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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal asks What will UKIP look like the rest of the way
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal asks What will UKIP look like the rest of the way?
It seems likely that we are on the edge of a new stage in UKIP’s existence, with Douglas Carswell looking likely to become the party’s second MP (Bob Spink’s legacy as the answer to that political trivia question is safe) and the first to be elected as a UKIP candidate.
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OT
@Sun_Politics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour ahead by one point: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%
Clegg’s conference ‘bounce’ proving as elusive as ever (-1), perhaps it will appear tomorrow?
Talk about the pot calling the kettle black.
The first time since Isle of Ely, 1973 that the victorious party had not contested the previous election (in an English seat).
Also the first time since Lincoln, 1973 that the incumbent MP had been successfully re-elected after calling a by-election to ratify a change of party (and only the 4th time in the past 100 years)
A bigger problem is Reckless, who just looks like a regular right-wing Tory.
Nigel has a general problem in maintaining his double act - I don't think having a principled MP will help, however agile he is - and of course Labour will now have plenty of "they're just Tories really" ammunition.
Cameron lead vs Miliband: +19 (+3)
Good thread. Interesting times ahead. This victory will propel UKIP further from the shadows into the limelight, with all that entails. No longer will they be just a fringe protest party, but be accountable in Parliament. When the media Westminster machine rolls on College Green, will it be Farage or their MP Carswell who speaks? When the froth subsides on Farage's breakfast pint the time for UKIP to be taken seriously will have arrived. And that's a two-edged sword.
so we now get 7 months of Tory sledging in the run up to the GE. Why don't they just get some decent policies ?
Hugely unimaginative, one term in office and Cameron has run out of ideas,
http://www.mediafire.com/view/hrm7rwr0thxh5zt/YouGov since 01 Sept 2013.jpg#
Pretty damning, must be some betting opportunities there, KP for captain anyone or back in the side as mass sackings occur?
Tories simply relying on bad PR for UKIP isn't going to win them a majority, it's as vacuous as Ed's 35% strategy.
Carswell would add some intellectual gravitas, but even he and Reckless should be capable of holding their tongues until after May.
Scrapping all MPs' expenses except those relating to running an office and travel from the constituency
Selecting candidates through open primaries
Local and national referendums
"People's Bills", to be placed before Parliament if they attract a certain number of signatures
Placing the police under locally elected Sheriffs, who would also set local sentencing guidelines
Appointing heads of quangos, senior judges and ambassadors through open hearings rather than prime ministerial patronage
Devolving to English counties and cities all the powers which were devolved to Edinburgh under the 1998 Scotland Act
Placing social security, too, under local authorities
Making councils self-financing by scrapping VAT and replacing it with a Local Sales Tax
Allowing people to pay their contributions into personal healthcare accounts, with a mandatory insurance component
Letting parents opt out of their Local Education Authority, carrying to any school the financial allocation that would have been spent on their child
Replacing EU membership with a Swiss-style bilateral free trade accord
Requiring all foreign treaties to be ratified by Parliament
Scrapping the Human Rights Act withdrawing from the ECHR and guaranteeing parliamentary legislation against judicial activism
A "Great Repeal Bill" to annul unnecessary and burdensome laws
How much of that is UKIP policy?
A party that has funded itself by, lets be kind, dubious use of their expenses from the European Parliament.
Who dumped the local candidate (who in fairness was some sort of a nutter) so Carswell could run.
Does UKIP support the existence of PCCs?
And such high levels of localism/devolution?
The existence of personal healthcare accounts?
In most areas other than the EU it is difficult to work out what UKIP policy is. What we know is that it does not stay UKIP policy for more than 24 hours if Nigel doesn't like it. How much of this platform will UKIP adopt and what will Carswell do or say about the stuff that they do not adopt?
It’s been downhill for the poor chap ever since!
Carswell did campaign in Clacton on protecting the NHS, so perhaps has changed his mind on a few things.
Maybe. There are just substantial risks, as Corporeal points out, in having such an "independent" thinker as your sole MP. If he expresses an opinion in Parliament, and he will, is that UKIP policy or not?
As to DavidL's [7:03] list, surely I can't be the only Peebie who doesn't know whether to laugh or cry? If it ever came to pass I would propose a Bill requiring taxes to be paid by Other People, which should easily obtain the requisite number of signatures. Admittedly items 2 and 5 look like common sense but "local and national referendums" (on what? banning Islam? hanging lefties?) suggest that UKIP have one candidate who is Reckless by name and another who is reckless by nature.
