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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale says a defection is imminent

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited September 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale says a defection is imminent

Told by a normally reliable source another Tory UKIP defection is imminent. Stand by your beds.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Good afternoon, everyone.

    I was thinking a job swap might work. Get the Conservatives to run Hong Kong, and the Communist Party of China to deal with defecting MPs.
  • taffys said:

    Decide or decline sounds like one of those late afternoon quiz shows....

    'And coming up after Pointless, Decide or Decline.....where Conservative MPs face their careers ending if they can't decide to agree with David Cameron quickly enough...

    Decide or decline not a strong slogan, for the following reason. A successful slogan must have a hook as well as bait. The bait is sounding good, being catchy, being memorable, generating agreement. The hook is a lot harder -it's how the slogan applies only to what you're selling, and excludes the competition. 'It's the real thing' Coca cola's legendary slogan, emphasising the brand's authenticity set against the 'young pretender' of Pepsi, is an example of such a slogan.

    'Decide or decline' sounds ok, there's a fairly clever double meaning on decline, but there's not much hook -I could just as easily read this slogan and 'decide' it was time to vote UKIP. It only really works as an attack on Labour, and there are probably comparatively few Labour voters exercised by national decline -otherwise they wouldn't vote Labour.

    What they should have done is a double attack along the lines of the 'make believe dreams of UKIP' or the 'real nightmares of five years of Labour'. 'If you can't face a socialist nightmare, but don't believe separatist daydreams, vote Conservative'. It needs finessing obviously, but I haven't had long.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    FPT;

    TheScreamingEagles said:
    Just got 33/1 on Davies to be the next traitorous pig dog

    https://m.ladbrokes.com/ladbrokes/en/#!event_details?id=219441608

    ---

    Good luck, but I suspect the only one to profit on that market will be Shadsy.

    The way to make money out of any defection is to lump on UKIP to win the seat in 2015 before the bookies slash the odds.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 4m

    Ashcroft National Poll, 26-28 September: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
  • Decide or decline is bloody awful.

    I'm not a fan of slogans generally, but that's especially bad.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Rees-Mogg in the Farage Party?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    @TSE - so you're not tempted by Adam Holloway?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited September 2014
    Tax raisin', deficit spendin', more regulatin' Labour.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Mmmm, butterkist

    *crunch*
  • The great difficulty with this market is that even if you've correctly identified a future defector, there's no telling whether you've got Nigel Farage's choreography order right as well. I'm staying out of it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,121
    edited September 2014
    With apologies to the Thompson Twins (the 80s band, not the TinTin characters):

    We are defective
    We are select

    We are defective
    Come to collect

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    The great difficulty with this market is that even if you've correctly identified a future defector, there's no telling whether you've got Nigel Farage's choreography order right as well. I'm staying out of it.

    then factor in the change in mood between the honorable Carswell being deified and Reckless having manure poured over his head.

    Should imagine there are some knocking knees amongst the traitors..
  • Lennon said:

    @TSE - so you're not tempted by Adam Holloway?

    Not at evens.

    Philip Davies price is suspended.

    Blame Mike and I
  • It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.
  • TGOHF said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 4m

    Ashcroft National Poll, 26-28 September: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Looking at direct swing voters there are more Lab - Tory swing voters than those moving in the other direction.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,457
    edited September 2014

    taffys said:

    Decide or decline sounds like one of those late afternoon quiz shows....

    'And coming up after Pointless, Decide or Decline.....where Conservative MPs face their careers ending if they can't decide to agree with David Cameron quickly enough...

    Decide or decline not a strong slogan, for the following reason. A successful slogan must have a hook as well as bait. The bait is sounding good, being catchy, being memorable, generating agreement. The hook is a lot harder -it's how the slogan applies only to what you're selling, and excludes the competition. 'It's the real thing' Coca cola's legendary slogan, emphasising the brand's authenticity set against the 'young pretender' of Pepsi, is an example of such a slogan.

