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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » October’s PB Poll Average: UKIP hit record high, Lab hit re

SystemSystem Posts: 11,700
edited November 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » October’s PB Poll Average: UKIP hit record high, Lab hit record low, Tories and LD trundle along the bottom

October was a month best forgotten by Ed Miliband, though reference to his memory may not aid that process.

Read the full story here


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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Get commenting you lot!
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    OK!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · Nov 2
    Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) update 2nd Nov. Lab 32.9%, Con 32.2, UKIP 16.3, LD 7.5

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/529018633784406016
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Sleazy broken Liblabcon on the slide.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    "October was a month best forgotten by Ed Miliband."


    Probably done already - He forgets a lot of things...!
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    TapestryTapestry Posts: 153
    Don't forget the possibility for independent candidates. The figures give you the story that all the main parties are flagging, and UKIP can't break through the vital 20%. The Greens are surging, and the Scottish Nationalists. People are in the mood for something different to the usual fare. If a local candidate stands on an issue such as fracking in one of the hundreds of constituencies that are threatened, he/she might surprise. Remember Newark where an independent took 5%, where UKIP's anticipated breakthrough was frustrated. The situation is far from stable, and independent candidates might find it a fertile one.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Viva UKIP!
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    As we get to the six months out marker, this period has been unusual because rather than seeing the expected "swingback" to the Tories from Labour, we are seeing only part of that - what I have dubbed "swingaway". So Labour is losing votes, as might have been expected - but to UKIP, not the Tories.

    The outcome of the next election will be greatly impacted by discovering whether we next see "asymmetric swingback" - former Tories returning from UKIP, former Labour not. I strongly suspect we will see that - and the failings of Ed Miliband will be a pivotal reason for that.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SeanT said:

    Can the fall continue?

    Of course. What is Labour's actual core vote, under Ed Miliband?

    They're losing Scots to the SNP, lefties to the Greens, white working classes to UKIP, Londoners with houses to the Tories, and intelligent people to blank despair.

    I see no reason Labour couldn't poll sub-Gordon-Brown-2010 in 2015.

    26%? 27%?

    Ah yes, but don't forget they've picked up some Lib Dems, the key to the entire election.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This table was neatly summed up in the New Statesman article about Labour's troubles:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/only-way-down-if-labour-can-t-inspire-itself-how-can-it-inspire-country

    “It’s a battle between a shit Labour Party and a shit Conservative Party,” said one Labour frontbencher, distilling the mood of resigned misery. “The winner will be the one that’s a little bit less shit.”
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    The_Last_Boy_ScoutThe_Last_Boy_Scout Posts: 174
    I was unaware that the Conservatives had also had their worst month this year. My impression was very much that they were on the up. Perhaps this forum gave me such an impression
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014
    Tapestry said:

    Don't forget the possibility for independent candidates. The figures give you the story that all the main parties are flagging, and UKIP can't break through the vital 20%. The Greens are surging, and the Scottish Nationalists. People are in the mood for something different to the usual fare. If a local candidate stands on an issue such as fracking in one of the hundreds of constituencies that are threatened, he/she might surprise. Remember Newark where an independent took 5%, where UKIP's anticipated breakthrough was frustrated. The situation is far from stable, and independent candidates might find it a fertile one.

    Hello, Tapestry. We were discussing the mechanism whereby the Twin Towers collapsed on the previous thread. Do you have a view? I know you hold views which may be considered 'unconventional' by some.
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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Tissue_Price said:

    SeanT said:

    Can the fall continue?

    Of course. What is Labour's actual core vote, under Ed Miliband?

    They're losing Scots to the SNP, lefties to the Greens, white working classes to UKIP, Londoners with houses to the Tories, and intelligent people to blank despair.

    I see no reason Labour couldn't poll sub-Gordon-Brown-2010 in 2015.

    26%? 27%?

    Ah yes, but don't forget they've picked up some Lib Dems, the key to the entire election.
    Fallon made leader in January, another 3-5% drops off the Labour score. It's a dream...
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    The_Last_Boy_Scout said:

    I was unaware that the Conservatives had also had their worst month this year. My impression was very much that they were on the up. Perhaps this forum gave me such an impression

    See my ELBOW chart up-thread! All three main parties are DOWN since August, only UKIP have gone UP!
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited November 2014
    MikeK said:

    Viva UKIP!

    Maybe. But I've just bought 2 (two) copies of "Marf's Mappa Mundi" cartoon just in case.
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MarqueeMark said:

    As we get to the six months out marker, this period has been unusual because rather than seeing the expected "swingback" to the Tories from Labour, we are seeing only part of that - what I have dubbed "swingaway". So Labour is losing votes, as might have been expected - but to UKIP, not the Tories.

    The outcome of the next election will be greatly impacted by discovering whether we next see "asymmetric swingback" - former Tories returning from UKIP, former Labour not. I strongly suspect we will see that - and the failings of Ed Miliband will be a pivotal reason for that.

