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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,137
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?

New PB thread, Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surgewww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status…

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2013
    The Sun and Telegraph have gone much, much too far on the Cameron's this weekend, IMO.

    I've not been Cameron's biggest fan recently, but the way he is being treated today (Monday) is outrageous.

    Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Keep on mocking rEd until he is in No.10 Downing Street............
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Personally I don't think that the vote ukip get milibrand meme will gain much traction. Simply put I suspect many of those defecting are like me and defected from wanting to vote cameron first then looked for a party to vote for (still looking in my case)

    Vote UKIP get Milibrand only works if they believe Vote Cameron get Cameron is a hugely better option. I am not sure many defectors do think that
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    edited May 2013
    QTWTAIN.

    The bar for Ed M to win in 2015 (maj or plurality) is too low for it to work.

    Night all.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Class photo, TSE!

    Night all
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    "Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?"

    Working well, isn't it?

    As will 'vote Farage get Miliband' from a tory PM in coalition with the lib dems.
    Vote Clegg and you'll get Gordon Brown: As Lib Dems lead polls, Cameron warns Labour could be the winner

    David Cameron is warning voters that if they switch to the resurgent Liberal Democrats they will 'vote Clegg, get Brown'.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1267115/General-Election-2010-Vote-Nick-Clegg-Gordon-Brown-say-Tories.html
    That was another triumph for the incompetent fop.





  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    One much underreported story is how the Democratic governor of California has turned the finances of that state around. They now have a huge surplus:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/26/us/californias-new-problem-too-much-money.html?hp&_r=1&
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited May 2013
    GIN1138 said:

    The Sun and Telegraph have gone much, much too far on the Cameron's this weekend.

    Quite. It's one thing to write an editorial one day praising British stoicism and "Keeping Calm and Carrying On" - then the next day criticising the PM for doing exactly that....

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The Sun and Telegraph have gone much, much too far on the Cameron's this weekend, IMO.

    I've not been Cameron's biggest fan recently, but the way he is being treated today (Monday) is outrageous.

    Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well.

    Agree entirely. I dislike Cameron but this is just rubbish journalism. Perhaps prime ministers should be prevented from taking holidays in case anything bad happens anywhere at anytime to anyone, or even just THREATENS to happen.

    The papers have overreached. What were they thinking of? Cameron will get sympathy.

    Do they hand over to "junior staff" at holiday periods and weekends?

    I remember it was over a holiday (Christmas) that they collectively lost their minds about Christopher Jefferies and effectively accused him of being a murderer based on the fact he looked slightly strange...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Attacking Cameron for taking a short break? Idiots.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Poor old Cammie what a shame.

    Looks like the Brown and John Major type monsterings from the press are going to get really painful now.

    Damn you librul meeja!!

    LOL

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,889
    Mick_Pork said:

    Poor old Cammie what a shame.

    Looks like the Brown and John Major type monsterings from the press are going to get really painful now.

    Damn you librul meeja!!

    LOL

    They'll rue the day!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Poor old Cammie what a shame.

    Looks like the Brown and John Major type monsterings from the press are going to get really painful now.

    Damn you librul meeja!!

    LOL

    They'll rue the day!
    Moderated
  • UKIP need to be very careful here not to validate what is a false narrative and actually give it legs when it has none. Presumably this line is being used with Eurosceptic Tory donors who are not quite ready to take the leap but are unhappy with Cameron's Europhile positioning.

    Vote UKIP get Labour is very much like saying that Denis Law scored the goal that relegated Man United in 1974. Of course UNited were already down. Similarly, chances are Cameron is already defeated and a vote for UKIP is nothing more than a vote for UKIP.

    Given the rise in Labour's vote caused by the Libdems 'betrayal' of its left of centre voters by entering into the Coalition and given the electoral imbalance chances are Cameron is already beaten.

    The reality that the Tories are clearly relying on this purile narrative to recover voters who they have shown such contempt for suggest how little hope they have on building their vote from other sources.

  • Mick_Pork said:

    Poor old Cammie what a shame.

    Looks like the Brown and John Major type monsterings from the press are going to get really painful now.

    Damn you librul meeja!!

    LOL

    Its all a bit deja vu. Remember when he went of to Rwanda in 2007?

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6911216.stm
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,675
    Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.

    I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference last autumn must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!

    He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    The "weak" attack is promising and the idea of asking UKIP voters to back the Tories against Labour is obviously a good idea, but the two don't go together.

    If you want people to discard their first preference, you need to make the alternative sound properly scarey, like he will BANKRUPT BRITAIN or DESTROY THE NHS or EAT THE QUEEN or FIST THE POUND. There's no point in threatening people with the idea that he'll BE A BIT RUBBISH AND UNCHARISMATIC AND NOT GET MUCH DONE.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Labour to finish 3% behind the Tories in the popular vote.

    That's my current prediction...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Sunil

    Doesn't Ed clarify or cut through anymore?
  • Why do we still think Ed is crap? Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.

    I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference last autumn must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!

    He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.

    Ed Who?

