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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle does seem to be getting tighter: Both tonight’s online panel polls have CON & LAB on 33% each
Tonight's YouGov for S Times sees LAB & CON once again level pegging.
CON 33%-1
LAB 33% -1
UKIP 16% +1
LD 7% +1
GRN 6% =
0
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UKIP is to make a serious attempt to win 100 seats at next year’s general election and will try to oust even Eurosceptic Tories.
At a strategy meeting last week, senior party figures agreed to field candidates in every seat — and run serious campaigns in 100 of them — and not give a free ride to MPs who want to leave the EU. The decision was backed by Douglas Carswell, who became Ukip’s first elected MP earlier this month after defecting from the Tories.
Paul Sykes, the party’s biggest donor, is prepared to give more than £1.5m to help fund the campaign. “We want to make it absolutely clear that we are not interested in behind-the-scenes deals with other parties, all of whom are committed to our continued membership of the failing European Union,” said the party leader, Nigel Farage. “We will not be doing
grubby deals.”
#Labour vote % at Great Britain Westminster by-elections since GE 2010. 14 wins, 1 second place, no lost deposits
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/526097766179962880
It is possible that attacked by UKIP in E&W and the SNP in Scotland Labour could be the ones to seriously implode. They have an awful leader and no policy beyond the magic money tree and save the NHS - and the latter means save it for Unison, the BMA and all the other vested interests.
Carswell really is a [moderated]
On more pleasant news, I'm backing Newcastle to beat Spurs.
Change in #Labour vote % at GB Westminster by-elections vs. GE 2010 for each seat:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/526099593671741440
Loaded Revolvers will be handed to PB Tories when they clock off tonight.
Their best month since February 2012.
A tipping point has been reached, I think...
Yep, sounds right.
Has anyone else recently on PB pronounced a tipping point?
*Innocent Face*
Sky News @SkyNews 17m17 minutes ago
THE SUNDAY TIMES FRONT PAGE: "Merkel: I will block PM on immigrants" #skypapers
Merkel grabs Cammo's balls, and it couldn't happen to a more deserved chap.
And something of a political betting story as well?
Yep, sounds about right.
Sure, spend some resources boosting your support to respectable levels in 100 seats for the future. But making a serious attempt to win more than a couple of dozen is just foolish.
Posting the Sunday Times/YouGov on a Saturday Night led me to become PB's guest editor.
I owe so much to Rupert Murdoch and Chris Huhne's ability to keep his snake inside the pet store for that.
Carswells mensch volume of re tweeting which clutters up conhome shows him and his tory mindset as the same as an ex smoker when it comes to the smell of smoke. Evangelical hypocritical and a little unsure whether they've kicked it for sure.
Peter Kellner, the president of YouGov, warned that Labour’s performance in the polls falls short of even the modest expectations set by some frontbenchers.
“People talk about Labour having a 35% strategy,” he said. “In September, Labour never fell below 35%. In October, Labour has never been above 35% and has touched 35% only twice in 17 polls we have conducted.
“As it is normal for the main opposition to lose rather than gain support in the final six months of a parliament, Labour would now do well to have reached 35% next May.”
Senior (Labour) party figures said they expected to lose up to 15 of Labour’s 41 seats in Scotland, potentially wrecking Miliband’s chances of winning a majority next year.
TheScreamingEagles said:
» show previous quotes
I have no idea.
Is really annoying, I was the person who usually was the first person on the internet to post the Sunday Times/YouGov poll for about four years.
I know the feeling TSE. Time was when I could count on being First ..... again! when posting on a new thread of a well known political blog, but these days I find myself being left for dead by a number of pesky Johnny-come-latelies.
Shadsy's 5/6 on SNP over 6.5 seats, available until not long ago, was the snip of this parliament IMO. Now the line is at 11.5 - still value?
How about one showing the average Labour poll lead each month in this parliament?
He said, apart from the LD Gains, there just aren't enough Lab/SNP marginals for many SNP gains.
I'm going to hang fire until we see the Ashcroft poll on the Lab held Scottish seats.
I think gains of 4-5 seats is more likely...
The sour grapes around here real is a wonder to behold.
Unless things change, we can expect:
- A collapse of the Scottish LibDem vote
- A (possibly quite substantial) swing from Labour to the SNP
- A modest rise in the Scottish Tory vote share
We can expect the SNP to pick up several LD seats (and Labour to pick up a couple as well). Direct SNP gains from Labour require pretty chunky swings, but maybe we're going to see that? I wouldn't rule it out at all, given the ScotLab implosion and the psychology of voters wanting to give the Nats a consolation prize for 'standing up for Scotland'.
The Sunil on Sunday's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week) weekly LAB/CON/UKIP/LD scores since 17th Aug
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/526121161722437632
The gerundive has to agree with the subject it is assigned to; therefore it should agree with Farage, so:
Farage delendus est.
You have lifted your phrase from Cato, Carthago delenda est, but Carthage is feminine, as most cities in Latin were.
TSE always wrong about the classics.
http://apps.nationalarchives.gov.uk/latin/advanced/lesson11/part02.htm
" The by-election was caused by the resignation of Labour’s Shaun Wright following his election to an £85,000 salary as Police and Crime Commissioner (PCC) for South Yorkshire back in November of last year. He hung on to his £12,000pa allowance as a councillor for Rawmarsh ward as long as possible, but eventually stood down after being challenged about how much time he was putting in to his role as PCC – it was revealed he had only made 6 decisions since November, one of the lowest by a PCC in the country, and all PCCs were summoned to Whitehall for a dressing down about their expenses and hospitality which must now be declared publicly.
