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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: November 6th 2014

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  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    Young kid in QT audience about Ed Miliband

    "You can't polish a turd"

    Unkind of them. Honestly I don't see what is so bad about Ed M beyond being, apart from the occasional eye catching pronouncement, bland even by our political class' standards. Granted, not being able to inspire may be enough to rile up many in his own ranks getting concerned, but I am surprised at the level of disdain the polling shows for him.
    It is IDS syndrome.

    He's someone who can't even inspire his own side, so the rest of the country won't back him either.
    The man comes across badly in so many ways. His statements are dull and unoriginal. His interviews are repetitive and bland. His voice is nasally and whiny. He's slightly odd looking. And his body language just seems so weak and lacking in authority. I'm not surprised though: if you see that photo of him in the feminist t-shirt he looks like he's never done any exercise in his life. I doubt he could even do a press-up.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Depends on who they select as his replacement.

    Do Labour have any rules against being led from the Lords?

    Come on Neil, time to take your party back...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    After the GOP's midterms win and Senate gain, some interesting figures for the ‘six year itch’ in the postwar period, showing the number of seats lost in Congress by the President’s party in the sixth year of a Presidential term (I have also added LBJ in 1966 and Ford in 1974 is included too).
    1950 Truman’s Democrats S-5 H-28
    1958 Eisenhower’s Republicans S-13 H-48
    1966 Johnson’s Democrats S-3 H-47
    1974 Ford’s Republicans S-4 H-48
    1986 Reagan’s Republicans S-8 H-5
    1998 Clinton’s Democrats S0 H+5
    2006 Bush W’s Republicans S-6 H-30
    2014 Obama's Democrats S-7 H-13
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_year_itch
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: My normally very helpful LAB inside source has gone quiet on me. Interesting

    @MShapland: #Milicrisis not over yet - all sorts going on behind the scenes - failing to wield the knife is what did for Labour in 2010

    Bloody hell has [moderated] gone silent.

    Be afraid Ed, be very afraid.
    Oh no! Not [moderated]!
    Really? I never realised it was [moderated]. To think that all these years I believed it was [moderated]?

    BTW, had a nice coffee in Paris with my HRC team contact. Very very depressed after this week. Really critical of Obama, particularly on foreign policy. Harshest I've ever heard him be.

    Thinks Jeb Bush is serious and has a decent chance, especially once his kids get out there and get more in the public eye. Also a fan of Rand Paul - disagrees on virtually everything, but likes the fact that he is trying to solve some of the US's more deep-seated problems.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    @Flightpath

    Yes Harold Wood Hospital was closed in 2006 and is going to be used to house Newham overspill, as are the new flats at Queens, and the land at St Georges in Hornchurch.

    You are right, £260m was spent building Queens Hospital wto replace Oldchurch.. money well spent you think?

    "The trust running Queen’s Hospital has been put into special measures after a watchdog issued a damning report exposing unsafe A&Es, understaffing, long waiting times and poor planning."

    http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/health/queen_s_hospital_trust_put_into_special_measures_after_damning_cqc_report_1_3124079

    'Boy with broken arm uses floor for bed at busy Queen’s Hospital

    Ms Ahmed added: “He was treated like he was an animal.”'

    http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/health/pictured_boy_with_broken_arm_uses_floor_for_bed_at_busy_queen_s_hospital_1_3835970

    So the Hospitals are already shocking, and in a mess, there will be fewer of them soon, as King Georges A&E is closing and more people are being housed on the sites of the old ones, despite pleas from local people that Boris chose to ignore

    http://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/boris_snub_is_such_an_insult_claims_harold_wood_residents_1_778766

    My mates wife gave birth in Queens last week, and came home rather than stay the night in what she described as a prison... this was her 3rd child. When she first gave birth at Queens they were using the disabled bogs to deliver children as they were so overcrowded

    You can like or not like the new hospital and how Labour built it, but the fact that 2 hospitals closed and facilities provided in a new building elsewhere is not something of itself to be critical of. You are trying to roll all that up into some wider conspiracy.
    For some reason you object to new houses being built. Thats your problem - amongst a lot of others.
    But I'm not saying it's a conspiracy am I? It's just not what the people want and it's not working

