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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is this is what is driving the Tory lead?
I’ve said before, polling on conference policies can be a lot like budget polling. Policies can get a lot of support in the immediate aftermath, but sometimes the boost in the VI fades, but the Tories will be delighted to enjoy plurality support for their two major conference policies.
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Dave getting a proper "bounce" in YouGov:
Net "well"
Cameron: -4 (+8)
Miliband: -46 (-3)
And loads of internals showing upticks too.
On policy the 40p rate is net supported (+16), as is scrapping the HRA (+20).
On whether Conservatives in office would implement their policies - it's a mixed bag (net would):
Increase personal allowance: +19
Increase 40p threshold: +60
Protect NHS from spending cuts: -20
Hold referendum on EU: +10
Build 100,000 homes: -13
EVEL : +17
The UKIP defectors are seen as honourable:
Switched because of beliefs: 47
Switched to hang onto seat: 31
It's not that surprising - the media present the Human rights Act as favouring "others" and in any polling about liberties and/or penal policy it must never be forgotten that the abolition of capital punishment is seen as oppression by the liberal élite of the wishes of the "plain man and woman" and this resentment may well be projected onto the actual subject of the poll. Indeed, I think we may count on UKIP proposing a referendum on capital punishment in their election manifesto.
As to reducing the tax rate, people don't really understand how taxation works. They just don't like it, so anything that sounds like there'll be less of it gets support.
Compared with the aimlessness and uselessness of the Labour conference, the Conservative conference looked like a clear plan for government. The LibDems look in denial of electoral reality at theirs, and UKIP was just incoherent populism. As the months tick away dodging the bullet of the two Eds will look increasingly attractive to voters.
In this context, Ed does not appear to have sustained a 'bounce' of any description.....
Say to Labour voters "You can't win here, so vote for your enemies at the next GE to give us a massive boost."
Say to Ukip voters "You're not very bright are you, vote for us you cretins." And "Vote Ukip, get Ed" doesn't work for this by election.
And how can Labour get tactical votes? Say to Tories exactly the same as the Tories say to Labpour voters (with as much chance of success)?
Perhaps the bookies have got this right?
http://www.mediafire.com/view/heaelbee9khye64/12-month YouGov.jpg#
The Tory conference did what was required. Labour's? Not so much...
The Labour Party may take bit longer, but another two months of Tory leads in the opinion polls will see surely see the end of the two Eds leadership. They lost the one battle that matters before May - who would win the 2014 conference. They have to go.
It has to be remembered that 9 of the others are Democratic Unionists or Ulster unionists who are from the right of the spectrum and five more are SF and won't vote:
Therefore the real picture is:
C & Fellow Travellers 308
Lab 313
Lib 11
Others 13
I think the problem for labour is that with the fixed term act and no election until next May, a lot of voters are still using opinion polls to express their verdict on the government rather than who their will vote for next time.
Edit that poll on baxter to give 1% extra to the tories at the expense of the liberals (37/34/6)and it becomes:
C & Fellow Travellers 317
Lab 303
Lib 11
Others 13
Edit that poll on baxter to give 4% extra to the liberals at the expense of labour ie (36/30/10) and it becomes:
C & Fellow Travellers 331
Lab 280
Lib 19
Others 15
Its beginning to look to me like a Tory win either with a minority or very small majority which will govern with supply and confidence (whether official or unofficial) from DUP and UKIP.
There is no doubt that this will drag UK politics significantly to the right (or to be more accurate back towards the centre from the left where even the tories are currently parked certainly on social issues) and not before time.
Would you really burn the house down because you don't like the current tenant?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/05/general-election-2015-seven-key-battlegrounds
You must be heartened to see Cameron's EU referendum pledge is trusted....
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article1467496.ece
Cameron pulled a hutch full of rabbits out of his top hat and clearly convinced a lot of people that he's the man for the job. He delivers in spades when his back is against the wall. He does great set pieces like Bloody Sunday which was a minefield to navigate... that was widely acknowledged as perfectly pitched.
He's not perfect by any means, but then nobody is. I'll take him as PM and Party Leader any day than be saddled with some of his biggest critics within or without.
It's been a very long time since we had a good leader who looked and sounded the part. I really liked John Major and am rather protective about him. He was just too grey for many - though clearly if they actually paid attention to what he did more, they'd see that he was quite a dark horse [and I don't just mean Edwina].
@faisalislam: But I'm far more intrigued re: how yougov went from +7 Labour (38-31) to +1 conservatives, in a day, the day of Cameron tax cut speech: 1/2
@faisalislam: And the answer we can now see because the poll data has been released lies with an extraordinary change in voting intentions of ex LibDems..
