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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s collapse in the polls is NOT because of a fall-off in Lib Dem switching

The above monthly averages are based on analysis of data from every single Populus online poll since the firm started its twice weekly series in July 2013 and shows the proportion, before the don’t knows are netted off, of 2010 LDs now saying they will vote Labour.

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Indigo

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

CarlottaVance

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

Indigo

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I think they are unfashionable with the establishment, and survey organisations are seen as part of the establishment. There certainly are vocal kippers, the majority of which I would speculate are ex Tory, but I think there are a lot of fellow travellers, especially of the WWC ex Labour persuasion who possibly feel its not something they would admit to their mates, especially the UKIP voter who is holding his nose because he really feels more at home in another party but despairs of them having a solid policy on anything, or despairs of them ever representing the working classes again ;-)

MikeSmithson

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I agree with that. One thing you cannot accuse UKIP voters of being is shy. In fact it is the other way

edmundintokyo

What we’ve seen is a general drift downwards which seems to have been triggered by more switching to UKIP, and a higher level of former voters saying don’t know.

OK, so theories for what's going on here? I'll start:
1) Voters who backed Gordon Brown tuning in and deciding Ed is crap.
2) Not much actual left-right politics going on recently and what there has been is UKIP vs Con, so voters are giving their opinions on that instead.

If it's (1) it'll get worse for Labour. If it's (2) it'll get better.

SouthamObserver

Not sure I buy the shy UKIPer line. UKIP voters are loud and proud. What seems to be happening is twofold - big switch to SNP in Scotland; increased apathy/disillusionment in England. There is no positive case to vote Labour. Ed has ensured the party's only hope is Not Being The Tories. Same as in 2010 really, but without Scotland sewn up.

reviddiver

Mid term elections tend to be a straw poll on the current government. A General election is to select the next government and PM. The British have instinctively understood this difference. Given the current low opinion of Milliband I cannot see how Labour can be expected to do better than the Tories. In modern history of Western democracies it has been know for a party in charge of a growing economy to loose a GE or a party with the most competent leader to loose but I don't think it has happened to a party with and growing economy AND the most competent leader.

Innocent_Abroad

My prediction's looking good. Just to remind you: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23.

foxinsoxuk

edmundintokyo said:

What we’ve seen is a general drift downwards which seems to have been triggered by more switching to UKIP, and a higher level of former voters saying don’t know.

OK, so theories for what's going on here? I'll start:
1) Voters who backed Gordon Brown tuning in and deciding Ed is crap.
2) Not much actual left-right politics going on recently and what there has been is UKIP vs Con, so voters are giving their opinions on that instead.

If it's (1) it'll get worse for Labour. If it's (2) it'll get better.

I am not sure that the last line is true. Labours response to UKIP has been both vague and unconvincing. Further scrutiny of this is not going to help them much.

Ed's blank sheet of paper has been too blank too long.

audreyanne

MikeSmithson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I agree with that. One thing you cannot accuse UKIP voters of being is shy. In fact it is the other way

Yes but I think those are the vocal protesters. All protest groups by definition are loud.

Mainstream people I've spoken to who are prepared to admit to voting UKIP have been sheepish. I agree with the assertion that UKIP is unfashionable for Labour supporters.

Charles

Innocent_Abroad said:

My prediction's looking good. Just to remind you: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23.

My predictions (from 24 months ago are even better):

- Labour's weaknesses being (1) Scotland - EdM not Scottish (2) England - "hold to nurse"/"Tory's are baby-eaters" voters in 2010 realising they're actually not

- Labour's strength being Red Liberals

Feels to me that this election will fundamentally be a rerun of 2010 with the difference being (1) Scotland and (2) LibDem collapse. I suspect LibDem collapse will end up a broad wash in terms of seats

What I haven't factored in yet is UKIP in the Midlands. I had them pegged at 9-11% for the GE, but they could be stronger than that. I suspect, but I'm thinking that could actually help the Tories in the Midland marginals as UKIP voters are the sort that Labour needs to win

I'm more confident, now, of Tory Largest Party (no majority) than I've been in a while

CarlottaVance

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I think they are unfashionable with the establishment, and survey organisations are seen as part of the establishment. There certainly are vocal kippers, the majority of which I would speculate are ex Tory, but I think there are a lot of fellow travellers, especially of the WWC ex Labour persuasion who possibly feel its not something they would admit to their mates, especially the UKIP voter who is holding his nose because he really feels more at home in another party but despairs of them having a solid policy on anything, or despairs of them ever representing the working classes again ;-)

Surely it's their rejection of (a widely perceived to have failed) establishment that makes UKIP both popular and fashionable?

I can see a Guardian reader wishing to conceal his UKIP voting intentions (and I doubt there are too many of those) but beyond that UKIP has now easily got the critical mass in terms of popular support to be seen as a "major" and not a (nutty) fringe party (what ever its opponents might wish)?

audreyanne

Innocent_Abroad said:

My prediction's looking good. Just to remind you: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23.

23% for UKIP? That isn't supported by midterm opinion polls, so you really think they will go up when we get to the real thing? Well, you're welcome to your view

CarlottaVance

MikeSmithson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

One thing you cannot accuse UKIP voters of being is shy. In fact it is the other way

Rather like the Scot Nats in that regard.....as the old saw goes "I wish I were as certain of anything as they are of everything....."

audreyanne

reviddiver said:

Mid term elections tend to be a straw poll on the current government. A General election is to select the next government and PM. The British have instinctively understood this difference. Given the current low opinion of Milliband I cannot see how Labour can be expected to do better than the Tories. In modern history of Western democracies it has been know for a party in charge of a growing economy to lose a GE or a party with the most competent leader to lose but I don't think it has happened to a party with and growing economy AND the most competent leader.

Quite.

Welcome and an excellent, spot on, first post.

Indigo

Charles said:

I'm more confident, now, of Tory Largest Party (no majority) than I've been in a while

Which could leave us in the delicious position of Tories being half a dozen short of a majority with 10-12 UKIP and a similar number of LD as possible partners either in coalition or as a C&S deal. How long will Cameron last if he goes for a coalition with the LDs when there is a possible deal with UKIP in the offing, the Tories would implode!

DavidL

foxinsoxuk said:

edmundintokyo said:

What we’ve seen is a general drift downwards which seems to have been triggered by more switching to UKIP, and a higher level of former voters saying don’t know.

OK, so theories for what's going on here? I'll start:
1) Voters who backed Gordon Brown tuning in and deciding Ed is crap.
2) Not much actual left-right politics going on recently and what there has been is UKIP vs Con, so voters are giving their opinions on that instead.