A number of candidates were put forward within the Rotherham Labour Party but the Party agreed an all-women shortlist and the outcome was that Lisa Wright, Shaun Wright’s wife, was selected as candidate for the by-election. As well as aiming to succeed her husband as councillor, Lisa Wright’s mother is also a member of the Council and other members of her family have previously served as councillors, in what came to be seen locally as a ‘dynastic’ issue. "
http://leftunity.org/labour-loses-election-in-its-heartland-to-ukip/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDZoVmdlVXBEQVNvcUNfR294UXo0S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
They saved 99 deposits, which ties in rather neatly with their new 100 seat strategy.
Add Clacton and Rochester where they didn't stand, and Bob's your uncle.
Next May we will be hearing how the LibDems have been butchered. And still have five times the seats of UKIP.
I think a good strategy may be to form an alliance with the DUP (their policies on europe are almost identical) in post election negotiations, they should have at least a dozen seats between them.
Indyref Yes bs all over again.
September 21
***** Betting Post *****
It's difficult to think that the SNP's level of support will fall in the aftermath of the referendum .... quite the opposite in fact in my opinion as they appear likely to receive some degree of a sympathy vote as a result of having been edged out, plus the Scots are likely to support the SNP to ensure that the full extent of the Devomax is duly delivered and in a timely manner.
It is all the more surprising therefore that Ladbrokes have recently lengthened the odds on the SNP winning >7.5 seats at the GE from 5/6 to evens, while correspondingly shortening the odds on the opposite side of the bet on them winning <7.5 seats from 5/6 from 8/11. I can only imagine this is a knee jerk reaction to Salmond's impending retirement and the degree of uncertainty this introduces as regards his successor.
Notwithstanding this aspect, evens look like very generous odds to me (indeed I had already invested at the earlier price of 5/6) and I've topped up today accordingly.
Please do your own research.
The interventions from various European 'partners' simply reinforce the impression that Cameron is living in a complete fantasy world when it comes to the EU.
Suggests to me that they have come to the conclusion that UK is too much of a square plug in a round hole to remain in the EU.
As far as politics and sex goes, isn't it more likely Con's and Kippers are just more discreet?
I am right, 'twas ever thus.
They have got to come down from their Clacton and Heywood high, smell some coffee and better manage expectations.
It's good for me here in Mid Beds as, for the first time, there is a serious rival to the conservatives standing. Nadine may struggle to retain her seat (unless she defects).
Odd to think now that I actually voted Tory in 2010 and was seriously considering joining the party at the time.
UKIP dispelling once and for all any daft notion of pre-election deals with we Tories, thereby ensuring we Tories do not spare them, except possibly in safe Labour seats.
Tories and Labour neck and neck in the polls even with UKIP at 15-18% in the polls. At this rate of change we could get the sort of polling numbers I referred to yesterday, Tories 35%, Labour 27%, UKIP 23% LibDems 10%. Now if you Baxter that, we have a Tory majority. Clearly on those sort of numbers, in Scotland we would see Labour seats falling either to the SNP or dare I suggest, to the resurgent Tory party
I don't think its news that labour supporters live in a fantasy world and tie themselves up in knots. Yes ... as if Carswell would ever admit he was wrong.
And of course we get .... ''We want to make it absolutely clear that we are not interested in behind-the-scenes deals with other parties''... unless they are neo nazis.
I'm sure from a UKIP point of view, Paul Sykes would be better of allocating that £1.5million at say the top 20 UKIP targets, rather than those 100 seats they are now going for.
There are two possibilities. Either voters will take a look before the election, and decide 'Nah, not on', or we'll drift into a Labour government not remotely ready for office. It was the latter possibility that got me thinking that they'd end up ditching Ed even if he does become PM.
Broxtowe was supposedly one of their targets, but so far their candidate (who I don't think is local - nobody I know has heard of him before) appears to have been absolutely silent since selection a few weeks ago. I dropped him a friendly hi-there-let's-have-a-good-fight note, no reply. Perhaps they are preparing some gigantic push...
There is indeed a cartoon character called Felix the Cat and this is probably what MikeK is referring to, if not the cat food advertising character.
However, felix is Latin for happy. Felis is Latin for cat.
'He said, apart from the LD Gains, there just aren't enough Lab/SNP marginals for many SNP gains.'
These are exceptional times.
In 2011 the SNP win against an electoral system that was deliberately rigged against a single party winning a majority,around 30% of Labour voters ignore their party and vote 'yes' in the referendum that the SNP narrowly lose.
Having lost the referendum SNP membership soars.
Meanwhile Labour is led by Ed with some polling indicating that he is more unpopular than Cameron in Scotland and to-day we have the Lamont fiasco.
I just don't think 'normal' applies anymore.
Name the fifteen seats Labour loses in Scotland, and the average swing needed to win them.
BOING "Cuckoo", BOING "Cuckoo"; BOING "Cuckoo" BOINGGRUNCH*
* noise of cuckooclock mechanism breaking
(oh heck I'm agreeing with Malcolm)
On topic Kentucky is an odd place so I have no idea what their sex lives are like, other than they probably involve sisters and cousins, with the occasional farm animal.
I think he will be the gift that keeps on giving.
AN EXTREME right-wing Polish MEP has warned that a new deal with Ukip will allow him to “blackmail” the party’s leader Nigel Farage.
I suggest Eagles should have to carry out this punishment on the walls of Hallam Conservative club:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbI-fDzUJXI
We're getting all the hits tonight
After the election no-one will be too bothered.