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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories become the favourites in the Rochester by-electi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories become the favourites in the Rochester by-election
PaddyPower now make the Cons favourite to win the Rochester by-election. UKIP evens, CON 5/6
http://t.co/1j2fiIYXxK pic.twitter.com/mgbt8ZGZNA
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The only full post-referendum Scottish Westminster voting survey since the IndyRef was joint top Scottish pollster, Survation, for Mail on Sunday. It had:-
LAB 39
SNP 35
One challenge for the SNP, according to John Curtice, is this:-
"we should remember how few are the Westminster seats that are marginal between Labour and the SNP. There are no Labour seats in which the SNP will start off less than 10 points behind and only three in which the nationalists will begin less than 20 points behind. Unless and until the SNP begin to pull ahead of Labour in terms of the Scotland wide vote, their haul of current Labour seats is likely to be no more than a small one.
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/10/labour-worried/
Further thoughts:
1) Mark Reckless and UKIP obviously think that they can win. They wouldn't be doing this otherwise.
2) The Conservatives obviously think that they can win. They wouldn't be raising the stakes on this otherwise.
3) UKIP in the past have shown a shaky grasp of the ground game - in Newark they thought on the night that they'd run the Conservatives close but were in fact miles off the pace.
4) With the MP's local knowledge and any defecting Conservative activitsts, they should do better in Rochester & Strood on the ground game.
5) The Conservative ground game in Newark was outstanding. Given that Conservative danders are up over this defection in particular (settle down, Mr Newmark), I expect them to perform as well here and with even more motivated activists.
6) We have no polling.
7) Why have we heard pretty well nothing from Labour about a seat that they held in 2005?
1. Tories betting on what they want to happen
2. Analysts claiming Rochester + Strood isn't good demographically (Outside top 250 on UKIP friendly list)
3. The media narrative that people in his constituency aren't happy, cancelled walkabouts etc.
8) We don't know who the Conservative candidate will be.
Lose - Look like an utter chump, and lose face.
Farage is a big old scaredy cat anyway.
"So yes, in a sense, David Cameron is pursuing a core vote strategy. It’s just that his core vote consists of just about every voter in the country. Ed Miliband’s core vote revolves around of a bunch of disaffected Lib Dems, students and 2005 Iraq war refuseniks. Now remind me, who is that is supposed to be preaching the politics of One Nation?"
"Ed Miliband sees his core vote as consisting of the 550,000 people affected by the Bedroom Tax. David Cameron’s “core vote” is the 5 million tax payers trapped in the 40p tax bracket. Ed Miliband is pitching his appeal at the 900,000 people claiming job seekers allowance. David Cameron is pitching to the 30 million people in work. Ed Miliband is reaching out to the 44 per cent of 18-24 year olds that sometimes go out to vote. David Cameron is embracing the 70 per cent of voters over the age of 55 who religiously do their civic duty. "
That's 21,000 leftish votes. In 2010.
If labour are doing as well nationally as Yougov suggests, shouldn;t they be thinking about winning?
And yet this is being treated like a two horse race
It just highlighted the gulf between the two that's opening up. @DavidL noted that Labour still had a lead of 7pts last night. I think the opening salvos from Cameron will start to change the game as we get closer to May.
It's clearly far too early for the polls to show anything much or sustainable - however, I think Mr Hodges has put his finger right on it about the Tory's ambitions to annex large sections of the electorate for themselves. There's are no No Go zones.
It's exactly the kind of seat they should win if the right wing split. (unless there are some boundary changes that make comparison difficult)
As he said in closing,
I've got as much right as the Farage Party to take part in a debate.
My understanding is that same will apply in Rochester. The lack of ambition is amazing.
An excuse for when they lose?
Or just apathetic?
So much for One Nation.
Just heard that The Sun are publishing poll on Heywood & Middleton. Result out this evening
http://www.poetryfoundation.org/poem/173744
Tories now favourite to win Rochester by-election – *this* would be the beginning of the end for UKIP http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/10/02/the-tories-become-the-favourites-in-the-rochester-by-election/ …
A life-size replica of Sir Cliff Richard is being used as a security measure by a couple in Norfolk.
David Stolworthy said the model was put in his wife's car to make her feel less vulnerable when travelling alone at night.
But the dummy also heads out regularly with the family - even joining them on continental holidays.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-29458666
Labour is giving UKiP a free reign in the hope of damaging the Tories.
Labour fears being beaten by UKiP, with the subsequent loss of face.
Labour has become complacent and don’t feel the need to engage unless they can win.
As you say, it it most odd behaviour from the Opposition party..
