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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rochester punters unmoved by the CON primary and Cameron visit: UKIP still a 77.5% chance
We are just five weeks away from the Rochester & Strood by-election and today David Cameron visited the area to meet local businesses as well as the two women competing to be the CON candidate.
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Mind you given the way he shafted Roger Lord, Carswell be quite the hypocritical liar.
Have you had premature peaking before?
A visit to the "sausage surgeon" is definitely recommended.
(For those fresh to this thread, see the previous one)
I'm just saying it will be closer than Betfair implies.
AllyPally_Rob said:
» show previous quotes
Very close in the Walker race, think he has a 1-2 point lead, however I'd back him to win because of the bad blood over the recall in 2012. He managed to hold on then, I'd guess he'll do it again.
Other governors races look a bit brighter for team Blue, they'll win Pennsylvania, should win in Maine (against a lunatic GOP governor) and have a good shot in Michigan. Colorado, Illinois & Florida are coin tosses. Georgia could be a surprise too with Jason Carter ( Jimmy's grandson) putting in a decent fight.
Thanks again, Ally.
Anybody who thinks Walker will hold on should back him now for the nomination. There are some pretty fancy odds available. I thought he'd coast in and backed him early, but his odds have lengthened since as the Governor race has tightened.
Interesting news about Georgia. I remember Obama nearly took that in his annus mirabalis. Would have won me two grand if he had, but I can't complain, as I was one of the many PBers who took OGH's 50/1 winning tip on the guy.
I take it you are not one of the three remaining people on earth who haven't heard about that?
20/1 you are an opportunist Mr TSE
I was thinking of you (and DavidL) earlier as the latest lurch to the right on immigration was announced.
I would be interested if there would ever be a point when you no longer supported the Tories.
As you may remember I voted against LAB after Iraq is there any policy that would cause you enough concern to change your vote?
Even if it is a way of working around the rules, the delay in selecting a candidate must work in his favor.
It's 'Reckless vs A N Other'. That's the line to play.
http://cdn.static-economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/original-size/images/print-edition/20141018_BRC019.png
Chris Grayling is making me doubt the merits of voting Tory.
There's a few reasons that may make me stop voting Tory in the future.
1) If social conservative became the orthodoxy of the party
2) If the Tory party engaged in widespread nationalisation
3) If the party ignored the will of the people after a plebiscite (on any topic) or tried to carry out another referendum to get the right result.
4) engaged in anti Americanism
I'm sure there are other reasons if I put my mind to it
For the GOP 2016 nomination I would keep an eye on Susana Martinez and Kelly Ayotte (although the latter has a horrible speaking tone).
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/rowenna-davis/2012/06/spread-betting-shops-shows-coalitions-failure-growth
And this from the party of Super Casinos!
Not sure the hippy look quite suits Peston....
Seriously, this is one of the most unpredictable elections I can recall and the chances of the Tories seizing at least one seat from Labour must be big odds on, even if in the end EICIPM.
Gotta be careful on a betting Site mate, or somebody is always likely to play the Betcha gambit!
This must be easily verifiable – is there not an ‘political agent’ in the PB house?
Reckless is about 2/7 off a 9pt lead which isn't far wrong
If Survation overstate Reckless to the same degree they did Carswell, I think Reckless would win by 7.2%
At least I won't be voting LibDem in 2015, like our favourite Sheffield native
1. Health: People that live within a 1/2 mile radius of a fracking well have a 66% higher cancer rate.
- Colorado School of Public Health
2. Global Warming: Up to 9% of methane produced from fracking seeps into the atmosphere. Methane is 100x more potent as a greenhouse gas than C02, over the next 20 years
-Dr. Ingraffea: Dwight C Baum Professor of Engineering at Cornell University
3. Ozone: Ground level ozone in some rural places, where there is fracking, is worse than ozone levels in downtown LA.
-Wyoming Department of Health, http://www.health.wyo.gov/phsd/ehl/index.html
4. A gag order in the state of Colorado prevents your doctor from informing you if you have fracking fluids in your blood, making it much harder for you to get well.
