Firearms laws in the US are patently crazy, but as was pointed out down thread, they are where they are, and nothing's gonna change anytime soon.That's to their detriment, civilised human beings have no need to carry weapons. .
But use of the word "problem" is a misprision, as well. Why is American gun law a "problem"? It's like saying Islam is a "problem" for Muslims, whereas the vast majority of Muslims are perfectly happy to be Muslim. It's what they are. It's not a "problem" for them, though their attitudes might be problematic to others.
Most Americans revere their constitution (with some reason, and some irrationality), many of them are very attached to the "right to bear arms". In this light, the large number of American deaths by firearms are seen as an acceptable price to pay, or simply irrelevant, by hundreds of millions of American voters. And that's not going to change soon.
If Sandy Hook couldn't change American gun law, it's hard to see what will.
I don't think the US will ever have a total gun ban in the forseeable future, but I think some sensible gun law reform will come with time. The population is becoming less rural and more urban, less frontier culture and more internationalist, and, perhaps most importantly, less from white farmer stock and more from black and Hispanic people who have seen to damage caused by inner city gun violence. There will be a tipping point at some point. Stuff like the gun show loop hole really isn't sustainable as a sensible position.
Also, there isn't much appetite for new laws when a right-wing SCOTUS will just strike it down. That might change when there's a liberal majority, part-way through Clinton's second term.
Still irrelevant. What one Supreme Court decides, a later one can reverse (or clarify, or reinterpret, or whatever nicety they want to give it). The only sure way is to change the constitution itself. In any case, a second Clinton term would be 6-8 years away and assumes 16 years of Democrat control of the White House, which they've come nowhere near since Civil Rights wrote off the South.
I wasn't aware that he had been selected in the first place, but the UKIP candidate for Camborne & Redruth, David Evans, has been removed after admitting six animal welfare charges, including keeping emaciated sheep.
Indeed. TBH, I've largely stopped even listening to Labour now. It's worse than Tony's endless moaning in 1995/96. I switched him off - then after he changed his track, I ended up voting for him a lot.
True. Plenty of guns in Switzerland too and that's very safe as well.
Again we fall into the stupid NHS trap of thinking that there are only two ways of doing things in the entire world; our way that nobody else copies and the US way that nobody else copies.
Authoritarian regimes ban guns to keep their population docile.
Not many guns in the Uk, and we're pretty safe. So I guess our way is pretty good.
The UK was pretty safe before we regulated gun ownership too. I believe the crime stats were lower than now.
This kind of inter-country and historical comparison has far too many confounding variables to be of much use, I think. More relevant might be inter-state comparisons in the USA, where gun laws do vary at a state level (though obviously within a range restricted by the constitution).
On that point I think the evidence is pretty clear. Crime in higher in states that restrict gun ownership.
'I think the Labour view was Cameron should have done something about this a week ago'
Does anyone give a monkey's what Labour's view is on the EU?
I'm sure some people do. I'm not saying their view makes much sense or is good - it sounds like the laziest sort of default position where they don't know what to say, but obviously need to find a shoe to beat Cameron with, though quite what they expected Cameron to do in a single week or a month I don't know, given a Tory or Labour PM would have to pay up eventually anyway and I'm sure they accept that.
The funny thing is that if Cameron were prepared to say the following and follow it through.
"We are not going to pay this £1.7 billion - ever.
They will claim we are acting illegally, we don't care. Parliament is sovereign
They will then try and fine us. We won't pay.
They will then be obstructive. We will stop paying our membership fees until they stop being obstructive
They will threaten us with sanctions. This is an empty threat we import far more from them than we export them.
We also have the most powerful armed forces in Europe. They are a toothless tiger and need to be taught a lesson.
If we leave, we leave. They have far more to lose than us.
The tories would walk the next election
That stance sounds popular but the results for the economy wouldn't be. This would be a lot worse than leaving the EU, because not only would British businesses find they couldn't do business where they expected to, this would be happening suddenly and unpredictably as other countries said, "they're breaking their treaty obligations to us, no reason for us to keep our treaty obligations to them".