    ;-)
  • I'm sure the Tories will use this meme in their leaflets and advertising. No doubt they will try to portray Miliband as being in hoc to the unions and likely to put up taxes. The issue is you can divide the people who are currently intending to vote for UKIP into 4 groups:

    1) The 3% who actually voted for UKIP in 2010 - they are unlikely to switch
    2) People who voted Lab/Lib/BNP in 2010 - may not stick with UKIP but unlikely to switch to Con
    3) People who voted Con in 2010 but will never go back while Cameron is in charge (if ever)
    4) People who voted Con in 2010 but might be persuadable.

    So really this strategy will only work on group 4 and we have no way of knowing the % of ex-Tories in group 3 and group 4.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    How did this man ever get to be leading the Labour party?

    Oh, I remember now...

    AV

    *titters*
  • I do wonder if the Vote UKIP get Labour narrative could turn out to be counter-productive. Isn't there a risk that in relatively safe Tory seats (such as those now under pressure in Kent) it could encourage the Labour vote to vote tactically for UKIP?


  • AndyJS said:

    @Sunil

    Doesn't Ed clarify or cut through anymore?

    Ed doesn't believe in cuts......
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I don't think Ed is going to frighten many UKIP voters into returning to the Tories.

    You need someone like Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock or Gordon Brown to do that.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    It is not looking good for him when his own side are producing front pages like that.
    GIN1138 said:

    The Sun and Telegraph have gone much, much too far on the Cameron's this weekend, IMO.

    I've not been Cameron's biggest fan recently, but the way he is being treated today (Monday) is outrageous.

    Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    It is not looking good for him when his own side are producing front pages like that.

    GIN1138 said:

    The Sun and Telegraph have gone much, much too far on the Cameron's this weekend, IMO.

    I've not been Cameron's biggest fan recently, but the way he is being treated today (Monday) is outrageous.

    Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well.

    The press are brutal when they turn on someone. But if it's any consolation, they don't like to run with any single narrative for too long. Sooner or later they'll come for Farage.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Don't forget EdM and his Rubik's cube ;-)

    It is not looking good for him when his own side are producing front pages like that.

    GIN1138 said:

    The Sun and Telegraph have gone much, much too far on the Cameron's this weekend, IMO.

    I've not been Cameron's biggest fan recently, but the way he is being treated today (Monday) is outrageous.

    Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well.

    The press are brutal when they turn on someone. But if it's any consolation, they don't like to run with any single narrative for too long. Sooner or later they'll come for Farage.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Don't forget EdM and his Rubik's cube ;-)

    It is not looking good for him when his own side are producing front pages like that.

    GIN1138 said:

    The Sun and Telegraph have gone much, much too far on the Cameron's this weekend, IMO.

    I've not been Cameron's biggest fan recently, but the way he is being treated today (Monday) is outrageous.

    Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well.

    The press are brutal when they turn on someone. But if it's any consolation, they don't like to run with any single narrative for too long. Sooner or later they'll come for Farage.
    Oddly I think Ed Miliband has less to fear from a negative narrative, because he's never had a positive one. He floats serenely above the media cycle, in a cloud of perpetual meh.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    OT, the new populist right-wing party in Japan led by the mayor of Osaka seems to be falling to bits. He got in trouble by articulating a common populist right view take on comfort women, then keeps digging himself a deeper hole, not least recommending that US servicemen in Okinawa make use of their excellent selection of local brothels.

    A few right-wing insurgent candidates in the US got into trouble talking about rape as well. UKIP should hire somebody to follow Farage around and let off the fire alarm if they hear anybody mention it.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    There needs to be a poll of UKIP voters to measure their willingness to tactically vote against Labour, their opinion of Miliband and to what degree they prefer Cameron to Miliband.

    I imagine Michael Ashcroft will pay for a public poll at some point (I imagine the 4 parties have already comissioned private polls on the issue).

    A quick look at the various poll UKIP subsamples (yes, I know, huge error bars and pinches of salt required), Cameron seems just as unpopular as Miliband, but it looks like, at a push, UKIP voters would rather have Cameron as PM over Miliband. Doesn't really tell us much we couldn't have already guessed.

    Still, the next election will be defined by tactical voting.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Oliver_PB said:

    There needs to be a poll of UKIP voters to measure their willingness to tactically vote against Labour, their opinion of Miliband and to what degree they prefer Cameron to Miliband.

    I imagine Michael Ashcroft will pay for a public poll at some point (I imagine the 4 parties have already comissioned private polls on the issue).

    A quick look at the various poll UKIP subsamples (yes, I know, huge error bars and pinches of salt required), Cameron seems just as unpopular as Miliband, but it looks like, at a push, UKIP voters would rather have Cameron as PM over Miliband. Doesn't really tell us much we couldn't have already guessed.

    Still, the next election will be defined by tactical voting.

    I'm not convinced tactical voting will be much of factor as such, except to protect incumbent LibDems. The former LibDem left are already Labour, so they don't need to vote tactically. And the UKIP surge is too recent for right-wingers to learn how to vote tactically in time. It's hard for ordinary voters to get it right, especially with all the parties lying about who's Winning Here.