-COGCC, cogcc.state.co.us/forms/pdf_forms/form35.pdf
5. Poisoning Water: More than 5000 spills have been registered with COGCC (CO State website) and approximately 43% have contaminated groundwater.
-COGCC Website
6. Water Depletion: Each well uses approximately 3-8 million gallons of water over its lifetime.
-Dr. Jeffery Time
7. Toxic Chemicals: Of the 300-odd chemicals presumed in fracking fluid, 40% are endocrine disrupting, 1/3 are suspected carcinogens and 1/3 are developmental toxicants. Over 60% of these chemicals can harm the brain and nervous system.
-Colborn T, Kwiatkowski C, Schultz K, and Bachran M. 2011. Hum Ecol Risk Assess
So maybe there is an equivalent in 2015 out there
Martinez was one of my long-range long odds punts many moons ago, but I've heard little of her since and had assumed she is not in the running.
The other name I don't know, but since I seem to have backed 75% of the field already, I'll let this one pass.
Incidentally, I like the name. Does it commemorate the eponymous racetrack that once thrived in North London?
I said last week that things were happening in Scotland, but with only aggregated crosstabs to base my estimates on, I couldn't quite be sure, becuase although aggregation creates a usable sample size, it doesn't solve the problem of the weighting only being applied at GB-wide level, rather than to every individual subset.
What we needed was a Scottish poll with proper demographic weighting. And now, synthetically at least, we have one.
The electionforecast site is a joint project by experts at UEA, LSE and Durham, which uses a partial mean-reversion from current polling to forecast vote shares at the next election. From their current UK poll-of-polls, it looks like they are currently assuming that 41.5% of the swing since 2010 will be reversed (this amount will lessen as the election approaches).
But rather than forecasting using a UNS, the uses the underlying YouGov microdata (augmented with demographic data and other polling) to estimate seats directly. This has all kinds of advantages, but the key thing in this instance is that it allows proper weighting (by them) of subsets of the data in course of producing their forecast, which they publish all the way down to vote share at seat level.
If we assume a pattern of turnout similar to 2010, we can derive forecast vote shares from their seat-level vote projections. And by running the mean reversion in reverse (based on my estimate above) we can imply current voting intention in Scotland, fully weighted to Scottish demographics. The implied VI, with the updated aggregation method for comparison is here:
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/scotland-update-is-snp-surge-real.html
How do you delete your PB account so that none of your past posts show?
Thanks Peter, it rather boringly refers to the part of London I live in (Muswell Hill) and also the best view of the capital from anywhere in London IMHO.
(No peeking at Wiki.)
See
http://www.libdemvoice.org/a-setback-for-ukip-in-the-european-parliament-courtesy-of-one-latvian-mep-42938.html
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/rochester-and-strood-by-election/winning-party
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29646414
Rather like Muswell Hill myself, although I'm familiar with it mainly from driving through on my way to Highgate Ponds.
If I'm not mistaken, The Kinks came from Muswell Hill. And Peter Sellers lived there for a while, in a house now owned by Mackenzie Crook.
So not that boring.
In fact I checked Wiki and was surprised to learn the track I had in mind was actually in Surrey, though commonly thought of as London.
Muswell Hill is indeed a nice area, I think it's one of those parts of London that's always been 'nice' rather than 'up and coming'. Peter Sellers and the Kinks are both correct, as is Dennis Nilsen (perhaps the residents try and forget about the latter?).
I have shamefully yet to ever take a dip in Highgate ponds, always looks bloody freezing regardless of the time of year!
Basically how are they monitored?
For example if I am party HQ and want to stand candidate A in a seat what exactly stops me running an open primary with candidates A,B and C as a way of generating publicity and then just ignore the actual result and make up some figures giving candidate A the job?
