Is Dover not a seat that has moved towards the Tories over the last elections? Admittedly, has Hastings gone the other way?
Wouldn't surprise me as Hastings is certainly not the place it once was. Charlie Elphicke in Dover is one of Kent's livelier MPs who I think should be safe bar a Ukip surge splitting the vote
Mr. Punter, two important points: 1) discriminates against those with small families 2) I think you mean 'codger'. A 'todger' is another word for a tallywhacker, a wingwang, the one-eyed trouser snake etc etc.
@SouthamObserver – Indeed, such is life, but not too many regrets I hope.
As I’ve said before, I’m a Londoner born and bred and still love the place; unfortunately we left Beaufort Street, just off the Kings Rd in the mid 70s and moved south of the river. - A long story I hope to share when time permits.
No regrets at all. We are very happy here in Leamington. I'll just have to sort my pension out in other ways than property. Hopefully the business will do it for me.
I do still like to go home though. My family lived in the same part of London for a century or more and walking on Hampstead Heath - which is pretty much as it always was despite the huge changes all around it - I feel very close to them, which is a rather nice thing to feel.
No they have not virtually given up in the South of England , it is true that they are concentrating on a relatively small number of seats Hastings , Brighton and Hove , Dover and Crawley are examples .
Can't speak about Brighton or Hastings but they more or less given up in Dover
What utter drivel , look at the 2013 CC results for the districts making up the parliamentary seat , 3 Labour gains from Conservative .
Exactly what part of my post is "utter drivel"? As this is a betting site I'm happy to take any price I'm closer to the ground in Dover than anybody on this site.
Mr. Punter, two important points: 1) discriminates against those with small families 2) I think you mean 'codger'. A 'todger' is another word for a tallywhacker, a wingwang, the one-eyed trouser snake etc etc.
Thank you Morris.
1) Tough.
2) I could blame a typo but I suspect my mind was wandering.
Is Dover not a seat that has moved towards the Tories over the last elections? Admittedly, has Hastings gone the other way?
Wouldn't surprise me as Hastings is certainly not the place it once was. Charlie Elphicke in Dover is one of Kent's livelier MPs who I think should be safe bar a Ukip surge splitting the vote
The abolition of human rights in the UK has been a cunning Cameron plan which was reflected in the way he removed the 3 obstacles to change,Grieve,Clarke and Hague in the most recent reshuffle.This Daily Mail agenda only binds together those who care to celebrate the HRA,anyone but the Tories,or their pals in Tory Ukip. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28339263
Our human rights should not stem from an Act of Parliament or a treaty between states but should be innate. In fact, I'd argue that the HRA was more destructive of human rights than any other act of parliament in that it established the principle that rights only exist when parliament chooses to grant them and without such legislation they do not exist.
As for the ECHR, the most bedrock of all rights is democracy and an unelected and unaccountable court has no place in any democratic system.
David
Are you proposing that we elect judges in the UK?
No, I'm proposing that judges should be accountable to an elected government or parliament, that when bad law is passed or is misinterpreted by judges, it should be readily capable of amendment, and that in extremis, judges who persistently fail to apply the law appropriately can be removed by a democratically-accountable body (a sanction to be used sparingly but necessary as a final backstop).
The Tories need to get ahead of the mansion tax and put a buy-to-let land value tax in place so capital is properly invested rather than in housing stock that could be sold to owner-occupiers. The Tories need to get tough on buy-to-let housing if they are going to win over the current generation between 26-40. The starter homes initiative will help, but it needs to be on a massive scale to make a dent in dropping home ownership rates and to help generation rent get onto the housing ladder.
What it also does is introduce the principal of only taxing property assets that are deployed to return cash rather than those that do not return cash such as primary residences. Buy-to-let property is a liquid asset and introducing a 2-4% value tax on them with an exemption for new builds will change the housing market for the better.
Some people want and need to rent though, the attractiveness of buy to let depends on the yield it can garner in comparison to other investments as well as potential capital gains. Again addressing a symptom rather than the cause, namely mass immigration and too loose a monetary policy.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 46m 46 minutes ago Both Clacton, & Heywood & Middleton by-elections due to declare after 2am on Fri. Could Bickley beat Carswell to be Ukip's 1st elected MP?
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago @caucasianjerry Complacency, complacency - the gift to insurgents throughout the ages
The most important bit I think is this:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago Sun poll on Heywood & Middleton by-election was conducted by Survation yesterday and today. Results at 10pm tonight. Much may hang on them.