If it's (1) it'll get worse for Labour. If it's (2) it'll get better.

I am not sure that the last line is true. Labours response to UKIP has been both vague and unconvincing. Further scrutiny of this is not going to help them much.

Ed's blank sheet of paper has been too blank too long.

Remember; "the blank sheet has become the vacant stare". I was quite pleased with that one.

I think quite a number of us have been saying this for a while. Mike has been proved absolutely right about the Lib Dem switchers: these are indeed the guys who will be turning out the lights when it is all over.

But the vulnerability of Labour arises in Brown's 29%. The ones Mandleson so skilfully persuaded that a Tory government was going to be an apocalypse. It hasn't worked out that way and some of this group are looking for positive reasons to vote for Ed. Good luck with that.

Innocent_Abroad

Interesting, eh? Audrey and Carlotta start from much the same place and arrive at diametrically opposed views on UKIP.

If Charles is right about the Midlands, we're looking at a Tory majority, not merely largest overall party. Expect Clegg's contribution to the election debate to be: "the reason the Tories didn't eat any babies is because I stopped them".

MonikerDiCanio

When the inevitable LibDem recovery takes off, Labour will be in real trouble.

reviddiver

audreyanne said:

reviddiver said:

Mid term elections tend to be a straw poll on the current government. A General election is to select the next government and PM. The British have instinctively understood this difference. Given the current low opinion of Milliband I cannot see how Labour can be expected to do better than the Tories. In modern history of Western democracies it has been know for a party in charge of a growing economy to lose a GE or a party with the most competent leader to lose but I don't think it has happened to a party with and growing economy AND the most competent leader.

Quite.

Welcome and an excellent, spot on, first post.

Thanks :-)

edmundintokyo

foxinsoxuk said:

edmundintokyo said:

What we’ve seen is a general drift downwards which seems to have been triggered by more switching to UKIP, and a higher level of former voters saying don’t know.

OK, so theories for what's going on here? I'll start:
1) Voters who backed Gordon Brown tuning in and deciding Ed is crap.
2) Not much actual left-right politics going on recently and what there has been is UKIP vs Con, so voters are giving their opinions on that instead.

If it's (1) it'll get worse for Labour. If it's (2) it'll get better.

I am not sure that the last line is true. Labours response to UKIP has been both vague and unconvincing. Further scrutiny of this is not going to help them much.

Ed's blank sheet of paper has been too blank too long.

I don't mean that they'll have a good response to UKIP, I mean that the dynamic of an election campaign focus on points of conflict between Lab and Con, like the Bedroom Tax or whatever. This will tend to firm up the "Basically agree with a major party but they're a bit meh" vote, at the expense of UKIP and Don't Know.

audreyanne

Indigo said:

Charles said:

I'm more confident, now, of Tory Largest Party (no majority) than I've been in a while

Which could leave us in the delicious position of Tories being half a dozen short of a majority with 10-12 UKIP and a similar number of LD as possible partners either in coalition or as a C&S deal. How long will Cameron last if he goes for a coalition with the LDs when there is a possible deal with UKIP in the offing, the Tories would implode!

10-12 UKIP MPs? I'm loving this.

MonikerDiCanio said:

When the inevitable LibDem recovery takes off, Labour will be in real trouble.

Simon Hughes made much the same point yesterday saying that polling in Bermondsey suggests the LibDems are still winning there.

People underestimate the LibDems at their peril. They may be low in the polls now but they get their votes out where they are most needed, which is likely to be the opposite of UKIP who will spread thinly and be lucky to get a handful of seats.

audreyanne

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I think they are unfashionable with the establishment, and survey organisations are seen as part of the establishment. There certainly are vocal kippers, the majority of which I would speculate are ex Tory, but I think there are a lot of fellow travellers, especially of the WWC ex Labour persuasion who possibly feel its not something they would admit to their mates, especially the UKIP voter who is holding his nose because he really feels more at home in another party but despairs of them having a solid policy on anything, or despairs of them ever representing the working classes again ;-)

Surely it's their rejection of (a widely perceived to have failed) establishment that makes UKIP both popular and fashionable?

I can see a Guardian reader wishing to conceal his UKIP voting intentions (and I doubt there are too many of those) but beyond that UKIP has now easily got the critical mass in terms of popular support to be seen as a "major" and not a (nutty) fringe party (what ever its opponents might wish)?

I think they're popular with people who don't normally vote: the 'I don't care for that lot' brigade. This was borne out by Mike's analysis of polling in R&S yesterday. Getting those malcontents actually to vote, when they don't normally, will be a very different matter.

DavidL

UKIP have certainly reached the point where they are doing as much damage to Labour as they are to the Tories, at least at the margins. Think how many polls there have been recently when any movement in their support has been the diametric opposite of what is happening to Labour.

I also still hang on to my theory (despite the Ashcroft marginal polling) that if the Tories are doing as well as they did the last time and UKIP is eating into the mountains of votes in their safe seats there is room for them to do better in the marginals in the midlands and eastern England and for their vote to become more efficient. If they do increase their support by the extra 5% they need by election day I expect this to be disproportionately in those seats.

Labour have London. After that it is all looking a bit of a struggle.

reviddiver

audreyanne said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

My prediction's looking good. Just to remind you: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23.

23% for UKIP? That isn't supported by midterm opinion polls, so you really think they will go up when we get to the real thing? Well, you're welcome to your view

The battle for MPs will be between Lab & Tory at the GE. At the moment, with 6 months to go Lab are trending down at about 1-2% a month. Tories are trending up at about 0.5% a month. Since the two parties are about even at the moment and if the trends continue the expected difference between the parties at the GE will be 9%.

The prediction of Lab 25 Con 35 is therefore looks good.

logical_song

audreyanne said:

Indigo said:

Charles said:

I'm more confident, now, of Tory Largest Party (no majority) than I've been in a while

Which could leave us in the delicious position of Tories being half a dozen short of a majority with 10-12 UKIP and a similar number of LD as possible partners either in coalition or as a C&S deal. How long will Cameron last if he goes for a coalition with the LDs when there is a possible deal with UKIP in the offing, the Tories would implode!

10-12 UKIP MPs? I'm loving this.

MonikerDiCanio said:

When the inevitable LibDem recovery takes off, Labour will be in real trouble.

Simon Hughes made much the same point yesterday saying that polling in Bermondsey suggests the LibDems are still winning there.

People underestimate the LibDems at their peril. They may be low in the polls now but they get their votes out where they are most needed, which is likely to be the opposite of UKIP who will spread thinly and be lucky to get a handful of seats.