    What's more likely is just a traditional, old-fashioned squeeze, caused by the two-party contest for PM sucking up all the media oxygen.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,595
    One things a virtual given about 2015. The Tories and their right wing outriders will do everything in their power to do to Milliband what they did to Kinnock in 92.

    If they look like losing, it will be nasty.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    Jonathan said:

    One things a virtual given about 2015. The Tories and their right wing outriders will do everything in their power to do to Milliband what they did to Kinnock in 92.

    If they look like losing, it will be nasty.

    I don't think I've seen an election yet where somebody isn't claiming it will be the nastiest ever and it's always their opponents who are the unprincipled scoundrels.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    @Jonathan

    Do you think the Tories will be learning from Labour?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    Ed is not a positive for Labour, to say the least! But he is up against a toxic Tory brand. A decent leader would see Labour walk 2015. But Ed has a decent chance of getting the party to most seats status.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Lovely morning for it !! .... let's not be controversial on a beautiful bank holiday .... So :

    Let's nuke Nigel Farage .... all in the best possible taste :

    http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40196000/jpg/_40196921_everett_203.jpg
  • david_kendrick1david_kendrick1 Posts: 325
    edited May 2013
    UKIP activists are much more anti the EU than UKIP voters. Our fear is that if Cameron wins the next GE, we'll have a 'fixed' referendum on the EU.

    A substantive re-negotiation of the UK's deal with the EU would be very difficult for anyone---maybe impossible. Best if it were handled by a canny operator, who's heart was in it, and who was clearly prepared to walk away if he didn't get what he wanted. Cameron ticks none of those 3 boxes.

    We believe that the only way to move from BOO to actually out is to have as many votes for UKIP as possible, anywhere and everywhere.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    That did occur to me for a while, but since Camerons recent relying on Labour to get a vote through because more of his own party voted against him than for him, I don't see what the difference is, we get Labour whether Tory or Labour is in power.

    I will vote UKIP and if it lets in Labour so be it. At least then I will be able to enjoy the spectacle of wealthy Cameroons having to pay far more tax (and not before time). The tories need to suffer the same fate as their sister party in Canada to bring them to their senses. If Nadine wants me to vote for her again she will have to defect.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited May 2013
    @Tim

    (Very OT-sorry)

    Remember a film you were waxing lyrical about a few years ago called 'Couscous' well it seems you spotted an early talent because the director has just won the Palme d'Or at Cannes for his new film-a three hour lesbian drama-'Blue is the Warmest Colour'. (I was luke warm on Couscous and watched it again and it was much better than I remembered it.)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2013
    @Paul_Mid_Beds

    Wouldn't "wealthy Cameroons" pay substantially less tax under Ukip's whimsical flat rate tax of 25% ??
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,252
    JackW said:

    Lovely morning for it !! .... let's not be controversial on a beautiful bank holiday .... So :

    Let's nuke Nigel Farage .... all in the best possible taste :

    http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40196000/jpg/_40196921_everett_203.jpg

    It is wet and beautiful in God's country
  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Blimey the newspapers have got it in for Cameron this morning. Haven't seen anything quite like it since Callaghan returned from the Caribbean during the winter of discontent and nonchalantly waved the reporters aside. Probably lost him the election.
    I'm not a Tory but it's a bit unfair on Cameron isn't it?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    malcolmg said:

    JackW said:

    Lovely morning for it !! .... let's not be controversial on a beautiful bank holiday .... So :

    Let's nuke Nigel Farage .... all in the best possible taste :

    http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40196000/jpg/_40196921_everett_203.jpg

    It is wet and beautiful in God's country
    Harpenden, Holland Park, Rutland, or The Highlands ??

  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited May 2013
    @Gin
    "Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well."

    I agree but it does make you wonder why Cameron chose to have that PR picture taken of him and Sam on holiday. If a PM and doesn't want to be photographed they just don't ask a photographer to photograph them.

    I'm beginning to think he's an idiot.

    PS.

    @Jonathan

    Why did you change your avatar from 'No Right Turn'? It was the smartest one on here.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    A little requestlet from moi.

    Any PBer use a Samsung S4 .... review please ?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Blimey the newspapers have got it in for Cameron this morning. Haven't seen anything quite like it since Callaghan returned from the Caribbean during the winter of discontent and nonchalantly waved the reporters aside. Probably lost him the election.
    I'm not a Tory but it's a bit unfair on Cameron isn't it?

    I know - what do they expect Cameron to be doing about it? He's not a sodding superhero.

    Mind you, the papers aren't the force they once were, and at least some of the diminishing minority who still read them will know a substance-free media pile-on when they see one.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Roger

    I would think Cameron agreed to a few pictures to ensure the press didn't dog the rest of his break. Seems reasonable.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,519
    FPT very:

    " You need to deploy both short term and long term measures,

    In the short term there is a need to avoid catastrophic falls in house prices as have been experienced on the continent, even in the strong economies, like the Netherlands where house prices fell by 8.9% last year.

    Such falls destroy bank balance sheets, depress consumer confidence and aggravate downside recessionary risks. "

    The problem is your 'short term' becomes long term.

