So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Second Officer: Steiner forgot to mention the deficit.
According to Labour spin bot on here the deficit doesn't matter.
borrow baby borrow (until the IMF arrive)
How is deficit reduction going?
Labour's cheerleader on here says who cares about the deficit, which could be a worry for your beloved NHS.
The deficit reduction is miles off Plan A and now well behind Plan B though isnt it.
The biggest worry for my beloved NHS is another Tory Government IMO
Why is the NHS a national monument to be celebrated ect ect? I can't understand, a hospital is a hospital, not mt.Rushmore or Christmas.
It is a fantastically efficient health provider with great outcomes and no matter how poor you are you can afford great healthcare.
Wont survive 5 more years of Tory policies in a recognisable form IMO
Will NHS Wales survive any more Labour cuts?
You are so blinkered it is pathetic.
You are in a massive minority if you do not love the NHS. Is it because it has some briliant Muslim Doctors and that doesnt fit with your pathetic multiculturism is always bad views
So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Welsh Government draft budget: Overall funding falls by 10%... but there's £425m extra for the NHS.
No money for the Eiffel Tower
What about the 8% cut they suffered under Labour? How is it performing, waiting lists etc
All going in the right direction recently I believe unlike in England.
I have said before the NHS is more important to me than LAB and almost everything else. The Tories are not trusted whether or not you like it. As for UKIP well policies on NHS all over the place.
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Yes, quite apart from tying up money for eight months, these constituency bets are related contingencies so you do always worry about a game-changing event. That's why the >5 or >6 seat markets are so attractive. You can hedge them, and chances are you can run a green book, as I have done on Betfair.
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
How's the current field shaping up do we know?
It's unclear, but a bit more sensible than the 2012 circus.
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
Second Officer: Steiner forgot to mention the deficit.
According to Labour spin bot on here the deficit doesn't matter.
borrow baby borrow (until the IMF arrive)
How is deficit reduction going?
Labour's cheerleader on here says who cares about the deficit, which could be a worry for your beloved NHS.
The deficit reduction is miles off Plan A and now well behind Plan B though isnt it.
The biggest worry for my beloved NHS is another Tory Government IMO
Why is the NHS a national monument to be celebrated ect ect? I can't understand, a hospital is a hospital, not mt.Rushmore or Christmas.
It is a fantastically efficient health provider with great outcomes and no matter how poor you are you can afford great healthcare.
Wont survive 5 more years of Tory policies in a recognisable form IMO
Will NHS Wales survive any more Labour cuts?
You are so blinkered it is pathetic.
You are in a massive minority if you do not love the NHS. Is it because it has some briliant Muslim Doctors and that doesnt fit with your pathetic multiculturism is always bad views
Voters know in whose hands the NHS is safe
I do not know how it is possible to 'love' a government department, but I get what you mean. If you have never lived or spent an extended period of time outside the UK having experience with another health system, then you have nothing to compare it with.
The NHS needs to be judged against other countries health operations to come up with an informed opinion as to which is better.
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
How's the current field shaping up do we know?
It's between Huckabee, Paul and Bush.
What odds will you give me that it won't be any of the three?
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
How's the current field shaping up do we know?
It's between Huckabee, Paul and Bush.
Huckabee is on record as being 'serious' about a 2016 run.
He has a popular weekly TV show, so he has a cushy number - as soon as he announces that's gone.
The whole thing was just astonishing. These guys were bidding for the biggest job on earth, and were taken seriously, yet in comparison they make even Ed Miliband look like a colossus.
NO NO NO NO NO. That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
To be fair, the competition was Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Newt Gringich, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann, and Tim Pawlenty. Oh, and a few no-hopers.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
How's the current field shaping up do we know?
It's between Huckabee, Paul and Bush.
What odds will you give me that it won't be any of the three?
It's difficult to tell, as it's still not certain they will run, Bush in particular. However at this moment they are the frontrunners. Before you take any decision take into account the calendar of the GOP race.
So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Yes, quite apart from tying up money for eight months, these constituency bets are related contingencies so you do always worry about a game-changing event. That's why the >5 or >6 seat markets are so attractive. You can hedge them, and chances are you can run a green book, as I have done on Betfair.
One seat I have backed UKIP in that is safe Labour until now is Telford.. Got 25/1 although its still 20/1
The whole thing was just astonishing. These guys were bidding for the biggest job on earth, and were taken seriously, yet in comparison they make even Ed Miliband look like a colossus.
Herman is on WSB radio in Atlanta for 3 hours on weekday mornings. So far I've resisted the temptation....
The whole thing was just astonishing. These guys were bidding for the biggest job on earth, and were taken seriously, yet in comparison they make even Ed Miliband look like a colossus.
Herman is on WSB radio in Atlanta for 3 hours on weekday mornings. So far I've resisted the temptation....
3 hours of Herman? Wow, you yanks go for big portions!