UKIP: 2 or 3 seats. LibDems 27 to 35 seats. And the difference they make in a coalition is double their number.

Charles

Indigo said:

Charles said:

I'm more confident, now, of Tory Largest Party (no majority) than I've been in a while

Which could leave us in the delicious position of Tories being half a dozen short of a majority with 10-12 UKIP and a similar number of LD as possible partners either in coalition or as a C&S deal. How long will Cameron last if he goes for a coalition with the LDs when there is a possible deal with UKIP in the offing, the Tories would implode!

Farage for International Development Secretary?

logical_song

audreyanne said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

My prediction's looking good. Just to remind you: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23.

23% for UKIP? That isn't supported by midterm opinion polls, so you really think they will go up when we get to the real thing? Well, you're welcome to your view

A friend of mine used to say:
'Everyone's entitled to their own opinion'
then in a quieter voice
'no matter how stupid it might be'.

CarlottaVance

Appeals if posted before - but Badger is stepping down:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2817968/Former-Chancellor-Alistair-Darling-announces-step-Parliament-2015-General-Election.html

CD13

I think voting Ukip is unfashionable in some quarters. It's akin to admitting you're thick, and some do immediately start to justify themselves in a way that other party supporters don't do.

Mr Smithson, what would be the result if you suddenly admitted to your friends that you're switched to Ukip? Would they smile sympathetically but worry that senility had set in? I suspect so.

In general, it may be rare in Leicester Square but not ...

DavidL

audreyanne said:

Indigo said:

Charles said:

I'm more confident, now, of Tory Largest Party (no majority) than I've been in a while

Which could leave us in the delicious position of Tories being half a dozen short of a majority with 10-12 UKIP and a similar number of LD as possible partners either in coalition or as a C&S deal. How long will Cameron last if he goes for a coalition with the LDs when there is a possible deal with UKIP in the offing, the Tories would implode!

10-12 UKIP MPs? I'm loving this.

MonikerDiCanio said:

When the inevitable LibDem recovery takes off, Labour will be in real trouble.

Simon Hughes made much the same point yesterday saying that polling in Bermondsey suggests the LibDems are still winning there.

People underestimate the LibDems at their peril. They may be low in the polls now but they get their votes out where they are most needed, which is likely to be the opposite of UKIP who will spread thinly and be lucky to get a handful of seats.

If the Lib Dems double their support from here they will still be down nearly 10% points from the last election. I agree they are good at getting a big bang for their bucks but that is going to hurt. To put it into perspective we are talking about them getting 2.8m fewer votes than the 6.8m they got the last time. Near enough 5K a constituency. Ouch.

No_Offence_Alan

DavidL said:

.

Labour have London. After that it is all looking a bit of a struggle.

And Wales.

DavidL

No_Offence_Alan said:

DavidL said:

.

Labour have London. After that it is all looking a bit of a struggle.

And Wales.

Will they not suffer from the pretty awful record of the Welsh Assembly there? Wales is going to be last man standing and I accept someone has to win. It might well be Labour I suppose.

anotherDave

audreyanne said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

My prediction's looking good. Just to remind you: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23.

23% for UKIP? That isn't supported by midterm opinion polls, so you really think they will go up when we get to the real thing? Well, you're welcome to your view

The latest Survation gave UKIP 25%. When ComRes prompted for UKIP they got 24%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014

I think as the election approaches the other pollsters are likely to start being more even handed to UKIP. Treating them differently to Con/Lab/LD is based on the assumption that their numbers will fizzle to 3%.

Financier

The redLDs are just part of the picture. As they are declining and not returning to LD, then where have they been going? Not so much to the DKs but more to Green, UKIP and Cons. It has to be noted that much of the Green surge has come from the youngest age-group - will they revert to LD?

However at the same time, the the Labour 2010 VI retention has dropped significantly with extra votes going to UKIP, Greens and Cons, whilst in Scotland Labour is out of favour and losing votes to SNP.

So a rate determining step could be that after the next by-election (UKIP gained a spike after Clacton) how far can the Cons claw back their leakage to UKIP? If they can get even 6-10% back (of the current 20), then Labour could be in deep trouble.

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

Appeals if posted before - but Badger is stepping down:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2817968/Former-Chancellor-Alistair-Darling-announces-step-Parliament-2015-General-Election.html

Generally bad news. A decent man IMHO with a good sense of proportion and wit. Sometimes you can read too much into one person's decisions but this doesn't exactly offer a vote of confidence in Ed's Labour.

SquareRoot

Time for a thread about Bercow's chances of hanging onto the Speaker's chair. He really is an odious little man. I am amazed MP's put up with him.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2818275/ANDREW-PIERCE-Petty-minded-Bercow-left-looking-small.html

FormerToryOrange

Is this the first admission of what we all knew all along; that the "Labour's firewall" schtick was a steaming pile?

audreyanne

logical_song said:

audreyanne said:

Indigo said:

Charles said:

I'm more confident, now, of Tory Largest Party (no majority) than I've been in a while

Which could leave us in the delicious position of Tories being half a dozen short of a majority with 10-12 UKIP and a similar number of LD as possible partners either in coalition or as a C&S deal. How long will Cameron last if he goes for a coalition with the LDs when there is a possible deal with UKIP in the offing, the Tories would implode!

10-12 UKIP MPs? I'm loving this.

MonikerDiCanio said:

When the inevitable LibDem recovery takes off, Labour will be in real trouble.

Simon Hughes made much the same point yesterday saying that polling in Bermondsey suggests the LibDems are still winning there.

People underestimate the LibDems at their peril. They may be low in the polls now but they get their votes out where they are most needed, which is likely to be the opposite of UKIP who will spread thinly and be lucky to get a handful of seats.

UKIP: 2 or 3 seats. LibDems 27 to 35 seats. And the difference they make in a coalition is double their number.

Yep I agree: think that could be very close to the May 8th picture. Perhaps LibDems 20+ but I agree with those sorts of respective figures.

foxinsoxuk

CD13 said:

I think voting Ukip is unfashionable in some quarters. It's akin to admitting you're thick, and some do immediately start to justify themselves in a way that other party supporters don't do.

Mr Smithson, what would be the result if you suddenly admitted to your friends that you're switched to Ukip? Would they smile sympathetically but worry that senility had set in? I suspect so.

In general, it may be rare in Leicester Square but not ...

I do not think kippers are thick. Finally with Carswell they have someone with intellect and vision near the top, as a counterpoint to people like Bours, who is the stupidest politician that I have seen on television.

