Oh no! I was really hoping we'd get a run of Tory poll leads to finally shake Labour out of their complacency before it's too late. Now they're going to go back to reassuring themselves that all is fine...
Expectations management with turncoat carswell merely 32% ahead of the tories in the Lord A poll (56% vs 24%), what is a 'romping' majority and what is a closer than expected majority in %age terms?
Thinking how that might affect the Rochester BIGGIE rumble on betfair.
Still think we shan't really know where we are for a couple more weeks.
Weird thing is the very low aggregate LabCon score.
Possibly could become commonplace if Lab continue to say and do nothing and the Tories try to con the electorate with their bizarre 'deficit amnesia' strategy.
Again, the most frustrating thing is that the Tories' poll ratings are actually still thoroughly mediocre. Have they even gone above 35% in any of the recent polls? Even after everything, Labour are STILL in with a shot if they could just get their bloody act together and pull back the voters they've lost to the Greens, UKIP and the SNP in recent months due to sheer complacency (the belief that the so-called "core vote" has nowhere else to go).
Electoral calculus has Labour as 15 seats short in the UK. Where would they be in England?
I think Electoral Calculus gives you a list of the seats that change hands, so you can work it out from the 2010 result and that.
Also you reversed the Labour and Conservative poll shares when you put them into Electoral Calculus. With a 34-32 lead Labour have a UK majority of 24.
Electoral calculus has Labour as 15 seats short in the UK. Where would they be in England?
As it's a UK wide election your question is academic
In terms of unfairness though, it could matter. It's quite possible us English get lumbered with a Labour minister in charge of English education on the back of Scottish and Welsh votes. that would be very wrong.
Well I wouldn't expect an unreconstructed socialist neanderthal like yourself to understand phrases like the 'objectification of women' but Mrs Danczuk is seriously letting the sisterhood down particularly when the party has been making an issue out of it.
Street-Porter said she felt "ashamed" that Danczuk believed she could be a role model to girls in Rochdale as well as "getting your assets out on a Friday night and posting a picture"
That this House believes that the Daily Mail's coverage of the promotion of women to the Cabinet hits an all time low in terms of media sexism; further believes that women MPs across the political spectrum should be judged on their intelligence, expertise, track record, policies and skills rather than on their hair styles, body shape or where they buy their clothes; deplores the constant objectification and sexualisation of women by the media; and calls on the newly-appointed Equalities Minister to start an urgent dialogue with the industry to tackle the cumulative and discriminatory effect of media sexism, including training on how fairly to portray women and working with experts on equality and gendered violence to develop understanding of the impact of such coverage.
Ed also said that he didn’t want his sons growing up in a country where they are given the ‘perception’ that women and girls are sex objects.
The objectification of women on Page 3 reinforces this false perception of what it is to be female, daily.
Finally, he called Page 3 ‘a total anachronism’ that doesn’t have a place in the modern world. We wish we could argue that it has never had a place, but unfortunately, the 70s was a very sexist era.
This is Labour's fourth sub-35 score in a row with YouGov. That's the first time that's happened since June 2010 (in fact, the first five YouGovs of the parliament had Labour sub-35; there's not been a run of four or more in a row since).
Still think we shan't really know where we are for a couple more weeks.
Weird thing is the very low aggregate LabCon score.
Possibly could become commonplace if Lab continue to say and do nothing and the Tories try to con the electorate with their bizarre 'deficit amnesia' strategy.
Still think we shan't really know where we are for a couple more weeks.
Weird thing is the very low aggregate LabCon score.
Possibly could become commonplace if Lab continue to say and do nothing and the Tories try to con the electorate with their bizarre 'deficit amnesia' strategy.
25 years ago, most people either watched BBC or ITV, shopped at either Sainsburys or Tesco etc etc
Times have changed, people shop around more for everything, the internet means old brand loyalties are no longer relevant. Politics is the same. The two main parties get less votes than ever before, its been the trend for decades, as people either do not vote, or vote for smaller parties
Electoral calculus has Labour as 15 seats short in the UK. Where would they be in England?
