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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September’s pbc poll average: UKIP recovers ground, Lab and
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » September’s pbc poll average: UKIP recovers ground, Lab and LD down, Cons steady
September might have been one of the most dramatic months in British politics since the last general election, with the near-dissolution of the three-centuries old Anglo-Scottish Union but you wouldn’t know it from the polls. That the Yes and No camps crossed party lines and brought opponents together might have had something to do with it; more likely, it’s that the majority of the UK elec…
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Or Scotland, where there does appear to have been a shift to the SNP?
http://news.sky.com/gallery/1345840/thursdays-newspaper-front-pages
Lab: 23 (-11)
SNP: 43 (+9)
You're right that the Lib Dems have done very very poorly in by-elections in this parliament (Eastleigh aside, though that is a significant exception), and this might well be the case in the GE in seats where they have little organisation. The thing is, that alone can't produce the kind of polling we've seen in September: they'd have to be doing reasonably poorly in seats where they are strong as well. Of course, it may be that the polls are wrong. We'll see.
30 23 28 27 29 33 28 28 Yougov post ref Labour average 28%
33 43 44 43 45 38 38 40 Yougov post ref SNP average 40%
011014
Con 21
Lab 30
LD 8
SNP 33
300914
Con 17
Lab 23
LD 5
SNP 43
290914
Con 13
Lab 28
LD 7
SNP 44
260914
Con 18
Lab 27
LD 6
SNP 43
250914
Con 17
Lab 29
LD 3
SNP 45
240914
Con 16
Lab 33
LD 5
SNP 38
230914
Con 19
Lab 28
LD 6
SNP 38
220914
Con 17
Lab 28
LD 8
SNP 40
Sig. Events: Salmond resigns, No wins
210914 - Fieldwork before Indy Ref (18-19th, archived as http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wpbxyfjd7p/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140919.pdf)
180914
Con 18
Lab 35
LD 8
SNP 29
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YBumQHPAeU&app=desktop
"Amazingly good headlines for Cameron and the Conservatives this morning. Reports of the Tory death have been greatly exaggerated."
Good headlines from dismal newspapers count for nothing but you raise the interesting subject of the death of the Tory Party. Will the predicted election defeat next year lead to the disintegration of the party in its present present form? I suspect it will.....
Like it or not 'nasty' and 'Tory' have become synonymous and it seems there just aren't enough voters who think of themselves like that to push the party over the line. As I've often said re branding has to start with the name. In much the same way as a piece of Ratners jewelry says CHEAP so an X against Tory says NASTY.
Ironic when a much nastier party seem to be overtaking on the outside but that's why the corporate identity departments earn the big bucks.
But why is it that the by-elections have been in Labour seats, and mainly safe Labour seats at that ?
It looks as though, more than any other party, Labour MPs ran into problems with the law (Woolas, Illsley, MacShane), found the lure of becoming a Police Commissioner irresistible (Soulsby, Lloyd, Michaael), and died in post (Cairns, Keen, Singh, Wicks, Bell, Goggins, Dobbin).
Is it bad it is for your health to be a Labour MP ?
The average age of Labour MPs is 52, versus 48 for Tories. But, if you look at safe Labour seats, is the average age still higher? Do safe Labour seats typically become occupied by someone until death?
It is also striking that the Tory by-elections have all been caused by self-inflicted resignations, Mensch, Mercer, and now Carswell and Reckless.
Tories on a roll in Scotland! Maybe they'll outnumber the pandas after May?
It's there again....higher than average LD-LAB switchers, higher AB score, higher score in London/South. Every 5th or 6th poll.
On a straightforward ratio analysis of Current VI;2010 VI from the YG sample, the lead would be 4 ( L 37 C 33)
Lab Avg 31%
SNP Avg 32%
Lab 29 35 31 32 29 31 35 29
SNP 34 31 34 33 32 28 29 31
210914 - Fieldwork before Indy Ref (18-19th, archived as http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wpbxyfjd7p/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-140919.pdf)
Con 23
Lab 29
LD 5
SNP 31
180914
Con 18
Lab 35
LD 8
SNP 29
170914
Con 21
Lab 31
LD 7
SNP 28
160914
Con 22
Lab 29
LD 7
SNP 32
150914
Con 13
Lab 32
LD 7
SNP 33
140914
Con 17
Lab 31
LD 5
SNP 34
120914
Not archived properly
100914
Con 19
Lab 35
LD 6
SNP 31
090914
Con 20
Lab 29
LD 7
SNP 34
The patients who are at most risk of this are those with multiple long term conditions, and often without family support. Imagine a housebound patient with arthritis, diabetes and heart failure who is getting early dementia. They get an infection that trips them into a confusional state and poor diabetic control.