The whole thing was just astonishing. These guys were bidding for the biggest job on earth, and were taken seriously, yet in comparison they make even Ed Miliband look like a colossus.
That is the problem with staying too long in power, the GOP had the white house for 12 years, as a result they were really short of presidential material in the 90's, so they ended up with Bush Jr, who made the shortage even more severe.
Any party who stays too long in power suffers from a lack of talent once in opposition due to heavyweights being burned and ageing and becoming yesterdays men, while the oxygen of power and publicity goes to only the man in the highest office.
Look at the Democrats today, after Hillary they have no one, Obama sucks all the publicity while the Republicans have build half a dozen heavyweights.
So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Yes, quite apart from tying up money for eight months, these constituency bets are related contingencies so you do always worry about a game-changing event. That's why the >5 or >6 seat markets are so attractive. You can hedge them, and chances are you can run a green book, as I have done on Betfair.
One seat I have backed UKIP in that is safe Labour until now is Telford.. Got 25/1 although its still 20/1
Bad bet?
Not at all. But you reckon it beats the pony I got on Cleethorpes at 33/1?
I reckon I'm in with a squeak. [Stan James is the lucky bookie holding my money.]
The whole thing was just astonishing. These guys were bidding for the biggest job on earth, and were taken seriously, yet in comparison they make even Ed Miliband look like a colossus.
That is the problem with staying too long in power, the GOP had the white house for 12 years, as a result they were really short of presidential material in the 90's, so they ended up with Bush Jr, who made the shortage even more severe.
Any party who stays too long in power suffers from a lack of talent once in opposition due to heavyweights being burned and ageing and becoming yesterdays men, while the oxygen of power and publicity goes to only the man in the highest office.
Look at the Democrats today, after Hillary they have no one, Obama sucks all the publicity while the Republicans have build half a dozen heavyweights.
That's not true at all. O'Malley, Gillibrand, Cuomo, Hickenlooper, Warren, Warner, Kaine - all would be taken seriously in the absence of a Clinton run.
The GOP's problem was not that they spent too long in power. It's that the right-wing media - talk radio and Fox - have been such propaganda outlets that Republicans are out of touch with reality.
Christie is also by no means out of it and Cruz won a recent 'Values Voters' poll
Cruz is too extreme, even McCain would vote for Paul just to prevent Cruz from winning. Christie has other problems too, not just the legal stuff, New Jersey is collapsing under his watch, pensions, jobs, crime, deficit, you name it.
As I said months ago, Christie's biggest weakness is his appalling record as governor. New Jersey is going bankrupt with a huge pension problem that he said he had fixed it. Also closer to us, he's not a fan of betting:
Second Officer: Steiner forgot to mention the deficit.
According to Labour spin bot on here the deficit doesn't matter.
borrow baby borrow (until the IMF arrive)
How is deficit reduction going?
Labour's cheerleader on here says who cares about the deficit, which could be a worry for your beloved NHS.
The deficit reduction is miles off Plan A and now well behind Plan B though isnt it.
The biggest worry for my beloved NHS is another Tory Government IMO
Why is the NHS a national monument to be celebrated ect ect? I can't understand, a hospital is a hospital, not mt.Rushmore or Christmas.
It is a fantastically efficient health provider with great outcomes and no matter how poor you are you can afford great healthcare.
Wont survive 5 more years of Tory policies in a recognisable form IMO
Stafford.
Bits of the NHS are great. A lot of it is Third World.
Carry on worshipping it if you like - strange religion.
Not sure what you mean it has fantastic outcomes and is significantly cheaper than most of its counterparts. Whats not to like.
The really crap bits, and the staff who think it exists for their benefit.
I've used health services in quite a few other countries, and compared to them, the level of care here isn't that special.
Anyone that has used healthcare in other developed countries knows the NHS is a pretty three star thing by comparison.
More Motel 6 than Ritz Carlton?
I've used health care in France, Spain, Canada and the US. All were far superior to the NHS.
Obamacare is the exception. So few doctors and hospitals are in its network that it is inferior, though probably not to the NHS.
I believe the vast majority of those with plans on the healthcare exchanges prefer it to their previous plan, but I don't have the patience at this hour to find the survey.
The whole thing was just astonishing. These guys were bidding for the biggest job on earth, and were taken seriously, yet in comparison they make even Ed Miliband look like a colossus.
Herman is on WSB radio in Atlanta for 3 hours on weekday mornings. So far I've resisted the temptation....
3 hours of Herman? Wow, you yanks go for big portions!
3 to 4 hours is the usual length of talk radio shows. Even Rush does 3 hours a day.
Look at the Democrats today, after Hillary they have no one, Obama sucks all the publicity while the Republicans have build half a dozen heavyweights.
Not sure that's right. They've got several reasonably credible contenders (for example Martin O'Malley, Elizabeth Warren, Kisten Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo), and there's plenty of time (if Hillary does run and win) for others to establish a position.
To be fair, over the same timescale the GOP also has time to produce some more serious candidates. It's 2016 which is the problem for them.