    As for two hospital closing and being rolled into a new one elsewhere that is Completely wrong. Harold wood and oldchurch were closed and a new one built on the oldchurch site. So we lost one hospital and another was rebuilt

    And it's shit

    New houses are being built to house people from newham where half the population don't speak English at home.. These people are being forced out if East London because the govt don't want them in the fancy new parts of London they are spending money on

    Ukip will win hx and Upminster on the back of this
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    OGH Asked in an earlier thread why we don't have figures for England in the polls, of course if you look at yougov and most other polls they have figures for the South, London, the North and Midlands (+Wales) so you can work it out from there
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    Interesting that Lewes did not burn Salmond in effigy in the end, but did burn Putin, look for some Russian subs off the Sussex coast too
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    In this piece I'm reading in the Times, Lab MPs think there's two things that will happen after the new year and continue to the election, which will make their position worse

    1) Some 2010 LD to Lab switchers will go back to the LDs or go to the Greens

    2) Some 2010 Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Blues

    So they think a polling situation of Con 35, Lab 27 isn't out of the question

    Which would be a bigger Tory lead in 2015 than in 2010.

    That has been my exact prediction for a while. Tory majority on a lower share than they got in 2010.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    ScottP But as long as UKIP eat into the Tories vote too that should not be quite as damaging for Labour. Miliband will stay, Cooper, Burnham and Umunna are quite happy to let him lose the election, so they can start afresh next year
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    edited November 2014
    Scott_P said:

    It’s here at last. The long spasm of pointless division in the parliamentary Labour party. Senior sources (never junior ones) are out in force, enjoying the malicious freedom of anonymity. Something must be done
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/thunderer/article4260052.ece
    You really have mastered typing with one hand.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited November 2014
    It is understood that Mr Miliband decided to confront the leadership issue publicly because he feared allies of Gordon Brown were organising a concerted attempt to remove him. But the high-risk strategy appeared to backfire as MPs said Mr Miliband had only deepened the sense of crisis around his leadership.

    “Going on television to talk about it was mad. It makes it look even worse than it is,” one frontbencher said. “I started off thinking this was the usual grumbling, but now it looks more serious than that.”
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11215132/Ed-Miliband-pleads-with-Labours-plotters-to-back-his-leadership.html
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    If Labour figures are starting to worry about their own seats, have they got internal polling or something that is making them believe that, or are they just going through their own version of the regular Tory panics we've seen over the past 4 years, when large numbers lose their heads over a sustained difficult period. One good thing about being down in the polls several years ago I guess is the Tories have had time to acclimate to such numbers without panicking, whether they should be or not.

    The Scottish polling currently takes it to a whole new level and that likely will have the biggest Labour beast remaining mighty disturbed (even though his own seat would likely survive). If Brown (whose foot soldiers are largely still in place) is moving against Miliband now then this could be serious for Miliband...........
    In a way then the anti-Ed's must be thankful for the Scottish polling - it seems to be the only truly disastrous potentiality which has come forward which could act as a catalyst for change; merely having a poor conference and his personal polling not doing well would not manage that, but I guess the threat of losing Scotland could stir up more concrete trouble.

    If he fights this off, as seems to be the consensus, and can keep a lid on future eruptions of malcontentedness, perhaps it will make him look strong. Then again, people still give him crap for taking on his brother, which as a younger brother myself I had no issue with.
    If its a serious attempt to get rid of him then I can only believe it will have Brown's approval and likely the backing of the Unions (has Charlie Whelan been spotted at Unite lately?). If it has Brown's approval Miliband won't survive IMO.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,946
    HYUFD said:

    ScottP But as long as UKIP eat into the Tories vote too that should not be quite as damaging for Labour. Miliband will stay, Cooper, Burnham and Umunna are quite happy to let him lose the election, so they can start afresh next year

    Makes sense. The cuts will finally not be needed, hopefully, after 2020, so they can go into the next election promising to spend spend spend without worrying about being criticised for not being serious on the economy, and there's no way the Tories will get in after so long 'cutting'. They'd prefer to win now, I am sure, but they won't lose sleep over it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Cooper, Burnham and Umunna are quite happy to let him lose the election, so they can start afresh next year

