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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two pollsters, three polls, and UKIP shares between 16% and 24%
With all eyes on UKIP polling shares following their by election successes the online survey by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror carried out a test to see whether, as many purple enthusiasts argue, their shares are understated by firms that don’t specifically prompt for the party.
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http://postimg.org/image/4w3p3ap13/
Hmmmmmm
Margin of Error with 1001 = 3.1
Margin of Error with 782 = 3.5
Comres MOE calculator
http://www.comres.co.uk/poll-digest/11/margin-of-error-calculator.htm
has UKIP down 3% from dizzy heights of last week to a more normal looking 16%.
UKIP has achieved 16% or more in just 21 of the last 627 Yougov polls or in 3.3% of Yougov's last 627 polls (the number the UKPR displays the UKIP score) and would not have achieved it in any Westminster poll prior to that. Its hardly normal.
He'd do Labour a favour if he won.
YouGov with UKIP at 16% sounds about right then.
If we take that YouGov how do things look compared to pre-Conference season? Am I right in thinking that little has changed?
"Trust to tell the truth" (net) - OA (among VI):
Cameron: -30 (+66)
Miliband: -42 (+26)
Clegg: -57 (+40)
Farage: -45 (+59)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/u8bo20w8ll/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-171014.pdf
Miliband's poor rating worsens among 2010 Lab voters where net trust is +7, (Cameron +28)
Should be included (net):
Cameron:+85
Miliband:+ 84
Clegg:+68
Farage:+45
Bennett:+18
Galloway: -32
Salmond/Sturgeon: Not asked (???)
http://www.mediafire.com/view/2c4xa21uzo0nu76/12-month YouGov 19 October 2014.jpg#
YouGov moving average chart since 2010 General Election...
http://www.mediafire.com/view/4h5m6aai92thmk9/YouGov since 2010 GE 19 October 2014.jpg#
I noticed on Friday that there have been 1066 YouGov's since the 2010 election. There's something memorable about that number, but I can't recall what it is ;-)
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/6011828/Claims-1m-Farage-donor-harassed-girl-exec.html
The Greens are coming (to split the left's vote), Greens eye twelve seats: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/18/green-party-general-election-12-seats-england
Bristol W amongst others are listed.
NB Betfair have put up a Greens UK seat totals market, I did ask for some of the constituencies such as Bristol W but no luck yet. I'll send them a link to the Guardian article.
Wandered off whilst trawling t'internet. Found this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQr6FYFEjI8
What is is about us Engerlisch? Completely off-board, eclectic and brilliant. Maybe out in-house Scots-born lawyer [Plastic Yourshireman] could explain. Oh; I feel really old for remembering this song....
Labour in Scotland is to ditch the legacy of Tony Blair and return to its “socialist principles” as it seeks to counter the rising Nationalist threat and win power next May, one of the party’s most senior figures has said.
In an article for Scotland on Sunday Shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran says Labour is “no longer the party of a decade ago” and in Ed Miliband now has a leader ready to stand up to big business.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-labour-turns-its-back-on-blair-legacy-1-3577105
I'd agree. And his programme isn't a great advert for Labour. I'm surprised they haven't tried to get it banned.
While the British are also concerned about inequality, [25%] fears about religious and ethnic hatred are even more common in the United Kingdom (39% name it top threat).
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/10/16/what-is-the-greatest-threat-to-the-world-depends-on-where-you-live/
Didn't he say that about the last one ?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11171923/PM-warns-Britains-future-is-at-stake-in-most-important-election-in-a-generation.html
Like the last one....
Once Master Dancer awakes he may find some resonance with this version of the classic...:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1ePVGmP3ek
Mr. Thoughts, I'd not seen that version before. Cheers for posting it.
No, I don’t think so eithjer!
I wonder if advertisers also find men so much more suggestible. Presumably yes or there would not be so many adverts with partially clad women in them.
"“The programme we now have [on immigration] might have been adequate in 1997. But the whole nature of England has changed, with wages and living standards forced down. It is pissing while Roman burns...
...Apart from welfare reforms Ukip have adopted my policies. They want the restrictions that I want. They want justice over who gets social housing. These should all be Labour policies. I know we are supposed to present them as extreme wickedness but they don’t appear like that to lots of Labour voters who thought this was mainstream Labour policy."
