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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Voters think Lib Dems will fade away within ten years but UKIP is here to stay

I suspect the current Westminster VI polling is driving this, as the Lord Ashcroft marginal polls showed, the Lib Dems are doing better than national polling suggests, more so than normal, the next election will be about seats won, rather than the national share of the vote.

Read the full story here

OblitusSumMe

First - somewhere not to expect to see the Lib Dems in national politics for some time to come.

state_go_away

Most people have a view on Scottish independence or how they will vote in a GE. The vast majority of people have never thought about the long term future of the lib dems so why ask a question like this? It means nothing .

JBriskin

Those bus passes aren't going to look after themselves...

Scott_P

@DPJHodges: Told Alan Johnson would be prepared to stand for a "coronation" but not interested in fighting a contested leadership election.

@MShapland: Alan Johnson could kill Cameron and pose huge risk to Lib Dems. Good job the chances of Ed Miliband not being leader in 2015 minimal

state_go_away

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Told Alan Johnson would be prepared to stand for a "coronation" but not interested in fighting a contested leadership election.

@MShapland: Alan Johnson could kill Cameron and pose huge risk to Lib Dems. Good job the chances of Ed Miliband not being leader in 2015 minimal

ermm not sure a lack of fight is a good quality for a possible PM

OblitusSumMe

Historically the Lib Dems have struggled to gain attention in mid-term, as the second and smaller party of opposition. If there's a single party of government after 2015 then that situation will only be more difficult for them, as they'll also have to compete with UKIP for media time.

OldKingCole

Trouble is, we have the Scots position in front of us. So far, and it’s very early days even thpough they’ve lost the referendum, the SNP isn’t going away. When ther 2017 referendum is over, and we’ve voted 60:40 to stay we’re still going have a disgruntled rump wanting to run the thing again in 5 years time.
Trouble is, that’s going to poison our relationship with our other partners. Just like the fall-out from the Indyref is breaking all sorts of eggs in UK.

However the leadership of the SNP looks a good deal more competent (and probably telegenic) than that of UKIP!

Cyclefree

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Told Alan Johnson would be prepared to stand for a "coronation" but not interested in fighting a contested leadership election.

@MShapland: Alan Johnson could kill Cameron and pose huge risk to Lib Dems. Good job the chances of Ed Miliband not being leader in 2015 minimal

What is it with Labour people wanting to be crowned leader?

At least EdM had the guts to stand for election.

Sunil_Prasannan

The LibDems: a Warning from History.

Narrated by Sam West.

Episode 1:
2010 - Helped into Power.

TheWatcher

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Told Alan Johnson would be prepared to stand for a "coronation" but not interested in fighting a contested leadership election.

@MShapland: Alan Johnson could kill Cameron and pose huge risk to Lib Dems. Good job the chances of Ed Miliband not being leader in 2015 minimal

Nothing to see here, move along. Postie and Andy Stafford on manoeuvres.

Do Labour really think that the electorate will go for a potentially dividing party, with only 5 months before a GE?

TCPoliticalBetting

Re: Main article on Lib Dems

Is OGH on holiday?

Innocent face.

TCPoliticalBetting

OblitusSumMe said:

Historically the Lib Dems have struggled to gain attention in mid-term, as the second and smaller party of opposition. If there's a single party of government after 2015 then that situation will only be more difficult for them, as they'll also have to compete with UKIP for media time.

... and with the Greens and UKIP there are other NOTA parties for protest votes.

In opposition if the LDs have half the seats and half the votes than 2005 they will have presumably half the Short money?

Fenman

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

JBriskin

What is it with Yanks and deflation paranoia????

Federal executive sounding a bit Stasi - as if we didn't already know...

rottenborough

Sadly the voting public have little or no idea of political history. Its beyond ludicrous to say LibDems won't be a force in ten years. I guess it might depend on what you mean by force, but they might well be holding the balance of power for another five years.

I can see them doing some kind of major rebrand - New Liberal anyone?

Morris_Dancer

Would Cooper-Balls let someone else take the hot seat, bearing in mind what happened when Davis let Howard do it?

And hasn't Johnson said he isn't up to the job of being PM, as well as buggering up the GP contracts and having no clue on the economy?

He is more likeable than Ed Miliband. But this is nonsense. They should've axed Miliband a couple of years ago, wibbling about it now only destabilises Labour further.

JBriskin

Quite Morris - apparently ld conf not interesting enough for the journos...And if you believe that...

dr_spyn

"UKIP want to prioritise social housing for people whose parents and grandparents were born locally." How very Aryan.