As it's a UK wide election your question is academic
In terms of unfairness though, it could matter. It's quite possible us English get lumbered with a Labour minister in charge of English education on the back of Scottish and Welsh votes. that would be very wrong.
Presumably equally as interested in seats excluding London given devolution of issues such as transport and their ability to vote on northern cities transport issues?
Electoral calculus has Labour as 15 seats short in the UK. Where would they be in England?
15 seats short means 310. Gain of 52 seats. Since Labour is expected to lose 12 - 15 seats in Scotland, this means gains of 64 - 67 in E & W. So, about 60 gains in England.
Electoral calculus has Labour as 15 seats short in the UK. Where would they be in England?
As it's a UK wide election your question is academic
In terms of unfairness though, it could matter. It's quite possible us English get lumbered with a Labour minister in charge of English education on the back of Scottish and Welsh votes. that would be very wrong.
My guess is it would be 'very wrong' for a London MP to vote on transport issues affecting northern cities?
After the Rockeller family decision to divest their complete portfolio from oil,Apache oil are now getting out of the North Sea.I humbly suggest the financial projections from some Scottish politicians as to the income from North Sea oil is highly optimistic.I think the Severn Barrage is worth another look-could get 10% of country's energy needs.
I make it 259 Labour seats in England on this poll in Electoral Calculus. That means they would have a UK majority of 24, but be 8 seats short of a majority in England alone.
Out of curiosity, why do you persist in typing these words since they're patently untrue.
We can't *pay down the debt* until we kill off the deficit Labour left behind.
Right now we're spending 5 weeks wages every month. We need to be spending less than a month's wages to even start to nibble away at the national debt.
You know this, we all know this on here. Why make yourself look financially illiterate when it's untrue?
Well I wouldn't expect an unreconstructed socialist neanderthal like yourself to understand phrases like the 'objectification of women' but Mrs Danczuk is seriously letting the sisterhood down particularly when the party has been making an issue out of it.
Street-Porter said she felt "ashamed" that Danczuk believed she could be a role model to girls in Rochdale as well as "getting your assets out on a Friday night and posting a picture"
That this House believes that the Daily Mail's coverage of the promotion of women to the Cabinet hits an all time low in terms of media sexism; further believes that women MPs across the political spectrum should be judged on their intelligence, expertise, track record, policies and skills rather than on their hair styles, body shape or where they buy their clothes; deplores the constant objectification and sexualisation of women by the media; and calls on the newly-appointed Equalities Minister to start an urgent dialogue with the industry to tackle the cumulative and discriminatory effect of media sexism, including training on how fairly to portray women and working with experts on equality and gendered violence to develop understanding of the impact of such coverage.
Ed also said that he didn’t want his sons growing up in a country where they are given the ‘perception’ that women and girls are sex objects.
The objectification of women on Page 3 reinforces this false perception of what it is to be female, daily.
Finally, he called Page 3 ‘a total anachronism’ that doesn’t have a place in the modern world. We wish we could argue that it has never had a place, but unfortunately, the 70s was a very sexist era.
Tories will be ok with Lab micro-poll recovery. Have shown what happens when spotlight falls on Ed/Cam contrast. Glimpse of GE campaign ..
More that Ed did a very flat speech and Cam a good one with unfunded tax cuts that hoodwinked the rightwing press for a while. Just like last year when Ed did a good speech and Dave a bad one. These things ebb and flow I guess
Out of curiosity, why do you persist in typing these words since they're patently untrue.
We can't *pay down the debt* until we kill off the deficit Labour left behind.
Right now we're spending 5 weeks wages every month. We need to be spending less than a month's wages to even start to nibble away at the national debt.
You know this, we all know this on here. Why make yourself look financially illiterate when it's untrue?
Electoral calculus has Labour as 15 seats short in the UK. Where would they be in England?
As it's a UK wide election your question is academic
In terms of unfairness though, it could matter. It's quite possible us English get lumbered with a Labour minister in charge of English education on the back of Scottish and Welsh votes. that would be very wrong.
Similar things happen in London and NI, yet we see and hear little about that.
It wasn't that long ago that people were posting, "lead solid at 7 (etc), nothing to see here".
