and chimes with a public perception.
    Is there any evidence that the press are making up all of the internal Labour criticism of Ed M, or pressuring MPs into briefing against their leader? Miliband's problem lies
    1. with the public
    2. with his MPs

    end of.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    The peak of the anti-Ed hostile coverage was the Observer and its story about the 20 shadow ministers. Was this then a clever ploy by the Labour Party and the left wing press to make people feel sorry your hopeless leader?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Financier said:

    Doesn't Ed's PR people know that no government can be wealth creators, it can only set out the environment whereby wealth can be created.

    They can grow magic money trees
  • I thought Ed was to make a really important speech last Monday on Europe!!
    probably another really really important speech tomorrow
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    DavidL said:

    ...

    The most interesting part of the Ashcroft poll was of course the part indicating that the tories may well recover the seat in May. That is a curious effect. No doubt it is a lack of imagination on my part but I really can't see circumstances in which I would vote differently in a by election and then less than 6 months later. I can imagine turnout being different but why would people change their vote when being asked the same question? Maybe its just me.

    People like the kick the government between real elections...the only question mark is whether enough people will still want to kick the Conservatives next year
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Just to add. Lord Ashcroft invited me to his office yesterday where we met for the first time and had great discussion on polling. I mentioned the above thoughts on Rochester.

    He's a really nice guy and it was real pleasure seeing him

    Must be great to meet someone so involved in a matter which interests you

    On that point I am quite amazed that you haven't said a word about the revelation that Jim Messina was behind the push polling in Rochester that bad mouthed Mark Reckless... Surely this is a massive development for so done as interested in polls as you? You were very keen to find out about it when Carswell accused the Conservatives of being involved

    What do you think of it all?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    just like all those other "no offence committed" inquiries we have going at present in England which will reach the same result.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,407
    Ed's "tackling inequality" theme seems to me like he's trying to shore up his left flank from SNP/Greens. I doubt it will work with SNP switchers, Salmond is too charismatic but Labour must feel they can get back some of the green vote still - though as a fair chunk of that has come from the Lib Dems it will be a tough ask.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    Fenster said:

    malcolmg said:

    Further evidence UKIP voters are a breed apart- net support for

    UKIP (OA)
    Positive discrimination for women in employment: +9 (+21)
    Positive discrimination for ethnic minorities in employment: -29 (+6)
    Right of same sex couples to marry: -12 (+30)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dil2gusjn0/RedBoxResults_141111_political_issues_website.pdf

    Maybe it's because they are around twice as likely to have first had sex at 15 or under?

    Obviously life was better in the 50’s.

    (My recall for that era says no it wasn’t as easy as it appears to be now. Anecdotes available if required!?
    People were much happier though
    I think I've said this before, but Ian Macdonald (the author of Revolution in the Head) argued that anyone born between 1945 and 1955 and therefore a teenager in the 60s enjoyed the greatest years to be alive, culturally and in terms of opportunity etc.

    Ironically, Macdonald - himself born around 1945 - committed suicide later in life!

    Nevertheless, Revolution in the Head is a wonderful book and he paints a picture of the late 50s and the 60s as a great time to be a teenager.

    Anyone who has read Stephen King's (born in 1947ish) books too, will be aware of his nostalgic view of that era. King essentially argues in his books that the Vietnam War changed everything. He famously opens his Hearts in Atlantis book with the Easy Rider quote "we blew it".
    Have to agree, my parents did not have lots of money , but my father worked, and childhood was great , we could afford a holiday. I loved 70's as well, everybody could work and you did not need much to enjoy life and even got monthly pay rises, anybody could afford a night out. I am even luckier now but lots and lots are not.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    just like all those other "no offence committed" inquiries we have going at present in England which will reach the same result.
    I was disappointed they didn't add that if it had been the real Salmond that again no offence would have been committed.

  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Just read an article on a subject I am barred from discussing.

    Isn't it sad to see such a prevalence of Selective Memory Loss amongst such highly-paid and educated politicians, civil servants and journalists.

    Perhaps we could have a whip-round at Dirty Dicks in aid of relieving this dreadful affliction?
  • Roger said:

    Patrick

    "What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?"

    It'll be neutral. I agree with Nick to a point. The negative coverage has gone well over the top and most people are fair so will give him a hearing.