So Survation polled completely after Cameron's speech. Unfortunately they didn't do a poll before just to see the reaction.
The Tories need to get ahead of the mansion tax and put a buy-to-let land value tax in place so capital is properly invested rather than in housing stock that could be sold to owner-occupiers. The Tories need to get tough on buy-to-let housing if they are going to win over the current generation between 26-40. The starter homes initiative will help, but it needs to be on a massive scale to make a dent in dropping home ownership rates and to help generation rent get onto the housing ladder.
What it also does is introduce the principal of only taxing property assets that are deployed to return cash rather than those that do not return cash such as primary residences. Buy-to-let property is a liquid asset and introducing a 2-4% value tax on them with an exemption for new builds will change the housing market for the better.
Some people want and need to rent though, the attractiveness of buy to let depends on the yield it can garner in comparison to other investments as well as potential capital gains. Again addressing a symptom rather than the cause, namely mass immigration and too loose a monetary policy.
The disease is a chronic lack of housing, which allows wealthier buy-to-let investors use that to their advantage over a highly restricted supply. We need hundreds of thousands of new homes, not over the next parliament, but each year over the next parliament. House building rose 30% or something but needs to accelerated at that pace for another 3 years to match new demand, yet alone clear the backlog. Such is the need for political direction that the government might need to sponsor building on the level of a new town. Or do something radical with areas in the north where there is less of a shortage.
After Labour made a mountain out of a molehill over the spare room subsidy, it is strange they then themselves want to chuck people out of their own homes. Guess, as they own their own homes, rather than renting, they are evil rich Tories so fair game.
Some people are more equal than others. Socialism at its best.
You have made a better fist of making the point I was about to laboriously peck out on my kindle keyboard. Thanks.
The abolition of human rights in the UK has been a cunning Cameron plan which was reflected in the way he removed the 3 obstacles to change,Grieve,Clarke and Hague in the most recent reshuffle.This Daily Mail agenda only binds together those who care to celebrate the HRA,anyone but the Tories,or their pals in Tory Ukip. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28339263
Our human rights should not stem from an Act of Parliament or a treaty between states but should be innate. In fact, I'd argue that the HRA was more destructive of human rights than any other act of parliament in that it established the principle that rights only exist when parliament chooses to grant them and without such legislation they do not exist.
As for the ECHR, the most bedrock of all rights is democracy and an unelected and unaccountable court has no place in any democratic system.
David
Are you proposing that we elect judges in the UK?
No, I'm proposing that judges should be accountable to an elected government or parliament, that when bad law is passed or is misinterpreted by judges, it should be readily capable of amendment, and that in extremis, judges who persistently fail to apply the law appropriately can be removed by a democratically-accountable body (a sanction to be used sparingly but necessary as a final backstop).
Judges are not there to create laws as they do so often, elected officials should be more forthright in telling them their place, especially with their more creative interpretations. Judicial trranny is a topic Pat Buchanan has written very eloquently about.
"Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell, particularly in terms on popularity in his own constituency, he twice lost elections in the predecessor seat to Rochester & Strood The determination of the Tory party to win the by-election, predominantly because of the timing of Mark Reckless’ defection has annoyed the Tories no end. The Tory conference and David Cameron’s speech is expected to see the Tory vote rise in the polls. I expect we will see the “Go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed” meme tested to destruction here (to see if it works)"
I can't see a single factor in those mentioned above that might actually make the Tories more likely to win. I think you are confusing evidence with wishful thinking. Not good practice for a lawyer.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 46m 46 minutes ago Both Clacton, & Heywood & Middleton by-elections due to declare after 2am on Fri. Could Bickley beat Carswell to be Ukip's 1st elected MP?
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago @caucasianjerry Complacency, complacency - the gift to insurgents throughout the ages
The most important bit I think is this:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago Sun poll on Heywood & Middleton by-election was conducted by Survation yesterday and today. Results at 10pm tonight. Much may hang on them.
So Survation polled completely after Cameron's speech. Unfortunately they didn't do a poll before just to see the reaction.
Long term UKIP giving Labour a kicking in Heywood & Middleton would do Labour a power of good. It might force the party to confront a bit of reality.
Does anyone actually KNOW how many elderly ladies (or couples for that matter) who live in large London houses, but are so cash poor that they couldn’t pay increased rates. Even with Council Tax Relief?