2 points. 33-34%=the new "core". Seven months to go.
lies over "paying down the debt".
Are they really pushing that line very hard? I don't recall seeing it for awhile.
That very line was uttered by Cam in his speech
Well i didn't listen to the whole thing - did he say they were paying it down right now, or that they would be/intended to? Only the former would be untrue.
Electoral calculus has Labour as 15 seats short in the UK. Where would they be in England?
Take your glasses off. EC says Labour majority of 24 ! Did you put the UKIP score in the calculations ?
Nobody reads my posts.
As I pointed out below, Socrates simply transposed the Labour and Conservative poll shares. A simple mistake that all of us will have made from time to time.
Out of curiosity, why do you persist in typing these words since they're patently untrue.
We can't *pay down the debt* until we kill off the deficit Labour left behind.
Right now we're spending 5 weeks wages every month. We need to be spending less than a month's wages to even start to nibble away at the national debt.
You know this, we all know this on here. Why make yourself look financially illiterate when it's untrue?
Yougov darting around all over the place at the moment, but Labour's score exactly the same as when Tories led on Friday, just UKIP vote slightly higher
Is debt going down as standard measure - percentage of GDP? And arn't there assets which are improving in the calculation?
Not yet declining as a percentage of GDP, though that will happen before the absolute level of debt starts to decline.
I believe that assets are very rarely taken into account when assessing the debt level of a country.
Perhaps Cameron "misspoke" in a similar way to Miliband "forgetting", but he has managed to misspeak in exactly the same way before, so it looks like he is trying to be misleading.
@Markfergusonuk: Worst possible thing Labour could do now is say “We’re back ahead with YouGov, everything is fine”. Because that’s clearly not the case.
Out of curiosity, why do you persist in typing these words since they're patently untrue.
We can't *pay down the debt* until we kill off the deficit Labour left behind.
Right now we're spending 5 weeks wages every month. We need to be spending less than a month's wages to even start to nibble away at the national debt.
You know this, we all know this on here. Why make yourself look financially illiterate when it's untrue?
The question is - how much is the structural deficit? How much do we need of "structural growth" to cover it - less than we are growing at the moment I believe.
We need to fix 3.5% of Goverment spending, even if we don't structurally grow surely the Civil Service can make 1% efficiency gains a year. What say the lefties here - is it absolutely impossible to do this? When private industry does so much more?
"The Gay Blitzkrieg, not only do the Kippers blame the gayers for the weather, they get blamed for Tsunamis as well"
As I have said many times on here before TSE, as long as Tories like you are willing to support a party that has elected officials in it like Ken "with a bit of luck you'll get Aids" Gregory you are in no position to criticise other parties who also have lunatics supporting them.
And there is a the difference for you. Alan Craig is just a member (although I wish he were not). Ken Gregory is STILL an elected Conservative councillor years after he was given a police caution for his offensive homophobic phone calls.
Put bluntly you, like so many other Tories, are a hypocrite.
Fair enough. Seems fairly irrelevant though. Cameron's government has massively failed on its promises to eliminate the deficit, which I wanted, but then again Labour never promised to do it at the pace I wanted in the first place, and whoever gets in will no doubt take the full five years to do it next time, so on this, at least, the two parties are the same with only cosmetic differences, so my disappointment at Cameron's failure - I believe it was the official announcement they would be extending austerity to 2018 which prompted me to stop giving the government an easy ride - is tempered by knowing it didn't make any real difference.
OblitusSumMe - I think the bank support is in the debt, and as the bank share price improves?
Well that is why most people look at the level of debt excluding financial interventions as the primary measure of debt. So I'm afraid you can't wriggle Cameron out of it so easily in that way.
He's been officially reprimanded for this deception by the head of the Statistics Agency. Just because Labour politicians are as bad or worse when it comes to this sort of thing doesn't mean you should let him off the hook about it.
I've had a word search of Cameron's speech to conference and the word *debt* appears twice. Once in praise of William Hague and once in ref to the debt left by Labour.
Deficit appears 5x. Cutting the deficit was essential x2; Miliband not mentioning it; Labour's legacy as the biggest since WW2 and what will happen if Labour get back in.