OblitusSumMe

TCPoliticalBetting said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Historically the Lib Dems have struggled to gain attention in mid-term, as the second and smaller party of opposition. If there's a single party of government after 2015 then that situation will only be more difficult for them, as they'll also have to compete with UKIP for media time.

... and with the Greens and UKIP there are other NOTA parties for protest votes.

In opposition if the LDs have half the seats and half the votes than 2005 they will have presumably half the Short money?

The Wikipedia article on Short money looks fairly comprehensive.

Eligible parties receive £14,015 per seat and just shy of 14p per vote. The minimum qualification is two seats, or one seat and 150,000 votes.

Morris_Dancer

F1: update on Bianchi:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29521187

He's got a diffuse axonal injury, which is (unsurprisingly) tremendously serious.

Richard_Tyndall

Fenman said:

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

I wonder which party best represents bigoted fools like you? Certainly none that believe in the basic principles of democracy.

rottenborough

TheWatcher said:

Scott_P said:

@DPJHodges: Told Alan Johnson would be prepared to stand for a "coronation" but not interested in fighting a contested leadership election.

@MShapland: Alan Johnson could kill Cameron and pose huge risk to Lib Dems. Good job the chances of Ed Miliband not being leader in 2015 minimal

Nothing to see here, move along. Postie and Andy Stafford on manoeuvres.

Do Labour really think that the electorate will go for a potentially dividing party, with only 5 months before a GE?

Now the tidal waters are starting to move. Could it really happen? How much do they want to win? Only oddity is Johnson has said in the past he feels he's not up to top job.

JBriskin

Lol at 50:50 t-shirt.

I should have a 20:20 one.

Or maybe 37.5

Badda badda bing - one for the boys.

Scott_P

Ed is F*u*ked now...

@GeorgeFoulkes: The more vicious the attacks by the Tories on Ed Miliband the more I admire him,believe he is on right track and will be great PM

AndyJS

The fact that Alan Johnson isn't leader would be driving me mad if I were a Labour supporter.

OblitusSumMe

Morris_Dancer said:

They should've axed Miliband a couple of years ago, wibbling about it now only destabilises Labour further.

A couple of years ago Labour were polling comfortably in the 40s, 10 points clear of the Conservatives, and UKIP were pulling level with the Lib Dems in the opinion polls.

Changing leader then would have been daft.

Maybe this is as good as Labour could possibly have done. All the alternatives might have been worse.

Richard_Tyndall

And having dealt with the moronic Fenman, to respond to the thread header.

I would certainly hope that UKIP were not around in 10 years - at least not in anything resembling their current form. If they were then it would mean they had probably failed in their primary purpose of getting us out of the EU. If they had achieved that aim then I would see little purpose in their continued existence unless they had become a truly Libertarian party - something which I feel is unfortunately very unlikely.

OblitusSumMe

Richard_Tyndall said:

And having dealt with the moronic Fenman, to respond to the thread header.

I would certainly hope that UKIP were not around in 10 years - at least not in anything resembling their current form. If they were then it would mean they had probably failed in their primary purpose of getting us out of the EU. If they had achieved that aim then I would see little purpose in their continued existence unless they had become a truly Libertarian party - something which I feel is unfortunately very unlikely.

Suppose the UK left the EU tomorrow. Which of the current parties would you be most likely to support?

stodge

Afternoon all

Well, as an LD, you'll forgive me for not agreeing with the premise of this. Indeed, I think it's far more likely UKIP will have disappeared (or merged with the Conservatives) by 2025. After all, IF Cameron gets his referendum on EU membership and wins, whither UKIP ?

If the Referendum happens and we vote to leave, whither UKIP ? As others have speculated, it remains in Nigel Farage's interest were there not to be a referendum anytime soon so the best result for Farage is anything other than a Conservative majority so you can see the tactics of that.

In truth, the Party survived the 1950s and the disaster of the 1970 election well enough though barely. It won't disappear - yes, it may be on the margins for a while but it will always be there to pick up Council seats and the odd by-election.

manofkent2014

Fenman said:

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

Its not UKIP who favour an immigration policy that requires people from Africa, Asia and The Americas amongst others to meet different standards of entry and restricts their entry whilst Europeans have no such standards and restrictions.

The more the establishment squeals about such matters the more their own hypocrisy and double standards will be exposed.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Me, perhaps, but there have always been widespread criticism of Miliband on both style and substance. Mind you, Labour members and MPs didn't want him anyway.

Mr. Tyndall, 10 years? I'd also like us to leave in that time, but if that's your schedule then backing UKIP at the next election is madder than a gekko on rollerblades. The time it'd take for UKIP to either get into a Lib Dem kingmaker position, let alone usurp the Conservatives, will be far longer.

