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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week to show a record high for UKIP
Labour will be relieved to be back in the lead, but as with other pollsters, we’re seeing some historically low shares for the Con and Lab combined.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-29628784
What would you have them do? Politicians must abide by due process.
What would UKIP do?
Halt the exploitation of white girls in the north by making it more difficult for French executives and Polish builders to enter Britain??
Like that would work...
You seem to be a bit mad on this. There is action, and, quite properly, in the first instance action by the police, not by politicians. So what on earth are you going on about?
I suppose UKIP would say they wouldn't have let fears of looking politically incorrect stop them investigating in the first place.
“@PSbook: In a corner, Cameron can't help invoking the memory of his disabled son "
@charlotteahenry: Imagine if a right wing blog had just done what @PSbook have.
Hindsight is always 20-20.
What would you do now?
How would a UKIP MP in, say, Rotherham or Rochdale differ from Labour MP?
IF UKIP want to win, that question will need an answer
Haha brilliant. Dan Hodges even thought the energy prices autumn was 'bad news for Ed Miliband'.
One of the most annoying things in politics is when people deliberately misread what other people say and then extrapolate that misreading to affect areas that weren't being talked about
For Gods sake, it is so obvious, in fact I think he said so at the time, that Lord Freud was talking about finding a way of giving a bit of work to someone who was incapable of doing any job that would pay the minimum wage.. what are we meant to do? Pretend such people don't exist?!
He is on their side. It is a glorified form of charity. A person with severe mental deficiencies cutting the grass or tending to the plants for £25 a day once a week to get them out of the house.. is that so bad?
That doesn't mean that he thinks everyone who is registered disabled should be paid less than the minimum wage. That is obvious to anyone who is interested in the truth rather than political propaganda
Ed Miliband - what a complete douchebag! I hope this comes back in spades and bites him.
Bitchy.
@georgeeaton: Lib Dem source on why Jeremy Browne stood down: "He might lose his seat, would never be a minister and had no support to be leader."
I suspect the government are doing something about it now to be honest. Danczuk is a Labour MP for Rochdale, and he is banging the drum so fair play to him
As for publicised numbers, how about Childline or 999.
(Assuming that you don't want to post yours here, of course)
For most of the last three hours I've been busy.
Dreadful poll for the Conservatives and another placing them at the core level of 30%. Some on here may be "chipper" about the Party's prospects next May and others may wish to waste their time talking down Labour, UKIP and the LDs but it's the Tories who are staring down the barrel of an election defeat.
What happens then if Rochester falls and UKIP holds the seat ? Will the backbenchers think that Cameron can't win and turn on him or will some decide to abandon the sinking ship and jump aboard HMS Farage ?
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 10.2%
Con seat lead 103 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 11.7%
Chance of a Tory majority: 88.3%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Byelection swingback: -1.1% up
Fisher: 3.5% up
2009-2010 repeat: 4.8% up
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 10.2% up
More on how heavy industry in Britain is being eviscerated.
In the 2009 Euros in South Somerset Council area, which broadly aligns with Yeovil Parly const, the Libdems came a close second, just over 2,000 votes behind the Tories and 5,000 ahead of UKIP. More than reasonable that an incumbent could overcome that in the subsequent GE.
In 2014 Libs trailed a poor third 5,000 behind both UKIP and Tories, and got less than two thirds of the votes they got in the 2009 euros. That's much harder to turn round in a GE vote.
Other parties reflect the polls now and then. Tories are a little down on 2009, Labour and Green a little up, UKIP up 70%, BNP collapsed.
Laws also did not face a Green candidate in the 2010 general election and suspect he will this time. He has a big fight on to keep his seat, and as I said the last thing the Libdems need is to have to use activist resource in safe seats. This is beginning to me to look like a perfect storm for the Libdems.
2009 Euro Results in South Somerset
Tories 17,332
Libdems 15,093
UKIP 10,844
Green 3,653
BNP 2,189
Labour 1,728
Others 4,091
2014 Euro Results in South Somerset:
UKIP 16,786
Tories 14,526
Libdems 9,736
Green 4,156
Labour 3,321
An Independence From Europe 741
English Democrats 460
BNP 294
Any value in 3-4 seats at 7/1 with the Hill Billy boys?