    If con are hoping for Ukip returners, the dimmer toys-out-of-pram tory posters here might want to rethink their approach.

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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    So much for the Westminster wisdom that UKIP would go into terminal decline from the summer onwards.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    In other news.

    The town of Lewes in East Sussex will be torching a giant effigy of Alex Salmond, as part of their Guy Fawkes Night celebrations – And the Edenbridge Bonfire Society is planning to burn a 30 foot effigy of the outgoing President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso on 8 November.

    You got to just love those crazy little Englanders…!.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11211018/You-dont-frighten-me-Jean-Claude-Juncker-taunts-David-Cameron.html

    Come on Dave, turn the money off.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    SimonStClare said:

    In other news.

    The town of Lewes in East Sussex will be torching a giant effigy of Alex Salmond, as part of their Guy Fawkes Night celebrations – And the Edenbridge Bonfire Society is planning to burn a 30 foot effigy of the outgoing President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso on 8 November.

    You got to just love those crazy little Englanders…!.

    East Sussex County Council faced an immediate backlash on Twitter after tweeting a picture of Mr Salmond's effigy, complete with "Yes" and "45%" badges and the Loch Ness monster looking over his shoulder.

    One Twitter user responded: "Can you imagine the uproar amongst Better Together campaigners had Yes supporters burned an effigy of David Cameron?"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29921797
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    antifrank said:

    This table was neatly summed up in the New Statesman article about Labour's troubles:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/only-way-down-if-labour-can-t-inspire-itself-how-can-it-inspire-country

    “It’s a battle between a shit Labour Party and a shit Conservative Party,” said one Labour frontbencher, distilling the mood of resigned misery. “The winner will be the one that’s a little bit less shit.”

    Norman Tebbit said he thought the Conservatives and Labour were "engaged in a massive struggle to out-lose each other."
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    PAW said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11211018/You-dont-frighten-me-Jean-Claude-Juncker-taunts-David-Cameron.html

    Come on Dave, turn the money off.

    Stick it up your Juncker!
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/482688790105194496/photo/1
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Labourites are rallying the troops with the following image on Twitter:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1sXEq0CcAEC-Kc.png

    So in Ed's ten point plan, three involve taxing people more and five are just reversing or partially reversing things the Tories have done. It's hardly brave new thinking from Labour, is it? The only big one is building a million more homes, but given there's no detail to this policy at all, it's a laughable one.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    SeanT - He could sign a mutual defence deal with Putin, come on Dave, kick back.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SimonStClare said:

    In other news.

    The town of Lewes in East Sussex will be torching a giant effigy of Alex Salmond, as part of their Guy Fawkes Night celebrations – And the Edenbridge Bonfire Society is planning to burn a 30 foot effigy of the outgoing President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso on 8 November.

    You got to just love those crazy little Englanders…!.

    East Sussex County Council faced an immediate backlash on Twitter after tweeting a picture of Mr Salmond's effigy, complete with "Yes" and "45%" badges and the Loch Ness monster looking over his shoulder.

    One Twitter user responded: "Can you imagine the uproar amongst Better Together campaigners had Yes supporters burned an effigy of David Cameron?"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29921797
    That's the trouble with the 45%ers - no sense of humour...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @annemcelvoy: Tories in 2005 were only Opposition to improved poll ratings between conference season and next gen elec. via @hopisen and @georgeeaton .

    @JananGanesh: @annemcelvoy @hopisen @georgeeaton Lynton Crosby.

    Might one venture, EMWNBPM?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited November 2014
    So the Tories are down and UKIP up to a record high?

    --------------------------------------------------------

    October 18
    isam said:

    Still the twisting on here that the polls are bad for UKIP at the moment is good value entertainment, keep it coming!

    TheScreamingEagles • Posts: 16,940
    October 18 • edited October

    You keep on engaging in polling denying, I'm loving it
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    SeanT said:

    PAW said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11211018/You-dont-frighten-me-Jean-Claude-Juncker-taunts-David-Cameron.html

    Come on Dave, turn the money off.

    If David did simply refuse to pay, and had a pukka stramash with the EU, he'd probably get a 10% boost in the polls.

    He should time it so that the row starts in, say, March. Continue the fisticuffs through the election, pocket the election victory - then compromise with Brussels.

    The eurocrats would understand.
    Eurosceptics would never trust the Conservatives ever again. 25% for UKIP next time round for sure.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Curious last line to this article:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-29914919

    What is Mr Elton suggesting about London's schools?
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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    Afternoon all :)

    Another desperately poor month for the Conservatives and while both Marquee Mark and SeanT have increasingly fanciful ideas of how the Tories can sweep to victory and while the general idea on here seems to be that everything Ed Miliband says or does is a huige strategic error which will doom his leadership, the polls tell a different story.

    I'm increasingly of the view that May 2015 will be February 1974 redux - both the duopoly parties will lose support and as 1974 showed it's entirely possible for a party to lose support and win seats. UKIP will play the role the Liberals played in 1974 - lots of votes but very few seats.