Cameron turned the polls around with one speech on one day. Consider what he could do with two months of campaigning.
Meanwhile the labour critics are starting to get bolder and louder.
Surely every HMG that's elected has high expectation laid upon it.
Clearly Mr Hollande sold his country a pack of lies, but they wanted to believe that economic gravity could be defied - a bit like Greece did a while ago.
I may be flattering our populace, but I don't think they'd elect the likes of Mr Hollande's prospectus here.
So, no I don't think that the expectations on a Tory Maj HMG would be any different to any other TBH. The election to supposedly lose was the last one. It's turned out not too badly for the Tories - but badly for the LDs. And the jury is out for Labour though they appear to have lost any Opposition advantage by failing to deal with their own wardrobe full of skeletons.
Its going to be an awful blow for many of you when you regain your sense....
The lib dem switchers....are switching to the conservatives...????
Shome Mishtake Shurely???
I was thinking about Christmas yesterday and Jingle Bear - was that you? My memory is getting fuzzy.
A worrying end to the Japanese GP. Hope everyone's okay ...
Hang on. Dave swerves to the right and takes some libs with him..???
Surely not.
Tories: hungry to keep power, listening, prepared to be bold, but emphasizing that whilst progress is being made, the job is only part done - and Labour risks sending us backwards.
Labour:
*.....sound of tumbleweed blowing through.....*
I have been saying for many months on here that I think the campaign could really see the wheels fall off Labour - not just badly, but spectacularly. Once-in-a-generation badly. And that is fascinating for UKIP voters. Given Ed is so poor, I expect former Tory UKIP leaners to look at potential Prime Minister Ed Miliband and say "No, can't let that happen..." and go Tory on the day. And I expect former Labour UKIP leaners to look at potential Prime Minister Ed Miliband and say "No, can't let that happen..." and go UKIP on the day.
Had he delivered that speech 5 years ago, and then followed through, I'm sure I'd still be a member of the party.
Yes - had the grand children over from Oz last couple of weeks and JB has been out.
Anyone got a few £££s to relaunch Jingle Bear?
Sorry haven't been posting much - combination of depression about the (unfair) reaction to Lib Dems in Government and getting a job that I really enjoy.
Same in Scotland with SNP, too.
People on the left can't conceive of an 'anti labour' vote. But after the economic crash, Rotherham. Scottish votes for English laws, no EU referendum, slightly bigger house than yours tax....I think it is there.
the by-elections coming up will tell us more. Particularly the conservative and liberal vote in Heywood and Middleton.
#rumbled
I loved his comment - along the lines of "Labour aren't talking about immigration, this is a mistake. I'm an immigrant and we're importing too many of the wrong sort".
What more of a push does EdM need here?
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8xpy43vlqr/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-031014.pdf
What those figures show though is that current Tory and LD voters are more accepting of a renewed Tory LD deal than 2010 Tories and certainly 2010 LDs were
He was always a stone in the shoe. Mr Reckless is a different kettle of fish, as many of us have noted.
It's never good to lose someone to a rival, but nor is it something to panic unduly over. If it'd turned into a Gang Of Four - I'd be concerned. It appears not since the £1m IOU press conference.
As a non-Tory, I'm not surprised to see the Conservatives flocking back to the standard even though some of them have been pretty critical about Cameron in the past.
I heard a comprehensive demolition of the ECHR policy on LBC by that well-known rabid socialist Dominic Grieve (also supporting a British Bill of Rights which the LDs have backed for decades) while the tax policy is nowhere near as good as it sounds. There's no commitment on when this will happen and everyone assumes it will be in Osborne's Budget. My suspicion is it's an aim for the next Parliament rather than an immediate giveaway.
For a Party supposedly serious about tackling the deficit, it's curious to see this largesse though the amount involved isn't that significant. So on the one hand the Conservatives are keen to "give us our money back", on the other benefit claimants are going to be told what they can and can't spend their money on in a piece of appalling populist-driven authoritarianism.
The general assumption that benefit claimants are "scroungers" doesn't stand up to any kind of inspection. Many have worked hard and have suffered misfortune either through health, marital or addiction problems so even though they may have contributed through tax and NI for years they will be told how to spend "their" money.
Perhaps if the Tories want to make a real difference, they should tell pensioners not to waste their pensions on cat food, bingo and buying presents for the grandchildren.
