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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale says a defection is imminent

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  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    LIKE!!!

    Dale is one of a number of tory leaning commentators who seem to write lots but never say anything much.
  • The funny thing is the Tories actually did quite well at the ballot box under IDS. Backbenchers panicked because Blair twonked him at PMQs every week.

    They were right to panic.

    Put it this way: When IDS was Conservative leader, I was in the same the same position as many Labour supporters are now: I really couldn't see myself, in all honesty, able to vote Conservative in a general election where the choice was Blair vs IDS. It simply wasn't possible to argue that IDS would make the better PM or run the better government as a whole. I was wondering what I would do about this conundum (thinking that perhaps it would make sense to vote Conservative on condition that, as seemed likely, there was zero chance of them winning, on the grounds that it was better for them not to be totally wiped out), when fortunately the party came to its senses and installed Michael Howard. Howard wouldn't have been my top choice, but he was credible as a potential PM in a way in which IDS wasn't.
  • DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.

    At Conference time, there's no such thing as bad publicity. After the 2003 nightmare, Yougov produced a poll showing Con 38% to Lab 33%.
    The voters loved the "The quiet man is here to stay and he's turning up the volume." Speech

    The Tories were wrong to ditch him a few weeks later.


    The Tories were wrong to elect him in the first place.
    The funny thing is the Tories actually did quite well at the ballot box under IDS. Backbenchers panicked because Blair twonked him at PMQs every week.
    There were some very dicey opinion polls which put them close to falling behind the Lib Dems too.
  • Socrates said:

    @Luckyguy1983

    You may have missed my post on the previous thread, but can you find any evidence of the OSCE "confirming" mass graves in Eastern Ukraine? I mean if they've confirmed it, that should be pretty big news and would be on their website.

    Here is the relevant passage from the initial report by the OSCE:

    'The ‘military police’ of ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’ (‘DPR’) told the SMM that three unmarked graves allegedly containing multiple bodies had been found; two of them were located in a coal mine Komunar near the village Nyzhnia Krynka (35km north-east of Donetsk) and one inside the village. The SMM proceeded to the scene and saw in the coal mine two areas located fifty metres apart, each containing two human bodies. All four corpses were in the process of decomposition. The SMM also saw eight 9mm Makarov pistol cartridges approximately five meters away from the bodies.'
    http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/124216

    You may also be interested in Amnesty International's report on the war crimes of the neo-nazi Aidar battalion:

    Members of the Aidar territorial defence battalion, operating in the north Luhansk region, have been involved in widespread abuses, including abductions, unlawful detention, ill-treatment, theft, extortion, and possible executions.
    https://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/EUR50/040/2014/en

    And here, even with his speech couched in highly favourable terms to the Kiev Government, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in his report summary in Vienna speaks of:

    'disturbing reports of violations committed by battalions under Government control. These battalions have replaced the police in many of these newly-liberated towns and villages. I acknowledge efforts made by the Government to clarify the legal status of the battalions. However, reports of arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances and torture have been documented in the report. I have met with some of the victims and have made it clear to the authorities that perpetrators need to be held accountable and that the Government must exercise more control over all of its forces, including the volunteer battalions. I received assurances that this will be done.'
    http://www.ohchr.org/EN/newyork/Stories/Pages/ASGSimonovicatOSCEonUkraine.aspx

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited September 2014
    I've just worked out who Dale is referring to.... disillusioned with Cameron, fed up with the same old Westminster parties etc....

    It's QE II going to UKIP!!!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014

    I've just worked out who Dale is referring to.... disillusioned with Cameron, fed up with the same old Westminster parties etc....

    It's QE II going to UKIP!!!

    Ah yes, regretting that famous call from the palace...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Surely as the Tories tack right towards UKIP they are in danger of losing one nation supporters like TSE
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    They were right to panic.

    Ian Duncan Smith had the opportunity to destroy Tony Blair by turning his tories against Iraq in 2003.

    If only he had taken it.
  • The funny thing is the Tories actually did quite well at the ballot box under IDS. Backbenchers panicked because Blair twonked him at PMQs every week.

    They were right to panic.

    Put it this way: When IDS was Conservative leader, I was in the same the same position as many Labour supporters are now: I really couldn't see myself, in all honesty, able to vote Conservative in a general election where the choice was Blair vs IDS. It simply wasn't possible to argue that IDS would make the better PM or run the better government as a whole. I was wondering what I would do about this conundum (thinking that perhaps it would make sense to vote Conservative on condition that, as seemed likely, there was zero chance of them winning, on the grounds that it was better for them not to be totally wiped out), when fortunately the party came to its senses and installed Michael Howard. Howard wouldn't have been my top choice, but he was credible as a potential PM in a way in which IDS wasn't.
    And yet in retrospect Blair was quite possibly the worst PM of the postwar period. Not really the best example to give is it?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Surely as the Tories tack right towards UKIP they are in danger of losing one nation supporters like TSE

    As UKIP tack left.

    All very odd.
  • Tebbit?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    4/6 now that any further Tory MP to defect..

    still big IMO

    Is that any MP at all? Or any further MP that isn't listed?
    Oh.. I am assuming any MP at all.. .

    if its any MP not listed then its not so good, and its also the biggest over round in the history of bookmaking
    I'd assumed it was any other than those listed and wasn't sure what you were on about as I'm too busy losing money backing Rev Oswald... just checked the Ladbrokes site/table, I'm not sure!!
  • Mr. Tyndall, certainly shows that a superficially charming chap can be utterly rubbish where it counts, and that popularity and competence are not always bedfellows.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    The funny thing is the Tories actually did quite well at the ballot box under IDS. Backbenchers panicked because Blair twonked him at PMQs every week.

