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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the second consecutive day YouGov’s UKIP share moves to a record high
The record polling shares continue for UKIP with the latest YouGov daily poll moving up from yesterday’s 18% to 19% this morning. The latest figures have CON on 31% and LAB on 33% a joint main two party aggregate of just 64% which is a record low for this parliament.
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I've taken a pop at Lord A's polling re. the Labour share, but I'd love to see him poll in Labour areas not just the Con-Lab marginals. It would also be very useful to know what's going on in LibDem seats.
I wonder if GE2015 might sound the death-knell for FPTP? I've clung onto the notion that UKIP will slip back, which I still think is the case, but suppose we have a situation of a party winning a clear majority on around 33% or 34% of the vote, something that's entirely feasible. Is that really sustainable on moral and democratic grounds?
Perhaps an irony of this parliament is that Cameron and Clegg have shown that coalition government can work, and work fine. Back to PR?
The Alternative Vote referendum may have killed some form of proportional representation for a generation.
I'm on record as stating the #indyref (in regards to Scotland, a so called nation-state, currently within the UK) would not.
EDITED - typo
EDIT 2 - not a typo, I corrected a word (for reference to fans, readers, lurkers and those with time on their hands - changed "with" to "within"
PS - I understand the Finnish idiom, translated into english (I think directly), for the type of behavior I have just displayed - is "Comma-fucker"
Good point JBriskin.
It's the #indyref Debate (capitalization for emphasis) that has not been killed. I am not stating that an Independent Scotland (so to speak) is inevitable.
http://www.mediafire.com/view/a5o5e093hb3ma87/12-month YouGov 16 October 2014.jpg#
FPT
IshmaelX (sp. ?) - was asking a question where the answer number five stood out.
He said if you can't answer that question you are stupid.
Well I admit I am about 24 hours late, and have utilized google somewhat-
However,
If this was an essay question the answer could be 5 ("Labour Value", a marxist term)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_theory_of_value
I have used scare quotes because I may have logged yet another neologism.
Long Reign JBriskin
During one of our many discussions on energy in the past, I've mentioned potential dark-knight schemes that might solve many problems. Many of these are promoted by people who might be charlatans, but one promising fusion source - a High-Beta fusion reactor - was alluded to in a single video by a Lockheed Martin Skunkworks person early last year, during a Google 'Solve for X' talk. It was important because LM are not sort of company to mention such a thing - and say it was promising - unless they were really onto something.
Well, yesterday they announced that they have made progress, and are looking for industry and governmental partners to take it forward, with a prototype within a year.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/15/lockheed-breakthrough-nuclear-fusion-energy?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/lockheed-claims-breakthrough-on-fusion-energy1/
There's a long way to go, but it has to be a better use of funds than ITER ...
Roger Helmer should be moved on from Energy Spokesman for UKIP, if the Ukippers fancy their chances of landing 100 MPs.
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115908091
5 or under
6-10
11-15
16-20
21-25
26 and over
I think we still need renewables and methods to store the renewable energy (flow batteries etc) in the meantime.
BTW if it fits on a truck, would there be a version for a DeLorean ;-) ?
However AV's lack of proportionality was not lost on me at the time.
They may be part of the industrial-military complex, but they're also believable.
It seems that by shrinking the size of the magnetic containment they've been able to contain the plasma in a more efficient manner. Which goes contrary to my (albeit limited) knowledge, which said that it was easier to contain if you went bigger (hence ITER). Heating the plasma with radio waves is an interesting idea.
For more info:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_beta_fusion_reactor
It may come to nothing, or not be practical for many end-purposes, and so yes, we need to continue developing other areas of tech. But it's very promising.
One driver for the Green's advance may be worries about fracking and apparently it's worrying for the Tories http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/fracking/10828543/Government-drive-for-fracking-losing-thousands-of-Tory-votes-Lord-Howell-warns.html
Maybe this is one of UKIPs policies that won't prove popular once it's more widely known
http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2014/10/15/the-inside-story-of-the-labour-reshuffle-that-never-was/
In summary, Ed Milliband wanted to move Ed Balls, but couldn't after Heywood and Middleton.
I have no idea whether it is credible.
Some have suggested that this might be related to some of the oil price drop.
For people who want to know more:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer
Quite a lot of this is being driven by the inability of our political class to provide much in the way of bread and circuses as we had become accostomed to. Does this mean that there might be even more opportunities for UKIP when the Miliband premiership falls apart in the next Parliament? Quite possibly so.