It is hard to see that genie going back in the bottle.
Particularly if the protests spread elsewhere.
The Americans are going to mess with China, just after Russia, bad move. Why is it that the State Department always wants a fight, they still haven't lifted the sanctions from Tienanmen Square.
So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Yes, quite apart from tying up money for eight months, these constituency bets are related contingencies so you do always worry about a game-changing event. That's why the >5 or >6 seat markets are so attractive. You can hedge them, and chances are you can run a green book, as I have done on Betfair.
One seat I have backed UKIP in that is safe Labour until now is Telford.. Got 25/1 although its still 20/1
Bad bet?
Not at all. But you reckon it beats the pony I got on Cleethorpes at 33/1?
I reckon I'm in with a squeak. [Stan James is the lucky bookie holding my money.]
Cleethorpes seems much more likely on current odds, well done
Stan James kind of put em up then ran off... anyway, here's to some more rickets nearer election time
Speedy The GOP base would likely narrowly prefer Cruz to Paul, but if the conservatives split between Cruz and Paul, who will also take libertarians, Christie could still win as Romney did as a moderate facing a divided conservative opposition
It is hard to see that genie going back in the bottle.
Particularly if the protests spread elsewhere.
The Americans are going to mess with China, just after Russia, bad move. Why is it that the State Department always wants a fight, they still haven't lifted the sanctions from Tienanmen Square.
It looks pretty spontaneous on the part of young Hong Kongers to me.
Imagine what China could achieve if it were more democratic, or how wrong it could go if the PLA do a Tianamen again.
This has potential to be much bigger than the arab spring.
Look at the Democrats today, after Hillary they have no one, Obama sucks all the publicity while the Republicans have build half a dozen heavyweights.
Not sure that's right. They've got several reasonably credible contenders (for example Martin O'Malley, Elizabeth Warren, Kisten Gillibrand, Andrew Cuomo), and there's plenty of time (if Hillary does run and win) for others to establish a position.
To be fair, over the same timescale the GOP also has time to produce some more serious candidates. It's 2016 which is the problem for them.
All those democrats you mentioned are completely unknown to the public and will remain that way once Hillary is in office, they wont even have the chance to formulate policy or the party agenda as that is the privilege of the President.
For 2016 the republicans are OK, they beat any other democrat than Hillary, and that's because of Hillary's gender. By 2020 the novelty of first female president would be worn out, add in a recession that is likely to occur by then, and the republicans will beat her.
So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Yes, quite apart from tying up money for eight months, these constituency bets are related contingencies so you do always worry about a game-changing event. That's why the >5 or >6 seat markets are so attractive. You can hedge them, and chances are you can run a green book, as I have done on Betfair.
One seat I have backed UKIP in that is safe Labour until now is Telford.. Got 25/1 although its still 20/1
Bad bet?
Not at all. But you reckon it beats the pony I got on Cleethorpes at 33/1?
I reckon I'm in with a squeak. [Stan James is the lucky bookie holding my money.]
Cleethorpes seems much more likely on current odds, well done
Stan James kind of put em up then ran off... anyway, here's to some more rickets nearer election time
Stan James was a hoot.
They started putting up the constituencies in alphabetical order. As they did so, a number of PB regulars were picking off the ricks. There were quite a few, Cleethorpes being one. When they got down to Eastleigh, they stopped. Then they wiped the board and have not been seen since.
Perhaps a supervisor spotted what was happening and stepped in before it got out of hand.
Basildon & Billericay 12/1.. John Baron's alikely defector so could be good value
How's this for the worst value piss take bet ever?
Will Hill go 7/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton....
and 11/2 the double with Clacton!!!!
Walsall North. The latest constituency poll there had : LAB 37, UKIP 30, CON 21, LD 8
And yet the odds are : LAB 2/7, CON 7/2, UKIP 8/1 with Ladbrokes. LAB 1/7, CON 5/1, UKIP 10/1 with Paddypower.
Thats one on my hit list.. I noted Ladbrokes were 16/1 when I made the list, but didn't back it.. value missed!
I cant work out why S Basildon & East Thurrock is so much bigger than Thurrock.. the Euro results were v similar, if anything they were better in SB&ET
4/1 still available there. The UKIP candidate is a councillor called Kerry Smith
It is hard to see that genie going back in the bottle.
Particularly if the protests spread elsewhere.
The Americans are going to mess with China, just after Russia, bad move. Why is it that the State Department always wants a fight, they still haven't lifted the sanctions from Tienanmen Square.
It looks pretty spontaneous on the part of young Hong Kongers to me.
Imagine what China could achieve if it were more democratic, or how wrong it could go if the PLA do a Tianamen again.
This has potential to be much bigger than the arab spring.
Thi
Imagine the damage to the world if China goes arab spring, we can just contain the damage it did in the middle east. Just think, the world's largest economy implodes into civil war.