    Most people are only marginally interested in politics and won't give him a hearing at all. Many of people who'll vote next year don't even bother to vote at local or Euro-elections, never mind pay attention to unprompted speeches by the LotO. They've had four years to make up their mind as to whether he deserves a hearing and appear to have decided 'no'.
    Roger said:

    I've tried hard to stay optimistic since his spirited performance during the Syrian bombing episode. It was a worthwhille cause as evnts have shown but that was a long time ago.

    Hmm. The effect of Western non-intervention in Syria was that Assad's forces gained the upper hand on one side against the FSA, while ISIS gained on the other. Meanwhile, Putin eyed the opportunity while the West flagged up that it had no desire for foreign adventures, annexed part of a sovereign state and clearly has designs on more. That's Ed's foreign policy legacy.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,498
    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    just like all those other "no offence committed" inquiries we have going at present in England which will reach the same result.
    I was disappointed they didn't add that if it had been the real Salmond that again no offence would have been committed.

    Sure they would have got same result and subsequent establishment enquiry headed by one of their chums would have found the required result.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    malcolmg said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    just like all those other "no offence committed" inquiries we have going at present in England which will reach the same result.
    I was disappointed they didn't add that if it had been the real Salmond that again no offence would have been committed.

    Sure they would have got same result and subsequent establishment enquiry headed by one of their chums would have found the required result.
    No but Stagecoach will be running extra services on the offended bus next November incase there is a repeat.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    edited November 2014
    Financier said:

    Doesn't Ed's PR people know that no government can be wealth creators, it can only set out the environment whereby wealth can be created.

    No, I think they genuinely believe that governments and government spending creates wealth in a self sustaining cycle. It is quite alarming.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Financier

    "Thirteen people have been arrested over a trafficking ring which saw a pregnant woman almost tricked into an abortion following a sham marriage."

    A totally illogical and therefore ridiculous story. A gang tricked a pregnant woman to come from Slovakia against her will to marry a man who was about to be deported. She also was obliged to have an abortion.

    Wouldn't it have been cheaper and simpler to find an unpregnant woman from Longsight to do the same thing. Methinks Greater Manchester police need a new Slovakian interpreter
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Indigo said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Further evidence UKIP voters are a breed apart- net support for

    UKIP (OA)
    Positive discrimination for women in employment: +9 (+21)
    Positive discrimination for ethnic minorities in employment: -29 (+6)
    Right of same sex couples to marry: -12 (+30)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dil2gusjn0/RedBoxResults_141111_political_issues_website.pdf

    Maybe it's because they are around twice as likely to have first had sex at 15 or under?

    It's all in the wording.
    The wording was the same for UKIP voters as everyone else. Their response was different.

    Actually it's Labour supporters whose response is markedly different from the rest. On "Positive" discrimination for ethnic minorities, Conservative voters are opposed by 12%, Lib Dems are evenly divided. Labour are in favour by 32%. WRT discrimination in favour of women, Conservatives are evenly divided, Labour in favour by 41%.
    On same sex marriage, a majority of other party voters supported it. A majority of UKIP voters opposed it.

    Even the 60+ demographic were evenly split (all others heavily in favour)
    On the other two issues, it's Labour voters who are the outlier.
    On ethnic Minorities both Labour and UKIP are at the extremes:

    Net support:
    Lab: +32
    LibD: +2
    Con: -12
    UKIP: -29 (60+: -9)
    So, right wing voters tend to be hostile. Left wing voters are supportive. That's not a very surprising finding.

    But these "right wing voters" were much more relaxed about gender based positve discrimination:

    Net support:
    Lab: +39
    UKIP: +9
    LibD: +8
    Con: +2

    It's only when you get to ethnic minorities and gays that they discover their "social conservatism".......
    By and large people dont worry about women changing the culture of their country...

    Margaret Thatcher Excepted - the left still worry about her a quarter of a century after she left No 10.
  • Roger said:

    Patrick

    "What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?"

    It'll be neutral. I agree with Nick to a point. The negative coverage has gone well over the top and most people are fair so will give him a hearing.

    Most people are only marginally interested in politics and won't give him a hearing at all. Many of people who'll vote next year don't even bother to vote at local or Euro-elections, never mind pay attention to unprompted speeches by the LotO. They've had four years to make up their mind as to whether he deserves a hearing and appear to have decided 'no'.
    Roger said:

    I've tried hard to stay optimistic since his spirited performance during the Syrian bombing episode. It was a worthwhille cause as evnts have shown but that was a long time ago.