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-ukip-banded
Is this nonsense?
Or just lay Labour, to be on the safe side. I think they're going to be slaughtered, one way or another...
Still, interesting to see what Cameron does here. Will he dance to Labour's tune?
Biography
Lord Freud was appointed Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Minister for Welfare Reform) in May 2010. He is a Conservative member of the House of Lords.
Education
He studied philosophy, politics and economics at Merton College, Oxford.
Political career
Lord Freud was appointed the shadow Minister for Welfare Reform in February 2009.
He previously advised the government on how to reform the welfare system, publishing an independent report in March 2007 entitled ‘Reducing dependency, increasing opportunity: options for the future of welfare to work’.
Now my 2p worth
As someone who is involved in working with people with Mental Health illness through a charity, may I suggest the essence of his words, if I understand them correctly, is that not all people with disabilities are capable of producing the economic output that justifies the minimum wage, when compared to able bodied people. As such they are at a disadvantage in finding employment that is valuable for self esteem, self worth and in the case of mental disability often essential as a step towards an improvement of the condition. Under these circumstances is there not a good argument that they could be paid less than the minimum wage, and society can make up the shortfall?
The only problem is, this phraseology is a bit long winded. The sentiment is hardly evil. His wording was short, to the point and has been taken in to have more than one meaning. I doubt his meaning was evil.
They probably won't be put into that position, they won't have enough MPs to make coalition an option. Also it depends on the electoral arithmetic, it's unlikely that anyone holding the balance of power would have a choice of partner.
Evidence? Or typical Tory bias that dominates this blog!
UKIP 3-4 seats is 7/1
Given that 5+ is odds on, shouldn't 3-4 be shorter than 1-2?
I don't think that is Lord Freud's point.
His point is that the employment market will not pay the minimum wage for the work output of certain disabled people, and so they face a life on welfare.
As many others have pointed out and perhaps depressingly, Lab has seized upon an opportunity to reinforce the Nasty Party narrative. It is a bit like the "no money left" note which the Cons used.
The difficulty in this instance is that two parties are damaged collaterally. First, Freud. He will get over it I'm sure as comments on this blog indicate there is a level of understanding about what he "really" meant. The second party, or parties that will be damaged, much more unfortunately, will be the disabled.
In the back and forth between Lab & Cons and anyone else on this subject, disabled people will find themselves reduced to ammunition to throw at the opposing party and their rights and needs will be forgotten.
That is the real shame of the whole episode.
https://www.gov.uk/national-minimum-wage-rates
Both apprentices and younger workers are paid less.
More than anything I think people who are voting UKIP are fed up with this environment when everything you say, even when it is obviously well meaning, is pounced upon to find some hidden evil intent
I half expect it of Labour, but if Cameron dances to Ed's tune here they really are all the same
Conservative sources said David Cameron intended to put Freud forward for a peerage, then give him a frontbench post as a shadow welfare minister. The move is a coup for the Tories, harnessing not only Freud's expertise on the welfare system, but also his knowledge of the City - as a former investment banker - to beef up policy-making on the recession.
Freud formally handed his resignation to James Purnell, the welfare secretary to whom he works as an unpaid adviser, yesterday and his departure will be regarded as a vote of no confidence in Labour's execution of the planned reforms, which would see private firms employed to help find claimants work."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/feb/15/david-freud-welfare-defects
Appointed by Blair to look at Welfare, advised Purnell until 2009.
The evidence is that, since last May, the people who turn out to vote for labour is fewer than could be expected, given the labour score in the opinion polls.
R&S will be another illustration of this. A four point lead for labour should mean they win a seat they held to 2010.
They will probably come a poor third.
"They will probably come a poor third."
They will probably not try to do any better than that.
Personally I think it's a questionable strategy, but that's what I think they will do.
