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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big question is what’s happening in Britain’s Ohio, Florida and Virginia

For there, as we all followed closely just two years ago, everything is focused on the so called swing States – the ones that will decide the election. The national polling shares were almost irrelevant – it was the data coming from the select group that was the main focus and was the base of the predictions coming from Nate Silver and others.

Read the full story here

Tim_B

First?

opinionbee

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

A conservative estimate of 50 seats, at 1000 people polled per seat, means that 50,000 people would have to be phoned up (the only way you can be sure that these people live in the constituency) every week - or perhaps every day close to the vote - and that's if you've guessed the right seats to poll in. On top of that, each seat is only 1/650th of the entire result.

The national poll model isn't perfect, but applying a UNS isn't supposed to tell you what the results will be in individual seats, it's supposed to give you an idea of the national result (and you can make the adjustments for seats like Bradford West, Brighton Pavillon, or Clacton as you see fit).

The thing is, there's always "safe" seats that change hands and "marginal" seats that refuse to budge, but taking a guess on which seat will do what is not a good basis to work out who's likely to form the next government. In comparison to the US, in absolute terms, every UK seat is marginal.

JohnLoony

Perhaps we should adopt the USA presidential system for UK parliamentary elections. Divide the country into 50 constituencies, of varying sizes, and have a block vote for the largest party to win all the seats in each area.

JohnLoony

Or the MP for each of the 650 constituencies should be indirectly elected by an electoral college of members who are elected separately by each ward within the constituency. It would be a bit like local elections - for example, in Croydon Central we would only have to focus our campaigning on 3 or 4 wards instead of 8.

audreyanne

Really interesting response by opinionbee below (hell of a first post).

I like individual constituency polling for seeing trends, but they should be taken as nothing more than that. On past performance Lord Ashcroft is the least accurate pollster in Britain and opinionbee gives at least one sound reason why. It will be interesting to see if Lord A's drop in Labour support yesterday is a response to widespread criticism that he consistently overstates the Labour share.

opinionbee

audreyanne said:

Really interesting response by opinionbee below (hell of a first post).

Thank you!

I think Ashcroft's lower share of the vote for Labour (and often the Conservatives too) is down to the methodology (party because he conducts the majority of his polls by phone) rather than any inaccuracies, as such. You see the same in the other direction from Populus, who consistently give Labour and the Conservatives a few extra percentage points compared to the field of pollsters. Neither have clients for their polls - they do them for profile reasons - but that may, or may not, be unconnected.

@OpinionBee

Freggles

opinionbee said:

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

A conservative estimate of 50 seats, at 1000 people polled per seat, means that 50,000 people would have to be phoned up (the only way you can be sure that these people live in the constituency) every week - or perhaps every day close to the vote - and that's if you've guessed the right seats to poll in. On top of that, each seat is only 1/650th of the entire result.

The national poll model isn't perfect, but applying a UNS isn't supposed to tell you what the results will be in individual seats, it's supposed to give you an idea of the national result (and you can make the adjustments for seats like Bradford West, Brighton Pavillon, or Clacton as you see fit).

The thing is, there's always "safe" seats that change hands and "marginal" seats that refuse to budge, but taking a guess on which seat will do what is not a good basis to work out who's likely to form the next government. In comparison to the US, in absolute terms, every UK seat is marginal.

But Ashcroft's polls look at the constituencies as a whole, in same way that a national poll looks at while country. As long as the sample is random enough but representative, it's fine.

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

Alanbrooke

Freggles said:

opinionbee said:

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

A conservative estimate of 50 seats, at 1000 people polled per seat, means that 50,000 people would have to be phoned up (the only way you can be sure that these people live in the constituency) every week - or perhaps every day close to the vote - and that's if you've guessed the right seats to poll in. On top of that, each seat is only 1/650th of the entire result.

The national poll model isn't perfect, but applying a UNS isn't supposed to tell you what the results will be in individual seats, it's supposed to give you an idea of the national result (and you can make the adjustments for seats like Bradford West, Brighton Pavillon, or Clacton as you see fit).

The thing is, there's always "safe" seats that change hands and "marginal" seats that refuse to budge, but taking a guess on which seat will do what is not a good basis to work out who's likely to form the next government. In comparison to the US, in absolute terms, every UK seat is marginal.

But Ashcroft's polls look at the constituencies as a whole, in same way that a national poll looks at while country. As long as the sample is random enough but representative, it's fine.

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

LOL

so a millionaire gave maybe 68p more and I'm meant to marvel at his generosity. Personally I think the Labour spin team will be trying to forget this asap rather than argue what level generous starts at.

GeoffM

Freggles said:

opinionbee said:

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

A conservative estimate of 50 seats, at 1000 people polled per seat, means that 50,000 people would have to be phoned up (the only way you can be sure that these people live in the constituency) every week - or perhaps every day close to the vote - and that's if you've guessed the right seats to poll in. On top of that, each seat is only 1/650th of the entire result.

The national poll model isn't perfect, but applying a UNS isn't supposed to tell you what the results will be in individual seats, it's supposed to give you an idea of the national result (and you can make the adjustments for seats like Bradford West, Brighton Pavillon, or Clacton as you see fit).

The thing is, there's always "safe" seats that change hands and "marginal" seats that refuse to budge, but taking a guess on which seat will do what is not a good basis to work out who's likely to form the next government. In comparison to the US, in absolute terms, every UK seat is marginal.

But Ashcroft's polls look at the constituencies as a whole, in same way that a national poll looks at while country. As long as the sample is random enough but representative, it's fine.

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

What to believe: photographic evidence or the claims of a vulnerable person who has been leaned on by spin doctors?

Anyway, who cares? Nothing can spoil my day. The Republicans are about to seize control of the Senate and bring Obama's reign of madness to an end. Or at least stick a massive sea-anchor on the whole awful thing. Oh frabjous day! Rejoice!

Indigo

Freggles said:

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

No, because the 2p was besides the point. It was an obviously posed stunt, one of the photographers is even in some of the shots. Even with it being a posed stunt he still managed to look awkward and ill at ease. Even if he had looked suave and debonair it doesn't alter the fact that he was encouraging begging contrary to the Vagrancy Act (as mentioned by the GMP), and the girl was under aged and should be in school. He also managed to open the can of worms of homes full of immigrants pulling in more benefits than pensioners that have being paying contributions their whole working life - but apart from that it went quite well I think...

rcs1000

I always thought Ohio, Florida and Virginia should be in the UK

Indigo

EU hard at work cheerleading for UKIP again I see:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/11206621/EU-threatens-to-fine-Britain-70-million-a-month.html

"The EU is now threatening to charge Britain an annual interest rate of 52 per cent, equivalent to £823 million, if it refuses to pay the full amount by December 1."