    'Decide or decline' sounds ok, there's a fairly clever double meaning on decline, but there's not much hook -I could just as easily read this slogan and 'decide' it was time to vote UKIP. It only really works as an attack on Labour, and there are probably comparatively few Labour voters exercised by national decline -otherwise they wouldn't vote Labour.

    What they should have done is a double attack along the lines of the 'make believe dreams of UKIP' or the 'real nightmares of five years of Labour'. 'If you can't face a socialist nightmare, but don't believe separatist daydreams, vote Conservative'. It needs finessing obviously, but I haven't had long.
    Good post.

    But can anyone confirm it is actually an official slogan, like 'The Big Society' or 'One Nation' ?
  • Lennon said:

    @TSE - so you're not tempted by Adam Holloway?

    Not at evens.

    Philip Davies price is suspended.

    Blame Mike and I
    Blame Mike and ME!

    You and Mike are the OBJECTS of that sentence!
    If in doubt, omit "Mike" and see if it makes sense!

    "Blame I" or "Blame me"?

    (And relax.)
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    edited September 2014
    Philip Davies betting market suspended. I had a bet on any further Con>Ukip defection, but not sure how this is defined!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Other potential defectors: John Baron, Owen Paterson, Chris Kelly.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    TGOHF said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 4m

    Ashcroft National Poll, 26-28 September: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.

    It was just yesterday that Ashcroft had another poll, I will take yesterdays since it has a sample of over 8000.
  • Boris writing earlier today stated that rumours of further defections were 'fanciful'.

    I wonder if fear of Boris sending the boys for making him look foolish round might deter any would be defectors?

    (Not that I necessarily expect any more. I was amazed that anyone else defected before Carswell had fought his by-election)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Can't the defectors just get on with it so we can all move on.

    All this stringing it out and playing to the gallery is going to start annoying people soon I think.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited September 2014
    The "any further MP defects" at EVENS is one of the all time great bets
  • taffys said:

    Decide or decline sounds like one of those late afternoon quiz shows....

    'And coming up after Pointless, Decide or Decline.....where Conservative MPs face their careers ending if they can't decide to agree with David Cameron quickly enough...

    Decide or decline not a strong slogan, for the following reason. A successful slogan must have a hook as well as bait. The bait is sounding good, being catchy, being memorable, generating agreement. The hook is a lot harder -it's how the slogan applies only to what you're selling, and excludes the competition. 'It's the real thing' Coca cola's legendary slogan, emphasising the brand's authenticity set against the 'young pretender' of Pepsi, is an example of such a slogan.

    'Decide or decline' sounds ok, there's a fairly clever double meaning on decline, but there's not much hook -I could just as easily read this slogan and 'decide' it was time to vote UKIP. It only really works as an attack on Labour, and there are probably comparatively few Labour voters exercised by national decline -otherwise they wouldn't vote Labour.

    What they should have done is a double attack along the lines of the 'make believe dreams of UKIP' or the 'real nightmares of five years of Labour'. 'If you can't face a socialist nightmare, but don't believe separatist daydreams, vote Conservative'. It needs finessing obviously, but I haven't had long.
    Good post.

    But can anyone confirm it is actually an official slogan, like 'The Big Society' or 'One Nation' ?
    I think at this stage it's just a single soundbite from the latest Osborne speech, so people are over-generalising from the way Tory loyalists began parroting his "long-term economic plan" to anticipate this being a general slogan, rather than a one-off speechifying soundbite.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    GIN1138 said:

    Can't the defectors just get on with it so we can all move on.

    All this stringing it out and playing to the gallery is going to start annoying people soon I think.

    That is the whole point of drip drip drip tactics.
  • Iain Dale -- how good are his UKIP moles? No point investing good money if this is just his Tory contacts passing on febrile gossip from conference.
  • Mr. Gin, indeed. They look like limelight-eager clowns, gagging for five minutes of fame.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    I know Iain mentions a Tory defection, but it would be a sizeable shift if it was a Labour MP!
  • Oh dear TSE


    Iain Dale @IainDale

    Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.
  • Mr. Isam, perhaps it'll come off, but it's only evens.