    They were right to panic.

    Put it this way: When IDS was Conservative leader, I was in the same the same position as many Labour supporters are now: I really couldn't see myself, in all honesty, able to vote Conservative in a general election where the choice was Blair vs IDS. It simply wasn't possible to argue that IDS would make the better PM or run the better government as a whole. I was wondering what I would do about this conundum (thinking that perhaps it would make sense to vote Conservative on condition that, as seemed likely, there was zero chance of them winning, on the grounds that it was better for them not to be totally wiped out), when fortunately the party came to its senses and installed Michael Howard. Howard wouldn't have been my top choice, but he was credible as a potential PM in a way in which IDS wasn't.
    And yet in retrospect Blair was quite possibly the worst PM of the postwar period. Not really the best example to give is it?
    No need to use such a short time frame, is there?
  • taffys said:

    They were right to panic.

    Ian Duncan Smith had the opportunity to destroy Tony Blair by turning his tories against Iraq in 2003.

    If only he had taken it.

    Yes, but sadly, he himself was more pro than most of his party.
  • Swiss_Bob said:

    Tebbit?

    Tebbit or Lawson perhaps?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I'm torn with this. Legislating consent is necessary but tricky.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-29406138

    I'm not sure California have got this right - especially re: drunkeness.
  • Surely as the Tories tack right towards UKIP they are in danger of losing one nation supporters like TSE

    Hey. I'm a far right extremist according to some.
  • Surely as the Tories tack right towards UKIP they are in danger of losing one nation supporters like TSE

    Whichever way they tack they will lose from one side or the other. They are a fundamentally fractured party.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014

    And yet in retrospect Blair was quite possibly the worst PM of the postwar period. Not really the best example to give is it?

    Blair was indeed one of the worst PMs of the post-war period, true (although that wasn't as obvious then as it is now). Nonetheless, I just didn't at that time see IDS as a credible PM.

    Perhaps I was wrong, I don't know. We'll never know. But the point I'm making is about the politics of it at the time.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    I actually didn't know Ian Dale was still going. Thought he'd dropped off the scene after 2010 (aside from that bizarre punch up he got into on telly last year)
  • philiph said:

    The funny thing is the Tories actually did quite well at the ballot box under IDS. Backbenchers panicked because Blair twonked him at PMQs every week.

    They were right to panic.

    Put it this way: When IDS was Conservative leader, I was in the same the same position as many Labour supporters are now: I really couldn't see myself, in all honesty, able to vote Conservative in a general election where the choice was Blair vs IDS. It simply wasn't possible to argue that IDS would make the better PM or run the better government as a whole. I was wondering what I would do about this conundum (thinking that perhaps it would make sense to vote Conservative on condition that, as seemed likely, there was zero chance of them winning, on the grounds that it was better for them not to be totally wiped out), when fortunately the party came to its senses and installed Michael Howard. Howard wouldn't have been my top choice, but he was credible as a potential PM in a way in which IDS wasn't.
    And yet in retrospect Blair was quite possibly the worst PM of the postwar period. Not really the best example to give is it?
    No need to use such a short time frame, is there?
    I was being charitable ☺
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    isam said:

    4/6 now that any further Tory MP to defect..

    still big IMO

    Is that any MP at all? Or any further MP that isn't listed?
    Oh.. I am assuming any MP at all.. .

    if its any MP not listed then its not so good, and its also the biggest over round in the history of bookmaking
    I'd assumed it was any other than those listed and wasn't sure what you were on about as I'm too busy losing money backing Rev Oswald... just checked the Ladbrokes site/table, I'm not sure!!
    It surely cant be

    @Shadsy can you adjudicate please? What is this bet?!
  • Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.
  • And yet in retrospect Blair was quite possibly the worst PM of the postwar period. Not really the best example to give is it?

    Blair was indeed one of the worst PMs of the post-war period, true (although that wasn't as obvious then as it is now). Nonetheless, I just didn't at that time see IDS as a credible PM.

    Perhaps I was wrong, I don't know. We'll never know. But the point I'm making is about the politics of it at the time.
    I do understand. Just wondering if you now regret that position given what you know now and whether it would influence current decisions?

    By the way did you see my AJP Taylor quote at the end of the last thread?
  • MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.

    You sound like Duncan Sandys, and will be proved just as wrong:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957_Defence_White_Paper

    1957:
    Q. Why do we need aircraft, when missiles will do the job just as well?
    A. They cannot perform all roles just as well.

    2014:
    Q. Why do we need manned aircraft, when drones can do the job perfectly well?
    A. They cannot perform all roles just as well.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633



    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    How many times did Carswell defy the whip whilst an MP ?

    How often were his principles disabused by Con party policy ?

    PS the Mensch-o-tron is Kipping mad today :)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Which Conservative MP would it take to come out and say that Cameron isn't serious about doing what he says he will for you to think they are telling the truth?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    Swiss_Bob said:

    Tebbit?