    Six months tomorrow of course we'll all be a lot wiser, a few richer and many I suspect poorer.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,519
    FPT:
    Socrates said:

    "He's welcome to tell me how aviation fuel or burning debris is capable of bringing down a steel framed skyscraper -I look forward to it."

    Because steel becomes very weak at temperatures much above 1000 degrees Fahrenheit, and certainly too weak to hold up a massive skyscraper.

    I was unsuccessful in getting you to watch a video last time but I'll try again with this trailer, which answers your point.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrjcXOJIWw0

    Bottom line, all the explanations of how the planes brought down the towers (including the third one they didn't even hit), are taking an existing scenario, and explaining how that could have happened. NOT assessing what is most likely to have happened.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Socrates said:

    Labourites are rallying the troops with the following image on Twitter:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1sXEq0CcAEC-Kc.png

    So in Ed's ten point plan, three involve taxing people more and five are just reversing or partially reversing things the Tories have done. It's hardly brave new thinking from Labour, is it? The only big one is building a million more homes, but given there's no detail to this policy at all, it's a laughable one.

    Sadly for Ed, too many people only see point 11:

    I WILL FECK UP THE ECONOMY AGAIN.....

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour getting less than 30% is starting to look like an attractive bet, if it's available anywhere.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    antifrank said:

    This table was neatly summed up in the New Statesman article about Labour's troubles:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/only-way-down-if-labour-can-t-inspire-itself-how-can-it-inspire-country

    “It’s a battle between a shit Labour Party and a shit Conservative Party,” said one Labour frontbencher, distilling the mood of resigned misery. “The winner will be the one that’s a little bit less shit.”

    Hopefully neither of them win, which is what they deserve for both being so shit.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Given that you think temperatures hitting quadruple figures centigrade would not weaken steel what mechanism are you proposing for the collapse of the towers?
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2014
    Halesowen and Nuneaton

    Ashcroft sample 24 Sep 2014 - 3 October 2014 (YG used for comparable regional and nationals)

    National:........ LAB 36 CON 32
    Midlands:....... LAB 37 CON 34
    Halesowen:.... LAB 35 CON 34 (labour lead 1)
    Nuneaton........LAB 39 CON 36 (labour lead 3)

    Last Week

    National: .........LAB 33 CON 32 (lead down 3)
    Midlands:........ LAB 33 CON 32 (lead down 2)
    Constituency:...LAB .... CON ....

    Tories losing votes but recovering seats?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Tonight's matches:

    http://www.statto.com/football/stats/fixtures/2014-11-05

    I'm not a big football fan but I like the idea of trying out TSE's cash out strategy which was so successful during the World Cup.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:


    I an not 'pro Putin'. Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly ruthless and growingly autocratic, but the caricature in the media of a Dick Darstardly style villain who invades on a whim is simply silly. Even Hitler had a game plan. Do I believe Putin's game plan is to control and dominate our country and my life? Nope. Is there anything to be gained from antagonising him? Nope. Are we doing it because America (who recently called him the biggest threat to humanity) are doing it? Yep. Is this an area where their interests and ours are misaligned, therefore we should shut our traps and see which way things go? Yep.

    Britain's and America's (and France's and Germany's) interest in Ukraine is entirely aligned. It is moral and good to encourage them to move to a democratic system, and it is very dangerous to allow nations to invade and annex part of their neighbours.
    It was hardly a move toward a democratic system to unseat the democratically elected (UN observed, so don't try it) President.

    Our policy toward Russia should be one of caution, cordial relations, and positive engagement, based on our scary energy needs.

    Here's our policy toward Saudi Arabia, a far worse and more pernicious energy rich country:

    http://www.spa.gov.sa/galupload/normal/119880_1352213987_9161.jpg

    America may not need Russian gas, and that's fine -their policy toward Russia is a reckless one of ramping up the rhetoric and seeking conflict. We should not be joining them -it is utterly counter to our own needs.
    There was civilian unrest due to the fact the President ordered snipers to kill unarmed protesters on the streets. As a result, the president skipped town. He was voted as having left power by the democratically elected parliament, and fresh elections were announced. None of that justifies for a second Russia annexing parts of the country.
    Sorry but I won't allow that sniper claim to go down the memory hole. A deeply disturbing event.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573923/Estonian-Foreign-Ministry-confirms-authenticity-leaked-phone-call-discussing-Kiev-snipers-shot-protesters-possibly-hired-Ukraines-new-leaders.html

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f94_1399830458&comments=1
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    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    Scott_P said:

    @annemcelvoy: Tories in 2005 were only Opposition to improved poll ratings between conference season and next gen elec. via @hopisen and @georgeeaton .

    @JananGanesh: @annemcelvoy @hopisen @georgeeaton Lynton Crosby.

    Might one venture, EMWNBPM?

    His only chance is to hide in a cupboard until after May 8th.