The funny thing is that if Cameron were prepared to say the following and follow it through.
"We are not going to pay this £1.7 billion - ever.
They will claim we are acting illegally, we don't care. Parliament is sovereign
They will then try and fine us. We won't pay.
They will then be obstructive. We will stop paying our membership fees until they stop being obstructive
They will threaten us with sanctions. This is an empty threat we import far more from them than we export them.
We also have the most powerful armed forces in Europe. They are a toothless tiger and need to be taught a lesson.
If we leave, we leave. They have far more to lose than us.
The tories would walk the next election
That stance sounds popular but the results for the economy wouldn't be. This would be a lot worse than leaving the EU, because not only would British businesses find they couldn't do business where they expected to, this would be happening suddenly and unpredictably as other countries said, "they're breaking their treaty obligations to us, no reason for us to keep our treaty obligations to them".
What have Clegg and Miliband got to say about the mammoth overcharging? C'est la fucking vie! Merde happens!. Their view need airing. And how are we gonna pay? Borrow off of China? We are run by clowns.
I think the Labour view was Cameron should have done something about this a week ago when he found out and so he has majorly screwed up, but that of course Labour agreed it was an unacceptable way of doing things?
I think we probably need a public information film so that the electorate understands what this bill is all about. It should be broadcast and explained like a PPB
Relatedly, I wish we were each presented with an annual bill for next year's expenditure, then we'd all be more circumspect about public spending. It's about £35 each I think. Personally, I can afford it - I'll just buy fewer socks or something - but there're plenty of people who wouldn't be able to pay, if it were split per capita (which of course it won't be) but it would still be good to present the economics of it so that everyone understands they'll have less money in their pocket one way or another.
Can't agree that the Cameroons can be described as being on the "extreme right" on economics, unless you think Labour are on the almost-extreme right. If you were trying to mark out an approximate spectrum on economic views, and are going to discount fringe libertarian types outside parliament, then you might stick your "extreme right" post (if you didn't think the word "extreme" unduly perjorative) down roundabout where John Redwood stands on significantly cutting the size of the state. Proper communists have been basically expunged from mainstream British politics, but you could set down an "extreme left" marker with some Labour back-benchers. You could probably find support for renationalisation of some industries, perhaps as far as telecoms, and maintaining a stake in the banks.
The Labour and Tory leadership are far closer to each other, than either are to their party fringes. One the big picture of tax and spend, and the size of the state, there is very little between them. For all the anti-austerity rhetoric, Ed Balls is making all kinds of fiscally conservative noises. And while it's true that some policies could be described as "anti-business" or "interventionist" or "left-wing" (energy price-freezing) those are sprinkled across a policy which is broadly similar to that of the Coalition, and indeed to the previous Labour government. I wouldn't expect to see the tendering of NHS contracts to come to a halt, for instance, any more than it did when Labour were last in power.
For all the arguments about economics, and the personal animosity between Balls and Osborne, there's an awful lot of consensus. I'm not sure we're very far from Butskellism.
Oh, I completely agree with your last sentence. There is FAR more consensus between Balls and Osborne than I would want. It's why I'm always perplexed when people talk about Labour "lurching to the left" when it seems pretty obvious to me atleast their current economic stance is to the right of any of the Blair manifestos. It's very depressing/
A true "centre-ground" stance as far as public opinion goes would be a much slower pace of deficit reduction than any of the 3 major parties are proposing (with no requirement to eliminate the deficit completely) and only very limited further spending cuts, with maybe even a modest boost to the NHS budget.
A radical left-wing position which I would ideally want is a complete end to austerity, no attention paid to whether the deficit is cut or not, and a heavy attack on wealth and big businesses like I'm always ranting on about.
If Sandy Hook couldn't change American gun law, it's hard to see what will.
I don't think the US will ever have a total gun ban in the forseeable future, but I think some sensible gun law reform will come with time. The population is becoming less rural and more urban, less frontier culture and more internationalist, and, perhaps most importantly, less from white farmer stock and more from black and Hispanic people who have seen to damage caused by inner city gun violence. There will be a tipping point at some point. Stuff like the gun show loop hole really isn't sustainable as a sensible position.