Whether that Carswell intellect can make sense of the UKIP position on many issues without antagonising Farage is yet to be seen.

Peter_the_Punter

For those who have been following the Great Dover Bongo Bongo Land Marf Cartoon Scandal, the UKIP Candidate David Little will be appearing at 8.15 am on Radio Kent to explain himself.

http://www.dover-express.co.uk/Ukip-s-Little-Bono-Bongo-map-storm/story-23953024-detail/story.html?afterReg=Y&dwrMeth=addComment

For those new to the story, Little put up on his Facebook page a copy of Marf's 'UKIP Map of the World' cartoon. Charlie Elphicke, MP for Dover, didn't think it was funny. Cue amusing spat, and articles in The Sunday People and Dover Express.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ukip-candidate-posts-bongo-bongo-4550183

http://www.dover-express.co.uk/Ukip-s-Little-Bono-Bongo-map-storm/story-23953024-detail/story.html?afterReg=Y&dwrMeth=addComment

Ok, program starts in eight minutes. I have my popcorn ready.

CD13

Audreyanne,

If you were a Kipper and worked for the BBC, would you "come out"? Or if you worked for Rotherham council? Or if you worked in a white collar job for the Civil Service/Local Government? Or in HR?

foxinsoxuk

Financier said:

The redLDs are just part of the picture. As they are declining and not returning to LD, then where have they been going? Not so much to the DKs but more to Green, UKIP and Cons. It has to be noted that much of the Green surge has come from the youngest age-group - will they revert to LD?

However at the same time, the the Labour 2010 VI retention has dropped significantly with extra votes going to UKIP, Greens and Cons, whilst in Scotland Labour is out of favour and losing votes to SNP.

So a rate determining step could be that after the next by-election (UKIP gained a spike after Clacton) how far can the Cons claw back their leakage to UKIP? If they can get even 6-10% back (of the current 20), then Labour could be in deep trouble.

I cannot see the LibDems recapturing the student/youth vote for a while. It was won with the emphasis on education and antiwar campaigns, lost over tuition fees and being in government. Greenism appeals to a lot of the young. Foxinsoxjr voted Green in the last election.

FormerToryOrange

SouthamObserver said:

Not sure I buy the shy UKIPer line. UKIP voters are loud and proud. What seems to be happening is twofold - big switch to SNP in Scotland; increased apathy/disillusionment in England. There is no positive case to vote Labour. Ed has ensured the party's only hope is Not Being The Tories. Same as in 2010 really, but without Scotland sewn up.

What is happening is the classic swingback which comes along dependably every parliament. Whether or not the Lib Dems will benefit to an extent remains to be seen. I have always thought they will do, and will end up with a vote share of around 10-12% rather than the 7 or 8 they generally poll.

One point of correction: I can assure you that Labour have Scotland sewn up for the 2015 election. They are in terminal decline here, but their lead in virtually all seats they hold is just too large to be wiped out in a single election. They will probably lose 2 or 3 seats net - 5 or 6 on a very bad night. The Tories are only likely to gain 1 - 2 if they're doing well or 3 if they have an absolute blinder. So worst case scenario for Labour is to have a 35-4 lead over the Tories in Scotland, and most likely is a 38-2 lead.

One thing that will be interesting though, is after 2015, how many of Labour's currently safe as houses seats in Scotland will have become marginal - most of them I expect.

CD13

Perhaps Douglas Carswell will wear a t-shirt with "This is what a Kipper looks like".

AlastairMeeks

Morning all. As my catch-up service for the weekday crowd, here are my posts on odds in the constituency markets from a Lib Dem perspective, a Conservative perspective and a Labour perspective:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-lib-dem-battleground-in-november.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-conservative-battleground-in.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-labour-battleground-in-october-2014.html

Today's offering looking from UKIP's perspective will follow shortly after Ladbrokes reopen their markets online later this morning.

CarlottaVance

After Maureen Lipman.....another Luvvie Labour's Lost:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2818284/I-ll-leave-UK-Labour-wins-election-bring-mansion-tax-says-Griff-Rhys-Jones.html

audreyanne

anotherDave said:

audreyanne said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

My prediction's looking good. Just to remind you: Con 35, Lab 25, UKIP 23.

23% for UKIP? That isn't supported by midterm opinion polls, so you really think they will go up when we get to the real thing? Well, you're welcome to your view

The latest Survation gave UKIP 25%.

One poll out of kilter with others putting them in the teens. And when you say 'latest' you mean 10th October with fieldwork in the Carswell Clacton heyday.

Of the 377 opinion polls this year, 372 have put UKIP below 20%, sometimes in single figures:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2

CD13

They used to say that if you lived in Britain, you were never more than six feet away from a rat. Ukip could borrow that phrase.

For the avoidance of doubt, although I'm not a Kipper supporter, I did vote for them in the Euros to send a message. I support the general idea of a trading bloc, but the EU does need reform now. The LD's message is coming over as "My Europe, right or wrong."

audreyanne

CD13 said:

Audreyanne,

If you were a Kipper and worked for the BBC, would you "come out"? Or if you worked for Rotherham council? Or if you worked in a white collar job for the Civil Service/Local Government? Or in HR?

Good question(s).

Definitely not. In all those scenarios I'd be too ashamed.

Poppett

Er Mike when you say "used to " wasn't that about a week ago !!

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Entertaining but not profitable race, yesterday. Post-race will probably be up tomorrow. Won't do an Early Thoughts for Brazil, as it starts in about four days.

OldKingCole

The last couple of “political” discussions I have had with young post-grads have been surprisingly positive about the LD’s. Support for better mental health care seems popular (tiny sample, admittedly) and of course thier “major review of drugs policy" has always ben a plus. While generally I agree with Dr Fox about the attrraction of the Greens I do expect (have a folorn hope) that the LD’s will come out with something significant after Christmas.

audreyanne

CarlottaVance said:

After Maureen Lipman.....another Luvvie Labour's Lost:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2818284/I-ll-leave-UK-Labour-wins-election-bring-mansion-tax-says-Griff-Rhys-Jones.html

Interesting. He cites the Mansion Tax. This is yet another example of why all elections come down to individuals asking themselves how they will be better or worse off (which includes services like the NHS).

I 'feel' the media have become notably more hostile to EdM since the Mansion Tax surfaced. I said at the time he was shooting the very people he needs onside. There are a lot of important people in the media who even if they don't yet have £2m properties, don't want to think that they might get hammered.

