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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Roch
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls
Much has been written in recent months about prompting in voting intention polls. UKIP has argued strongly that it should be treated on the same basis as the traditional three main parties and that those polls that don’t do this are understating its position.
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I still think Reckless will win, but this is a pretty poor piece of voter prompting.
Lord Ashcroft was 17% out at Heywood and Middleton. I'm looking for a performance within 3% this time out or I will continue to hold his polls at arms length.
Men would vote to leave the EU, women would vote to stay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland
UKIP (OA)
Positive discrimination for women in employment: +9 (+21)
Positive discrimination for ethnic minorities in employment: -29 (+6)
Right of same sex couples to marry: -12 (+30)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/dil2gusjn0/RedBoxResults_141111_political_issues_website.pdf
Maybe it's because they are around twice as likely to have first had sex at 15 or under?
http://order-order.com/2014/10/10/ashcroft-polls-margin-of-error-was-17/
He issued a rather plaintive defence of his waywardness, which didn't really address the issue:
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/10/lord-ashcroft-the-by-election-that-shows-why-polls-are-not-predictions.html
At the moment he is half-way between a proper polling organisation and voodoo pollster.
@simonsketch: Ed will say we are a "deeply unequal, deeply unfair, deeply unjust country". Why does he say he loves Britain, he doesn't like us at all!
@simonsketch: And if we're so unfair, unequal and unjust, why are the poor of Europe flocking here in their millions to work?
I can't see any problems at all with this strategy. We want more Ed. All Ed, all the time...
Even after all these years I vividly remember having to surreptitiously look at the letters on the kitchen table the next morning to find out what her name was and the address of the house.
The most important setence from the thread header is:Maybe there are so many implicit biases in the polling that one has to ask a biased question in order to reach an accurate response?
He's a really nice guy and it was real pleasure seeing him
Even the 60+ demographic were evenly split (all others heavily in favour)
(My recall for that era says no it wasn’t as easy as it appears to be now. Anecdotes available if required!?
An unfortunate choice of photo by the Beeb– looks like someone stole his banana...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
In previous Tory held by elections, Ashcroft has been nearer to the mark than Survation.
I think, like most, I expect UKIP to win reasonably well in Rochester but I wouldn't be greatly surprised to see a lead a fair bit smaller than the polls suggest.
The winning party in the last three by-elections has under-performed the pre-election polls.
What first attracted you to billionaire Lord Ashcroft?
Net support:
Lab: +32
LibD: +2
Con: -12
UKIP: -29 (60+: -9)
"What first attracted you to the devilish handsome rich nobleman ?"
Titters ....
I suspect if you explained to voters that "positive" discrimination involves actively (and negatively) discriminating against others that don't share the same gender or racial characteristics, often through the use of quotas, then you'd probably get a very different response.
Quite a few respondents may think it simply means giving fair and due consideration to underrepresented groups, with mentoring and support, to assist them in fully participating in the employment marketplace.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30025957
This Is What Happens When Little Boys Believe That They Can Do Absolutely Anything...
What's your latest projection for Ukip vote share and seat number at the general election?
The most interesting part of the Ashcroft poll was of course the part indicating that the tories may well recover the seat in May. That is a curious effect. No doubt it is a lack of imagination on my part but I really can't see circumstances in which I would vote differently in a by election and then less than 6 months later. I can imagine turnout being different but why would people change their vote when being asked the same question? Maybe its just me.
Doesn't strike me as particularly socially conservative!
The UKIP plan is to get elected and then work the constituency like the LibDems. This has worked for Simon Hughes in Bermondsey, for instance. This will be UKIP's chance to put it into action.
The only caveat I have is that Reckless' voters do not fill the usual UKIP profile, the reason I normally give for the vote not "going home" at the GE.
.................................
BTW .... Was your house move successful?
If it weren't for UKIP, it's not far off the best of all worlds for the Conservatives: Labour do all the hard work to undermine what little credibility their leader has left, meanwhile making their party look divided, but do precisely nothing about it.
Miliband stays: terminally damaged, with an apathetic shadow cabinet and a highly demoralised party.
Cameron hasn't lifted a finger.
Edit: just looked at the Survation/Unite poll and that mentions Mark Reckless in the second question
Net support:
Lab: +39
UKIP: +9
LibD: +8
Con: +2
It's only when you get to ethnic minorities and gays that they discover their "social conservatism".......
May I ask .... two or four oven? .... and why Northampton?
What will be the reaction to Ed's "I'm a credible PM really" fightback speech?