    Hmm. The effect of Western non-intervention in Syria was that Assad's forces gained the upper hand on one side against the FSA, while ISIS gained on the other. Meanwhile, Putin eyed the opportunity while the West flagged up that it had no desire for foreign adventures, annexed part of a sovereign state and clearly has designs on more. That's Ed's foreign policy legacy.
    Putin annexed Crimea because Ed Miliband did what exactly ... ? Even if we buy your analysis, Miliband is not running the United States, NATO or even HMG.
  • MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

    Keep the faith until the GE starts.
  • DavidL said:

    Financier said:

    Doesn't Ed's PR people know that no government can be wealth creators, it can only set out the environment whereby wealth can be created.

    No, I think they genuinely believe that governments and government spending creates wealth in a self sustaining cycle. It is quite alarming.
    What, you doubt Labour's magic money tree?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.
  • Hmmmm

    Labour MPs cheered jokes about killing the Royal Family and lynching a Tory Cabinet minister at a tasteless Remembrance Sunday event, it emerged last night

    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Among those attending the event at a club in Covent Garden were former shadow minister Diane Abbott and Left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn.

    They heard another Left-winger, John McDonnell give a speech joking about Employment Minister Esther McVey being lynched.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832286/Labour-MPs-cheered-jokes-lynching-Tory-minister-killing-royal-sick-alternative-poppy-day-comedy-night.html
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Although I don't like it when people say " the British people think..." Or " it's not the British way...' Etc, I do think it's fair to say that we don't like bullying of the perceived underdog in the way that seems popular American media

    I didn't particularly like Farage calling him an unelectable joke last night on twitter for that reason


  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Three unwise monkeys, Galloway, Livingstone & Rahman.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-30032251

    If George and Ken think that all is above board in Tower Hamlets, then Frances is my aunt, and Robert is my uncle.

  • Good article OGH - again a new insight that the papers do not provide.
  • On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

    The problem is that in the privacy of the voting booth, most voters dont want decency, honesty and integrity half as much as they want competence, someone that will maintain their lifestyle, and someone that will put money in their pockets rather than take it away.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,407

    Roger said:

    Patrick

    "What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?"

    It'll be neutral. I agree with Nick to a point. The negative coverage has gone well over the top and most people are fair so will give him a hearing.

    Most people are only marginally interested in politics and won't give him a hearing at all. Many of people who'll vote next year don't even bother to vote at local or Euro-elections, never mind pay attention to unprompted speeches by the LotO. They've had four years to make up their mind as to whether he deserves a hearing and appear to have decided 'no'.
    Roger said:

    I've tried hard to stay optimistic since his spirited performance during the Syrian bombing episode. It was a worthwhille cause as evnts have shown but that was a long time ago.

    Hmm. The effect of Western non-intervention in Syria was that Assad's forces gained the upper hand on one side against the FSA, while ISIS gained on the other. Meanwhile, Putin eyed the opportunity while the West flagged up that it had no desire for foreign adventures, annexed part of a sovereign state and clearly has designs on more. That's Ed's foreign policy legacy.
    Putin annexed Crimea because Ed Miliband did what exactly ... ? Even if we buy your analysis, Miliband is not running the United States, NATO or even HMG.
    Yeah but London NMRing in Syria can give Russia the space it needs to invade Ukraine.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Let's hope the bookies think like that too, although that's unlikely
  • weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.

    Hmmmm

    Labour MPs cheered jokes about killing the Royal Family and lynching a Tory Cabinet minister at a tasteless Remembrance Sunday event, it emerged last night

    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Among those attending the event at a club in Covent Garden were former shadow minister Diane Abbott and Left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn.

    They heard another Left-winger, John McDonnell give a speech joking about Employment Minister Esther McVey being lynched.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832286/Labour-MPs-cheered-jokes-lynching-Tory-minister-killing-royal-sick-alternative-poppy-day-comedy-night.html

    A rather pleasing conjunction of posts.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,407
    isam said:

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Let's hope the bookies think like that too, although that's unlikely
    Odds will depend on margin of victory and turnout I think, if Reckless wins by more than 10% he'll be favourite for the GE - if its say 42-37 then I think the Tories are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,407
    Which means it'll probably be 46-37 and I'll be stumped ^_~
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Poor Old Eck what a shame.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/scotland/

    "Salmond: I will miss weekly grilling."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.