    So 0.5% interest rates were meant to be 'short term', QE was meant to be 'short term' and then reversed and Osborne's sub-prime schemes are meant to be 'short term'.

    And each time the market gets hooked on the new 'short term' drug and the long term situation is further damaged.

    Meanwhile we're due for the next cyclical recession in 2016-7 while your still bringing in more 'short term' policies to stop the correction which should have happened after the last recession.

    And there is nothing wrong with house prices falling - it helps economic and social mobility, especially among the young, and it kills the utterly malign mentality of people treating their houses as cash machines.


  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212
    Allegedly, there's a Com Res poll giving scores of UKIP 27%, Lab 23%, Con 21% for the Euros.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,519
    I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested.

    Lovely weather too.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Sean_F

    Sean, are you still in one of the Luton constituencies ?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,287
    Sean_F said:

    Allegedly, there's a Com Res poll giving scores of UKIP 27%, Lab 23%, Con 21% for the Euros.

    If true, that would be mildly disappointing for the kippers, not so bad for the blue lovelies and pretty grim for Labour.

  • RicardohosRicardohos Posts: 258
    Roger said:

    @Gin
    "Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well."

    I agree but it does make you wonder why Cameron chose to have that PR picture taken of him and Sam on holiday. If a PM and doesn't want to be photographed they just don't ask a photographer to photograph them.

    I'm beginning to think he's an idiot.

    PS.

    @Jonathan

    Why did you change your avatar from 'No Right Turn'? It was the smartest one on here.

    I've got to agree with you. It's pretty stupid PR to have that photo taken. That's what happens when you have someone who apes Tony Blair but lacks the latter's savvy aka. smarm.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sean_F said:

    Allegedly, there's a Com Res poll giving scores of UKIP 27%, Lab 23%, Con 21% for the Euros.

    29% for LD + Other? Pirate surge? Or are they not scaling up the don't knows, so UKIP are really in the 30s somewhere?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,314
    JackW said:

    @Roger

    I would think Cameron agreed to a few pictures to ensure the press didn't dog the rest of his break. Seems reasonable.

    In addition, some on here would be bleating on about him being 'in hiding' or afraid.

    Who'd want to go into politics?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested.

    Lovely weather too

    If Cameron had cancelled his holiday some papers would have said it was a sign of panic and allowing terrorists to set the agenda.

    Cleethorpes is certainly a step too far !!

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,212
    Jack W, yes, Luton South.

    John O, it would be interesting to know how the other 29% splits.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    Sean_F said:

    Allegedly, there's a Com Res poll giving scores of UKIP 27%, Lab 23%, Con 21% for the Euros.

    If true, that would be mildly disappointing for the kippers, not so bad for the blue lovelies and pretty grim for Labour.

    Are you really one of the "blue lovelies" - Hhhmmm - they say travel broadens the mind !!

  • hucks67hucks67 Posts: 758
    I think people under-estimate Ed M's abilities. He won the leaders contest, standing against his own brother who was favourite to win. How many people would be willing to do that and stand up to the criticism that would follow ? Hardly weak. In regards to leadership style, sometime strong leadership can be arrogant leadership. For example Cameron did not properly debate same sex marriage and win the argument within the Tory party. He told them he was going to make the change, on the assumption that other parties in parliament would back him.
  • WilliamOWilliamO Posts: 16
    "Vote weird (UKIP) get weirdo (Milliband)" .. Will be the slogan I'll be putting out their at the 2015 election.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @hucks67

    It's a bit of a stretch to say Cameron lacked leadership on the gay marriage issue. He's taken a potentially very unpopular issue in his party and brought half his party and voters with him. He also allowed a free vote whereas Ed forced a whipped vote that 22 Labour MP's ignored.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    edited May 2013
    @AR

    "I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested."

    They'd be interviewing psychiatrists
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    hucks67 said:

    I think people under-estimate Ed M's abilities. He won the leaders contest, standing against his own brother who was favourite to win. How many people would be willing to do that and stand up to the criticism that would follow ? Hardly weak. In regards to leadership style, sometime strong leadership can be arrogant leadership. For example Cameron did not properly debate same sex marriage and win the argument within the Tory party. He told them he was going to make the change, on the assumption that other parties in parliament would back him.

    I agree, he's ruthless, gutsy, and a very sharp strategist.

    But he's also short on charisma, and voters have a hard time imaging him as PM. The Tories would be mad not to try to come up with a way to take advantage of that.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,519
    JackW said:

    I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested.

    Lovely weather too

    If Cameron had cancelled his holiday some papers would have said it was a sign of panic and allowing terrorists to set the agenda.

    Cleethorpes is certainly a step too far !!

    You do realise that the Conservatives need the votes of the type of people who live in or go to places like Cleethorpes.

    I'm truly baffled at the condescension 'High Tories' like you and Avery aim towards anyone who doesn't have the 'right' background.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362

    JackW said:

    I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested.

    Lovely weather too

    If Cameron had cancelled his holiday some papers would have said it was a sign of panic and allowing terrorists to set the agenda.

