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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour MPs urge Alan Johnson to challenge for leader
Labour MPs in despair at Ed Miliband’s weak leadership are planning renewed efforts to tempt Alan Johnson into challenging for leader before the election.
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He's very likeable, but completely screwed up the GP negotiation and is out of his depth on the economy. Labour have been led by Miliband for 3-4 years and it's not like people haven't suggested he's rubbish during that period.
As per Brown, they're only harming themselves by bitching uselessly instead of uniting behind their leader or just axing him.
Ain't gonna happen.
Has that been replicated across other pollsters? And how much do we think this will fade as we get closer to the election?
Not sure he'll stand though, and the Party may prefer Jowell or Khan.
He won't challenge Ed, nor should he. Paper talk.
I agree, it's very unlikely. But not totally beyond the realms of possibility.
(If TSE runs my guest article, you'll see how!)
"Until 1968, it was illegal to put the name of a political party on a ballot paper. Voters were expected to vote for a person, not a party. "
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/douglascarswellmp/100288791/voters-have-turned-against-politics-as-usual/
Sadly he'd probably be more popular than Ed Milliband, but I don't think that is a particular high praise.
Labour won't be changing anything this close to the election anyway and they probably don't need to.
A) He might lose
or
Very happy with that.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1565364/Alan-Johnson-not-good-enough-to-be-PM.html
A yougov poll shows the Tories slightly ahead and bang Alan Johnson wants to challenge for the leadership the very next day. What happens if yougov made an outlier? He could have waited a few days to see the clear picture, but no he had to make a rushed half baked move.
Today is Monday and as I said by tonight we will know if yougov had an outlier.
But Alan Johnson doesn't seem to have patience.
It worked for Jim Callaghan...??
I've had a look at seats the Lib Dems are defending to see how many more seats they would hold onto, relative to UNS, for different levels of incumbency bonus. Obviously there are caveats, including that:
-The results are based on a UNS (apart from the incumbency effect, obviously) whereas in reality swings in contests involving Lib Dems can be are highly variable.
-The incumbency bonus is assumed to be equal for all Lib Dem incumbents
http://numbercruncheruk.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/the-lib-dem-incumbency-bonus-how-many.html
To cut to the chase, and bearing in mind all the caveats noted above and in the post, the analysis suggests that an incumbency effect of around 6 points would likely be needed to save more than ten seats relative to a uniform national swing. On current polling, this points to a seat total somewhere in the 20s. But I'll avoid making formal seat projections for the time being.
You could say Jim Murphy looked like he had more than two brain cells to rub together, but he's Scottish and they are going to get devomax at some point in the next year or so.
The fact that Alan Johnson is being mentioned shows the lack of viable alternatives at the top of the Labour party.
That enough subcontinent people will vote for him purely because of his ethnicity and not his merits.
I bought a companion rabbit for our remaining Doe yesterday, one of them will have to be neutered eventually though.
Well it's clear they [lucifer & prometheus] both had their roots in the same source beliefs.
But the difference was that while Lucifer got up and raged against God and publicly tried to encourage defecters, Prometheus snuck into Olympus one night and pinched some of the best goodies before handing them out willy-nilly with no thought given to the long-term consequences.
I'll leave it to you to figure out the simile.
@Plato
Don't go with the Jackson films. They're terrible. If you want to watch it, watch the cartoon from 1978.
Sadly they stopped it halfway through when the illustrator died, but it's far far better...
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lord_of_the_Rings_(1978_film)
After discussing Party conferences and seasides - it seemed in keeping.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lobby_Lud
"Well his merits are actually pretty strong, but yes, there are areas where he could be expected to win about 120% of the votes."
lol
And speaking of cartoon and Jim Murphy upthread - he really does look like Skeletor.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cohort_(military_unit)
2 jags might have taken the bait but some are much poorer than him,and a lot wiser.
It's pretty dark...
That interview on the Daily Politics, Paddy Ashdown was incredibly prickly from the off. Either he got out of bed the wrong side or he has some serious issues with Neil.
Heh!
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/cohort
/pedant
This Telegraph piece and the Sunday Times one yesterday attempting to sow seeds of unrest within Labour.
Yet, er, the Tories are two MPs down!
Potentially about to lose the resulting 2 by elections on the spin (although I still fancy the Tories to hold in R&S despite Survation)! Hell maybe about to break loose, but it is the Tories who are in the path of the developing storm.
Look in your own back yard RWP.
Disappointing for the Tories so soon after their conference.
Interesting. More polls needed.
The current issue of Viz features a Roger Mellie idea for a new TV programme called "What's My Rumour?" where contestants have to guess what is the rumour circulating on the internet about celebrity guests.
"Only" I commented "if they're not cooked properly!"
Took me quite a long time to become well thought of again, certainly by the younger female members of staff!
Threatening the freedom of the press.
His political career is over. Finished. An ex parrot etc.