This is a genuine question not a troll. I would hope there is some sort of independent monitoring involved
These should be used to inform, but not for reliance. Anything under a 5 point lead either way should be viewed as too close to call, albeit with one party a nose ahead. 5-10 point leads, simply as that party is favourite (but not in the bank). I'd be willing to say that 10+ point leads are (at the moment!) "in the bank. All of this, though, is in the absence of any more pertinent local information
Which gives:
2 Labour in the bank - Brentford & Isleworth and Enfield North.
2 Labour favourite (to the extent that Reckless is currently favourite in the by-election) - Ipswich and Hastings & Rye
1 really confusing (Corby) - it's TCTC with Labour a nose ahead on the normal question, but nearly in the bank for them on the constituency question
6 TCTC. Labour a nose ahead in Brighton Kemptown, Hove, and Nuneaton, a short nose ahead in Halesowen & Rowley Regis, a dead heat in Pudsey, and the Tories a short nose ahead in Gloucester.
Beyond that, the data is insufficiently robust to support any other conclusion.
Labour must be relieved that they've got a couple in the bank, strong favourites in 2 or 3 more, and have their noses ahead (even if only just) in most of the rest, but the Tories have it all to play for in more than half of these and are still well in the game.
MEP. All EFDD need to do is suborn another MEP.
The EPP's manoeuvres are pathetic.
If a population of one million people lived within a half-mile of those wells there would be an excess of 10 cancers over base rates and for a million people living more than a half-mile away there would an excess of six cases.
Environmentalists took the difference between those two numbers (10 and 6) and made the calculation that there was a 66 percent increase in risk in the half-mile zone. A simple bit of arithmetic that is completely wrong.
The overall age-adjusted incidence of cancer in a population of a million men and women was about 4,600 between 2004 and 2008, according to the National Institute of Cancer.
The lifetime risk rate for getting a cancer is 44.8 percent for men and 38 percent for women, according to the American Cancer Society.
In a population of one million 10 excess cancer cases would represent something in the order of 0.25 percent increase and six excess cases would be 0.15 percent increase. So, the difference is not 66 percent, but 0.1 percent
http://blogs.denverpost.com/thebalancesheet/2013/06/18/a-tricky-calculation-the-risk-of-cancer-from-drilling/10063/2/
.
Did they build the reservoirs over the site?
"I have shamefully yet to ever take a dip in Highgate ponds, always looks bloody freezing regardless of the time of year! "
It's pretty nippy now. It was 13C this morning and that will probably be my last swim until April, but it's been a great summer with the water temperature 18/23C between May and mid-September.
I strongly recommend a visit, but you do have to be a reasonably good swimmer, otherwise the lifeguards throw you out (and it's 330m for a full lap, so you may need a tow if you're not used to it.)
How to destroy the credibility of an article that discusses UKIP? Reference that disgusting ignorant UKIP hating obsessive creature Crick (Ken Clarke is less anti UKIP).
The reason the primary complaints have been muted is everyone is closely scrutinising the Tories expenditure because chances they've already blown over half their budget.
EXCLUSIVE: Election Law Says £40K Tory Splurge on 'Open Primary' Will Count Towards Rochester Spending Limits
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/10/15/Legal-Advice-Reveals-Tories-on-Dodgy-Ground-in-Rochester
The argument seems rock solid and certainly extremely persuasive. Shapps will need to be very careful coz whatever happens his candidate could end up in court being disqualified
I think it was a housing development rather than reservoirs. So London is left with just Kempton and Sandown now, although happily both are prospering.
I'd love to see racing in Hyde Park. It would be a great tourist attraction. Paris seems to manage OK with Longchamps.
Perhaps somebody should suggest it to Boris.
Who knows? In five years' time, you could be voting UKIP.
the letter from David Cameron to Rochester voters went out just before the writ was moved, so the Tories will no doubt argue that legally the cost cannot be included as part of their election spending.