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    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2014
    Socrates said:

    Labourites are rallying the troops with the following image on Twitter:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1sXEq0CcAEC-Kc.png

    So in Ed's ten point plan, three involve taxing people more and five are just reversing or partially reversing things the Tories have done. It's hardly brave new thinking from Labour, is it? The only big one is building a million more homes, but given there's no detail to this policy at all, it's a laughable one.

    Labour have promised colossal amounts of new housing at every election since 1992. Nothing (meaningful) has ever actually been done. Bunch of lying sh1tstains.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Juncker now openly taunting the British government:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11211018/You-dont-frighten-me-Jean-Claude-Juncker-taunts-David-Cameron.html

    This is the man the Europhiles think we should bow down to. I've avoided the word "traitors" to describe Europhiles for a long time, but when they think we should hand over power to a Commission so openly hostile to our country, I'm starting to reconsider.
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    SeanT said:

    PAW said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11211018/You-dont-frighten-me-Jean-Claude-Juncker-taunts-David-Cameron.html

    Come on Dave, turn the money off.

    If David did simply refuse to pay, and had a pukka stramash with the EU, he'd probably get a 10% boost in the polls.

    He should time it so that the row starts in, say, March. Continue the fisticuffs through the election, pocket the election victory - then compromise with Brussels.

    The eurocrats would understand.
    No he wouldn't. He's cried wolf, played the manjana card and been humiliated over the EU far too often. His shenaningans with Brussels are now pretty much priced in now.
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FalseFlag said:



    Sorry but I won't allow that sniper claim to go down the memory hole. A deeply disturbing event.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573923/Estonian-Foreign-Ministry-confirms-authenticity-leaked-phone-call-discussing-Kiev-snipers-shot-protesters-possibly-hired-Ukraines-new-leaders.html

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f94_1399830458&comments=1

    An Estonian source reported the conspiracy theories circulating on the ground in Ukraine? Oh, that must mean the conspiracy theory is true!
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Dave - many years of director's meetings have taught me this - be the first with the irrational statements - set the agenda. The other directors are fools, take advantage of it. Go into every meeting with a definite plan to get the result you want, don't drift, don't respond to diversions. You are not there to make up numbers.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2014
    Socrates said:

    Labourites are rallying the troops with the following image on Twitter:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B1sXEq0CcAEC-Kc.png

    So in Ed's ten point plan, three involve taxing people more and five are just reversing or partially reversing things the Tories have done. It's hardly brave new thinking from Labour, is it? The only big one is building a million more homes, but given there's no detail to this policy at all, it's a laughable one.

    It's a core vote strategy - what's that 28%, 27%? Lower?

    Hmm, how many times will they be taxing the Eeeevil Bankers?

    The energy bills freeze is a goody too - he's managed to lock in higher bills already, as the providers won't drop prices in reaction to wholesale energy cost falls, since they don't want to lose money if Labour gain power.
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Socrates - of course they are traitors. They see a potential reward in being so. It has to be made deeply unatractive to being so.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Katherine Fletcher selected for Tories in Ellesmere Port & Neston:

    http://www.wirralnews.co.uk/news/businesswoman-selected-fight-ellesmere-port-8011338
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    Curious last line to this article:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-29914919

    What is Mr Elton suggesting about London's schools?

    I hope his kids are under 7, keep him out of the country a bit longer...

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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited November 2014
    Scott_P said:

    @annemcelvoy: Tories in 2005 were only Opposition to improved poll ratings between conference season and next gen elec. via @hopisen and @georgeeaton .

    @JananGanesh: @annemcelvoy @hopisen @georgeeaton Lynton Crosby.

    Might one venture, EMWNBPM?

    One might, but one might also note that Labour don't need to improve them. Even a small loss would mean Miliband would be PM
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    It's certainly starting to appear that we are looking at a battle between Tory and Labour for most seats, with the winner on 280-290 max, and below 35% of the vote.

    Then it will be about deals and alliances.

    If the polls carry on this way, it's inevitable that the five main leaders - Cameron, Ed, Clegg, Sturgeon, Farage - will have to spell out, in advance, their respective positions in terms of alliances and red lines.


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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    edited November 2014
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    SimonStClare said:

    In other news.

    The town of Lewes in East Sussex will be torching a giant effigy of Alex Salmond, as part of their Guy Fawkes Night celebrations – And the Edenbridge Bonfire Society is planning to burn a 30 foot effigy of the outgoing President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso on 8 November.

    You got to just love those crazy little Englanders…!.

    East Sussex County Council faced an immediate backlash on Twitter after tweeting a picture of Mr Salmond's effigy, complete with "Yes" and "45%" badges and the Loch Ness monster looking over his shoulder.

    One Twitter user responded: "Can you imagine the uproar amongst Better Together campaigners had Yes supporters burned an effigy of David Cameron?"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29921797
    Several years ago, one of the bonfire societies in Lewes received the approval of Dr Paisley because they burnt an image of the then current pontiff. The following year, one of the enemies of bonfire burnt in effigy alongside the Pope, was a loud, large Ulsterman in a dog collar.