A. Clear success, great speech, polls recover.
B. Clear flop, doesn't speak human, polling gets even worse.
C. Meh. Nothing changes.
Seems about correct.
It is quite brave of him to test that theory when Labour are already lower (mainly thanks to him of course).
It may just be me but is another vacuous soundbite like the zero zero economy really the way to go? The day after real wages finally started rising again. In a country where an ever increasing share of the tax burden is borne by the highest paid? Is this latest critique going to have a longer shelf life than the squeezed middle? He really is risking simply keeping the story going with another banal speech made up of sociological terminology which people struggle to ascribe meaning to.
The post-referendum SNP surge seems to have knocked the LDs from 5/6% to 3/4%. There are 11 LD MPs representing Scottish constituencies.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland
1. Turnout at general elections is generally higher than at a by-election. It's perfectly possible that the poll is picking up a reluctance of Tory loyalists to bother to turn out for a by-election less than six months before the general election, so that UKIP can win the former on differential turnout but lose the latter as reluctant voters turn out to loyally put their cross beside the name of David Cameron's representative in Rochester & Strood.
2. The principal difference between the two sets of results did not appear to be UKIP voters switching to the Tories for the general election, but UKIP voters being more likely to say that they "didn't know" which way they would vote at the general election. Perhaps there are voters who are happy to vote UKIP in a by-election, but are waiting to see how Farage does in the debates before making up their minds for the general election?
3. There may be a chunk of voters who are partially swayed by the vote Farage get Miliband message**. Obviously Miliband cannot become Prime Minister following the Rochester & Strood by-election, but it's a possibility at the general election, so people may change their vote accordingly.
** Logically, Rochester & Strood is now irrelevant to the question of whether Miliband becomes Prime Minister, because the local MP will be either Conservative or UKIP - Labour have lost too many votes to UKIP to have any chance of coming up through the middle - but the argument may still have traction, and affect voting intention for the general election.
tofor vested interests...@tnewtondunn: EXCL: Red Ed's safe seat "stitch-up" for Sir Keir Starmer revolt http://t.co/amtUMbEycL
"I couldn't beat Brown, but lost to Ed Miliband." A fine political epitaph.
I currently live in a country with a very different culture from our own. I do my best to rub along, and go with the flow of their culture, it's their country, I respect how the want to run it. When in Rome... I think quite a lot of people, especially the more socially conservative, wish people coming to our country would do us the respect of doing the same,
The new slogan sounds straight out of Axelrod's consultancy. This kind of stuff managed to keep Obama in place for second term.
;-0
a) Would you like, at minimal cost to yourself, to kick the government where it hurts?
b) Who do you think should be Prime Minister: David Cameron or Ed Miliband?
You'll no doubt be adding to the yellow peril insurgency in Northampton North constituency.
Mrs JackW has always been fond of a small appetizer before a more substantial main course.
There've been four polls conducted for R&S. These do span over a month so obviously there can be real movements in opinion in that time and differences in numbers aren't necessarily due to methodology or sample composition.
Even so, Survation on 04/10/14 asked "Which party do you think you are most likely to vote for in this by-election in Rochester & Strood?" and ended with a UKIP lead of 9%.
Then, on 17-21 Oct, the Comres poll asked "As you may have heard, there will be a by-election on 20th November to elect a Member of Parliament for your local constituency of Rochester and Strood ..." in Q2 and "And in the by-election on 20th November, do you think you will vote for the ..." in Q3, before listing the parties. UKIP had a lead of 13%.
Survation then conducted a second survey, with the first question after establishing the 2010 vote baseline being introduced by "Following the move of your MP, Mark Reckless to UKIP, there will be a by-election in your Rochester and Strood constituency on the 20th November to elect a new MP for your area ..." before asking the VI question: "Which party's candidate are you most likely to vote for in the by-election?" UKIP had a 15% lead.
So the 12% UKIP lead by Ashcroft is very much in line with what's already been found, and slightly less than the ComRes poll which didn't name-check any candidate or party.
Now, as I've said, it may be that there's been a real move in opinion away from Reckless during the campaign that is being masked by an equal and opposite effect produced by name-checking him in the question. In this case, though, I'd be inclined to assume the simple explanation is the right one, namely that opinion hasn't much shifted and he's on course to hold his seat by low double-figures.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w
If he's that soft he should step down for his own good.
Sad story, but it amused me that she only discovered it when she was contacted by a friend of her mother's who said he has "seen the advert while surfing the web"
Yeah. Right. We believe you. Move along here. Nothing to see.