Also, there isn't much appetite for new laws when a right-wing SCOTUS will just strike it down. That might change when there's a liberal majority, part-way through Clinton's second term.
Still irrelevant. What one Supreme Court decides, a later one can reverse (or clarify, or reinterpret, or whatever nicety they want to give it). The only sure way is to change the constitution itself. In any case, a second Clinton term would be 6-8 years away and assumes 16 years of Democrat control of the White House, which they've come nowhere near since Civil Rights wrote off the South.
I have the feeling a purely party-psephological analysis is not terribly helpful, since the biggest prospect for reform would come should an underlying culture shift raise the prospect of a change in the Republican approach. What Socrates said about demographic trends might be more helpful, but as you said, it still takes someone to take political leadership on the issue to get the ball rolling.
To succeed, it requires as a minimum a breakdown of the current Republican homogeneity on the issue, even if there wouldn't be a formally bipartisan approach to gun control. The legal process of constitutional reform has so many blocks against it, that it'd be almost impossible to carry it as a purely Democrat and aggressively partisan project.
I agree with that. I was taking issue more with the idea of there even being a second (fourth) Clinton administration, or what the long-term consequences of one would be were it to exist.
But you've identified a very important point: while the Republicans view it as a policy that defines them, there is no chance of meaningful change, even were there to be a Democratic Congress, White House and -appointed Supreme Court. It's the Republicans themselves who have to change first. It's no coincidence that it was a Southern Democrat who finally delivered Civil Rights (well, it might be a little but it was less difficult for a Johnson to deliver than, say, a North Eastern Republican).
Is it true that Americans love the Monarchy but would balk at the notion of actually being a Monarchy?
Indeed. Americans love the monarchy as a bit of fun but they find the idea of having a hereditary head of state ridiculous.
That's right. If you interpolate Bushes and Clintons it's definitely not hereditary
You can make a case for Dubya, but not for Clinton. Both Hillary and Bill were clearly rising Democratic stars when they were at law school together. The fact that Hillary put her potential and career on hold to her successful husband doesn't mean her subsequent career is due to nepotism.
The funny thing is that if Cameron were prepared to say the following and follow it through.
"We are not going to pay this £1.7 billion - ever.
They will claim we are acting illegally, we don't care. Parliament is sovereign
They will then try and fine us. We won't pay.
They will then be obstructive. We will stop paying our membership fees until they stop being obstructive
They will threaten us with sanctions. This is an empty threat we import far more from them than we export them.
We also have the most powerful armed forces in Europe. They are a toothless tiger and need to be taught a lesson.
If we leave, we leave. They have far more to lose than us.
The tories would walk the next election
That stance sounds popular but the results for the economy wouldn't be. This would be a lot worse than leaving the EU, because not only would British businesses find they couldn't do business where they expected to, this would be happening suddenly and unpredictably as other countries said, "they're breaking their treaty obligations to us, no reason for us to keep our treaty obligations to them".
Furthermore it missis the object of diplomacy. Cameron might be angry and he might be justly angry but we do not elect PMs to shoot first and ask questions later. The shot might be in our, the electorate's foot. It is the sad duty of PMs to be at least a little bit circumspect. Thick rabble rousing opposition leaders can say what they like.
What have Clegg and Miliband got to say about the mammoth overcharging? C'est la fucking vie! Merde happens!. Their view need airing. And how are we gonna pay? Borrow off of China? We are run by clowns.
I think the Labour view was Cameron should have done something about this a week ago when he found out and so he has majorly screwed up, but that of course Labour agreed it was an unacceptable way of doing things?
No.
If you kill it whilst its still young in the nest no-one will notice. Much better to let the dragon rear its ugly head then look like St George when you charge out to fight it.
p.s. brilliant Mail and Express fronts for Cameron too on EU.
@MrHarryCole: cute RT @tonyblairoffice: TB says: the Telegraph story does not represent my view. Ed Miliband and Labour can and will win the next election
Is it true that Americans love the Monarchy but would balk at the notion of actually being a Monarchy?