    Cleethorpes is certainly a step too far !!

    You do realise that the Conservatives need the votes of the type of people who live in or go to places like Cleethorpes.

    I'm truly baffled at the condescension 'High Tories' like you and Avery aim towards anyone who doesn't have the 'right' background.
    people like Jack are desperate for a Labour government so that the south east can have heavier taxes and they can spend 5 years moaning about it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    @a_r


    "I'm truly baffled at the condescension 'High Tories' like you and Avery aim towards anyone who doesn't have the 'right' background."

    You're one of the must read posters on here. I just cant understand why you're not a lefty. The site is seriously short of a fire and brimstone lefty poster.

    PS. What about Morecambe?


    http://www.historic-images.co.uk/wp-content/gallery/morecambe-funny-postcards/funny-comic-seaside-postcard__theres-plenty-to-see-at-morecambe-1975.jpg
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 993
    JackW said:

    A little requestlet from moi.

    Any PBer use a Samsung S4 .... review please ?

    A Samsung S4!! - Jack what will your team of cleft stick carrying chaps do now?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,519
    Roger said:

    @AR

    "I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested."

    They'd be interviewing psychiatrists

    Thank you Roger for confirming my thoughts.

    On one side of the privileged metropolitan coin are the champagen socialists, on the other side the Cameroons.

    All of them believing themselves above the provincial proles, all of them unable to resist sneering at those provincial proles.

    Then they wonder why those provincial proles are now voting UKIP.

    Unwilling to consider that their attitudes might be at fault their only answer is yet more sneering.

  • WilliamOWilliamO Posts: 16
    The newspapers are being pathetic by having a go at Cameron for taking a short break. If their not careful the public will actually start feeling sorry for him and his ratings will go up!
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @another_richard and @Alanbrooke

    Hey ho PB at its funniest in successive posts.

    "another_richard tags me a "High Tory" and "Alanbrooke" decides I want a Labour government !!

    I haven't been described as a faux Ukipper yet but I'm sure it's out there somewhere !!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    JackW said:

    Lovely morning for it !! .... let's not be controversial on a beautiful bank holiday .... So :

    Let's nuke Nigel Farage .... all in the best possible taste :

    http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40196000/jpg/_40196921_everett_203.jpg

    Good morning, gentle folk.
    A nuke would be better placed up some peculiar/weird and slightly insane jacobites arse; and I don't mean ARSE. All in the best possible taste, of course.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Icarus said:

    JackW said:

    A little requestlet from moi.

    Any PBer use a Samsung S4 .... review please ?

    A Samsung S4!! - Jack what will your team of cleft stick carrying chaps do now?
    Lol

    There are other little jobs that one hopes will earn them gainful employment. The machinery of fine pie making certainly requires a de-sandal more frequently than I expected !!

    Titters grimly ....

    I've had a S3 for a little under a year. Battery life is a wee bit limited if you use extensively but that apart it's a very good phone. Is the S4 that much better ??

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    MikeK said:

    JackW said:

    Lovely morning for it !! .... let's not be controversial on a beautiful bank holiday .... So :

    Let's nuke Nigel Farage .... all in the best possible taste :

    http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40196000/jpg/_40196921_everett_203.jpg

    Good morning, gentle folk.
    A nuke would be better placed up some peculiar/weird and slightly insane jacobites arse; and I don't mean ARSE. All in the best possible taste, of course.
    A very good morning to you MikeK ....

    I recommend to you an extensive course of colonic irrigation to remove the anally retentive aspects of your postings.

    Tubes ahoy !!!!!!!!!!!

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,519
    Roger said:

    @a_r


    "I'm truly baffled at the condescension 'High Tories' like you and Avery aim towards anyone who doesn't have the 'right' background."

    You're one of the must read posters on here. I just cant understand why you're not a lefty. The site is seriously short of a fire and brimstone lefty poster.

    PS. What about Morecambe?


    http://www.historic-images.co.uk/wp-content/gallery/morecambe-funny-postcards/funny-comic-seaside-postcard__theres-plenty-to-see-at-morecambe-1975.jpg

    I've seen the effects of lefties in power.

    Whether its national government, local government or the unions it follows the same pattern - a power mad egotist ordering the proles around while personally enriching themselves.

    Nothing wrong with Morecambe but I would prefer Scarborough.

    But neither place offers the SamCam personal anecdote which Cleethorpes does.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    edited May 2013
    JackW said:

    @another_richard and @Alanbrooke

    Hey ho PB at its funniest in successive posts.

    "another_richard tags me a "High Tory" and "Alanbrooke" decides I want a Labour government !!

    I haven't been described as a faux Ukipper yet but I'm sure it's out there somewhere !!

    Well no my haggisheaded jacobite.

    I've been mulling this matter for a while, why the SE blues and higher echelons fail to connect with a large part of their potential vote and haven't done so since 1992.

    I've decided to blame Thatcher. Looking back at the 80s/90s I think it's been a score draw. The Right won the argument of economics hands down helped hugely by the competition going bust in 1989. The Left on the other has run off with the laurels on the social arguments helped by a variety of matters such as demographic change and to some extent the right not bothering to advance a counter argument.