So, if I understood Lord Ashcroft correctly, looks like UKIP have Thurrock and Thanet South. He hasn't looked at Clacton or Rochester, but we can probably give them one if not two of them. Survation puts UKIP miles clear in Boston, and level in North Thanet.
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Yes, quite apart from tying up money for eight months, these constituency bets are related contingencies so you do always worry about a game-changing event. That's why the >5 or >6 seat markets are so attractive. You can hedge them, and chances are you can run a green book, as I have done on Betfair.
One seat I have backed UKIP in that is safe Labour until now is Telford.. Got 25/1 although its still 20/1
Bad bet?
Not at all. But you reckon it beats the pony I got on Cleethorpes at 33/1?
I reckon I'm in with a squeak. [Stan James is the lucky bookie holding my money.]
Cleethorpes seems much more likely on current odds, well done
Stan James kind of put em up then ran off... anyway, here's to some more rickets nearer election time
Stan James was a hoot.
They started putting up the constituencies in alphabetical order. As they did so, a number of PB regulars were picking off the ricks. There were quite a few, Cleethorpes being one. When they got down to Eastleigh, they stopped. Then they wiped the board and have not been seen since.
Perhaps a supervisor spotted what was happening and stepped in before it got out of hand.
Basildon & Billericay 12/1.. John Baron's alikely defector so could be good value
How's this for the worst value piss take bet ever?
Will Hill go 7/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton....
and 11/2 the double with Clacton!!!!
Walsall North. The latest constituency poll there had : LAB 37, UKIP 30, CON 21, LD 8
And yet the odds are : LAB 2/7, CON 7/2, UKIP 8/1 with Ladbrokes. LAB 1/7, CON 5/1, UKIP 10/1 with Paddypower.
Thats one on my hit list.. I noted Ladbrokes were 16/1 when I made the list, but didn't back it.. value missed!
I cant work out why S Basildon & East Thurrock is so much bigger than Thurrock.. the Euro results were v similar, if anything they were better in SB&ET
4/1 still available there. The UKIP candidate is a councillor called Kerry Smith
Interesting fact, Walsall North had an English Nationalist MP for a short while in 1976, just because of notorious John Stonehouse. The National Front and the BNP have a history there.
Second Officer: Steiner forgot to mention the deficit.
According to Labour spin bot on here the deficit doesn't matter.
borrow baby borrow (until the IMF arrive)
How is deficit reduction going?
Labour's cheerleader on here says who cares about the deficit, which could be a worry for your beloved NHS.
The deficit reduction is miles off Plan A and now well behind Plan B though isnt it.
The biggest worry for my beloved NHS is another Tory Government IMO
.
More Motel 6 than Ritz Carlton?
I've used health care in France, Spain, Canada and the US. All were far superior to the NHS.
Obamacare is the exception. So few doctors and hospitals are in its network that it is inferior, though probably not to the NHS.
I believe the vast majority of those with plans on the healthcare exchanges prefer it to their previous plan, but I don't have the patience at this hour to find the survey.
The original point of Obamacare was was to insure the uninsured. Surveys are fine, but the facts are better. I would be suspicious of that survey - of the 40+ unilateral changes Obama has made to the law since it passed, the vast majority were to delay or minimise aspects of its implementation.If it was that popular why would he do that? The last poll I saw 54% of the country wants this law repealed.
It provides insurance, but what it is not good is the access. My daughter was under Obamacare and had to have gall bladder surgery in the summer. Once she found someone who would accept Obamacare she ended up with a $4k deductible. My wife called her insurance coordinator to find out that the deductible under our plan was $150.
Deductibles and copays are much higher under Obamacare than regular insurance - they have to be or it doesn't work financially with the subsidies which are on premiums not deductibles and copays.
Speedy The GOP base would likely narrowly prefer Cruz to Paul, but if the conservatives split between Cruz and Paul, who will also take libertarians, Christie could still win as Romney did as a moderate facing a divided conservative opposition
You are forgetting 2 things: 1. Governing records matter (especially if they are terrible), 2. The GOP establishment will swing it to anybody but Cruz (whom I call the Arthur Scargill of the GOP) if needed.
Speedy Why? Hillary is the most qualified presidential candidate for years. In 2020 the GOP would probably run a hard right candidate against her and get trounced, women will also not want to see the first female president lose as blacks did not with Obama, the US economy also grew again today. If Hillary wins in 2016 she gets 2 terms, though George P Bush, running for Texas Land Cssioner this year, is a good bet for 2024, then after him Bobby Kennedy's grandson, elected to Congress in 2012 is a possibility
They are odds on in four seats (admittedly 2 are by elections, but Clacton will be 1/6 or shorter in the GE)
Clacton 1/33 South Thanet 4/6 Rochester 4/5 Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
Last poll had UKIP 6 points in the lead ahead of Labour in Thurrock.
