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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale says a defection is imminent
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Iain Dale says a defection is imminent
Told by a normally reliable source another Tory UKIP defection is imminent. Stand by your beds.
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I was thinking a job swap might work. Get the Conservatives to run Hong Kong, and the Communist Party of China to deal with defecting MPs.
'Decide or decline' sounds ok, there's a fairly clever double meaning on decline, but there's not much hook -I could just as easily read this slogan and 'decide' it was time to vote UKIP. It only really works as an attack on Labour, and there are probably comparatively few Labour voters exercised by national decline -otherwise they wouldn't vote Labour.
What they should have done is a double attack along the lines of the 'make believe dreams of UKIP' or the 'real nightmares of five years of Labour'. 'If you can't face a socialist nightmare, but don't believe separatist daydreams, vote Conservative'. It needs finessing obviously, but I haven't had long.
TheScreamingEagles said:
Just got 33/1 on Davies to be the next traitorous pig dog
https://m.ladbrokes.com/ladbrokes/en/#!event_details?id=219441608
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Good luck, but I suspect the only one to profit on that market will be Shadsy.
The way to make money out of any defection is to lump on UKIP to win the seat in 2015 before the bookies slash the odds.
Ashcroft National Poll, 26-28 September: CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm.
I'm not a fan of slogans generally, but that's especially bad.
*crunch*
We are defective
We are select
We are defective
Come to collect
Should imagine there are some knocking knees amongst the traitors..
Philip Davies price is suspended.
Blame Mike and I
Mind you, given the Crucible atmosphere at the Conservative conference, it would be quite surprising to see a conference bounce for the Conservatives either.
But can anyone confirm it is actually an official slogan, like 'The Big Society' or 'One Nation' ?
You and Mike are the OBJECTS of that sentence!
If in doubt, omit "Mike" and see if it makes sense!
"Blame I" or "Blame me"?
(And relax.)
I wonder if fear of Boris sending the boys for making him look foolish round might deter any would be defectors?
(Not that I necessarily expect any more. I was amazed that anyone else defected before Carswell had fought his by-election)
All this stringing it out and playing to the gallery is going to start annoying people soon I think.
Iain Dale @IainDale
Update on UKIP defection. Sources tell me it's not an MP.
It's not like backing a driver at 70/1 to win the title before the season even starts.
Iain Dale @IainDale · 26m
2/2 On @LBC 530pm Extended Michael Gove interview 6pm Call @EricPickles 7pm Panel incl @TimMontgomerie, @SamCoatesTimes & Karen Lumley MP
You may have missed my post on the previous thread, but can you find any evidence of the OSCE "confirming" mass graves in Eastern Ukraine? I mean if they've confirmed it, that should be pretty big news and would be on their website.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11127832/Tory-MP-I-considered-defecting-to-Ukip-but-party-is-muddled-and-contradictory.html
Ok not.
A newspaper?
Rupert?
It's fun but stressful in these fevered times.
Let's have an Ed is officially piss-poor some time just to cheer everyone up!!
@DanHannanMEP: I won't be joining UKIP; but the Tories really ought to be talking to them. My column in @MailOnline. http://t.co/rlEbQipUDy
No really.
Hannan seems the obvious one .. but he expilicitly denied it on the DP and if he was going to defect, surely he wouldn't have gone on there
Can you imagine it was Boris???!!! haha
"Bad for UKIP.. two big personalities etc etc"
Who else?
Howard? Tebbit?
The media right now is alive with rumours of further defections, and will continue to be so for a few days yet. There's no need to throw further fuel on the fire now. Then the media will get excited as interest in the Clacton by-election approaches, and its aftermath, and the date of the Rochester & Strood by-election will be set at some point in the same period.
Then, in the quiet gap between the two by-elections, you launch another defector onto the media - October 27th. The whole merry-go-round repeats, and then to make sure UKIP are in the public eye in the run-up to the Autumn Statement you have another defection - November 26th.
Every 30 days another defection, another UKIP by-election victory, another opportunity for the Conservatives to use the office of Government to set the narrative trashed and the UKIP bandwagon keeps rolling.
I've paid my dues to the Conservatives for another year. The ship is still steady. No UKIP for me, sorry, Nige.
Panic over
Blog — Dan Hannan boycotts Tory conference (but promises he won’t defect to Ukip) http://bit.ly/1mGI2kx by @MrSteerpike
Doesn't look good.
JP Janson De Couet @ostercywriter · 1m
Dan Hannan MEP defects to Ukip.
Just kidding, I think.
and
DEFECT TO UKIP!
They know the result is going to be horrific.
But enough about Ed
The problem is every possible defector is being whipped into submission right now - hence all the MP's suddenly pledging allegiance. I guess you could read between the lines of some of the newspaper articles - eg, Henderson's (linked below), but it would still be difficult for him to defect at a later date without looking like a fool.
Boris would be best.
The Tories were wrong to ditch him a few weeks later.
Roger Lord??
still big IMO
Perhaps he simply needed more time to make his mind up - but then we all assumed other potential defectors were waiting to see whether Carswell held Clacton, so why not wait until then?
You could well be right that this might end up as a case of trying to be too clever by half, but it looks as though the Conservative Party are desperate to flush out any remaining defectors as soon as possible, so it logically seems to be in UKIPs interest to prolong the Tory misery.
if its any MP not listed then its not so good, and its also the biggest over round in the history of bookmaking