Categories
Options
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surge?
New PB thread, Is Ed Miliband Cameron’s secret antidote to the UKIP surgewww7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status…
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
I've not been Cameron's biggest fan recently, but the way he is being treated today (Monday) is outrageous.
Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well.
Vote UKIP get Milibrand only works if they believe Vote Cameron get Cameron is a hugely better option. I am not sure many defectors do think that
The bar for Ed M to win in 2015 (maj or plurality) is too low for it to work.
Night all.
Night all
Working well, isn't it?
As will 'vote Farage get Miliband' from a tory PM in coalition with the lib dems. That was another triumph for the incompetent fop.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/26/us/californias-new-problem-too-much-money.html?hp&_r=1&
I remember it was over a holiday (Christmas) that they collectively lost their minds about Christopher Jefferies and effectively accused him of being a murderer based on the fact he looked slightly strange...
Looks like the Brown and John Major type monsterings from the press are going to get really painful now.
Damn you librul meeja!!
LOL
Vote UKIP get Labour is very much like saying that Denis Law scored the goal that relegated Man United in 1974. Of course UNited were already down. Similarly, chances are Cameron is already defeated and a vote for UKIP is nothing more than a vote for UKIP.
Given the rise in Labour's vote caused by the Libdems 'betrayal' of its left of centre voters by entering into the Coalition and given the electoral imbalance chances are Cameron is already beaten.
The reality that the Tories are clearly relying on this purile narrative to recover voters who they have shown such contempt for suggest how little hope they have on building their vote from other sources.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6911216.stm
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance at Conference last autumn must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy posh boy Cameron.
If you want people to discard their first preference, you need to make the alternative sound properly scarey, like he will BANKRUPT BRITAIN or DESTROY THE NHS or EAT THE QUEEN or FIST THE POUND. There's no point in threatening people with the idea that he'll BE A BIT RUBBISH AND UNCHARISMATIC AND NOT GET MUCH DONE.
That's my current prediction...
Doesn't Ed clarify or cut through anymore?
;-)
1) The 3% who actually voted for UKIP in 2010 - they are unlikely to switch
2) People who voted Lab/Lib/BNP in 2010 - may not stick with UKIP but unlikely to switch to Con
3) People who voted Con in 2010 but will never go back while Cameron is in charge (if ever)
4) People who voted Con in 2010 but might be persuadable.
So really this strategy will only work on group 4 and we have no way of knowing the % of ex-Tories in group 3 and group 4.
Oh, I remember now...
AV
*titters*
You need someone like Michael Foot, Neil Kinnock or Gordon Brown to do that.
Plans to force millions of private landlords to carry out immigration checks on tenants to be watered down
Plans to force millions of private landlords to vouch safe for the immigration status of their tenants are to be watered down, with the new rules only applying to certain problem areas in the country.
It is going to be limited to a "few problem boroughs in West London".
A few right-wing insurgent candidates in the US got into trouble talking about rape as well. UKIP should hire somebody to follow Farage around and let off the fire alarm if they hear anybody mention it.
I imagine Michael Ashcroft will pay for a public poll at some point (I imagine the 4 parties have already comissioned private polls on the issue).
A quick look at the various poll UKIP subsamples (yes, I know, huge error bars and pinches of salt required), Cameron seems just as unpopular as Miliband, but it looks like, at a push, UKIP voters would rather have Cameron as PM over Miliband. Doesn't really tell us much we couldn't have already guessed.
Still, the next election will be defined by tactical voting.
What's more likely is just a traditional, old-fashioned squeeze, caused by the two-party contest for PM sucking up all the media oxygen.
If they look like losing, it will be nasty.
Do you think the Tories will be learning from Labour?
Let's nuke Nigel Farage .... all in the best possible taste :
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/40196000/jpg/_40196921_everett_203.jpg
A substantive re-negotiation of the UK's deal with the EU would be very difficult for anyone---maybe impossible. Best if it were handled by a canny operator, who's heart was in it, and who was clearly prepared to walk away if he didn't get what he wanted. Cameron ticks none of those 3 boxes.
We believe that the only way to move from BOO to actually out is to have as many votes for UKIP as possible, anywhere and everywhere.