    Except Cooper and Burnham are likely to be usurped by Umunna and Reeves. This might be their last shot...
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    I remember getting slapped down by Nick on here before the last GE when I was speculating about another attempted coup on Gordon Brown, the next day there was an orchestrated move to do just that. :)

    Scott_P said:

    @Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 32%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%

    How peaceful.
    So what's going on then Mr Palmer???, you always have your ear to the ground. I mean you told us nothing was going on when Brown was being plotted against, is that still the case with the hapless ED?
    Loved Jacob Rees-Mogg response when asked if he would defect to UKIP a week or two ago when doing one of his roving reports for C4 News. He said “Ken Clarke will convert to UKIP before I do"! :)

    kle4 said:

    it's like the last 9 years never existed.... he could be an ex Labour Minister.

    Douglas Carswell MP ✔ @DouglasCarswell
    Banking crisis revealed banks no good at banking. Anti politics storm revealing established political parties no good at politics.

    I'm beginning to turn on Carswell, primarily because while he did seem a more open, honest and direct MP before, he's beginning to get really smug sounding on things which, if he believes them now, why did he not 1 year ago, or 5 years ago, when he makes what he is now espousing seem so obvious. Finally waking up to the fact the party he was in was not for him, at least as it is currently led, which is fair enough, does not explain away the breadth of his comments or extent of his derision of old parties he was perfectly happy with before.
    Watch the Rees Mogg video today (on the Telegraph site) and listen to a Tory who could easily be UKIP and indeed some speculated it might defect, absolutely destroy Reckless whilst being ever so polite about it and which you could apply to Carswell too. Rees Mogg is one EU headbanger I love, in a manly way.
    It was great, his son was brilliant.

    I'm prepared to let Jake Rees-Mogg join our new Dry but not obsessed with the EU and Gays Tory Party.
    done - He can be the Ken Clarke figure in our party but in reverse.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,640
    Daily Mirror’s poll putting Conservatives on 27% (down 4 points on last month), Labour on 31% (no change), Lib Dems on 9% (+2) and UKIP on 24% (-1).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,946

    Daily Mirror’s poll putting Conservatives on 27% (down 4 points on last month), Labour on 31% (no change)).

    Ha. Seriously, no matter how bad things get for Labour, it seems like they will still end up as largest party in 2015. The Tories just cannot capitalize on the opportunities they have to climb out of the hole they are in. Labour had best be careful, if they keep offering the Tories opportunities, eventually even they will grab one.

    Night all.

  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Scott_P said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cooper, Burnham and Umunna are quite happy to let him lose the election, so they can start afresh next year

    Except Cooper and Burnham are likely to be usurped by Umunna and Reeves. This might be their last shot...
    Umunna will never stand for the leadership. He knows how much the press is sitting on about him. He is canny enough not to risk it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,666
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    If Labour figures are starting to worry about their own seats, have they got internal polling or something that is making them believe that, or are they just going through their own version of the regular Tory panics we've seen over the past 4 years, when large numbers lose their heads over a sustained difficult period. One good thing about being down in the polls several years ago I guess is the Tories have had time to acclimate to such numbers without panicking, whether they should be or not.

    The Scottish polling currently takes it to a whole new level and that likely will have the biggest Labour beast remaining mighty disturbed (even though his own seat would likely survive). If Brown (whose foot soldiers are largely still in place) is moving against Miliband now then this could be serious for Miliband...........
    In a way then the anti-Ed's must be thankful for the Scottish polling - it seems to be the only truly disastrous potentiality which has come forward which could act as a catalyst for change; merely having a poor conference and his personal polling not doing well would not manage that, but I guess the threat of losing Scotland could stir up more concrete trouble.