How reliable is the Boston survey? If UKIP are 20 points clear, 10/11 is a gift
Boston and Thurrock are both gifts.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Such a shame doubles etc aren't allowed on seats... I can't really be tying up money for 8 months on odds on shots
Yes, quite apart from tying up money for eight months, these constituency bets are related contingencies so you do always worry about a game-changing event. That's why the >5 or >6 seat markets are so attractive. You can hedge them, and chances are you can run a green book, as I have done on Betfair.
One seat I have backed UKIP in that is safe Labour until now is Telford.. Got 25/1 although its still 20/1
Bad bet?
Not at all. But you reckon it beats the pony I got on Cleethorpes at 33/1?
I reckon I'm in with a squeak. [Stan James is the lucky bookie holding my money.]
Cleethorpes seems much more likely on current odds, well done
Stan James kind of put em up then ran off... anyway, here's to some more rickets nearer election time
Stan James was a hoot.
They started putting up the constituencies in alphabetical order. As they did so, a number of PB regulars were picking off the ricks. There were quite a few, Cleethorpes being one. When they got down to Eastleigh, they stopped. Then they wiped the board and have not been seen since.
Perhaps a supervisor spotted what was happening and stepped in before it got out of hand.
I guess they can't get the staff these days, Sam.
The games gone!
I remember a sketch on I'm Sorry I'll Read That Again many many years ago where some of the action took place on the 3:17 to Cleethorpes......
Speedy Why? Hillary is the most qualified presidential candidate for years. In 2020 the GOP would probably run a hard right candidate against her and get trounced, women will also not want to see the first female president lose as blacks did not with Obama, the US economy also grew again today. If Hillary wins in 2016 she gets 2 terms, though George P Bush, running for Texas Land Cssioner this year, is a good bet for 2024, then after him Bobby Kennedy's grandson, elected to Congress in 2012 is a possibility
Obama was utterly unqualifed and won twice.
Hillary, like Obama, is a very polarizing and divisive candidate. She also has history on health care, not to mention several financial scandals.
Speedy Why? Hillary is the most qualified presidential candidate for years. In 2020 the GOP would probably run a hard right candidate against her and get trounced, women will also not want to see the first female president lose as blacks did not with Obama, the US economy also grew again today. If Hillary wins in 2016 she gets 2 terms, though George P Bush, running for Texas Land Cssioner this year, is a good bet for 2024, then after him Bobby Kennedy's grandson, elected to Congress in 2012 is a possibility
You seem to be stuck in a loop between Clinton, Bush and Kennedy.
In 2020 I think the GOP will put someone like Rand Paul and he will beat her not just because of his fresh ideas and his fresh face, but also because of the Julian Gillard factor (remember her?) and since every 8 years on average there is a recession, that will hit Hillary's term.
You forget that despite facing someone as horrid as Romney, Obama won by a margin of 51/47. Obama was (and is ) doing so bad that the democrats almost ditched him in 2011 (in the end they didn't had the stomach to ditch a black man, because according to them he was the first black president, even if he was a bad one).
I see Cameron's big line tomorrow is he's going to ring fence the NHS for another 5 years. Soon we won't have a government. It will be renamed the NHS Administration......
Presumably that's why they are offloading sovereignty to Brussels as soon as they can....
The crowd at Arrowhead Stadium for last night's Monday Night Football game between the Patriots and the Chiefs set a Guinness World Record with 142.2 decibels of noise.
He has been, as you can see, quite remarkably consistent.
I condensate the article in this:
"And let's resolve here, at this conference, when we put defeat behind us, failure behind us, to look ourselves in the eye and say: never, ever again.
I joined this party because I love my country. I love our character. I love our people, our history, our role in the world. This is the only party that understands, and is proud of, what we have been and who we are.
I joined this party because I believe in freedom. We are the only party believing that if you give people freedom and responsibility, they will grow stronger and society will grow stronger.
I joined this party because I believe in aspiration. This party, the Conservative party, is the only party that wants everybody to be a somebody - a doer, not a done-for.
That's the spirit we have to recapture. I want people to feel good about being a Conservative again."
Through 4 1/2 years in power he hasn't shown anything from that, perhaps that is the problem.
I see Cameron's big line tomorrow is he's going to ring fence the NHS for another 5 years. Soon we won't have a government. It will be renamed the NHS Administration......
Presumably that's why they are offloading sovereignty to Brussels as soon as they can....
Yes, the NHS Transfer Act (2015) is being written by a secret government committee as we speak
Paul Ryan would seem to be the most likely candidate to both satisfy the gop base and stand a very good chance of winning the white house
Not a chance, he has been burned from last time, plus he is struggling in the polls to: A. Win a state other than his own in the GOP race. B. Beating Hillary even in his own state.
Speedy Christie's record beyond the bridge affair in NJ is actually not bad, and he won reelection handily, the GOP establishment will not accept Paul or Cruz unless as a last resort
I see Cameron's big line tomorrow is he's going to ring fence the NHS for another 5 years. Soon we won't have a government. It will be renamed the NHS Administration......