Theuniondivvie

Poor old Libdems, they kinda remind me of cyclists uniting all other road users (pedestrians, bikers, car drivers, bus drivers, cabbies, HGV drivers) in hatred & contempt for them.

I cycle and have voted Libdem once, so this is not entirely a statement of brute prejudice.

JosiasJessop

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: update on Bianchi:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29521187

He's got a diffuse axonal injury, which is (unsurprisingly) tremendously serious.

Gary Hartstein (ex-F1 doctor) has more info here on the type of injury:
http://formerf1doc.wordpress.com/2014/10/07/diffuse-axonal-injury/

It doesn't look good for Bianchi, sadly.

Richard_Tyndall

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

And having dealt with the moronic Fenman, to respond to the thread header.

I would certainly hope that UKIP were not around in 10 years - at least not in anything resembling their current form. If they were then it would mean they had probably failed in their primary purpose of getting us out of the EU. If they had achieved that aim then I would see little purpose in their continued existence unless they had become a truly Libertarian party - something which I feel is unfortunately very unlikely.

Suppose the UK left the EU tomorrow. Which of the current parties would you be most likely to support?

It would depend on how UKIP developed. If they followed the Carswell route I would probably stick with them for at least a while but if, as seems most likely they followed the path if simply becoming just another party putting power before principles then I would revert to my normal practice of voting based entirely upon the calibre of the local candidates.

JBriskin

I kind of like cyclists. #weirdo

Note - this post is 100% valid

Scott_P

@tnewtondunn: Tory tactics re #LDConf are interesting: while Libs bash Tories whenever possible this week and last, to a man Tories remain rigidly mute.

nigel4england

Fenman said:

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

If UKIP really were racist and homophobic they would get the Muslim vote.

manofkent2014

On topic I tend to agree with others regarding UKIP. Once it has succeeded in its primary objective (the withdrawal from the EU which would be a watershed in UK politics) then it would by default lose much if its original distinctiveness and would end up covering much of the same territory as the other parties. However if it continues to extend that original distinctiveness into being a party of full blown decentralism then it may well find itself a niche in the British political spectrum which the establishment parties don't really want to tread. If they can master decentralism they could be around in British politics for a very long time.

Roger

FPT.
"Turkey is sowing the wind but will reap the whirlwind."

There seems to be little understanding on here of Turkey's attitude to the Kurds. They were terrorized by these people over a twenty year period and they'll tell you their brutality was on a par with ISIS.

It's reckoned that the Kurds under Ocalan were responsible for at least 40,000 Turkish deaths.

Asking them to aide the Kurds for the common good is just a non starter.

I was working in Istanbul in the late 90's and after the job my client invited me for dinner with his family.

He told me that his son had been a conscript in the army (as all Turks were obliged to be) and had returned with severe psychological problems. He had the severest shakes I've ever seen and though he could speak English he was all over the place.

The father explained that he had been posted to one of the border towns with a large Kurdish population and during the day they went about their business and at night killed as many Turkish soldiers as they could find.

The young soldiers returned nervous wrecks. Some were so disturbed they killed themselves and his son had been under a psychiatrist for over a year. His father was visibly distraught in the presence of his son.

I find it very difficult to see these plucky Kurds in the same way as others do.

OldKingCole

Could LibDems drop the socialist lite former SDP and reunite with the Liberal Party.

Although IIRC the latter is against the EU!

Scott_P

LD 2010 voters will vote Labour, letting EdM win.

Wait, what? Oh...

Never mind.

@MSmithsonPB: If strong LD incumbency defences prevent CON from taking 10+ seats in defiance of swing then LAB could lead on seats even though 4% behind

Alanbrooke

So now Leeds, Manchester and Middlesborough are facing up to grooming gangs.

Neil

Roger said:

I find it very difficult to see these plucky Kurds in the same way as others do.

One man's terrorist, Roger.

JBriskin

Lol - glad your on the same page as me Scott P

manofkent2014

As for the Libdems I think if they attempt to rigidly adhere to the centreground they are going to find their existence extremely difficult for the simple reason is that there is little narrative from being centrist. There is no underlying political ideology to adopting the centre ground. Managerialism does not capture the imagination. Therefore if they are to survive as a serious force in politics they will need to tack left or right and make up their mind whether they are a centralist or decentralist party. To survive they will have to stop trying to face both ways simultaneously as any party of the centre inevitably ends up doing...

FrancisUrquhart

Mr Begg told the BBC he thought he knew some individuals linked to those holding Mr Henning.

Prime Minister David Cameron urged him to share any information he had. Whitehall officials confirmed the government did not accept Mr Begg's offer of help at first, but did later.