    If he fights this off, as seems to be the consensus, and can keep a lid on future eruptions of malcontentedness, perhaps it will make him look strong. Then again, people still give him crap for taking on his brother, which as a younger brother myself I had no issue with.
    My wife - who voted Lab in 97, 01 and 05 - loathes Ed, principally, I think - or at least originally - because of the taking-on-his-brother thing. Since then, she has hardly credited him as human. Mind you, she is an oldest sibling. Personally, I'm a only child so have less feeling for how these things work.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ScotlandTonight: .@johnmcternan says: “There's not a lot to worry about - Labour's had a poll lead for 4 years & Ed Miliband has popular policies” #scotnight
  • Moses_ said:

    Scott_P said:

    Newsnight quoting un-named Labour figure. "We elected someone out of his depth. We can't go into the New Year like this"

    From what I can remember they didn't elect him Len appointed him to the gasps of the conference attendees.

    And I'll never forget the look on the faces of both Milibands: David grinning like a Cheshire cat (from shock I should think); Ed with his glazed 'Oh god what have I done' expression of sheer horror.
  • In this piece I'm reading in the Times, Lab MPs think there's two things that will happen after the new year and continue to the election, which will make their position worse

    1) Some 2010 LD to Lab switchers will go back to the LDs or go to the Greens

    2) Some 2010 Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Blues

    So they think a polling situation of Con 35, Lab 27 isn't out of the question

    Which would be a bigger Tory lead in 2015 than in 2010.

    I thought these people were supposed to know about politics.

    They can't really be surprised, can they? I mean, really?

    Politics is full of surprises, but, as the election comes into focus, a drift away from Labour, and an increasing realisation amongst voters that Ed M would be a disaster as PM, are not amongst them.
  • I love survation even more now.

    They've got a poll that will stop Lab ditching Ed.

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-deflects-labour-leadership-4583655
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Scott_P said:

    @ScotlandTonight: .@johnmcternan says: “There's not a lot to worry about - Labour's had a poll lead for 4 years & Ed Miliband has popular policies” #scotnight

    Denial is a dangerous thing
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Daily Mirror’s poll putting Conservatives on 27% (down 4 points on last month), Labour on 31% (no change), Lib Dems on 9% (+2) and UKIP on 24% (-1).

    What poll is this?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2014
    Sean_F said:

    So, if Milliband is forced out, does it help or hinder Labour?

    The Australians regularly chop and change leaders.

    It would have helped to get rid of him until recently, but now it's so close to the election it'll look like panic. There are less than 22 weeks to go until the start of the election campaign.
  • Priceless...


    Patrick O'Flynn retweeted
    Michael Heaver@Michael_Heaver · 47m 47 minutes ago
    Lots of talk and support for Nigel Farage/UKIP, shame there's no UKIP panellist to add to the debate! #bbcqt


    10m Anna Turley @annaturley
    Oh and there's the Redcar UKIP candidate! So 3 UKIP parliamentary candidates in the audience and invited to speak! @labourpress #bbcqt
    Retweeted by Labour Press Team


    12m Martin Shapland @MShapland
    That #UKIP PPC - Ted Strike - who got a free speech on #bbcqt tonight believes that Gay Marriage caused the flooding in the Spring
    Retweeted by Mark Pack
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,429

    In this piece I'm reading in the Times, Lab MPs think there's two things that will happen after the new year and continue to the election, which will make their position worse

    1) Some 2010 LD to Lab switchers will go back to the LDs or go to the Greens

    2) Some 2010 Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Blues

    So they think a polling situation of Con 35, Lab 27 isn't out of the question

    Which would be a bigger Tory lead in 2015 than in 2010.

    I thought these people were supposed to know about politics.

    They can't really be surprised, can they? I mean, really?

    Politics is full of surprises, but, as the election comes into focus, a drift away from Labour, and an increasing realisation amongst voters that Ed M would be a disaster as PM, are not amongst them.
    More of the Labour Party should have been reading pb.com these past four years...

    Then they wouldn't have been quite so surprised that Ed is crap.

  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    @johnmcternan says: nothing wrong in a UKIP area that a good dose of immigration wont fix.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,385
    edited November 2014

    In this piece I'm reading in the Times, Lab MPs think there's two things that will happen after the new year and continue to the election, which will make their position worse

    1) Some 2010 LD to Lab switchers will go back to the LDs or go to the Greens

    2) Some 2010 Con to UKIP switchers will go back to the Blues

    So they think a polling situation of Con 35, Lab 27 isn't out of the question

    Which would be a bigger Tory lead in 2015 than in 2010.

