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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: September 25th 2014

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @isam
    The problem with "danegelt" is that it increases faster than the RPI rate, and is unsustainable.
  • Options

    Janet Street-Porter tore into Ed there, my forecast that the Mansion Tax will particularly annoy London Luvvies seems on the button.

    Hmm. There are so few Labour votes in Labour target seats in £2million homes even in London I suspect he'll ride it out to be honest.

    Meanwhile back to YouGov - I note that the forecasts of disaster from the Sun cover stitch up have completely failed to materialise.

    Only on PB.
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    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Firstly he has my deepest sympathies, believe me as a father I know exactly what he is feeling.

    As for Farage allegedly using the scandal in the by election, was Dennis McShane wrong to say it was partly his fault for being too PC? Or Shaun Wright wrong to resign?

    The fact that politicians have kept quiet for at least 15 years is disgusting, they still don't want to admit it now. Farage is 100% correct to say that politicians have let the victims down, because it is true.

    The real scandal is apologists like you and Bob trying to sweep it under the carpet.

    Are you accusing me of being an apologist for child rape?

    Frankly, I don't think you give two hoots about the victims. I think you just see an opportunity to attack lefties. That's pretty sickening, but not surprising given your posting record on here.
    Believe me, I spend my time campaigning for the victims of rape, victims of all ages, and whatever you may think of my posting record I would greatly appreciate it if you withdrew that remark.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    isam said:

    If anyone's still wondering about the possible defectors, although Ladbrokes market seems to be gone, surely a good thing to look for is anti interventionists? A handy "final straw" given tomorrow's recall

    UKIP is welcome to the cheese-eating surrender monkeys....
    I believe France under Marine Le Pen will acquire a different reputation, and by association UKIP will also not be characterized as WW2 France.
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    chestnut said:

    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Farage isn't speaking to the emotionally attached father; he's speaking to the broader audience who note the cultural and racial abnormality of these crimes and understandably wonder what the hell is/has gone on.

    One particular broadsheet seem to have adopted a see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil mentality towards this whole issue. It's suggests an ongoing determination to minimise this type of stuff. Given their readership and where they are commonly employed that's got to be a worry.

    Nigel4England asked how you'd feel if it was your child. I pointed out how the parent of one of the victims did feel. He feels Farage is seeking to make political capital out of his daughter's suffering.

    I agree with your second paragraph and, as I have said on here before, believe the left has much to answer for in creating a climate in which PC can be used as an excuse not to investigate crimes. Asian gangs have clearly exploited that, others have hidden behind it.
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    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Firstly he has my deepest sympathies, believe me as a father I know exactly what he is feeling.

    As for Farage allegedly using the scandal in the by election, was Dennis McShane wrong to say it was partly his fault for being too PC? Or Shaun Wright wrong to resign?

    The fact that politicians have kept quiet for at least 15 years is disgusting, they still don't want to admit it now. Farage is 100% correct to say that politicians have let the victims down, because it is true.

    The real scandal is apologists like you and Bob trying to sweep it under the carpet.

    Are you accusing me of being an apologist for child rape?

    Frankly, I don't think you give two hoots about the victims. I think you just see an opportunity to attack lefties. That's pretty sickening, but not surprising given your posting record on here.
    Believe me, I spend my time campaigning for the victims of rape, victims of all ages, and whatever you may think of my posting record I would greatly appreciate it if you withdrew that remark.

    Nope. You accused me of being an apologist for child rape, so I'm afraid you are just going to have to suck it up.

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    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    Janet Street-Porter tore into Ed there, my forecast that the Mansion Tax will particularly annoy London Luvvies seems on the button.

    Hmm. There are so few Labour votes in Labour target seats in £2million homes even in London I suspect he'll ride it out to be honest.

    Meanwhile back to YouGov - I note that the forecasts of disaster from the Sun cover stitch up have completely failed to materialise.

    Only on PB.
    Bob - First rule of PB....don't discuss a poll if it is good for Labour

    Second rule of PB - See first rule.

    Basil, Tramadol, long walk.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    By the way, the Tories have gained Frome North from the LD by 275 votes, with a little help of ex-LD Adrian Dobinson.
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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312

    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Firstly he has my deepest sympathies, believe me as a father I know exactly what he is feeling.

    As for Farage allegedly using the scandal in the by election, was Dennis McShane wrong to say it was partly his fault for being too PC? Or Shaun Wright wrong to resign?