I think some on here are indulging in wishful thinking that Cameron claimed anywhere in his speech that he was lying about *paying down the debt*.
kle4 Spending has fallen from 47% in 2010 to 44% now, the target is for 38% in 2018, the same percentage the government takes in tax, and for there then to be a surplus
"The Gay Blitzkrieg, not only do the Kippers blame the gayers for the weather, they get blamed for Tsunamis as well"
As I have said many times on here before TSE, as long as Tories like you are willing to support a party that has elected officials in it like Ken "with a bit of luck you'll get Aids" Gregory you are in no position to criticise other parties who also have lunatics supporting them.
And there is a the difference for you. Alan Craig is just a member (although I wish he were not). Ken Gregory is STILL an elected Conservative councillor years after he was given a police caution for his offensive homophobic phone calls.
Put bluntly you, like so many other Tories, are a hypocrite.
No Richard. I've said many times, all parties have racists, loons, fruitcakes and homophobes, including my own. For example the gay marriage causes floods chap was very recently an active member of the Tory party.
The councillor you mention should be sacked at the very minimum. Once I've finished writing the morning thread I'll email/tweet CCHQ and ask why he is still in the party.
I know there are many kippers (including your good self) who like me wince when our party members come out with rubbish like this.
My main objection to this chap is his poor knowledge of history.
Considering what the Nazis did to the Gays, Gaystappo is so many kinds of wrong.
I've had a word search of Cameron's speech to conference and the word *debt* appears twice. Once in praise of William Hague and once in ref to the debt left by Labour.
Deficit appears 5x. Cutting the deficit was essential x2; Miliband not mentioning it; Labour's legacy as the biggest since WW2 and what will happen if Labour get back in.
I think some on here are indulging in wishful thinking that Cameron claimed anywhere in his speech that he was lying about *paying down the debt*.
Ok, so the Norovirus has been identified 10 weeks prior to last year, the Flu virus has been particularly virulent in the southern hemisphere, an indication of it's attack in the northern during winter (why all the ad's to get your injections (and nasal sprays for the kiddies) Do It Now People!).
Plus Ebola and it's variants on the loose. Have your own nightmares on that.
If the winter is cold, with the atomic and coal powered stations off line - and, please, do not give me the s**t about wind power, during the last freeze a couple of years ago, there was no wind, - then the Conservative/LibDem members will be filling their places of worship and wearing out their knee pads praying for deliverance.
Norovirus: I caught a mild variant 2 years ago. Out of action for 2 weeks and lost 2 stone in weight. As a weight loss treatment, not recommended.
Well I wouldn't expect an unreconstructed socialist neanderthal like yourself to understand phrases like the 'objectification of women' but Mrs Danczuk is seriously letting the sisterhood down particularly when the party has been making an issue out of it.
Street-Porter said she felt "ashamed" that Danczuk believed she could be a role model to girls in Rochdale as well as "getting your assets out on a Friday night and posting a picture"
Ed also said that he didn’t want his sons growing up in a country where they are given the ‘perception’ that women and girls are sex objects.
The objectification of women on Page 3 reinforces this false perception of what it is to be female, daily.
Finally, he called Page 3 ‘a total anachronism’ that doesn’t have a place in the modern world. We wish we could argue that it has never had a place, but unfortunately, the 70s was a very sexist era.
Personally I don't give a toss but I'm sure there will be some unhappy campers in the red camp
She appears to have taken photos of herself wearing clothes. What's your point?
Well if you are going to be that obtuse about it, I'm not sure I can be bothered because its your party's political crassness she is crapping all over.
Suffice to say sexual objectification doesn't differentiate on the basis of who is the originator nor is it predicated necessarily on whether someone is naked or not.
Of course from a political perspective given the nearby by-election in Heywood, the type of issues involved and the wider criticism of the Labour party over those issues it's not smart for this to come out (presumably such a flare up will make the local papers).