Presumably that's why they are offloading sovereignty to Brussels as soon as they can....
Yes, the NHS Transfer Act (2015) is being written by a secret government committee as we speak
Oh I thought it would have been sorted out on the hoof with no planning at all in Ed Miliband's office over some Pizzas.
Tim B And Paul, Cruz and Bush are not polarizing? The Clintons also produced the most prosperous generation for the US in the 1990s for decades and are remembered fondly for that. Nixon, who Hillary resembles in some respects, was also polarizing, lost very narrowly on his first attempt to a charismatic newcomer, like Hillary, before winning again 8 years later
Speedy Christie's record beyond the bridge affair in NJ is actually not bad, and he won reelection handily, the GOP establishment will not accept Paul or Cruz unless as a last resort
Speedy Why? Hillary is the most qualified presidential candidate for years. In 2020 the GOP would probably run a hard right candidate against her and get trounced, women will also not want to see the first female president lose as blacks did not with Obama, the US economy also grew again today. If Hillary wins in 2016 she gets 2 terms, though George P Bush, running for Texas Land Cssioner this year, is a good bet for 2024, then after him Bobby Kennedy's grandson, elected to Congress in 2012 is a possibility
Obama was utterly unqualifed and won twice.
Hillary, like Obama, is a very polarizing and divisive candidate. She also has history on health care, not to mention several financial scandals.
He had more foreign policy experience than Bush did.
Speedy Considering 3/4 of the last 4 presidents have been a Clinton or Bush not surprising if the trend continues. The Kennedy family also still the third most powerful family in US politics, their influence crucial in getting Obama nominated. The US presidency is closer to the British Royal Family in some respects than the UK PM.
Paul is unlikely ever to win the GOP nomination, let alone the presidency and Hillary is not Gillard, though even Gillard got reelected. Hillary also polls far better than Obama.
The original point of Obamacare was was to insure the uninsured. Surveys are fine, but the facts are better. I would be suspicious of that survey - of the 40+ unilateral changes Obama has made to the law since it passed, the vast majority were to delay or minimise aspects of its implementation.If it was that popular why would he do that? The last poll I saw 54% of the country wants this law repealed.
It provides insurance, but what it is not good is the access. My daughter was under Obamacare and had to have gall bladder surgery in the summer. Once she found someone who would accept Obamacare she ended up with a $4k deductible. My wife called her insurance coordinator to find out that the deductible under our plan was $150.
Deductibles and copays are much higher under Obamacare than regular insurance - they have to be or it doesn't work financially with the subsidies which are on premiums not deductibles and copays.
There's no such thing as "regular insurance". They vary enormously in cost and coverage. Many non-Obamacare plans had lifetime limits on them, for example. Obamacare plans come quite clearly in bronze, silver, gold and platinum. The bronze ones aren't great admittedly, but they're a damn sight better than the crap ones in the wild west that previously existed.
And as for the uninsured population, that has definitely fallen:
Speedy Considering 3/4 of the last 4 presidents have been a Clinton or Bush not surprising if the trend continues. The Kennedy family also still the third most powerful family in US politics, their influence crucial in getting Obama nominated. The US presidency is closer to the British Royal Family in some respects than the UK PM.
Paul is unlikely ever to win the GOP nomination, let alone the presidency and Hillary is not Gillard, though even Gillard got reelected. Hillary also polls far better than Obama.
Gillard was elected only once,ending up with a minority losing a huge majority. And you also forget that those presidents are just Clinton, Bush and Bush jr from 1988-2008. That isn't a long record just because a president stays in the W.H. usually for two 8 year terms in over 200 years of elections. Statistically that happens with 44 presidents, look at the 2 Roosevelt's.
Also if you look at the polls and the odds, Paul is getting closer.
Speedy Why? Hillary is the most qualified presidential candidate for years. In 2020 the GOP would probably run a hard right candidate against her and get trounced, women will also not want to see the first female president lose as blacks did not with Obama, the US economy also grew again today. If Hillary wins in 2016 she gets 2 terms, though George P Bush, running for Texas Land Cssioner this year, is a good bet for 2024, then after him Bobby Kennedy's grandson, elected to Congress in 2012 is a possibility
Obama was utterly unqualifed and won twice.
Hillary, like Obama, is a very polarizing and divisive candidate. She also has history on health care, not to mention several financial scandals.
He had more foreign policy experience than Bush did.
He had lived abroad - not quite the same thing.
According to a recent Wall St Journal NBC News poll 63% of the country disapprove of his foreign policy.
The Republicans would not choose Christie even without hi current bridge related issues. An Obama loving East coast Republican would be dead in the water in the primaries.
Ryan, Paul, and Huckabee would be my the most likelies.
Speedy Gillard did not enter office elected in her own right, which Hillary would have to in 2016. The bad blood of her feud with Rudd also hit her campaign, Hillary largely mended fences with Obama.