I think my bet may have had its chips however....
Audrey chastised me for the dreadful crime of again asking the tiresome Moniker to back up one of his ludicrous forecasts with hard cash. On a betting site. She also asked another poster to change his name.
If you agree with her then say so.
She'd have been thrashed the traitorous pig dog.
FYI had I have been editing PB tomorrow the headline would have been
"History is made as the first pig-dog becomes an MP"
(Last 5 leads)
1, 2 , -2, -2, -1
(Previous 5)
7, 5, 5, 5, 6
UKIP 13.8 last 5 polls, 14.8 previous 5.
Couldn't have been a Labour Party member, then. In that Party, there is always someone to the Left of you and someone to the Right...
Labour's NEC should listen to PBers.
We warned them Brown would be a terrible leader and we told them Ed is crap.
If they want to win the election they should replace him with Harriet Harman now
It will be interesting to see how these change tomorrow ...... a reversal of these figures and then some I would say.,
Because of the dysfunctional way in which our electoral system works, I have little idea how this would turn into seats, but Cameron will get a working majority. Then we shall have the anti-Terror Bill which will turn us into a shamocracy like Putin's Russia.
Currently, it looks as though the real winner will be NOTA: UKIP, the Greens, and the smaller parties that are unsullied by having to deal with reality.
Mr. Abroad, whilst the Coalition hasn't been stellar on such things (though it deserves kudos for axing Labour's deranged ID card database nonsense), let us not forget it was Labour who wanted the state to be able to lock people up for 90 days without charge.
On-topic: the Labour seat's the more interesting.
We warned them Brown would be a terrible leader and we told them Ed is crap.
If they want to win the election they should replace him with Harriet Harman now
It's all way, way too late for that.
I have probably been too hard on the Tories on this issue. If they've got the sense they were born with, they'll offer Labour an input into the Bill through the "usual channels" and Labour will have no good position to take - help the Government with the Bill and so smash up its own base further, or decline and let themselves be painted as endangering babies' lives.
To this extent, the Islamic terrorists have already won.
As things stand, I would have to open every YouGov pdf since the 2010 election, which feels like quite a grunt.
Good thing that they have such an inspiring, popular, deep thinking, big hitting leader. ;-)
Rifled through the papers this morning looking for commentary on Clegg’s big speech, unfortunately they’re as rare as hen’s teeth, but did find this amusing dissection by Rentoul.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/liberal-democrat-conference-what-nick-clegg-said--and-what-he-meant-9782715.html
Character: Toxic Cons vs Caring Lab
Competence: Incompetent Lab vs Competent Cons
Fairness: Wrong kind of recovery Lab vs...well...vs....what?
It will come down, at the margin, to whether:
a) the electorate will tolerate the nasty Cons because they've managed the economy well, even though it hasn't affected me yet; or
b) the recovery is a distant chimera and Lab wants to look after me if only the nasty Cons would let them and it wasn't all that bad in 2008 anyway.
Oh I noticed them Charles, the basic issue is whether you accept them as policies a government intends to deliver or spin ahead of an election.
Deficit, rebalancing economy, rolling back the state ..... they said it but didn;t do it.
looking at the Tories record of the last 4 years I'm squarely in the latter camp. And that is really the problem for Cameron. If he can;t persude about 10% more of the electorate that he says what he means and means what he says then the best he can hope for is a HP again.
Deficit, rebalancing economy, rolling back the state, EU referendum ..... they said it but didn;t do it.
( cue cries of the evil Lib dems stopped us)
The concept of a social democratic nation, with things like socialised health care and the like are increasingly different to maintain, with immigration, and an aging population putting more and more strain on expensive state structures.
1. The SDP fought the 1979 GE.
and/or
2. The SDP won no by-elections.
and/or
3. Wirral isn't in England. You have heard of Crosby, RodCrosby?
Rank these countries in terms of employment in public sector as percent of total:
Germany
The UK
Spain
Portugal
France
Denmark
Highest to lowest, and double points for guessing (approximately) the percentages.
Recovery.
France 19%
Germany - 17%
Denmark - 15%
Portugal - 11%
Spain - 10%
Blimey, if that's what they're openly saying on LabourList - what's it like behind closed doors?
Germany - 53%
France - 52%
Denmark - 46%
UK - 40%
Portugal - 36%
Edited extra bit: ahem, I misread the instruction
[In my defence, I'm quite sleepy].
Do I get a second go, or have I failed this exam?