    The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices. The current CP is actually happier to risk the extra costs of a Labour government if it doesn't upset the social consensus. The problem arises when the "consensus" turns out not to be one since parts of the country aren't that happy with the social agenda proposed, hence the rise of UKIP. The problem thereafter is how the current CP can reconcile people who are economically of the right but who differ on social values ( or in some cases where the social vlaues are degrading the economics ). The leadership of the CP currently don't know how to do this and if push came to shove I suspect they'd rank the social agenda ahead of the economic one.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,837
    Morning all :)

    A fine morning here in lowland East London. I seem to remember huge panic whenever past Prime Ministers went on holiday amid concern of leaving "the Deputy" in charge. There was always much hilarity when Blair and Thatcher went on holiday as to who was "in charge" or "running the show" and I well remember the Cameroons on here seething at the very idea of Nick Clegg running the country for a week or two.

    It doesn't matter - it's interesting to read Cameron's increasingly-desperate supporters asserting that the negative coverage will generate sympathy and work in his favour.

    The fact is for all the frenzy over last week's events in Woolwich, life goes on. Lee Rigby will be remembered and rightly so but apart from the heat, where is the light? The test will be to see if his murder will change anything in temrs of attitudes, perceptions and actions. I fear (and this was probably the aim of those controlling the killers) that it will increase and distort the misconceptions and divisions between muslims and others and prevent dialogue and understanding.

    As others have said the "crisis" has been long in its preparation - a Prime Minister having a few days holiday with his family makes no difference.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Really boring thread this morning.

    Note to TSB: I know it's a bank holiday and all that, but you must put some oomph into these threads. That sorry photo of rED is enough to drive any but the most die-hard labourite away from that party, so thread irrelevant.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    @Alanbrooke:
    "The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices."

    Hence the rise and rise of UKIP, if only because people are fed up with the same party: Lab/Lib/Con.

    Edited
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,481
    Oh yes, the "Vote Yellow, Get Brown" meme of the last election really depressed the Lib Dem vote, didn't it?
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Re: Bank Holidays

    "S. KOREA
    "Working hours in South Korea are some of the longest in the world - it's not unusual for office workers to stay in the office until 9 o'clock at night - and nobody leaves before the boss. So when a bank holiday rolls around, there's a desperate bid to break for freedom....
    Most people head to the coast or to the cool, forested mountains in the north, particularly when the bank holiday creates the chance for a long weekend. For many Koreans, this little escape is a substitute for the annual leave they don't take. The working culture here is so strong, that a day or two at a time is the most some office workers say they can afford without incurring disapproval from their senior colleagues."

    United States
    The average American gets less than three weeks' paid holiday a year - assuming they've got a job. So when a public holiday comes around, like Memorial Day, it is embraced with relish - relish that usually goes with along with the hot dogs, burgers and tacos at a family cookout. It's a day for getting out and doing something. And that usually means packing a lot in, seeing family and friends and making the most of the day.

    Italy
    A day off work in Italy. What could be better. The possibilities are endless - there's the food and the wine, and the countryside, and in this long, thin nation many people live close to the beach. And the great thing about Italian bank holidays is that they aren't tied to Mondays. They float around in the week. So if there's one on a Thursday, you might get the Friday off too, and then disappear for a very long weekend.

    India
    As India's economy continues to grow, lots of the youngsters around in the IT sector are working long hours, six days a week....But for hundreds of millions of Indians, a bank holiday is just another day, because they cannot afford to stop working if they want to survive. Here in the world's largest democracy, bank holidays are for the rich. For the poor they are just another day."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22655033

    Perhaps the UK could copy S Korea and the USA a bit more and Italy a bit less - and I am in work today as I was yesterday.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    MikeK said:

    @Alanbrooke:
    "The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices."

    Hence the rise and rise of UKIP, if only because people are fed up with the same party: Lab/Lib/Con.

    Edited

    And you think you'll be different ?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MikeK said:

    @Alanbrooke:
    "The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices."

    Hence the rise and rise of UKIP, if only because people are fed up with the same party: Lab/Lib/Con.

    Edited

    yebut ukip knows what makes people angry but offers no real solutions to our problems except buggins turn.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited May 2013
    @Alanbrooke - Some interesting points there.

    To my mind the rise of Ukip is really quite simple and arises from the confluence of several disparate factors, amongst which are :

    1. A growing disconnect between all parties and the public.
    2. A continuing disconnect between voters and the EU
    3. The absence of the LibDems as opposition to a Conservative government.
    4. The Conservatives move to more socially liberal policies.
    5. An uninspiring Labour opposition.
    6. Normal mid-term blues.
    7. Farage as a high profile media friendly leader.
    8. Until recently little in depth scrutiny of Ukip policies.
    9. Immigration as a continuing concern.
    10. Open hostility of conservative press to Cameron
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    Roger said:

    @Gin
    "Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well."

    I agree but it does make you wonder why Cameron chose to have that PR picture taken of him and Sam on holiday. If a PM and doesn't want to be photographed they just don't ask a photographer to photograph them.