    They also burnt The Man from The Pru, after Prudential Insurance had refused to cover their event. Nigel Lawson went up one year, when mortgage rates had risen sharply.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    edited November 2014
    Socrates said:

    FalseFlag said:



    Sorry but I won't allow that sniper claim to go down the memory hole. A deeply disturbing event.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573923/Estonian-Foreign-Ministry-confirms-authenticity-leaked-phone-call-discussing-Kiev-snipers-shot-protesters-possibly-hired-Ukraines-new-leaders.html

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f94_1399830458&comments=1

    An Estonian source reported the conspiracy theories circulating on the ground in Ukraine? Oh, that must mean the conspiracy theory is true!
    Estonia are in the EU and in NATO.

    FPT:
    What was your reaction to Israel's unilateral annexation of East Jerusalem and the Golan in 1980-1981?
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    manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    chestnut said:

    It's certainly starting to appear that we are looking at a battle between Tory and Labour for most seats, with the winner on 280-290 max, and below 35% of the vote.

    Then it will be about deals and alliances.

    If the polls carry on this way, it's inevitable that the five main leaders - Cameron, Ed, Clegg, Sturgeon, Farage - will have to spell out, in advance, their respective positions in terms of alliances and red lines.


    it would be good if they did but I doubt they will. The Libdems (in the form of Lynne Featherstone) have already indicated they are not inclined to give away their negotiating position in advance.....
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    AndyJS said:

    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684

    And not a word of 'Why'. UKIP aren't very good with selection and open democracy.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    edited November 2014
    Just in case anyone thought that Paisley wasn't burnt in effigy in Lewes in 1982. I found this from a book Burn Holy Fire: Religion in Lewes Since the Reformation p157.

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/k9q2w7q

    The Cliffe Bonfire Society had or have quite a 'reputation'.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,991
    chestnut said:



    If the polls carry on this way, it's inevitable that the five main leaders - Cameron, Ed, Clegg, Sturgeon, Farage - will have to spell out, in advance, their respective positions in terms of alliances and red lines.


    That would be nice, although if it were to happen at all - and I suspect not, as manofkent says they will not want to give away negotiating positions - I think stating some red lines is more likely that alliances; while some might seem more obvious than others, both the big two would probably be willing to work with anyone to get in power. As UKIP are the most 'extreme' of options available, no combination is theoretically off the table as while ideologically some might find it harder, no-one is persona non grata.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheWatcher said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684

    And not a word of 'Why'. UKIP aren't very good with selection and open democracy.
    I'd have said there's a very clear Why. But that's not exactly something they can explicitly say right now.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    TheWatcher said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684

    And not a word of 'Why'. UKIP aren't very good with selection and open democracy.
    I assume this is because UKIP think they have a serious chance of winning the seat and want to select a better candidate. The same thing happened a few weeks ago in Basildon.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    TheWatcher said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684

    And not a word of 'Why'. UKIP aren't very good with selection and open democracy.
    I'd have said there's a very clear Why. But that's not exactly something they can explicitly say right now.
    Who do you think they'll parachute in?
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    antifrank said:

    Curious last line to this article:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-29914919

    What is Mr Elton suggesting about London's schools?

    That really is the epitome of a smug grin.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    edited November 2014
    A bit OT

    Anyone ever been heartbroken, or thoroughly depressed over a relationship, I recommend listening to Beck's "Sea Change" album. You couldn't fail to empathise

    Totally depressing if you let it be, but it is so powerful, and I think it is brilliant. Autumn is the best time to listen to it

    I just got a car and listened to it on the way home from a mates yesterday, forgot how great it is
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheWatcher said:

    antifrank said:

    TheWatcher said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684

    And not a word of 'Why'. UKIP aren't very good with selection and open democracy.
    I'd have said there's a very clear Why. But that's not exactly something they can explicitly say right now.
    Who do you think they'll parachute in?
    TBA after 22 November, I expect.
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    FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    edited November 2014
    SeanT said:

    The graph is fascinating. Look at the blue line. The decline in the Labour lead is remarkably consistent since Feb 2013 (what happened then?), once you ignore the stat noise.

    Their lead has declined by 8.3 points over 20 months. Which means they are shedding 0.415 points of average support a month. If that trend continues - and it is VERY consistent - they will be BELOW the Tories by the Election, having lost another 2.9 points.

    However this would still be enough to give them power in a hung parliament.

    Yet this presumes Labour don't lose votes to the Tories, and still maintain their FPTP advantage in Scotland (not to mention complicating factors like UKIP and the Greens).

    Which leads to the inevitable, sensible, and satisfyingly logical conclusion that I haven't got a bleedin clue who will win in 2015. Maybe Farage.

    Economy started picking up early 2013. I forecast a 4 to 6 Con lead election time.
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    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    PAW said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11211018/You-dont-frighten-me-Jean-Claude-Juncker-taunts-David-Cameron.html

    Come on Dave, turn the money off.