More importantly if I was to make a serious observation it is that I think she's daft to do it because you never know what sort of idiot weirdos are hanging about on Twitter and other social media sites! She could attract unwanted attention and I don't mean just from Janet Street-Porter,.......
kle4 Spending has fallen from 47% in 2010 to 44% now, the target is for 38% in 2018, the same percentage the government takes in tax, and for there then to be a surplus
I'm not saying they've achieved nothing - though I am certain the pace of austerity will be slowed come the next parliament, as with the economy growing people will not care as much about who can look the toughest and will be more sympathetic to those opposed to any cuts at all - although given how far behind their own initial targets they are, they cannot expect too much credit either. If you are aiming for say, 100, then do really poorly and revise that to, say, 50, you cannot expect total praise when you then hit 75.
I know that's a basic approach to take for complex financial matters, but my notoriously unreliable gut says that most people expect a good economy so when that is achieved they may not reward who is in power as it is just doing the bare minimum, and in any case they may, rightly or wrongly, not recognise the government as being responsible in any way for that improvement, particularly when downturns and not meeting targets is always blamed on global and outside factors and took so long that things seemed bound to pick up eventually.
Comments
TSE got style.
We have crossover etc etc.
pretty poor score for both big parties though
Still think we shan't really know where we are for a couple more weeks.
What exactly has Cllr Karen Dansuck done wrong?
Expectations management with turncoat carswell merely 32% ahead of the tories in the Lord A poll (56% vs 24%), what is a 'romping' majority and what is a closer than expected majority in %age terms?
Thinking how that might affect the Rochester BIGGIE rumble on betfair.
Possibly could become commonplace if Lab continue to say and do nothing and the Tories try to con the electorate with their bizarre 'deficit amnesia' strategy.
2 points. 33-34%=the new "core". Seven months to go.
Also you reversed the Labour and Conservative poll shares when you put them into Electoral Calculus. With a 34-32 lead Labour have a UK majority of 24.
35% is the winner. Every one who has done it has been PM.
Hardly surprising given Labour's silence on everything and the Tories' shambolic deficit amnesia and lies over "paying down the debt".
Street-Porter said she felt "ashamed" that Danczuk believed she could be a role model to girls in Rochdale as well as "getting your assets out on a Friday night and posting a picture"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11146771/Labour-MPs-wife-Karen-Danczuk-embroiled-in-Loose-Women-row-over-cleavage-selfies.html
That this House believes that the Daily Mail's coverage of the promotion of women to the Cabinet hits an all time low in terms of media sexism; further believes that women MPs across the political spectrum should be judged on their intelligence, expertise, track record, policies and skills rather than on their hair styles, body shape or where they buy their clothes; deplores the constant objectification and sexualisation of women by the media; and calls on the newly-appointed Equalities Minister to start an urgent dialogue with the industry to tackle the cumulative and discriminatory effect of media sexism, including training on how fairly to portray women and working with experts on equality and gendered violence to develop understanding of the impact of such coverage.
http://www.parliament.uk/edm/2014-15/264
Ed also said that he didn’t want his sons growing up in a country where they are given the ‘perception’ that women and girls are sex objects.
The objectification of women on Page 3 reinforces this false perception of what it is to be female, daily.
Finally, he called Page 3 ‘a total anachronism’ that doesn’t have a place in the modern world. We wish we could argue that it has never had a place, but unfortunately, the 70s was a very sexist era.
http://metro.co.uk/2013/09/25/ed-miliband-calls-for-no-more-page-3-4111307/
Personally I don't give a toss but I'm sure there will be some unhappy campers in the red camp
Times have changed, people shop around more for everything, the internet means old brand loyalties are no longer relevant. Politics is the same. The two main parties get less votes than ever before, its been the trend for decades, as people either do not vote, or vote for smaller parties
Tories will be ok with Lab micro-poll recovery. Have shown what happens when spotlight falls on Ed/Cam contrast. Glimpse of GE campaign ..
Word count 283
Admittedly this post would have looked more impressive if it was a little bit higher.
Right-wingers on here writing the New Statesman and/or the Guardian by accident. Hmm.
We can't *pay down the debt* until we kill off the deficit Labour left behind.
Right now we're spending 5 weeks wages every month. We need to be spending less than a month's wages to even start to nibble away at the national debt.