    The fact that politicians have kept quiet for at least 15 years is disgusting, they still don't want to admit it now. Farage is 100% correct to say that politicians have let the victims down, because it is true.

    The real scandal is apologists like you and Bob trying to sweep it under the carpet.

    Are you accusing me of being an apologist for child rape?

    Frankly, I don't think you give two hoots about the victims. I think you just see an opportunity to attack lefties. That's pretty sickening, but not surprising given your posting record on here.
    Now, if you are pretty sickened at that, you can also condemn those who used the clerical abuse scandal to further their agenda.

    The BBC
    The Guardian
    Peter Tatchell et al.

    I await your reply with bated breath.
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    Janet Street-Porter tore into Ed there, my forecast that the Mansion Tax will particularly annoy London Luvvies seems on the button.

    Hmm. There are so few Labour votes in Labour target seats in £2million homes even in London I suspect he'll ride it out to be honest.

    Meanwhile back to YouGov - I note that the forecasts of disaster from the Sun cover stitch up have completely failed to materialise.

    Only on PB.
    The more that they try and debunk the idea of a mansion tax, the more that Labour will be associated with this highly popular tax-raising policy. Bring it on.
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    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Firstly he has my deepest sympathies, believe me as a father I know exactly what he is feeling.

    As for Farage allegedly using the scandal in the by election, was Dennis McShane wrong to say it was partly his fault for being too PC? Or Shaun Wright wrong to resign?

    The fact that politicians have kept quiet for at least 15 years is disgusting, they still don't want to admit it now. Farage is 100% correct to say that politicians have let the victims down, because it is true.

    The real scandal is apologists like you and Bob trying to sweep it under the carpet.

    Are you accusing me of being an apologist for child rape?

    Frankly, I don't think you give two hoots about the victims. I think you just see an opportunity to attack lefties. That's pretty sickening, but not surprising given your posting record on here.
    Believe me, I spend my time campaigning for the victims of rape, victims of all ages, and whatever you may think of my posting record I would greatly appreciate it if you withdrew that remark.

    Nope. You accused me of being an apologist for child rape, so I'm afraid you are just going to have to suck it up.

    Blimey, not very good at reading between the lines are you?

    Obviously Bob is and I really appreciate that, probably best if we never engage one another again on here.
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    Ninoinoz said:

    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Firstly he has my deepest sympathies, believe me as a father I know exactly what he is feeling.

    As for Farage allegedly using the scandal in the by election, was Dennis McShane wrong to say it was partly his fault for being too PC? Or Shaun Wright wrong to resign?

    The fact that politicians have kept quiet for at least 15 years is disgusting, they still don't want to admit it now. Farage is 100% correct to say that politicians have let the victims down, because it is true.

    The real scandal is apologists like you and Bob trying to sweep it under the carpet.

    Are you accusing me of being an apologist for child rape?

    Frankly, I don't think you give two hoots about the victims. I think you just see an opportunity to attack lefties. That's pretty sickening, but not surprising given your posting record on here.
    Now, if you are pretty sickened at that, you can also condemn those who used the clerical abuse scandal to further their agenda.

    The BBC
    The Guardian
    Peter Tatchell et al.

    I await your reply with bated breath.

    Anyone using child abuse merely to further a political agenda is worthy only of contempt.

  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dem gain Guildford Lovelace from Conservatives
    Partial figures LD 555 Con 225
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SouthamObserver
    The PC aspect can only be a small part of the problem. After all, we have had case after case stretching back to before "PC", and plenty of recent ones where "PC" wasn't remotely a factor.
    Logically and statistically, if we only see it from one direction, we solve nothing.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Lib Dem gain Guildford Lovelace from Conservatives
    Partial figures LD 555 Con 225

    That is a terrible result for the Tories.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Janet Street-Porter tore into Ed there, my forecast that the Mansion Tax will particularly annoy London Luvvies seems on the button.

    Hmm. There are so few Labour votes in Labour target seats in £2million homes even in London I suspect he'll ride it out to be honest.

    Meanwhile back to YouGov - I note that the forecasts of disaster from the Sun cover stitch up have completely failed to materialise.

    Only on PB.
    There may not be many of them, but they are very influential in the media.

    Do you think Paxo wants his taxes going up? Janet Street Porter clearly does not.


  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Lib Dem gain Guildford Lovelace from Conservatives
    Partial figures LD 555 Con 225

    Full result LD 555 Con 225 UKIP 63 Lab 32

    Approx swing 45% Con to LD

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited September 2014
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?
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    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver
    The PC aspect can only be a small part of the problem. After all, we have had case after case stretching back to before "PC", and plenty of recent ones where "PC" wasn't remotely a factor.
    Logically and statistically, if we only see it from one direction, we solve nothing.