Not defecting though
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/14/miliband-immigration-threat-labour-ex-minister-frank-field?CMP=twt_gu
Most adverts are (understandably) geared heavily towards women. Women make about 80% of all purchases, which is why even adverts for things like toiletries aimed specifically at men are often marketed towards women.
It may also explain the irritating and pervasive stereotype of men being moronic/incompetent compared to a dazzlingly clever lady counterpart.
Anyway, I must go get some work done.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2015563/Elisabeth-Murdoch-threw-party-Camerons-cronies-hours-beofre-Milly-Dowler-scandal.html
I seem to recall reading that Bolivian women in the market place smoke ciggies with the burning end in their mouths. Would that help?
Yes was convinced they would win because they really believed that these people would vote. ICM's discount of 50%, which for so long made them the gold standard, was vindicated under even the most extreme pressure of the most exceptional turnout.
All of which is a long way of saying that a more accurate way of assessing UKIP's likely support is to take that element of their support that did not vote at the last election and half it.
(1) Very little support for a Conservative-UKIP electoral pact: it's opposed 63% to 14%. Also at a "local MP" level by 60% to 16%
(2) Not much evidence that voters have a clear view on whether the Tories should be more/less like UKIP. 21% say they'd be more likely to appeal to them if they were more like UKIP, whereas 13% say less likely. 14% say the Tories appeal just as they are, and 39% say they'd never appeal to them.
The difference on the 'more/less likely' seems to be between the current Lib Dem supporters (34% say less likely) and current UKIP supporters (64% say more likely)
(3) Some relief for Dave. 57% think he should stay PM and Conservative leader if he loses Rochester. He's ahead even amongst UKIP supporters (54% to 31%)
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/u8bo20w8ll/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-171014.pdf
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8489984.stm
Some highlights:
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us."
Four years of Osborne as Chancellor and the UK has a government deficit over £100bn and a balance of payments defict over £90bn. The icing on the overconsumption cake is that the UK is now selling government bonds in renminbi.
"In the 19th century we built the railways; in the 20th century we built the motorways. In the 21st century, let's build the super-fast Broadband network."
A good idea. But my broadband isn't any faster than it was in 2010 and the government has decided to throw tens of billions at '19th century' Expense Account Rail.
"we risk a Greek style budget crisis"
How can Osborne be talking about financial problems in Greece ? Haven't the PB Tories told us that the EuroZone problems didn't start until after Osborne had delivered his 2010 budget ?
On smoking, it's interesting that on the long list of options under the "Which, if any, of the following did you find useful in giving up smoking tobacco?" question, 69% picked NOTA.
I've never smoked, but it seems the vast majority of ex-smokers must have found it very hard to give up. Perhaps they're against e-cigarettes, because it's too much of an unhelpful reminder of what they used to be able to do.
Will Burnham be asked about this???
They found a 4 point increase in UKIP's VI.
"Using our usual two-stage prompting, UKIP are doing seven points better in the EP election than in the Westminster election. Using a single list, UKIP are doing eleven points better. This suggests prompting for UKIP in a question on European voting intention would give them a boost of about four points"
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/01/15/measuring-ukips-support/
(YouGov included UKIP in their prompting for the EU Parliament campaign in 2014.)
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/01/16/european-elections-ukip-closes-first-place/
Gordon Brown borrowing shedloads was a really bad thing; George Osborne borrowing shedloads is the genius of the best chancellor ever.
I hope that clears matters up.
The concept of people being able to smoke indoors just doesn't exist any more.
I love it when @audreyanne and co, start to dissimulate and infer that this particular poll is all nonsense. Something that Mike did in his intro with - good old YouGov to the rescue. What these observers can't hide is that UKIP is gaining adherents and supporters and it absolutely KILLS THEM to admit it.
Lots of rental properties in my area are non-smoking too. I guess it's only really do-able indoors 'at will' if you own your own home.
Smoking seems to have become an antisocial activity to do at all, in a way it wasn't even as recently as 10 years ago. Going back a little further (25 years or so) it was pretty much universal: offices, trains, planes, buses, hotels, cafes, restaurants, pubs... you couldn't really avoid it. I used to really resent smokers as selfish, for making me have to inhale it.