    Hmmmm

    Labour MPs cheered jokes about killing the Royal Family and lynching a Tory Cabinet minister at a tasteless Remembrance Sunday event, it emerged last night

    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Among those attending the event at a club in Covent Garden were former shadow minister Diane Abbott and Left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn.

    They heard another Left-winger, John McDonnell give a speech joking about Employment Minister Esther McVey being lynched.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832286/Labour-MPs-cheered-jokes-lynching-Tory-minister-killing-royal-sick-alternative-poppy-day-comedy-night.html

    A rather pleasing conjunction of posts.
    divvie are you too much of a divvy to see the difference ?

    The 37%'ers wanted bonfire revellers arrested and the dear leaders image protected by law

    The Mail suggests you may not want to vote for a bunch of hypocrites.

    Bring your own chips to the bonfire next November - there is one on each shoulder.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    So Ed has decided what the UK needs is more Ed.

    Intellectual self confidence can lead to those sort of conclusions
  • TGOHF said:

    weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.

    Hmmmm

    Labour MPs cheered jokes about killing the Royal Family and lynching a Tory Cabinet minister at a tasteless Remembrance Sunday event, it emerged last night

    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Among those attending the event at a club in Covent Garden were former shadow minister Diane Abbott and Left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn.

    They heard another Left-winger, John McDonnell give a speech joking about Employment Minister Esther McVey being lynched.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832286/Labour-MPs-cheered-jokes-lynching-Tory-minister-killing-royal-sick-alternative-poppy-day-comedy-night.html

    A rather pleasing conjunction of posts.
    divvie are you too much of a divvy to see the difference ?

    The 37%'ers wanted bonfire revellers arrested and the dear leaders image protected by law

    The Mail suggests you may not want to vote for a bunch of hypocrites.

    Bring your own chips to the bonfire next November - there is one on each shoulder.
    Do you want a single or a return for the outrage bus?
  • Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.

    Hmmmm

    Labour MPs cheered jokes about killing the Royal Family and lynching a Tory Cabinet minister at a tasteless Remembrance Sunday event, it emerged last night

    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Among those attending the event at a club in Covent Garden were former shadow minister Diane Abbott and Left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn.

    They heard another Left-winger, John McDonnell give a speech joking about Employment Minister Esther McVey being lynched.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832286/Labour-MPs-cheered-jokes-lynching-Tory-minister-killing-royal-sick-alternative-poppy-day-comedy-night.html

    A rather pleasing conjunction of posts.
    divvie are you too much of a divvy to see the difference ?

    The 37%'ers wanted bonfire revellers arrested and the dear leaders image protected by law

    The Mail suggests you may not want to vote for a bunch of hypocrites.

    Bring your own chips to the bonfire next November - there is one on each shoulder.
    Do you want a single or a return for the outrage bus?
    No thanks - I laughed and laughed at both stories - your fellow neverendum numpties weren't quite so mellow.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    Isam

    "I didn't particularly like Farage calling him an unelectable joke last night on twitter for that reason"

    He has form....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oXSfEQuJjc
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

    @volcanopete
    Come on pete, This is a man who betrayed his brother with a well aimed union knife in the back. I know what shines through and it ain't decency,honesty and integrity; quite the opposite in fact.
  • On topic, the second most interesting about Lord Ashcroft yesterday, after meeting Mike was that the Times reported overnight

    Lord Ashcroft back among Tories’ top donors
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    ECJ Benefit ruling not quite as "excellent" as Dave hoped, doesn't appear to include in-work benefits. Hopes by other European politicians that is means PM can drop his need to control immigration seems rather wide of the mark.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2832420/Don-t-duped-Brussels-crackdown-benefit-tourists-EU-court-ruling-stopping-migrant-claiming-welfare-hailed-breakthrough-true-writes-DAVID-GREEN.html
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
    I see the traitorous pig dog is out of this Friday's match against the country that nurtured and schooled him as he has a hamstring injury - karma.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Let's hope the bookies think like that too, although that's unlikely
    Odds will depend on margin of victory and turnout I think, if Reckless wins by more than 10% he'll be favourite for the GE - if its say 42-37 then I think the Tories are.
    Yes but the post related to the Ashcroft poll which was over 10% wasn't it?
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    A pretty old but still rather accurate and amusing review of how the country sees weird Ed

    http://www.spiked-online.com/review_of_books/article/10944#.VGR9OssgGSN
  • TGOHF said:

    Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
    I see the traitorous pig dog is out of this Friday's match against the country that nurtured and schooled him as he has a hamstring injury - karma.