    Of course - there is a long history of turning a blind eye to sexual abuse of children in the UK and there are many reasons for it. But there is no doubt in my mind that PC played a significant role in Rotherham, if only as an excuse for people to hide behind. It should never even have been an issue - and it was the left which made it one.

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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    The issue about Mohammed having a child bride is that this is not simply a historical fact - and it is true that women were chattels and married very young in most parts of the world at that time.

    It is that he is viewed by Muslims, so I understand , as a perfect man whose life is an example. Given that we are entitled to ask whether this particular aspect of his life is something that is repudiated, given the very different views we now have in the West to sex with children.

    It's not clear that it is: look at one of the first acts which Khomeini did when he came into power in Iran
    - reducing the age at which girls could legally be married to below puberty. Look at what is happening in Iraq and Syria and in Egypt and in Nigeria. Given the grooming gangs issues and the reasons behind it we are entitled to wonder whether there may be a connection - whether some may feel justified in what they have done because they can claim that they are following the example of their religion's founder. They may be wrong on this point. But the issue is one we can debate.

    Nick Palmer's suggestion that history should only be debated by historians is absurd. Depressing - though not surprising - that he thinks this is only a question of good manners (which we can all agree are a good thing) and not one of free speech. No wonder the last Labour government did not understand how offensive to liberty its proposals on religious hatred were.
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    Janet Street-Porter tore into Ed there, my forecast that the Mansion Tax will particularly annoy London Luvvies seems on the button.

    Hmm. There are so few Labour votes in Labour target seats in £2million homes even in London I suspect he'll ride it out to be honest.

    Meanwhile back to YouGov - I note that the forecasts of disaster from the Sun cover stitch up have completely failed to materialise.

    Only on PB.
    There may not be many of them, but they are very influential in the media.

    Do you think Paxo wants his taxes going up? Janet Street Porter clearly does not.


    I'm sure they don't. I don't even know if I like the tax - need to see the detail. What I do doubt very much is that Janet whining will be bad for Labour - just free advertising for a very popular policy a la the energy freeze whining.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Smarmeron said:

    @isam
    The problem with "danegelt" is that it increases faster than the RPI rate, and is unsustainable.

    Well I'm no politician, but I'd try and find out what their price for releasing all our hostages is, pay it, and say to all British citizens from now on if you go to that part of the world you're on your own

    If we bomb ISIS, we are going to kill the hostages
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    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Firstly he has my deepest sympathies, believe me as a father I know exactly what he is feeling.

    As for Farage allegedly using the scandal in the by election, was Dennis McShane wrong to say it was partly his fault for being too PC? Or Shaun Wright wrong to resign?

    The fact that politicians have kept quiet for at least 15 years is disgusting, they still don't want to admit it now. Farage is 100% correct to say that politicians have let the victims down, because it is true.

    The real scandal is apologists like you and Bob trying to sweep it under the carpet.

    Are you accusing me of being an apologist for child rape?

    Frankly, I don't think you give two hoots about the victims. I think you just see an opportunity to attack lefties. That's pretty sickening, but not surprising given your posting record on here.
    Believe me, I spend my time campaigning for the victims of rape, victims of all ages, and whatever you may think of my posting record I would greatly appreciate it if you withdrew that remark.

    Nope. You accused me of being an apologist for child rape, so I'm afraid you are just going to have to suck it up.

    Blimey, not very good at reading between the lines are you?

    Obviously Bob is and I really appreciate that, probably best if we never engage one another again on here.

    I have no problem with that.

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    NinoinozNinoinoz Posts: 1,312
    Anyone here think that the Guardian is very worried about Rotherham et al child abuse scandals? I mean, they've dragged a victim's father out in order to attack UKIP.

    Smacks of desperation.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Well Anne Milton MP should be a little worried then.
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    TSE: - Care is required as regards betting on the number of MPs to defect to UKIP prior to the GE. William Hill, the only bookie making this market, has the following wording relating to this bet: How many sitting MP's will defect to UKIP between the dates of the Clacton By Election and the UK General Election due in May 2015?

    N.B. the words in bold ...... i.e. the clock doesn't start ticking until after Clacton, so any defections before then wouldn't count. On that basis I've decided to keep my cash in my pocket.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Janet Street-Porter tore into Ed there, my forecast that the Mansion Tax will particularly annoy London Luvvies seems on the button.

