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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling averages and changes with the Phone Pollsters since January
Without rehearsing the discussions on PB on why some of us prefer phone pollsters, in recent days, a few posters have asked me to revive the PB polling average.
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Meh, the curse of the new thread.
FPT: +++ ANECDOTE KLAXON +++
In Gibraltar we fly back to the UK for major operations which can't be handled locally and the Health Authority, which thankfully isn't part of the NHS, is charged accordingly. However some tests and scans will be done over the border in Benalmádena and Algeciras and the Govt/taxpayer pay the costs of that.
I have to carry a GHA card which doubles as a EHIC and neatly duplicates all of the info I have on my ID card in a pointless bit of admin. That gets me through incidents such as a small tap I had with the car last year just outside Gaucín. My in-patient treatment appeared on par with the locals and there was nothing to really grumble about except their odd preference for family to bring you in food rather than them feeding you.
They were, though, extremely keen to ensure that my paperwork was in order and up to date. I wouldn't like to imagine what would have happened if it hadn't been. Gib will charge anyone we don't have reciprocal health agreements with the full whack if you fall ill here and that's not cheap.
Never mind.
Cumbria local election results by division:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEEtMS1xOWltVDBHVGJ0RDVRT3pENkE#gid=0
I've just done a comparison of the average poll vote share from all May 2012 polls and all May 2013 polls (so far):
Con 29% (-4)
Lab 38% (-6.5)
LD 9.5% (+0.5)
UKIP 16% (+8%)
On those figures neither major party can gain any comfort. The Tories should be worried that even after a budget that didn't repeat the debacle of 2012 they are still down another 4 points on average with there being no clear event to explain such a drop in support. Similarly for the lead opposition party to be losing so much of their vote share year on year again without a significant event intervening is not encouraging.
If UKIP is becoming a mainstream party then its possible that the core vote levels for the major parties (particularly the Tories) will need to be reassessed. Unless of course that is, that the only people splitting off to UKIP are floating voters and media reports suggest that is not the case.
Yet the Whig/Liberal Party has disintegrated from the days of Gladstone down to a rump of 21 local councillors. They had a core vote, once, below which they couldn't have ever believed they would fall.
Similarly, us Ásatrú are a fading group now. Odin doesn't get the respect he deserves these days, but even deities don't have a divine right to exist. Political parties certainly don't.
Which of these would make the best Prime Minister?
DC: 32(+1)
EdM: 21(-3)
NC: 5(-1)
DK: 41(+3)
Only 59% of Labour support EdM
Ideally they should stay out of government to rebuild the Party. If the numbers mean they are forced to join a coalition they must appear the reluctant bride "doing it for the good of the country" etc.
"Cameron's women problem"
M:+11
F: +11
"Cameron's pensioner problem"
+19
Oh......
None of the Parties are any good at anything other than a demand led recovery. But Labour are the least able to understand the alternatives.
M:+11
F: +9
60+: -1
Titters .... and sips tea agreeably.
"But the upside is that, for all tim's messing around, Dave will never be hated like Maggie. Results may gain him enough respect and tolerance to continue as PM in coalition after 2015."
....and he's right. If we have to be led by a Tory he's about as good as they get. Apart from Heath the rest were frankly monsters. Howard and Thatcher were life sapping.
Cameron might still be saved by the middle of the roaders who once voted for Clegg.
When he sees power slipping away he'll probably revert to core Torydom but if he resists and continues to take on his own right wingers this should gain him new support in the centre which might see him through.
(Footnote. I'm also unsure of what Ed stands for if anything)
"Footnote. I'm also now unsure of what Ed stands for if anything"
Come to the Dark Side Roger ....
The charts seem to show a flatlining Dave and Redward bleeding support to the Kippers. I'm kind of curious to see how Farage's impending assault on traditional Labour WWC voters oop north will fare. If he does well it will yield a very weird GE result.