Cameron needs to win back the soft Kippers, and he may have gone some way to starting that with his speech, whereas none of the Labour>UKIP switchers will move back to Labour, particularly given the reasons mentioned.
edit: is it me or does that Cliff doll look more like early Bowie?
probably the only point of resemblance....
Are they simply flying above the fray as it's expensive and loss of face would be more costly as well? Leave the Kippers and Tories to waste their money/take chunks out of each other and save your dosh for the Big One?
UKIP aren't going to go into coalition with Labour.
Now, I hadn't thought of that combination. But then who would have thought that the LibDems would go into coalition with the Tories.
Seriously though, who would a largest party Labour go into coalition with?
SNP ?
LibDems ?
NI Unionists ?
Tories?
OK, so they're more likely to govern as a minority, but what happens if the same result repeats ten months later? Someone has to govern.
http://postimg.org/image/4w3p3ap13/
Particularly given he has such a 'woman problem'?
The Guardian on Heywood and Middleton.
Con 23% (30%)
Lab 19% (14.5%)
LD 4% (9%)
Green 6% (7%)
UKIP 42% (21.5%)
And the average Labour lead is something under 4. Fine by me, as it is electorally neither here nor there but gives rise to this moronic drone from the left which is strangely soothing, like bees in summer.
The Tories are losing. But they have a chance. I am not sure I can say the same about the Lib Dems. Are you going to the Conference?
That was by and large the implication of that article I thought. Bickley himself admitted winning over life long labour voters is difficult.
The poll lead persisted right up to the point where the punters actually contemplated this choice.
Scottish Opinion Poll (Panelbase) Westminster:
SNP - 34%
LAB - 32%
CON - 18%
UKIP - 6%
LDEM - 5%
Moronic na na nanana, look what happens if i baxter this poll, chanting seems to be the very peak of lefty thinking on this site these days. Bring back tim.
So we might see odd bedfellows again Labour + SNP (if they do spectacularly well against Labour in Scotland).
With Sittingbourne & Sheppey, Gravesend and Dartford surrounding the seats all showing similar trends, It's little wonder the Tories are 'angry' about the Reckless defection. The idea that North Kent might turn purple can't be a pleasant prospect.
I'm surprised that the Sun did a poll on Heywood, I expect an easy Labour hold, but if that is not the case then Simon Danczuk will have his career in the Labour party ruined.
Holyrood is SNP 42, Lab 27, Tory 16, Green 9, UKIP 5, LD 5
SNP - 34%
LAB - 32%
Sell beards and sandals, buy kilts.
w/e 17th Aug: 3.0%
w/e 24th Aug: 3.6%
w/e 31st Aug: 3.8%
w/e 7th Sep: 3.3%
w/e 14th Sep: 4.6%
w/e 21st Sep: 3.6%
w/e 28th Sep: 4.4%
so far this week: 4.6% (NB. only 6 polls so far!)
They key thing is that even if this is the support levels what it means is that SNP most of the Lib Dem seats but the Labour seats remain mostly untouched. Unless there is something apocalyptic in the geographic distribution of these number the majority of Labour seats in Scotland are super safe. Glasgow North East - which was one of the highest voting Yes areas was almost 70% Labour vote share at the last election - a majority of 16,000. Even 15 point swings in the Glasgow vote to SNP wouldn't be enough in most cases.
Freedom 34%
It seems Labour have recovered in urban seats, particularly London, and the North. But there's not much sign of progress in the middle England marginals.
A big risk for Labour next year is getting their vote out. If enough of them are dillusioned and think Ed is crap, they might not all bother.
SNP - 19.9%
LAB - 42.0%
CON - 16.7%
UKIP - Lost in the noise
LDEM - 18.9%
Westminster Scottish seats following Panelbase poll:
LAB - 34 (-7)
SNP - 18 (+12)
LDEM - 4 (-7)
CON - 3 (+2)
Holyrood composition following Panelbase polls:
SNP - 61 (-8)
LAB - 35 (-2)
CON - 19 (+4)
GRN - 9 (+7)
LDEM - 4 (-1)
In a narrow sense, of course, they are right. But as a party that aspires to be in government they are sending absolutely the wrong message about their ability to compete nationwide.
I suspect that Miliband is tactically smart and strategically foolish.
For those on defector watch, Stewart Jackson (MP, formerly of this parish) just tweeted:
"Anyone care what Nick Clegg thinks? Lib Dem conference like a death cult next week. Kharma for ratting on boundaries"
Good luck to Ed Miliband in making 75 gains in England and Wales.