One issue about many mental illnesses is that they switch on and off - people can be OK some days, but depressed/scared/etc. another.
My old company Novartis in Switzerland had a scheme which I always felt reflected very well on them: long-serving staff who developed mental illness would be transferred to a budget which wasn't charged to the department cost centre. For instance, I had a secretary with chronic depression. I couldn't rely on her coming every day, but when she came (3-4 days a week) she was excellent, and she cost my budget nothing. So I put aside filing etc. for her to do when she was there, and we were both happy.
The key thing was that the budget was SECRET - talking about it was a disciplinary offence, and telling someone they were on it was a serious breach. So she felt she was a valued normal member of staff - and felt guilty about not being able to work every day, but we were able to reassure her that we thought she was so good it was OK. The company got zero benefit out of it in PR - they just felt it was the right thing to do. It was a factor in making me want to keep working for them - I never looked for a job with another company simply because I liked them for this and other reasons.
How that transfers into national policy is not so easy to work out. Freud's idea of topping up sub-minimum wages is similar but has the snags I discussed yesterday (undermining the minimum wage, basically). Probably a national basic income, as EiT suggested, is the only economically clean way to do it, but hugely expensive.
Andrea Rossi’s E-Cat — the device that purports to use cold fusion to generate massive amounts of cheap, green energy – has been verified by third-party researchers, according to a new 54-page report. The researchers observed a small E-Cat over 32 days, where it produced net energy of 1.5 megawatt-hours, or “far more than can be obtained from any known chemical sources in the small reactor volume.” The researchers were also allowed to analyze the fuel before and after the 32-day run, noting that the isotopes in the spent fuel could only have been obtained by “nuclear reactions” — a conclusion that boggles the researchers: “… It is of course very hard to comprehend how these fusion processes can take place in the fuel compound at low energies.”
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/191754-cold-fusion-reactor-verified-by-third-party-researchers-seems-to-have-1-million-times-the-energy-density-of-gasoline
Budgets lol
Not sure why Heywood changed any game though.
But the fundamental problem for the Tories is that the "vote Farage, get Miliband" argument is not going to work at all if the parties are in shouting distance of each other. Even we nerds can't work out which parties are in pole position where, so how is the average only vaguely interested voter supposed to do it? Arguably parties need to attack UKIP's other policies, but they're a moveable feast and not especially linked to why people vote for them. Simply attacking Farage as a posh amateur with shifting convictions is probably what the others will fall back on - he's quite good but by no means invincible.
But note: Rossi's past actions have been more akin to a snake-oil salesman than a scientist. In science, grand claims require grand proofs, and he has been hesitant to allow anything like sufficient independent verification.
In this, he's very much like the late Maurice Ward with his 'Starlite' heat-absorbing gel: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlite.
But he might be genuine, as I believe Ward was with Starlight. But I'm very sceptical.
Maybe Yougov now specifically prompt for UKIP - which tends to increase the chance that someone will say they'll vote UKIP. I think previously UKIP were an invisible part of 'other'.
(and the first rule of mental health club is that you don't talk about mental health club)
The exact opposite of professional and mainstream media advice.
Asking for a friend.
Today's YouGov shows that the Cons have their lowest 2010 VI retention at 67% whilst losing 24% to UKIP.
YouGov changed its methodology on August 27th in order to reflect UKIP more accurately.
When they publish fuller the proposals, it must be judged on the ratios required to get to the five figures net immigration pledge. EU gross immigration is about 150-200k a year. So an equivalent 60% reduction in that means getting it down to about 60k-80k overall. Let's see if his proposed cap does that. If it does, then Cameron will have have genuinely put out a major demand for repatriation. I've previously suggested he would need 2-3 for his repatriation to be serious.
Also, the free hit here is for HMG to insist that free movement only refers to labour. Unemployed beggars shouldn't be able to come here without a job. We can clearly demand that back without breaching one of the four freedoms, so it's a no-brainer.
During the last four years there has been a 23% increase in employment among those born overseas while only a 2% increase in employment of UK born people.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=JF6F&dataset=lms&table-id=08
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=JF6G&dataset=lms&table-id=08
Understand this and you will understand why real wages are falling, productivity stagnating, inequality rising and government borrowing remaining over £100bn each year.