    He isn't as bad as Mark Reckless.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Ah, FIFA. The organisation that makes the way F1 is run look good.

    England's been criticised. Not sure if it's because we pointed out a summer tournament in 50C might not be very clever.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30031405
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Roger said:

    Isam

    "I didn't particularly like Farage calling him an unelectable joke last night on twitter for that reason"

    He has form....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oXSfEQuJjc

    No you miss the point... That isn't the same as Van Rompouy wasn't a struggling underdog. He had just been elected to one if the most powerful positions in the world
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
    I see the traitorous pig dog is out of this Friday's match against the country that nurtured and schooled him as he has a hamstring injury - karma.

    He's saving himself for the finals in France, Harry. We'll send you a postcard.

  • Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
    I see the traitorous pig dog is out of this Friday's match against the country that nurtured and schooled him as he has a hamstring injury - karma.

    He's saving himself for the finals in France, Harry. We'll send you a postcard.

    Did you see last night, I'm mulling a double on Ireland winning the six nations and World Cup.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
    I see the traitorous pig dog is out of this Friday's match against the country that nurtured and schooled him as he has a hamstring injury - karma.

    He's saving himself for the finals in France, Harry. We'll send you a postcard.

    Did you see last night, I'm mulling a double on Ireland winning the six nations and World Cup.
    I hope you hold out for some good odds.
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.

    Hmmmm

    Labour MPs cheered jokes about killing the Royal Family and lynching a Tory Cabinet minister at a tasteless Remembrance Sunday event, it emerged last night

    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Among those attending the event at a club in Covent Garden were former shadow minister Diane Abbott and Left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn.

    They heard another Left-winger, John McDonnell give a speech joking about Employment Minister Esther McVey being lynched.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832286/Labour-MPs-cheered-jokes-lynching-Tory-minister-killing-royal-sick-alternative-poppy-day-comedy-night.html

    A rather pleasing conjunction of posts.
    divvie are you too much of a divvy to see the difference ?

    The 37%'ers wanted bonfire revellers arrested and the dear leaders image protected by law

    The Mail suggests you may not want to vote for a bunch of hypocrites.

    Bring your own chips to the bonfire next November - there is one on each shoulder.
    Do you want a single or a return for the outrage bus?
    No thanks - I laughed and laughed at both stories - your fellow neverendum numpties weren't quite so mellow.
    Red-face reactionary dressed in 'The' Rangers onesie, laughing gormlessly at a computer screen.

    An image to treasure.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,704
    malcolmg said:

    Fenster said:

    malcolmg said:

    Further evidence UKIP voters are a breed apart- net support for

    UKIP (OA)
    Positive discrimination for women in employment: +9 (+21)
    Positive discrimination for ethnic minorities in employment: -29 (+6)
    Right of same sex couples to marry: -12 (+30)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dil2gusjn0/RedBoxResults_141111_political_issues_website.pdf

    Maybe it's because they are around twice as likely to have first had sex at 15 or under?

    Obviously life was better in the 50’s.

    (My recall for that era says no it wasn’t as easy as it appears to be now. Anecdotes available if required!?
    People were much happier though
    I think I've said this before, but Ian Macdonald (the author of Revolution in the Head) argued that anyone born between 1945 and 1955 and therefore a teenager in the 60s enjoyed the greatest years to be alive, culturally and in terms of opportunity etc.

    Ironically, Macdonald - himself born around 1945 - committed suicide later in life!

    Nevertheless, Revolution in the Head is a wonderful book and he paints a picture of the late 50s and the 60s as a great time to be a teenager.

    Anyone who has read Stephen King's (born in 1947ish) books too, will be aware of his nostalgic view of that era. King essentially argues in his books that the Vietnam War changed everything. He famously opens his Hearts in Atlantis book with the Easy Rider quote "we blew it".
    Have to agree, my parents did not have lots of money , but my father worked, and childhood was great , we could afford a holiday. I loved 70's as well, everybody could work and you did not need much to enjoy life and even got monthly pay rises, anybody could afford a night out. I am even luckier now but lots and lots are not.
    Big dramatic improvement (as far as I was concerned anyway) was the ending of National Service in 1960. Suddenly for young men like me loads of doors opened, especially that of travel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,407
    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

    @volcanopete
    Come on pete, This is a man who betrayed his brother with a well aimed union knife in the back. I know what shines through and it ain't decency,honesty and integrity; quite the opposite in fact.
    For the love of...