No I don't but here is an analysis of the overall numbers of houses which people might find interesting.
In particular the interesting point for me is that 86% of the houses targeted are in London & The South East. Given I suspect London will be a key battleground (given the above average swings to Labour in London there may be 10 Tory seats in their sights) its an interesting tack for Miliband to take
Generally speaking, my experience is that people in £3 million houses who vote Labour are on the left of the party and perfectly willing to cough up. The impact on our election prospects in London will be negligible.
A Tory mate of mine who lives in Islington commented during the last local elections that the large houses were much more likely to have Labour posters in and the flats more likely to be Tory. Plenty of champagne socialists who wouldn't mind the mansion tax i guess.
Only the very rich can afford to be Socialists!
Surely the obvious thing for the cash poor living in a mansion is an equity release scheme? Indeed the mansion tax will be offset by loses on inheritance tax, as well as stamp duty on purchases.
To me the obvious thing is to only have one system of property tax, and to create some new bands at the top. Why run two parallel systems?
No they have not virtually given up in the South of England , it is true that they are concentrating on a relatively small number of seats Hastings , Brighton and Hove , Dover and Crawley are examples .
Can't speak about Brighton or Hastings but they more or less given up in Dover
What utter drivel , look at the 2013 CC results for the districts making up the parliamentary seat , 3 Labour gains from Conservative .
Exactly what part of my post is "utter drivel"? As this is a betting site I'm happy to take any price I'm closer to the ground in Dover than anybody on this site.
The utter drivel was your statement that Labour had more or less given up in Dover and Deal . The 2013 results ( and those in 2011 ) show that that is false . The Conservatives may ot may not win next May but again I say that for you to try and mislead everyone by saying that Labour have given up on the seat is clear utter drivel .
"Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell, particularly in terms on popularity in his own constituency, he twice lost elections in the predecessor seat to Rochester & Strood The determination of the Tory party to win the by-election, predominantly because of the timing of Mark Reckless’ defection has annoyed the Tories no end. The Tory conference and David Cameron’s speech is expected to see the Tory vote rise in the polls. I expect we will see the “Go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed” meme tested to destruction here (to see if it works)"
I can't see a single factor in those mentioned above that might actually make the Tories more likely to win. I think you are confusing evidence with wishful thinking. Not good practice for a lawyer.
"Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell, particularly in terms on popularity in his own constituency, he twice lost elections in the predecessor seat to Rochester & Strood" - when the seat receives a barrage of election material, it will be the people with most personal attachment to Reckless or Carswell that are most likely to jump ship.
"The determination of the Tory party to win the by-election, predominantly because of the timing of Mark Reckless’ defection has annoyed the Tories no end." - they are going to use election resources that could be spent elsewhere fighting this one, at the risk of a Pyrrhic victory.
No they have not virtually given up in the South of England , it is true that they are concentrating on a relatively small number of seats Hastings , Brighton and Hove , Dover and Crawley are examples .
Can't speak about Brighton or Hastings but they more or less given up in Dover
What utter drivel , look at the 2013 CC results for the districts making up the parliamentary seat , 3 Labour gains from Conservative .
Exactly what part of my post is "utter drivel"? As this is a betting site I'm happy to take any price I'm closer to the ground in Dover than anybody on this site.
The utter drivel was your statement that Labour had more or less given up in Dover and Deal . The 2013 results ( and those in 2011 ) show that that is false . The Conservatives may ot may not win next May but again I say that for you to try and mislead everyone by saying that Labour have given up on the seat is clear utter drivel .
As I suspected, you have little, if any, knowledge of what is going on within labour in Dover right now.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 46m 46 minutes ago Both Clacton, & Heywood & Middleton by-elections due to declare after 2am on Fri. Could Bickley beat Carswell to be Ukip's 1st elected MP?
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago @caucasianjerry Complacency, complacency - the gift to insurgents throughout the ages
The most important bit I think is this:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago Sun poll on Heywood & Middleton by-election was conducted by Survation yesterday and today. Results at 10pm tonight. Much may hang on them.
So Survation polled completely after Cameron's speech. Unfortunately they didn't do a poll before just to see the reaction.
Long term UKIP giving Labour a kicking in Heywood & Middleton would do Labour a power of good. It might force the party to confront a bit of reality.
From the responses on here, I'd happily go for a mixture of "there are no tanks" and unfocused anger.