It's the stupidest piece of electoral suicide since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto for unilateral nuclear disarmament.

isam

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I think they are unfashionable with the establishment, and survey organisations are seen as part of the establishment. There certainly are vocal kippers, the majority of which I would speculate are ex Tory, but I think there are a lot of fellow travellers, especially of the WWC ex Labour persuasion who possibly feel its not something they would admit to their mates, especially the UKIP voter who is holding his nose because he really feels more at home in another party but despairs of them having a solid policy on anything, or despairs of them ever representing the working classes again ;-)

Surely it's their rejection of (a widely perceived to have failed) establishment that makes UKIP both popular and fashionable?

I can see a Guardian reader wishing to conceal his UKIP voting intentions (and I doubt there are too many of those) but beyond that UKIP has now easily got the critical mass in terms of popular support to be seen as a "major" and not a (nutty) fringe party (what ever its opponents might wish)?

I think they're popular with people who don't normally vote: the 'I don't care for that lot' brigade. This was borne out by Mike's analysis of polling in R&S yesterday. Getting those malcontents actually to vote, when they don't normally, will be a very different matter.

Mikes analysis of R&S polling yesterday was deeply deeply flawed

There is no reason to assume people saying they voted for Ukip in 2010, when there was no Ukip candidate, were non voters... Mike is relying on that assumption to justify his assertion that Ukips lead is 'flaky'

I think it is certain that many such people voted in 2010 and misremembered who for, than thought they voted when they didn't even go to the polling station

The fact that they are saying they voted Ukip, and Ukips candidate stood in 2010 for another party makes that even more likely

Alistair

antifrank said:

Morning all. As my catch-up service for the weekday crowd, here are my posts on odds in the constituency markets from a Lib Dem perspective, a Conservative perspective and a Labour perspective:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-lib-dem-battleground-in-november.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-conservative-battleground-in.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-labour-battleground-in-october-2014.html

Today's offering looking from UKIP's perspective will follow shortly after Ladbrokes reopen their markets online later this morning.

I presume their super computers are crunching the odds for the Scotland seats.

AlastairMeeks

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

Morning all. As my catch-up service for the weekday crowd, here are my posts on odds in the constituency markets from a Lib Dem perspective, a Conservative perspective and a Labour perspective:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-lib-dem-battleground-in-november.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-conservative-battleground-in.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-labour-battleground-in-october-2014.html

Today's offering looking from UKIP's perspective will follow shortly after Ladbrokes reopen their markets online later this morning.

I presume their super computers are crunching the odds for the Scotland seats.

More likely, shadsy is giving his finger an extra lick.

isam

Denis MacShane (@DenisMacShane)
02/11/2014 23:36
So all records of MPs exes prior to 2010 have been destroyed. Bit late for me but so glad for others that they won't face difficulties

audreyanne

isam said:

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I think they are unfashionable with the establishment, and survey organisations are seen as part of the establishment. There certainly are vocal kippers, the majority of which I would speculate are ex Tory, but I think there are a lot of fellow travellers, especially of the WWC ex Labour persuasion who possibly feel its not something they would admit to their mates, especially the UKIP voter who is holding his nose because he really feels more at home in another party but despairs of them having a solid policy on anything, or despairs of them ever representing the working classes again ;-)

I think they're popular with people who don't normally vote: the 'I don't care for that lot' brigade. This was borne out by Mike's analysis of polling in R&S yesterday. Getting those malcontents actually to vote, when they don't normally, will be a very different matter.

Mikes analysis of R&S polling yesterday was deeply deeply flawed

There is no reason to assume people saying they voted for Ukip in 2010, when there was no Ukip candidate, were non voters... Mike is relying on that assumption to justify his assertion that Ukips lead is 'flaky'

I think it is certain that many such people voted in 2010 and misremembered who for, than thought they voted when they didn't even go to the polling station

The fact that they are saying they voted Ukip, and Ukips candidate stood in 2010 for another party makes that even more likely

Wishful thinking and surmise I fear Isam. You are joining up a series of dots with a thin line of speculation.

ICM have found a similar phenomenon, that when they apply their certainty to vote and GE2010 voter recall, UKIP support drops. If you stop and think about it (do you?) it's pretty obvious really. A protest party will always scoop up people who are normally anti 'that lot in Westminster.' These are people who don't normally vote. Getting them actually to do so in GE2015 will be one of UKIP's hardest tasks.

Innocent_Abroad

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

After Maureen Lipman.....another Luvvie Labour's Lost:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2818284/I-ll-leave-UK-Labour-wins-election-bring-mansion-tax-says-Griff-Rhys-Jones.html

Interesting. He cites the Mansion Tax. This is yet another example of why all elections come down to individuals asking themselves how they will be better or worse off (which includes services like the NHS).

I 'feel' the media have become notably more hostile to EdM since the Mansion Tax surfaced. I said at the time he was shooting the very people he needs onside. There are a lot of important people in the media who even if they don't yet have £2m properties, don't want to think that they might get hammered.

It's the stupidest piece of electoral suicide since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto for unilateral nuclear disarmament.

Ah yes. People are greedy. If that's true, it's astonishing left-wing politics in any shape or form has lasted this long...

Scott_P

logical_song said:

A friend of mine used to say:
'Everyone's entitled to their own opinion'
then in a quieter voice
'no matter how stupid it might be'.

Epic put down in a Land Rover magazine this month, recounting a conversation with someone

"I can explain it for you, but I can't understand it for you.

I guess you can fix old Land Rovers with duct tape, you just can't fix stupid with it."

TGOHF

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

After Maureen Lipman.....another Luvvie Labour's Lost:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2818284/I-ll-leave-UK-Labour-wins-election-bring-mansion-tax-says-Griff-Rhys-Jones.html

Interesting. He cites the Mansion Tax. This is yet another example of why all elections come down to individuals asking themselves how they will be better or worse off (which includes services like the NHS).

I 'feel' the media have become notably more hostile to EdM since the Mansion Tax surfaced. I said at the time he was shooting the very people he needs onside. There are a lot of important people in the media who even if they don't yet have £2m properties, don't want to think that they might get hammered.

It's the stupidest piece of electoral suicide since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto for unilateral nuclear disarmament.

Well off people have every right to vote as selfishly as poor people do (and they do).

TGOHF

foxinsoxuk said:

Financier said:

The redLDs are just part of the picture. As they are declining and not returning to LD, then where have they been going? Not so much to the DKs but more to Green, UKIP and Cons. It has to be noted that much of the Green surge has come from the youngest age-group - will they revert to LD?

However at the same time, the the Labour 2010 VI retention has dropped significantly with extra votes going to UKIP, Greens and Cons, whilst in Scotland Labour is out of favour and losing votes to SNP.