    I'm beginning to think he's an idiot.

    PS.

    @Jonathan

    Why did you change your avatar from 'No Right Turn'? It was the smartest one on here.

    I've got to agree with you. It's pretty stupid PR to have that photo taken. That's what happens when you have someone who apes Tony Blair but lacks the latter's savvy aka. smarm.

    If we don't want to be intimidated by the terrorists it's right that Cameron should continued with his planned holiday - "keep calm and carry on".

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,837
    I don't know whether the "Vote UKIP, get Labour" message will work. It clearly won't in low turnout local or European parliamentary elections but in May 2015, who knows?

    The campaign will play a huge part - it will be facinating to see how many people have "decided" before the first debate for example. The Conservatives need to remember that the only opponent that matters is Labour. Neither the LDs nor UKIP are that relevant in and of themselves. They will also be aware that the LD line in 2015 will be the same as 2010 - first refusal to the party with most votes.

    That means that the key prerequisite is to finish ahead in the popular vote though to be fair if they are second, the chances of being able to form a majority coalition with the LDs will probably be nil and it will either be a Labour majority or as near as makes no difference.

    One or two on here yesterday were suggesting the LDs could form a Coalition with Labour after 2015 - I don't see it. Labour won't want it and the LDs won't want it either.

    If the 2015 result was a mirror of 2010, would the Coalition continue ? That's a far more interesting question.

    As for whether this thread is "boring", I would offer two thoughts - one, make it interesting or two, go out and enjoy the day.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,509

    JackW said:

    @another_richard and @Alanbrooke

    Hey ho PB at its funniest in successive posts.

    "another_richard tags me a "High Tory" and "Alanbrooke" decides I want a Labour government !!

    I haven't been described as a faux Ukipper yet but I'm sure it's out there somewhere !!

    Well no my haggisheaded jacobite.

    I've been mulling this matter for a while, why the SE blues and higher echelons fail to connect with a large part of their potential vote and haven't done so since 1992.

    I've decided to blame Thatcher. Looking back at the 80s/90s I think it's been a score draw. The Right won the argument of economics hands down helped hugely by the competition going bust in 1989. The Left on the other has run off with the laurels on the social arguments helped by a variety of matters such as demographic change and to some extent the right not bothering to advance a counter argument.

    The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices. The current CP is actually happier to risk the extra costs of a Labour government if it doesn't upset the social consensus. The problem arises when the "consensus" turns out not to be one since parts of the country aren't that happy with the social agenda proposed, hence the rise of UKIP. The problem thereafter is how the current CP can reconcile people who are economically of the right but who differ on social values ( or in some cases where the social vlaues are degrading the economics ). The leadership of the CP currently don't know how to do this and if push came to shove I suspect they'd rank the social agenda ahead of the economic one.
    Interesting analysis. The other element is generational change. Generalising, most young people today generally accept both the trends you identify - they think of socialism as a historical phenomenon and broadly accept the free market, and they think multi-ethnic culture and sexual diversity is just how life is and what's the problem? Cameron and Blair both recognised that and tried to move their parties accordingly: parties don't much like being moved and they put up with it only as long as you deliver victories.

    This is where voting systems make a big difference. With PR we'd have several niche parties, putting the case for their idea of how things ought to be, trying to change voters' attitudes and content to get say 10-15% of the vote, but with FPTP it's tempting to just pretend to agree with the drift of public sentiment on everything. Voters aren't really fooled so they irritably look round for authentic yet credible alternatives, which are in short supply.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    perdix said:

    MikeK said:

    @Alanbrooke:
    "The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices."

    Hence the rise and rise of UKIP, if only because people are fed up with the same party: Lab/Lib/Con.

    Edited

    yebut ukip knows what makes people angry but offers no real solutions to our problems except buggins turn.

    So, perdix, what do you offer as solution to Britain's present problems, which are national decay and a multicultural/PC society gone mad?

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    JackW said:

    @Alanbrooke - Some interesting points there.

    To my mind the rise of Ukip is really quite simple and arises from the confluence of several disparate factors, amongst which are :

    1. A growing disconnect between all parties and the public.
    2. A continuing disconnect between voters and the EU
    3. The absence of the LibDems as opposition to a Conservative government.
    4. The Conservatives move to more socially liberal policies.
    5. An uninspiring Labour opposition.
    6. Normal mid-term blues.
    7. Farage as a high profile media friendly leader.
    8. Until recently little in depth scrutiny of Ukip policies.
    9. Immigration as a continuing concern.

    Well while that might explain the rise of UKIP, what the tribal blues have yet to explain is why the current CP can't connect with people who should naturally vote for it. Effectively the blues are increasingly a southern regionalist party with little to offer outside their homelands.