‘Mansion Tax’ – it reminds me of term ’gas guzzlers’ used as a pretext for bringing in the ‘Congestion Charge’
Turned out it was every car was effected, no matter how big or small – same goes for the so called ‘Mansions’ - some are just 3/4 bed-roomed family homes in the right part of London.
The Tories need to get ahead of the mansion tax and put a buy-to-let land value tax in place so capital is properly invested rather than in housing stock that could be sold to owner-occupiers. The Tories need to get tough on buy-to-let housing if they are going to win over the current generation between 26-40. The starter homes initiative will help, but it needs to be on a massive scale to make a dent in dropping home ownership rates and to help generation rent get onto the housing ladder.
What it also does is introduce the principal of only taxing property assets that are deployed to return cash rather than those that do not return cash such as primary residences. Buy-to-let property is a liquid asset and introducing a 2-4% value tax on them with an exemption for new builds will change the housing market for the better.
Some people want and need to rent though, the attractiveness of buy to let depends on the yield it can garner in comparison to other investments as well as potential capital gains. Again addressing a symptom rather than the cause, namely mass immigration and too loose a monetary policy.
The disease is a chronic lack of housing, which allows wealthier buy-to-let investors use that to their advantage over a highly restricted supply. We need hundreds of thousands of new homes, not over the next parliament, but each year over the next parliament. House building rose 30% or something but needs to accelerated at that pace for another 3 years to match new demand, yet alone clear the backlog. Such is the need for political direction that the government might need to sponsor building on the level of a new town. Or do something radical with areas in the north where there is less of a shortage.
New towns are already being built, Mr. Grandiose. There is one for example going up next to Horsham in West Sussex (going to have a population around about 30K (no new major infrastructure to support such a population is being built of course). Planning permission is also being sought for a similar sized settlement in open countryside further south (again no proposals for new Infrastructure) and the strategic gap between Crawley and Horsham is being reduced to about 100 yards by building another new town. That is three new towns within 30 minutes drive of me. On top of that add in all the other smaller developments which are going up on every bit of land in or around just about every settlement in the county.
Where all the people are coming from to occupy all these new homes I don't know, but the idea that not enough building is going on is fanciful.
No they have not virtually given up in the South of England , it is true that they are concentrating on a relatively small number of seats Hastings , Brighton and Hove , Dover and Crawley are examples .
Can't speak about Brighton or Hastings but they more or less given up in Dover
What utter drivel , look at the 2013 CC results for the districts making up the parliamentary seat , 3 Labour gains from Conservative .
Exactly what part of my post is "utter drivel"? As this is a betting site I'm happy to take any price I'm closer to the ground in Dover than anybody on this site.
The utter drivel was your statement that Labour had more or less given up in Dover and Deal . The 2013 results ( and those in 2011 ) show that that is false . The Conservatives may ot may not win next May but again I say that for you to try and mislead everyone by saying that Labour have given up on the seat is clear utter drivel .
As I suspected, you have little, if any, knowledge of what is going on within labour in Dover right now.
I can read annual accounts of constituency parties and note that in 2013 membership of Dover and Deal Conservative Association fell from 295 to 263 and is now below that of Dover and Deal Labour CA . Clearly you are one of the rapidly dwindling local Conservative membership and feeling more and more lonely you come on here and post drivel .
I am seriously considering voting (or more apt lending Cameron my vote) Tory for the first time at the next GE- and this in a key Tory marginal. My reasoning is this- the next Parliament will be tough for whoever wins. Austerity on austerity. Cameron, for all his public school sense of entitlement, is actually not a bad leader and PM- and moderate for a Tory who are mostly off the radar nutters. And Ed- he is just so hopeless, that a sustained period with him as PM will lead Labour into political oblivion- this will all play into the hands of Boris Johnson and the fruitcakes.
So my mantra- vote Cameron, keep out Boris, and help sustain Labour as a political party in the long term once they despatch the hapless Ed. 2014 is a shitty election to win, so let the Tories shovel the shyte for another 5 years. OK- it might be a bit long for a political slogan, but it does have a good ring to it.
Mr. Royale, does that 75 seat gain assume he holds onto all Labour's Scottish seats?
I'd be surprised if Labour weren't the largest party in Scotland after the election, but they could lose a fair number of seats.
It's going to be a fun election in Scotland sort of musical chairs with electors.