    What they gonna do, throw us out?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    The graph is fascinating. Look at the blue line. The decline in the Labour lead is remarkably consistent since Feb 2013 (what happened then?), once you ignore the stat noise.

    Their lead has declined by 8.3 points over 20 months. Which means they are shedding 0.415 points of average support a month. If that trend continues - and it is VERY consistent - they will be BELOW the Tories by the Election, having lost another 2.9 points.

    However this would still be enough to give them power in a hung parliament.

    Yet this presumes Labour don't lose votes to the Tories, and still maintain their FPTP advantage in Scotland (not to mention complicating factors like UKIP and the Greens).

    Which leads to the inevitable, sensible, and satisfyingly logical conclusion that I haven't got a bleedin clue who will win in 2015. Maybe Farage.

    Note where the major deviation in the direction of the line is. A particularly sharp drop in May 2014: at the time of the Euro elections. Not a good omen for a party if its sharpest drop in support is at a time when it actually matters.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    Annie Gaal ‏@NyeBeverage · 16m16 minutes ago
    How Guy Fawkes became progressively less cool... pic.twitter.com/Jg5qiCHFHY

  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    ah, how predictable.

    Laurie Penny ‏@PennyRed 21m21 minutes ago
    I'm actually from Lewes. I grew up there and went to Bonfire Night every year. I'm appalled by the Salmond effigy. #LewesBonfire
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2014
    SeanT said:

    The graph is fascinating. Look at the blue line. The decline in the Labour lead is remarkably consistent since Feb 2013 (what happened then?),

    Growth and Jobs.

    It hasn't lifted the Tories much, but it has shredded Labour's economic narrative.

    Labour's loss of Scotland will see Cameron over the line on most seats by a whisker, I feel.

    He then has to strike a deal on devolution/EV4EL/EU referendum in order to govern.

    The SNP stand aside in Westminster and he uses his English majority to run England, Sturgeon runs Scotland and Labour get Wales (although there's a bit of me wondering when that will become Ed's next electoral calamity).
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    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    antifrank said:

    TheWatcher said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684

    And not a word of 'Why'. UKIP aren't very good with selection and open democracy.
    I'd have said there's a very clear Why. But that's not exactly something they can explicitly say right now.
    You can't expect a brash young party like Ukip to be as foot-perfect as a sophisticated operation like the LDs at candidate selection, even in Portsmouth South.

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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    nigel4england said:

    antifrank said:

    Curious last line to this article:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-29914919

    What is Mr Elton suggesting about London's schools?

    That really is the epitome of a smug grin.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSuMSu20avs
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Good evening, everyone.

    Dr. Spyn, some people like being appalled. It's a hobby, I suppose.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maybe UKIP are lining up Diane James as candidate for Portsmouth South.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,988
    AndyJS said:

    TheWatcher said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another UKIP deselection — Douglas Denny in Portsmouth South:

    http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/ukip-ditches-its-candidate-for-portsmouth-south-1-6397684

    And not a word of 'Why'. UKIP aren't very good with selection and open democracy.
    I assume this is because UKIP think they have a serious chance of winning the seat and want to select a better candidate. The same thing happened a few weeks ago in Basildon.
    Diane James must be in with a shout of Portsmouth South? She hasn't picked a constituency to run in yet, and Eastleigh has gone
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    ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    FalseFlag said:

    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:


    I an not 'pro Putin'. Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly ruthless and growingly autocratic, but the caricature in the media of a Dick Darstardly style villain who invades on a whim is simply silly. Even Hitler had a game plan. Do I believe Putin's game plan is to control and dominate our country and my life? Nope. Is there anything to be gained from antagonising him? Nope. Are we doing it because America (who recently called him the biggest threat to humanity) are doing it? Yep. Is this an area where their interests and ours are misaligned, therefore we should shut our traps and see which way things go? Yep.

    Britain's and America's (and France's and Germany's) interest in Ukraine is entirely aligned. It is moral and good to encourage them to move to a democratic system, and it is very dangerous to allow nations to invade and annex part of their neighbours.
    It was hardly a move toward a democratic system to unseat the democratically elected (UN observed, so don't try it) President.

    Our policy toward Russia should be one of caution, cordial relations, and positive engagement, based on our scary energy needs.

    Here's our policy toward Saudi Arabia, a far worse and more pernicious energy rich country:

    http://www.spa.gov.sa/galupload/normal/119880_1352213987_9161.jpg

    America may not need Russian gas, and that's fine -their policy toward Russia is a reckless one of ramping up the rhetoric and seeking conflict. We should not be joining them -it is utterly counter to our own needs.
    There was civilian unrest due to the fact the President ordered snipers to kill unarmed protesters on the streets. As a result, the president skipped town. He was voted as having left power by the democratically elected parliament, and fresh elections were announced. None of that justifies for a second Russia annexing parts of the country.
    Sorry but I won't allow that sniper claim to go down the memory hole. A deeply disturbing event.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573923/Estonian-Foreign-Ministry-confirms-authenticity-leaked-phone-call-discussing-Kiev-snipers-shot-protesters-possibly-hired-Ukraines-new-leaders.html

    http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=f94_1399830458&comments=1

    That no one talks about MH17 tells you all you need to know.
    Estonia is not exactly a Russia-friendly country.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    edited November 2014
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Dr. Spyn, some people like being appalled. It's a hobby, I suppose.

