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If you’ve always been a lurker, this thread is, Get Ready, this thread is for you, you’ll have a New Order in your life, if you start posting, I’m sure you’ll have a Fine Time.
As it is nighthawks and I know we have a few leftish persuasion people a serious question
With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope.
I mean just off the top of my head
The levellers New Model Army UB40 The Specials even dear old Attila the Stockbroker could hold a better tune
but every one thinks of a left wing musician and it is Billy Bragg....though now a lib dem I understand
As it's nighthawks, I thought this was interesting Matthew Norman in the Independent. Broadly - all our party leaders are nice and ineffectual - They are all Tim Henman
"Miliband, Cameron and Clegg are civilised creatures without a shred of malice between them. This is why they seem so inadequate to the demands of demented political age"
There is something for everyone "Does Ed Miliband want to be Prime Minister? By this, I do not mean, “Does Ed Miliband think he wants to be Prime Minister?”, which is something entirely different. Many times I have sat down to play in a poker tournament thinking I wanted to win. On the rare occasions when luck has brought victory into view, this has proved an illusion, and I have semi-deliberately blown it by playing safe."
- Is Tim about? "Mr Cameron’s failure to win outright in 2010 may be directly traced to the lack of killer instinct that led him to retain the post-Corfu George Osborne"
I was slapped down earlier today by one of this site's resident UKIP members who described my take on the current EU referendum strategies of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties as "bunkum" and indicated he had no faith in any promise of a referendum and cited the Lisbon Treaty as an example of promises reneged.
Fair enough and if that's the line you want, that's ok as long as you recognise that UKIP are completely powerless to enact their view of getting a referendum before 2015 as there simply aren't the votes in the current HoC.
The line of the three largest represented parties in the current Commons is remarkably similar - all have ruled out a referendum before 2015.
As I understand it, the Conservative line is that IF the party wins a majority at the next election, David Cameron will seek to re-negotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU and then present the new arrangements in a referendum before 2017. If no new arrangement can be negotiated, there will be a simple vote on remaining members of the EU again in 2017.
Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have at this stage stated their post-2015 position though neither has ruled out a referendum in the next Parliament.
The Conservative position is complicated by the premise of winning a majority - we do not know the Conservative line in the event of the party NOT being in the next Government - would an Opposition Conservative Party support a proposal for a referendum put forward by a minority Labour Government for example?
We know the current UKIP position and presumably, whether represented or not in the next Parliament, UKIP would still want an In/Out Referendum at the earliest opportunity.
Politically, David Cameron continues to face the same issue Harold Wilson did throughout his leadership of Labour in the 60s and 70s. The 1975 Referendum brought the long-held divisions in Labour on Europe into sharp relief with Roy Jenkins on the Yes platform and Peter Shore on the No side.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have yet to show their cards - I suspect both will offer a referendum but will that be subject to a process of re-negotiation (so not until 2017) or will they seek to offer a simple In/Out vote earlier?
As it is nighthawks and I know we have a few leftish persuasion people a serious question
With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope.
I mean just off the top of my head
The levellers New Model Army UB40 The Specials even dear old Attila the Stockbroker could hold a better tune
but every one thinks of a left wing musician and it is Billy Bragg....though now a lib dem I understand
And resident of the sleepy hamlet Burton Bradstock.
As it is nighthawks and I know we have a few leftish persuasion people a serious question
With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope.
I mean just off the top of my head
The levellers New Model Army UB40 The Specials even dear old Attila the Stockbroker could hold a better tune
but every one thinks of a left wing musician and it is Billy Bragg....though now a lib dem I understand
When Depeche Mode released the 1983 album Construction Time Again (which included the anti-corporate "Everything Counts"), some left-wing pop critics claimed they had done a re-work of the Communist Manifesto!
I was slapped down earlier today by one of this site's resident UKIP members who described my take on the current EU referendum strategies of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties as "bunkum" and indicated he had no faith in any promise of a referendum and cited the Lisbon Treaty as an example of promises reneged.
Fair enough and if that's the line you want, that's ok as long as you recognise that UKIP are completely powerless to enact their view of getting a referendum before 2015 as there simply aren't the votes in the current HoC.
The line of the three largest represented parties in the current Commons is remarkably similar - all have ruled out a referendum before 2015.
As I understand it, the Conservative line is that IF the party wins a majority at the next election, David Cameron will seek to re-negotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU and then present the new arrangements in a referendum before 2017. If no new arrangement can be negotiated, there will be a simple vote on remaining members of the EU again in 2017.
Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have at this stage stated their post-2015 position though neither has ruled out a referendum in the next Parliament.
The Conservative position is complicated by the premise of winning a majority - we do not know the Conservative line in the event of the party NOT being in the next Government - would an Opposition Conservative Party support a proposal for a referendum put forward by a minority Labour Government for example?
We know the current UKIP position and presumably, whether represented or not in the next Parliament, UKIP would still want an In/Out Referendum at the earliest opportunity.
Politically, David Cameron continues to face the same issue Harold Wilson did throughout his leadership of Labour in the 60s and 70s. The 1975 Referendum brought the long-held divisions in Labour on Europe into sharp relief with Roy Jenkins on the Yes platform and Peter Shore on the No side.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have yet to show their cards - I suspect both will offer a referendum but will that be subject to a process of re-negotiation (so not until 2017) or will they seek to offer a simple In/Out vote earlier?
I was slapped down earlier today by one of this site's resident UKIP members who described my take on the current EU referendum strategies of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties as "bunkum" and indicated he had no faith in any promise of a referendum and cited the Lisbon Treaty as an example of promises reneged.