He told the BBC he had helped secure the release of hostages from extremists in Syria in the past.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-29518323

For a guy who supposedly just ran a book shop, how would he know such people and be able to contact them?

Forget airstrikes, sounds like we we can defeat ISIS by employing the help of Waterstone managers in the fight against the worlds most extreme terrorist organisation.

Neil

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Tory tactics re #LDConf are interesting: while Libs bash Tories whenever possible this week and last, to a man Tories remain rigidly mute.

But not to a woman if you heard Theresa May's speech.

Freggles

Scott_P said:

LD 2010 voters will vote Labour, letting EdM win.

Wait, what? Oh...

Never mind.

@MSmithsonPB: If strong LD incumbency defences prevent CON from taking 10+ seats in defiance of swing then LAB could lead on seats even though 4% behind

So is it CON leads from here on in then?

Roger

Alanbrooke.

So now Leeds, Manchester and Middlesborough are facing up to grooming gangs.

Let's hope the thin blue line holds in Ludlow

manofkent2014

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Tory tactics re #LDConf are interesting: while Libs bash Tories whenever possible this week and last, to a man Tories remain rigidly mute.

I can smell a deal in the offing. It was amazing that the Tories had no one talking about Energy or Business at their conference. Surely there can be only one reason why?

Scott_P

Freggles said:

So is it CON leads from here on in then?

Only in Scotland...

Neil

FrancisUrquhart said:

For a guy who supposedly just ran a book shop, how would he know such people and be able to contact them?

Presumably because he has been fighting in Syria as he discussed with MI5 who didnt seem to have a problem with it.

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Alanbrooke.

So now Leeds, Manchester and Middlesborough are facing up to grooming gangs.

Let's hope the thin blue line holds in Ludlow

As you well know Roger there is no-one under 50 in the town.

Itajai

dr_spyn said:

"UKIP want to prioritise social housing for people whose parents and grandparents were born locally." How very Aryan.

Not sure how that would be controversial. Except in eh far out reaches of PC-land.
Better give housing to third world immigrants brought in to shore up the Labour vote then? How is that "fairer"?

TCPoliticalBetting

If the Lib Dems went back to becoming classical liberals (the Orange bookers), they would be resonating with Generation Y. "According to The Economist, surveys of political attitudes among Millennials in the United Kingdom suggest increasingly liberal attitudes with regard to social and cultural issues, as well as higher overall support for classical liberal economic policies than preceding generations. " wikipedia

However, just as these start to vote in increasing numbers, the Lib Dems are swinging more left wing and isolating the orange bookers such as Jeremy Browne.

Itajai

nigel4england said:

Fenman said:

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

If UKIP really were racist and homophobic they would get the Muslim vote.

The normally vote for the real racist party in the UK, the Labour party. What other party is proposing quotas to discriminate against whites?

JosiasJessop

Roger said:

FPT.
"Turkey is sowing the wind but will reap the whirlwind."

There seems to be little understanding on here of Turkey's attitude to the Kurds. They were terrorized by these people over a twenty year period and they'll tell you their brutality was on a par with ISIS.

It's reckoned that the Kurds under Ocalan were responsible for at least 40,000 Turkish deaths.

Asking them to aide the Kurds for the common good is just a non starter.

I was working in Istanbul in the late 90's and after the job my client invited me for dinner with his family.

He told me that his son had been a conscript in the army (as all Turks were obliged to be) and had returned with severe psychological problems. He had the severest shakes I've ever seen and though he could speak English he was all over the place.

The father explained that he had been posted to one of the border towns with a large Kurdish population and during the day they went about their business and at night killed as many Turkish soldiers as they could find.

The young soldiers returned nervous wrecks. Some were so disturbed they killed themselves and his son had been under a psychiatrist for over a year. His father was visibly distraught in the presence of his son.

I find it very difficult to see these plucky Kurds in the same way as others do.

You have to differentiate between the Kurds and the armed terrorists who fight in their name.

However giving arms to the Kurds via various Pehmerga groups is only going to end badly. A big reason the PKK signed a peace deal with Turkey in 2012 was so they could release fighters to go to Syria and fight with the Peshermga.

Sadly, I doubt we have any alternative now except to arm the Kurds, and hence it will end badly.

Itajai

Alanbrooke said:

So now Leeds, Manchester and Middlesborough are facing up to grooming gangs.

All Labour rotten boroughs?