    If Tebbit were an MP today I could see him being a UKIP one rather than a Conservative one. Such has the party lost its way.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    edited September 2014

    Surely as the Tories tack right towards UKIP they are in danger of losing one nation supporters like TSE

    The Conservatives are certainly in danger of losing my vote at the next election. I don't believe they're tacking right at the moment but I do worry that they might well consider working with UKIP after the GE. The slightest hint of any co-operation or coalition with UKIP and they'll be off my list of options. UKIP genuinely terrifies and horrifies me.

    (I'm Conservative/LibDem/Green swing voter - although my GE vote has always gone Conservative so far my choice in other elections has swung between all three of these parties.)

  • Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    You just don't get it. He shouldn't have 'handled things better'; he shouldn't have 'listened'; he shouldn't have had more barbeques; he shouldn't have sneered less and developed an estuary accent -he should have simply realised that he is there to represent the party that people voted for, rather than the party being there to represent him. That's it. Not difficult.
  • Surely as the Tories tack right towards UKIP they are in danger of losing one nation supporters like TSE

    The Conservatives are certainly in danger of losing my vote at the next election. I don't believe they're tacking right at the moment but I do worry that they might well consider working with UKIP after the GE. The slightest hint of any co-operation or coalition with UKIP and they'll be off my list of options. UKIP genuinely terrifies and horrifies me.

    (I'm Conservative/LibDem/Green swing voter - although my GE vote has always gone Conservative so far my choice in other elections has swung between all three of these parties.)

    What is it that terrifies you about UKIP?
  • Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    to be fair - they'd seen the Tories in power for nearly a full term, both had failed to make it in to their Jags and collect any red boxes and they are no doubt disappointed given how great they both are, time to move on if their greatness wasn't being recognised enough for them within a 300 odd MP constituency and clearly the cream doesn't rise to the top in the modern tory party.... so they have jogged on. fair enough.
  • Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Absolute rubbish. Carswell was never going to lose Clacton even staying with the Tories. UKIP had a joke of a candidate that even I would have had difficulty voting for and Labour were nowhere in sight. Your sad smears are just sour grapes.
  • Mr. Isam, I prefer the certain proof of the AV and Scottish votes over the capacity of a backbench MP to prophesy the future.

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.

    Frustrated? How dare you, I'm not an isolationist Kipper!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?
  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    edited September 2014
    MaxPB said:

    Swiss_Bob said:

    Tebbit?

    If Tebbit were an MP today I could see him being a UKIP one rather than a Conservative one. Such has the party lost its way.
    Someone said he wouldn't attract Labour voters.

    True, but the WWC?

    If it was true I would suggest his role would be elder statesman etc.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Surely people like Ken Clarke and (TSE) are now in the wrong party
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited September 2014
    TGOHF said:


    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    How many times did Carswell defy the whip whilst an MP ?
    How often were his principles disabused by Con party policy ?
    Reckless defects over the Conservative Leadership not following through on all the GE 2010 manifesto promises.
    Farage turns round and trashes all the UKIP GE 2010 manifesto promises.
    Anyone spot the inconsistency? Out of the frying pan and into the fire goes Reckless and Carswell.
  • "Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP."

    Not quite the same.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.

    Do you think it will be a bit of a bugger when a decently equipped modern military jams the control signal, which means the UAV will default to safe haven mode and fly home? Or don't you see it being an issue?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited September 2014
    isam said:

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Which Conservative MP would it take to come out and say that Cameron isn't serious about doing what he says he will for you to think they are telling the truth?
    In the hypothetical world of a Cameron majority and administration post 2015, do you really think there is any chance that his MPs would allow him to sail through 2017 without having the Euro referendum. There is nil chance of that happening. He would have a mass and majority loosing walkout. (Assuming it was a manifesto promise)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited September 2014
    TGOHF said:



    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    How many times did Carswell defy the whip whilst an MP ?

    How often were his principles disabused by Con party policy ?
    Carswell rebellions (7.7%):

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?id=uk.org.publicwhip/member/40175#divisions

    Reckless rebellions: (8.8%):

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mp.php?mpn=Mark_Reckless&mpc=Rochester_and_Strood&house=commons

    And the rebellious MPs:

    http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/mps.php?sort=rebellions

    Hollobone top of the list on 19.5%.....
  • Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).
  • isam said:

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Which Conservative MP would it take to come out and say that Cameron isn't serious about doing what he says he will for you to think they are telling the truth?
    Hannan did at lunch time sort of - he said he will be on the opposite side to Cameron for any EU referendum but despite that he says he's staying a Tory - that to me is the respectable approach, the two of them are clearly out vs in but both remain a Tory. That's fine and whilst I disagree with Hannan on that, fair play if he doesn't throw his toys out and jump - this may surprise some but there's more to being a Tory than effing [moderated] Europe!!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TGOHF said:

    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?

    It was great though, people who can remember life before the NHS are eternally grateful.

    What is the greatest achievement of this Govt?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Tebbit leaving the Tories would be part of detoxifying the Tory brand - can only be a good thing...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Reading all the posts on here, I haven't had such a good laugh in months; not even with the Reckless defection on Saturday.

    I wonder who it could be though? Must be someone of some importance to be flagged up by Dale so pointedly.

  • Surely people like Ken Clarke and (TSE) are now in the wrong party

    and me .....