"Tory MPs described the £2.3 million a day of interest payments as so exploitative that they would make "the most predatory payday loan shark blush"."

logical_song

Indigo said:

Freggles said:

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

No, because the 2p was besides the point. It was an obviously posed stunt, one of the photographers is even in some of the shots. Even with it being a posed stunt he still managed to look awkward and ill at ease. Even if he had looked suave and debonair it doesn't alter the fact that he was encouraging begging contrary to the Vagrancy Act (as mentioned by the GMP), and the girl was under aged and should be in school. He also managed to open the can of worms of homes full of immigrants pulling in more benefits than pensioners that have being paying contributions their whole working life - but apart from that it went quite well I think...

Probably a little unfair. OMG, do I ignore this beggar? Think of the headlines. Lose-lose situation.

GeoffM

Alanbrooke said:

Freggles said:

opinionbee said:

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

A conservative estimate of 50 seats, at 1000 people polled per seat, means that 50,000 people would have to be phoned up (the only way you can be sure that these people live in the constituency) every week - or perhaps every day close to the vote - and that's if you've guessed the right seats to poll in. On top of that, each seat is only 1/650th of the entire result.

The national poll model isn't perfect, but applying a UNS isn't supposed to tell you what the results will be in individual seats, it's supposed to give you an idea of the national result (and you can make the adjustments for seats like Bradford West, Brighton Pavillon, or Clacton as you see fit).

The thing is, there's always "safe" seats that change hands and "marginal" seats that refuse to budge, but taking a guess on which seat will do what is not a good basis to work out who's likely to form the next government. In comparison to the US, in absolute terms, every UK seat is marginal.

But Ashcroft's polls look at the constituencies as a whole, in same way that a national poll looks at while country. As long as the sample is random enough but representative, it's fine.

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

LOL

so a millionaire gave maybe 68p more and I'm meant to marvel at his generosity. Personally I think the Labour spin team will be trying to forget this asap rather than argue what level generous starts at.

Where has this alleged "70p" thing been planted by the spinners anyway?

I didn't notice it in the Telegraph online. Finished the crosswords easily enough though.

logical_song

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Alanbrooke

GeoffM said:

Alanbrooke said:

Freggles said:

opinionbee said:

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

A conservative estimate of 50 seats, at 1000 people polled per seat, means that 50,000 people would have to be phoned up (the only way you can be sure that these people live in the constituency) every week - or perhaps every day close to the vote - and that's if you've guessed the right seats to poll in. On top of that, each seat is only 1/650th of the entire result.

The national poll model isn't perfect, but applying a UNS isn't supposed to tell you what the results will be in individual seats, it's supposed to give you an idea of the national result (and you can make the adjustments for seats like Bradford West, Brighton Pavillon, or Clacton as you see fit).

The thing is, there's always "safe" seats that change hands and "marginal" seats that refuse to budge, but taking a guess on which seat will do what is not a good basis to work out who's likely to form the next government. In comparison to the US, in absolute terms, every UK seat is marginal.

But Ashcroft's polls look at the constituencies as a whole, in same way that a national poll looks at while country. As long as the sample is random enough but representative, it's fine.

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

LOL

so a millionaire gave maybe 68p more and I'm meant to marvel at his generosity. Personally I think the Labour spin team will be trying to forget this asap rather than argue what level generous starts at.

Where has this alleged "70p" thing been planted by the spinners anyway?

I didn't notice it in the Telegraph online. Finished the crosswords easily enough though.

oh I wouldn't worry about it the spinners decided it was 70p and sacrificed Sadiq Khan to take the heat off his boss

JosiasJessop

logical_song said:

Indigo said:

Freggles said:

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

No, because the 2p was besides the point. It was an obviously posed stunt, one of the photographers is even in some of the shots. Even with it being a posed stunt he still managed to look awkward and ill at ease. Even if he had looked suave and debonair it doesn't alter the fact that he was encouraging begging contrary to the Vagrancy Act (as mentioned by the GMP), and the girl was under aged and should be in school. He also managed to open the can of worms of homes full of immigrants pulling in more benefits than pensioners that have being paying contributions their whole working life - but apart from that it went quite well I think...

Probably a little unfair. OMG, do I ignore this beggar? Think of the headlines. Lose-lose situation.

You cover that by stating:
1) "I support charities that help the homeless"
2) "My government will end the scourge of homelessness."
3) "There are legal and ethical problems with giving money directly to beggars."
4) "None of the twenty people I was with donated either, including the good members of the press."

They may or may not be lies, but it is better than the odd situation that prevailed. They also might kick-start a much-needed debate. Miliband should have ignored her and used excuses similar to the above or, even better, actually stopped to talk to the beggar. Miliband is trying to project himself as understanding people, unlike the "out of touch Tories". Wheat better way of understanding them than being seen trying to engage them in conversation?

It was a halfway house that made him look mildly silly and insincere. Having said that, this is the sort of situation where I feel sympathy for any politician - they cannot stop to help every beggar, and any genuine donation of coins out of the pocket will always be derided.

BTW, I hope the girl in question gets suitably remunerated by the good men and women of the press. I doubt she'll be begging at that spot now ...

DecrepitJohnL

GeoffM said:

Freggles said:

opinionbee said:

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

A conservative estimate of 50 seats, at 1000 people polled per seat, means that 50,000 people would have to be phoned up (the only way you can be sure that these people live in the constituency) every week - or perhaps every day close to the vote - and that's if you've guessed the right seats to poll in. On top of that, each seat is only 1/650th of the entire result.

The national poll model isn't perfect, but applying a UNS isn't supposed to tell you what the results will be in individual seats, it's supposed to give you an idea of the national result (and you can make the adjustments for seats like Bradford West, Brighton Pavillon, or Clacton as you see fit).

The thing is, there's always "safe" seats that change hands and "marginal" seats that refuse to budge, but taking a guess on which seat will do what is not a good basis to work out who's likely to form the next government. In comparison to the US, in absolute terms, every UK seat is marginal.

But Ashcroft's polls look at the constituencies as a whole, in same way that a national poll looks at while country. As long as the sample is random enough but representative, it's fine.

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

What to believe: photographic evidence or the claims of a vulnerable person who has been leaned on by spin doctors?

Anyway, who cares? Nothing can spoil my day. The Republicans are about to seize control of the Senate and bring Obama's reign of madness to an end. Or at least stick a massive sea-anchor on the whole awful thing. Oh frabjous day! Rejoice!

Yes, and if the Republicans manage to shut down the government again and derail the American recovery, it will help cement George Osborne's reputation as an economic genius.

Indigo

JosiasJessop said:

You cover that by stating:
1) "I support charities that help the homeless"
2) "My government will end the scourge of homelessness."
3) "There are legal and ethical problems with giving money directly to beggars."
4) "None of the twenty people I was with donated either, including the good members of the press."

If you try 1) you better damn well have a history of supporting such charities or the press will hang you out to dry!

Labour created much of the problem in the first place by allowing people to come to this country without a job. One can speculate the reason that social services let the girl beg on the street, probably worried about being called racist.