Such patients are at high risk of admission but could be managed in the community, if resources are available. These would include District Nurses visiting several times a day, a GP home visit most days and avalaibility of investigations and blood tests outside office hours and access to medical records. It takes a lot of organising and co-ordinating, not a quick trip to pick up some tablets in Tescos GP practice from Dr Locumescu.
That said I personally do not like the presentation when combined with the cuts in real terms in benefits. We may yet see more cuts in benefits, in fact we will have to. I would urge the government to make sure these are more aimed at the higher paid recipients. In work benefits for those earning more than £40K a year is a very obvious starting point. In fact every household who receive more than average wages should feel the pain ahead of those that don't.
I also note there is no repeat of the foolish promise for the freebies for the elderly. All of these have to be means tested PDQ.
My fear is that, like the 50p tax cut, the Tories have given Labour a get out of jail free card for irresponsible spending. When this is criticised they will simply say, well we think spending on X is more important than tax cuts.
Lab 42%
SNP 20%
Next piece of the jigsaw is to look at how accurate Yougov was for the 2010 GE (In Scotland) based on it's previous 8 subsamples...
Also the next 8 Scottish subsamples will be instructive to see if the SNP surge is maintained in the short term let alone to the General Election.
Preliminary analysis indicates a 5.5% Lab -> SNP swing based upon the NO vote in the Indy ref for now.
2010: 24%
2011: 16%
2012: 15%
2013: 13%
2014: 11%
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/RP14-33/local-elections-2014
Presumably France is "isolating" itself from the EU and acting like a bad European, and that will mean France will never get its way in future EU debates...
Either that or there's a huge double standard in the EU.
Even so there will be lots of angst about new bedroom taxes. In any change in be efits the loses cry louder than the winners. We hear from the single person forced out of their 3 bed house that they have had for years, but not from the young family that move in as a result.
There are going to be some very harsh budgets before these tax changes occur, and probably need to be. The economy is now growing but there will be a downturn in time, maybe 2 years, maybe 8, but it will come. We cannot afford not to fix the nations finances in the next few years.
Are you sure - they polled 16.7% in Scotland last time
Post Indy Ref "After 8" moving average
Con 17%
LD 6%
Lab 28%
SNP 40%
16.7% -> 17% ... hmm
I'll Baxter it then edit this posts with the results
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_379083.pdf
In the last four quarters the UK has run a balance of payments deficit of over £90bn.
What is especially worrying is that we are now running a huge and steadily increasing deficit on investment income - an area where the UK has traditionally had a surplus.
Those foreign takeovers of British businesses which are so applauded aren't such a good thing if the wealth is then taken out of this country are they.
And this government's big economic idea is to give the magic money tree another shaking.
The quiet from LibDem activists is intriguing. I'd like to put forward another thought. Most of those activists that would be busy organising a coup have left. I'd be interested to see the current membership numbers for Liberals and the churn since 2010. My extended family has long contained a few LibDem members and anecdotally it seems the social-liberal members have left the party in disgust at the Coalition and all its works.
Yes, although they also offer some support for Lib Dem support holding up better in strongholds. OTOH, the Scottish elections in 2011 saw the Lib Dems reach a tipping point, and lose 9 out of 11 constituencies.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100288458/does-anyone-think-that-ed-miliband-would-be-the-better-prime-minister-anyone-at-all/
Give the boy his due.
And of course children have a dedicated carer or two available all the time.
SNP 39 seats !!
Lab 16
Con 3 - including Gain of Dumfries and Galloway - Tipped up by Stuart Dickson @ 25-1 !
LD Hold 1 (Orkney and Shetland)
Doubt the results will be quite as dramatic as that but I think Scotland (For decades as volatile as cold porridge) WILL be the most exciting region wrt changes come election night.
Where's my pension gone to ?? Brown stole my pension and only gave me 90% of it back.
1) How many other companies have had polls in Scotland since INDYREF?
2) There does appear to be a trend in the YouGov sub sample - albeit today back to 30:33!
They cant, they are not allowed to 90% it is if the scheme is bust as was mine.
This is the bread and butter of General Practice. It is why the GP is not there between morning and evening surgeries. But it is what is needed if in Leicester we close the 460 beds earmarked for closure.
It is demanding work with few thanks attached, and a lot of professional risk. It is why GPs retire early and are difficult to recruit.
There was a time when Scottish subsamples were banned on PB. Maybe we should introduce that rule again.
Sturgeon is if anything to the left of Salmond, and he'd have never have contemplated even a C&S arrangement to keep Dave in power.