So a rate determining step could be that after the next by-election (UKIP gained a spike after Clacton) how far can the Cons claw back their leakage to UKIP? If they can get even 6-10% back (of the current 20), then Labour could be in deep trouble.

I cannot see the LibDems recapturing the student/youth vote for a while. It was won with the emphasis on education and antiwar campaigns, lost over tuition fees and being in government. Greenism appeals to a lot of the young. Foxinsoxjr voted Green in the last election.

Unsurprising as they are led by a bunch of old white blokes..

isam

audreyanne said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I but despairs of them having a solid policy on anything, or despairs of them ever representing the working classes again ;-)

I think they're popular with people who don't normally vote: the 'I don't care for that lot' brigade. This was borne out by Mike's analysis of polling in R&S yesterday. Getting those malcontents actually to vote, when they don't normally, will be a very different matter.

Mikes analysis of R&S polling yesterday was deeply deeply flawed

There is no reason to assume people saying they voted for Ukip in 2010, when there was no Ukip candidate, were non voters... Mike is relying on that assumption to justify his assertion that Ukips lead is 'flaky'

I think it is certain that many such people voted in 2010 and misremembered who for, than thought they voted when they didn't even go to the polling station

The fact that they are saying they voted Ukip, and Ukips candidate stood in 2010 for another party makes that even more likely

Wishful thinking and surmise I fear Isam. You are joining up a series of dots with a thin line of speculation.

ICM have found a similar phenomenon, that when they apply their certainty to vote and GE2010 voter recall, UKIP support drops. If you stop and think about it (do you?) it's pretty obvious really. A protest party will always scoop up people who are normally anti 'that lot in Westminster.' These are people who don't normally vote. Getting them actually to do so in GE2015 will be one of UKIP's hardest tasks.

I think you have already proved yourself the wishful thinker with your list of reasons to Santa why you want the conservatives to do well in Rochester

I am just pointing out that people who say they voted in 2010 for a candidate who stood in 2010 are just as likely to have done so than not voted at all. Mike wrote a thread based on a massive assumption, which as someone who has made a living out of gambling for over a decade I have concluded is deeply flawed

isam

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

oxfordsimon

isam said:

Denis MacShane (@DenisMacShane)
02/11/2014 23:36
So all records of MPs exes prior to 2010 have been destroyed. Bit late for me but so glad for others that they won't face difficulties

And by difficulties, he means being held liable for the criminal acts that he undertook to increase his income by subverting the legitimate rules regarding expenses.

That man needs to shut up. Permanently.

AlastairMeeks

Ladbrokes' markets are back up (still without many Scottish constituencies).

Here's my post on UKIP:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-ukip-battleground-in-november-2014.html

Socrates

CD13 said:

They used to say that if you lived in Britain, you were never more than six feet away from a rat. Ukip could borrow that phrase.

For the avoidance of doubt, although I'm not a Kipper supporter, I did vote for them in the Euros to send a message. I support the general idea of a trading bloc, but the EU does need reform now. The LD's message is coming over as "My Europe, right or wrong."

Trading blocs are an outdated concept in the flexible modern world. We need open trading relationships with as many people as possible, not protectionist blocs.

If you think you can get reform in the EU then you haven't been paying attention.

TGOHF

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

They were certainly pretty shy last Thursday in South Yorks..

Ninoinoz

isam said:

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I think they're popular with people who don't normally vote: the 'I don't care for that lot' brigade. This was borne out by Mike's analysis of polling in R&S yesterday. Getting those malcontents actually to vote, when they don't normally, will be a very different matter.

Mikes analysis of R&S polling yesterday was deeply deeply flawed

There is no reason to assume people saying they voted for Ukip in 2010, when there was no Ukip candidate, were non voters... Mike is relying on that assumption to justify his assertion that Ukips lead is 'flaky'

I think it is certain that many such people voted in 2010 and misremembered who for, than thought they voted when they didn't even go to the polling station

The fact that they are saying they voted Ukip, and Ukips candidate stood in 2010 for another party makes that even more likely

Considering one of Mike's favourite hobby horses is that, in Westminster elections, people vote for individuals, not parties (LibDem wishful thinking, perhaps), it is strange that it's slipped his mind, especially in a by-election contest.

Socrates

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

They were certainly pretty shy last Thursday in South Yorks..

Less shy than the Tories.

isam

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

They were certainly pretty shy last Thursday in South Yorks..

Were they?

Alistair

antifrank said:

Alistair said:

antifrank said:

Morning all. As my catch-up service for the weekday crowd, here are my posts on odds in the constituency markets from a Lib Dem perspective, a Conservative perspective and a Labour perspective:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-lib-dem-battleground-in-november.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/the-conservative-battleground-in.html

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-labour-battleground-in-october-2014.html

Today's offering looking from UKIP's perspective will follow shortly after Ladbrokes reopen their markets online later this morning.

I presume their super computers are crunching the odds for the Scotland seats.

More likely, shadsy is giving his finger an extra lick.

My recommendation for Shadsy is to ignore these frothy polls and keep the SNP as long shot outsiders for the majority of seats - especially Dundee West and Gordon.

Ninoinoz

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

They were certainly pretty shy last Thursday in South Yorks..

Where was the opinion poll? Not like PBers to knowingly let one go by!

Ishmael_X

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

Well of course there are, and the argument that there aren't, because the ones who aren't shy aren't shy, is breath-taking. Like saying there are no more gays in the closet any more, because look at Julian Clary.

Commiserations on being savaged by that dead sheep by the way.

Socrates

TGOHF said:

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

After Maureen Lipman.....another Luvvie Labour's Lost:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2818284/I-ll-leave-UK-Labour-wins-election-bring-mansion-tax-says-Griff-Rhys-Jones.html

Interesting. He cites the Mansion Tax. This is yet another example of why all elections come down to individuals asking themselves how they will be better or worse off (which includes services like the NHS).

I 'feel' the media have become notably more hostile to EdM since the Mansion Tax surfaced. I said at the time he was shooting the very people he needs onside. There are a lot of important people in the media who even if they don't yet have £2m properties, don't want to think that they might get hammered.

It's the stupidest piece of electoral suicide since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto for unilateral nuclear disarmament.

Well off people have every right to vote as selfishly as poor people do (and they do).

That's not always true though. I am a London property owner who has a vested interest in population growth, and I benefit from cheap foreign labour from housekeeping to dry cleaners to haircuts. I still want to reduce immigration. Country first.

isam

Ishmael_X said:

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

Well of course there are, and the argument that there aren't, because the ones who aren't shy aren't shy, is breath-taking. Like saying there are no more gays in the closet any more, because look at Julian Clary.