I will vote UKIP and if it lets in Labour so be it. At least then I will be able to enjoy the spectacle of wealthy Cameroons having to pay far more tax (and not before time). The tories need to suffer the same fate as their sister party in Canada to bring them to their senses. If Nadine wants me to vote for her again she will have to defect.
(Very OT-sorry)
Remember a film you were waxing lyrical about a few years ago called 'Couscous' well it seems you spotted an early talent because the director has just won the Palme d'Or at Cannes for his new film-a three hour lesbian drama-'Blue is the Warmest Colour'. (I was luke warm on Couscous and watched it again and it was much better than I remembered it.)
Wouldn't "wealthy Cameroons" pay substantially less tax under Ukip's whimsical flat rate tax of 25% ??
I'm not a Tory but it's a bit unfair on Cameron isn't it?
"Using the weeping lady at Drummer Rigby's shrine to make a political point about Cameron being on holiday is just stunningly sh*tty and cynical, as well."
I agree but it does make you wonder why Cameron chose to have that PR picture taken of him and Sam on holiday. If a PM and doesn't want to be photographed they just don't ask a photographer to photograph them.
I'm beginning to think he's an idiot.
PS.
@Jonathan
Why did you change your avatar from 'No Right Turn'? It was the smartest one on here.
Any PBer use a Samsung S4 .... review please ?
Mind you, the papers aren't the force they once were, and at least some of the diminishing minority who still read them will know a substance-free media pile-on when they see one.
I would think Cameron agreed to a few pictures to ensure the press didn't dog the rest of his break. Seems reasonable.
" You need to deploy both short term and long term measures,
In the short term there is a need to avoid catastrophic falls in house prices as have been experienced on the continent, even in the strong economies, like the Netherlands where house prices fell by 8.9% last year.
Such falls destroy bank balance sheets, depress consumer confidence and aggravate downside recessionary risks. "
The problem is your 'short term' becomes long term.
So 0.5% interest rates were meant to be 'short term', QE was meant to be 'short term' and then reversed and Osborne's sub-prime schemes are meant to be 'short term'.
And each time the market gets hooked on the new 'short term' drug and the long term situation is further damaged.
Meanwhile we're due for the next cyclical recession in 2016-7 while your still bringing in more 'short term' policies to stop the correction which should have happened after the last recession.
And there is nothing wrong with house prices falling - it helps economic and social mobility, especially among the young, and it kills the utterly malign mentality of people treating their houses as cash machines.
Lovely weather too.
Sean, are you still in one of the Luton constituencies ?
Who'd want to go into politics?
Cleethorpes is certainly a step too far !!
John O, it would be interesting to know how the other 29% splits.
It's a bit of a stretch to say Cameron lacked leadership on the gay marriage issue. He's taken a potentially very unpopular issue in his party and brought half his party and voters with him. He also allowed a free vote whereas Ed forced a whipped vote that 22 Labour MP's ignored.
"I wonder if the newspapers would be so hostile today if the Camerons had gone to Cleethorpes as I suggested."
They'd be interviewing psychiatrists
But he's also short on charisma, and voters have a hard time imaging him as PM. The Tories would be mad not to try to come up with a way to take advantage of that.
I'm truly baffled at the condescension 'High Tories' like you and Avery aim towards anyone who doesn't have the 'right' background.
"I'm truly baffled at the condescension 'High Tories' like you and Avery aim towards anyone who doesn't have the 'right' background."
You're one of the must read posters on here. I just cant understand why you're not a lefty. The site is seriously short of a fire and brimstone lefty poster.
PS. What about Morecambe?
http://www.historic-images.co.uk/wp-content/gallery/morecambe-funny-postcards/funny-comic-seaside-postcard__theres-plenty-to-see-at-morecambe-1975.jpg
On one side of the privileged metropolitan coin are the champagen socialists, on the other side the Cameroons.
All of them believing themselves above the provincial proles, all of them unable to resist sneering at those provincial proles.
Then they wonder why those provincial proles are now voting UKIP.
Unwilling to consider that their attitudes might be at fault their only answer is yet more sneering.