That surely means the cost is definitively not included in the campaign limit.
There are other wheezes as well. I'm sure it will all be above board, but I would expect that the effective spend on this by-election by the Conservatives will be considerable.
I looked at this earlier. From all the Ashcroft marginal polls, the seat total on the basis of a 5%+ lead = seat won.
CON 289
LAB 284
LD 45
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
This obviously underestimates Labour who are ahead in most Con/Lab marginals and there are some Labour friendly seats which haven't been polled yet.
They're shabby AND pathetic
Whether you agree with them or not, UKIP and its ilk represent a strand of the public and have the right to be heard
The Greyhound Racing track at Walthamstow has, sadly, also been closed down. It was one of the best tracks in country right to the end.
If that did happen, I would find it rather amusing but for the Tories it could be useful. Being disqualified from the election means you cannot lose it and removes ant cachet from the winner because they were not up against the main contender.
Just wanted to demonstrated to @isam that I'm a man of the people, I am
;-)
The baseline is if the conservatives get away with not counting it then we can be assured that we will have a lot more of these with the aim not of furthering democracy but of evading the expenses limit. I have also asked them the question I asked here earlier about oversight. Should I get a reply that is anyway enlightening on the subject I will post it
I am easily confused
Last night they held a public meeting where the eventual candidate pitched their campaign position to members of the Rochester & Strood public specifically regarding the by election election campaign.
Just because the Tories haven't made up their mind who their final candidate is doesn't mean that the eventual candidate is not already campaigning because they clearly are. Next the Tories will be saying that Cameron's visit to Rochester today was purely incidental .
The Tories might think it is a cute stunt but It doesn't even pass the most basic of smell tests. If they try to overspend they will get stuffed!
More bad news for Tories and Labour in our @YouGov later tonight. Another combined % new low in this Parliament; 4 / 5 party politics grows.
It is one of life's little ironies that whilst racing, and betting, condemn many to poverty, it helped my family to escape it. My Dad was well-known for decades as one of the shrewdest punters at Clapton dogs, so despite being working-class in every normal respect we were very comfortably off throughout my entire upbringing.
I'm not in his class, but I like to think I am carrying on a family tradition when I'm betting, here and of course at the racetrack.
"... So London is left with just Kempton and Sandown now, although happily both are prospering."
Point of order Mr. Chairman, both Kempton and Sandown are in Surrey not London. Kempton Park is essentially just over the river from the old Hurst Park course and Sandown is in Esher.
London does not have a horse racing course.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/522815813297143808
However as you feel its exactly the same I suggest you do as I do and lodge a complaint with the electoral commision
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/complaints
I have had long running battles with GP and FOE.
I certainly rank it in my top 5.
Not yet visited Kempton but i intend to at some point during this NH season.Any meeting you recommend?
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver · 5m5 minutes ago
Thurrock Labour activists today told me and voters that UKIP want to put people in gas chambers. Desperate politics from a party in decline.
Loving the idea of "ant cachet" though, very New Romantic.
I am sure you are right. All parties will try all stunt to get their candidate in. Look at Labour pushing the writ for the Middleton election practically before the previous MP's body had gone cold. That was distasteful too.
PS Of course if we take your interpretation we would then need also to take into account all the very public personal smearing of Reckless by Shapps, Johnson and others into account as well surely . So that argument wouldn't get you any further anyway.
(From the "4/5 party" hint)
I like Kempton too, but avoid the King George (Boxing Day) as it is overcrowded and overpriced. Any other meeting - jumps, flat or all-weather - is fine.
You must at some point try to visit Cheltenham, but I recommend the Open Meeting in November rather than the mayhem that is The Festival.
York is in most people's top three. Cartmel and Fontwell are two are the best small tracks, though these days most small tracks offer pretty good value and excellent facilities.
I dislike Ascot, but it's a personal view.