Commiserations on being savaged by that dead sheep by the way.

Yes , I thought that

Had only just woke up when I read that argument so assumed I must be missing something as it was so ridiculous

NickPalmer

isam said:

Mikes analysis of R&S polling yesterday was deeply deeply flawed

There is no reason to assume people saying they voted for Ukip in 2010, when there was no Ukip candidate, were non voters... Mike is relying on that assumption to justify his assertion that Ukips lead is 'flaky'

I think it is certain that many such people voted in 2010 and misremembered who for, than thought they voted when they didn't even go to the polling station

The fact that they are saying they voted Ukip, and Ukips candidate stood in 2010 for another party makes that even more likely

We do have some recent evidence - quite a lot of 2010 non-voters turned out for UKIP at the Euros. The polls show their certainty to vote to be similar to the Tories and Labour, and that feels about right from doorstep sentiment.

audreyanne said:

I 'feel' the media have become notably more hostile to EdM since the Mansion Tax surfaced. I said at the time he was shooting the very people he needs onside. There are a lot of important people in the media who even if they don't yet have £2m properties, don't want to think that they might get hammered.

It's the stupidest piece of electoral suicide since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto for unilateral nuclear disarmament.

That's wildly overstated. I agree some in the media might feel affected (though I think the media hostility has other reasons: Ed has taken on both the Mail and Murdoch), but in other respects it's a London issue. In my largely prosperous patch people just laugh if they're asked if they're worried by a tax on homes worth over £2 million. Here's the most expensive property in Broxtowe, which is on a gated street identified as one of the 20 most expensive steeets in Britain::

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44282506.html?premiumA=true

Charles's theory on the Midlands is too generalised IMO. Many of the Midlands marginals are basically suburbia, with towns near cities where people move to when they're feeling like somewhere with a garden for the kids. That's not good UKIP territory. Others are former industrial centres and they may well fit Charles's idea. In general the region moves like England as a whole.

Pulpstar

MikeSmithson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Indigo said:

How much of "Don't Know" is shy Kipper that doesn't want to be publically associated with an unfashionable party ?

What makes you think UKIP is unfashionable? I would have thought the reverse is true! Certainly on here UKIP supporters are lacking neither self confidence nor moral certitude.....

I agree with that. One thing you cannot accuse UKIP voters of being is shy. In fact it is the other way

isam said:

Ishmael_X said:

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

Well of course there are, and the argument that there aren't, because the ones who aren't shy aren't shy, is breath-taking. Like saying there are no more gays in the closet any more, because look at Julian Clary.

Commiserations on being savaged by that dead sheep by the way.

Yes , I thought that

Had only just woke up when I read that argument so assumed I must be missing something as it was so ridiculous

Depends on your social circles, I would certainly think there are quite a few "shy" 18-30 year old UKIPpers.

RodCrosby

Lord Barnett of "formula" fame has died aged 91...

Millsy

The big question is whether that line continues to decline towards polling day. Will they ever leave Labour even if the Greens and Lib Dems continue to underwhelm?

isam

NickPalmer said:

isam said:

Mikes analysis of R&S polling yesterday was deeply deeply flawed

There is no reason to assume people saying they voted for Ukip in 2010, when there was no Ukip candidate, were non voters... Mike is relying on that assumption to justify his assertion that Ukips lead is 'flaky'

I think it is certain that many such people voted in 2010 and misremembered who for, than thought they voted when they didn't even go to the polling station

The fact that they are saying they voted Ukip, and Ukips candidate stood in 2010 for another party makes that even more likely

We do have some recent evidence - quite a lot of 2010 non-voters turned out for UKIP at the Euros. The polls show their certainty to vote to be similar to the Tories and Labour, and that feels about right from doorstep sentiment.

audreyanne said:

I 'feel' the media have become notably more hostile to EdM since the Mansion Tax surfaced. I said at the time he was shooting the very people he needs onside. There are a lot of important people in the media who even if they don't yet have £2m properties, don't want to think that they might get hammered.

It's the stupidest piece of electoral suicide since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto for unilateral nuclear disarmament.

That's wildly overstated. I agree some in the media might feel affected (though I think the media hostility has other reasons: Ed has taken on both the Mail and Murdoch), but in other respects it's a London issue. In my largely prosperous patch people just laugh if they're asked if they're worried by a tax on homes worth over £2 million. Here's the most expensive property in Broxtowe, which is on a gated street identified as one of the 20 most expensive steeets in Britain::

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44282506.html?premiumA=true

Charles's theory on the Midlands is too generalised IMO. Many of the Midlands marginals are basically suburbia, with towns near cities where people move to when they're feeling like somewhere with a garden for the kids. That's not good UKIP territory. Others are former industrial centres and they may well fit Charles's idea. In general the region moves like England as a whole.

How do you know "quite a lot of 2010 non voters turned out for ukip at the Euros?"

Although if that is true, it undercuts Mikes argument in a different way.

But again I say, assuming people who said they voted in 2010 did not vote is a massive rick by Mike, especially when the person they say they will vote for this time stood in 2010

He is throwing good money after bad... No doubt he will use the old get out " it was a value loser", but in reality, it's just a bad bet

MarqueeMark

oxfordsimon said:

isam said:

Denis MacShane (@DenisMacShane)
02/11/2014 23:36
So all records of MPs exes prior to 2010 have been destroyed. Bit late for me but so glad for others that they won't face difficulties

And by difficulties, he means being held liable for the criminal acts that he undertook to increase his income by subverting the legitimate rules regarding expenses.

That man needs to shut up. Permanently.

Quite so. The pungent whiff of martyr he gives off - "I was crucified so that you don't have to be" - is vomit-inducing.

Pulpstar

@isam

Rochester & Strood betting is going to be like the recent Pakistan - Australia test match.

I bet you could have got tremendous "value" backing Australia on days, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 right till they were crushed by 346 runs.

logical_song

isam said:

TGOHF said:

isam said:

Re shy kippers

When poling firms give ukip the same level of respectability as other major parties, ie prompting, UKIPs score goes up significantly, so it would seem there are indeed "shy kippers"

They were certainly pretty shy last Thursday in South Yorks..

Were they?