TCPoliticalBetting

manofkent2014 said:

As for the Libdems I think if they attempt to rigidly adhere to the centreground they are going to find their existence extremely difficult for the simple reason is that there is little narrative from being centrist. There is no underlying political ideology to adopting the centre ground. Managerialism does not capture the imagination. Therefore if they are to survive as a serious force in politics they will need to tack left or right and make up their mind whether they are a centralist or decentralist party. To survive they will have to stop trying to face both ways simultaneously as any party of the centre inevitably ends up doing...

They have been shifting left since 2010 and watching their polling fall further.

AndyJS

Latest exchange odds, Rochester & Strood:

UKIP 1.53
Con 2.96
Lab 29
Oth 450

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.115707446

Roger

Alanbrooke

"As you well know Roger there is no-one under 50 in the town."

And I'm sure they're standing with their pitchforks on the edge of town as we speak.

Plato

I can't help wondering if Danny Alexander would want to be adopted as a Tory if he loses his seat at GE2015.

Ditto Jeremy Browne. They're drier than I am politically.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

manofkent2014 said:

As for the Libdems I think if they attempt to rigidly adhere to the centreground they are going to find their existence extremely difficult for the simple reason is that there is little narrative from being centrist. There is no underlying political ideology to adopting the centre ground. Managerialism does not capture the imagination. Therefore if they are to survive as a serious force in politics they will need to tack left or right and make up their mind whether they are a centralist or decentralist party. To survive they will have to stop trying to face both ways simultaneously as any party of the centre inevitably ends up doing...

They have been shifting left since 2010 and watching their polling fall further.

surbiton

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

FPT.
"Turkey is sowing the wind but will reap the whirlwind."

There seems to be little understanding on here of Turkey's attitude to the Kurds. They were terrorized by these people over a twenty year period and they'll tell you their brutality was on a par with ISIS.

It's reckoned that the Kurds under Ocalan were responsible for at least 40,000 Turkish deaths.

Asking them to aide the Kurds for the common good is just a non starter.

I was working in Istanbul in the late 90's and after the job my client invited me for dinner with his family.

He told me that his son had been a conscript in the army (as all Turks were obliged to be) and had returned with severe psychological problems. He had the severest shakes I've ever seen and though he could speak English he was all over the place.

The father explained that he had been posted to one of the border towns with a large Kurdish population and during the day they went about their business and at night killed as many Turkish soldiers as they could find.

The young soldiers returned nervous wrecks. Some were so disturbed they killed themselves and his son had been under a psychiatrist for over a year. His father was visibly distraught in the presence of his son.

I find it very difficult to see these plucky Kurds in the same way as others do.

You have to differentiate between the Kurds and the armed terrorists who fight in their name.

However giving arms to the Kurds via various Pehmerga groups is only going to end badly. A big reason the PKK signed a peace deal with Turkey in 2012 was so they could release fighters to go to Syria and fight with the Peshermga.

Sadly, I doubt we have any alternative now except to arm the Kurds, and hence it will end badly.

Kobani is/was a PKK village.

JBriskin

Lol - Menchy well sexy in the morning - she obviously knows all about dem angles.

Alanbrooke

Roger said:

Alanbrooke

"As you well know Roger there is no-one under 50 in the town."

And I'm sure they're standing with their pitchforks on the edge of town as we speak.

Pitchforks are so passe, these days a Stihl chainsaw is more likely.

stodge

TCPoliticalBetting said:

They have been shifting left since 2010 and watching their polling fall further.

Absurd but predictable comment from those usually ill-disposed and ill-informed regarding the Party. The LDs have remained in the centre while some elements of the Conservative party have swept off to the Right to try to accommodate UKIP.

I'm afraid it's poor David Cameron who is left riding the two horses - I suspect his instincts are to remain a Liberal Conservative - unfortunately many in his Party don't want that.

Scott_P

They should sell tickets...

@MichaelPDeacon: Nigel Farage laid down "a challenge" to Ed Miliband today. "Why don't we go to a working men's club in Newcastle, and see who gets on best"

Plato

That statement is long on opinion and no facts.

What's been "swept off to the Right" ?

I can't think of anything myself that's much different today from the Tories that they weren't saying in their 2010 manifesto.

stodge said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

They have been shifting left since 2010 and watching their polling fall further.

Absurd but predictable comment from those usually ill-disposed and ill-informed regarding the Party. The LDs have remained in the centre while some elements of the Conservative party have swept off to the Right to try to accommodate UKIP.

I'm afraid it's poor David Cameron who is left riding the two horses - I suspect his instincts are to remain a Liberal Conservative - unfortunately many in his Party don't want that.

Fenman

Richard_Tyndall said:

Fenman said:

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

I wonder which party best represents bigoted fools like you? Certainly none that believe in the basic principles of democracy.