Fair enough and if that's the line you want, that's ok as long as you recognise that UKIP are completely powerless to enact their view of getting a referendum before 2015 as there simply aren't the votes in the current HoC.
The line of the three largest represented parties in the current Commons is remarkably similar - all have ruled out a referendum before 2015.
As I understand it, the Conservative line is that IF the party wins a majority at the next election, David Cameron will seek to re-negotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU and then present the new arrangements in a referendum before 2017. If no new arrangement can be negotiated, there will be a simple vote on remaining members of the EU again in 2017.
Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have at this stage stated their post-2015 position though neither has ruled out a referendum in the next Parliament.
The Conservative position is complicated by the premise of winning a majority - we do not know the Conservative line in the event of the party NOT being in the next Government - would an Opposition Conservative Party support a proposal for a referendum put forward by a minority Labour Government for example?
We know the current UKIP position and presumably, whether represented or not in the next Parliament, UKIP would still want an In/Out Referendum at the earliest opportunity.
Politically, David Cameron continues to face the same issue Harold Wilson did throughout his leadership of Labour in the 60s and 70s. The 1975 Referendum brought the long-held divisions in Labour on Europe into sharp relief with Roy Jenkins on the Yes platform and Peter Shore on the No side.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have yet to show their cards - I suspect both will offer a referendum but will that be subject to a process of re-negotiation (so not until 2017) or will they seek to offer a simple In/Out vote earlier?
Mr Stodge, it was I who called your thoughts and prognosis on an EU referendum as "bunkum", and I'll not retract a word. The ONLY party that will give Britain a free in/out referendum is UKIP. For that we need to get rep's in parliament and get a majority, either alone or in alliance with like minded MP's. A tall order? You bet! So VOTE UKIP!
Other than that, I hope you had a pleasant Bank Holiday, Stodge.
When Depeche Mode released the 1983 album Construction Time Again (which included the anti-corporate "Everything Counts"), some left-wing pop critics claimed they had done a re-work of the Communist Manifesto!
Was never a depeche mode fan at the time so never heard the album but I never thought of them as politicised from what I heard of their output on the radio
For @TSE and @Sunil An 80's music reference I saw on Twitter this evening.
Scriblit @Scriblit 2h If you've been shot through the heart & someone else was to blame, you could be entitled to compensation. Call our claims hotline now.
As it is nighthawks and I know we have a few leftish persuasion people a serious question
With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope.
I mean just off the top of my head
The levellers New Model Army UB40 The Specials even dear old Attila the Stockbroker could hold a better tune
but every one thinks of a left wing musician and it is Billy Bragg....though now a lib dem I understand
Paul Weller and Morrissey both seemed to be Lefties in the 80s but not so much now. The Style Council were champagne socialists if ever there were such a thing.
The UAF and EDL thing just seems like Walter the Softy winding up Dennis The Menace... The mosque tea party is the best story to emerge from the past few days
I was slapped down earlier today by one of this site's resident UKIP members who described my take on the current EU referendum strategies of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties as "bunkum" and indicated he had no faith in any promise of a referendum and cited the Lisbon Treaty as an example of promises reneged.
Fair enough and if that's the line you want, that's ok as long as you recognise that UKIP are completely powerless to enact their view of getting a referendum before 2015 as there simply aren't the votes in the current HoC.
The line of the three largest represented parties in the current Commons is remarkably similar - all have ruled out a referendum before 2015.
As I understand it, the Conservative line is that IF the party wins a majority at the next election, David Cameron will seek to re-negotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU and then present the new arrangements in a referendum before 2017. If no new arrangement can be negotiated, there will be a simple vote on remaining members of the EU again in 2017.
Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have at this stage stated their post-2015 position though neither has ruled out a referendum in the next Parliament.
The Conservative position is complicated by the premise of winning a majority - we do not know the Conservative line in the event of the party NOT being in the next Government - would an Opposition Conservative Party support a proposal for a referendum put forward by a minority Labour Government for example?
We know the current UKIP position and presumably, whether represented or not in the next Parliament, UKIP would still want an In/Out Referendum at the earliest opportunity.
Politically, David Cameron continues to face the same issue Harold Wilson did throughout his leadership of Labour in the 60s and 70s. The 1975 Referendum brought the long-held divisions in Labour on Europe into sharp relief with Roy Jenkins on the Yes platform and Peter Shore on the No side.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have yet to show their cards - I suspect both will offer a referendum but will that be subject to a process of re-negotiation (so not until 2017) or will they seek to offer a simple In/Out vote earlier?
I think your analysis is basically sound Stodge. The only point I disagree with you on is the position of the Tory party as far as what they will actually be able to achieve and so what they will present to the public.
I do not believe that Cameron will be able to wrestle any significant concessions from the EU at any point in the foreseeable future. Certainly not by 2017. Furthermore I believe that he already knows this and that his whole strategy is to obtain some very minor, easily reversible and ultimately meaningless concession which he will then go to the country with and use as the basis for recommending we stay in the EU. He will have the backing of both the Lib Dems and Labour on this as they remain deeply Europhile.
If he does manage to con the country he will then be able to put aside (he would hope) the issue of an EU referendum for a generation.
Of course if he does do this he will be out as PM within a year as his own party will crucify him.
In the end Cameron has no intention of having us leave the EU under any circumstances. It is this first and foremost which guides all his thinking on the matter.
Paul Weller and Morrissey both seemed to be Lefties in the 80s but not so much now. The Style Council were champagne socialists if ever there were such a thing.