Shyer than expected here.

isam

Lib Dems at it again... No wonder they all voted Labour in South Yorkshire

TAXI-GATE: Ex-Milton Keynes Mayor vouched for asylum seeker who is now a convicted paedophile

http://www.miltonkeynes.co.uk/news/local/taxi-gate-ex-milton-keynes-mayor-vouched-for-asylum-seeker-who-is-now-a-convicted-paedophile-1-6386984

felix

Innocent_Abroad said:

audreyanne said:

CarlottaVance said:

After Maureen Lipman.....another Luvvie Labour's Lost:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2818284/I-ll-leave-UK-Labour-wins-election-bring-mansion-tax-says-Griff-Rhys-Jones.html

Interesting. He cites the Mansion Tax. This is yet another example of why all elections come down to individuals asking themselves how they will be better or worse off (which includes services like the NHS).

I 'feel' the media have become notably more hostile to EdM since the Mansion Tax surfaced. I said at the time he was shooting the very people he needs onside. There are a lot of important people in the media who even if they don't yet have £2m properties, don't want to think that they might get hammered.

It's the stupidest piece of electoral suicide since Michael Foot's 1983 manifesto for unilateral nuclear disarmament.

Ah yes. People are greedy. If that's true, it's astonishing left-wing politics in any shape or form has lasted this long...

Oh that's easy - the essence of left-wing politics is 'do as I say, not as I do'.

Ninoinoz

Pulpstar said:

@isam

Rochester & Strood betting is going to be like the recent Pakistan - Australia test match.

I bet you could have got tremendous "value" backing Australia on days, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 right till they were crushed by 346 runs.

That's the problem with value betting. I believe it's the correct way to bet over the long term, but it generates a stream of losing bets.

You need balls of steel to do it.

Financier

http://labourlist.org/2014/11/who-might-be-on-the-move-in-labours-mini-reshuffle/

OblitusSumMe

I'm very slightly wary of using the Populus figures, because they give such a large two-party share of the vote to Labour and Conservative (wish we had more ICM polls). However, from my subjective recollection of what I've seen in the polls I'd agree that the recent deterioration in the Labour share is due to changes in the voting intention of Labour 2010 voters. The Labour core vote is drifting away.

Peter_the_Punter

Ninoinoz said:

Pulpstar said:

@isam

Rochester & Strood betting is going to be like the recent Pakistan - Australia test match.

I bet you could have got tremendous "value" backing Australia on days, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 right till they were crushed by 346 runs.

That's the problem with value betting. I believe it's the correct way to bet over the long term, but it generates a stream of losing bets.

You need balls of steel to do it.

Well I don't know about that, Nino, but a betting bank helps.

I don't think that Rochester price is going anywhere but straight down to 1.01.

Theuniondivvie

RodCrosby said:

Lord Barnett of "formula" fame has died aged 91...

91? Presumably he didn't smoke the fags that were in the packet upon which he wrote the (in)famous formula.

isam

Ninoinoz said:

Pulpstar said:

@isam

Rochester & Strood betting is going to be like the recent Pakistan - Australia test match.

I bet you could have got tremendous "value" backing Australia on days, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 right till they were crushed by 346 runs.

That's the problem with value betting. I believe it's the correct way to bet over the long term, but it generates a stream of losing bets.

You need balls of steel to do it.

Of course it's the correct way to bet, but people often fall into the trap of thinking that the outsider is always the value, and justifying terrible bets by saying they were. Oldest excuse in the book.

Everyone thinks the bet they had was the value, else they wouldn't have bet it

david_kendrick1

It is agreed that significant UKIP support comes from those who didn't vote last time. But UKIP suffers hugely from postal vote scams.

Making it easier for people to vote is desirable. But PV is not the way to go, if your interest is genuinely in favour of reflecting more people's wishes.

Any constitutional change (eg HoL reform) needs to take this into account.

felix

Is it just me or were the worst things about t-shirtgate last week just how styleless the things were, how Clegg/Miliband/Harman were tied for how dire it made each of them look and at £45 each who in the real world pays that for a f****** t-shirt!

FluffyThoughts

When 20% of the English Nation support UKIP then we have a problem: Why the freck do we wish to keep an institutionalised 18th C state inbred with ungrateful Scots, Welsh and Ulster-Scots?* It is time....

:best-rid:

* Our best probably - and sensibly - left for the colonies. Empire is no more: Westminster-democracy (outwith Edinborough Parish-Council) is the best bet. Time to maintain our channel and out-reach to the rest of the nations....

Morris_Dancer

F1: post-race analysis is now up:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/america-post-race-analysis.html

NickPalmer

isam said:

How do you know "quite a lot of 2010 non voters turned out for ukip at the Euros?"

Like all parties who have been around for a while, we have records of who's voted going back for 20 years. There are lots of people who didn't vote in 2010, did vote in the Euros, and canvassed as UKIP. Obviously I can't prove it, but I assume they voted UKIP.

Incidentally, there's an interesting poll in the Times Red Box briefing. Asked who people MIGHT vote for EVER, they get Lab 39, Con 38, UKIP 20, LibDems 17. Those who say "NEVER" are Con 53, Lab 51, LibDems 70, UKIP 65. The detailed breakdown shows the expected - LDs more likely to switch to Lab, UKIP more likely to switch to Cons.

The Con/Lab figures broadly confirm the current polls though they suggest quite a low ceiling on people who would even think about voting for them. The LibDem figure is quite good in showing a poll of considerers double their current rating, though it also shows them as the most unpopular party. UKIP appears to be near its ceiling. The poll adds:

"Of those currently saying they would vote Conservative, 71 per cent are definites; for Labour, it's 69 per cent; for the Lib Dems 61 per cent; and for Ukip it's 70 per cent."

https://times-deck.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/projects/7a614fd06c325499f1680b9896beedeb.html

chestnut

The LD switchers were believed to be almost exclusively Labour gains for a long while.

As time has gone on LD switching has increased but all the added switchers have mainly gone to UKIP or the Greens with smaller boosts to the Tories.

Among the decideds;

Yougov (last 10)

LAB 30.2, GRN 13.5, UKIP 13.4, CON 13.1

Ashcroft (last 6)

LAB 28.7, UKIP 14.8, GRN 12.2, CON 11.0

ComRes (last 6)

LAB 29.8, UKIP 13.3, CON 10.7, GRN 8.0

Populus (last 6)

LAB 30.7, CON 13.3, UKIP 12.2, GRN 6.5

ICM (last 6)

LAB 30.5, UKIP 10.2, CON 9.8, GRN 9.5

At Peak Labour back in Feb 2013, Lab were on close to 40 with YG, while every other party was on low single digits.

Floater

Interesting -and kudos to those who pointed out previously that the next election was going to be determined by a number of factors, not just red yellows.