In what way does this show that I don't believe in democracy? I fully accept that Racists and Homophobes should be represented. My question is who is best at doing it?

Plato

That would be a hoot. Nigel is great box office. I'd love to see him jousting with Boris.

Scott_P said:

They should sell tickets...

@MichaelPDeacon: Nigel Farage laid down "a challenge" to Ed Miliband today. "Why don't we go to a working men's club in Newcastle, and see who gets on best"

JBriskin

Scott_P said:

They should sell tickets...

@MichaelPDeacon: Nigel Farage laid down "a challenge" to Ed Miliband today. "Why don't we go to a working men's club in Newcastle, and see who gets on best"

War Drums

(Self depreciating comment EDITED!!!!!!!! Fuck Yeah!!!)

JosiasJessop

surbiton said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

FPT.
"Turkey is sowing the wind but will reap the whirlwind."

There seems to be little understanding on here of Turkey's attitude to the Kurds. They were terrorized by these people over a twenty year period and they'll tell you their brutality was on a par with ISIS.

It's reckoned that the Kurds under Ocalan were responsible for at least 40,000 Turkish deaths.

Asking them to aide the Kurds for the common good is just a non starter.

I was working in Istanbul in the late 90's and after the job my client invited me for dinner with his family.

He told me that his son had been a conscript in the army (as all Turks were obliged to be) and had returned with severe psychological problems. He had the severest shakes I've ever seen and though he could speak English he was all over the place.

The father explained that he had been posted to one of the border towns with a large Kurdish population and during the day they went about their business and at night killed as many Turkish soldiers as they could find.

The young soldiers returned nervous wrecks. Some were so disturbed they killed themselves and his son had been under a psychiatrist for over a year. His father was visibly distraught in the presence of his son.

I find it very difficult to see these plucky Kurds in the same way as others do.

You have to differentiate between the Kurds and the armed terrorists who fight in their name.

However giving arms to the Kurds via various Pehmerga groups is only going to end badly. A big reason the PKK signed a peace deal with Turkey in 2012 was so they could release fighters to go to Syria and fight with the Peshermga.

Sadly, I doubt we have any alternative now except to arm the Kurds, and hence it will end badly.

Kobani is/was a PKK village.

Source, please. Kobani's in Syria, and the PKK had more to do with Iraqi Kurdistan than Syrian Kurds. It wouldn't surprise me if you were right, but it would be good to see where you got your information from.

ISTR that Syria threw Ocalan (PKK leader) out a couple of decades ago, after which the PKK were on Syria's terrorist organisation list. It would therefore be interesting if it was a PKK hive.

Roger

Moazzam Begg seems to be making a play for a part on Strictly

manofkent2014

Fenman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Fenman said:

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

I wonder which party best represents bigoted fools like you? Certainly none that believe in the basic principles of democracy.

In what way does this show that I don't believe in democracy? I fully accept that Racists and Homophobes should be represented. My question is who is best at doing it?

I think you would do a tremendous job!

MikeK

More evidence that a 3rd round of Europe wide recession is nigh:

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/europes-economic-house-cards-collapse/2427

Could drag Britain down with them before the election.

Morris_Dancer

Good evening, everyone.

Cheers for that link, Mr. Jessop (I disappeared after my last post, hence the prolonged delay for a reply). It seems near certain he won't be able to return to F1. If so, that'd be a tragedy. As well as being very popular, he was a talented chap and could well've ended up in a top team.

Socrates

Fenman said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Fenman said:

The Liberal Democrats might disappear, but Liberalism has been written off before and remained.

UKIP? Well someone has to represent racists and homophobes and if the Tories aren't up to it anymore perhaps UKIP is here to stay?

I wonder which party best represents bigoted fools like you? Certainly none that believe in the basic principles of democracy.

In what way does this show that I don't believe in democracy? I fully accept that Racists and Homophobes should be represented. My question is who is best at doing it?

Labour are probably best at it, seeing that they discourage crimes being investigated when they're done by certain ethnic groups, and seeing that they have shadow cabinet ministers that slam entire races.

manofkent2014

Itajai said:

dr_spyn said:

"UKIP want to prioritise social housing for people whose parents and grandparents were born locally." How very Aryan.

Not sure how that would be controversial. Except in eh far out reaches of PC-land.
Better give housing to third world immigrants brought in to shore up the Labour vote then? How is that "fairer"?

I imagine much of the populations of Bradford, Leicester, Slough, Brixton, Lewisham and Southall would qualify under such criteria

Morris_Dancer

Mr. K, the single currency may end up being the economic equivalent of Honorius' killing of Stilicho.