    BUT THERE'S MORE TO BEING A TORY THAN EFFING EUROPE, apart from the nutjob wing...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    philiph said:

    isam said:

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Which Conservative MP would it take to come out and say that Cameron isn't serious about doing what he says he will for you to think they are telling the truth?
    In the hypothetical world of a Cameron majority and administration post 2015, do you really think there is any chance that his MPs would allow him to sail through 2017 without having the Euro referendum. There is nil chance of that happening. He would have a mass and majority loosing walkout. (Assuming it was a manifesto promise)
    No one said he wouldn't have the referendum
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited September 2014

    TGOHF said:

    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?

    It was great though, people who can remember life before the NHS are eternally grateful.

    What is the greatest achievement of this Govt?
    Digging the country out of the biggest economic snit pit ever made by Labour whilst taking low income workers out of tax altogether.

    Number of other countries which copied the NHS model ?
  • Afternoon all and I wish Iain Dale would defect to UKIP. Frankly since he got humped by the LibDems in Norfolk he has been a right pain in the Tory arse. He spends too much time with Jacqui Smith on the sofa at Sky News.

    Humped? Gnarff.
  • Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.

    You sound like Duncan Sandys, and will be proved just as wrong:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957_Defence_White_Paper

    1957:
    Q. Why do we need aircraft, when missiles will do the job just as well?
    A. They cannot perform all roles just as well.

    2014:
    Q. Why do we need manned aircraft, when drones can do the job perfectly well?
    A. They cannot perform all roles just as well.
    Indeed. Drones are pretty useful when you own the sky (i.e. have total air superiority), but are a great deal less useful when you do not. Drones are great fun for human pilots to shoot down though.

    This may change in the future, but I'd say for the next 15 years the sky still belongs to the bald apes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014

    I do understand. Just wondering if you now regret that position given what you know now and whether it would influence current decisions?

    Dunno. I think there's a certain minimum level of competence and credibility which is essential if you're voting for a party in the hope that it will form the next government (of course that doesn't matter if it's a protest vote or there's no realistic chance of winning).

    By the way did you see my AJP Taylor quote at the end of the last thread?

    I just looked. Yes, I'm familiar with that. We've discussed it before, and I'm not sure it's right, or at least it doesn't take account of the reality of the constraints under which people lived.

    In any case, you can't have the whole set of roads carrying millions of cars, railways, air travel, universal education, universal health services, power and gas delivered to you home, etc etc without state supervision of some sort. We're not going back to the 19th century, which is why I think my comparison of the pre-Thatcher years is a better one - it was a society recognisable today, but less free than what we have now.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Which Conservative MP would it take to come out and say that Cameron isn't serious about doing what he says he will for you to think they are telling the truth?
    Hannan did at lunch time sort of - he said he will be on the opposite side to Cameron for any EU referendum but despite that he says he's staying a Tory - that to me is the respectable approach, the two of them are clearly out vs in but both remain a Tory. That's fine and whilst I disagree with Hannan on that, fair play if he doesn't throw his toys out and jump - this may surprise some but there's more to being a Tory than effing [moderated] Europe!!!
    Would Hannan have a job if he defected?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    TGOHF said:

    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?

    It was great though, people who can remember life before the NHS are eternally grateful.

    Ah, the bad old days, when the poor were forced to drink water from their own flower vases rather than the free, state supplied ones.
  • TGOHF said:

    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?

    It was great though, people who can remember life before the NHS are eternally grateful.

    What is the greatest achievement of this Govt?
    Kicking Gordon Brown out of Downing Street
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    isam said:

    philiph said:

    isam said:

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Which Conservative MP would it take to come out and say that Cameron isn't serious about doing what he says he will for you to think they are telling the truth?
    In the hypothetical world of a Cameron majority and administration post 2015, do you really think there is any chance that his MPs would allow him to sail through 2017 without having the Euro referendum. There is nil chance of that happening. He would have a mass and majority loosing walkout. (Assuming it was a manifesto promise)
    No one said he wouldn't have the referendum
    Just those that say they don't trust a word he says, can't believe him, look at his backsliding on Lisbon.........

    No never any mention.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.

    That's the problem with the modern Tory, they have bought into this idiotic idea that softly, softly works and that by trading with pariah nations and turning them into suppliers or customers we can ensure they modernise and democratise. That is purportedly why the aid budget was increased so vastly. In reality halving the aid budget spending half the saving on increasing the size of the military and the other half on reducing the deficit would make us safer as a nation. The UK Aid budget is £13.6bn this year, which seems insane given that we are running a ~£100bn deficit and we are slashing and burning at defence with a newly belligerent Russia, possible tension between China and regional powers, ISIL and the new threat from "lone wolf" terrorists on British soil. It is truly one of those policies from a Tory government that makes me wonder what the hell the leadership think voters want.
  • Surely people like Ken Clarke and (TSE) are now in the wrong party

    and me .....

    BUT THERE'S MORE TO BEING A TORY THAN EFFING EUROPE, apart from the nutjob wing...
    Perhaps the nutjob wing understands that you can't actually DO ANYTHING Toryish without coming up against the EU roadblock. What's the point of just 'being one' -liking the colour blue?

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
  • Mr. Max, quite. There's a reason Britannia has an olive branch in one hand and a trident in the other.

    [As an aside, the new coin designs are rubbish].
  • "Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP."

    The Baroness Warsi?
  • Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    You just don't get it. He shouldn't have 'handled things better'; he shouldn't have 'listened'; he shouldn't have had more barbeques; he shouldn't have sneered less and developed an estuary accent -he should have simply realised that he is there to represent the party that people voted for, rather than the party being there to represent him. That's it. Not difficult.
    Just because he did not do the action you wanted, did not mean he did not 'listen' to that viewpoint, or indeed other viewpoints.