I have mixed views. I always detested it in restaurants, but I didn't mind it in pubs or private clubs. Strangely, I like it less walking behind a smoker on the pavement on the high-street (where do you go?) compared to smoking in public parks, which you can by and large avoid.
I don't particularly like entering large shopping centres, or office buildings now, as you often have to waft through a cloud of fuggy tobacco outside the main entrance.
The biggest world-wide economic crisis since the 30's was all Labour's fault including the collapse of Lehmann, huge support for banks everywhere etc. etc.
Labour borrowed less than 40% of GDP right until the beginning of 2007. Less than Germany.
Today, our borrowings is approaching 90% of GDP.
"The established conventions for question design in market research would be to ask for a spontaneous response, i.e without mentioning any possible choices, or prompt with all the main alternatives.
By this yardstick it becomes difficult to justify continuing to omit mention of UKIP at least, and arguably other smaller parties as well, as they appear to add up to a choice for almost one in five of those who would vote in a new election."
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2013/08/07/take-polls-with-large-pinch-of-salt-do-not-consume-in-excess/
So no need to be confused , you just have to change your belief system.
Peter Hitchens mocks the Tories' ludicrous pretences on immigration and the EU: http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2014/10/so-how-long-will-it-be-before-we-invite-the-is-jihadis-to-a-white-tie-dinner-.html …
The biggest world-wide economic crisis since the 30's was all Labour's fault
I'm glad you finally accept that.
@AdamBienkov: Labour's privatisation of the NHS was good but the government's privatisation of the NHS is bad, Andy Burnham tells #marr
However the budget after the GE , will tell you everything.
If the present government continues in office 25% VAT, will be your appetiser.
When Mrs Stodge and I ate out in Cork after Ireland introduced a smoking ban (and before the UK) it was quite literally "a breath of fresh air". I think the smoking ban revolutionised dining in London and elsewhere and made eating out a real experience. I appreciate what it's done to "the traditional boozer" but it's made pubs much more pleasant places in my view.
The "smoking room" is now the pavement for many and as you say not easy for the rest of us to avoid. I also agree that smoking in parks is much less an issue.
And in the UK people know what's what. Labour massacred the economy during their term of office.
- they overspent
- they hollowed our manufacturing
- they pushed debts off balance sheet
- they founded the tax base on thin ice
- they ignored taxpayer value for money
You lot are crap at the economy, it's surprising you just can't admit it to yourselves and apologise to the rest of us.
As people here have noticed, it has become unacceptable very quickly - say in the last 10 years - and each cigarette now costs 50p apart from anything else - if it's not smuggled.
I'm interested in this "ban" in rented housing. How do landlords enforce it?
Are there any betting odds for 2 general elections during 2015 ?
It's not attractive and especially for a landlord trying to get tenants.
First it was too far, too fast supposedly wreaking the economy with excessive cuts which were going to lead to mass unemployment. Then we found ourselves with the fastest growing economy in the EU generating more jobs than the rest of the EU put together.
Now it seems to be "why haven't you fixed this for us already?" no doubt so they can do the same again boosting wildly excessive borrowing to "invest" and create more "growth" that can drown in a sea of debt.
The fact is that the damage done to the UK economy in the years 2002-2010 was profound and will take at least a generation to put right, longer if we are daft enough to put Labour in charge in that period. We need to massively increase our output, we need to moderate our consumption, we need to eliminate the government and trade deficits and we need to start paying back the trillion we will have added to the national debt whilst this is happening. Actually it is more likely to take 2 generations, isn't it?
Which was the last UK government you rated on the economy ?
This might illuminate us .
As for the future policy direction, we now have the ludicrous prospect of the Conservatives, far from wanting to reduce the deficit, actually making it worse with unfunded tax cuts as the crudest of vote-winning bribes.
Whatever happened to 80:20 cuts to tax rises ? What taxes will be increased to reduce the deficit from 2015-20 ? How much will spending be cut and where will the cuts be made given so much spending is ring-fenced (another absurdity) ?
Conservative economic policy is frankly a nonsense and seems almost predicated on the assumption they will be in Opposition from 2015-20.
The prognosis for the next five years under either main party looks less good. Perhaps each is hoping to blame the betrayal of their current unaffordable promises on a hapless coalition partner.