    It's not like backing a driver at 70/1 to win the title before the season even starts.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    AndyJS said:

    Other potential defectors: John Baron, Owen Paterson, Chris Kelly.

    Or it could just be a guest on Ian Dale's show.

    Iain Dale @IainDale · 26m
    2/2 On @LBC 530pm Extended Michael Gove interview 6pm Call @EricPickles 7pm Panel incl @TimMontgomerie, @SamCoatesTimes & Karen Lumley MP
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @Luckyguy1983

    You may have missed my post on the previous thread, but can you find any evidence of the OSCE "confirming" mass graves in Eastern Ukraine? I mean if they've confirmed it, that should be pretty big news and would be on their website.
  • Farage joining the Tories!!!!!

    Ok not.
  • Oh dear TSE


    Iain Dale @IainDale

    Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.

    Peer, donor, councillor, candidate? Someone who was went to a Young Conservative Ball?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Mr. Isam, perhaps it'll come off, but it's only evens.

    It's not like backing a driver at 70/1 to win the title before the season even starts.

    If you want to lay 10/11 I will have £500
  • Oh dear TSE


    Iain Dale @IainDale

    Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.

    That bloody [moderated] stupid [moderated] West Ham fan
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    isam said:

    The "any further MP defects" at EVENS is one of the all time great bets

    But not as good as Philip Davies at 33/1 when you've had a cheep from a little bird...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014

    Oh dear TSE


    Iain Dale @IainDale

    Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.

    A Lord?
    A newspaper?
    Rupert?
  • Could it be Iain Dale himself?
  • Mr. Isam, I don't bet with pbers, only with Ladbrokes and Betfair.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    An MEP...??
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Bill Cash? Cameron is just not that lucky.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    taffys said:

    An MEP...??

    Hannan?
  • Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Other potential defectors: John Baron, Owen Paterson, Chris Kelly.

    Or it could just be a guest on Ian Dale's show.

    Iain Dale @IainDale · 26m
    2/2 On @LBC 530pm Extended Michael Gove interview 6pm Call @EricPickles 7pm Panel incl @TimMontgomerie, @SamCoatesTimes & Karen Lumley MP
    Presumably you mean Lumley but surely Gove must have some questions to answer as Chief Whip. The man who pissed off the teachers has only been at Number 12 for a couple of months and already there have been two defections and a sexting scandal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Lord Ashcroft?
  • Oh dear TSE


    Iain Dale @IainDale

    Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.

    That bloody [moderated] stupid [moderated] West Ham fan
    Lord Tebbit?
  • Anyone fancy being guest editor ?

    It's fun but stressful in these fevered times.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Salmond.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014
    Ann Widdecombe?
  • DavidL said:

    Bill Cash? Cameron is just not that lucky.

    I've been impressed by Bill Cash this weekend pointing out the foolishness of the defectors.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    taffys said:

    An MEP...??

    Hannan?
    Yeap, crossed my mind too.
  • Not Hannan, see his twitter feed
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Could be a newspaper.
  • Anyone fancy being guest editor ?

    It's fun but stressful in these fevered times.

    It almost makes one yearn for a Scottish Independence thread...

    Let's have an Ed is officially piss-poor some time just to cheer everyone up!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited September 2014
    From this morning

    @DanHannanMEP: I won't be joining UKIP; but the Tories really ought to be talking to them. My column in @MailOnline. http://t.co/rlEbQipUDy
  • Must be Hannan
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    Bill Cash? Cameron is just not that lucky.

    I've been impressed by Bill Cash this weekend pointing out the foolishness of the defectors.
    I haven't forgiven him for what he did to John Major. Don't think I ever will.
  • Not Hannan, see his twitter feed

    and his interview with Brillo categorically no to defecting.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Oh dear TSE


    Iain Dale @IainDale

    Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.

    That bloody [moderated] stupid [moderated] West Ham fan
    Lord Tebbit?
    Has that not already happened (at least for all practical purposes like votes in the HoL)?
  • Anyone fancy being guest editor ?