The UK labour market is analogous to having an air conditioning unit working next to an open window. The harder it works the more it will suck in fresh people from outside. Added to this, having a welfare state with free health and education also acts as an incentive for low skilled immigration.
Now what happens when the UK next has a recession ?
There was a very interesting interview at ~6.30am on ITV's Good Morning with the father of a disabled son in his 30s. Currently this son does 1 day a week of voluntary work plus college which will come to an end soon. His son's problem is that his attention span is about 30 minutes, is forgetful and tires easily.
The possibility of stocking supermarket shelves was aired and the father felt that his son would require a lot of supervision which he acknowledged would be an extra cost to the employer. Also he said that his son would be delighted to be able to work about 25 hours a week for £50 as it would give him a purpose in life.
Whilst Lord Freud may have used his words incorrectly, he felt that Lord Freud had identified a true problem, where disabled people who require greater supervision than normal should not fall under the minimum wage trap but be paid a small wage, when the really important matter was to give these people a new purpose, incentive and direction in lifestyle and not feel useless.
I believe that Remploy used to 'employ' a lot of such people, but read that some of their factories have closed - perhaps a rethink required.
As an aside, we had a graduate intern for the summer 3 months who did his M.Sc dissertation with us. Whilst we paid for his living expenses (but not beer money), we estimate that our lost consultancy time due to having to supervise him was a 35% of his time here - so about one month for which our lost consultancy income was about £20,000.
DISOWNED
EDITED
Of course oil is getting cheaper at the moment. Surely we need to factor in the political and financial risks of being dependant on Russia and the Middle East for some of our energy needs. Climate change will also cost us and cause us problems.
"...by 2020 around 23% of household electricity bills will be as a result of climate change policy."
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201314/cmhansrd/cm130910/halltext/130910h0001.htm
Since we in the UK cannot generate enough non-nuclear green energy to meet demand in even the best circumstances using current tech, 100% green energy would mean dropping demand significantly. The political and financial risks of that are obvious.
Our IT guy has a physical disability but there is nothing wrong with his brain. So we give him the use of one of our pool cars (including fuel) and a mobile phone - that is his requested method of payment for the odd days a month he helps us out.
Are you third sector in some way Mr Financier?
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/08/27/update-labour-lead-4/
They still don't include UKIP in their prompt.
http://yougov.co.uk/publicopinion/methodology/
As detached from reality as many politicians.
Robbie Savage said, " To be completely honest, during my 20-year playing career, I never once thought about how much it was costing fans to go to games.
Other players might have been different, but I did not meet any.
I never discussed the issue with any of my team-mates at any of my clubs and, whoever I was playing for, ticket prices did not cross my mind once, let alone how much the pies or the programme were.
I cannot imagine things have changed much in the last few years.
The truth is that most Premier League players live in a bubble. If you ask most of them what a ticket costs, they would not have a clue."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/29638128
Source and link please.
Until there is a law that mandates employing people with disabilities over those without disabilities (relevant to the job) then that issue will exist.
Lord Freud, from what I have read, did not (choose to) explain in sufficient depth the critical issue.
As an aside, Bbc had a lot of - to put it bluntly - very crappy numbers relating to the cost of/for football fans last evening.
1 - Management are making determinations about peopIe's mentaI heaIth without teIIing them.
2 - I'm not sure how you keep it secret from someone in this age of Subject Access Requests under Data Protection Iaw.
3 - I suspect that Unions wouId have kittens about companies making secret judgements behind cIosed doors, and start sIinging mud as per.
The two huge probIems as I see it with minimum wage is the effect on youth empIoyment. If the Govt are going to mandate that peopIe with no experience be paid the same as peopIe with 3-4 years' experience what wiII happen? Or rather, what did happen ... a reported by the Iow Pay Unit:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/288841/The_National_Minimum_Wage_LPC_Report_2014.pdf
The other is that disabIed peopIe capabIe of some work but who cannot justify a fuII wage are Ieft vegetating in front of Jeremy KyIe rather than being abIe to take aprt in society.
I think it refIects terribIy on MiIiband that he chose to sIing mud rather than engage in a debate.
Must be one of these We Should Do Something to Gain Headlines stories just before the election.
My problem with Rossi's e-Cat is this: if I was a clever man wanting to perpetuate a fraud, I would do exactly what he is doing. Until he gets reputable teams to do proper independent and repeatable tests, I'm remaining highly sceptical.