    The mantra the voters will come back seems very complacent imo. As someone who's voted blue for most of my adult life I won't at the next GE since I can't see the point. What do the blues offer someone in the Midlands, the North or in Scotland ? There appears very little of note in the conservative debate to engage these parts of the country, therein lies part of the "disconnect" between the current CP and its potential supporters. Have the Conservatives have become a bunch of lazy sods who can't be bothered chasing votes or have they disconnected with the real world to the point where they have no ideas on moving the whole of the country forward ? Whatever it is the lack of dynamism is no better than Ed's lack of policy and decerves to get its rewards at the ballot box.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,449
    Nick Palmer - Maybe, but voters have not accepted pure capitalism either (ie no state funding for public services at all, a flat tax etc) or pure social liberalism (legalisation of all drugs etc and there is evidence even young people are concerned about abortion of liberal on homosexuality). Of course PR would see a more plural political spectrum with more seats for RESPECT/TUSC, the Greens and UKIP and dare I say the BNP!
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Whereas lib lab con do not care what the little people think and offer no real solution to our problems except buggins term. Yes I can see how that is so much better.
    perdix said:



    yebut ukip knows what makes people angry but offers no real solutions to our problems except buggins turn.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    JackW said:

    @Roger

    I would think Cameron agreed to a few pictures to ensure the press didn't dog the rest of his break. Seems reasonable.

    In addition, some on here would be bleating on about him being 'in hiding' or afraid.

    Who'd want to go into politics?
    That's a real issue. There are masses of really talented people of my generation who previously would have gone into public service (possibly including myself, although strike out 'talented' if you feel like it) who now won't consider it because of the impact on their families
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    tim said:

    @Financier

    Which country in Europe has the most holidays, Germany and Denmark 40 days, the lowest Romania 27 days.
    Anecdotal rubbish linking economic success directly to hours worked.

    That explains why Romanians are going to Germany - they want more days off.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Morning :^ )

    I see nothing it still happening this weekend in the finest BHols tradition.

    On that note - anyone seen Warehouse 13? I've just started and it looks promising. Eureka was pretty good but by S5 it was getting itself in the usual knots re resurrected characters.

    Re Cameron's holiday - what a fuss about nothing again. I feel rather sorry for him which clearly wasn't the reaction the Mail or DT wanted to generate.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    JackW said:

    I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested.

    Lovely weather too

    If Cameron had cancelled his holiday some papers would have said it was a sign of panic and allowing terrorists to set the agenda.

    Cleethorpes is certainly a step too far !!

    You do realise that the Conservatives need the votes of the type of people who live in or go to places like Cleethorpes.

    I'm truly baffled at the condescension 'High Tories' like you and Avery aim towards anyone who doesn't have the 'right' background.
    Can I gently point out that Avery and JackW are not representative either of Tories or even of 'High Tories'.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    JackW said:

    @Alanbrooke - Some interesting points there.

    To my mind the rise of Ukip is really quite simple and arises from the confluence of several disparate factors, amongst which are :

    1. A growing disconnect between all parties and the public.
    2. A continuing disconnect between voters and the EU
    3. The absence of the LibDems as opposition to a Conservative government.
    4. The Conservatives move to more socially liberal policies.
    5. An uninspiring Labour opposition.
    6. Normal mid-term blues.
    7. Farage as a high profile media friendly leader.
    8. Until recently little in depth scrutiny of Ukip policies.
    9. Immigration as a continuing concern.

    Well while that might explain the rise of UKIP, what the tribal blues have yet to explain is why the current CP can't connect with people who should naturally vote for it. Effectively the blues are increasingly a southern regionalist party with little to offer outside their homelands.

    The mantra the voters will come back seems very complacent imo. As someone who's voted blue for most of my adult life I won't at the next GE since I can't see the point. What do the blues offer someone in the Midlands, the North or in Scotland ? There appears very little of note in the conservative debate to engage these parts of the country, therein lies part of the "disconnect" between the current CP and its potential supporters. Have the Conservatives have become a bunch of lazy sods who can't be bothered chasing votes or have they disconnected with the real world to the point where they have no ideas on moving the whole of the country forward ? Whatever it is the lack of dynamism is no better than Ed's lack of policy and decerves to get its rewards at the ballot box.
    Could it be, Alanbrooke, that knowing where our so called liberal elite has led us, that you are beginning to see the light?

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    @Alanbrooke

    Much depends on what you mean by "southern regionalist party" Are we talking south of the Trent or south of Hadrian's Wall ?

    Much might be said of Labour - urban and Northern ??

    ....................................................

    Anyway .... lovely day, Mrs Jack W and I are going to meander around rural Hertfordshire and have a long pub lunch !!

    Enjoy the day PBers ....

    Toddles ....

  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @Financier

    Which country in Europe has the most holidays, Germany and Denmark 40 days, the lowest Romania 27 days.
    Anecdotal rubbish linking economic success directly to hours worked.

    It is about time you used facts instead of conjecture. In 2013 Germany has 20 working days paid holiday (those who work a 5 day week) plus 9 national (day) holidays that do not fall on a weekend.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    @a_r

    "Whether its national government, local government or the unions it follows the same pattern - a power mad egotist ordering the proles around while personally enriching themselves"

    So this has persuaded you that the answer is Nigel Farage who exploits a primeval fear of foreigners to frighten the old and uneducated?
This discussion has been closed.