    It's fun but stressful in these fevered times.

    It almost makes one yearn for a Scottish Independence thread...

    Let's have an Ed is officially piss-poor some time just to cheer everyone up!!
    I have an Ed is so crap he's the Jade Dernbach of politics piece for later in the week.

    No really.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Not an MP?

    Hannan seems the obvious one .. but he expilicitly denied it on the DP and if he was going to defect, surely he wouldn't have gone on there

    Can you imagine it was Boris???!!! haha

    "Bad for UKIP.. two big personalities etc etc"

    Who else?

    Howard? Tebbit?

  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Bill Cash? Cameron is just not that lucky.

    I've been impressed by Bill Cash this weekend pointing out the foolishness of the defectors.
    I haven't forgiven him for what he did to John Major. Don't think I ever will.
    Good point.
  • DavidL said:

    Oh dear TSE


    Iain Dale @IainDale

    Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.

    That bloody [moderated] stupid [moderated] West Ham fan
    Lord Tebbit?
    Has that not already happened (at least for all practical purposes like votes in the HoL)?
    I missed it if he did - would surely be symbolic if he officially did on Wednesday? would also be the 'right sort' for UKIP.....
  • Boris writing earlier today stated that rumours of further defections were 'fanciful'.

    I wonder if fear of Boris sending the boys for making him look foolish round might deter any would be defectors?

    (Not that I necessarily expect any more. I was amazed that anyone else defected before Carswell had fought his by-election)

    Let us assume for the sake of argument that the timing is being directed by Farage, rather than the individuals concerned simply coming to a decision at random points in time.

    The media right now is alive with rumours of further defections, and will continue to be so for a few days yet. There's no need to throw further fuel on the fire now. Then the media will get excited as interest in the Clacton by-election approaches, and its aftermath, and the date of the Rochester & Strood by-election will be set at some point in the same period.

    Then, in the quiet gap between the two by-elections, you launch another defector onto the media - October 27th. The whole merry-go-round repeats, and then to make sure UKIP are in the public eye in the run-up to the Autumn Statement you have another defection - November 26th.

    Every 30 days another defection, another UKIP by-election victory, another opportunity for the Conservatives to use the office of Government to set the narrative trashed and the UKIP bandwagon keeps rolling.
  • AllyMAllyM Posts: 260
    I can assure you all, that the Conservative to UKIP defection that is not an MP is not me!

    I've paid my dues to the Conservatives for another year. The ship is still steady. No UKIP for me, sorry, Nige.

    Panic over :)
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The Spectator ‏@spectator 11m
    Blog — Dan Hannan boycotts Tory conference (but promises he won’t defect to Ukip) http://bit.ly/1mGI2kx by @MrSteerpike

    Doesn't look good.
  • Anyone fancy being guest editor ?

    It's fun but stressful in these fevered times.

    It almost makes one yearn for a Scottish Independence thread...

    Let's have an Ed is officially piss-poor some time just to cheer everyone up!!
    I have an Ed is so crap he's the Jade Dernbach of politics piece for later in the week.

    No really.
    Now hang on, I said piss poor as a step up from crap but seriously that might be a step too far even for me. Now if we're talking Jack Dromey....
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    taffys said:

    An MEP...??

    A Lord ?
  • Has Tyke defected to Labour yet?
  • Of those suggested, Tebbit seems to me most likely. And though it would be a big story, I'm not sure it would help UKIP in their attempts to court Labour supporters.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Heartattack for TSE:
    JP Janson De Couet @ostercywriter · 1m
    Dan Hannan MEP defects to Ukip.

    Just kidding, I think.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Afternoon all and I wish Iain Dale would defect to UKIP. Frankly since he got humped by the LibDems in Norfolk he has been a right pain in the Tory arse. He spends too much time with Jacqui Smith on the sofa at Sky News.
  • KEEP CALM
    and
    DEFECT TO UKIP!

    :)
  • Anyone fancy being guest editor ?

    It's fun but stressful in these fevered times.

