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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out
The fieldwork was Friday to Sunday inclusive, so some of it was conducted during Mark Reckless’ defection and Brooks Newmark’s resignation. There’ll probably be relief at Tory HQ, given that and the the polling was conducted in the aftermath of the Labour conference that they are up 1% and not down a significant amount.
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Tonights Com Res LAB 360 CON 229 LD 33 EICIPM
Another early night for PB Tories?
Very good conference. There is loads of time for significant change.
Could it be the SNP?
Say what you like about the PB Tories (meaning 2) - but at least they know how to have fun.
Look at that graph - funky funky funky for Team Ed (is crap). All you've got on the Tv is A Neil.
But no - the non-exiscent PB Labs just never turn up to the party.
Labour 255
Tory 208
UKIP 117
Lib Dem 58
Bizarre. It bears zero reflection to what actually happened in 2010.
Normally I write the morning thread about now, and set it to autopublish at 5am.
I'm scared to do that this evening. A defector would bugger up that thread before it is published.
If the Tories do manage to win, the howls of anguish from the anti-Cameron brigade (those that would rather the Tories lose under Cameron that is, not just those who dislike Cameron) will be something to behold, that's for sure.
The analysis?
"There'll probably be relief at Tory HQ"
Gotta love Tory Stand-in Editors.
Two years ago, I wrote that I would put the UKIP vote at a minimum of 6%. Then I revised it upwards to 8%. Now 10% looks like a banker. Albeit all the additional 7% from GE2010 have not come from the Tories, more like Tories 5, Labour 2.
Until Carswell and Reckless, even those percentages would not have guaranteed an MP. But one or two positive results will mean that many UKIP sympathisers who otherwise would have drifted back to the Tories on the "wasted votes" propaganda , will not do so now as they will have proof that UKIP can win HoC seats.
To an extent, it is like the Black vote in the early part of the Democratic primaries in 2008. Only after Iowa and NH, did they really believe that Obama could win and that was when the big shift took place away from Clinton.
Second Officer: Steiner forgot to mention the deficit.
Con 12 point lead on 1/10/09 turned into Con 7.2% lead at GE2010
And publish the one most appropriate.
I would expect the defector to be announced between 10am and 11am.
Cameron starts at 11.15am.
borrow baby borrow (until the IMF arrive)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk
We know that there will be a Tory defector, we don't know when (we can guess during Cameron's speech), and we don't know who.
Jacks ARSE says so.
Unfortunately MCARSE was wrong by circa 5% so dont hold your breath.
Even Prof Fisher now has LAB as biggest party
The by election will no doubt be very hard fought with both parties putting all resources into the contest which will be a real test of their campaigning strengths locally and give pointers to the GE chances next May .
I'm watching Sarah you can all take the piss if you want.
I think by 1 pm or 5 pm for the news.
-0.3% week ending 21st September
-0.6% week ending 28th September
And now, I shall take my own advice.
Oh my life, stop the press!!!
Do you realise this news has absolutely naused TSE's plans for morning threads???
The biggest worry for my beloved NHS is another Tory Government IMO
I can't understand, a hospital is a hospital, not mt.Rushmore or Christmas.
Wonder how those people from The Palace that handed hapless Dave his first job feel now?
Over 5 Seats should be odds on, not odds against.
only to later tweet 'Reading btl on this week's column and seeing how many people hate all Muslims makes me despair for humanity'
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot
How do you explain that?
Then surely it is PB Hodgeses, or does Hodges not have a distinct plural form like salmon, for instance?
Clacton 1/33
South Thanet 4/6
Rochester 4/5
Boston 10/11
I think FWIW Thurrock should be odds on as well. PP are 6/4 but Lads are still 7/4
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrick_Harvie
It's not spelled that way is it??
If you have a case then set it out but we both know you are talking shit.
Explain education in Wales under Labour too please.
Wont survive 5 more years of Tory policies in a recognisable form IMO
It must almost feel like planning a terrorist attack
Smile, give the interviewee enough rope. Frost Nixon technique
Boris looked awful on Newsnight.
You are so blinkered it is pathetic.
Is this really the best way forward?
Also the local Tory MP Mark Simmonds is unpopular, the local conservatives were complaining about him a lot and he is stepping down, they still haven't selected a candidate.
Effectively Boston is earmarked as a UKIP gain since the 2013 locals.
The survation poll is no surprise to me.
Send British people encouraging extremism back to the country their parents came from?