If it had been a white 14 year old begging on the street how long before her aunt (the responsible adult in this situation) got a) fined for not putting her in school and b) visited by social services for allowing her niece to beg on the streets.

MikeK

logical_song said:

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Good morning; up a bit earlier than is usual for me.

Everything about American elections and politics is back to front compared with the rest of the world.

The right is coloured red
The left is coloured blue

But the so called Right, the Republicans are now massaging their rightness, and the so called Left, the Democrats are getting fed up with their now anarchic liberalism.

This sort of situation can't last but it's what we have now.

logical_song

I didn't say that he made the right decision, he doesn't seem to be too good at that. I was disagreeing with Indigo's assertion that it was a "posed stunt".

JosiasJessop said:

logical_song said:

Indigo said:

Freggles said:

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

No, because the 2p was besides the point. It was an obviously posed stunt, one of the photographers is even in some of the shots. Even with it being a posed stunt he still managed to look awkward and ill at ease. Even if he had looked suave and debonair it doesn't alter the fact that he was encouraging begging contrary to the Vagrancy Act (as mentioned by the GMP), and the girl was under aged and should be in school. He also managed to open the can of worms of homes full of immigrants pulling in more benefits than pensioners that have being paying contributions their whole working life - but apart from that it went quite well I think...

Probably a little unfair. OMG, do I ignore this beggar? Think of the headlines. Lose-lose situation.

You cover that by stating:
1) "I support charities that help the homeless"
2) "My government will end the scourge of homelessness."
3) "There are legal and ethical problems with giving money directly to beggars."
4) "None of the twenty people I was with donated either, including the good members of the press."

They may or may not be lies, but it is better than the odd situation that prevailed. They also might kick-start a much-needed debate. Miliband should have ignored her and used excuses similar to the above or, even better, actually stopped to talk to the beggar. Miliband is trying to project himself as understanding people, unlike the "out of touch Tories". Wheat better way of understanding them than being seen trying to engage them in conversation?

It was a halfway house that made him look mildly silly and insincere. Having said that, this is the sort of situation where I feel sympathy for any politician - they cannot stop to help every beggar, and any genuine donation of coins out of the pocket will always be derided.

BTW, I hope the girl in question gets suitably remunerated by the good men and women of the press. I doubt she'll be begging at that spot now ...

Scott_P

logical_song said:

I didn't say that he made the right decision, he doesn't seem to be too good at that. I was disagreeing with Indigo's assertion that it was a "posed stunt".

If it wasn't a posed stunt, why were several press photographers following Ed down a street in Manchester?

logical_song

MikeK said:

logical_song said:

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Good morning; up a bit earlier than is usual for me.

Everything about American elections and politics is back to front compared with the rest of the world.

The right is coloured red
The left is coloured blue

But the so called Right, the Republicans are now massaging their rightness, and the so called Left, the Democrats are getting fed up with their now anarchic liberalism.

This sort of situation can't last but it's what we have now.

American politics is interesting. It's also a bit odd.
Apart from the inverted colours (colors) everything is shifted to the right and religion plays an important part in their politics*.
Moderate Tories might well support Democrats.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/08/why_shouldnt_obamas_campaign_g046235.php

*But we may say goodbye to Pat Robertson this time.

logical_song

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

I didn't say that he made the right decision, he doesn't seem to be too good at that. I was disagreeing with Indigo's assertion that it was a "posed stunt".

If it wasn't a posed stunt, why were several press photographers following Ed down a street in Manchester?

He's the leader of the opposition, the Press follow him.

Scott_P

logical_song said:

He's the leader of the opposition, the Press follow him.

So where were all the other pictures of the trip?

MikeK

I wish Palin would stand:

On Point leading the Conservative Wave to restore America pic.twitter.com/hnsCnoOFPP

— Panzer Leader (@ArmorCavSpin) November 3, 2014

Indigo

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/11/nicky-morgan-education-secretary-a-modern-tragicomedy/

Oh dear. Choices choices, drive off more CON voters to UKIP or the LDs, which way to jump when you are an Education Secretary out of your depth, rather than say keeping your mouth shut and keeping everyone on board.

logical_song

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

He's the leader of the opposition, the Press follow him.

So where were all the other pictures of the trip?

Maybe they weren't as newsworthy?

Socrates

logical_song said:

MikeK said:

logical_song said:

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Good morning; up a bit earlier than is usual for me.

Everything about American elections and politics is back to front compared with the rest of the world.

The right is coloured red
The left is coloured blue

But the so called Right, the Republicans are now massaging their rightness, and the so called Left, the Democrats are getting fed up with their now anarchic liberalism.

This sort of situation can't last but it's what we have now.

American politics is interesting. It's also a bit odd.
Apart from the inverted colours (colors) everything is shifted to the right and religion plays an important part in their politics*.
Moderate Tories might well support Democrats.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/08/why_shouldnt_obamas_campaign_g046235.php

*But we may say goodbye to Pat Robertson this time.

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

Scott_P

logical_song said:

Maybe they weren't as newsworthy?

Ed giving money to a beggar isn't newsworthy, unless it's a planned stunt.

Indigo

Socrates said:

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

Wouldn't most Kippers have been comfortable with Reagan ?

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem"

logical_song

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

Maybe they weren't as newsworthy?

Ed giving money to a beggar isn't newsworthy, unless it's a planned stunt.

I realise I'm not going to convince you, but I did see the picture all over the papers, internet and TV. So maybe it was newsworthy.

TGOHF

You drag the beggar to social services and demand the send her to school.

under no circumstances do you give them money.

Innocent_Abroad

O/T Norman Baker has probably done the Lib Dems more good by quitting than the rest of their Parliamentary Party in the last four-and-a-half (nearly) years. (And showing up Teresa May for what she is, too.) Oh, and not even Gorgeous George G or Nigel Garage could have given us this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDd_deMoUpc

SouthamObserver

Socrates said:

logical_song said:

MikeK said:

logical_song said:

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Good morning; up a bit earlier than is usual for me.

Everything about American elections and politics is back to front compared with the rest of the world.

The right is coloured red
The left is coloured blue

But the so called Right, the Republicans are now massaging their rightness, and the so called Left, the Democrats are getting fed up with their now anarchic liberalism.

This sort of situation can't last but it's what we have now.

American politics is interesting. It's also a bit odd.
Apart from the inverted colours (colors) everything is shifted to the right and religion plays an important part in their politics*.
Moderate Tories might well support Democrats.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/08/why_shouldnt_obamas_campaign_g046235.php

*But we may say goodbye to Pat Robertson this time.