Anyway, to far more substantive matters and this afternoon's Arc de Triomphe in Paris. I'm a big fan of the fillies (guffaw) and have backed AVENIR CERTAIN to win with an each-way saver on CHICQUITA at a big price.
Meanwhile, this number still staggers me - in Scotland
Which party leader do you trust most - Cameron is +6 vs Miliband.
Thats how useless Ed is - in Scotland a posh out of touch Tory is better trusted than the Labour leader.....
@timsculthorpe: Conference has started. Attendance is not good for @joswinson #LDconf http://t.co/yHVSXU4wwu
I'd be more likely to run off with her than him. And that's not very likely at all.
Its clear:
i) its in the next Parliament with a majority Con government
ii) Once the deficit has been eliminated reduced - theres been a bit of fudge over this in the last few days.
Why would it not be the same as the delivered increase in personal tax allowance - implemented over the period of the Parliament?
Go read your original post
If you think that is justified you are beyond contempt.
"The party that gets your kids raped in front of you"
Specifically we've got the appearance of unfunded tax cut (*), which gives Labour a credible attack by saying it'll be paid for by putting up VAT, and something that's been spun as leaving the ECHR, but like the Cast Iron Promise, turns out not to be the way it's being spun when you check the small print.
(*) There probably isn't really much of an unfunded tax cut because a lot of it will just be walking forwards up the escalator as fast as inflation is carrying you backwards, but they can't really refute the claim that they'd put up other taxes to pay for it with, "No, our policy won't cost anything because it doesn't really cut your taxes".
And yes, benefit claimants are scroungers and the Tories have made work pay. Except work doesn't pay, and the people getting their benefits capped are working. Which will make work pay even less.
There is a basic problem between the paper economy and the real economy. They keep saying aren't we all doing well. Yet income tax receipts are falling despite employment soaring. Why? Because 15% are now "self employed" enjoying an average wage of just over £10k. BoJo (for it is he) just signed off housing redevelopment at Mount Pleasant where you'd need a £100k salary to afford the mortgage for what he described as "affordable housing". So we have British people who can't afford to work, migration fills the hole, then people complain about migration. Yes, the economy is great! Go ask the supermarkets.....
Will they be enticed home again - or not?
Labour supporters on here, doing their seat calculations, reckon on the SNP getting 6 seats next year.
That's despite a 12% swing against them in the latest polls. and a game changing referendum.
Completely, completely delusional.
The Tory media has jumped on this as a pre-election giveaway and this has, in my view, given the Conservatives a boost in the polls.
http://m.smh.com.au/rugby-union/union-match-report/argentina-pumas-claim-historic-rugby-championship-win-over-wallabies-20141005-10qgsr.html
Talking to 'Gareth' and 'Beatrice' of Dartmouth Park shows a disinclination to leave the metroposh comfort zone.
EdM clearly didn't understand what the AV referendum told him - that the 'progressive majority' doesn't exist.
He's dropped all the flirting with Guardian readers now and I think that's given his personal credo a boost. I always felt that he was trying to please them a little too hard, rather than being himself. He may still think AGW is legit - I can take that on the chin, the market has killed most of that off already.
In between those 5 years we have not had a tory govt but a coalition one.
If the Conservatives win next year's general election, do you think they would or would not do each of the following by 2020?
Increase the threshold for paying income tax at 40p in the pound, from just under £42,000 a year to £50,000 a year - Net 'Would' +60%
The imagery is helped by the 'economy bigger than before the recession' reports and the widespread belief that government debt is falling.
It looks as if the Tories are established as the party to defeat Reckless and so we might well expect the LD vote to be squeezed and some from labour as well.
I can count just 3 seats where the LAB lead over the SNP is less than 20%. In none of them is the lead less than 10%.
If you want to talk about things like this do it on the basis of facts.
Would hold a referendum on EU - net:
Con: +49
Lab: -2
LibD: +26
UKIP: -41
In other matters such as tax allowances (+19) and thresholds (+47), UKIP voters are more trusting, on issues affecting sovereignty, such as EVEL (-17), they are not.
Not discussing any further.
Sleep Easy.
I thought he was terribly keen on it? And has been for years? We discussed how many £2m houses there were in his own constituency very many moons ago.
Not the city - but the location for prospective attendees. Somewhere more central for the majority of their activist appeared to be a lot more realistic to get vital rare bums on seats.
If my Party were polling in the mid single digits - I'd not bother to drag myself to Glasgow either. It must be very disheartening for their supporters. I feel a bit sorry for them.
Just writing the post-race piece. Interesting race. Not sure I'd call it a classic, but it had its moments.