I did say I was referring to good left wing bands...the smiths and the style council were bucks fizz pretending to be edgy and political. Cannot honestly say I didnt try and avoid listening to the output of either at every opportunity
ZenPagan "With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope." Good question The man who wrote this piece of brilliance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rze6lW54U4s
Has morphed into - I don';t know what I saw him live a few years ago. He was singing something or other - It sounded like a sort of recital of a Socialist Worker article, with the occasional, semi-random guitar strum. Painful. Maybe entertainers should just kind of entertain.
As it is nighthawks and I know we have a few leftish persuasion people a serious question
With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope.
I mean just off the top of my head
The levellers New Model Army UB40 The Specials even dear old Attila the Stockbroker could hold a better tune
but every one thinks of a left wing musician and it is Billy Bragg....though now a lib dem I understand
ZenPagan "With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope." Good question The man who wrote this piece of brilliance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rze6lW54U4s
Has morphed into - I don';t know what I saw him live a few years ago. He was singing something or other - It sounded like a sort of recital of a Socialist Worker article, with the occasional, semi-random guitar strum. Painful. Maybe entertainers should just kind of entertain.
Many years now since I've seen Billy Bragg perform live, but he used to be a fun act.
ZenPagan "With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope." Good question The man who wrote this piece of brilliance http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rze6lW54U4s
Has morphed into - I don';t know what I saw him live a few years ago. He was singing something or other - It sounded like a sort of recital of a Socialist Worker article, with the occasional, semi-random guitar strum. Painful. Maybe entertainers should just kind of entertain.
Many years now since I've seen Billy Bragg perform live, but he used to be a fun act.
I have a soft spot for Billy Bragg. I don't necessarily agree with his politics but he comes from a very long line of folk singers writing about working class issues in an intelligent and entertaining way. His work with Imagined Village is fantastic.
Paul Weller and Morrissey both seemed to be Lefties in the 80s but not so much now. The Style Council were champagne socialists if ever there were such a thing.
I did say I was referring to good left wing bands...the smiths and the style council were bucks fizz pretending to be edgy and political. Cannot honestly say I didnt try and avoid listening to the output of either at every opportunity
Can't think of any good political bands from the 80s really
Sadly enough I find this bit of 80s music really nostalgic, was the London Programme a bit lefty?
Which is more than than our Mr Haig managed to do, pussyfooting in perimeter countries. He is still trying to persuade other EU foreign ministers to send arms to the rebels. That looks like a losing battle, even if they agree to send something it'l be too little to late.
I have a soft spot for Billy Bragg. I don't necessarily agree with his politics but he comes from a very long line of folk singers writing about working class issues in an intelligent and entertaining way. His work with Imagined Village is fantastic.
I also like his belief that patriotism can be a force for good when wrested back from the right wing nutters like the EDL
He may well have been a brilliant songwriter unfortunately he was the sort of performer that ensured for me at least his songs wouldnt get heard, not because he was left wing but because he was so damn awful to listen to.
As to the patriotism thing, if certain ideologies hadn't caused people to feel guilty about being patriotic the right wing nutters would never have been able to hijack the concept in the first place. There are many things that I think most british people identify with at least a subset of and they should never have been made to feel guilty for doing so.
Which is more than than our Mr Haig managed to do, pussyfooting in perimeter countries. He is still trying to persuade other EU foreign ministers to send arms to the rebels. That looks like a losing battle, even if they agree to send something it'l be too little to late.
For once I think Hague is being sensible. He knows that time is on his side as the embargo lapses on Friday anyway. he has this last chance to try and persuade the rest of the EU to do what he believes to be right and if they won't go along then come Friday the UK and France will act unilaterally. They are the biggest military muscle in the EU anyway so as with Libya could easily do what they felt needed to be done without the rest of the EU.
I am not actually sure that arming the rebels now is the right thing to do given that we missed the chance to keep them onside many months ago and whatever we do now probably won't pull them away from the extremists who are already giving them support.
@Tim Which is interesting, and what I thought you would say What do you think of his comments about Ed Milliband?
Some truth, although I think he underestimates Milibands ruthlessness. As for Darling,well you know what I think about him, and the highest profile possible when he's taken out Salmond would be fitting.
is an interesting article on the subject but doesn't help much with names. With the exception of the oi style skinhead bands I am not sure there was so much on the right lyric wise at least. Easier to write songs about feeding the poor than free market economies I guess
I have a soft spot for Billy Bragg. I don't necessarily agree with his politics but he comes from a very long line of folk singers writing about working class issues in an intelligent and entertaining way. His work with Imagined Village is fantastic.
I also like his belief that patriotism can be a force for good when wrested back from the right wing nutters like the EDL
He may well have been a brilliant songwriter unfortunately he was the sort of performer that ensured for me at least his songs wouldnt get heard, not because he was left wing but because he was so damn awful to listen to.
As to the patriotism thing, if certain ideologies hadn't caused people to feel guilty about being patriotic the right wing nutters would never have been able to hijack the concept in the first place. There are many things that I think most british people identify with at least a subset of and they should never have been made to feel guilty for doing so.
Kirsty MacColl did a great version of his 'ANewEngland' though she did a not so good rendition of The Smiths 'You just haven't earned it yet baby'
I see Charles unintentionally upset a few people on the last thread.
How did Southam describe Charles's comment ?
"It is magnificently arrogant and perfectly repellant."
Now consider how magnificently arrogant and perfectly repellant the Cameroons and their cheerleaders are appearing when they intentionally aim to upset people.
OK, finally it is beginning to make sense to me. However, since the co-ordinates are the average local elections percentage versus the GE percentage, we would not know if Labour is doing well or not.