    It almost makes one yearn for a Scottish Independence thread...

    Let's have an Ed is officially piss-poor some time just to cheer everyone up!!
    I have an Ed is so crap he's the Jade Dernbach of politics piece for later in the week.

    No really.
    Now hang on, I said piss poor as a step up from crap but seriously that might be a step too far even for me. Now if we're talking Jack Dromey....
    His own supporters would rather have someone else.

    They know the result is going to be horrific.

    But enough about Ed
  • TGOHF said:

    taffys said:

    An MEP...??

    A Lord ?
    Lord Lucan?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    antifrank said:

    It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.

    At Conference time, there's no such thing as bad publicity. After the 2003 nightmare, Yougov produced a poll showing Con 38% to Lab 33%.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited September 2014

    Boris writing earlier today stated that rumours of further defections were 'fanciful'.

    I wonder if fear of Boris sending the boys for making him look foolish round might deter any would be defectors?

    (Not that I necessarily expect any more. I was amazed that anyone else defected before Carswell had fought his by-election)

    Let us assume for the sake of argument that the timing is being directed by Farage, rather than the individuals concerned simply coming to a decision at random points in time.

    The media right now is alive with rumours of further defections, and will continue to be so for a few days yet. There's no need to throw further fuel on the fire now. Then the media will get excited as interest in the Clacton by-election approaches, and its aftermath, and the date of the Rochester & Strood by-election will be set at some point in the same period.

    Then, in the quiet gap between the two by-elections, you launch another defector onto the media - October 27th. The whole merry-go-round repeats, and then to make sure UKIP are in the public eye in the run-up to the Autumn Statement you have another defection - November 26th.

    Every 30 days another defection, another UKIP by-election victory, another opportunity for the Conservatives to use the office of Government to set the narrative trashed and the UKIP bandwagon keeps rolling.
    Agreed - this is a nice strategy.

    The problem is every possible defector is being whipped into submission right now - hence all the MP's suddenly pledging allegiance. I guess you could read between the lines of some of the newspaper articles - eg, Henderson's (linked below), but it would still be difficult for him to defect at a later date without looking like a fool.
  • Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.

    At Conference time, there's no such thing as bad publicity. After the 2003 nightmare, Yougov produced a poll showing Con 38% to Lab 33%.
    so just how bad was Labour's last week then?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Could it be Iain Dale himself?

    Could be. Iain Dale has dropped hints that he could defect.

    Boris would be best.

  • Of those suggested, Tebbit seems to me most likely. And though it would be a big story, I'm not sure it would help UKIP in their attempts to court Labour supporters.</blockquote

    I doubt it will be Tebbit . He strikes me as the loyal sort (not in being 'on message' of course but the complaining but loyal sort ) He knows a defection will help Labour beat the tories and i doubt he will do that . Also his history , Thatcher , Brighton Bomb etc means he is attached to the tories

  • Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.

    At Conference time, there's no such thing as bad publicity. After the 2003 nightmare, Yougov produced a poll showing Con 38% to Lab 33%.
    The voters loved the "The quiet man is here to stay and he's turning up the volume." Speech

    The Tories were wrong to ditch him a few weeks later.


  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    A Lord ?

    Roger Lord??
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Burley asks IDS if it's him....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    We all know Han Dodges reputation on here, but his appraisal of the implications of Osborne's speech is quite good. (telly site).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.

    At Conference time, there's no such thing as bad publicity. After the 2003 nightmare, Yougov produced a poll showing Con 38% to Lab 33%.
    The voters loved the "The quiet man is here to stay and he's turning up the volume." Speech

    The Tories were wrong to ditch him a few weeks later.


    I expected the next poll to give Labour a 10% lead after that conference.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The only non-MP with any wider influence is Dan Hannan and he's said he won't be defecting. So whoever it is might not cause much of an impact.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RodCrosby said:

    Burley asks IDS if it's him....