    There can be many views, but often only one action. Assuming that your views were not listened to just because another decision was made is the height of childishness. Any leader has to weigh up differing opinions, the facts they have, and their own opinions and prejudices before making any decision.

    Or are you claiming that the UKIP-favourable arm of the party is the only 'true' Conservative arm, and the only one Cameron should listen to?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
  • Surely people like Ken Clarke and (TSE) are now in the wrong party

    Nope.

    We're all broadly fiscal conservatives. Enough of us are socially liberal.

    I think a referendum is essential to sort out this country's future with the EU one way or the other.

    There's a wing that would rather have no referendum and Ed Miliband as PM that are buggering off to UKIP.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?

    It was great though, people who can remember life before the NHS are eternally grateful.

    What is the greatest achievement of this Govt?
    Digging the country out of the biggest economic snit pit ever made by Labour whilst taking low income workers out of tax altogether.

    Number of other countries which copied the NHS model ?
    Deficit reduction is miles off target you really think that is the biggest achievement.

    Re personal income tax allowance that was an LD policy wasnt it

    George wanted to cut 50p rate to 40p to prove we are(n;t) all in it together.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited September 2014

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.

    Morris_Dancer is referring to Matthew Goodwin's list of UKIP-friendly demographics:

    Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · Sep 28

    Rank in Ukip-friendly list: Clacton = 1 Rotherham = 66 Thanet N = 92 Thanet S = 142 Heywood & Midd = 148 Rochester & S = 271 Eastleigh = 324
  • Surely people like Ken Clarke and (TSE) are now in the wrong party

    and me .....

    BUT THERE'S MORE TO BEING A TORY THAN EFFING EUROPE, apart from the nutjob wing...
    Perhaps the nutjob wing understands that you can't actually DO ANYTHING Toryish without coming up against the EU roadblock. What's the point of just 'being one' -liking the colour blue?

    If you truly believe that, it's a shame that voting UKIP will let in Labour, and put off an EU referendum (and hence removing that roadblock) for another 5+ years ...
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    edited September 2014



    What is it that terrifies you about UKIP?

    Well I'm very pro-EU and I'm also very pro-immigration (I don't much like the Conservative policies on immigration either, to be honest). I also find UKIP very intolerant in general. So I guess you can see that the sort of society that UKIP wants to bring about is not one that I'd feel very happy in. Aside from not liking the UKIP message I like even less the hectoring and divisive way in which Farage and his chums go about delivering it.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    philiph said:

    isam said:

    philiph said:

    isam said:

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    Which Conservative MP would it take to come out and say that Cameron isn't serious about doing what he says he will for you to think they are telling the truth?
    In the hypothetical world of a Cameron majority and administration post 2015, do you really think there is any chance that his MPs would allow him to sail through 2017 without having the Euro referendum. There is nil chance of that happening. He would have a mass and majority loosing walkout. (Assuming it was a manifesto promise)
    No one said he wouldn't have the referendum
    Just those that say they don't trust a word he says, can't believe him, look at his backsliding on Lisbon.........

    No never any mention.
    If we are debating the actions of the two defecting MPs it is a bit much for you to use the comments of anyone at anytime on the internet as an argument
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
    Makes his pusillanimity look worse frankly.
  • ItajaiItajai Posts: 721
    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.

    That's the problem with the modern Tory, they have bought into this idiotic idea that softly, softly works and that by trading with pariah nations and turning them into suppliers or customers we can ensure they modernise and democratise. That is purportedly why the aid budget was increased so vastly. In reality halving the aid budget spending half the saving on increasing the size of the military and the other half on reducing the deficit would make us safer as a nation. The UK Aid budget is £13.6bn this year, which seems insane given that we are running a ~£100bn deficit and we are slashing and burning at defence with a newly belligerent Russia, possible tension between China and regional powers, ISIL and the new threat from "lone wolf" terrorists on British soil. It is truly one of those policies from a Tory government that makes me wonder what the hell the leadership think voters want.

    You don´t understand. The Tory leadership, like the Labour leadership, hate their own voters. Living in their own little cocoon they all believe in ever increasing aid budgets. Has anyone seen how the politicos all gang up together to defend the foreign aid budget whenever this is asked on QT.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.

    Do you think it will be a bit of a bugger when a decently equipped modern military jams the control signal, which means the UAV will default to safe haven mode and fly home? Or don't you see it being an issue?
    Nothing is ever perfect or perfected and science, wether military or civilian is always in flux. Sure there will be failures and mistakes, there always are.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?

    It was great though, people who can remember life before the NHS are eternally grateful.

    What is the greatest achievement of this Govt?
    Digging the country out of the biggest economic snit pit ever made by Labour whilst taking low income workers out of tax altogether.

    Number of other countries which copied the NHS model ?
    Deficit reduction is miles off target you really think that is the biggest achievement.