    Hmm. There are so few Labour votes in Labour target seats in £2million homes even in London I suspect he'll ride it out to be honest.

    Meanwhile back to YouGov - I note that the forecasts of disaster from the Sun cover stitch up have completely failed to materialise.

    Only on PB.
    There may not be many of them, but they are very influential in the media.

    Do you think Paxo wants his taxes going up? Janet Street Porter clearly does not.


    I'm sure they don't. I don't even know if I like the tax - need to see the detail. What I do doubt very much is that Janet whining will be bad for Labour - just free advertising for a very popular policy a la the energy freeze whining.
    The cracking idea that kept energy prices up, without even being implemented? Pure genius. Whatever next, a zero carbon policy?
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Ninoinoz said:

    Anyone here think that the Guardian is very worried about Rotherham et al child abuse scandals? I mean, they've dragged a victim's father out in order to attack UKIP.

    Smacks of desperation.

    Just a bit

    They were the ones crying racist at The Times for mentioning it about five years ago, and their only way out is to keep shorting the market over and over again.

    Their readers love it, and most people just see it as noise.

    The Guardian tried to stifle the investigation as much as Shaun Wright and Joyce Thacker. Who'd buy it if they fessed up?
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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited September 2014
    @SouthamObserver
    The abuse of emotionally insecure and powerless children needs tackling at the source.
    Once that part is done, you can rip a new orifice in everyone who failed those, and other children.
    An old saying ...."Remember that when you point the finger scorn, three point back at you".
    (50 odd million, is a whole pile of new orifices)
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Smarmeron said:

    @SouthamObserver
    The PC aspect can only be a small part of the problem. After all, we have had case after case stretching back to before "PC", and plenty of recent ones where "PC" wasn't remotely a factor.
    Logically and statistically, if we only see it from one direction, we solve nothing.

    Of course - there is a long history of turning a blind eye to sexual abuse of children in the UK and there are many reasons for it. But there is no doubt in my mind that PC played a significant role in Rotherham, if only as an excuse for people to hide behind. It should never even have been an issue - and it was the left which made it one.

    Well said. To my mind you are one of the thoughtful posters I enjoy reading, partly because you have an intelligent left of centre view. I'm glad you're back.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209

    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

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    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited September 2014
    @MarqueeMark
    " Wonder how they will go down?"
    I wonder when they will go up?
    Whatever way you look at it, we are short of housing, just like we were after the "blitz"
    Cameron says that the "market" will take care of it, and it would, except for the fact that a shortage in the market, leads to better profits.
    As with a lot of other things, this leads not to a cartel as such (illegal), but to a certain amount of "group think" about the most profitable route (legal)
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    @Nigel4England - we know the father if the main prosecution witness in the Rotherham case - who was repeatedly raped by gang members - is sickened by Farage's use of the scandal in the by election. What is your response to him, given his child was a victim?

    Firstly he has my deepest sympathies, believe me as a father I know exactly what he is feeling.

    As for Farage allegedly using the scandal in the by election, was Dennis McShane wrong to say it was partly his fault for being too PC? Or Shaun Wright wrong to resign?

    The fact that politicians have kept quiet for at least 15 years is disgusting, they still don't want to admit it now. Farage is 100% correct to say that politicians have let the victims down, because it is true.

    The real scandal is apologists like you and Bob trying to sweep it under the carpet.

    Are you accusing me of being an apologist for child rape?

    Frankly, I don't think you give two hoots about the victims. I think you just see an opportunity to attack lefties. That's pretty sickening, but not surprising given your posting record on here.
    Believe me, I spend my time campaigning for the victims of rape, victims of all ages, and whatever you may think of my posting record I would greatly appreciate it if you withdrew that remark.

    Nope. You accused me of being an apologist for child rape, so I'm afraid you are just going to have to suck it up.

    Blimey, not very good at reading between the lines are you?

    Obviously Bob is and I really appreciate that, probably best if we never engage one another again on here.

    I have no problem with that.