As for Ed's popularity I'm beginning to think it wont matter. The Tories have managed to alienate the police the NHS Scotland (BIG TIME!) school teachers nearly all public service workers.... In fact apart from hedge fund managers it's hard to see where their support is likely to come from.
Edit: see others have made the point already
So why did he not get sacked by Labour?
What an illuminating insight into the mentality of David Cameron's Tories.
#LibDems' GB by-election %-ages since GE 2010 - 10 lost deposits from 18. Only 3 polls higher than 20% #Clacton
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/522402890598858752
The article is quite informative, and at the end there is a note on the Tower Hamlets schools that some were worried about. But the "real fun " is in the picture of the poor lady, they chose to use.
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/oct/15/education-secretary-row-mps-academy-schools-inspections
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/feb/15/david-freud-welfare-defects
for disability hate crime.
This will obviously disappoint some folk, but never mind.
I believe that even if UKIP came second there, it would not turn the tide on the party.
"Advertising directors in their fifties."
Bastard!!
The "transfer fee" looks quite good though?
Blair [2001] = 47%
Blair [2005] = 35%
Brown [2010] = 36%
There is also a cyclic component which uses these past ratings to try and force the back-and-forth character of British politics. Thus [I think!] that the high rating for Blair in 2001 actually now counts against Labour in the model. This cyclic component also helps to explain why a 35% rating for Blair in 2005 was enough to see Labour home, but a 36% rating for Brown [in 2010] was not enough to defy the pendulum of British politics**.
Basically, then, there are two reasons why the L&N model currently predicts a Tory majority. Firstly, people are still pissed off by the mistakes of the previous Labour government [and importantly, they might be more pissed off by them now after five years of Osborne harping on about how terrible it was]. Secondly, enough people are satisfied with Cameron as PM that they aren't going to chuck him out of office when they are still pissed off with Labour.
** It also implies that Blair would not have done any better than Brown if he'd still been PM in 2010.
Any anyone who works with you will know just what I mean.
Bertha, lovely Bertha, sometimes I thing you're a dream,
When we work out what you have to do,
You can always turn the goods out, always turn the goods out,
We can depend upon you.
Clicking in the day and flashing in the night,
Your computer is shining brightly,
Some people say you've a mind of your own,
And I think that's very likely, likely.
@AndrewCooper__: Since 1979 only Opposition leaders who went on to be PM all had positive ratings at this stage. Miliband rating -34% http://t.co/dbMYdv21hQ
Employers can select an able bodied person who for the same wage has the ability to produce a higher output or be a more reliable attendee or will not need so much monitoring and supervision or has less time off sick and for medical appointments. There are a multitude of hurdles a disabled person needs to cross in order to get a job. As employers are not either social services or charities, then we need to recognise these impediments and find remedies for them to improve chances of the disabled having better outcomes.
In your world maybe you get solutions without identifying the problems. Very clever. The statement is perfectly valid, in context.
But surely this is Ed scoring cheap political points, trying to ensnare Cameron by publicising the comments minutes before PMQs leaving the PM in no position to deal with it one way or another, and taking wholly out of context something seemingly well intentioned if crudely and slightly brutally answered?
Cameron needs to grow a pair and turn this back on Ed.
I'm sure to an extent Dave doesn't want to skewer his opponent for fear of someone half competent coming in. But I think Dave's standing would surge upwards if he finished off Ed and forced Labour to replace him.
Who have they got anyway?!
The French, French please note, Health Minister has declared, "It will be made illegal to sell products that make alcohol appear pleasant.”
I can't help feeling that either Madam Touraine is off her head or something has been lost in the translation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11164372/France-to-stamp-out-le-binge-drinking-with-fines-and-jail-terms.html
Any work that a disabled person does is worth the minimum wage. Not £2 hr, not £3hr, the minimum wage. No ifs, no buts.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/neil-kinnock-accuses-osborne-of-behaving-like-goebbels-9795636.html
For all that, 7/1 does look a bit juicy.
When I see 'Ludlow Lesbians Gays and Transvestites for Cameron' I know you've got your village organized.