    Must be another case of selective outrage. Why is Salmond so bloody special. The Lewes bonfires are burning pricks in authority, or authoritarian pricks. Did she weep and reach for her quill when Blair, Brown, Thatcher, Cameron, Bush, Reagan were burnt? Perhaps she is setting herself up for next year's celebrations.

    It is an amazing evening at Lewis on Nov 5th.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I believe Mike Hancock is avaiable.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Heres a lovely message for us. Pay attention, it's no laughing matter.

    Shaikh Faisal ‏@AuthenticTauhed 3h3 hours ago
    The kuffaar are saying pple who join IS may return 2 the WEST 2 do damage. Who told u they wanna return to a land inhabited by human devils?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    BBC Politics ‏@BBCPolitics 2h2 hours ago
    An effigy of the European Commisson's Jose Manuel Barroso is to be burnt as part of a Kent bonfire society's... http://bbc.in/1AiPF6Z

    Another one going up in flames.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Interesting to note that today not one of the people deriding the 911truther theories has been called an ignoramus.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The headline doesn't match the article, which is more informative than most articles on Britain's current difficulties with the EU:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/15f6a7da-64fe-11e4-ab2d-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/brussels/feed//product&siteedition=uk#axzz3HzzeOh64
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I believe Mike Hancock is avaiable.

    If you crossed over Richard, you may be just the man we need.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Dr. Spyn, well, some people like a good moan.

    Not me, though. A man with a firm understanding of differential front end grip cannot be other than filled with the joys of life.
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Lab maj 3/1 with Shadsy
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    dr_spyn said:

    ah, how predictable.

    Laurie Penny ‏@PennyRed 21m21 minutes ago
    I'm actually from Lewes. I grew up there and went to Bonfire Night every year. I'm appalled by the Salmond effigy. #LewesBonfire

    Laurie 'I cried when the nasty policemen kettled me' Penny? I bet she cheered when Thatcher was torched.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Interesting to note that today not one of the people deriding the 911truther theories has been called an ignoramus.

    On a site where posters have regularly called into question the holocaust, global warming and the rules of international law in areas where Russia is interested, I expect that the response of most of those of us who are busy is to sigh at another front opened by the confederacy of dunces and to move on.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    dr_spyn said:

    ah, how predictable.

    Laurie Penny ‏@PennyRed 21m21 minutes ago
    I'm actually from Lewes. I grew up there and went to Bonfire Night every year. I'm appalled by the Salmond effigy. #LewesBonfire

    She does have a point - the effigy as far too flattering.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,222
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    FPT:

    Socrates said:

    "He's welcome to tell me how aviation fuel or burning debris is capable of bringing down a steel framed skyscraper -I look forward to it."

    Because steel becomes very weak at temperatures much above 1000 degrees Fahrenheit, and certainly too weak to hold up a massive skyscraper.

    I was unsuccessful in getting you to watch a video last time but I'll try again with this trailer, which answers your point.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrjcXOJIWw0

    Bottom line, all the explanations of how the planes brought down the towers (including the third one they didn't even hit), are taking an existing scenario, and explaining how that could have happened. NOT assessing what is most likely to have happened.
    Not so: the explanations look at the evidence, analyse it and work out what happened based on that evidence. They have also explained how and why the third tower fell.

    The trouble with conspiracy theories is that they ignore the evidence and then ask questions based either on things that didn't happen or on stuff that has happened but has been explained or on a misunderstanding of what they have been told. So - because the North Tower fell in a way that a tower might fall were there a controlled demolition they assume that it must have been that and ask you to disprove something that hasn't been proved yet when the evidence shows how and why the North Tower fell in the way that it did.

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    stodgestodge Posts: 12,889
    SeanT said:


    I never mentioned a Tory "sweep to victory". I think it's entirely possible Labour could go sub-30 but the Tories will only get a measly 32 or 33, and we have a very hung parliament, with the two parties practically tied on seats. Or Labour just ahead.

    FWIW a Baxtering of this result

    Tories: 33
    Labour: 30
    LD: 10
    UKIP; 14

    gives no overall majority, but it does give Labour a plurality - by two seats

    That said, there are now so many imponderables in the next election - from UKIP to Scotland - Baxtering is virtually useless.

    But if I was a politician right now I'd be slightly more depressed if I was a Labour MP than a Tory MP.

    I'm not convinced the Conservatives won't finish around 30 as well - so it could be 30-30-15-10 (Con-Lab-UKIP-LD) with significant totals for the SNP and the Greens as well. On that basis, Labour will probably the largest party and probably able to form a minority Government.