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

The US signed up to NAFTA and the WTO under the Democrats. WTO membership obliges the US to accept rulings made by bodies that are based outside the US and which regularly force the US to change its domestic laws.

http://www.economyincrisis.net/sites/all/pdf/WTOstudyEIC.pdf

NAFTA has seen huge numbers of US businesses relocate to Mexico and others use it as a way to negotiate lower wage settlements:

http://www.epi.org/blog/naftas-impact-workers/

Socrates

I see the EU is fulfilling my characterisation of the protection racket nicely. Not content with changing the rules of the contract as they go, demanding random shakedowns when it looks like we're making more profit than they realise, and threatening "consequences" if we try to leave... they are now charging loan shark style interest rates.

Scott_P

logical_song said:

So maybe it was newsworthy.

A stunt.

Did we see other pictures of the trip? No.
Did we see pictures of Ed buying his poppy or other charity donations? No.
Is it usual for press photographers to have time to get into position before someone drops cash into a beggar's cup? No.

It was a stunt. It backfired spectacularly, although perhaps not as badly as the "this is what exploitation looks like" t-shirts

TheScreamingEagles

Ouch

@BBCr4today: ‘His problem was that he regarded himself as being on a par with the Home Secretary.’ - Damian Green on Norman Baker's resignation.

Innocent_Abroad

MikeK said:

I wish Palin would stand:

On Point leading the Conservative Wave to restore America pic.twitter.com/hnsCnoOFPP

— Panzer Leader (@ArmorCavSpin) November 3, 2014

So you want the Democrats to win in two years time? (Which they will if the GOP is daft enough to shut down the US government again - a lot of good it did them last time.)

AlastairMeeks

Morning all. My latest post on the SNP's constituency odds is up:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-snp-battleground-in-november-2014.html

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

Socrates said:

logical_song said:

MikeK said:

logical_song said:

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Good morning; up a bit earlier than is usual for me.

Everything about American elections and politics is back to front compared with the rest of the world.

The right is coloured red
The left is coloured blue

But the so called Right, the Republicans are now massaging their rightness, and the so called Left, the Democrats are getting fed up with their now anarchic liberalism.

This sort of situation can't last but it's what we have now.

American politics is interesting. It's also a bit odd.
Apart from the inverted colours (colors) everything is shifted to the right and religion plays an important part in their politics*.
Moderate Tories might well support Democrats.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/08/why_shouldnt_obamas_campaign_g046235.php

*But we may say goodbye to Pat Robertson this time.

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

The US signed up to NAFTA and the WTO under the Democrats. WTO membership obliges the US to accept rulings made by bodies that are based outside the US and which regularly force the US to change its domestic laws.

http://www.economyincrisis.net/sites/all/pdf/WTOstudyEIC.pdf

NAFTA has seen huge numbers of US businesses relocate to Mexico and others use it as a way to negotiate lower wage settlements:

http://www.epi.org/blog/naftas-impact-workers/

The WTO courts can't pass new laws which have primacy over US law. The European Union Parliament can. Any WTO courts have to obey by the very specific terms that the US has agreed to.

You know very well I support free trade agreements. The economic benefits are such that those working out could be compensated.

logical_song

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

So maybe it was newsworthy.

A stunt.

Did we see other pictures of the trip? No.
Did we see pictures of Ed buying his poppy or other charity donations? No.
Is it usual for press photographers to have time to get into position before someone drops cash into a beggar's cup? No.

It was a stunt. It backfired spectacularly, although perhaps not as badly as the "this is what exploitation looks like" t-shirts

Well, I did say I didn't expect to convince you.
The guy was caught in a situation he (correctly) felt uncomfortable with. The photographers saw an opportunity to get a good shot. Simple as that.
If by any chance you are correct, then whoever came up with the idea - 'Hey let's find a beggar and give her 2p without checking how old she is.' - should be fired.
It was a cockup not a conspiracy.

DavidL

I have never been to Ohio but the other 2 are definitely in the US. Strange thread header. Maybe will make more sense to me when I have woken up.

Lord A's polling will be useful when it has shown itself to be accurate. This is an event that is still awaited.

SouthamObserver

Indigo said:

Socrates said:

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

Wouldn't most Kippers have been comfortable with Reagan ?

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem"

It depends. Ex-Labour voters might take some convincing that Reagonomics is in their best interests. Therein lies UKIP's future dilemma, of course. Can a party leadership comprised mainly of right-wingers frame a message beyond immigration that appeals to people who believe in nationalisation, strong trade unions and many of the other tenets of Old Labour?

NickPalmer

Interesting thread and a thought-provoking piece by Bee. It's right that it's difficult to predict exactly which seats will prove ultra-marginal and there will always be some random-looking variation, but in the current tight situation it's also true that doing constituency surveys with a decent sample balanced to the local population tells us a lot. For instance, if it wasn't for Ashcroft, we'd still be factoring into our predictions a supposed incumbency bonus that seems not to exist this time. But the constituency polls in the tight marginals could do with a revisit in the New Year, perhaps with candidate names this time.

O/T: Looking ahead, does Norman Baker's resignation make him an interesting bet for next leader? I know Tories recoil from him but they don't get to vote. A leftish former minister who fell out with Theresa May over liberalisation sounds quite an attractive deal for a LibDem voter.

logical_song

MikeK said:

I wish Palin would stand:

On Point leading the Conservative Wave to restore America pic.twitter.com/hnsCnoOFPP

— Panzer Leader (@ArmorCavSpin) November 3, 2014

Palin wants to spank the President. Looks like she's getting in practice:
http://hollywoodlife.com/2014/09/12/sarah-palin-fight-house-party-bristol-palin-punch/

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

He's the leader of the opposition, the Press follow him.

So where were all the other pictures of the trip?

All the photos I've seen are copyrighted to Getty, London News Pictures or PA. This probably means there were three freelance photographers involved who sell to agencies.

Freggles

Alanbrooke said:

Freggles said:

opinionbee said:

You seem to be comparing Apples with Oranges. The average US state has roughly the same population as twice that of Wales, or 1.5 times that of Scotland. Indeed, California is only a few million short of the population of England! If the UK constituencies were that big, then polling would be undertaken in each constituency as a matter of course; as it is, the number of constituencies you would have to individually poll to get any kind of representative result is huge.

But Ashcroft's polls look at the constituencies as a whole, in same way that a national poll looks at while country. As long as the sample is random enough but representative, it's fine.

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

LOL

so a millionaire gave maybe 68p more and I'm meant to marvel at his generosity. Personally I think the Labour spin team will be trying to forget this asap rather than argue what level generous starts at.

Where has this alleged "70p" thing been planted by the spinners anyway?

I didn't notice it in the Telegraph online. Finished the crosswords easily enough though.

In that notoriously pro Miliband red rag the Daily Mail.

Interesting how you're all falling over yourselves to say the amount doesn't matter. At the time you were all over the 2p angle. So transparent.

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

So maybe it was newsworthy.

A stunt.

Did we see other pictures of the trip? No.
Did we see pictures of Ed buying his poppy or other charity donations? No.
Is it usual for press photographers to have time to get into position before someone drops cash into a beggar's cup? No.