    Oh good, I wouldn't have slept otherwise.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,088
    Not much talk I see of Farage's Ryder Cup video for our friends at Paddy Power. Weird to say the least, but I think he'll come out of it okay because if people think it's strange they'll think he's being self-deprecating. I'm not surprised to see him supporting Europe but I'm not sure how his friends at Fox News will feel about him mocking the States.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXhLMIDscTI
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,439
    edited September 2014

    Not much talk I see of Farage's Ryder Cup video for our friends at Paddy Power. Weird to say the least, but I think he'll come out of it okay because if people think it's strange they'll think he's being self-deprecating. I'm not surprised to see him supporting Europe but I'm not sure how his friends at Fox News will feel about him mocking the States.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXhLMIDscTI

    And who says Nigel is just a golf club bore :-)

    Props to Paddy Power, in terms of marketing / promo they are really very good at it, and I don't think it will do Farage any harm. Its a bit of fun, nothing more, nothing less. The only other famous politician at the moment who could get away with something like this is BoJo, any of the others it would be worse than McIlroy in those Santandar adverts !!!
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,260
    Speedy said:

    Is Atheism also kinda of a religion?

    No. If you define religion as "a belief in a supernatural entity(s)" and atheism as "a lack of belief in a supernatural entity(s)", then atheism is not a religion. Similarly if you define atheism as "a positive disbelief"
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    alexalex Posts: 244
    Political parties are often accused of being "policy lite" or "policy free zones" as a form of criticism. It seems to me that the real problem these days is that political parties is actually that political parties are able to come up with all sorts of policies as political slogans/soundbites to get them elected, but can simply ignore questions about whether and how these policies are workable/achievable in practice. And to some extent hide behind the convention that it is for the politicians to come up with the policies (and/or set the direction of travel), it is for the civil servants to work out how to achieve them (even if they are unachievable). Hence Alex Salmond being able to come within a whisker of persuading Scots to vote for Independence (prevented allegedly by the UK political leaders making unworkable pledges in response). Also hence Ed Miliband racking up votes with his Energy freeze policy, his Mansion tax policy, his Make more money from cigarettes policy...

    Similar examples on the right usually resolve around immigration targets.
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    alexalex Posts: 244
    edited September 2014
    Paradox of the Mansion tax. A currently £2m home attracting a £20k per annum "mansion tax" would, after factoring in the capitalised cost of the tax on a permanent basis, reduce in value to below £1.5m. Unless the £2m value related to the development potential of the land (eg. to create multiple flats which wouldn't attract the tax), rather than the intrinsic value of the 'mansion'.

    So a house worth £1.9m is worth £1.9m, whilst a house worth £2m is worth £1.5m! But on sale would be valued at £1.99m. Theoretically every house currently valued between around £2-2.5m would attract a market price of £1.99m.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited September 2014

    antifrank said:

    Since I've got you both on the same thread.

    Antifrank, I believe we had a gentleman's bet of £50 on Yes gaining at least 40% of the referendum vote? My nominated charity was Erskine - https://www.erskine.org.uk/donate-online

    MarkSenior, we had a £25 bet on the same outcome. Let me know how you want to pay.

    Done.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,015
    >@Speedy said:
    >Is Atheism also kinda of a religion?

    Of course. It's a beIief system resting on particuIar unevidenced assumptions. You try egetting them to admit it, though :-).

    >@viewcode
    >No. If you define religion as "a belief in a supernatural entity(s)" and atheism as "a lack of >belief in a supernatural entity(s)", then atheism is not a religion. Similarly if you define atheism >as "a "positive disbelief"

    That strikes me as a highIy tacticaI, and reductionist, definition of reIigion.

    If you demand supernaturaI entities, then neither Bhuddists, nor Quakers, nor (I think) foIIowers of Confucius, nor quite Iarge swathes of AngIicans, to name just 4, are aIIowed to be part of reIigions.

    It is aIso a straw man used by certain types of atheist to tie reIigion down to something specific they can attack.

    >positive disbeIief

    And that sounds Iike an attempt by Dawkins to soIve his marketing probIem.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    It's 6.30am, pitch dark. and the first tee bleachers at Gleneagles are filling up with fans.

    There's nothing like the Ryder Cup. It's the biggest event in golf.
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    MattW said:

    >@Speedy said:
    >Is Atheism also kinda of a religion?

    Of course. It's a beIief system resting on particuIar unevidenced assumptions. You try egetting them to admit it, though :-).

    >@viewcode
    >No. If you define religion as "a belief in a supernatural entity(s)" and atheism as "a lack of >belief in a supernatural entity(s)", then atheism is not a religion. Similarly if you define atheism >as "a "positive disbelief"

    That strikes me as a highIy tacticaI, and reductionist, definition of reIigion.