THe Tory 2005 - 2010 "average" LE lead was higher than Labour's 1992 - 1997.
That says a lot. No wonder Tim keeps on saying the two posh boys blew it.
If Labour's average LE lead is now 3%, this would indicate the Tories would beat Labour by about 8%. Is that correct ? So , according to this Labour would do even worse than 2010 ?
But then again before 2010 you would have said the Tories would have a thumping majority if 1979 and 1997 is anything to go by.
Which is more than than our Mr Haig managed to do, pussyfooting in perimeter countries. He is still trying to persuade other EU foreign ministers to send arms to the rebels. That looks like a losing battle, even if they agree to send something it'l be too little to late.
For once I think Hague is being sensible. He knows that time is on his side as the embargo lapses on Friday anyway. he has this last chance to try and persuade the rest of the EU to do what he believes to be right and if they won't go along then come Friday the UK and France will act unilaterally. They are the biggest military muscle in the EU anyway so as with Libya could easily do what they felt needed to be done without the rest of the EU.
I am not actually sure that arming the rebels now is the right thing to do given that we missed the chance to keep them onside many months ago and whatever we do now probably won't pull them away from the extremists who are already giving them support.
You may well be right, the arms move should have been made at Christmas at the latest. However I'm not at all sure that the coalition will support going alone with France, even if France were to agree to it, which seeing Hollandes internal position he may be loth to tackle.
I think that there are a number of right wing American rock bands. Are there any overtly right wing UK ones?
Heavy Metal has a similar audience; being a favourite of unfashionable parts of the country and demographics. It is not crossover music!
Though I saw "Rage against the Machine" go down a storm at Download the other year.
Are their lyrics actually right wing though, I think more rock groups tend towards a libertarian minarchist view but that can be as left wing slanted as right wing in many ways. I know a lot of the old punk groups such as the sub humans were more left wing minarchist than right wing
There is a difference between musicians who vote a certain way and those who actually sing about politics however. The levellers for instance have some pretty overtly political idea's espoused in their songs. Not convinced the works of Phil collins, tory voting though he is are similarly slanted.
Turnout was down quite a lot compared to previous cycle. So it shows some kind of disaffection. 5 Stars didn't make any breakthrough. I guess low turnout penalized them and their not so brilliant (compared to GE) score is one of the reasons of low turnout as they previosuly got a fair share of disaffected voters. The majority of contests will be decided in the run off but centre-left generally start ahead (even if with a mediocre score in some of their strongholds like Siena and Ancona. Siena is not a surprise given the local banking scandal). So a decent result for them as PD was fearing a collapse due to their joining a grand coalition government. PDL has done badly almost everywhere. I guess we should go back to the fact that PdL is Silvio and its success is Silvio's success. So they don't have a good school of boring but worthy local administrators. Hence, if there are no national issues to protest about (aka not the left ruling alone), it tends to implode at local level.
Count has been very slow.
Among "capoluoghi", centre-left held Pisa, Massa, Imola, Vicenza and Sondrio. The latter 2 are particularly good as they are not left wing cities (I am actually still puzzled on why PD held Vicenza in first place!) like Pisa and Massa. Centre-Right didn't get over 50% in any big town.
Considering some of the recent troublemakers were converts [ or, as Muslims refer to them as "reverts" ], what's the probability that some of the EDL guests will eventually become Muslim ?
I think that there are a number of right wing American rock bands. Are there any overtly right wing UK ones?
Heavy Metal has a similar audience; being a favourite of unfashionable parts of the country and demographics. It is not crossover music!
Though I saw "Rage against the Machine" go down a storm at Download the other year.
Are their lyrics actually right wing though, I think more rock groups tend towards a libertarian minarchist view but that can be as left wing slanted as right wing in many ways. I know a lot of the old punk groups such as the sub humans were more left wing minarchist than right wing
Tom Morello of Rage Against The Machine is so left wing he's virtually a commie, he's a sensational guitarist though.
Speaking of sensational guitarists, Eric Clapton used to be on the Alf Garnett juice:
Just spent the entire day at Legoland. It was a freebie, cause I am writing about tourism in London.
Thank God - cause the price is just flabbergasting. If we had paid, the whole day out - with tickets for two adults and two kids, food and drinx, accelerated queue access, petrol, parking, and so on - would have cost about £300. For one day at a theme park. £300!
The place was so packed one of the biggest restaurants completely ran out of grub at about 2pm.
Recession, what recession, etc
Pah, a day out for two adults + three kids on the Epping Ongar Railway is just 34 quid!
OK, finally it is beginning to make sense to me. However, since the co-ordinates are the average local elections percentage versus the GE percentage, we would not know if Labour is doing well or not.
THe Tory 2005 - 2010 "average" LE lead was higher than Labour's 1992 - 1997.
That says a lot. No wonder Tim keeps on saying the two posh boys blew it.
If Labour's average LE lead is now 3%, this would indicate the Tories would beat Labour by about 8%. Is that correct ? So , according to this Labour would do even worse than 2010 ?
But then again before 2010 you would have said the Tories would have a thumping majority if 1979 and 1997 is anything to go by.
We do know Labour is not doing well, by 35 year historical standards. The three changes of government were all produced with >13% average LE leads. Labour is currently on 3%...
The Labour 1997 is a 'conservative' estimate of their average LE 1992-97. Don't forget:-
i) the Tories had a very good 1992 LE against a demoralised Labour party, just after the 1992 GE.
ii) Blair arrived in 1994, changing the face of British politics completely. I could have reasonably restricted the Labour input to 1995-1996 in which case it would have been 18% LE lead, not 14%.