It was a stunt. It backfired spectacularly, although perhaps not as badly as the "this is what exploitation looks like" t-shirts

I know Ed isn't graceful but look at that photo. You think that's a well planned, posed shot?

Scott_P

logical_song said:

The photographers saw an opportunity to get a good shot. Simple as that.

It's amazing that several press photographers were able to get pin sharp shots of a completely spontaneous and random event by Ed, when there is not a single press shot of the PM being accosted by a jogger.

logical_song said:

whoever came up with the idea - 'Hey let's find a beggar and give her 2p without checking how old she is.' - should be fired.

On that we are agreed

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

Socrates said:

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

Wouldn't most Kippers have been comfortable with Reagan ?

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem"

It depends. Ex-Labour voters might take some convincing that Reagonomics is in their best interests. Therein lies UKIP's future dilemma, of course. Can a party leadership comprised mainly of right-wingers frame a message beyond immigration that appeals to people who believe in nationalisation, strong trade unions and many of the other tenets of Old Labour?

UKIP should get behind a minimum wage rise.

SouthamObserver

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

Socrates said:

logical_song said:

MikeK said:

logical_song said:

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Good morning; up a bit earlier than is usual for me.

Everything about American elections and politics is back to front compared with the rest of the world.

The right is coloured red
The left is coloured blue

But the so called Right, the Republicans are now massaging their rightness, and the so called Left, the Democrats are getting fed up with their now anarchic liberalism.

This sort of situation can't last but it's what we have now.

American politics is interesting. It's also a bit odd.
Apart from the inverted colours (colors) everything is shifted to the right and religion plays an important part in their politics*.
Moderate Tories might well support Democrats.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/08/why_shouldnt_obamas_campaign_g046235.php

*But we may say goodbye to Pat Robertson this time.

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

The US signed up to NAFTA and the WTO under the Democrats. WTO membership obliges the US to accept rulings made by bodies that are based outside the US and which regularly force the US to change its domestic laws.

http://www.economyincrisis.net/sites/all/pdf/WTOstudyEIC.pdf

NAFTA has seen huge numbers of US businesses relocate to Mexico and others use it as a way to negotiate lower wage settlements:

http://www.epi.org/blog/naftas-impact-workers/

The WTO courts can't pass new laws which have primacy over US law. The European Union Parliament can. Any WTO courts have to obey by the very specific terms that the US has agreed to.

You know very well I support free trade agreements. The economic benefits are such that those working out could be compensated.

But WTO decisions do have primacy in the US.

Free trade is an interesting one. I am all for it, but I am not sure that it works with UKIP's message of curbing immigration to push up wages. All it will mean, surely, is that supermarkets, say, faced with higher costs as a result of increased wages paid by UK producers will just go elsewhere for their products. As you have noted, EU membership means that UK producers are protected to an extent from competition outside the EU.

Socrates

Indigo said:

Socrates said:

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

Wouldn't most Kippers have been comfortable with Reagan ?

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem"

Reagan is far further to the left than the current Republican party. He raised taxes several times. UKIP's biggest problem with him would be the amnesty he gave to illegal immigrants.

Innocent_Abroad

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

Indigo said:

Socrates said:

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. The Dems would never subjugate the US to a protectionist regional union with unlimited migration and primacy over domestic law. Meanwhile UKIP wouldn't ban abortion or scrap universal healthcare like the GOP.

Wouldn't most Kippers have been comfortable with Reagan ?

"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem"

It depends. Ex-Labour voters might take some convincing that Reagonomics is in their best interests. Therein lies UKIP's future dilemma, of course. Can a party leadership comprised mainly of right-wingers frame a message beyond immigration that appeals to people who believe in nationalisation, strong trade unions and many of the other tenets of Old Labour?

UKIP should get behind a minimum wage rise.

Except that wossname (who won that by-election in Essex) doesn't believe in a minimum wage (or the criminalization of slavery, if you want the full truth).

Scott_P

Freggles said:

I know Ed isn't graceful but look at that photo. You think that's a well planned, posed shot?

You think the photographer kneeling down to get a close up of the cup didn't know Ed was going to "spontaneously" give her some cash?

audreyanne

http://news.sky.com/story/1366257/henning-murder-turned-tide-on-is-recruitment

If true, and it seems to be backed up, this is a huge breakthrough in the fight against extremism.

(I'll ignore the inevitable tirade from Sorecrates)

Freggles

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

The photographers saw an opportunity to get a good shot. Simple as that.

It's amazing that several press photographers were able to get pin sharp shots of a completely spontaneous and random event by Ed, when there is not a single press shot of the PM being accosted by a jogger.

Except that the whole reason that incident happened was that Cameron stepped out on his own, otherwise it would have been 'jogger runs into photographer'
NOBODY would suggest him giving money to a foreign looking beggar as a photo op. You are on weak, weak form this morning.more sleep required?

Socrates

audreyanne said:

http://news.sky.com/story/1366257/henning-murder-turned-tide-on-is-recruitment

If true, and it seems to be backed up, this is a huge breakthrough in the fight against extremism.

(I'll ignore the inevitable tirade from Sorecrates)

No tirade - just a quote and single comment from me:

Mr Samuel said the "grotesque" beheading of US journalists James Foley and Steven Sotloff in August and September led the Muslim community to start to seriously question IS.

I guess they were ok with the genocide and mass rape then...

audreyanne

MikeK said:

I wish Palin would stand:

On Point leading the Conservative Wave to restore America pic.twitter.com/hnsCnoOFPP

— Panzer Leader (@ArmorCavSpin) November 3, 2014

Excellent post for confirming everything.

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

The photographers saw an opportunity to get a good shot. Simple as that.

It's amazing that several press photographers were able to get pin sharp shots of a completely spontaneous and random event by Ed, when there is not a single press shot of the PM being accosted by a jogger.

logical_song said:

whoever came up with the idea - 'Hey let's find a beggar and give her 2p without checking how old she is.' - should be fired.

On that we are agreed

I really don't think its a stunt. If you look at one of the photos the third photographer is seen running back down the street towards Ed as he's realised he's missing something.

Scott_P

Freggles said:

Except that the whole reason that incident happened was that Cameron stepped out on his own, otherwise it would have been 'jogger runs into photographer'
NOBODY would suggest him giving money to a foreign looking beggar as a photo op. You are on weak, weak form this morning.more sleep required?

Two completely spontaneous and random events occur

The one involving the PM is caught by 0 photographers.

The one involving the LOTO is caught by 3 (EDIT, and that was the only thing photographed on the entire trip as far as we can tell)

Yeah, that doesn't sound planned, at all.

TCPoliticalBetting

Socrates said:

logical_song said:

MikeK said:

logical_song said:

FiveThirtyEight's Senate predictions
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/

Good morning; up a bit earlier than is usual for me.

Everything about American elections and politics is back to front compared with the rest of the world.