Indeed. Americans love the monarchy as a bit of fun but they find the idea of having a hereditary head of state ridiculous.
That's right. If you interpolate Bushes and Clintons it's definitely not hereditary
You can make a case for Dubya, but not for Clinton. Both Hillary and Bill were clearly rising Democratic stars when they were at law school together. The fact that Hillary put her potential and career on hold to her successful husband doesn't mean her subsequent career is due to nepotism.
It certainly hasn't been hindered by it on balance.
The funny thing is that if Cameron were prepared to say the following and follow it through.
"We are not going to pay this £1.7 billion - ever.
They will claim we are acting illegally, we don't care. Parliament is sovereign
They will then try and fine us. We won't pay.
They will then be obstructive. We will stop paying our membership fees until they stop being obstructive
They will threaten us with sanctions. This is an empty threat we import far more from them than we export them.
We also have the most powerful armed forces in Europe. They are a toothless tiger and need to be taught a lesson.
If we leave, we leave. They have far more to lose than us.
The tories would walk the next election
That stance sounds popular but the results for the economy wouldn't be. This would be a lot worse than leaving the EU, because not only would British businesses find they couldn't do business where they expected to, this would be happening suddenly and unpredictably as other countries said, "they're breaking their treaty obligations to us, no reason for us to keep our treaty obligations to them".
Furthermore it missis the object of diplomacy. Cameron might be angry and he might be justly angry but we do not elect PMs to shoot first and ask questions later. The shot might be in our, the electorate's foot. It is the sad duty of PMs to be at least a little bit circumspect. Thick rabble rousing opposition leaders can say what they like.
PS - having said that, the best thing for Cameron to say to Barroso would be that the success of the Eurozone is vital to the British economy and he has rather unfortunately presided over one economic disaster in the Euro area after another - seemingly without end. The best thing for Barroso do would be to resign by December not put out the begging bowl to Britain.
MBEars A narrow Roussef reelection after a 4th term of her party in power looks most probably on Sunday in Brazil, which would offer a precedent for Hillary
MyBusiness Ears The Greens and TUSC offer a more leftwing alternative as Danny565 suggests. However a sun/yougov poll last week showed 42% believe the cuts are necessary (29% at the right level, 13% too shallow), more than the 37% who thought the cuts were too deep http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/
The word on Twitter was that he wrote the blurb himself. And he had so devalued the brand he had to get a new job.
I wish him well in his new role.
Nothing like blowing ones own horn, but that does seem strange. He may bear watching.
I assume though that he hasn't been involved in a conspiracy to intercept voice mails though? Political parties have to be so careful when employing people from the media......
The word on Twitter was that he wrote the blurb himself. And he had so devalued the brand he had to get a new job.
I wish him well in his new role.
Nothing like blowing ones own horn, but that does seem strange. He may bear watching.
I assume though that he hasn't been involved in a conspiracy to intercept voice mails though? Political parties have to be so careful when employing people from the media......
Its seems Kassam has history with the likes of Sunny Hundal, Mehdi Hassan and Shami Chakrabati. This is likely to get interesting! I do hope Nigel has done his homework
The Scottish by-election was actually won on the third count, but they seem to do some weird thing of eliminating the runner-up, and (pointlessly) doing one more transfer. Unless I'm reading it totally wrong!
The rules, as set out in the legislation, require the count to continue until the winning candidate has reached the original quota - and not the de-facto reduced quota which takes into account the number of non-transferable votes. Therefore, the runner-up is sometimes eliminated and his/her votes are transferred to the winning candidate (or non-transferable) even after the winning candidate has defeated the runner-up. Occasionally the returning officer stops the count at the correct stage and ignores the superfluous legal requirement, but usually they are nincompoops and so do as the law tells them. In other words, whoever wrote that bit of the election law is a mega-nincompoop.
The Scottish by-election was actually won on the third count, but they seem to do some weird thing of eliminating the runner-up, and (pointlessly) doing one more transfer. Unless I'm reading it totally wrong!