If Labour attack the Tories heavily they simply undermine the Union even further and see Surgeon pick up more of the leftish voters who will vote to leave. Paradoxically they need the Tories to do well by picking up righties who vote SNP but who are now disquieted by an SNP lurch further left.
The SNP will use the Tory bogeyman to attack Labour as their little helpers but in doing so might just scare off some of their previous supporters however the big gains are to be made in places like Glasgow and stealing Labour's voters.
The Tories need to make themselves more local but if they play their cards right can pick up a few seats in rural areas.
The LDs just need to batten down the hatches and survive as everyone is after their lunch.
Realignment on the horizon.
Tories are hampered by fact that they are total crap
Tyson, Roger and SouthamObserver, the A Team of PB leftists, have despaired of EdM. Will Labour react and remove the wrong'un ?
Is that what you personally want, Moniker?
If Labour are seven points ahead with the wrong'un, where would they be with the right'un?
I've seen poor Labour leaders before but EdM is in a category of his own. He's lost Labour Scotland and the rot is spreading fast into the English and Welsh heartlands.
"Long term UKIP giving Labour a kicking in Heywood & Middleton would do Labour a power of good. It might force the party to confront a bit of reality."
I'm not sure what good a good kicking would do. The can hardly start stealing UKIP's clothes and if a general raising of their game was possible I think they'd have tried it last week.
The Tories need to get ahead of the mansion tax and put a buy-to-let land value tax in place so capital is properly invested rather than in housing stock that could be sold to owner-occupiers. The Tories need to get tough on buy-to-let housing if they are going to win over the current generation between 26-40. The starter homes initiative will help, but it needs to be on a massive scale to make a dent in dropping home ownership rates and to help generation rent get onto the housing ladder.
What it also does is introduce the principal of only taxing property assets that are deployed to return cash rather than those that do not return cash such as primary residences. Buy-to-let property is a liquid asset and introducing a 2-4% value tax on them with an exemption for new builds will change the housing market for the better.
Some people want and need to rent though, the attractiveness of buy to let depends on the yield it can garner in comparison to other investments as well as potential capital gains. Again addressing a symptom rather than the cause, namely mass immigration and too loose a monetary policy.
The disease is a chronic lack of housing, which allows wealthier buy-to-let investors use that to their advantage over a highly restricted supply. We need hundreds of thousands of new homes, not over the next parliament, but each year over the next parliament. House building rose 30% or something but needs to accelerated at that pace for another 3 years to match new demand, yet alone clear the backlog. Such is the need for political direction that the government might need to sponsor building on the level of a new town. Or do something radical with areas in the north where there is less of a shortage.
New towns are already being built, Mr. Grandiose. There is one for example going up next to Horsham in West Sussex (going to have a population around about 30K (no new major infrastructure to support such a population is being built of course). Planning permission is also being sought for a similar sized settlement in open countryside further south (again no proposals for new Infrastructure) and the strategic gap between Crawley and Horsham is being reduced to about 100 yards by building another new town. That is three new towns within 30 minutes drive of me. On top of that add in all the other smaller developments which are going up on every bit of land in or around just about every settlement in the county.
Where all the people are coming from to occupy all these new homes I don't know, but the idea that not enough building is going on is fanciful.
I'm from the Horsham area originally. Horrid isn't it?
"Long term UKIP giving Labour a kicking in Heywood & Middleton would do Labour a power of good. It might force the party to confront a bit of reality."
I'm not sure what good a good kicking would do. The can hardly start stealing UKIP's clothes and if a general raising of their game was possible I think they'd have tried it last week.
How so? Until relatively recently, Labour were in favour of withdrawal from the EEC.
Tyson, Roger and SouthamObserver, the A Team of PB leftists, have despaired of EdM. Will Labour react and remove the wrong'un ?
Is that what you personally want, Moniker?
If Labour are seven points ahead with the wrong'un, where would they be with the right'un?
I've seen poor Labour leaders before but EdM is in a category of his own. He's lost Labour Scotland and the rot is spreading fast into the English and Welsh heartlands.
Ok, let's grant that your assessment is correct in those respects.
Labour, under him, is seven points ahead. Where would it be under a better leader? What does it say about the other Parties?
Does anyone actually KNOW how many elderly ladies (or couples for that matter) who live in large London houses, but are so cash poor that they couldn’t pay increased rates. Even with Council Tax Relief?
I personally know a couple.
A retired bus driver and his kitchen assistant wife who bought a property many years ago, the 1960s.