Last night I saw someone who had moved back to London after spending five years abroad, and she said she could definitely notice the increase in congestion over only that time. Another friend in the group pointed out that just 15 years ago, when the Christmas lights went up, they used to drive down from north London (zone 3), park in Oxford street (!) and walk along looking at the displays in every window. With immigration remaining at current levels, London's going to be truly hell in another 15 years. Even with a top rate construction plan, there's no way we can accommodate the population surge we have now in the capital. It's completely unsustainable if the governments cares about people's standard of living.
The shit he caused by bouncing the UK in to the ERM as chancellor for a short term interest gain for party advantage.
It's worth mentioning that my grandma only ever, by her own rules, smoked in just one room of her house (the kitchen) and even then she'd do it with the back door at least ajar if not usually fully open and the internal door to the rest of the house closed. These actions didn't stop the smell being all pervading in the house though - even for several years after she'd given up smoking.
Strangely however the UKs early failure in the ERM has been the silver lining in the cloud; it made the UK population as a whole skepitical of any closer currency or political Union and it also highlighted through the acts of the Bundesbank that the UK would get no favours or help in a crisis. Without it Blair would quite happily have had us in the Euro and now facing Greek or Italian levels of decline.
A summary of the last month.
Chart: YouGov for last month
Bounce up for Conservatives after conference, then revert.
Bounce up for UKIP for by-election then revert.
Labour drop after Miliband Speech, and stay down.
LibDems steady on around 7.
And a Birmingham Mail investigation has discovered how police, councils and social services have been failing vulnerable victims in a new abuse scandal which follows those identified in Rotherham, Rochdale and Derbyshire.
The shocking statistics are contained in a confidential report from West Midlands Police.
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/west-midlands-police-report-reveals-7948902
I think the Lib Dems with Connect and the Tories with Blue Chip and Merlin will probably pick this up. I'm not sure Labour will as they rarely analyze data using it just to confirm their pre-conceived ideas of what is happening. I therefore expect Labour to suffer disproportionally from these UKIP tactics, which could have a significant effect in some areas.
So, counter-intuitively UKIPs tactics could help the Tories, and even more oddly the Lib Dems in certain seats!
When/if the crunch comes (it won't if Ed Miliband is Prime Minister) the EU will need to decide whether it wishes to accommodate the UK within the EU or to require the UK to fit within the existing structures. All the evidence suggests that they will opt for the former if a deal can be done.
However, i expect that a deal cannot be done, largely because the Eurosceptics are completely unclear in their own minds what they actually want to achieve.
It's important to be objective about UKIPs prospects if we are going to bet right. The key assessment we have to make is to examine what their strategy will be. Obviously some of this will depend upon the Rochester result. However, they are planning, according to my sources, a significant campaign of advertisements in the local press next month, at least here in the East of England. They are also adopting a strategy to maximise their presence even in seats where they have no serious prospects or where they think there will be major press attention during the GE Campaign. They are currently concentrating on main roads in these areas, trying to get as many poster sites as possible to give them an impact well beyond their actual support levels.
I think the Lib Dems with Connect and the Tories with Blue Chip and Merlin will probably pick this up. I'm not sure Labour will as they rarely analyze data using it just to confirm their pre-conceived ideas of what is happening. I therefore expect Labour to suffer disproportionally from these UKIP tactics, which could have a significant effect in some areas.
So, counter-intuitively UKIPs tactics could help the Tories, and even more oddly the Lib Dems in certain seats!
And it is not simply a matter of existing structures. Cameron is trying to claim that he can and will win concessions on free movement - probably the most fundamental principle of the whole basis of the EU. And one that will only be changed through a new treaty. Do you really imagine for a second that all 28 countries will agree to such a change?
UKIP's and Labours economic policies are even more in denial than the coalition parties. We should not be running a deficit at this phase in the economic cycle.
1. Cap on EU migration to say 75,000 a year.
2. Opt-out of the CAP
3. Opt-out of the CET
4. Anti-corruption reforms throughout the institution
That would make EU membership worth it.
When/if the crunch comes, pressure would be applied successfully to ensure that all recalcitrants fall into line.
True. But many people in this country don't seem to understand and just think a Mansion Tax, or The 1%, or something will pay for everything. Then there wouldn't be any need for cutbacks.
Getting the message across to moderate consumption is not easy.
Moderating consumption is a lot easier when you have an excess of money to spend.
Unfortunately most of the moderating has been done by those with the least.