(I heard an interview with a Labour economic spokesman yesterday and it was embarrassing. His answer to everything was 'we don't need a policy till 2015' Fair enough if he's prepared for his supporters to support a different party until then.)
The key issue now, with a possible Lab/LD coalition, is whether they will return to their old New Labour roots not to scare the horses or markets or return to their old Old Labour roots because they refuse to connect with reality.
Of the two, and given that Old Labour really is a foreign country to the shadow cabinet, I favour the former.
We will therefore have another right of centre party restraining the LDs’ wilder flights of left wing fancy. I really wouldn’t mind too much if they showed themselves to be halfway competent. Which of course they never have and never will.
But Labour never ever actually promotes equality of opportunity does it? It promotes equality of outcome at the expense of opportunity. Borrow and spend is not a sustainable recipe for rising living standards. So what is Labour offering if not more and more spending? Or is it indeed just ever higher spending and debt? Does anyone (incl Redward) actually know?
Beyond that they're taking more votes from Labour than the Conservatives.
Which is why the UKIP surge has seen the Labour lead fall in some polls and at the local elections.
What that also means is that any reduction in UKIP support, as the Cameroons and High Tories expect, might benefit Labour rather than the Conservatives.
It would be wonderfully ironic, but in accordance with their record of strategic incompetance, if all the abuse and hatred aimed by the Cameroons and High Tories at UKIP merely results in an increased Labour lead.
He stands for responsible spending except when he stands for opposing every cut
etc
etc
He's the Schrodinger politician!
'As things stand, I see Labour as the least worst choice for someone like me who does not believe in stigmatising and penalising the poorest and most vulnerable in society,"
I agree so why does Ed struggle to find these issues of inequality to talk about? Polly T finds them everyday. Even yesterday when the usually lamentable Osborne was defending foreign aid where was the Labour spokesman?
I really miss the Lib Dems. However unpopular the cause they could always sound righteous and it won them 22% of the vote. Even when Labour do stand on the right side of an argument they make it sound opportunistic. Where are their great causes? Why isn't Ed calling UKIP for what they are. Fruitcakes loonys and closet racists? They've become pathetic.
I don't think so.
The Conservatives still retain many middle class swing voters of the sort they lost to Blair.
What they're losing instead is their working class support. And they're losing these voters partly through being weak on 'working class patriot' issues - crime, immigration, defence - partly through the Cameroons' metropolitanism and partly through the increasingly obvious contempt the Cameroons feel for the working class.
The weakenss of EdM helps the Conservative keep those middle class swing voters but it also reduces the fear factor working class Conservative voters feel towards Labour. They're never going to be as 'scared' of EdM as they were of Benn or Foot or Kinnock or Brown.
Wouldn't you rather people earned their way up the income ladder with proper jobs? That means energizing the private sector outside the south east. The process of doing this may be a bit painful - some stick as well as some carrot. But the outcome is better long term.
Oh.
"Last October, after Dawn Approach won a big two year old race, I backed him in a double to win the 2000 Guineas and Derby. This post is not, however, about my amazing prescience and tipping ability. It is about the power of social media.
But to understand the story, I do need to give you the details of the bet – and thus of my amazing prescience and tipping ability.
The bet was a £25 each way double on Dawn Approach winning the 2000 Guineas at 4/1 and the Derby at 12/1. Should it come off, I stand to win £1825. Dawn Approach won the 2000 Guineas easily, and is now the odds-on favourite for Saturday’s Derby.
As you can imagine, I have been eagerly anticipating the Derby. Until last week. On Friday, I received this email from William Hill:
Dear Mr Pollard,
We are writing with regards to your recent bet on Dawn Approach to win both the 2000 Guineas and the Derby.
You have placed the bet as a standard each way double, however when bets are incorrectly accepted on accumulative antepost bets, using the same selection we settle at a special combined price.
As such the new price we are offering you on the bet you have placed is 15/1.