The most the SNP will give is C&S to Labour I reckon but that would come with a metric TONNE of conditions and probably a 10% chance or so (If the numbers fit) ?
And another of Ed's foxes shot. What are the Trade Unions spending all that money for on propping up Labour, if the Tories will deliver them a key goal for free?
It's compounded, at least in my inner London surgery, by an almost complete mismatch of the ethnic groups of the doctors, nurses and other staff on the one hand and the patients using the surgery on the other.
With 10 of the 2010 LD MPs not standing again, we may see a few more changing their mind and retiring. Fewer incumbents.
http://tinyurl.com/la7ht6w
I suppose some Lefties will come along and claim those aren't propah real jobs.
F1: turns out my comment about paying attention to the weather in Japan was wise. A typhoon might stop the race taking place:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29455024
To some extent that reflects what each party has to prove. Labour needs to persuade people that we're not mad spenders. The Tories need to persuade people that they'll get something out of economic recovery. But having caught up with Cameron's speech on News at Ten last night it seemed to me alternately implausible (trust me on defeating Europe, look at my record - er, yes Dave, you only lost 2-26 on Juncker), reactionary (knock people on benefits to give £1500 to people on £50K) and completely at odds in tone with the "deficit first" message on Monday. I'm sure the press enthusiasm will help in the polls, but the internal inconsistencies will make it difficult to maintain.
Also, although perhaps I was half asleep, someone seemed to be blaming the UK cutting foreign aid for the outbreak of Ebola in Sierra Leone.
I mean do they write this stuff especially for Nige?
So, that could explain why his second reign is already potentially nearing the end.
Whilst spending 6 or 7 hours at my leisure there - one has plenty of time to watch the passing trade. In Eastbourne DGH, I think I spotted or ended up in conservation with about 20 who were also waiting. I'd suggest that all of them had perfectly treatable-by-their-GP ailments or what used to be cottage hospitals. Minor cuts, a minorish dog bite or five, an infected cut, a DIY injury, a nasty case of irritable bowel, a back spasm etc. It seemed like a complete waste of very expensive time for us to be there clogging up the works.
I can't see how using A&E to do the work that GPs can makes any sense. None of the people I talked to seemed to want to be there either and would've preferred to see their GP or go somewhere less overloaded where they didn't feel like a burden/stupid. On the basis that We Wouldn't Start From Here - perhaps someone who's worked in A&E could suggest something here?
...Sure there were some drunk/off their meds psychiatric patients who were a complete handful - but they were in the minority. A number came in as traffic accident casualties or with a broken limb. Ditto confused old person who'd fallen over or collapsed. And a fair few that looked like heart attacks or something very urgent. These are the A&E types I expected to see - not so much the rest. What I didn't see even very often were fighting injuries. Maybe those guys are too hard to go to A&E unless they're a real mess!
"Labour's commitments are nearly all at the expense of someone other than the taxpayer... electricity companies to freeze prices."
You're kidding right!? Is this really the depth of thinking that exists in the Labour party about this?
We have huge needs for energy investment to meet future projected demand (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/305860/DECC_Energy_investment_report_Web_Final.pdf)
This is on the current regulatory requirements. On top of this, Miliband has committed to an incredibly ambitious 100% renewables target in just 15 years:
(http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/nov/22/ed-miliband-labour-decarbonisation-energy)
And the energy companies won't be allowed to raise bills for the first five years of that. Keep in mind that as you close in on 100%, it gets increasingly expensive to get each extra percent of renewables because all the cheap and moderate options have been fully exploited. You're not only decommissioning all the coal power plants, but all the gas-run ones too. And we can't use the shale gas either.
How on Earth are the electricity companies to pay for to meet this demand and these commitments without more revenue? The blindingly obvious answer is that they won't. The government will have to step in with a massive bailout. This will be a huge explosion of the deficit.
Do Labour people not think about these things? Do they just think "well energy companies are rich, we can just milk them for all our needs"? Is there no second-order thinking at all?
I guess that explains how such a terrible policy managed to get through.
On the broader point, IF the trend in the YOUGOV in Scotland is replicated in a weighted poll and the SNP did do well in Westminster, how would a Labour C&S work, unless the SNP were to renounce their current practice of EVEL?
how can you unpick a century of your history ? it's what you do.
The guy's a twunt.
I'm amazed that anything thought that sort of restriction of trade was legal in the first place. I've no problem with Zero Hour contracts otherwise - they can be a very useful way to fill up awkward shifts etc. It's just temping by another name without using an agency middleman.
An English parliament is the answer.
Angus, Moray and Perthshire, we salute you.
It's an I'll Agree With You So You Go Away.