The right is coloured red
The left is coloured blue

But the so called Right, the Republicans are now massaging their rightness, and the so called Left, the Democrats are getting fed up with their now anarchic liberalism.

This sort of situation can't last but it's what we have now.

American politics is interesting. It's also a bit odd.
Apart from the inverted colours (colors) everything is shifted to the right and religion plays an important part in their politics*.
Moderate Tories might well support Democrats.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/ten-miles-square/2013/08/why_shouldnt_obamas_campaign_g046235.php

*But we may say goodbye to Pat Robertson this time.

Us moderate UKippers also support the Democrats. .........

You are aware that the Democrats are more pro immigration than the Republicans and the Democrats want an amnesty for 12 million illegal immigrants in the USA?

Freggles

Scott_P said:

Freggles said:

I know Ed isn't graceful but look at that photo. You think that's a well planned, posed shot?

You think the photographer kneeling down to get a close up of the cup didn't know Ed was going to "spontaneously" give her some cash?

How do you know that happened before? In any case does it take long to kneel down?

Everyone is looking for a bacon sandwich moment. You think the Mail are interested in running pre planned Miliband puff pieces? It's not like we're taking about, say, Clegg and the Guardian

TCPoliticalBetting

Norman Baker further entrenches the image of the Lib Dem party as an untrustworthy bunch of duplicitous barstewards.

I also think that Theresa May is a poor Home Secretary for other reasons.

Now on R4 we have the next LD Leader Tim Farron piling on more smelly stuck. Dear Lib Dems, if you throw a lot of sh1t, a lot of it will stick to your hands.

Socrates

SouthamObserver said:

But WTO decisions do have primacy in the US.

Free trade is an interesting one. I am all for it, but I am not sure that it works with UKIP's message of curbing immigration to push up wages. All it will mean, surely, is that supermarkets, say, faced with higher costs as a result of increased wages paid by UK producers will just go elsewhere for their products. As you have noted, EU membership means that UK producers are protected to an extent from competition outside the EU.

WTO decisions do not form new law though. They simply enforce terms that have been agreed by the US executive and scrutinised and passed by the US Senate.

I appreciate the parallel you are making on free trade, and I agree there is a similar effect on low income wages. The differences are that, unlike immigration, free trade (a) pushed on per capita GDP (not just overall GDP), and (b) doesn't come with a whole bunch of other costs like providing more public services, having to build new infrastructure and housing stock, dealing with ethnic tension, etc.

CD13

The 2p or 70p thing is irrelevant, and whether it was planned or not is irrelevant. It was newsworthy only because Ed looked odd.

The vultures are circling because they smell roadkill.

As for the jogger ... shouldn't he have taken more care? Had Cameron been a frail pensioner, he could have ended up in hospital. Out of control joggers, mobility scooters and bikes - it's a hard life being a pedestrian.

Freggles

Scott_P said:

Freggles said:

Except that the whole reason that incident happened was that Cameron stepped out on his own, otherwise it would have been 'jogger runs into photographer'
NOBODY would suggest him giving money to a foreign looking beggar as a photo op. You are on weak, weak form this morning.more sleep required?

Two completely spontaneous and random events occur

The one involving the PM is caught by 0 photographers.

The one involving the LOTO is caught by 3 (EDIT, and that was the only thing photographed on the entire trip as far as we can tell)

Yeah, that doesn't sound planned, at all.

The one involving the PM was only possible BECAUSE there was no press scrum. I've made my point, now I'm going to stop shouting into the void and get ready for work

Indigo

Freggles said:

I know Ed isn't graceful but look at that photo. You think that's a well planned, posed shot?

The bacon sandwich was... look what happened there!

SouthamObserver

Socrates said:

SouthamObserver said:

But WTO decisions do have primacy in the US.

Free trade is an interesting one. I am all for it, but I am not sure that it works with UKIP's message of curbing immigration to push up wages. All it will mean, surely, is that supermarkets, say, faced with higher costs as a result of increased wages paid by UK producers will just go elsewhere for their products. As you have noted, EU membership means that UK producers are protected to an extent from competition outside the EU.

WTO decisions do not form new law though. They simply enforce terms that have been agreed by the US executive and scrutinised and passed by the US Senate.

I appreciate the parallel you are making on free trade, and I agree there is a similar effect on low income wages. The differences are that, unlike immigration, free trade (a) pushed on per capita GDP (not just overall GDP), and (b) doesn't come with a whole bunch of other costs like providing more public services, having to build new infrastructure and housing stock, dealing with ethnic tension, etc.

OK - cheers.

Scott_P

@iainmartin1: Something very murky about Norman Baker resignation. Is it the real Norman Baker? Home Office. MI5. See? #askingquestions

@DAaronovitch: How likely is that the real "Norman Baker" would ever have been given a ministerial post in the first place? He's been dead since 2006.

Scott_P

Indigo said:

The bacon sandwich was... look what happened there!

So was the T-shirt

foxinsoxuk

NickPalmer said:

Interesting thread and a thought-provoking piece by Bee. It's right that it's difficult to predict exactly which seats will prove ultra-marginal and there will always be some random-looking variation, but in the current tight situation it's also true that doing constituency surveys with a decent sample balanced to the local population tells us a lot. For instance, if it wasn't for Ashcroft, we'd still be factoring into our predictions a supposed incumbency bonus that seems not to exist this time. But the constituency polls in the tight marginals could do with a revisit in the New Year, perhaps with candidate names this time.

O/T: Looking ahead, does Norman Baker's resignation make him an interesting bet for next leader? I know Tories recoil from him but they don't get to vote. A leftish former minister who fell out with Theresa May over liberalisation sounds quite an attractive deal for a LibDem voter.

34/1 with Shadsy.

I suspect more likely to hold onto his seat than some too.

I see the Roma child beggar lives with her aunt and six other children, the Aunt registered as self employed Big Issue seller and gets housing benefit and tax credits as a result. How many others of the new jobs created by self employment are similar? It does seem open to abuse, and the truancy team need to get involved.

rottenborough

antifrank said:

Morning all. My latest post on the SNP's constituency odds is up:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-snp-battleground-in-november-2014.html

Very interesting and useful data as ever Antifrank. Not sure I will venture into betting on anything in Scotland due to limited knowledge, but this is a useful summary of where the value might be.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Very considerate of Baker to try and cheer up May after her Commons apology.

As the interesting article above indicates, marginals and safe seats aren't static/absolute terms, as exemplified by Scotland. I wonder if any other previously safe (and hitherto unnoticed) areas may drift into marginal status (whether that's to UKIP or between major parties).

Financier

OT

Tonight 8pm BBC 3. Clegg is answering questions on the programme: Free Speech

Indigo

Socrates said:

Reagan is far further to the left than the current Republican party. He raised taxes several times. UKIP's biggest problem with him would be the amnesty he gave to illegal immigrants.