It does show, however, that David Miliband was smart to get out of the building.
Ahh! Labour to have it's Ming Moment.
I was quite taken aback - then laughed out loud. I'll look at him in a whole new light from now on!
Just looking at the Survation poll. 27% of 2010 Con voters are 'undecided', but 'likely to vote'.
Table 4, page 7
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Heywood-Middleton-Tables.pdf
This week's Ashcroft National Poll, plus Heywood & Middleton by-election poll, all on @ConHome today at 4pm.
But no, I'm not betting on him taking over from Ed Miliband.
Personally I just like interviewers who are functionally numerate. It is so rare. Neil and Evan Davis and then I have to think for a bit. Maybe it is that ability to count that makes them feel so superior in the media world?
Time for you to lead an elite team of volunteer thriller writers into the jaws of hell in an attempt to rescue western civilization Sean.
Or you can stay at home, drink your wine, and let every other poor sod do the fighting for you.
Good job I’d had lunch otherwise I’d have become hungry!
"SeanT's books are banned in areas under ISIS control"
They might be brutal and sadistic....but at least they have good taste in literature?
:-)
One way for Turkey to manage their Kurdish Problem. What a bastard President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has turned out to be. Not a move against IS in Kobane.
#Kurdish fighter who appeared on a BBC report in Sept, shot herself to avoid #ISIS capture during fighting. #Kobane pic.twitter.com/JMEXd1vvMe
— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish)
October 6, 2014
For example, he challenged Hague on not meeting the immigration target at Conservative conference. He asked why the target hadn't been met and why people shouldn't vote UKIP given that failure; what was Hague going to do about it, to meet the pledge?
One gets the impression that had it been Naughtie, Mair or Snow they might have quoted someone in the Tory party who had reservations (e.g. Mark Field) and instead asked him why he didn't just abandon the target given it had failed.
You also soiled your underwear when some kids got a bit frisky in your "burb"?
You credentials as a hero are a bit suspect.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2781685/He-exhorted-dervishes-like-Mahdi-Omdurman-QUENTIN-LETTS-Lib-Dem-conference.html#ixzz3FM772cmG
There will come a point when it is in one or other of their interests to do so but at the moment their relative strength vis a vis their neighbours is simply being increased. The idea that token flights with strict instructions not to risk the lives of a civilian are going to make any difference are strictly for the fantasists amongst us.
Meanwhile the performance of that incredibly expensively created and trained Iraqi army is nothing short of completely embarrassing. Embarrassing for themselves and for the many units who claimed they had done good work training them.
One is full of brutal and sadistic treatment.
The other is a terrorist organisation.
Oh different Cobane!!
I would not bet on Danny.
http://www.libdemvoice.org/whos-up-whos-down-how-party-members-rate-the-performances-of-leading-lib-dems-11-42765.html
We're all watching Strictly.
(I assume here that anyone with any sense of self preservation has got the hell out of town)
All that said I think the Labour party is desperately short of people with his level of competence and decision making skills. He would almost certainly have kept the Labour party in a position closer to that maintained by Blair and he would not have shied away from necessary modernisation of public services in fear of upsetting the Unions. I think he would have been a much more difficult person for the Tories to challenge than Ed is. But then there are a lot of people who fall within that definition.
Then there will be a few who think IS won't be as bad as they're painted and want to risk it.
It's easy to imagine circumstances where an elderly couple do not want to leave the home they've lived in for decades, their daughter doesn't want to leave them, her husband does not want to leave her, and they can't send their kids alone. So they all stay.
I hope to God known of us ever have to make such decisions ...
And where exactly do they go? We going to take them?
Blimey, how desperate are things within Labour? - AJ is a nice guy, but not PM material imho.
I predicted last year that all three party leaders would still be there next May - nothing has made me change my mind.
The reality of it is that a surge was attempted and failed in Iraq so the chances of US+ dropping hundreds of thousands, literally hundreds of thousands of troops into the Levant to subdue IS (pls note: from 29 June 2014 = IS) is fantasy.
Some options (from a whole lot of very very bad ones) are a) send hundreds of thousands of allied troops to subdue IS, impose a legal, political, bureaucratic system on the region and then prop up their favoured government for the subsequent 50 years; b) to treat with them, draw a green line around where they are today or next week and say - here's your caliphate, please don't be so beastly; c) organise a (somehow anti-Sunni) Sunni coalition of the willing but frankly, it will be so US military advisor heavy we are kind of in "surge" territory again; d) impress upon Iran to reawaken it's Shia-Sunni, Iran-Iraq war consciousness and somehow what? Invade the Levant? Fund counter-groups? We are back in civil war territory and do we want Iran to win that one?
My $0.02? God that's tricky - probably "b)", realpolitikally. Not 100% sure that is the answer, can't think of any other options, however.
The lack of drones etc is odd. Very odd.