I don't expect Labour's 2015 performance to lie exactly on the line (-7.6% behind the Tories), but I do expect them to lose the popular vote.
Labour has another chance in 2014 to bump up its average LE lead from 3%, but it essentially won't change the outcome in 2015...
"But then again before 2010 you would have said the Tories would have a thumping majority if 1979 and 1997 is anything to go by." The graph just compares voting leads. Don't forget FPTP has tipped heavily against the Tories since 1979. Labour will probably lose the PV, yet win most seats in 2015...
A lot of 80s bands like Heaven 17, Eurythmics and Sade were supposedly left-wing but they had a sort of yuppie Thatcherite feel to them which I always think was rather attractive in a funny kind of way.
OK, finally it is beginning to make sense to me. However, since the co-ordinates are the average local elections percentage versus the GE percentage, we would not know if Labour is doing well or not.
THe Tory 2005 - 2010 "average" LE lead was higher than Labour's 1992 - 1997.
That says a lot. No wonder Tim keeps on saying the two posh boys blew it.
If Labour's average LE lead is now 3%, this would indicate the Tories would beat Labour by about 8%. Is that correct ? So , according to this Labour would do even worse than 2010 ?
But then again before 2010 you would have said the Tories would have a thumping majority if 1979 and 1997 is anything to go by.
We do know Labour is not doing well, by 35 year historical standards. The three changes of government were all produced with >13% average LE leads. Labour is currently on 3%...
The Labour 1997 is a 'conservative' estimate of their average LE 1992-97. Don't forget:-
i) the Tories had a very good 1992 LE against a demoralised Labour party, just after the 1992 GE.
ii) Blair arrived in 1994, changing the face of British politics completely. I could have reasonably restricted the Labour input to 1995-1996 in which case it would have been 18% LE lead, not 14%.
I don't expect Labour's 2015 performance to lie exactly on the line (-7.6% behind the Tories), but I do expect them to lose the popular vote.
Labour has another chance in 2014 to bump up its average LE lead from 3%, but it essentially won't change the outcome in 2015...
Your "line" would show Labour could be trailing the Tories as much as 5% even if it improved it's LE average to 5%.
How are you computing the LE average ? Is it from the actual results or the Rallings & Thrasher notional figures. If it is actual then, of course, 2014 will be the first year since 2010 that Labour will be fighting on its own turf.
Just spent the entire day at Legoland. It was a freebie, cause I am writing about tourism in London.
Thank God - cause the price is just flabbergasting. If we had paid, the whole day out - with tickets for two adults and two kids, food and drinx, accelerated queue access, petrol, parking, and so on - would have cost about £300. For one day at a theme park. £300!
The place was so packed one of the biggest restaurants completely ran out of grub at about 2pm.
Recession, what recession, etc
My daughters go to Legoland, Thorpe Park etc but always save the 2 for 1 vouchers from various offers.
I'm 60 in a couple of years and would like to take my three girls, their husbands and six grand kids to Orlando and Disney/Universal etc. Last night I priced up unlimited tickets for 14 days to all the attractions, nine adults and four kids comes to just under £6,000!
Orlando theme parks might be a bit trashy but they're certainly worth the price. 99% of people visiting them have a better time than they were expecting according to what I've read.
Your "line" would show Labour could be trailing the Tories as much as 5% even if it improved it's LE average to 5%.
How are you computing the LE average ? Is it from the actual results or the Rallings & Thrasher notional figures. If it is actual then, of course, 2014 will be the first year since 2010 that Labour will be fighting on its own turf.
I'm using the R&T NEVs (National Equivalent Voteshares)... They seem to have a very high correlation with GE outcomes.
Another analyst, Chris Prosser, of St. Cat's, Oxford, using a slightly different method, came to the same conclusion (in 2012; I await his 2013 update, which can only be worse for Labour).
What is a right wing song? I'd have thought they'd be quite tricky to write as a theme would not be immediately apparent. I guess ones celebrating money and wealth would be the most obvious. So maybe we need to look much more at hip hop, rap etc.
Orlando theme parks might be a bit trashy but they're certainly worth the price. 99% of people visiting them have a better time than they were expecting according to what I've read.
We went in 2006 and loved it, we've had a few more grand kids since then and would love to take them. The whole holiday will be in excess of £20,000 but it will be worth it for me and the missus, the kids will remember it all their lives and that is important for us.
What is a right wing song? I'd have thought they'd be quite tricky to write as a theme would not be immediately apparent. I guess ones celebrating money and wealth would be the most obvious. So maybe we need to look much more at hip hop, rap etc.
God no!
Hip hop and rap music is terrible, it makes your ears bleed.
Sounds like they're doing a favour to Dave if you ask me. I struggle to see why it's so hard to negotiate a new deal with an economy of two and a half trillion dollars, when they were prepared to do them with Colombia (a third of a trillion) and Panama (26 billion).
EDIT: Also, the Obama administration wouldn't be in power come 2017.
What is a right wing song? I'd have thought they'd be quite tricky to write as a theme would not be immediately apparent. I guess ones celebrating money and wealth would be the most obvious. So maybe we need to look much more at hip hop, rap etc.
God no!
Hip hop and rap music is terrible, it makes your ears bleed.
Your "line" would show Labour could be trailing the Tories as much as 5% even if it improved it's LE average to 5%.
How are you computing the LE average ? Is it from the actual results or the Rallings & Thrasher notional figures. If it is actual then, of course, 2014 will be the first year since 2010 that Labour will be fighting on its own turf.