Financier

So more civil war at the LD conference as the members vote down their Leaders; proposal do a u-turn to the party's opposition to airport expansion in south east England, and allow expansion at Gatwick,

Presumably those members do not use flights for their European holidays or business travel and prefer Schipol or C de G to be the major European hub.

Socrates

Roger said:

FPT.
"Turkey is sowing the wind but will reap the whirlwind."

There seems to be little understanding on here of Turkey's attitude to the Kurds. They were terrorized by these people over a twenty year period and they'll tell you their brutality was on a par with ISIS.

It's reckoned that the Kurds under Ocalan were responsible for at least 40,000 Turkish deaths.

Asking them to aide the Kurds for the common good is just a non starter.

I was working in Istanbul in the late 90's and after the job my client invited me for dinner with his family.

He told me that his son had been a conscript in the army (as all Turks were obliged to be) and had returned with severe psychological problems. He had the severest shakes I've ever seen and though he could speak English he was all over the place.

The father explained that he had been posted to one of the border towns with a large Kurdish population and during the day they went about their business and at night killed as many Turkish soldiers as they could find.

The young soldiers returned nervous wrecks. Some were so disturbed they killed themselves and his son had been under a psychiatrist for over a year. His father was visibly distraught in the presence of his son.

I find it very difficult to see these plucky Kurds in the same way as others do.

Terrorism is a terrible thing for whatever cause. However, it wouldn't have happened had Turkey allowed the Kurds self-determination.

surbiton

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, the single currency may end up being the economic equivalent of Honorius' killing of Stilicho.

Why do you write such shite ? I know you are anti European, but there is absolutely no reason why the Euro should collapse.

Socrates

Richard_Tyndall said:

And having dealt with the moronic Fenman, to respond to the thread header.

I would certainly hope that UKIP were not around in 10 years - at least not in anything resembling their current form. If they were then it would mean they had probably failed in their primary purpose of getting us out of the EU. If they had achieved that aim then I would see little purpose in their continued existence unless they had become a truly Libertarian party - something which I feel is unfortunately very unlikely.

It will probably not be until the early 2020s that we get a vote, and if we get a yes, then it will probably be a couple years negotiating withdrawal, so even a successful UKIP will likely be about in 2024.

Socrates

dr_spyn said:

"UKIP want to prioritise social housing for people whose parents and grandparents were born locally." How very Aryan.

Ever more desperate.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Surbiton, I am not anti-European. I'm anti-EU.

Just how well do you think the single currency is doing?

AlastairMeeks

Headline of the day, courtesy of the Express:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/showbiz/519821/Danny-Dyer-Mary-Berry-ear

And it doesn't involve a cure for Alzheimer's, the weather or Princess Diana.

Socrates

surbiton said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, the single currency may end up being the economic equivalent of Honorius' killing of Stilicho.

Why do you write such shite ? I know you are anti European, but there is absolutely no reason why the Euro should collapse.

Being anti-EU or anti-Euro is not the same thing as being anti-European.

Lefties are just desperate to paint people as being racist or xenophobic. They know their arguments don't stand up to the arguments that right-wingers are making, so they have to distort and misrepresent their opponent's views. I guess it's just a desperate attempt to raise morale when they know what a clusterf*ck their next government will be.

Socrates

MikeK said:

More evidence that a 3rd round of Europe wide recession is nigh:

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/europes-economic-house-cards-collapse/2427

Could drag Britain down with them before the election.

If you’re thinking of unleashing schadenfreude, don’t. Germany is a big export market for Britain, as is the whole of the Eurozone. If they don’t grow, ultimately, large parts of the UK economy does not grow either. And if that happens, under the fiscal rules set by the coalition government, there would have to be more austerity into the future.

It's almost like the European Union is a sinking ship and we need to shift our exports to the rest of the world, rather than stay part of a club that forces us to have trade barriers with them.

Luckyguy1983

Richard_Tyndall said:

And having dealt with the moronic Fenman, to respond to the thread header.

I would certainly hope that UKIP were not around in 10 years - at least not in anything resembling their current form. If they were then it would mean they had probably failed in their primary purpose of getting us out of the EU. If they had achieved that aim then I would see little purpose in their continued existence unless they had become a truly Libertarian party - something which I feel is unfortunately very unlikely.

I used to think this, but now I feel it's more about will, and momentum, than which institutions we're part of. I would love us to be outside the EU, but we could still fail as a country. Better inside the EU with a Thatcher batting for us than outside it with a third column leadership (obviously the best scenario is outside it with great leadership). A country must be solvent, capable of defending itself, and governed on behalf of the people. This will always be a battle that needs fighting.