The rules, as set out in the legislation, require the count to continue until the winning candidate has reached the original quota - and not the de-facto reduced quota which takes into account the number of non-transferable votes. Therefore, the runner-up is sometimes eliminated and his/her votes are transferred to the winning candidate (or non-transferable) even after the winning candidate has defeated the runner-up. Occasionally the returning officer stops the count at the correct stage and ignores the superfluous legal requirement, but usually they are nincompoops and so do as the law tells them. In other words, whoever wrote that bit of the election law is a mega-nincompoop.
So you mean all that stuff about AV sometimes resulting in a winner with less than 50% was lies? You don't say...
The Scottish by-election was actually won on the third count, but they seem to do some weird thing of eliminating the runner-up, and (pointlessly) doing one more transfer. Unless I'm reading it totally wrong!
The rules, as set out in the legislation, require the count to continue until the winning candidate has reached the original quota - and not the de-facto reduced quota which takes into account the number of non-transferable votes. Therefore, the runner-up is sometimes eliminated and his/her votes are transferred to the winning candidate (or non-transferable) even after the winning candidate has defeated the runner-up. Occasionally the returning officer stops the count at the correct stage and ignores the superfluous legal requirement, but usually they are nincompoops and so do as the law tells them. In other words, whoever wrote that bit of the election law is a mega-nincompoop.
So you mean all that stuff about AV sometimes resulting in a winner with less than 50% was lies? You don't say...
The winner of an AV election always gets more than 50% of the votes in the final round.
The Scottish by-election was actually won on the third count, but they seem to do some weird thing of eliminating the runner-up, and (pointlessly) doing one more transfer. Unless I'm reading it totally wrong!
The rules, as set out in the legislation, require the count to continue until the winning candidate has reached the original quota - and not the de-facto reduced quota which takes into account the number of non-transferable votes. Therefore, the runner-up is sometimes eliminated and his/her votes are transferred to the winning candidate (or non-transferable) even after the winning candidate has defeated the runner-up. Occasionally the returning officer stops the count at the correct stage and ignores the superfluous legal requirement, but usually they are nincompoops and so do as the law tells them. In other words, whoever wrote that bit of the election law is a mega-nincompoop.
So you mean all that stuff about AV sometimes resulting in a winner with less than 50% was lies? You don't say...
The winner of an AV election always gets more than 50% of the votes in the final round.
We agree. Those that don't mark a preference between them are effectively abstainers.
I've just had a thought. When Chris Huhne was in prison, he had a Twitter account in which he tweeted his prison diary - mostly complaining about the lack of variety in the food, and describing various items which Mike Hancock had smuggled into prison for him.
But I can't find a Twitter account for Oscar Pistorius's prison diary.
The Scottish by-election was actually won on the third count, but they seem to do some weird thing of eliminating the runner-up, and (pointlessly) doing one more transfer. Unless I'm reading it totally wrong!
The rules, as set out in the legislation, require the count to continue until the winning candidate has reached the original quota - and not the de-facto reduced quota which takes into account the number of non-transferable votes. Therefore, the runner-up is sometimes eliminated and his/her votes are transferred to the winning candidate (or non-transferable) even after the winning candidate has defeated the runner-up. Occasionally the returning officer stops the count at the correct stage and ignores the superfluous legal requirement, but usually they are nincompoops and so do as the law tells them. In other words, whoever wrote that bit of the election law is a mega-nincompoop.
So you mean all that stuff about AV sometimes resulting in a winner with less than 50% was lies? You don't say...
An STV by election isn't an AV one - though it very closely resembles one until the very last stage. It is an STV election for a single vacancy - hence the seemingly odd rules at the end. If not a single voter for the 2nd placed candidate at the final stage had a transferable vote for the leading candidate, then no one would reach the quota and the election would need to be re-run. The chances of that happening in real life are infinitesimal - would be fun id it ever happened, though!
Comments
My fridge is now heaving with root vegetables. I will be resorting to chicken Bisto to mask this....
I fear there may be photos of Mr Hodges in the darker corners of the internet in years to come.
'I think the Labour view was Cameron should have done something about this a week ago'
Does anyone give a monkey's what Labour's view is on the EU?