I'm using the R&T NEVs (National Equivalent Voteshares)... They seem to have a very high correlation with GE outcomes.
Another analyst, Chris Prosser, of St. Cat's, Oxford, using a slightly different method, came to the same conclusion (in 2012; I await his 2013 update, which can only be worse for Labour).
Labour have blown the Popular Vote in 2015...
I do not dispute your methodology. Seems robust enough to me. However, I would question the "c" in y = mx +c. To me -0.1209 is too high !
I think you have answered this already. Had you only taken 1994 - 1997 period, the steepness of the line would have been reduced and the intersect would have been higher. Then the Tory 2010 performance would have been closer to the line, as would have their 2001 and 2005 performance.
It is the Labour performance which appears to have a far higher variation to the "mean". 1987 and 1992 would then be significantly worse and 1997 far better though less so than the current position in your graph.
But forecasts are there to be proven wrong ! If you went along with the batting average, no batsman would ever score a hundred. But they do.
The UK Singles Chart is the official record chart in the United Kingdom. Until 1983, it was compiled weekly by the British Market Research Bureau (BMRB) on behalf of the British record industry with a two-week break each Christmas.
Sensible people no longer fall for this Ken Clarke type shit.
You haven't read the story have you?
Yes, I have.
Like I said people are no longer influenced by this pathetic, childish rubbish any longer. There is no substance to any of it, just scaremongering from an increasingly worried elite.
Next you'll be telling how we'll lose three million jobs WHEN we leave the EU?
Sounds like they're doing a favour to Dave if you ask me. I struggle to see why it's so hard to negotiate a new deal with an economy of two and a half trillion dollars, when they were prepared to do them with Colombia (a third of a trillion) and Panama (26 billion).
EDIT: Also, the Obama administration wouldn't be in power come 2017.
It sounds like Congress would be the issue. But in general the bigger the economy the tougher the negotiation. The EU one will be a nightmare to do, but at the end of it there's a big upside for both parties. Right now what does the US lose out on by not having a deal with us?
Eagles of Death Metal aren't that famous but their singer Jesse Hughes is an interesting bloke and speaks here about politics and music mixing ... Or not....
Was a Republican Party speech writer before becoming a rocker!
Sensible people no longer fall for this Ken Clarke type shit.
You haven't read the story have you?
Yes, I have.
Like I said people are no longer influenced by this pathetic, childish rubbish any longer. There is no substance to any of it, just scaremongering from an increasingly worried elite.
Next you'll be telling how we'll lose three million jobs WHEN we leave the EU?
I am not saying anything, I am linking to a newspaper report. Can you explain why it is wrong?
Utter garbage. The US will do trade deals with the UK in a flash and probably get it doen quicker than they will with the EU.
By the way if we were out of the EU but in EFTA we would now have a free trade deal with Canada and, far more importantly, could be like Iceland and have a FTA with China. Something we are still miles off getting with the EU as they are so archaically protectionist.
EFTA are far more advanced than the EU in negotiating Free trade deals with India and China.
Just spent the entire day at Legoland. It was a freebie, cause I am writing about tourism in London.
Thank God - cause the price is just flabbergasting. If we had paid, the whole day out - with tickets for two adults and two kids, food and drinx, accelerated queue access, petrol, parking, and so on - would have cost about £300. For one day at a theme park. £300!
The place was so packed one of the biggest restaurants completely ran out of grub at about 2pm.
Recession, what recession, etc
The recession has been in wealth production not wealth consumption.
The government are borrowing £100bn+ every year to keep the wealth consumption continuing.
If you want to see the effect of the recession then head to the industrial estates not the theme parks.
Comments
No need at all.
It is a little early today, but
i) It has been nearly ten hours since the last thread
ii) The autopublish feature on wordpress is a bit hit and miss at the moment, so it's easier to live publish
iii) I'm busy tonight, like most of today. Plus I had to do the Blue Monday reference on a Monday, unless you missed my subtle musical references.
Anyway it's great to see Marf's PB Nighthawks picture. I've got a copy on my wall and it makes me smile.
'Fine Time' is one of the best tracks ever... (if only for the bloke's voice as he says 'you got lurve technique').
With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope.
I mean just off the top of my head
The levellers
New Model Army
UB40
The Specials
even dear old Attila the Stockbroker could hold a better tune
but every one thinks of a left wing musician and it is Billy Bragg....though now a lib dem I understand
Matthew Norman in the Independent.
Broadly - all our party leaders are nice and ineffectual - They are all Tim Henman
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/ed-miliband-is-staring-at-an-open-goal-and-i-know-just-the-pair-of-strikers-to-win-it-for-him-8625546.html
"Miliband, Cameron and Clegg are civilised creatures without a shred of malice between them. This is why they seem so inadequate to the demands of demented political age"
There is something for everyone
"Does Ed Miliband want to be Prime Minister? By this, I do not mean, “Does Ed Miliband think he wants to be Prime Minister?”, which is something entirely different. Many times I have sat down to play in a poker tournament thinking I wanted to win. On the rare occasions when luck has brought victory into view, this has proved an illusion, and I have semi-deliberately blown it by playing safe."
- Is Tim about?
"Mr Cameron’s failure to win outright in 2010 may be directly traced to the lack of killer instinct that led him to retain the post-Corfu George Osborne"
I was slapped down earlier today by one of this site's resident UKIP members who described my take on the current EU referendum strategies of the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties as "bunkum" and indicated he had no faith in any promise of a referendum and cited the Lisbon Treaty as an example of promises reneged.