Very ordinary people with a very ordinary family that had a stroke of luck because they bought a house. Ed Miliband wants to take it away from them. He doesn't like ordinary people getting lucky.
Isn't the £600,000 or so inheritance tax bill that will they will pay when they die, enough?
Still, at least the area will be "cleansed" of these ordinary people and a foreign investor, or maybe someone like Ed Miliband, will get their mitts on it.
It's a horrible horrible policy. Sure, a 2 million pound home is not going to affect that many people at the moment. But, once Labour start down this line you could see the cut-off reducing to 1.5m and then 1m. And with the way house prices have risen historically it's the very fact that one day the bogeyman might now come to get 'YOU' that is so pernicious.
One thing Maggie got spot on was that a lot of people in this country would like to own their own homes. Apart from the Blairites, Labour never got this and it's interesting to see Red Ed return to type.
Oh and as a by-product, this policy will also annoy some important figures in the media, which Labour seem to think doesn't matter. Nor do UKIP for that matter. Oh dear ...
Tyson, Roger and SouthamObserver, the A Team of PB leftists, have despaired of EdM. Will Labour react and remove the wrong'un ?
Is that what you personally want, Moniker?
If Labour are seven points ahead with the wrong'un, where would they be with the right'un?
I've seen poor Labour leaders before but EdM is in a category of his own. He's lost Labour Scotland and the rot is spreading fast into the English and Welsh heartlands.
Ok, let's grant that your assessment is correct in those respects.
Labour, under him, is seven points ahead. Where would it be under a better leader? What does it say about the other Parties?
Labour's current opinion poll lead is as convincing as Iain Grey's in Scotland prior to the 2011 Scottish elections. It's froth.
Tyson, Roger and SouthamObserver, the A Team of PB leftists, have despaired of EdM. Will Labour react and remove the wrong'un ?
Is that what you personally want, Moniker?
If Labour are seven points ahead with the wrong'un, where would they be with the right'un?
I've seen poor Labour leaders before but EdM is in a category of his own. He's lost Labour Scotland and the rot is spreading fast into the English and Welsh heartlands.
Ok, let's grant that your assessment is correct in those respects.
Labour, under him, is seven points ahead. Where would it be under a better leader? What does it say about the other Parties?
Labour's current opinion poll lead is as convincing as Iain Grey's in Scotland prior to the 2011 Scottish elections. It's froth.
OK, pick the lead you want, from whichever of the Opinion Polls you most favour, and answer the questions in accordance with that.
I remember when they built the horror that is Maidenbower in Crawley. A rabbit warren of cul-de-sacs and tiny boxes.
We've fought off about 6 major developments around Hailsham and Polegate - but still experienced some small developments. Again, the infrastructure just isn't keeping pace at all.
The Tories need to get ahead of the mansion tax and put a buy-to-let land value tax in place so capital is snip...
Some people want and need to rent though, the attractiveness of buy to let depends on the yield it can garner in comparison to other investments as well as potential capital gains. Again addressing a symptom rather than the cause, namely mass immigration and too loose a monetary policy.
The disease is a chronic lack of housing, which allows wealthier buy-to-let investors use that to their advantage over a highly restricted supply. We need hundreds of thousands of new homes, not over the next parliament, but each year over the next parliament. House building rose 30% or something but needs to accelerated at that pace for another 3 years to match new demand, yet alone clear the backlog. Such is the need for political direction that the government might need to sponsor building on the level of a new town. Or do something radical with areas in the north where there is less of a shortage.
New towns are already being built, Mr. Grandiose. There is one for example going up next to Horsham in West Sussex (going to have a population around about 30K (no new major infrastructure to support such a population is being built of course). Planning permission is also being sought for a similar sized settlement in open countryside further south (again no proposals for new Infrastructure) and the strategic gap between Crawley and Horsham is being reduced to about 100 yards by building another new town. That is three new towns within 30 minutes drive of me. On top of that add in all the other smaller developments which are going up on every bit of land in or around just about every settlement in the county.
Where all the people are coming from to occupy all these new homes I don't know, but the idea that not enough building is going on is fanciful.
I'm from the Horsham area originally. Horrid isn't it?
Tyson, Roger and SouthamObserver, the A Team of PB leftists, have despaired of EdM. Will Labour react and remove the wrong'un ?
Is that what you personally want, Moniker?