We understand that this is a shorter price than you were expecting, and as such offer our apologies with the option to settle both bets as singles.
Translated into English it meant that William Hill had decided – seven months after the bet was accepted, and nearly four weeks after the first leg won – that it shouldn’t have offered the odds that it was offering in October. And so it was unilaterally changing the odds for the double succeeding from 65/1 to 15/1.
There is, in betting, a concept known as ‘related contingency’. If two events are related and the chance of the second event happening is related to the first, then the odds offered against are not simply multiplied – a bookie will offer a special price. In other words, because the chance of Dawn Approach winning the Derby is that much greater having won the Guineas, and his price would contract, in advance of both events they would likely offer a much smaller price on the two events happening.
But similarly, from the punter’s perspective one of the key tools is spotting when you think a bookmaker has priced something wrongly – that you think he has underestimated the chance of it happening. So when I saw the combined odds last October of 65/1 – that was 4/1 and 12/1, both advertised on the William Hill site – I pounced.
Had they said within a few days that they had made a mistake – computer error and all that – then I’d have been annoyed, but mistakes happen.
But it took them seven months – and the first leg winning – before they noticed their ‘mistake’. Indeed, they didn’t even get in touch straight after the first leg. They waited another four weeks.
I wrote to their customer services. And for 3 days, not a word.
So I wrote to the CEO, Ralph Topping..." http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/stephenpollard/100219008/the-power-of-twitter-it-can-make-a-bookie-pay-up/
And that's the rub. Do you vote for a party to feel good about yourself, or do you want to make the working poor better off? If the latter, you have but one choice: UKIP.
Labour under Ed believe that opposition means saying that's wrong about everything and suggesting nothing positive in its place. There was a time you knew what Labour stood for, today they're more pointless than Cameron.
These two issues are ones that the Cameroons are vulnerable on but EdM is merely their Labour equivalent.
Aside from his background EdM seems as little interested in tackling the abuses of power which an overmighty big state makes as the Cameroons are in tackling the abuses of power which an overmighty big business makes.
Come to think of it Labour weren't interested in tackling the abuses of power of overmighty big business when they were in government either.
Which explains why Labour is now losing working class support to UKIP.
I get your Ronaldo related contingency example - but I don't follow the original logic of WHill: wouldn't that potentially make every accumulator a related contingency?
What's special about this one?
Labour MPs must be looking at this polling and wondering whether it's too late to offload one or both Eds before 2015. They do damage every day they remain in situ and the damage getting shot of them would cause also rises with every day we get closer to 5/5/2015. A nodding dog leading the opposition should be polling 40%+ at this stage of the cycle.
Surely most people who act on their strong political beliefs or are prepared to enter political debate think theyre are contributing something to make society a better place.
Eg I personally think that a big welfare state, encourages an attitude, both from the people who depend on it and how they are viewed by others, that is bad for society, but don't doubt the motivation of people who are in favour of it ... Maybe it's because I used to think that myself
Labour's talent cupboard is bare , quite bare.
Nothing in recent Labour history persuades me that they are really keen on letting the people - as opposed to their corporate friends - have more power and wealth. I agree that a sensible left of centre party is needed and is long overdue but Labour - under current management - is not it, alas.
The corporation suffers from left wing ‘groupthink’ that prevents its journalists from challenging institutional bias and results in pro-immigration ‘propaganda’, according to the research published yesterday.
It was also accused of ‘downplaying’ violence by Islamists while being happy to criticise Christianity and report on the activities of other violent extremists.
The report, by independent think-tank The New Culture Forum, looked at coverage by BBC news and current affairs programmes since 1997.
It comes as the BBC undertakes an ‘impartiality review’ by former ITV and Sky executive Stuart Prebble to see whether it gives ‘due weight’ to a full range of opinion on controversial topics, such as immigration.