Speedy Well you could look at John Adams and John Quincy Adams too, as well as the Roosevelts, family influence strong in US presidential politics and Bobby Kennedy would likely have been elected president in 1968 had he not been assassinated. The Bush, Clinton and Kennedy brands are very powerful
Speedy In the polls he is still around the top tier, he remains a contendor
Christie's only power base is Wall Street, if he shows that he can't manage an economy (in fact New Jersey has crashed) then they will ditch him. No Wall Street man will give his support to someone who crashed economically and fiscally his own state.
"His record in New Jersey could prove "just one more problem for a Christie candidacy," on top of the fallout over apparently politically motivated traffic jams at the George Washington Bridge, said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.
Donors already wary of Christie will be even more so "if he's showing to be less than sharp in fiscal management," Scala said."
Even outside US family brand helpful, look at Trudeau likely to be next Canadian PM following in his father's footsteps. In France Hollande succeeded his ex wife as Socialist candidate, in Argentina Kirchner her husband.
Comments
No money for the Eiffel Tower
Good night.
Also, today Will Hills were offering 7/4 against 5 seats or more (not 6 seats, a la Betfair) and that too looks a gift.
Voters know in whose hands the NHS is safe
That disaster is not going to be elected to any office ever ever again.
Trees, Cars, Taxes, Swiss bank accounts, Weather vane, bad campaign, wooden. I remember all those. Here is a reminder:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=236zu7AGSUg
Yeah, and you're sounding so happy about it.
I have said before the NHS is more important to me than LAB and almost everything else. The Tories are not trusted whether or not you like it. As for UKIP well policies on NHS all over the place.
Bits of the NHS are great. A lot of it is Third World.
Carry on worshipping it if you like - strange religion.
It seems, in the overall scheme of things, a bit mean to pick on Mitt Romney...
Larry Sabato is as puzzled as the rest of us:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-presidential-update-for-republicans-a-vacancy-at-the-top/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RHaMqHh5NZ4
wHICH HEALTH SYSTEMS OUTPERFORM THE nhs.
The NHS needs to be judged against other countries health operations to come up with an informed opinion as to which is better.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/the-five-greatest-gaffes-rick-perry/#0
I've used health services in quite a few other countries, and compared to them, the level of care here isn't that special.
Called It!
That's a 2 for me today.
Presumably minus one as well.
Where's my Casio?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J71zI6v7BvE
He has a popular weekly TV show, so he has a cushy number - as soon as he announces that's gone.
'What about the 8% cut they suffered under Labour? How is it performing, waiting lists etc'
Worst in the UK, Labour prefers NHS cuts to student fees.
I've used health care in France, Spain, Canada and the US. All were far superior to the NHS.
Obamacare is the exception. So few doctors and hospitals are in its network that it is inferior, though probably not to the NHS.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/11/12/herman-cain-s-anita-hill-joke-and-more-cringe-worthy-moments.html?cid=interactiveonetrade
The whole thing was just astonishing. These guys were bidding for the biggest job on earth, and were taken seriously, yet in comparison they make even Ed Miliband look like a colossus.
However at this moment they are the frontrunners.
Before you take any decision take into account the calendar of the GOP race.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/07/27/cnn-poll-romney-tops-obama-but-loses-to-clinton/
Bad bet?
It is hard to see that genie going back in the bottle.
Particularly if the protests spread elsewhere.
Any party who stays too long in power suffers from a lack of talent once in opposition due to heavyweights being burned and ageing and becoming yesterdays men, while the oxygen of power and publicity goes to only the man in the highest office.
Look at the Democrats today, after Hillary they have no one, Obama sucks all the publicity while the Republicans have build half a dozen heavyweights.
I reckon I'm in with a squeak. [Stan James is the lucky bookie holding my money.]
The GOP's problem was not that they spent too long in power. It's that the right-wing media - talk radio and Fox - have been such propaganda outlets that Republicans are out of touch with reality.
How's this for the worst value piss take bet ever?
Will Hill go 7/1 UKIP to win Heywood & Middleton....
and 11/2 the double with Clacton!!!!
Christie has other problems too, not just the legal stuff, New Jersey is collapsing under his watch, pensions, jobs, crime, deficit, you name it.
As I said months ago, Christie's biggest weakness is his appalling record as governor.
New Jersey is going bankrupt with a huge pension problem that he said he had fixed it.
Also closer to us, he's not a fan of betting:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/09/30/pro-sports-leagues-sue-chris-christie-over-new-jersey-sports-betting/
You can't blame WillHill for trying.
To be fair, over the same timescale the GOP also has time to produce some more serious candidates. It's 2016 which is the problem for them.
Why is it that the State Department always wants a fight, they still haven't lifted the sanctions from Tienanmen Square.
The latest constituency poll there had :
LAB 37, UKIP 30, CON 21, LD 8
And yet the odds are :
LAB 2/7, CON 7/2, UKIP 8/1 with Ladbrokes.
LAB 1/7, CON 5/1, UKIP 10/1 with Paddypower.