    Of all the critisicsms aimed at Ed Miliband running for the Labour party top job with his brother, his brother that had a golden opportunity with Purnell's resignation to get rid of calamity Brown at the top of the shop and who bottled it, this is oversold and piss weak.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    edited November 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Roger said:

    Patrick

    "What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?"

    It'll be neutral. I agree with Nick to a point. The negative coverage has gone well over the top and most people are fair so will give him a hearing.

    Most people are only marginally interested in politics and won't give him a hearing at all. Many of people who'll vote next year don't even bother to vote at local or Euro-elections, never mind pay attention to unprompted speeches by the LotO. They've had four years to make up their mind as to whether he deserves a hearing and appear to have decided 'no'.
    Roger said:

    I've tried hard to stay optimistic since his spirited performance during the Syrian bombing episode. It was a worthwhille cause as evnts have shown but that was a long time ago.

    Hmm. The effect of Western non-intervention in Syria was that Assad's forces gained the upper hand on one side against the FSA, while ISIS gained on the other. Meanwhile, Putin eyed the opportunity while the West flagged up that it had no desire for foreign adventures, annexed part of a sovereign state and clearly has designs on more. That's Ed's foreign policy legacy.
    Putin annexed Crimea because Ed Miliband did what exactly ... ? Even if we buy your analysis, Miliband is not running the United States, NATO or even HMG.
    Yeah but London NMRing in Syria can give Russia the space it needs to invade Ukraine.
    Russia had not previously reintegrated Crimea, even when Crimea voted to do so in 1994, because Ukraine was a friendly nation, when the US overthrew the elected government and installed a hostile one that changed and the Crimean request accepted. Intended Western actions in Syria merely confirmed that the West could not be trusted and was dangerous, especially coming on the back of Libya where anarchy reigned and international law ignored.
  • Neil said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
    I see the traitorous pig dog is out of this Friday's match against the country that nurtured and schooled him as he has a hamstring injury - karma.

    He's saving himself for the finals in France, Harry. We'll send you a postcard.

    Did you see last night, I'm mulling a double on Ireland winning the six nations and World Cup.
    I hope you hold out for some good odds.
    I looked last night, and saw I had already backed Ireland for the world cup last year at 22/1
  • Mr. Eagles, can't see them winning the World Cup.
  • Morning Mike.

    Yes, the question looks a touch tendentious, but wasn't the poll broadly in line with earlier polls?

    My notes indicate leads of 11%, 13%, 15% (Survation) and of course his Lordship's poll which gave 12%.

    You two must have had a very interesting discussion. What a great honour for him to meet you!
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801

    Indigo said:

    Socrates said:

    It makes sense to have some degree of positive discrimination for women, as women's brains are shown to work slightly differently to men, so you benefit by having a mixed team with different approaches to a problem. Only a racist would say that a black man's brain works differently to a white man's brain, so with regards to race we should be colour blind.

    Justify that "slightly"...

    http://www.dana.org/Cerebrum/2014/Equal_≠_The_Same__Sex_Differences_in_the_Human_Brain/
    I suggest you read it again. Apart from anything else, what would "slightly" mean in this context?

    A Norwegian comedian did some very funny documentaries done on sociology and its fast and loose approach to science, actually got an institution shutdown by the government on the back of it.

    http://www.reddit.com/r/TheRedPill/comments/1vuho8/the_documentary_that_made_scandinavians_cut_all/
  • Mr. Eagles, can't see them winning the World Cup.

    Well they gave the Springboks a shellacking last week, which I backed last week.

    Although I am loathe to back any side with the vile Cian Healy in it
  • weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.
    What has "the left" got to do with the price of fish? It is becoming common on here for posters to attribute anything they dislike to their political opponents. Is it "the left" or Scots Nationalists more likely to have been offended by burning the sainted Alex?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

    @volcanopete
    Come on pete, This is a man who betrayed his brother with a well aimed union knife in the back. I know what shines through and it ain't decency,honesty and integrity; quite the opposite in fact.
    For the love of...