That was kind of my point. Reagan reached out to blue collar (WWC) voters, the so-called Reagan Democrats in the way UKIP would like to pull in disenchanted Labour voters. In a similar way UKIP, even if it puts restrictions on immigration, is going to have to give some sort of amnesty to immigrants that are here because it will be unrealistic to remove them, they just won't talk about that very loudly before any election.

logical_song

Freggles said:

Scott_P said:

Freggles said:

Except that the whole reason that incident happened was that Cameron stepped out on his own, otherwise it would have been 'jogger runs into photographer'
NOBODY would suggest him giving money to a foreign looking beggar as a photo op. You are on weak, weak form this morning.more sleep required?

Two completely spontaneous and random events occur

The one involving the PM is caught by 0 photographers.

The one involving the LOTO is caught by 3 (EDIT, and that was the only thing photographed on the entire trip as far as we can tell)

Yeah, that doesn't sound planned, at all.

The one involving the PM was only possible BECAUSE there was no press scrum. I've made my point, now I'm going to stop shouting into the void and get ready for work

I know the feeling ;-)

Pulpstar

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Very considerate of Baker to try and cheer up May after her Commons apology.

As the interesting article above indicates, marginals and safe seats aren't static/absolute terms, as exemplified by Scotland. I wonder if any other previously safe (and hitherto unnoticed) areas may drift into marginal status (whether that's to UKIP or between major parties).

That is almost certain - I think seats near me will be UKIP-Labour marginals after this GE for instance. Your own seat could be a 3 way marginal.

Indigo

TCPoliticalBetting said:

I also think that Theresa May is a poor Home Secretary for other reasons.

She is certainly starting to make David Blunkett look liberal on Home Affairs. EAW, wanting to control people from posting on social media, wanting to extend eavesdropping powers, the list is long and depressing.

Easterross

Morning all and the question this morning is, does Norman Baker face being the MP for Lose next May rather than Lewes? I doubt a single Tory voter will shed a tear over his departure.

Meanwhile by far the most important decision today will be the EAT one on holiday pay. If it goes the way the trade unions hope, thousands and I mean thousands of their members in the private sector face losing their jobs and hundreds of thousands will see a huge fall in their pay as employers cut back on granting overtime on an ongoing basis.

In addition for all the smug city types, the ruling would apply to gym memberships, subsidised childcare, company cars and all the other perks London centric types take for granted so lots of them could lose their jobs too. The only solution will be emergency legislation to prevent any backdating.

TOPPING

NickPalmer said:

Interesting thread and a thought-provoking piece by Bee. It's right that it's difficult to predict exactly which seats will prove ultra-marginal and there will always be some random-looking variation, but in the current tight situation it's also true that doing constituency surveys with a decent sample balanced to the local population tells us a lot. For instance, if it wasn't for Ashcroft, we'd still be factoring into our predictions a supposed incumbency bonus that seems not to exist this time. But the constituency polls in the tight marginals could do with a revisit in the New Year, perhaps with candidate names this time.

O/T: Looking ahead, does Norman Baker's resignation make him an interesting bet for next leader? I know Tories recoil from him but they don't get to vote. A leftish former minister who fell out with Theresa May over liberalisation sounds quite an attractive deal for a LibDem voter.

I don't think yesterday's May vs Cooper exchange would have been the strangest thing to hear were both leading their parties.

TOPPING

Scott_P said:

logical_song said:

The photographers saw an opportunity to get a good shot. Simple as that.

It's amazing that several press photographers were able to get pin sharp shots of a completely spontaneous and random event by Ed, when there is not a single press shot of the PM being accosted by a jogger.

logical_song said:

whoever came up with the idea - 'Hey let's find a beggar and give her 2p without checking how old she is.' - should be fired.

On that we are agreed

"Ed kneels down to chat to said 14-yr old for a few moments, does a lot of nodding, intent listening, pondering...

...Ed tells one of his advisors to take details of the girl...

...Ed says to camera: we have a problem here, and I am going to find out what it is and what we can do about it. It is obviously not right that a 14-yr old girl is begging on the streets. It is typical of the Tory....' "

would have worked a lot better.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Pulpstar, I'm beginning to think that's increasingly possible. I still think the Conservatives stand the best chance of beating Balls, though.

Mr. Indigo, not heard that social media story. Politicians can be bloody stupid.

Indigo

Easterross said:

Meanwhile by far the most important decision today will be the EAT one on holiday pay. If it goes the way the trade unions hope, thousands and I mean thousands of their members in the private sector face losing their jobs and hundreds of thousands will see a huge fall in their pay as employers cut back on granting overtime on an ongoing basis.

Is there a reference for that, sounds alarming. Is it asking for O/T to be used when calculating holiday pay or something ?

Carnyx

Ninoinoz said:

kle4 said:

[snip]

And from those who are not. If people of religious conviction want the government to spend more on or offer relief to their particular faith they can vote accordingly if they think that isn't being done I guess, and if other people want no tax money being spent or relief offered to religious institutions they can vote accordingly as well, but the government has no obligation to spend a lot on things religious people of X would like just because that's where the money partly came from. They're free to do it, but they can choose to review that or be lobbied by others to review that with no problem, it's a free country.

No, I am asking that religious institutions are funded without discrimination to the same level as other institutions or organisations.

The public treasury isn't a Guardianista slush fund, as those on the Left increasingly think.

FPT: this morning there is a report in the Herald about a new study to see to what extent religion [edit] has an influence in the law system of Scotland. This is particularly interesting as the Church of Scotland has been disestablished for many decades. The Humanist Society is funding it but it will be interesting to see the conclusions.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/religious-privilege-study-first-of-its-kind-since-victorian-times.25774403

Socrates

Indigo said:

Socrates said:

Reagan is far further to the left than the current Republican party. He raised taxes several times. UKIP's biggest problem with him would be the amnesty he gave to illegal immigrants.

That was kind of my point. Reagan reached out to blue collar (WWC) voters, the so-called Reagan Democrats in the way UKIP would like to pull in disenchanted Labour voters. In a similar way UKIP, even if it puts restrictions on immigration, is going to have to give some sort of amnesty to immigrants that are here because it will be unrealistic to remove them, they just won't talk about that very loudly before any election.

We already have an amnesty system. Under Labour if you could remain undetected for seven years you got ILR. The Coalition have increased it to 20, but it remains.

Frankly I think it is a very poor idea due to the incentives it creates. It's the main area I disagree with the Dems in the USA.

hucks67

What are the pros and cons of the Lib Dems staying in coalition all the way to election day ?

Pros - Gaining from further budget measures associated with Lib Dems, having access to government records in particular The Treasury up to the election. the profile of being in government with extra media attention, showing that the Lib Dems are reliable coalition partners.

Cons - Lib Dems will find it difficult to distance themselves from Tory polices, they will find it difficult to claim succcesses in government which can only be shared with Tories, the Lib Dems cannot start to criticise government policies which they had voted through in parliament, if they left government it means extra Tory ministers would be created.