    Re personal income tax allowance that was an LD policy wasnt it

    George wanted to cut 50p rate to 40p to prove we are(n;t) all in it together.
    You asked about what the govt had done - not whos idea it was or what the CoTE may have thought.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
    Makes his pusillanimity look worse frankly.
    So you say he panicked when he realised he was going to lose

    I point out he was massive odds on to win

    You say that makes it worse

    Are you stark raving mental or just unable to concede a point?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    edited September 2014
    I actually believe that one of the major policy errors has been to cut defence while also increasing the aid budget. For Con -> UKIP it I think it would rank among the top three reasons to defect as voters along with Europe and Immigration. It is the most mind-bogglingly poor policy of the current government. Plays badly with the core electorate, gives us a significantly less capable military, opens the door to pictures of unemployed soldiers alongside pictures of dictators and tyrants getting rich from our tax money. While the current leadership is clearly too close to this policy, I think a new leader could unwind it and freeze the aid budget in cash terms and hold back the savings to protect defence from a new round of cuts to balance the budget. We mustn't let defence as a proportion of GDP fall below 2%. It would send all the wrong messages to our enemies that Britain is no longer going to wield a big stick if we are f****d with and it will make us a target for international and domestic terrorists.
  • Surely people like Ken Clarke and (TSE) are now in the wrong party

    Nope.

    We're all broadly fiscal conservatives. Enough of us are socially liberal.

    I think a referendum is essential to sort out this country's future with the EU one way or the other.

    There's a wing that would rather have no referendum and Ed Miliband as PM that are buggering off to UKIP.
    Well said Francis Pym - I associate myself with your words!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    "Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP."

    The Baroness Warsi?
    Galloway?
  • Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    You just don't get it. He shouldn't have 'handled things better'; he shouldn't have 'listened'; he shouldn't have had more barbeques; he shouldn't have sneered less and developed an estuary accent -he should have simply realised that he is there to represent the party that people voted for, rather than the party being there to represent him. That's it. Not difficult.
    Just because he did not do the action you wanted, did not mean he did not 'listen' to that viewpoint, or indeed other viewpoints.

    There can be many views, but often only one action. Assuming that your views were not listened to just because another decision was made is the height of childishness. Any leader has to weigh up differing opinions, the facts they have, and their own opinions and prejudices before making any decision.

    Or are you claiming that the UKIP-favourable arm of the party is the only 'true' Conservative arm, and the only one Cameron should listen to?
    I am sure there were many differing opinions -the ones that Cameron has listened to being the ones coming out of Ken Clarke, Brussels, Strasbourg, the Lib Dems, and skype calls with Joe Biden. He's consistently capitulated to nearly everyone in the world with the exception of the Tory Party.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited September 2014
    Peter Kellner discusses the arithmetic of the rise of SNP and UKIP with it being harder for Conservative or Labour to form a majority government after the next election. See .....

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/29/ukip-snp-and-risks-parliamentary-paralysis/

    Whilst not a prediction, he sees it will be harder for either party to achieve a majority and also harder to form a coalition with far fewer Lib Dems to join with.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited September 2014
    Itajai said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.

    That's the problem with the modern Tory, they have bought into this idiotic idea that softly, softly works and that by trading with pariah nations and turning them into suppliers or customers we can ensure they modernise and democratise. That is purportedly why the aid budget was increased so vastly. In reality halving the aid budget spending half the saving on increasing the size of the military and the other half on reducing the deficit would make us safer as a nation. The UK Aid budget is £13.6bn this year, which seems insane given that we are running a ~£100bn deficit and we are slashing and burning at defence with a newly belligerent Russia, possible tension between China and regional powers, ISIL and the new threat from "lone wolf" terrorists on British soil. It is truly one of those policies from a Tory government that makes me wonder what the hell the leadership think voters want.

    You don´t understand. The Tory leadership, like the Labour leadership, hate their own voters. Living in their own little cocoon they all believe in ever increasing aid budgets. Has anyone seen how the politicos all gang up together to defend the foreign aid budget whenever this is asked on QT.
    But isn't the foreign aid budget comparable to our contribution to the EU?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
    Makes his pusillanimity look worse frankly.
    So you say he panicked when he realised he was going to lose

    I point out he was massive odds on to win

    You say that makes it worse

    Are you stark raving mental or just unable to concede a point?
    So why did he defect then if he wasn't going to lose ?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    Itajai said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.

    That's the problem with the modern Tory, they have bought into this idiotic idea that softly, softly works and that by trading with pariah nations and turning them into suppliers or customers we can ensure they modernise and democratise. That is purportedly why the aid budget was increased so vastly. In reality halving the aid budget spending half the saving on increasing the size of the military and the other half on reducing the deficit would make us safer as a nation. The UK Aid budget is £13.6bn this year, which seems insane given that we are running a ~£100bn deficit and we are slashing and burning at defence with a newly belligerent Russia, possible tension between China and regional powers, ISIL and the new threat from "lone wolf" terrorists on British soil. It is truly one of those policies from a Tory government that makes me wonder what the hell the leadership think voters want.

    You don´t understand. The Tory leadership, like the Labour leadership, hate their own voters. Living in their own little cocoon they all believe in ever increasing aid budgets. Has anyone seen how the politicos all gang up together to defend the foreign aid budget whenever this is asked on QT.
    But isn't the foreign aid budget less than our net contribution to EU?
    Not this year, the EU net contribution will be around £9bn, the foreign aid budget is about £13bn including the money funnelled through EU aid programmes.
  • Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.

    Morris_Dancer is referring to Matthew Goodwin's list of UKIP-friendly demographics:

    Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · Sep 28

    Rank in Ukip-friendly list: Clacton = 1 Rotherham = 66 Thanet N = 92 Thanet S = 142 Heywood & Midd = 148 Rochester & S = 271 Eastleigh = 324
    What's number 2 in the list?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014

    Itajai said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.