Fair enough and if that's the line you want, that's ok as long as you recognise that UKIP are completely powerless to enact their view of getting a referendum before 2015 as there simply aren't the votes in the current HoC.
The line of the three largest represented parties in the current Commons is remarkably similar - all have ruled out a referendum before 2015.
As I understand it, the Conservative line is that IF the party wins a majority at the next election, David Cameron will seek to re-negotiate the terms of Britain's membership of the EU and then present the new arrangements in a referendum before 2017. If no new arrangement can be negotiated, there will be a simple vote on remaining members of the EU again in 2017.
Neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have at this stage stated their post-2015 position though neither has ruled out a referendum in the next Parliament.
The Conservative position is complicated by the premise of winning a majority - we do not know the Conservative line in the event of the party NOT being in the next Government - would an Opposition Conservative Party support a proposal for a referendum put forward by a minority Labour Government for example?
We know the current UKIP position and presumably, whether represented or not in the next Parliament, UKIP would still want an In/Out Referendum at the earliest opportunity.
Politically, David Cameron continues to face the same issue Harold Wilson did throughout his leadership of Labour in the 60s and 70s. The 1975 Referendum brought the long-held divisions in Labour on Europe into sharp relief with Roy Jenkins on the Yes platform and Peter Shore on the No side.
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have yet to show their cards - I suspect both will offer a referendum but will that be subject to a process of re-negotiation (so not until 2017) or will they seek to offer a simple In/Out vote earlier?
So does that make Salmond Andy Murray?
Vote Ukip.
Other than that, I hope you had a pleasant Bank Holiday, Stodge.
Edited
Which is interesting, and what I thought you would say
What do you think of his comments about Ed Milliband?
Runners and riders for the next Tory leadership race.
First, Philip Hammond.
An 80's music reference I saw on Twitter this evening.
Scriblit @Scriblit 2h
If you've been shot through the heart & someone else was to blame, you could be entitled to compensation. Call our claims hotline now.
The UAF and EDL thing just seems like Walter the Softy winding up Dennis The Menace... The mosque tea party is the best story to emerge from the past few days
As well as compensation for the injured party I dare say love itself may have a defamation claim
I do not believe that Cameron will be able to wrestle any significant concessions from the EU at any point in the foreseeable future. Certainly not by 2017. Furthermore I believe that he already knows this and that his whole strategy is to obtain some very minor, easily reversible and ultimately meaningless concession which he will then go to the country with and use as the basis for recommending we stay in the EU. He will have the backing of both the Lib Dems and Labour on this as they remain deeply Europhile.
If he does manage to con the country he will then be able to put aside (he would hope) the issue of an EU referendum for a generation.
Of course if he does do this he will be out as PM within a year as his own party will crucify him.
In the end Cameron has no intention of having us leave the EU under any circumstances. It is this first and foremost which guides all his thinking on the matter.
The 2011 vote for an EU referendum had 31 MPs, from parties other than the Conservatives, voting in favour.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/25/mp-voted-for-eu-referendum
"With so many seriously good left wing bands around....how the hell did you end up with Billy Bragg being such a representative of the left wing music trope."
Good question
The man who wrote this piece of brilliance
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rze6lW54U4s
Has morphed into - I don';t know what
I saw him live a few years ago.
He was singing something or other - It sounded like a sort of recital of a Socialist Worker article, with the occasional, semi-random guitar strum. Painful. Maybe entertainers should just kind of entertain.
I am not the only one who thinks so
http://www.enotes.com/new-model-army-reference/new-model-army
I guess it depends on your point of view though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H3IyMnKrlk
I also like his belief that patriotism can be a force for good when wrested back from the right wing nutters like the EDL
Sadly enough I find this bit of 80s music really nostalgic, was the London Programme a bit lefty?
http://youtu.be/wG3UBmbY60Y
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4385010,00.html
Which is more than than our Mr Haig managed to do, pussyfooting in perimeter countries.
He is still trying to persuade other EU foreign ministers to send arms to the rebels. That looks like a losing battle, even if they agree to send something it'l be too little to late.
Are there any really good right wing ones?
Lynyrd Skynyrd?
As to the patriotism thing, if certain ideologies hadn't caused people to feel guilty about being patriotic the right wing nutters would never have been able to hijack the concept in the first place. There are many things that I think most british people identify with at least a subset of and they should never have been made to feel guilty for doing so.
Bryan Ferry's a Tory
So is Tony Hadley of Spandau Ballet fame.
And so is Phil Collins.
I am not actually sure that arming the rebels now is the right thing to do given that we missed the chance to keep them onside many months ago and whatever we do now probably won't pull them away from the extremists who are already giving them support.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/locals.png
is an interesting article on the subject but doesn't help much with names. With the exception of the oi style skinhead bands I am not sure there was so much on the right lyric wise at least. Easier to write songs about feeding the poor than free market economies I guess
Heavy Metal has a similar audience; being a favourite of unfashionable parts of the country and demographics. It is not crossover music!
Though I saw "Rage against the Machine" go down a storm at Download the other year.
How did Southam describe Charles's comment ?
"It is magnificently arrogant and perfectly repellant."
Now consider how magnificently arrogant and perfectly repellant the Cameroons and their cheerleaders are appearing when they intentionally aim to upset people.
THe Tory 2005 - 2010 "average" LE lead was higher than Labour's 1992 - 1997.
That says a lot. No wonder Tim keeps on saying the two posh boys blew it.
If Labour's average LE lead is now 3%, this would indicate the Tories would beat Labour by about 8%. Is that correct ? So , according to this Labour would do even worse than 2010 ?