    I thought these people were supposed to know about politics.

    They can't really be surprised, can they? I mean, really?

    Politics is full of surprises, but, as the election comes into focus, a drift away from Labour, and an increasing realisation amongst voters that Ed M would be a disaster as PM, are not amongst them.
    More of the Labour Party should have been reading pb.com these past four years...

    Then they wouldn't have been quite so surprised that Ed is crap.

    We also warned them about making Gordon Brown leader.

    The Labour Party, Always wrong, never learn
  • Diane Abbott = pants on fire.
  • Good to hear that unemployment is so low in Northants.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-29938420
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,988
    Twenty Seven Percent!!! 3 points ahead of the Kippers. So much for Dave's core vote strategy - maybe he should go back to "Vote Blue, Go Green" to dupe a few disgruntled LibDems.

    And only two weeks before the Tory "kitchen sink" falls down its own plughole in Rochester.

    Will Mr Cameron be gone by Christmas?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,429
    Cooper and Burnham and whoever else can conspire and agree among themselves all they like.

    But Len still pays the bills, so still calls the shots.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?
  • isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    That would be a seismic shift in British politics
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    Charles Hillary comfortably beats Paul and Bush even more in head to head polls. She is not Obama. Jeb will probably not run and his handed the mantle to his half Hispanic son George P Bush who won the Texas Land Cssioner contest on Tuesday, look for him to be running for president in about a decade
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014
    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    kle4 Even Osborne has said austerity will be over by 2018, and with the economy hopefully still growing people will be ready for some Labour goodies again for the public services
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto Conservative Party candidates.
    Given the revelations that have come out of the EU's mission in Kosovo, it is crazy we are giving justice powers over the UK away to such a corrupt organisation.
  • isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
  • PAW said:

    @johnmcternan says: nothing wrong in a UKIP area that a good dose of immigration wont fix.

    McTernan was Harman's adviser before she got sacked in1998
    He was SPAD to Henry McLeish until Mcleish resigned over a scandal in 2001
    He was Director of Political Operations for Blair when Brown ousted Blair
    He ran SLAB's 2007 Scottish Election campaign that saw them kicked out
    He was SPAD to Des Browne as Scottish Secretary until he was sacked
    He was Jim Murphy's SPAD until Labour lost the 2010 election
    He was Julia Gullard's Comms Director before she was thrown out by her party

    McTernan seems to be the kiss of death in regard to everything political he's involved in.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    That would be a seismic shift in British politics
    or an outlier. One or the other.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Rugby Bilton Con hold Labour fall to 4th

    Con 668 UKIP 325 Lib Dem 280 Lab 212 Ind 60 Green 37 TUSC 10

    Cornwall reported as Con gain from Lab but no figures
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,464
    ScottP They will all be candidates next year if Labour lose I would imagine

    OxfordSimon What is so damaging, he is a Labour frontbencher, telegenic and seen as the 'British Obama'. If it is drugs Obama took them too, did not stop him winning!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    You mean the one that grossly misrepresented the implications of the EAW? No didn't miss it. Took it with the pinch of salt that all such survey questions like that deserve.
  • A plan to demand control of key government departments is being drawn up by the Liberal Democrats should the party form another coalition.

    Senior figures in the party want to “learn lessons” from the coalition agreement hammered out with the Conservatives in 2010 by demanding three “Lib Dem only” departments for the party to run.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4260114.ece
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited November 2014
    It is very worrying that Ed M maybe replaced.


    I already replaced my avatar a few weeks ago after Lamont went.
    If Ed goes I will have to choose his replacement carefully.
  • Yeah I'd be happy with the Lib Dems running three departments on their own.

    Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland seems apt.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891

    A plan to demand control of key government departments is being drawn up by the Liberal Democrats should the party form another coalition.

    Senior figures in the party want to “learn lessons” from the coalition agreement hammered out with the Conservatives in 2010 by demanding three “Lib Dem only” departments for the party to run.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4260114.ece

    So the Tories get the rest? Can we divide Defra into three ministries for them?
  • Diane Abbott = awful
  • isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited November 2014

    A plan to demand control of key government departments is being drawn up by the Liberal Democrats should the party form another coalition.