The party that said yes to the EU on everything,gave away part of our rebate and reneged on the Lisbon referendum,their credibility is zero.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-29626429
Labour's front bench could learn a lot here.
Yummy.
I really must pop off and shop for venison, my overwhelming favourite.
Toodlepipski for this evening.
Relatedly, I wish we were each presented with an annual bill for next year's expenditure, then we'd all be more circumspect about public spending. It's about £35 each I think. Personally, I can afford it - I'll just buy fewer socks or something - but there're plenty of people who wouldn't be able to pay, if it were split per capita (which of course it won't be) but it would still be good to present the economics of it so that everyone understands they'll have less money in their pocket one way or another.
A true "centre-ground" stance as far as public opinion goes would be a much slower pace of deficit reduction than any of the 3 major parties are proposing (with no requirement to eliminate the deficit completely) and only very limited further spending cuts, with maybe even a modest boost to the NHS budget.
A radical left-wing position which I would ideally want is a complete end to austerity, no attention paid to whether the deficit is cut or not, and a heavy attack on wealth and big businesses like I'm always ranting on about.
But you've identified a very important point: while the Republicans view it as a policy that defines them, there is no chance of meaningful change, even were there to be a Democratic Congress, White House and -appointed Supreme Court. It's the Republicans themselves who have to change first. It's no coincidence that it was a Southern Democrat who finally delivered Civil Rights (well, it might be a little but it was less difficult for a Johnson to deliver than, say, a North Eastern Republican).
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11187285/Tony-Blair-Miliband-has-failed-to-connect-with-voters-and-is-doomed-to-election-defeat.html
All hear say, but we know what is really going on here.
April 2013
tim said:
"Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 4m
Prof John Curtice predicting that Ukip vote share at GE2015 could be 6-8%
Sounds about right, good enough to kill Dave off if true."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11187285/Tony-Blair-Miliband-has-failed-to-connect-with-voters-and-is-doomed-to-election-defeat.html
p.s. brilliant Mail and Express fronts for Cameron too on EU.
Thick rabble rousing opposition leaders can say what they like.
If you kill it whilst its still young in the nest no-one will notice. Much better to let the dragon rear its ugly head then look like St George when you charge out to fight it.
UKIP and Farage gets a new adviser this evening. I don't know him and it's early days, but from the blurb he seems a good choice.
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/23/Breitbart-London-Editor-Becomes-Senior-Aide-to-UKIPs-Nigel-Farage
I wish him well in his new role.
Head of US PGA sacked for a tweet calling Poulter a little girl and the PGA statement explain he is sacked and I quote...
"We apologize to any individual or group that felt diminished, in any way, by this unacceptable incident."
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/24/us-golf-pga-bishop-idUSKCN0ID2JD20141024
Yes all those 7 year old girls are deeply offended to have been compared to Iann Poulter.
I'm the only veggie in my family, including the folks back in Kerala.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b02x9zwc/agnetha-abba-and-after
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aldridge-Brownhills_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
Is this a dodgy 1/100 shot?
http://yougov.co.uk/news/categories/politics/
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/24/ukip-calypso-probably-not-heading-number-1/
http://i.imgur.com/rgdLayB.jpg
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11187324/Johann-Lamont-to-resign-as-Scottish-Labour-leader.html
But by the time Cam has finished 'negotiating' we will of course be paying Italy, Netherlands etc share too so it won't really matter.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2806433/Canadian-Prime-Minister-hid-CUPBOARD-15-minutes-MPs-sharpened-flagpoles-use-spears-against-gunman.html
But I can't find a Twitter account for Oscar Pistorius's prison diary.
So you mean all that stuff about AV sometimes resulting in a winner with less than 50% was lies? You don't say...
An STV by election isn't an AV one - though it very closely resembles one until the very last stage. It is an STV election for a single vacancy - hence the seemingly odd rules at the end. If not a single voter for the 2nd placed candidate at the final stage had a transferable vote for the leading candidate, then no one would reach the quota and the election would need to be re-run. The chances of that happening in real life are infinitesimal - would be fun id it ever happened, though!