    That's the problem with the modern Tory, they have bought into this idiotic idea that softly, softly works and that by trading with pariah nations and turning them into suppliers or customers we can ensure they modernise and democratise. That is purportedly why the aid budget was increased so vastly. In reality halving the aid budget spending half the saving on increasing the size of the military and the other half on reducing the deficit would make us safer as a nation. The UK Aid budget is £13.6bn this year, which seems insane given that we are running a ~£100bn deficit and we are slashing and burning at defence with a newly belligerent Russia, possible tension between China and regional powers, ISIL and the new threat from "lone wolf" terrorists on British soil. It is truly one of those policies from a Tory government that makes me wonder what the hell the leadership think voters want.

    You don´t understand. The Tory leadership, like the Labour leadership, hate their own voters. Living in their own little cocoon they all believe in ever increasing aid budgets. Has anyone seen how the politicos all gang up together to defend the foreign aid budget whenever this is asked on QT.
    But isn't the foreign aid budget comparable to our contribution to the EU?
    What an interesting point. Why has no-one made it before? You should make it every day to redress the balance.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
    Makes his pusillanimity look worse frankly.
    So you say he panicked when he realised he was going to lose

    I point out he was massive odds on to win

    You say that makes it worse

    Are you stark raving mental or just unable to concede a point?
    So why did he defect then if he wasn't going to lose ?
    Maybe, just maybe, he disagrees with the direction the Tory leadership are taking the party and country?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    MikeK said:

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.

    Do you think it will be a bit of a bugger when a decently equipped modern military jams the control signal, which means the UAV will default to safe haven mode and fly home? Or don't you see it being an issue?
    Nothing is ever perfect or perfected and science, wether military or civilian is always in flux. Sure there will be failures and mistakes, there always are.
    Be a bit of a bugger if a drone is turned against its owner, by an enemy power.

    Interesting times on an aircraft carrier when your own robot is about to bomb you.
  • MaxPB said:

    Itajai said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.

    That's the problem with the modern Tory, they have bought into this idiotic idea that softly, softly works and that by trading with pariah nations and turning them into suppliers or customers we can ensure they modernise and democratise. That is purportedly why the aid budget was increased so vastly. In reality halving the aid budget spending half the saving on increasing the size of the military and the other half on reducing the deficit would make us safer as a nation. The UK Aid budget is £13.6bn this year, which seems insane given that we are running a ~£100bn deficit and we are slashing and burning at defence with a newly belligerent Russia, possible tension between China and regional powers, ISIL and the new threat from "lone wolf" terrorists on British soil. It is truly one of those policies from a Tory government that makes me wonder what the hell the leadership think voters want.

    You don´t understand. The Tory leadership, like the Labour leadership, hate their own voters. Living in their own little cocoon they all believe in ever increasing aid budgets. Has anyone seen how the politicos all gang up together to defend the foreign aid budget whenever this is asked on QT.
    But isn't the foreign aid budget less than our net contribution to EU?
    Not this year, the EU net contribution will be around £9bn, the foreign aid budget is about £13bn including the money funnelled through EU aid programmes.
    Well it's the same order of magnitude. Per head of population, EU citizens receive more in UK aid than non-EU.
  • MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
    Makes his pusillanimity look worse frankly.
    So you say he panicked when he realised he was going to lose

    I point out he was massive odds on to win

    You say that makes it worse

    Are you stark raving mental or just unable to concede a point?
    So why did he defect then if he wasn't going to lose ?
    Maybe, just maybe, he disagrees with the direction the Tory leadership are taking the party and country?
    So he prefers the way Labour will take the country instead.

    Got it.
  • MikeK said:

    saddened said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    @Smarmeron said:
    Has anyone worked out yet that "piloted" aircraft are becoming a thing of the past?
    One of the limitations of any fighter aircraft is the squishy bit that sits in the seats and is affected by G forces.
    Manned aircraft will still have a place, but less so.
    ----------------------------------------------------------------
    Thats true. In another decade or so the "pilots" will be sitting in offices or tents and guiding the plane from there. Something what the army* does now for drones. Would be good jobs for @TGOHF or @TheWatcher the let out their frustrations.

    * I said the army because there will not be any need for a separate air force once all planes are pilotless.

    Do you think it will be a bit of a bugger when a decently equipped modern military jams the control signal, which means the UAV will default to safe haven mode and fly home? Or don't you see it being an issue?
    Nothing is ever perfect or perfected and science, wether military or civilian is always in flux. Sure there will be failures and mistakes, there always are.
    Be a bit of a bugger if a drone is turned against its owner, by an enemy power.

    Interesting times on an aircraft carrier when your own robot is about to bomb you.
    Stealth?

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_(film)
  • MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
    Makes his pusillanimity look worse frankly.
    So you say he panicked when he realised he was going to lose

    I point out he was massive odds on to win

    You say that makes it worse

    Are you stark raving mental or just unable to concede a point?
    So why did he defect then if he wasn't going to lose ?
    Maybe, just maybe, he disagrees with the direction the Tory leadership are taking the party and country?
    So he prefers the way Labour will take the country instead.