DoubleCarpet

Last call for by-election game

Entries for the Clacton and Heywood & Middleton game close at 7pm tomorrow:

http://www.electiongame.co.uk/clacton/

Many thanks,

DC

AlastairMeeks

David Coburn MEP ‏@DavidCoburnUKip · 23 mins23 minutes ago
Nigel Farage - " I think he (Miliband) will be gone by Christmas"

I'm not sure if that's a separate prediction from the one earlier today or the same one. Either way, Nigel Farage has predicted the demise of David Cameron or Ed Miliband on a very regular basis.

Financier

surbiton said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, the single currency may end up being the economic equivalent of Honorius' killing of Stilicho.

Why do you write such shite ? I know you are anti European, but there is absolutely no reason why the Euro should collapse.

The Eurozone has the same foundational faults that have not been rectified but have received temporary and thin patches that will not survive stretching. Another financial whirlwind could bring the whole edifice tumbling down around the ears of the Brussels theorists.

Morris_Dancer

Although I won't be participating, cheers for running the competition, Mr. Carpet.

TCPoliticalBetting

stodge said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

They have been shifting left since 2010 and watching their polling fall further.

Absurd but predictable comment from those usually ill-disposed and ill-informed regarding the Party. The LDs have remained in the centre while some elements of the Conservative party have swept off to the Right to try to accommodate UKIP.

LD Voice survey "Lib Dems prefer Labour as our partners by 3:1: you can interpret this in a couple of different ways (not mutually exclusive). Perhaps Lib Dems are more comfortable with a liberal-left coalition."

Luckyguy1983

surbiton said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, the single currency may end up being the economic equivalent of Honorius' killing of Stilicho.

Why do you write such shite ? I know you are anti European, but there is absolutely no reason why the Euro should collapse.

People who predicted the Euro would collapse severely underestimated the economic carnage that the EU would allow the euro to create before they canned it.

david_herdson

Luckyguy1983 said:

surbiton said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, the single currency may end up being the economic equivalent of Honorius' killing of Stilicho.

Why do you write such shite ? I know you are anti European, but there is absolutely no reason why the Euro should collapse.

People who predicted the Euro would collapse severely underestimated the economic carnage that the EU would allow the euro to create before they canned it.

The Euro didn't create the carnage; it revealed it.

TCPoliticalBetting

Luckyguy1983 said:

surbiton said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. K, the single currency may end up being the economic equivalent of Honorius' killing of Stilicho.

Why do you write such shite ? I know you are anti European, but there is absolutely no reason why the Euro should collapse.

People who predicted the Euro would collapse severely underestimated the economic carnage that the EU would allow the euro to create before they canned it.

True.

manofkent2014

Luckyguy1983 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

And having dealt with the moronic Fenman, to respond to the thread header.

I would certainly hope that UKIP were not around in 10 years - at least not in anything resembling their current form. If they were then it would mean they had probably failed in their primary purpose of getting us out of the EU. If they had achieved that aim then I would see little purpose in their continued existence unless they had become a truly Libertarian party - something which I feel is unfortunately very unlikely.

I used to think this, but now I feel it's more about will, and momentum, than which institutions we're part of. I would love us to be outside the EU, but we could still fail as a country. Better inside the EU with a Thatcher batting for us than outside it with a third column leadership (obviously the best scenario is outside it with great leadership). A country must be solvent, capable of defending itself, and governed on behalf of the people. This will always be a battle that needs fighting.

And yet you would have us exist within an institution that would dissolve the national organisations that provide us such security. Its seems a strange way to go about things. To suggest the UK will fail as a country is a vote of no confidence in its people. Frankly its far more likely we select leaders who do not deserve our confidence than suggesting that the British people do not deserve it.

Fenman

Liberal Democrats are always happier with Labour. doesn't mean they won't form a coalition with the Tories again. Tactically that would be their best option.

TCPoliticalBetting

Socrates said:

MikeK said:

More evidence that a 3rd round of Europe wide recession is nigh:

http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/europes-economic-house-cards-collapse/2427

Could drag Britain down with them before the election.

If you’re thinking of unleashing schadenfreude, don’t. Germany is a big export market for Britain, as is the whole of the Eurozone. If they don’t grow, ultimately, large parts of the UK economy does not grow either. And if that happens, under the fiscal rules set by the coalition government, there would have to be more austerity into the future.
It's almost like the European Union is a sinking ship and we need to shift our exports to the rest of the world, rather than stay part of a club that forces us to have trade barriers with them.

Paul Mason is a leftie and highlights the danger of another euro recession. Mason's solution is to tackle the banks. What is missing is any sense that the EC needs to remove a mass of rules and regulations to free up private enterprise and cut back Govt taxation.