    Of all the critisicsms aimed at Ed Miliband running for the Labour party top job with his brother, his brother that had a golden opportunity with Purnell's resignation to get rid of calamity Brown at the top of the shop and who bottled it, this is oversold and piss weak.
    Worse than that. If David had bothered to fight for the lower preferences of some of his PLP colleagues he would have won. But he didnt. Worst leadership campaign ever.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,407
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Let's hope the bookies think like that too, although that's unlikely
    Odds will depend on margin of victory and turnout I think, if Reckless wins by more than 10% he'll be favourite for the GE - if its say 42-37 then I think the Tories are.
    Yes but the post related to the Ashcroft poll which was over 10% wasn't it?
    If Reckless wins by that amount then you should be in clover as the Tories will be perhaps 6-4 to win the seat with UKIP odds on.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    So Ed has decided what the UK needs is more Ed.

    @simonsketch: "That which doesn't kill you makes you stronger."Ed Miliband declares war on his party.

    @simonsketch: Ed will say we are a "deeply unequal, deeply unfair, deeply unjust country". Why does he say he loves Britain, he doesn't like us at all!

    @simonsketch: And if we're so unfair, unequal and unjust, why are the poor of Europe flocking here in their millions to work?

    I can't see any problems at all with this strategy. We want more Ed. All Ed, all the time...
    If we are so unfair and unjust perhaps Ed could explain what the last Labour government did to put things right?

    Oh
  • Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

    @volcanopete
    Come on pete, This is a man who betrayed his brother with a well aimed union knife in the back. I know what shines through and it ain't decency,honesty and integrity; quite the opposite in fact.
    For the love of...

    Of all the critisicsms aimed at Ed Miliband running for the Labour party top job with his brother, his brother that had a golden opportunity with Purnell's resignation to get rid of calamity Brown at the top of the shop and who bottled it, this is oversold and piss weak.
    Worse than that. If David had bothered to fight for the lower preferences of some of his PLP colleagues he would have won. But he didnt. Worst leadership campaign ever.
    I think you're forgetting Michael Portillo's leadership campaign in 2001.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Another slice of the wacky wisdom of TSE, who sees all things through a prism of the deepest turquoise.
  • Roger said:

    Patrick

    "What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?"

    It'll be neutral. I agree with Nick to a point. The negative coverage has gone well over the top and most people are fair so will give him a hearing.

    Most people are only marginally interested in politics and won't give him a hearing at all. Many of people who'll vote next year don't even bother to vote at local or Euro-elections, never mind pay attention to unprompted speeches by the LotO. They've had four years to make up their mind as to whether he deserves a hearing and appear to have decided 'no'.
    Roger said:

    I've tried hard to stay optimistic since his spirited performance during the Syrian bombing episode. It was a worthwhille cause as evnts have shown but that was a long time ago.

    Hmm. The effect of Western non-intervention in Syria was that Assad's forces gained the upper hand on one side against the FSA, while ISIS gained on the other. Meanwhile, Putin eyed the opportunity while the West flagged up that it had no desire for foreign adventures, annexed part of a sovereign state and clearly has designs on more. That's Ed's foreign policy legacy.
    Putin annexed Crimea because Ed Miliband did what exactly ... ? Even if we buy your analysis, Miliband is not running the United States, NATO or even HMG.
    There is a link between Ed's posturing on Syria and the Crimea (and let's remember, it wasn't principled opposition but a desire to have parliament support his motion rather than the government's that led to the defeat of both).

    The vote in the Commons stiffened resistance in Congress. That sapping of confidence on both sides of the Atlantic was a factor in both Putin's aggression in the Crimea and Ukraine more generally and the lack of resolve in the response.

    I am not saying that the one is directly responsible for the other, and more than Versailles was directly responsible for WWII, but nor can the consequences be ignored.

    And now I must be off for the day.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    isam said:

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Let's hope the bookies think like that too, although that's unlikely
    Odds will depend on margin of victory and turnout I think, if Reckless wins by more than 10% he'll be favourite for the GE - if its say 42-37 then I think the Tories are.
    Yes but the post related to the Ashcroft poll which was over 10% wasn't it?
    If Reckless wins by that amount then you should be in clover as the Tories will be perhaps 6-4 to win the seat with UKIP odds on.
    Yeah I think they'll be a lot bigger than that
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    MikeK said:

    Patrick said:

    Flash PB poll please:
    What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
    A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
    B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
    C. Meh. Nothing changes.

    I think people feel the media coverage has strayed into trivial bullying - the hissing of the reporter asking the leadership question at the CBI conference was one example of people getting fed up - and we'll see some recovery. not necessarily because of the speech and the strong BBC interview last night, but because he's been oversold by the hostile coverage. An optimistic view is that people have actually been inoculated by the personal attacks going OTT too early: it's going to be hard to keep them up till May.
    Sorry Nick what you've just written above is wishful nonsense. Ed Miliband is a dead man walking, nothing you or Labour do before the election will make him live again.