Stan James kind of put em up then ran off... anyway, here's to some more rickets nearer election time
Imagine what China could achieve if it were more democratic, or how wrong it could go if the PLA do a Tianamen again.
This has potential to be much bigger than the arab spring.
Thi
For 2016 the republicans are OK, they beat any other democrat than Hillary, and that's because of Hillary's gender.
By 2020 the novelty of first female president would be worn out, add in a recession that is likely to occur by then, and the republicans will beat her.
They started putting up the constituencies in alphabetical order. As they did so, a number of PB regulars were picking off the ricks. There were quite a few, Cleethorpes being one. When they got down to Eastleigh, they stopped. Then they wiped the board and have not been seen since.
Perhaps a supervisor spotted what was happening and stepped in before it got out of hand.
I guess they can't get the staff these days, Sam.
I cant work out why S Basildon & East Thurrock is so much bigger than Thurrock.. the Euro results were v similar, if anything they were better in SB&ET
4/1 still available there. The UKIP candidate is a councillor called Kerry Smith
Just think, the world's largest economy implodes into civil war.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/once-upon-a-time-david-cameron-had-a-story-to-tell-he-needs-to-remember-it-and-tell-it-again/
Let's hope Alex Massie is misreading things.
It provides insurance, but what it is not good is the access. My daughter was under Obamacare and had to have gall bladder surgery in the summer. Once she found someone who would accept Obamacare she ended up with a $4k deductible. My wife called her insurance coordinator to find out that the deductible under our plan was $150.
Deductibles and copays are much higher under Obamacare than regular insurance - they have to be or it doesn't work financially with the subsidies which are on premiums not deductibles and copays.
He has been, as you can see, quite remarkably consistent.
Hillary, like Obama, is a very polarizing and divisive candidate. She also has history on health care, not to mention several financial scandals.
In 2020 I think the GOP will put someone like Rand Paul and he will beat her not just because of his fresh ideas and his fresh face, but also because of the Julian Gillard factor (remember her?) and since every 8 years on average there is a recession, that will hit Hillary's term.
You forget that despite facing someone as horrid as Romney, Obama won by a margin of 51/47. Obama was (and is ) doing so bad that the democrats almost ditched him in 2011 (in the end they didn't had the stomach to ditch a black man, because according to them he was the first black president, even if he was a bad one).
Presumably that's why they are offloading sovereignty to Brussels as soon as they can....
"And let's resolve here, at this conference, when we put defeat behind us, failure behind us, to look ourselves in the eye and say: never, ever again.
I joined this party because I love my country. I love our character. I love our people, our history, our role in the world. This is the only party that understands, and is proud of, what we have been and who we are.
I joined this party because I believe in freedom. We are the only party believing that if you give people freedom and responsibility, they will grow stronger and society will grow stronger.
I joined this party because I believe in aspiration. This party, the Conservative party, is the only party that wants everybody to be a somebody - a doer, not a done-for.
That's the spirit we have to recapture. I want people to feel good about being a Conservative again."
Through 4 1/2 years in power he hasn't shown anything from that, perhaps that is the problem.
Everything else so far that some within the GOP may dislike won't count for sh1t if the guy shows he can be a winner.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-11/christie-gets-record-eighth-rating-cut-on-pension-moves.html
http://articles.philly.com/2014-09-15/news/53908584_1_pension-system-state-payments-christie
If Christie has any chances of being President of the USA, why not the PM of Greece?
Paul is unlikely ever to win the GOP nomination, let alone the presidency and Hillary is not Gillard, though even Gillard got reelected. Hillary also polls far better than Obama.
And as for the uninsured population, that has definitely fallen:
http://www.newrepublic.com/sites/default/files/u18524/gallup_may_uninsured.png
And you also forget that those presidents are just Clinton, Bush and Bush jr from 1988-2008.
That isn't a long record just because a president stays in the W.H. usually for two 8 year terms in over 200 years of elections.
Statistically that happens with 44 presidents, look at the 2 Roosevelt's.
Also if you look at the polls and the odds, Paul is getting closer.
According to a recent Wall St Journal NBC News poll 63% of the country disapprove of his foreign policy.
Ryan, Paul, and Huckabee would be my the most likelies.
Speedy Well you could look at John Adams and John Quincy Adams too, as well as the Roosevelts, family influence strong in US presidential politics and Bobby Kennedy would likely have been elected president in 1968 had he not been assassinated. The Bush, Clinton and Kennedy brands are very powerful
No Wall Street man will give his support to someone who crashed economically and fiscally his own state.
Look at one of the articles that I posted:
http://articles.philly.com/2014-09-15/news/53908584_1_pension-system-state-payments-christie
"His record in New Jersey could prove "just one more problem for a Christie candidacy," on top of the fallout over apparently politically motivated traffic jams at the George Washington Bridge, said Dante Scala, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.
Donors already wary of Christie will be even more so "if he's showing to be less than sharp in fiscal management," Scala said."