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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    antifrank said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Interesting to note that today not one of the people deriding the 911truther theories has been called an ignoramus.

    On a site where posters have regularly called into question the holocaust, global warming and the rules of international law in areas where Russia is interested, I expect that the response of most of those of us who are busy is to sigh at another front opened by the confederacy of dunces and to move on.
    I was called an utter ignoramus yesterday for daring to suggest that MikeK might not want to promote the writing (on a different topic) of a 911 truther. That attack on me has not been withdrawn despite my clear explanation of why I had made such a suggestion to MikeK.
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    TapestryTapestry Posts: 153
    Hello, Tapestry. We were discussing the mechanism whereby the Twin Towers collapsed on the previous thread. Do you have a view? I know you hold views which may be considered 'unconventional' by some. Anorak.

    OK. The Twin Towers fell down and the material from which they were constructed disappeared into dust. You could actually see steel beams 'dustifying' as they fell. The streets filled with paper showing no signs of fire, and dust. There was only one tenth of the wreckage on the ground that should have been there.

    Another unusual phenomenon was that of toasted cars - melted down one side but completely intact on the other. Also seen were inverted cars which flew up in the air and landed on their backs.

    All you can say for sure that these things were never seen before. The most likely explanation is that this was a directed energy weapon of some kind.

    http://tapnewswire.com/2011/11/dr-judy-wood-where-did-the-towers-go/
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,412
    JonnyJimmy said:

    Interesting to note that today not one of the people deriding the 911truther theories has been called an ignoramus.

    I'm still working on that bar chart for you :)
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    JonnyJimmy said:

    antifrank said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Interesting to note that today not one of the people deriding the 911truther theories has been called an ignoramus.

    On a site where posters have regularly called into question the holocaust, global warming and the rules of international law in areas where Russia is interested, I expect that the response of most of those of us who are busy is to sigh at another front opened by the confederacy of dunces and to move on.
    I was called an utter ignoramus yesterday for daring to suggest that MikeK might not want to promote the writing (on a different topic) of a 911 truther. That attack on me has not been withdrawn despite my clear explanation of why I had made such a suggestion to MikeK.
    Remember the compliments and forget the insults.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,002
    Mr. Antifrank, I think it's ridiculous to put the Holocaust alongside the contentious issue of global warming, and the contentious issue of the politics relating to the Ukraine/Russia situation.

    It's a small step away from the uncouth 'denier' language.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    SimonStClare said:

    dr_spyn said:

    ah, how predictable.

    Laurie Penny ‏@PennyRed 21m21 minutes ago
    I'm actually from Lewes. I grew up there and went to Bonfire Night every year. I'm appalled by the Salmond effigy. #LewesBonfire

    She does have a point - the effigy as far too flattering.
    She has set herself up for next year's celebrations.

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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    antifrank said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    antifrank said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Interesting to note that today not one of the people deriding the 911truther theories has been called an ignoramus.

    On a site where posters have regularly called into question the holocaust, global warming and the rules of international law in areas where Russia is interested, I expect that the response of most of those of us who are busy is to sigh at another front opened by the confederacy of dunces and to move on.
    I was called an utter ignoramus yesterday for daring to suggest that MikeK might not want to promote the writing (on a different topic) of a 911 truther. That attack on me has not been withdrawn despite my clear explanation of why I had made such a suggestion to MikeK.
    Remember the compliments and forget the insults.
    I've had compliments? I'd guess they were backhanded ;)
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    TapestryTapestry Posts: 153
    The planes crashing into the towers were not all you imagine either.
    http://tapnewswire.com/2010/11/planes-hitting-twin-towers-were-computer-graphics/
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Antifrank, I think it's ridiculous to put the Holocaust alongside the contentious issue of global warming, and the contentious issue of the politics relating to the Ukraine/Russia situation.

    It's a small step away from the uncouth 'denier' language.

    I'm sure you could find Holocaust sceptics who would object to being put in the same camp as climate change sceptics too.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,290
    Poor old Eck, he just reverts to type.

    BBC Scotland News ‏@BBCScotlandNews 5m5 minutes ago
    UPDATE: @alexsalmond on #LewesBonfire: "I am used to insults from Tories in East Sussex" http://bbc.in/1vJoJFp
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited November 2014
    antifrank said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    antifrank said:

    JonnyJimmy said:

    Interesting to note that today not one of the people deriding the 911truther theories has been called an ignoramus.

    On a site where posters have regularly called into question the holocaust, global warming and the rules of international law in areas where Russia is interested, I expect that the response of most of those of us who are busy is to sigh at another front opened by the confederacy of dunces and to move on.
    I was called an utter ignoramus yesterday for daring to suggest that MikeK might not want to promote the writing (on a different topic) of a 911 truther. That attack on me has not been withdrawn despite my clear explanation of why I had made such a suggestion to MikeK.
    Remember the compliments and forget the insults.
    You see, that's where you're going wrong - you're remembering the insults and forgetting the compliments!
This discussion has been closed.