The study’s author, Ed West, concluded: ‘In its coverage of the topic of immigration, the BBC has given overwhelmingly greater weight to pro-migration voices, even though they represent a minority – even elitist – viewpoint.
‘And in its coverage of the economic arguments for and against immigration, it has devoted somewhat more space to pro-migration voices.
‘In terms of the social costs, the BBC has almost totally ignored certain areas. The more awkward a subject is for polite society to deal with, the less coverage the BBC gives it.’
He added: ‘It would be no exaggeration to say that a foreigner who subscribed only to the BBC might visit this country and be blissfully unaware of many of the social problems associated with immigration.’
According to the study, it is ‘common practice’ for the BBC to give a platform to multiple pro-immigration spokesmen with no dissenting voices.
Mr West said: ‘Between 1997 and 2013, of the hundreds of immigration news reports that I have personally watched, listened to and read, in literally just a handful have anti-immigration voices not been outnumbered.’
The report was particularly scathing about a BBC Online article on ‘Migrant Myths’ published in 2002.
The article said the idea of the ‘scrounging, bogus asylum seeker’ was a ‘misconception’, while opponents of mass immigration were guilty of ‘racism, political opportunism, misinformation, media mischief-making and sheer cowardice’ as well as genuine concern.
Mr West said: ‘However laudable its intentions may be, a feature like this – which presents only one side of the argument – is propaganda.’
He said BBC bias was often unintentional or provoked by ‘basic decency’ and a desire to protect the underdog.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2332230/
What special about this one is that the horse winning the first race means the price on him winning the second race must be wrong...ie a horse winning the guineas cannot really be 16/1 to win the derby anymore.
In a normal acca, if you or I were to back four horse to win for instance, and the first three came in, that would have no bearing on the likelihood of the fourth one copping.
Although there are exceptions...
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/opinion/sport/garry-owen-horse-racing-column-1138456
Now in 1970 both the GLC and Camden council would have been Conservative controlled.
I suspect the chances of the Southam family being allowed to buy their council house would have a great deal less if Labour had been in control of the councils at that time.
Exhibit A
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21511904
For instance, abolishing grammar schools, which was intended to put everyone on the same footing, seems to have reduced social mobility, making outcomes more unequal.
More broadly, Labour's well meant attempts to increase equality of outcome generally fail to account for people gaming the system. Some parents have the time and inclination to research all the options, fill in all the forms, and thus get the best for their children: other parents don't.
There are also some Labour supporters with prejudices that directly sabotage equality of outcome. I have met several dozen fervent Labour supporters, and members, in Sheffield (including some of my teachers, one of them the trade union steward) who said there was no point in anyone from my side of the city (the poor side) bothering with exams, because the bosses see the working classes as factory fodder, and will never permit us to be anything more. - top-hatted toffs forever grinding the honest working folk into the mud.
I don't know how common that view is among Labour supporters, but it is toxic to equality of outcome.
Kindly re-instate my "naughty step" post
Thank you.
Enjoyed playing with the graphs, and came to the same conclusion as Mr. Eagles. Although slightly bouncy, the blues have been around 31% and the yellows around 11%. Labour have seen a significant decline and UKIP a significant improvement. Instead of splitting the right the rise of UKIP appears to have split the opposition vote between itself and Labour.
I wonder if this is due to the interesting situation in the eurozone, the lack of rightwing red meat from the Conservatives (partly because Cameron's not Redwood and partly because of the Coalition), or because E. Miliband is not very inspiring (or a combination, of course).
The Greens could have been the new left of center party, but their policies on energy are bonkers and they are really a watermelon party, green on the outside but deepest red on the inside. Indeed so red are they, that they are more communist than anything else. In other words a left/left party. Pah!
That doesn't stop them seeing the working class as mere wage slaves though.
Peter Kellner responds to criticism of questions, in the ST YouGov, regarding Muslims and Islam.