    Senior figures in the party want to “learn lessons” from the coalition agreement hammered out with the Conservatives in 2010 by demanding three “Lib Dem only” departments for the party to run.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4260114.ece

    Ladbrokes higher/lower LD seats is currently set at 26.5.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    That would be a seismic shift in British politics
    or an outlier. One or the other.
    Offering odds on crossover?
  • Rugby Bilton Con hold Labour fall to 4th

    Con 668 UKIP 325 Lib Dem 280 Lab 212 Ind 60 Green 37 TUSC 10

    Cornwall reported as Con gain from Lab but no figures

    Bad news for us "keep Ed" supporters.
  • A plan to demand control of key government departments is being drawn up by the Liberal Democrats should the party form another coalition.

    Senior figures in the party want to “learn lessons” from the coalition agreement hammered out with the Conservatives in 2010 by demanding three “Lib Dem only” departments for the party to run.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4260114.ece

    Vote Conservative Get Libdem?

    DCMS, Wales & Scotland?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,385
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    You mean the one that grossly misrepresented the implications of the EAW? No didn't miss it. Took it with the pinch of salt that all such survey questions like that deserve.
    It was part of the same poll that brought the Kippers to climax that had leaving the EU ahead.

    But keep on ignoring the bits of the polling you don't like.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    That would be a seismic shift in British politics
    or an outlier. One or the other.
    Offering odds on crossover?
    Just commenting on whether it would be a seismic shift or not ;)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Mevagissey result Con 348 UKIP 281 Lab 204 Lib Dem 197 Green 50

    Con and LD vote shares up , others down
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Not sure if this has been spotted already, but YouGov are currently polling to see how people would vote with a range of different Labour leaders...

    Might prompt some action if a clear improvement is seen with one or more candidates.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    That would be a seismic shift in British politics
    or an outlier. One or the other.
    Offering odds on crossover?
    Just commenting on whether it would be a seismic shift or not ;)
    If you give me the tie I'll offer you evens
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
    Then you must realise how dumb it is for the Conservatives to give current-Con supporters a reason to switch UKIP.

    Somewhere between a quarter and a third of current-Con supporters have said they would consider switching to UKIP.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842

    A plan to demand control of key government departments is being drawn up by the Liberal Democrats should the party form another coalition.

    Senior figures in the party want to “learn lessons” from the coalition agreement hammered out with the Conservatives in 2010 by demanding three “Lib Dem only” departments for the party to run.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4260114.ece

    Vote Conservative Get Libdem?

    DCMS, Wales & Scotland?
    They can demand all they like, they won't get!
  • From the times

    One plan being “kicked around internally” at the top of the party would see the Lib Dems demand total control of the Department for Transport, the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.
  • Charles said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MSmithsonPB: My normally very helpful LAB inside source has gone quiet on me. Interesting

    @MShapland: #Milicrisis not over yet - all sorts going on behind the scenes - failing to wield the knife is what did for Labour in 2010

    Bloody hell has [moderated] gone silent.

    Be afraid Ed, be very afraid.
    Oh no! Not [moderated]!
    Really? I never realised it was [moderated]. To think that all these years I believed it was [moderated]?

    BTW, had a nice coffee in Paris with my HRC team contact. Very very depressed after this week. Really critical of Obama, particularly on foreign policy. Harshest I've ever heard him be.

    Thinks Jeb Bush is serious and has a decent chance, especially once his kids get out there and get more in the public eye. Also a fan of Rand Paul - disagrees on virtually everything, but likes the fact that he is trying to solve some of the US's more deep-seated problems.
    Rand Paul could change the economic future of the USA for the better, if only the voters saw sense. Alas pork barrel politics will stop that.
  • NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    A plan to demand control of key government departments is being drawn up by the Liberal Democrats should the party form another coalition.

    Senior figures in the party want to “learn lessons” from the coalition agreement hammered out with the Conservatives in 2010 by demanding three “Lib Dem only” departments for the party to run.

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4260114.ece

    Yeah, great idea LibDems. I mean, that's what used to happen in German and Italian coalitions.

    Happen in that Yoorup you're so so fond of.

    And you'd think you'd be ready for a coalition Government, as that would be the only way you'd get into Government.