(Edit: tortured analogy)
I've been looking in detail at the UKIP constituency polls, and I've found three things that I don't understand. I'm sure I'm being very thick on all of the following points, but I'm not that expert at reading the detail of opinion polls and I've got stuck.
1) In the Rochester & Strood opinion poll, it states that 1012 people have been polled. In the table of 2010 vote, it shows (weighted) Con 359, Lab 207, LD 52, Other 68, Did Not Vote 223. This totals 909. What are the other 103 people? Are they those who were not eligible to vote last time round?
I attach the detailed table here:
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Confidential-Rochester-and-Strood-Constituency-Poll-Weighted_Oct03.pdf
2) In the Boston & Skegness opinion poll, it states that 595 people have been polled. In the table of 2010 votes (weighted), we are told there are Con 76, Lab 55, LD 4, UKIP 23 (this varies a bit across questions, but not much). This totals 158. There is no Others or Did Not Vote total explicitly given. Is it really the case that fewer than a third of respondents, as weighted, voted for one of these four parties in 2010?
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Boston-Skegness-Results.pdf
In 2010 in practice turnout was over 60% in this constituency and just under 95% of those who voted, voted for one of these parties.
3) In 2010, the Conservatives outpolled Labour by 5:2 and UKIP by 5:1 in Boston & Skegness. Why are they apparently weighted in very different proportions now?
I expect the three questions can be summed up in one question: why is antifrank being so thick?
Could someone patiently talk me through these?
http://survation.com/a-note-on-methodology-for-our-constituency-phone-polls/
Before 4 and 2
After 6 and 5
I do agree Fisher will revert to a Tory plurality though.
My guess for (1) would be people who declined to answer that question. My guess for (2) would be that they overwhelmingly got people from one group (like retirees) who only account for a set amount of the electorate. No idea about 3.
Thanks.
A year ago the vast majority of PBers and the MSM were still saying that UKIP would be lucky to reach 5% in a GE and that 99% of tories would return home. They aren't saying it now.
Corporeals tongue in cheek leader to this thread, still can't quite believe the progress UKIP has made. True, there will be problems for UKIP in the future but these are the problems of a political party advancing and will be solved.
So those that can, get out there and vote UKIP!
Tim Montgomerie @TimMontgomerie 38m38 minutes ago
A message from @DouglasCarswell on By-Election Day
Only the Conservatives will guarantee and deliver an In /Out referendum. It will only happen if Cameron is Prime Minister #BetterOffOut
twitter.com/douglascarswell/status/443787388348006400 … #Clacton
twitter.com/TimMontgomerie/status/520115834761789440
Coventry South 2005
Sheffield Central 2010
Derbyshire NE 2015.
A grand tour indeed.
The Indy Ref was THE existential fight for Labour with all their Scottish seats. What they have in 2015 is a regular General Election. They may win or lose, but losing the Indy ref would have been far far bigger in the long term for Labour than GE 2015.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29548662
Didn't the Turkish Parliament vote a few days ago to permit Turkish troops to take action against ISIS?
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/oct/07/barcelona-la-liga-catalonia-spain
I'm sure there are good reasons why Catalonia should not go independent, but the idea that Spanish football is going to turn its back on one of its biggest cash cows is implausible.
Mr. Owls, not sure. Turkey didn't attack Assad beforehand, though.
The way Spanish football TV deals work isn't quite like the Premier League deal works.
In the health sector, the workforce is heartily sick of politically-motivated change. Little wonder that so many are taking early retirement or moving abroad.
UKIP do not whip their councillors nor their MPs. They oppose whipping on principle - something I agree with wholeheartedly and which is also something Carswell agrees with.
I wonder if they intend to continue with that with their MPs.
Secondly and slightly OT, UKIP have put up their policies in some areas on the website. Interesting to see what common ground there is between them and the Carswell/Hannan agenda (which I agree with wholeheartedly).
http://www.ukip.org/policies_for_people
Dan Walker @mrdanwalker
Cricket correspondent quits twitter after spat with popstar wife of England's best batsmen #StoriesThatWouldHaveMadeNoSense10YearsAgo
I think NE Derbyshire will be an easy enough Labour hold, (As will Cov S and Sheff C - all 1-100) but the interesting thing will be 2nd place - UKIP have an outside chance of beating CON here but what odds I'd price it up at - not sure)
On a serious note: let's say we get a UKIP government, whether majority or in coalition. Surely you'd have to whip on finance bills and manifesto pledges/coalition agreements?