But then again before 2010 you would have said the Tories would have a thumping majority if 1979 and 1997 is anything to go by.
Perhaps the Beatles "Taxman"?
http://youtu.be/nxHcx7FO8nI
Turnout was down quite a lot compared to previous cycle. So it shows some kind of disaffection.
5 Stars didn't make any breakthrough. I guess low turnout penalized them and their not so brilliant (compared to GE) score is one of the reasons of low turnout as they previosuly got a fair share of disaffected voters.
The majority of contests will be decided in the run off but centre-left generally start ahead (even if with a mediocre score in some of their strongholds like Siena and Ancona. Siena is not a surprise given the local banking scandal). So a decent result for them as PD was fearing a collapse due to their joining a grand coalition government.
PDL has done badly almost everywhere. I guess we should go back to the fact that PdL is Silvio and its success is Silvio's success. So they don't have a good school of boring but worthy local administrators. Hence, if there are no national issues to protest about (aka not the left ruling alone), it tends to implode at local level.
Count has been very slow.
Among "capoluoghi", centre-left held Pisa, Massa, Imola, Vicenza and Sondrio. The latter 2 are particularly good as they are not left wing cities (I am actually still puzzled on why PD held Vicenza in first place!) like Pisa and Massa. Centre-Right didn't get over 50% in any big town.
All for themselves after all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_rD1LeECDE
Considering some of the recent troublemakers were converts [ or, as Muslims refer to them as "reverts" ], what's the probability that some of the EDL guests will eventually become Muslim ?
Speaking of sensational guitarists, Eric Clapton used to be on the Alf Garnett juice:
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=Dg9IZyx_-Os&desktop_uri=/watch?v=Dg9IZyx_-Os
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2013/may/27/david-goodhart-snub-hay-festival
Love the way the group stare into the distance to begin with, and then into the camera the second time!
The Labour 1997 is a 'conservative' estimate of their average LE 1992-97. Don't forget:-
i) the Tories had a very good 1992 LE against a demoralised Labour party, just after the 1992 GE.
ii) Blair arrived in 1994, changing the face of British politics completely. I could have reasonably restricted the Labour input to 1995-1996 in which case it would have been 18% LE lead, not 14%.
I don't expect Labour's 2015 performance to lie exactly on the line (-7.6% behind the Tories), but I do expect them to lose the popular vote.
Labour has another chance in 2014 to bump up its average LE lead from 3%, but it essentially won't change the outcome in 2015...
"But then again before 2010 you would have said the Tories would have a thumping majority if 1979 and 1997 is anything to go by."
The graph just compares voting leads. Don't forget FPTP has tipped heavily against the Tories since 1979. Labour will probably lose the PV, yet win most seats in 2015...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDJsLTVSeEUwOVZ3TkJzeDlDSFlobUE#gid=0
Tories and UKIP took 68% of the vote between them in the county.
Blackadder 2 on BBc2 right now!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GOG1Tpcm0E
How are you computing the LE average ? Is it from the actual results or the Rallings & Thrasher notional figures. If it is actual then, of course, 2014 will be the first year since 2010 that Labour will be fighting on its own turf.
I'm 60 in a couple of years and would like to take my three girls, their husbands and six grand kids to Orlando and Disney/Universal etc. Last night I priced up unlimited tickets for 14 days to all the attractions, nine adults and four kids comes to just under £6,000!
http://youtu.be/OCF1HwD6bOw
Your LE average: is it a simple average or weighted by turnout ?
They seem to have a very high correlation with GE outcomes.
Another analyst, Chris Prosser, of St. Cat's, Oxford, using a slightly different method, came to the same conclusion (in 2012; I await his 2013 update, which can only be worse for Labour).
Labour have blown the Popular Vote in 2015...
Hip hop and rap music is terrible, it makes your ears bleed.
And I'm the expert authority on bad music.
http://m.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/may/27/eu-exit-risks-us-trade-deal
EDIT: Also, the Obama administration wouldn't be in power come 2017.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmwOWmd7c98
Sensible people no longer fall for this Ken Clarke type shit.
I think you have answered this already. Had you only taken 1994 - 1997 period, the steepness of the line would have been reduced and the intersect would have been higher. Then the Tory 2010 performance would have been closer to the line, as would have their 2001 and 2005 performance.
It is the Labour performance which appears to have a far higher variation to the "mean". 1987 and 1992 would then be significantly worse and 1997 far better though less so than the current position in your graph.
But forecasts are there to be proven wrong ! If you went along with the batting average, no batsman would ever score a hundred. But they do.
The UK Singles Chart is the official record chart in the United Kingdom. Until 1983, it was compiled weekly by the British Market Research Bureau (BMRB) on behalf of the British record industry with a two-week break each Christmas.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oyu5sFzWLk8
"Define irony. Bunch of idiots dancing on a plane to a song made famous by a band that died in a plane crash."
Like I said people are no longer influenced by this pathetic, childish rubbish any longer. There is no substance to any of it, just scaremongering from an increasingly worried elite.
Next you'll be telling how we'll lose three million jobs WHEN we leave the EU?
Was a Republican Party speech writer before becoming a rocker!
http://youtu.be/88FpIE8AvDo
By the way if we were out of the EU but in EFTA we would now have a free trade deal with Canada and, far more importantly, could be like Iceland and have a FTA with China. Something we are still miles off getting with the EU as they are so archaically protectionist.
EFTA are far more advanced than the EU in negotiating Free trade deals with India and China.
The government are borrowing £100bn+ every year to keep the wealth consumption continuing.
If you want to see the effect of the recession then head to the industrial estates not the theme parks.