    If you demand supernaturaI entities, then neither Bhuddists, nor Quakers, nor (I think) foIIowers of Confucius, nor quite Iarge swathes of AngIicans, to name just 4, are aIIowed to be part of reIigions.

    It is aIso a straw man used by certain types of atheist to tie reIigion down to something specific they can attack.

    >positive disbeIief

    And that sounds Iike an attempt by Dawkins to soIve his marketing probIem.

    Atheism is the lack of belief in God. Would a lack of belief in, say Fairies be called a religion?

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    Quote: "In fact, as the UKIP conference starts in Doncaster tomorrow maybe it will be Nigel Farage who gives his leader’s speech and is able to announce not one but two new UKIP councillors to add to the fold."
    Well Farage is now able to announce at his conference that the Tories have lost two councillors - but to the LibDems rather than UKIP.
    Are we all looking at everything, from Rotherham to Syria to by-elections, through the prism of how events will favour UKIP?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,596

    So far, my prediction that we'd be seeing less convention bouncing this year has proved right - Labour lead up from 3ish to 6ish. I suggest it'll go down to 0ish next week, then return to 3ish. There just aren't a lot of waverers around.

    Must admit I'm skipping most of the lengthy posts on religions. My general feeling is that it should be legal, but bad form, to be nasty about someone else's religion. At a glance, that doesn't seem to agree with anyone else, as the choice of views seems to be "Being nasty about other religions is fine" and "Being nasty about other religions should be illegal". I'm an atheist, but isn't it simply slightly boorish behaviour to be horrible about something that other people think precious? Legal, just as it's legal to tell someone their child is hideously ugly, but not really defensible.

    Nick there is at least one person who agrees with you on this.
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    DavidL said:

    So far, my prediction that we'd be seeing less convention bouncing this year has proved right - Labour lead up from 3ish to 6ish. I suggest it'll go down to 0ish next week, then return to 3ish. There just aren't a lot of waverers around.

    Must admit I'm skipping most of the lengthy posts on religions. My general feeling is that it should be legal, but bad form, to be nasty about someone else's religion. At a glance, that doesn't seem to agree with anyone else, as the choice of views seems to be "Being nasty about other religions is fine" and "Being nasty about other religions should be illegal". I'm an atheist, but isn't it simply slightly boorish behaviour to be horrible about something that other people think precious? Legal, just as it's legal to tell someone their child is hideously ugly, but not really defensible.

    Nick there is at least one person who agrees with you on this.
    Two.
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    TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

    That would depend on whether the developers plan on building on sites as sensitive and rural as those in the Guildford Borough Plan.

    Local councillors have it coming - they've managed to wind up whole swathes of the local community. Fun and games to come.
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    antifrank said:

    antifrank said:

    Since I've got you both on the same thread.

    Antifrank, I believe we had a gentleman's bet of £50 on Yes gaining at least 40% of the referendum vote? My nominated charity was Erskine - https://www.erskine.org.uk/donate-online

    MarkSenior, we had a £25 bet on the same outcome. Let me know how you want to pay.

    Done.
    Thanks.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Is my memory wonky, or on the Syria votes last year weren't Labour theoretically in favour so long as additional commitments they wanted were met, but their amendment was defeated and then the government's motion was defeated which was taken to mean MPs were on the whole against any action, even though the Tory and Labour leaderships were both in favour of action, just quibbling over the details?

    Nah, what happened was Milliband promised to support Cameron's motion so it was put forward.

    He then decided to be cute and demand concessions as a hat tip to the anti-ar Red Liberals

    But he miscalculated, both motions were defeated and lots of people died.

    Well done Ed!
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    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

    That would depend on whether the developers plan on building on sites as sensitive and rural as those in the Guildford Borough Plan.

    Local councillors have it coming - they've managed to wind up whole swathes of the local community. Fun and games to come.
    I must admit that when I think of Guildford, 'sensitive' and 'rural' are not the first words that spring to my mind. :-)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Today's YouGov

    Scotland: SNP 45, Labour 29
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,015
    @IogicaIsong

    >Atheism is the lack of belief in God. Would a lack of belief in, say Fairies be called a religion?

    If disbeIievers in fairies invest as much seIf-worth in it as disbeIievers in God do, then it wouId have a simiIar function, yes.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    edited September 2014

    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

    That would depend on whether the developers plan on building on sites as sensitive and rural as those in the Guildford Borough Plan.