If Labour are seven points ahead with the wrong'un, where would they be with the right'un?
tyson said: I am seriously considering voting (or more apt lending Cameron my vote) Tory for the first time at the next GE- and this in a key Tory marginal. My reasoning is this- the next Parliament will be tough for whoever wins. Austerity on austerity. Cameron, for all his public school sense of entitlement, is actually not a bad leader and PM- and moderate for a Tory who are mostly off the radar nutters. And Ed- he is just so hopeless, that a sustained period with him as PM will lead Labour into political oblivion- this will all play into the hands of Boris Johnson and the fruitcakes.
So my mantra- vote Cameron, keep out Boris, and help sustain Labour as a political party in the long term once they despatch the hapless Ed. 2014 is a shitty election to win, so let the Tories shovel the shyte for another 5 years. OK- it might be a bit long for a political slogan, but it does have a good ring to it.
Well said Tyson. It's partly the horror of EdM as PM that makes me realise what a good PM Cameron is. He's a safe pair of hands, and I can't say that for any of the other leaders.
I remember when they built the horror that is Maidenbower in Crawley. A rabbit warren of cul-de-sacs and tiny boxes.
We've fought off about 6 major developments around Hailsham and Polegate - but still experienced some small developments. Again, the infrastructure just isn't keeping pace at all.
The Tories need to get ahead of the mansion tax and put a buy-to-let land value tax in place so capital is snip...
Some people want and need to rent though, the attractiveness of buy to let depends on the yield it can garner in comparison to other investments as well as potential capital gains. Again addressing a symptom rather than the cause, namely mass immigration and too loose a monetary policy.
The disease is a chronic lack of housing, which allows wealthier buy-to-let investors use that to their advantage over a highly restricted supply. We need hundreds of thousands of new homes, not over the next parliament, but each year over the next parliament. House building rose 30% or something but needs to accelerated at that pace for another 3 years to match new demand, yet alone clear the backlog. Such is the need for political direction that the government might need to sponsor building on the level of a new town. Or do something radical with areas in the north where there is less of a shortage.
New towns are already being built, Mr. Grandiose. There is one for example going up next to Horsham in West Sussex (going to have a population around about 30K (no new major infrastructure to support such a population is being built of course). Planning permission is also being sought for a similar sized settlement in open countryside further south (again no proposals for new Infrastructure) and the strategic gap between Crawley and Horsham is being reduced to about 100 yards by building another new town. That is three new towns within 30 minutes drive of me. On top of that add in all the other smaller developments which are going up on every bit of land in or around just about every settlement in the county.
Where all the people are coming from to occupy all these new homes I don't know, but the idea that not enough building is going on is fanciful.
I'm from the Horsham area originally. Horrid isn't it?
Dreadful to hear about Novartis going too. Wealth creation going, to be replaced by a sea of Berkeley Homes. It just can't be right.
No they have not virtually given up in the South of England , it is true that they are concentrating on a relatively small number of seats Hastings , Brighton and Hove , Dover and Crawley are examples .
Can't speak about Brighton or Hastings but they more or less given up in Dover
What utter drivel , look at the 2013 CC results for the districts making up the parliamentary seat , 3 Labour gains from Conservative .
Exactly what part of my post is "utter drivel"? As this is a betting site I'm happy to take any price I'm closer to the ground in Dover than anybody on this site.
The utter drivel was your statement that Labour had more or less given up in Dover and Deal . The 2013 results ( and those in 2011 ) show that that is false . The Conservatives may ot may not win next May but again I say that for you to try and mislead everyone by saying that Labour have given up on the seat is clear utter drivel .
Of course the 2014 Euro results had Labour trailing 19 points behind UKIP and 4 behind the Tories. For an area very dependent on its interaction with Europe that is a significant indictment!
Comments
1) discriminates against those with small families
2) I think you mean 'codger'. A 'todger' is another word for a tallywhacker, a wingwang, the one-eyed trouser snake etc etc.
I do still like to go home though. My family lived in the same part of London for a century or more and walking on Hampstead Heath - which is pretty much as it always was despite the huge changes all around it - I feel very close to them, which is a rather nice thing to feel.
Exactly what part of my post is "utter drivel"? As this is a betting site I'm happy to take any price I'm closer to the ground in Dover than anybody on this site.
1) Tough.
2) I could blame a typo but I suspect my mind was wandering.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 46m 46 minutes ago
Both Clacton, & Heywood & Middleton by-elections due to declare after 2am on Fri. Could Bickley beat Carswell to be Ukip's 1st elected MP?