We have some degree of market efficiency here, what is the proposal to do to change it?
2 "sIing mud"s in one post. Cue to cunning Iinguist poIice...
Just having a look through YouGov's latest numbers. A couple of things strike me.
Firstly, when asked what the most important issue facing the country is - immigration comes joint top on 55%. Yet, when asked what is most important issue facing their own families, it drops down to 21%. If UKIP is solely (mainly?) about this issue, then when people actually come to vote will they be thinking about the good of the country or just their own families.
Secondly, YouGov seem to weight partly based on newspaper readership. I'm no polling anorak but surely the young don't bother with newspapers anymore. So how does that weighting help with their age group voting sample?
More child sexual exploitation scandals like the one that happened in Rotherham will be uncovered in the coming months, a police chief has said.
Norfolk Chief Constable Simon Bailey told the Guardian that child sex crimes had "for too long been hidden".
He also said teachers and doctors should do more to spot signs of abuse.
At least 1,400 children were sexually exploited in Rotherham from 1997 to 2013, mainly by gangs of men of Pakistani heritage.
Mr Bailey, the leading officer within the Association of Chief Police Officers concerned with the issue of child abuse, has warned that the scale of the problem nationwide could be larger than previously thought.
"We don't know for sure. But I think it's tens of thousands of victims [a year] of an appalling crime," Mr Bailey said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29639374
If a 25 year old turns up at an interview along with an equally qualified 63 year old, who will the employers be most likely to hire? Or should the 63 year old be able to offer them their services at below minimum wage?
The principles are the same are they not?
It is or should be all about ability to do the job. What (dear God I hope) Freud was saying is that in the PersonA/PersonB scenario, the state levels the playing field. The employer pays for and gets £6.50/hr worth of value from Person A and pays for and gets, say, £2/hr worth of value from Person B with the State topping up Person B's wages so that Person B makes £6.50/hr in wages also.
I'm sure that model is fraught with flaws but that seems to be the gist of what Freud was saying, wasn't it?
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/oct/15/rotherham-child-sexual-abuse-scandal-tip-iceberg-police-chief
I see that The Guardian has very wisely limited the comments to zero. One for he cage rattlers.
I also note that this story was given more room than the crap over Freud's remarks, so there is something for the lefty outraged types to complain about.
A strange sort of hiatus. Nothing happens for a few weeks, then we have three races in the first three weeks or so of November, the attempt to land on the comet, the Rochester by-election, and, of course, Dragon Age: Inquisition (apparently they're releasing Shadow of Mordor on the same day, which seems a bit stupid for both games, but there we are).
It's the logical flaws in the system that are the problem, not the fact that a disabled person should be able to work if they want to.
By making an exception for one group, you open the way to exceptions for others.
As I have said before, argue against the minimum wage, and you are on firmer ground and the inconsistencies are avoided.
They say you're getting older when you think the police look young.
I must be getting very old because the politicians seem to be getting ever more childish. A manufactured outbreak of hyperbolic outrage at someone I'd never heard of who used somewhat clumsy phrasing when speaking off the cuff.
This is what concentrates the minds of our elected representatives when we have carnage in the middle east, an ebola epidemic in Africa and a deficit of £100 billion.
Is EdM worth £2 an hour? Probably not, but it's a minor point.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29627766
Do Labour REALLY think there was a vicious intent behind what was being discussed?
Labour probably know it was a mistake, but when has that stopped any politician exploiting such a mistake for political advantage?
#Buttygate for example?
Seems:
- they want the government to get into the commercial property loan market to support small builders
- new builds will only be allowed to be sold to first time buyers for the first 2 months after completion (doesn't say anything about off-plan)
- there will be no rental covenants in new build properties as part of planning permission
This guy really does like to get stuck into the detail. But that's a long list of intereferences that is going to make building new houses hugely unattractive
(FWIW, I don't really do BTL because I don't like the return profile. I do have an interest in one block that is rented out, but that was bought as part of a change of use investment)
Noticeable that UKIP lead Tories in C2DE and that they are again level with Labour in the South.
Last few days seem to show Lab-UKIP move in London. That will be suburban.
Some say David Cameron is a two faced PR man who spins whichever way the wind blows?
Are you making a point or just "chumming" with other posters who you think share your world view?