    Local councillors have it coming - they've managed to wind up whole swathes of the local community. Fun and games to come.
    I must admit that when I think of Guildford, 'sensitive' and 'rural' are not the first words that spring to my mind. :-)
    There's stunning countryside around Guildford. The Wey canal path through the town to Godalming one way and right into London another (which I have run and cycled) is fab. To the west almost as soon as you climb out of town you come onto the Surrey Hills which are breathtaking. It's also one of those places where you can see countryside from almost anywhere in town (or technically 'city').

    I believe there are more trees in Surrey than any other county in England. And private schools ;)
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,257
    That Farage ad thingy is hilarious. Otherwise, he was pretty good in his interview on BBC this morning.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376
    MattW said:

    @IogicaIsong

    >Atheism is the lack of belief in God. Would a lack of belief in, say Fairies be called a religion?

    If disbeIievers in fairies invest as much seIf-worth in it as disbeIievers in God do, then it wouId have a simiIar function, yes.

    I was going to join in this but you've done a better job than I would have on defining religion Matt: good one. As you point out, logical was being reductionist.

    I still like Ninian Smart's seven categories of religion, but they're not without flaws. It's a useful tool with students for showing the religion-like qualities of, say, football and indeed political allegiances. Marxism, for instance, is a quasi-religion.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,257

    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

    Depends where they are doesn't it. Here in Shropshire, the build hundreds of housing estates approach to economic recovery is going down like a cup of cold sick. The way Pickles, Boles and certain Tory councils have shredded planning controls will have some fairly interesting local impacts next May - and as much as dittoheads like you squeal Ed, Ed, Ed, it isn't Labour that's overseen it.
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    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

    That would depend on whether the developers plan on building on sites as sensitive and rural as those in the Guildford Borough Plan.

    Local councillors have it coming - they've managed to wind up whole swathes of the local community. Fun and games to come.
    I must admit that when I think of Guildford, 'sensitive' and 'rural' are not the first words that spring to my mind. :-)
    There's stunning countryside around Guildford. The Wey canal path through the town to Godalming one way and right into London another (which I have run and cycled) is fab. To the west almost as soon as you climb out of town you come onto the Surrey Hills which are breathtaking. It's also one of those places where you can see countryside from almost anywhere in town (or technically 'city').

    I believe there are more trees in Surrey than any other county in England. And private schools ;)
    I've done the North Downs Way, and loved ?St Martha's Hill? (If I've remembered correctly, then that's the highest point in the entire southeast of England). However that's not what people usually associate 'Guildford' with.

    But at least it's not Bracknell (shudders).

    (And aren't there some wonderful stepping stones on a tree-lined stretch of the Wey? Or have I got the wrong river/town?)
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Liberal Democrats won yesterday's by-election in Epping Forest district, in results announced last night.

    Lib Dem candidate Kim Adams won 607 of the votes to win the Epping Hemnall by-election with the district council citing a 28.5 per cent turnout.

    The by-election follows the death of Conversative councillor and former mayor, Ken Avey, in June.

    His son Nigel Avey was attempting to take over his father's role but the Conservative candidate only got 386 votes.

    Andrew Smith for UKIP got 339 votes and Anna Widdup for the Green Party got 69.
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    New Thread
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited September 2014

    New Thread

    But comments are disabled?

    Edit: Had they been enabled I could have claimed First!
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    Atheism is not in any sense a religion.

    The only people who seem to want to find a way of classifying a lack of faith as a faith are the religious.
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    Gadfly said:

    New Thread

    But comments switched off?
    I'll look into that.
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    audreyanneaudreyanne Posts: 1,376

    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

    That would depend on whether the developers plan on building on sites as sensitive and rural as those in the Guildford Borough Plan.

    Local councillors have it coming - they've managed to wind up whole swathes of the local community. Fun and games to come.
    I must admit that when I think of Guildford, 'sensitive' and 'rural' are not the first words that spring to my mind. :-)
    There's stunning countryside around Guildford. The Wey canal path through the town to Godalming one way and right into London another (which I have run and cycled) is fab. To the west almost as soon as you climb out of town you come onto the Surrey Hills which are breathtaking. It's also one of those places where you can see countryside from almost anywhere in town (or technically 'city').

    I believe there are more trees in Surrey than any other county in England. And private schools ;)
    I've done the North Downs Way, and loved ?St Martha's Hill? (If I've remembered correctly, then that's the highest point in the entire southeast of England). However that's not what people usually associate 'Guildford' with.

    But at least it's not Bracknell (shudders).