Just some pros and cons, but there will be many to add to the list. I am not sure personally that it would be a good idea for either Lib Dems or the Tories for the coalition to continue beyond the end of the year. As it gets closer to the election, it is going to be difficult to be in coalition, while attacking the policies of their partners. The media will enjoy concentrating on the divisions between the parties and also the divisions within each party. There are large numbers of Lib Dems and also Tories who don't like some coalition policies. At the moment they can't criticise what they have voted for, but near to the election this will be more difficult to avoid doing.

bigjohnowls

Todays BJESUS

4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 184 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

OblitusSumMe

logical_song said:

Indigo said:

Freggles said:

Has anyone recanted their criticism of Ed Miliband for allegedly giving 2p to a beggar when the beggar has said it was 70p and he was the only one in the group to give?
Oh wait, it was just an excuse to criticise Ed and any pretext will do....

No, because the 2p was besides the point. It was an obviously posed stunt, one of the photographers is even in some of the shots. Even with it being a posed stunt he still managed to look awkward and ill at ease. Even if he had looked suave and debonair it doesn't alter the fact that he was encouraging begging contrary to the Vagrancy Act (as mentioned by the GMP), and the girl was under aged and should be in school. He also managed to open the can of worms of homes full of immigrants pulling in more benefits than pensioners that have being paying contributions their whole working life - but apart from that it went quite well I think...

Probably a little unfair. OMG, do I ignore this beggar? Think of the headlines. Lose-lose situation.

I'd expect that a politician would be able to talk to the beggar, find out a bit about them, engage with reality.

Indigo

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indigo, not heard that social media story. Politicians can be bloody stupid.

"Theresa May to announce new Extremist Disruption Orders to strengthen counter-terrorism if the Tories win the next general election"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11129474/Extremists-to-have-Facebook-and-Twitter-vetted-by-anti-terror-police.html

and then as coincidence would have it, we get the new chief of GCHQ in the papers today

"Technology giants such as Facebook and Twitter have become "the command and control networks of choice" for terrorists and criminals but are "in denial" about the scale of the problem, the new head of GCHQ has said"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11206398/Britains-spy-chief-says-US-tech-firms-aid-terrorism.html

Easterross

Indigo it is a triple conjoined action before the EAT. It is item 2 on Sky News after the Norman Baker resignation. The biggest problem is backdating. The European Court has suggested to 1998. Problem is employers need only keep PAYE records for 6 years so how will they work out claims? Using Mystic Meg?

The problem was created by the Labour Government which apparently failed to correctly interpret its own law. The Unions argument is that holiday pay should include the average of all pay not just basic pay. I have a client which relies heavily on overtime. We could be facing a £100,000+ bill for backpay. My clients bought over a bankrupt Scottish company 3 years ago so its liability would mainly arise through TUPE. There is a possibility the North American parent company would simply just close the factory putting 70 people on the dole.

Robert_Of_Sheffield

***US Elections***

One of the Democrat candidates has been killed in a traffic accident - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/03/house-candidate-killed_n_6097496.html

He was standing for a seat in Oklahoma, and was expected to lose. Under US election law, what happens next?

TCPoliticalBetting

bigjohnowls said:

Todays BJESUS
4.11.14 LAB 320 (322) CON 268(269) LD 31(33) UKIP 2(2) Others 29 (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 184 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

How many SNP seats is your model forecasting? One betting market pivots on 20.5 .

OblitusSumMe

RobD's latest opinion poll Tory lead graph has it as a dead heat, with Labour continuing their recent relatively sharp decline.

Socrates

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

***US Elections***

One of the Democrat candidates has been killed in a traffic accident - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/03/house-candidate-killed_n_6097496.html

He was standing for a seat in Oklahoma, and was expected to lose. Under US election law, what happens next?

Would be down to Oklahoma law, not US law.

Innocent_Abroad

Easterross said:

Indigo it is a triple conjoined action before the EAT. It is item 2 on Sky News after the Norman Baker resignation. The biggest problem is backdating. The European Court has suggested to 1998. Problem is employers need only keep PAYE records for 6 years so how will they work out claims? Using Mystic Meg?

The problem was created by the Labour Government which apparently failed to correctly interpret its own law. The Unions argument is that holiday pay should include the average of all pay not just basic pay. I have a client which relies heavily on overtime. We could be facing a £100,000+ bill for backpay. My clients bought over a bankrupt Scottish company 3 years ago so its liability would mainly arise through TUPE. There is a possibility the North American parent company would simply just close the factory putting 70 people on the dole.

They will work out old claims by negotiating with the Unions (the Unions hope). Or else employers just lock out everyone who won't accept a zero hours contract.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Indigo, thanks very much for the links. I have mixed feelings about the proposal. It's hard to decide whether, on the one hand, it's incredibly stupid and unworkable or, on the other, it's an affront to liberty and wide open to abuse by the police/politicians, as we've seen with RIPA being used against the press.

For ****'s sake. Are they going to have a special agent watching every single lunatic in need of a shave and a shag in case they try tweeting something?

The other day I was pushed for time, but tempted to 'threaten' to crucify Mr. Eagles on Twitter for his silliness. Not hard to imagine someone (or even two friends mocking one another) getting barred from doing so.

Socrates

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Indigo, thanks very much for the links. I have mixed feelings about the proposal. It's hard to decide whether, on the one hand, it's incredibly stupid and unworkable or, on the other, it's an affront to liberty and wide open to abuse by the police/politicians, as we've seen with RIPA being used against the press.

For ****'s sake. Are they going to have a special agent watching every single lunatic in need of a shave and a shag in case they try tweeting something?

The other day I was pushed for time, but tempted to 'threaten' to crucify Mr. Eagles on Twitter for his silliness. Not hard to imagine someone (or even two friends mocking one another) getting barred from doing so.

You realise that the Tories will keep on doing this sort of thing until it starts costing them votes, right?

TCPoliticalBetting

OblitusSumMe said:

RobD's latest opinion poll Tory lead graph has it as a dead heat, with Labour continuing their recent relatively sharp decline.

This is heading to a <29% Lab GE which would be in line with every (I believe) Lab vote in the second GE after losing power. An odd phenomenon. But 25% to 28% does not look an impossibility under "normal" opposition slides. Of course if LAB's vote share is very efficient, they could be biggest party with 28% of the vote.

eek

Indigo said:

Easterross said:

Meanwhile by far the most important decision today will be the EAT one on holiday pay. If it goes the way the trade unions hope, thousands and I mean thousands of their members in the private sector face losing their jobs and hundreds of thousands will see a huge fall in their pay as employers cut back on granting overtime on an ongoing basis.

Is there a reference for that, sounds alarming. Is it asking for O/T to be used when calculating holiday pay or something ?

yep see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29884867

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Socrates, my priority is to cost Balls his seat.

However, this does weigh in the scales against the Conservatives.