    Ed's decency,honesty and integrity will shine through in the end-no secret deals with Murdoch and Dacre either.

    @volcanopete
    Come on pete, This is a man who betrayed his brother with a well aimed union knife in the back. I know what shines through and it ain't decency,honesty and integrity; quite the opposite in fact.
    For the love of...

    Of all the critisicsms aimed at Ed Miliband running for the Labour party top job with his brother, his brother that had a golden opportunity with Purnell's resignation to get rid of calamity Brown at the top of the shop and who bottled it, this is oversold and piss weak.
    Worse than that. If David had bothered to fight for the lower preferences of some of his PLP colleagues he would have won. But he didnt. Worst leadership campaign ever.
    I think you're forgetting Michael Portillo's leadership campaign in 2001.
    Hey, I'm not saying that David Miliband was any good. Both a heap of rubbish. Yeah!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MikeK said:

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Another slice of the wacky wisdom of TSE, who sees all things through a prism of the deepest turquoise.
    Unlike yourself, and the other Shrieking Kippers!
  • Neil said:

    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Neil said:


    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Even that?! The humanity! Wont someone please think of the ceramic flowers!
    Having recently defended James McClean's decision not to wear a poppy, I'm not getting into any more rows about poppies.

    It was like a discussion about AV on steroids.
    I see the traitorous pig dog is out of this Friday's match against the country that nurtured and schooled him as he has a hamstring injury - karma.

    He's saving himself for the finals in France, Harry. We'll send you a postcard.

    Did you see last night, I'm mulling a double on Ireland winning the six nations and World Cup.
    I hope you hold out for some good odds.
    I looked last night, and saw I had already backed Ireland for the world cup last year at 22/1
    Won't that bet be a related contingency? I am not sure that bookies will allow a double on that at single odds
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Good morning, everyone.

    Ah, FIFA. The organisation that makes the way F1 is run look good.

    England's been criticised. Not sure if it's because we pointed out a summer tournament in 50C might not be very clever.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/30031405

    England and Australia apparently cess-pits of corruption. Russia and Qatar found to be pure as the driven snow.

    That's actually so ridiculous it's hilarious. My mind is boggled.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    On topic, this Ashcroft poll is going to be so crucial.

    If he gets the UKIP majority about right, then the next May question/result will be assumed to be correct.

    Another slice of the wacky wisdom of TSE, who sees all things through a prism of the deepest turquoise.
    Unlike yourself, and the other Shrieking Kippers!
    Come now, Mr Watcher; you know I don't shriek, I'm the epitome of high class discussion.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    weejonnie said:

    TGOHF said:

    as predicted

    Gary Robertson @BBCGaryR · 17m 17 minutes ago
    Sussex Police investigating a number of complaints about an effigy of Alex Salmond @ Lewes bonfire event say "no criminal offence occurred."

    Something the left don't understand. Anything they don't like is NOT by definition criminal. And if the actions annoy the left then so much the better.

    Hmmmm

    Labour MPs cheered jokes about killing the Royal Family and lynching a Tory Cabinet minister at a tasteless Remembrance Sunday event, it emerged last night

    The ‘anti-war comedy night’ even featured remarks mocking the ceramic poppies at the Tower of London.

    Among those attending the event at a club in Covent Garden were former shadow minister Diane Abbott and Left-wing MP Jeremy Corbyn.

    They heard another Left-winger, John McDonnell give a speech joking about Employment Minister Esther McVey being lynched.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2832286/Labour-MPs-cheered-jokes-lynching-Tory-minister-killing-royal-sick-alternative-poppy-day-comedy-night.html

    A rather pleasing conjunction of posts.
    divvie are you too much of a divvy to see the difference ?

    The 37%'ers wanted bonfire revellers arrested and the dear leaders image protected by law

    The Mail suggests you may not want to vote for a bunch of hypocrites.

    Bring your own chips to the bonfire next November - there is one on each shoulder.
    Do you want a single or a return for the outrage bus?
    No thanks - I laughed and laughed at both stories - your fellow neverendum numpties weren't quite so mellow.
    Red-face reactionary dressed in 'The' Rangers onesie, laughing gormlessly at a computer screen.

    An image to treasure.

    Poor trolling effort divs - malcy is far superior in this.
This discussion has been closed.