    (And aren't there some wonderful stepping stones on a tree-lined stretch of the Wey? Or have I got the wrong river/town?)
    Or Aldershot :)

    Ah yes: St Martha's Hill. I love it around there. The North Downs Way between Guildford and Farnham is magical and even the A31 on the Hog's Back is dramatic. It really is a stunning part of the world.

    I'm trying to think about the stepping stones.

    Guildford is quirky. I was chatting to a resident there who couldn't believe it was (and possibly still is) a marginal. Famously so during the Noughties.
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    MattW said:

    @IogicaIsong

    >Atheism is the lack of belief in God. Would a lack of belief in, say Fairies be called a religion?

    If disbeIievers in fairies invest as much seIf-worth in it as disbeIievers in God do, then it wouId have a simiIar function, yes.

    Now you are attributing how much being an atheist matters to the people involved.
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    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Ajob, I quite agree. It's perplexing why some religious people try and claim atheism's just the same as theism. It's like claiming not playing football is a sport.
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    chestnut said:

    Today's YouGov

    Scotland: SNP 45, Labour 29

    That's turning into quite a few "biased samples..."

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    New Thread is now working and open for business
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    While we wait for the next thread to open, some mixed news for Labour in the YOUGOV internals:

    Wants the kind of society I want:
    Con: 27 (-)
    Łab: 31 (+4)

    Led by people of real ability:
    Con: 22 (-1)
    Łab: 15 (+3)

    Leaders prepared to take tough decisions:
    Con: 45 (+1)
    Łab: 12 (+3)

    Seems to chop & change all the time:
    Con: 16 (-)
    Łab: 29 (+5)
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    Speedy said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m
    Lovelace (Guildford) result:
    LDEM - 61.3% (+47.0)
    CON - 28.2% (-42.8)
    UKIP - 7.0% (+7.0)
    LAB - 3.5% (-11.1)

    What happened in Guildford for a 45% swing to LD's ?

    Conservative plans to build several thousand homes on green belt were rather unpopular .

    Ed in his speech wanted to build a swathe of new suburbs and garden cities across the country. Wonder how they will go down?

    That would depend on whether the developers plan on building on sites as sensitive and rural as those in the Guildford Borough Plan.

    Local councillors have it coming - they've managed to wind up whole swathes of the local community. Fun and games to come.
    I must admit that when I think of Guildford, 'sensitive' and 'rural' are not the first words that spring to my mind. :-)
    There's stunning countryside around Guildford. The Wey canal path through the town to Godalming one way and right into London another (which I have run and cycled) is fab. To the west almost as soon as you climb out of town you come onto the Surrey Hills which are breathtaking. It's also one of those places where you can see countryside from almost anywhere in town (or technically 'city').

    I believe there are more trees in Surrey than any other county in England. And private schools ;)
    I've done the North Downs Way, and loved ?St Martha's Hill? (If I've remembered correctly, then that's the highest point in the entire southeast of England). However that's not what people usually associate 'Guildford' with.

    But at least it's not Bracknell (shudders).

    (And aren't there some wonderful stepping stones on a tree-lined stretch of the Wey? Or have I got the wrong river/town?)
    Or Aldershot :)

    Ah yes: St Martha's Hill. I love it around there. The North Downs Way between Guildford and Farnham is magical and even the A31 on the Hog's Back is dramatic. It really is a stunning part of the world.

    I'm trying to think about the stepping stones.

    Guildford is quirky. I was chatting to a resident there who couldn't believe it was (and possibly still is) a marginal. Famously so during the Noughties.
    Don't try too hard to remember: I got the wrong place! I was thinking of the stepping stones below Box Hill near Dorking. A beautiful spot.

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/jingleslenobel/4326713557/
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    Somerset CC, Frome North – 25 September 2014


    Conservatives 1111 (46.5%; +10.8%)
    LD Damon Hooton 836 (35.0%; -2.3%)
    Labour 163 (6.8%; -3.9%)
    Green Party 139 (5.8%; +5.8%)
    Independent 139 (5.8%; +5.8%)
    [UKIP 0.0; -16.2%]

    Majority 275
    Turnout 33%

    Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats.
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    Epping Forest DC, Epping Hemnall – 25 September 2014


    LD Kim Adams 607 (43.3%; +0.8%)
    Conservative 386 (27.6%; +6.5%)
    UKIP 339 (24.2%; -1.4%)
    Green Party 69 (4.9%; +0.6%)
    [Labour 0.0; -6.4%]

    Majority 221
    Turnout 29%

    Liberal Democrat gain from Conservatives
This discussion has been closed.