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago
@caucasianjerry Complacency, complacency - the gift to insurgents throughout the ages
The most important bit I think is this:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick · 2h 2 hours ago
Sun poll on Heywood & Middleton by-election was conducted by Survation yesterday and today. Results at 10pm tonight. Much may hang on them.
So Survation polled completely after Cameron's speech. Unfortunately they didn't do a poll before just to see the reaction.
The disease is a chronic lack of housing, which allows wealthier buy-to-let investors use that to their advantage over a highly restricted supply. We need hundreds of thousands of new homes, not over the next parliament, but each year over the next parliament. House building rose 30% or something but needs to accelerated at that pace for another 3 years to match new demand, yet alone clear the backlog. Such is the need for political direction that the government might need to sponsor building on the level of a new town. Or do something radical with areas in the north where there is less of a shortage.
http://www.neighbourhood.statistics.gov.uk/HTMLDocs/dvc174/index.html
"Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell, particularly in terms on popularity in his own constituency, he twice lost elections in the predecessor seat to Rochester & Strood
The determination of the Tory party to win the by-election, predominantly because of the timing of Mark Reckless’ defection has annoyed the Tories no end.
The Tory conference and David Cameron’s speech is expected to see the Tory vote rise in the polls.
I expect we will see the “Go to bed with Nigel and wake up with Ed” meme tested to destruction here (to see if it works)"
I can't see a single factor in those mentioned above that might actually make the Tories more likely to win. I think you are confusing evidence with wishful thinking. Not good practice for a lawyer.
Surely the obvious thing for the cash poor living in a mansion is an equity release scheme? Indeed the mansion tax will be offset by loses on inheritance tax, as well as stamp duty on purchases.
To me the obvious thing is to only have one system of property tax, and to create some new bands at the top. Why run two parallel systems?
The utter drivel was your statement that Labour had more or less given up in Dover and Deal . The 2013 results ( and those in 2011 ) show that that is false .
The Conservatives may ot may not win next May but again I say that for you to try and mislead everyone by saying that Labour have given up on the seat is clear utter drivel .
"The determination of the Tory party to win the by-election, predominantly because of the timing of Mark Reckless’ defection has annoyed the Tories no end." - they are going to use election resources that could be spent elsewhere fighting this one, at the risk of a Pyrrhic victory.
The Conservatives may ot may not win next May but again I say that for you to try and mislead everyone by saying that Labour have given up on the seat is clear utter drivel .
As I suspected, you have little, if any, knowledge of what is going on within labour in Dover right now.
Turned out it was every car was effected, no matter how big or small – same goes for the so called ‘Mansions’ - some are just 3/4 bed-roomed family homes in the right part of London.
Where all the people are coming from to occupy all these new homes I don't know, but the idea that not enough building is going on is fanciful.
If Labour are seven points ahead with the wrong'un, where would they be with the right'un?
I can read annual accounts of constituency parties and note that in 2013 membership of Dover and Deal Conservative Association fell from 295 to 263 and is now below that of Dover and Deal Labour CA . Clearly you are one of the rapidly dwindling local Conservative membership and feeling more and more lonely you come on here and post drivel .
file under turnip.
What will Trotsky have to say about that? I hope your hound is still in fine fettle.
"Long term UKIP giving Labour a kicking in Heywood & Middleton would do Labour a power of good. It might force the party to confront a bit of reality."
I'm not sure what good a good kicking would do. The can hardly start stealing UKIP's clothes and if a general raising of their game was possible I think they'd have tried it last week.
Labour, under him, is seven points ahead. Where would it be under a better leader? What does it say about the other Parties?
One thing Maggie got spot on was that a lot of people in this country would like to own their own homes. Apart from the Blairites, Labour never got this and it's interesting to see Red Ed return to type.
Oh and as a by-product, this policy will also annoy some important figures in the media, which Labour seem to think doesn't matter. Nor do UKIP for that matter. Oh dear ...
I remember when they built the horror that is Maidenbower in Crawley. A rabbit warren of cul-de-sacs and tiny boxes.
We've fought off about 6 major developments around Hailsham and Polegate - but still experienced some small developments. Again, the infrastructure just isn't keeping pace at all.
Of course the 2014 Euro results had Labour trailing 19 points behind UKIP and 4 behind the Tories. For an area very dependent on its interaction with Europe that is a significant indictment!