    You should have thought of all this 5 years ago.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    edited November 2014

    Mevagissey result Con 348 UKIP 281 Lab 204 Lib Dem 197 Green 50

    Con and LD vote shares up , others down

    So Tories leap from third place to a comfortable win and Labour drop to a very poor third.

    I think I can live with that (and the kippers losing ground is but icing on the cake). Fair enough for the LDs to be a modestly improving fourth - I won't begrudge them that.
  • isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
    Then you must realise how dumb it is for the Conservatives to give current-Con supporters a reason to switch UKIP.

    Somewhere between a quarter and a third of current-Con supporters have said they would consider switching to UKIP.
    The Tories championing a policy that public backing will cost them votes.

    It's a view I suppose.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    edited November 2014

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    You mean the one that grossly misrepresented the implications of the EAW? No didn't miss it. Took it with the pinch of salt that all such survey questions like that deserve.
    It was part of the same poll that brought the Kippers to climax that leaving the EU ahead.

    But keep on ignoring the bits of the polling you don't like.
    Its not a case of whether I like it or not I don't take any notice of any of these specific issue questions because the questioning is never satisfactory and by changing a few words you can get a completely opposite result.

    It was Yougov (who wrote that EAW question I believe) who proved that for me back when 42 day detention was the main issue. Within a couple of weeks of each other Liberty and the Telegraph both used Yougov to do a poll on it. The Liberty poll came out 65/35 against 42 day detention as they no doubt wanted and the Telegraph who was a cheerleader for the legislation, their poll came out 65/35 for 42 day detention. The difference was the way the question was constructed.

    You see its not whether you or I like the result that matters. Its whether the sponsor of the poll likes it.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
    Then you must realise how dumb it is for the Conservatives to give current-Con supporters a reason to switch UKIP.

    Somewhere between a quarter and a third of current-Con supporters have said they would consider switching to UKIP.
    The Tories championing a policy that public backing will cost them votes.

    It's a view I suppose.
    Good on yer mate. I'm sure Naughty Neil won't mind but you MUST join us pbTories for a few cocktails before the main event at DDs. We can be resplendently vituperative at all ghastly treacherous piglet-doggies.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
    Then you must realise how dumb it is for the Conservatives to give current-Con supporters a reason to switch UKIP.

    Somewhere between a quarter and a third of current-Con supporters have said they would consider switching to UKIP.
    The Tories championing a policy that public backing will cost them votes.

    It's a view I suppose.
    Do 100% of current-Con supporters back this policy?

    Labour and the LDs will be backing it, so the Conservatives position is unlikely to bring them new supporters.
  • JohnO said:

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
    Then you must realise how dumb it is for the Conservatives to give current-Con supporters a reason to switch UKIP.

    Somewhere between a quarter and a third of current-Con supporters have said they would consider switching to UKIP.
    The Tories championing a policy that public backing will cost them votes.

    It's a view I suppose.
    Good on yer mate. I'm sure Naughty Neil won't mind but you MUST join us pbTories for a few cocktails before the main event at DDs. We can be resplendently vituperative at all ghastly treacherous piglet-doggies.
    I'd love to attend.

    I have some gossip to share.

    When and where ?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    edited November 2014

    JohnO said:

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
    Then you must realise how dumb it is for the Conservatives to give current-Con supporters a reason to switch UKIP.

    Somewhere between a quarter and a third of current-Con supporters have said they would consider switching to UKIP.
    The Tories championing a policy that public backing will cost them votes.

    It's a view I suppose.
    Good on yer mate. I'm sure Naughty Neil won't mind but you MUST join us pbTories for a few cocktails before the main event at DDs. We can be resplendently vituperative at all ghastly treacherous piglet-doggies.
    I'd love to attend.

    I have some gossip to share.

    When and where ?
    Not arranged yet (that's Neil's job!) but send me an e-mail at john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk and I'll let you know the details!
  • JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    isam said:

    Who wants to bet on crossover between Ukip and Tories in a poll before the GE?