    When we reached the point of asking IDS if he's leaving the Tory party you know you can restart the dead parrot sketch for them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    4/6 now that any further Tory MP to defect..

    still big IMO
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    isam said:

    4/6 now that any further Tory MP to defect..

    still big IMO

    Is that any MP at all? Or any further MP that isn't listed?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited September 2014

    TGOHF said:

    taffys said:

    An MEP...??

    A Lord ?
    Lord Lucan?
    Tim Montgomerie - UKIPHome.com
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    RodCrosby said:

    Burley asks IDS if it's him....

    "The Quiet Man is joining UKIP."

  • Pong said:

    Boris writing earlier today stated that rumours of further defections were 'fanciful'.

    I wonder if fear of Boris sending the boys for making him look foolish round might deter any would be defectors?

    (Not that I necessarily expect any more. I was amazed that anyone else defected before Carswell had fought his by-election)

    Let us assume for the sake of argument that the timing is being directed by Farage, rather than the individuals concerned simply coming to a decision at random points in time.

    The media right now is alive with rumours of further defections, and will continue to be so for a few days yet. There's no need to throw further fuel on the fire now. Then the media will get excited as interest in the Clacton by-election approaches, and its aftermath, and the date of the Rochester & Strood by-election will be set at some point in the same period.

    Then, in the quiet gap between the two by-elections, you launch another defector onto the media - October 27th. The whole merry-go-round repeats, and then to make sure UKIP are in the public eye in the run-up to the Autumn Statement you have another defection - November 26th.

    Every 30 days another defection, another UKIP by-election victory, another opportunity for the Conservatives to use the office of Government to set the narrative trashed and the UKIP bandwagon keeps rolling.
    Agreed - this is a nice strategy.

    The problem is every possible defector is being whipped into submission right now - hence all the MP's suddenly pledging allegiance. I guess you could read between the lines of some of the newspaper articles - eg, Henderson's (linked below), but it would still be difficult for him to defect at a later date without looking like a fool.
    No strategy is perfect, and there's obviously a reason why Reckless didn't defect at the same time as Carswell.

    Perhaps he simply needed more time to make his mind up - but then we all assumed other potential defectors were waiting to see whether Carswell held Clacton, so why not wait until then?

    You could well be right that this might end up as a case of trying to be too clever by half, but it looks as though the Conservative Party are desperate to flush out any remaining defectors as soon as possible, so it logically seems to be in UKIPs interest to prolong the Tory misery.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.

    At Conference time, there's no such thing as bad publicity. After the 2003 nightmare, Yougov produced a poll showing Con 38% to Lab 33%.
    The voters loved the "The quiet man is here to stay and he's turning up the volume." Speech

    The Tories were wrong to ditch him a few weeks later.


    The Tories were wrong to elect him in the first place.
  • TGOHF said:

    taffys said:

    An MEP...??

    A Lord ?
    Lord Lucan?
    Lord Elpus

  • DavidL said:

    Sean_F said:

    antifrank said:

    It does seem that Labour didn't get any conference bounce.

    Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.

    At Conference time, there's no such thing as bad publicity. After the 2003 nightmare, Yougov produced a poll showing Con 38% to Lab 33%.
    The voters loved the "The quiet man is here to stay and he's turning up the volume." Speech

    The Tories were wrong to ditch him a few weeks later.


    The Tories were wrong to elect him in the first place.
    The funny thing is the Tories actually did quite well at the ballot box under IDS. Backbenchers panicked because Blair twonked him at PMQs every week.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    isam said:

    4/6 now that any further Tory MP to defect..

    still big IMO

    Is that any MP at all? Or any further MP that isn't listed?
    Oh.. I am assuming any MP at all.. .

    if its any MP not listed then its not so good, and its also the biggest over round in the history of bookmaking
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Afternoon all and I wish Iain Dale would defect to UKIP. Frankly since he got humped by the LibDems in Norfolk he has been a right pain in the Tory arse. He spends too much time with Jacqui Smith on the sofa at Sky News.

    LIKE!!!
  • IDS never lost a General Election, unlike Hague and Howard :)
  • IDS never lost a General Election, unlike Hague and Howard :)

    Neither have I
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