Hey ho PB at its funniest in successive posts.
"another_richard tags me a "High Tory" and "Alanbrooke" decides I want a Labour government !!
I haven't been described as a faux Ukipper yet but I'm sure it's out there somewhere !!
A nuke would be better placed up some peculiar/weird and slightly insane jacobites arse; and I don't mean ARSE. All in the best possible taste, of course.
There are other little jobs that one hopes will earn them gainful employment. The machinery of fine pie making certainly requires a de-sandal more frequently than I expected !!
Titters grimly ....
I've had a S3 for a little under a year. Battery life is a wee bit limited if you use extensively but that apart it's a very good phone. Is the S4 that much better ??
I recommend to you an extensive course of colonic irrigation to remove the anally retentive aspects of your postings.
Tubes ahoy !!!!!!!!!!!
Whether its national government, local government or the unions it follows the same pattern - a power mad egotist ordering the proles around while personally enriching themselves.
Nothing wrong with Morecambe but I would prefer Scarborough.
But neither place offers the SamCam personal anecdote which Cleethorpes does.
I've been mulling this matter for a while, why the SE blues and higher echelons fail to connect with a large part of their potential vote and haven't done so since 1992.
I've decided to blame Thatcher. Looking back at the 80s/90s I think it's been a score draw. The Right won the argument of economics hands down helped hugely by the competition going bust in 1989. The Left on the other has run off with the laurels on the social arguments helped by a variety of matters such as demographic change and to some extent the right not bothering to advance a counter argument.
The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices. The current CP is actually happier to risk the extra costs of a Labour government if it doesn't upset the social consensus. The problem arises when the "consensus" turns out not to be one since parts of the country aren't that happy with the social agenda proposed, hence the rise of UKIP. The problem thereafter is how the current CP can reconcile people who are economically of the right but who differ on social values ( or in some cases where the social vlaues are degrading the economics ). The leadership of the CP currently don't know how to do this and if push came to shove I suspect they'd rank the social agenda ahead of the economic one.
A fine morning here in lowland East London. I seem to remember huge panic whenever past Prime Ministers went on holiday amid concern of leaving "the Deputy" in charge. There was always much hilarity when Blair and Thatcher went on holiday as to who was "in charge" or "running the show" and I well remember the Cameroons on here seething at the very idea of Nick Clegg running the country for a week or two.
It doesn't matter - it's interesting to read Cameron's increasingly-desperate supporters asserting that the negative coverage will generate sympathy and work in his favour.
The fact is for all the frenzy over last week's events in Woolwich, life goes on. Lee Rigby will be remembered and rightly so but apart from the heat, where is the light? The test will be to see if his murder will change anything in temrs of attitudes, perceptions and actions. I fear (and this was probably the aim of those controlling the killers) that it will increase and distort the misconceptions and divisions between muslims and others and prevent dialogue and understanding.
As others have said the "crisis" has been long in its preparation - a Prime Minister having a few days holiday with his family makes no difference.
Note to TSB: I know it's a bank holiday and all that, but you must put some oomph into these threads. That sorry photo of rED is enough to drive any but the most die-hard labourite away from that party, so thread irrelevant.
"The net result is of course that we have conservative socialists and and socialist conservatives as our political choices."
Hence the rise and rise of UKIP, if only because people are fed up with the same party: Lab/Lib/Con.
Edited
"S. KOREA
"Working hours in South Korea are some of the longest in the world - it's not unusual for office workers to stay in the office until 9 o'clock at night - and nobody leaves before the boss. So when a bank holiday rolls around, there's a desperate bid to break for freedom....
Most people head to the coast or to the cool, forested mountains in the north, particularly when the bank holiday creates the chance for a long weekend. For many Koreans, this little escape is a substitute for the annual leave they don't take. The working culture here is so strong, that a day or two at a time is the most some office workers say they can afford without incurring disapproval from their senior colleagues."
United States
The average American gets less than three weeks' paid holiday a year - assuming they've got a job. So when a public holiday comes around, like Memorial Day, it is embraced with relish - relish that usually goes with along with the hot dogs, burgers and tacos at a family cookout. It's a day for getting out and doing something. And that usually means packing a lot in, seeing family and friends and making the most of the day.