    The European Arrest Warrant vote is scheduled for Monday. The Cameroons seem to be determined to project a slavishly pro-EU image onto the Conservative Party.
    Did you miss the poll that showed the public backed Dave on that ?
    No. Did you miss the 3 point difference in the Con/UKIP numbers in tonight's Survation poll?
    No. I posted it below.
    Then you must realise how dumb it is for the Conservatives to give current-Con supporters a reason to switch UKIP.

    Somewhere between a quarter and a third of current-Con supporters have said they would consider switching to UKIP.
    The Tories championing a policy that public backing will cost them votes.

    It's a view I suppose.
    Good on yer mate. I'm sure Naughty Neil won't mind but you MUST join us pbTories for a few cocktails before the main event at DDs. We can be resplendently vituperative at all ghastly treacherous piglet-doggies.
    I'd love to attend.

    I have some gossip to share.

    When and where ?
    Not arranged yet (that's Neil's job!) but send me an e-mail at john-oreilly@tiscali.co.uk and I'll send you details!
    Cheers will send you an email in the morning.

    Time for me to head to the land of nod.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    I was just wondering how many PMQ's there are between now and Christmas? Ed's position is so tenuous I think Cameron will need to roll over and play dead for quite a few of them to ensure Ed looks slightly good and remains for just long enough to make a change impossible ( if that points not already been reached of course)
    Remember save Ed !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Ed can go next May. Not before.

    It is most important to @Pulpstar's finances :O)
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @RobD

    'So the Tories get the rest? Can we divide Defra into three ministries for them?'

    No need Scotland,Wales & NI would give them three.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    JohnO said:

    ,,,result Con 348 UKIP 281...

    May 2015 result ?
  • " I don’t accept that this matter arises"

    jeebus. he really is crap!.

    No idea about his prospects, but wish he would learn to talk like a human
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    150 days to go to the start of the election campaign.
  • Mevagissey result Con 348 UKIP 281 Lab 204 Lib Dem 197 Green 50

    Con and LD vote shares up , others down

    Charming place is Mevagissey - family used to holiday there in the summer when I was a kid.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Simon Jenkins on good form:

    "I have on file cases of Britons recently imprisoned for crimes as relatively mild as abusive tweeting, poll-rigging, Boat Race obstructing, cathedral desecrating, job-application falsifying, expenses fiddling, urinatingon a war memorial, speeding-point switching, licence fee non-paying, and googling in court. Lord Baker, when home secretary, thought of rationing jail-crazy magistrates to a fixed number of cells each week, after filling which they would not be able to give custodial sentences."

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/06/addiction-criminalising-behaviour-private-responsibility
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited November 2014
    Under the current Labour party rules, Ed Miliband cannot now be voted out of the post of Labour Leader before the next GE. If Miliband goes now, it will be because he has chosen or been pressured into resigning as Labour Leader. And the only way that Ed Miliband can be forced into resigning is if his position as Leader becomes totally untenable. And that is only going to happen if certain key Shadow Cabinet Ministers threaten to resign, or do so citing a loss confidence in his Leadership with the implicit or public backing of a big Union donor like Unite.

    Daily Mail - Bonfire Night plot to oust Ed: Labour in crisis as MPs hold secret meeting and demand 'Axe leader or we'll lose election'

    "One Shadow Cabinet source said: ‘There are people around the leader still saying that all we need is to show the public the “real Ed” and everything will be all right. With respect, that idea has been tested to destruction – people have seen him and they don’t like him. The result is they’re not listening to us and we’ve only got six months to go.’"

    "The party leadership believes the plot will fizzle out – partly because the plotters lack organisation and partly because they are not agreed on an alternative candidate. However, several Shadow Cabinet members are thought to be pondering whether the benefits of ditching Mr Miliband outweigh the risks."

    "To the horror of Mr Miliband’s allies, the party’s main financial backer – the all-powerful ‘Red’ Len McCluskey, head of the union Unite, has said it would not matter if the Labour leader fell under a bus."

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Mevagissey result Con 348 UKIP 281 Lab 204 Lib Dem 197 Green 50

    Con and LD vote shares up , others down

    If this WAS an anti-UKIP tactic by Labour voters then I have other suggestions e.g. slitting their own throats. However it would make the marginals VERYinteresting - and despondent for Labour.
This discussion has been closed.