    Got it.
    He defected to UKIP, not Labour!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,054

    MaxPB said:

    Itajai said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mr. Max, the Conservatives should be more rightwing. Defence, in particular, should've been ring-fenced. And the overseas aid expenditure is bloody stupid.

    That's the problem with the modern Tory, they have bought into this idiotic idea that softly, softly works and that by trading with pariah nations and turning them into suppliers or customers we can ensure they modernise and democratise. That is purportedly why the aid budget was increased so vastly. In reality halving the aid budget spending half the saving on increasing the size of the military and the other half on reducing the deficit would make us safer as a nation. The UK Aid budget is £13.6bn this year, which seems insane given that we are running a ~£100bn deficit and we are slashing and burning at defence with a newly belligerent Russia, possible tension between China and regional powers, ISIL and the new threat from "lone wolf" terrorists on British soil. It is truly one of those policies from a Tory government that makes me wonder what the hell the leadership think voters want.

    You don´t understand. The Tory leadership, like the Labour leadership, hate their own voters. Living in their own little cocoon they all believe in ever increasing aid budgets. Has anyone seen how the politicos all gang up together to defend the foreign aid budget whenever this is asked on QT.
    But isn't the foreign aid budget less than our net contribution to EU?
    Not this year, the EU net contribution will be around £9bn, the foreign aid budget is about £13bn including the money funnelled through EU aid programmes.
    Well it's the same order of magnitude. Per head of population, EU citizens receive more in UK aid than non-EU.
    What a stupid argument. There are real benefits to being in the EU such as single market access. There is nothing like that with aid spending. To draw any kind of comparison between EU spending and aid spending is frankly ridiculous. Also, I don't know how 50% higher spending on aid than the net EU contribution is close? It's a pretty vast difference.
  • TGOHF said:

    Have just had an email from Andy Burnham boasting about a great achievement from a Labour govt.

    Unfortunately it was 79 years ago - have they not done anything decent since ?

    The current welfare system, including the NHS, is based on the Beveridge report. Although William Beveridge, an economist and a Liberal MP, was defeated at the 1945 election, the successful Labour Party then implemented his proposals.

    As Lord Beveridge he went on to lead the Liberals in the House of Lords.

    So Liberals have as much claim to the NHS as Labour.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    Mr. Tyndall, really? There are some nutcases on the backbenches who think a PM who's permitted not one referendum but two that he didn't really want will suddenly renege upon a third he himself is putting in the manifesto.

    Cameron could've, and should've, handled things better with both backbenchers and traditional grassroot supporters over the last few years, but the backbenchers aren't exactly blameless.

    Carswell just wants to save himself, and Reckless seems to want five minutes of fame and the potential to be a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

    Carswell's Principle: I must defect out of loyalty to my career.

    You just don't get it. He shouldn't have 'handled things better'; he shouldn't have 'listened'; he shouldn't have had more barbeques; he shouldn't have sneered less and developed an estuary accent -he should have simply realised that he is there to represent the party that people voted for, rather than the party being there to represent him. That's it. Not difficult.
    Just because he did not do the action you wanted, did not mean he did not 'listen' to that viewpoint, or indeed other viewpoints.

    There can be many views, but often only one action. Assuming that your views were not listened to just because another decision was made is the height of childishness. Any leader has to weigh up differing opinions, the facts they have, and their own opinions and prejudices before making any decision.

    Or are you claiming that the UKIP-favourable arm of the party is the only 'true' Conservative arm, and the only one Cameron should listen to?
    I am sure there were many differing opinions -the ones that Cameron has listened to being the ones coming out of Ken Clarke, Brussels, Strasbourg, the Lib Dems, and skype calls with Joe Biden. He's consistently capitulated to nearly everyone in the world with the exception of the Tory Party.
    Clearly you have not listened to the counter argument. Its a bit much to totally junk the EU on the brash assumption it will be all right on the night
    http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21567914-how-britain-could-fall-out-european-union-and-what-it-would-mean-making-break
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    isam said:

    TGOHF said:

    Mr. Tyndall, comparing Clacton to Rochester it's recently been remarked in various places that the former was the number 1 UKIP target, and the latter the 271st UKIP target.

    As for sad smears and sour grapes: I'm not a Conservative. Or a UKIPper. I voted UKIP at the European elections. I want a vote, and I want us to leave the bureaucratic monstrosity that is the EU.

    These defections, aside from being motivated by a combination of self-serving cowardice and a desperate grab at the limelight, make that prospect less likely. Perhaps you think 5 years of Miliband as PM will change nothing. I do not. And if the Conservatives implode/split (always a possibility, perhaps now more than ever) we could have decades of EU-phile idiotic governments signing away ever more power (don't forget in the post-election interregnum Darling signed us up to the euro bailout fund even though we don't use the single currency).

    Clacton was not the number 1 UKIP target and that is clear from the candidate they chose. If you are going to try and argue a case at least try to be vaguely realistic.
    So Carswell panicked as he was going to lose to a total non entity ? Blimey.
    UKIP were 20/1 when Carswell was the Tory candidate
    Makes his pusillanimity look worse frankly.
    So you say he panicked when he realised he was going to lose

    I point out he was massive odds on to win

    You say that makes it worse

    Are you stark raving mental or just unable to concede a point?
    So why did he defect then if he wasn't going to lose ?
    Because he didn't believe in the Party he was representing any more

    He would have won whoever he stood for

    Why would you have a problem with that its just weird?
This discussion has been closed.