Italy
A day off work in Italy. What could be better. The possibilities are endless - there's the food and the wine, and the countryside, and in this long, thin nation many people live close to the beach. And the great thing about Italian bank holidays is that they aren't tied to Mondays. They float around in the week. So if there's one on a Thursday, you might get the Friday off too, and then disappear for a very long weekend.
India
As India's economy continues to grow, lots of the youngsters around in the IT sector are working long hours, six days a week....But for hundreds of millions of Indians, a bank holiday is just another day, because they cannot afford to stop working if they want to survive. Here in the world's largest democracy, bank holidays are for the rich. For the poor they are just another day."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22655033
Perhaps the UK could copy S Korea and the USA a bit more and Italy a bit less - and I am in work today as I was yesterday.
To my mind the rise of Ukip is really quite simple and arises from the confluence of several disparate factors, amongst which are :
1. A growing disconnect between all parties and the public.
2. A continuing disconnect between voters and the EU
3. The absence of the LibDems as opposition to a Conservative government.
4. The Conservatives move to more socially liberal policies.
5. An uninspiring Labour opposition.
6. Normal mid-term blues.
7. Farage as a high profile media friendly leader.
8. Until recently little in depth scrutiny of Ukip policies.
9. Immigration as a continuing concern.
10. Open hostility of conservative press to Cameron
The campaign will play a huge part - it will be facinating to see how many people have "decided" before the first debate for example. The Conservatives need to remember that the only opponent that matters is Labour. Neither the LDs nor UKIP are that relevant in and of themselves. They will also be aware that the LD line in 2015 will be the same as 2010 - first refusal to the party with most votes.
That means that the key prerequisite is to finish ahead in the popular vote though to be fair if they are second, the chances of being able to form a majority coalition with the LDs will probably be nil and it will either be a Labour majority or as near as makes no difference.
One or two on here yesterday were suggesting the LDs could form a Coalition with Labour after 2015 - I don't see it. Labour won't want it and the LDs won't want it either.
If the 2015 result was a mirror of 2010, would the Coalition continue ? That's a far more interesting question.
As for whether this thread is "boring", I would offer two thoughts - one, make it interesting or two, go out and enjoy the day.
This is where voting systems make a big difference. With PR we'd have several niche parties, putting the case for their idea of how things ought to be, trying to change voters' attitudes and content to get say 10-15% of the vote, but with FPTP it's tempting to just pretend to agree with the drift of public sentiment on everything. Voters aren't really fooled so they irritably look round for authentic yet credible alternatives, which are in short supply.
The mantra the voters will come back seems very complacent imo. As someone who's voted blue for most of my adult life I won't at the next GE since I can't see the point. What do the blues offer someone in the Midlands, the North or in Scotland ? There appears very little of note in the conservative debate to engage these parts of the country, therein lies part of the "disconnect" between the current CP and its potential supporters. Have the Conservatives have become a bunch of lazy sods who can't be bothered chasing votes or have they disconnected with the real world to the point where they have no ideas on moving the whole of the country forward ? Whatever it is the lack of dynamism is no better than Ed's lack of policy and decerves to get its rewards at the ballot box.
I see nothing it still happening this weekend in the finest BHols tradition.
On that note - anyone seen Warehouse 13? I've just started and it looks promising. Eureka was pretty good but by S5 it was getting itself in the usual knots re resurrected characters.
Re Cameron's holiday - what a fuss about nothing again. I feel rather sorry for him which clearly wasn't the reaction the Mail or DT wanted to generate.
Much depends on what you mean by "southern regionalist party" Are we talking south of the Trent or south of Hadrian's Wall ?
Much might be said of Labour - urban and Northern ??
....................................................
Anyway .... lovely day, Mrs Jack W and I are going to meander around rural Hertfordshire and have a long pub lunch !!
Enjoy the day PBers ....
Toddles ....
"Whether its national government, local government or the unions it follows the same pattern - a power mad egotist ordering the proles around while personally enriching themselves"
So this has persuaded you that the answer is Nigel Farage who exploits a primeval fear of foreigners to frighten the old and uneducated?