You know this, we all know this on here. Why make yourself look financially illiterate when it's untrue?
It's not fooling anyone.
(Edited because I added an E - Lol)
She appears to have taken photos of herself wearing clothes. What's your point?
As I pointed out below, Socrates simply transposed the Labour and Conservative poll shares. A simple mistake that all of us will have made from time to time.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-criticised-dodgy-debt-4374387
According to that link I posted, he made the same mistake previously, and this time he was using notes?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-criticised-dodgy-debt-4374387
I believe that assets are very rarely taken into account when assessing the debt level of a country.
Perhaps Cameron "misspoke" in a similar way to Miliband "forgetting", but he has managed to misspeak in exactly the same way before, so it looks like he is trying to be misleading.
We need to fix 3.5% of Goverment spending, even if we don't structurally grow surely the Civil Service can make 1% efficiency gains a year. What say the lefties here - is it absolutely impossible to do this? When private industry does so much more?
TheScreamingEagles said:
"The Gay Blitzkrieg, not only do the Kippers blame the gayers for the weather, they get blamed for Tsunamis as well"
As I have said many times on here before TSE, as long as Tories like you are willing to support a party that has elected officials in it like Ken "with a bit of luck you'll get Aids" Gregory you are in no position to criticise other parties who also have lunatics supporting them.
And there is a the difference for you. Alan Craig is just a member (although I wish he were not). Ken Gregory is STILL an elected Conservative councillor years after he was given a police caution for his offensive homophobic phone calls.
Put bluntly you, like so many other Tories, are a hypocrite.
He's been officially reprimanded for this deception by the head of the Statistics Agency. Just because Labour politicians are as bad or worse when it comes to this sort of thing doesn't mean you should let him off the hook about it.
Deficit appears 5x. Cutting the deficit was essential x2; Miliband not mentioning it; Labour's legacy as the biggest since WW2 and what will happen if Labour get back in.
I think some on here are indulging in wishful thinking that Cameron claimed anywhere in his speech that he was lying about *paying down the debt*.
Here it is > blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/10/david-camerons-speech-to-the-conservative-conference-full-text/
The councillor you mention should be sacked at the very minimum. Once I've finished writing the morning thread I'll email/tweet CCHQ and ask why he is still in the party.
I know there are many kippers (including your good self) who like me wince when our party members come out with rubbish like this.
My main objection to this chap is his poor knowledge of history.
Considering what the Nazis did to the Gays, Gaystappo is so many kinds of wrong.
Plus Ebola and it's variants on the loose. Have your own nightmares on that.
If the winter is cold, with the atomic and coal powered stations off line - and, please, do not give me the s**t about wind power, during the last freeze a couple of years ago, there was no wind, - then the Conservative/LibDem members will be filling their places of worship and wearing out their knee pads praying for deliverance.
Norovirus: I caught a mild variant 2 years ago. Out of action for 2 weeks and lost 2 stone in weight. As a weight loss treatment, not recommended.
Suffice to say sexual objectification doesn't differentiate on the basis of who is the originator nor is it predicated necessarily on whether someone is naked or not.
Of course from a political perspective given the nearby by-election in Heywood, the type of issues involved and the wider criticism of the Labour party over those issues it's not smart for this to come out (presumably such a flare up will make the local papers).
More importantly if I was to make a serious observation it is that I think she's daft to do it because you never know what sort of idiot weirdos are hanging about on Twitter and other social media sites! She could attract unwanted attention and I don't mean just from Janet Street-Porter,.......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rHJPLuG4OM
"We're making Britain proud again...
Not just a country that is paying down its debts and going from the deepest recession since the war to the fastest growing economy."
Wrong. Dead wrong. A lie? Or a mistake he keeps making?
You decide.
I know that's a basic approach to take for complex financial matters, but my notoriously unreliable gut says that most people expect a good economy so when that is achieved they may not reward who is in power as it is just doing the bare minimum, and in any case they may, rightly or wrongly, not recognise the government as being responsible in any way for that improvement, particularly when downturns and not meeting targets is always blamed on global and outside factors and took so long that things seemed bound to pick up eventually.