He concludes: "I doubt whether what I have written here will satisfy everybody. These kinds of controversies are bound to erupt from time to time, and views will vary. But YouGov will continue to explore what people think, and that includes testing views that offend some people including, sometimes, me."
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/05/29/are-there-questions-yougov-should-not-ask/
Asking for the removal of a 'nasty' answer regarding Islam/Muslims so that there's only 'mostly nice' and 'jolly nice' options would obviously distort things. Imagine if they removed the 'jolly nice' option, so that there only choices were that a sizeable minority were trouble-makers or that almost all of them were?
Quick gig report for Sunil and TSE. Depeche Mode's set at the 02 was very similar to that in Budapest (I can't swear there were no differences, but I didn't notice any). However, the stage set is much better indoors than outdoors - the lighting at the 02 was quite magnificent, with effects that simply didn't work as well in Budapest. "Barrel Of A Gun", which is a song I've never been that struck on, stood out in this respect.
It was a great concert (again). I'm struck each time at how strong both Dave Gahan's and Martin Gore's voices are. For me, a lot of the new album holds up very well in comparison with the earlier material. "Goodbye" and "Soothe My Soul" in particular stand out. If Depeche Mode carry on touring - and I wonder whether this might be intended to be their last tour, given how much they return to their origins with this set list - they could well become staples.
I'm pretty certain that the dogs in the visual backdrop for "Precious" were filmed in Budapest about 400m from my flat there, and that my other half and I walked past as they were doing the filming in April.
https://www.facebook.com/events/429609710453384/
UKIP supporters rightly feel pretty chuffed on this thread but they should be careful what they wish for. The polling makes it clear that they are having some success in winning votes from Labour but the risk from their point of view is that they start to even out their support in a way that is consistent with the seat analyses which show them getting no seats even at the very high teens. Under FPTP they would do much better if their support was concentrated and they were doing more damage to one of the main parties than the other.
I think their success is still largely NOTA. UKIP does not seem to me to have any credible platform or policies (in fairness nor does HM's Loyal Opposition), rather a set of prejudices and slogans. Given the inevitable disillusionment with politics that has accompanied the gradual return to the real world from Brown's fantasy grotto with 5 years of falling living standards so far this has got them a long way but there must be a limit and we may now be seeing it.
Can UKIP move to the next level? I doubt it because it is a lot easier to be against, well almost everything, than to be for things. Ask Ed. They have a chance but they should not underestimate how hard this will be with some supporters being lost along the way.
Is Dave really to blame?
Contention is that the UKIP/Tory split is just a resurgence of the same split that occurred over Catholic Emancipation, the Corn Laws, The Reform Bill, Imperial Preference and Maastricht.
i.e. a split between the "reform that ye may preserve" model advocated by Macaulay and the Last Ditchers determined to stick up for the established verities.
Consequently David Cameron is just a cork bobbing in the water, in the grip of forces he can't control. He deserves pity, not condemnation.
North Korean stuff.
I was also Kim Dun In because of that!
I assumed the bet was placed on the Internet. They emailed him, so there was no idiot cashier.
I think he is trying to show the power of twitter in shaming bookies into standing bets they've laid, and their sneaky ways of calling on ts and cs to swerve ricks they made.
They had enough time to void it before the guineas, they were incompetent, they should wear it.
An ante post bet like that with the non runner element reduces the related contingency effect in my opinion.
Nice bit of self praise though, well done. We have probably all had winning bets before.
I can understand why - even though I disagree with many of the views at the DT, articles that have no obvious legal issues are closed without explanation if they look like they may be the subject of legitimate debate. Given that the Telegraph charges for access, I wonder how this is going down in their subscriptions dept?
The OECD, which represents 34 advanced economies, forecast average growth of 1.2% this year and 2.3% in 2014.
But it warned of a gap between fast-growing members, such as the United States, and the eurozone, which will continue to struggle.
It said the UK would grow by 0.8% this year and 1.5% next year.
The forecasts came in the OECD's twice-yearly Economic Outlook publication.
"While still disappointing, the global economy is moving forward, and it is doing so at multiple speeds," said Pier Carlo Padoan, the OECD's deputy secretary general, and the organisation's chief economist.
Austerity effect
The OECD said the UK economy continued to face "strong headwinds" although economic problems had not hit the jobs market as badly as had been expected.
It said the government's austerity plans had affected growth, but said the measures were "necessary" and warned that "further fiscal consolidation" was needed.
The organisation painted a troubled picture of the eurozone economy, which it expects to shrink by 0.6% this year.
It blamed austerity measures, weak confidence and tight credit conditions. It hinted that the European Central Bank (ECB) may want to expand quantitative easing (QE) as a measure to encourage stronger growth.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22700029
I believe pretty much exactly the same thing as you (with the nuance that the state should focus on removing roadblocks and confronting vested interests rather than directly enforcing redistribution).
And yet I see Labour as the worst enemy of progress in this field: fighting for the vested interests (mainly the producers in the public sector) rather than really championing the interests of the ordinary people of this country. The Tories have their faults, but they are more likely to be radical about change.
"The television presenter and singer told how her father used to enjoy his tea with a dash of breast milk – and she has now continued the Klass family tradition.
She has even offered her own milk to family and friends, she said.
"Come on, it's normal," she said. "I made everyone try mine. It tastes just like those probiotic yogurt drinks. Sweet – not as sweet as condensed milk.
"I grew up knowing that he did that so it's not weird to me. I sound like a happy-clappy hippy. Oh well, now you know. We're that kind of family."
Miss Klass, 35, has two daughters aged five and two and took inspiration for drinking her own milk from her father Oscar, a senior officer in the Royal Navy who used his wife's breast milk for his tea. .." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/10085828/Mylene-Klass-we-all-drink-breast-milk-in-our-tea-in-my-family.html
Most people take it to mean lending to buyers with no or insufficient income with no or very small deposit.
You take it to mean anyone buying a house under a Conservative government.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/janetdaley/10084693/More-people-renting-houses-rather-than-owning-them-would-be-better-for-our-economy.html
"In April, mortgage lending fell for the fourth month in a row. It seems that the British are so determined to get on top of their personal debt that repayments have exceeded borrowing for eight of the past 12 months."
This is the worst debt bubble ever...
I think it is very likely the UK will manage 0.8% growth in the first six months of this year and something very close to that again in the second half. I suspect that at the moment Osborne quite content that there are a series of forecasts in place that he will comfortably exceed. After all, he had nearly 2 years of the reverse which did him no good at all.
I very much hope that the EZ forecast is also somewhat pessimistic. It seems to be going from poor to bad. AEP has an interesting story about a best seller in Portugal arguing that they should leave the Euro. "Best seller" sounds quite exciting but the Wall Street Journal story about the same thing rather lets the cat out of the bag by stating this amounts to 7,000 copies.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100024723/portuguese-bestseller-calls-for-euro-exit/
Winning the Guineas does not have any impact on winning the Derby.
All winning the Guineas means is that he is a better horse than WmHill thought. It's not a related contingency - just highlights a mistake they made.
Ok, that's me done then folks.
Adieu ....
The economic vested interests (Corn Laws, Preference, EU) and political vested interests (catholics, reform, maastricht, arguably gay marriage)
The theme as always is radicals vs. vested interests
Hmmm see your point... One isn't a qualifier for the other
It's not like backing a team to win the semi final and final of a cup in a double.
But I can see why laying the Guineas/Derby double is a bad bet to lay at the original prices.
Bookies are mainly cowards and hypocrites, they'll do anything to cheat people out of dough, but they are allowed to lay what price they like.
Having accepted the bet and the first leg having been run, they don't have a leg to stnd on.
Would they have emailed and offered the chance to void if the first leg had lost?