Must have some funny goings on for our polling analysts to query if this is true...
"Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place. And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking."
"I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max"
I believe Labour are about to get their act together in Scotland in a big way. The SNP have hit their high water mark and I suspect will soon implode. There's every chance another entity will form but it's very unlikely to affect SLAB's chances by the time of the next general election
Last weeks included Scotland. Today's Survation poll is only England and Wales, so Labour 3% ahead without Scotland. Some strange findings in the sub samples though as pointed out below though.
Must have some funny goings on for our polling analysts to query if this is true...
"Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place. And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking."
"I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max"
I believe Labour are about to get their act together in Scotland in a big way. The SNP have hit their high water mark and I suspect will soon implode. There's every chance another entity will form but it's very unlikely to affect SLAB's chances by the time of the next general election
Would be interesting to know your logic.
SNP have had about (the last time I heard) 6K new members since indyref (and their server has fallen over due to pressure so the rate of increase is limited by access). Wikipedia figure [edit:] for party membership total is 35-40K members though no date is given so I'm not sure when those were. Socialists and Greens going up pro rata.
Conversely, many anecdotal reports of Labour members resigning, such as this by Mandy Rhodes of Holyrood Magazine:
"I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max"
I believe Labour are about to get their act together in Scotland in a big way. The SNP have hit their high water mark and I suspect will soon implode. There's every chance another entity will form but it's very unlikely to affect SLAB's chances by the time of the next general election
Would be interesting to know your logic.
SNP have had about (the last time I heard) 6K new members since indyref (and their server has fallen over due to pressure so the rate of increase is limited by access). Wikipedia figure [edit:] for party membership total is 35-40K members though no date is given so I'm not sure when those were. Socialists and Greens going up pro rata.
Conversely, many anecdotal reports of Labour members resigning, such as this by Mandy Rhodes of Holyrood Magazine:
Asked about the level of public spending under the last Labour government, 85% of the candidates in our survey said the level of spending was “About Right”, 10% said it was “Too Low” with just 4% saying it was “Too High”. Asked how a future Labour Government should reduce the deficit, 42% say it should be done mainly through raising taxes, 18% by cutting spending, 7% by increasing borrowing with 4% saying there is no need to reduce the deficit. (29% not stated).
BBC liveblog, (the Matt cartoon above it is good as well)
"Former Labour and SNP politician Jim Sillars has called for Scottish independence to happen without the need for another referendum.
In a series of tweets, Mr Sillars said: Let Yes assert new indy rule - no more ref - majority votes and seats at Holyrood 2016 enough. What's this about waiting a generation - indy remains on agenda now. Queenie intervened for No as she did in 1979. So no more softly-softly - we go for Republic. I'll explain to all new #SNP recruits why the Independence Mandate matters at the next Party conference."
Sillars sounds like a vicious person. Salmond was right to disown him. He's the kind of person who would call for the use of guns.
Last weeks included Scotland. Today's Survation poll is only England and Wales, so Labour 3% ahead without Scotland. Some strange findings in the sub samples though as pointed out below though.
I don't think that's true, they list the SNP as one of the parties.
Last weeks included Scotland. Today's Survation poll is only England and Wales, so Labour 3% ahead without Scotland. Some strange findings in the sub samples though as pointed out below though.
Oops, you're right. I checked it included SNP but on a closer look they're only at 0.4%. Better take it down off the Wikipedia page then.
Mike has often talked about the way the electoral odds are stacked in Ed M's favour this time: he's got of wedge of, say 10%, of leftish LibDems who are sticking with him, so far.
However, reading today's Sunday Times I came across an interesting polling factoid from Peter Kellner: an 8% swing from Labour to SNP would lose Ed M 19 seats in Scotland.
Now putting all the EV4EL to one side and assuming nothing has changed, the loss of 19 seats could easily deprive him of a working majority.
I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max (which technically it won't have, even if the Bill gets 2nd reading passed by Burns Night). Ed M is not popular in Scottish Labour. They will need Flash Gordon to shore the vote up - maybe Cameron's best next move is to offer him a plum international finance job and get him out of the way.
Perhaps we should be watching SNP/Labour polling in as much detail as the Liberal Dem vote collapse?
Exactly. Especially in view of OGH's recent tweet (I assume he reckons this polling is kosher and not a subsample etc.):
SNP take 16% lead in post-IndyRef 2016 Holyrood election (const) from Survation has %:- SNP 49.2 LAB 32.7 CON 13.4 LD 3.4 UKIP 0.2 GRN 0.6
THis is of course for the Scottish Parliament, but it is the constituency element which is effectively FPTP. Admittedly still not Westminster, but interesting. NOTA is of course important for Westminster voting in Scotland, but does no longer work so well for Labour if (a) Labour becomes regarded as the Tories little helpers, vide indyref,, and (b) the SNP look credible alternatives to perform the NOTA mission, and (c) the SNP are the only credible Westminster alternative to insist on the performance of the Vow.
And bear in mind the risk of a split in the Labour vote caused by the revival of the Socialists who have had a membership boom over the last two days alongside the Greens and SNP, and indeed also any splinter Labour group that might form.
And the tanks are already parked in George Square thanks to the Yes vote in Glasgow - but this time they are not UK Government ones, but SNP ones.
One might also wonder who will lead SLAB into the next UKGE. Would anyone want to replace Ms Lamont till after that?
There's already been talk of Jim Murphy taking the role:
It's bad enough that thanks to edukashn, edukashn, edukashn a huge mass of the electorate believe in the magic money tree. Worse, a significant proportion of Labour candidates believe in throwing in free unicorns and a winged pegasus to boot.
"I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max"
I believe Labour are about to get their act together in Scotland in a big way. The SNP have hit their high water mark and I suspect will soon implode. There's every chance another entity will form but it's very unlikely to affect SLAB's chances by the time of the next general election
Would be interesting to know your logic.
SNP have had about (the last time I heard) 6K new members since indyref (and their server has fallen over due to pressure so the rate of increase is limited by access). Wikipedia figure [edit:] for party membership total is 35-40K members though no date is given so I'm not sure when those were. Socialists and Greens going up pro rata.
Conversely, many anecdotal reports of Labour members resigning, such as this by Mandy Rhodes of Holyrood Magazine:
Interesting poll of Labour candidates - 7% prefer to close the deficit by greater borrowing.
Are you serious? Idiots!
I presume by this they mean that the deficit should be made up by increasing the overall debt. Absolutely nothing wrong with that, in economic terms, as long as UK has wherewithal to service the debt. Plenty of scope to issue gilts for pensions firms, insurance, foreign investors etc etc. Politically however its another matter.
Must have some funny goings on for our polling analysts to query if this is true...
"Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place. And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking."
It's bad enough that thanks to edukashn, edukashn, edukashn a huge mass of the electorate believe in the magic money tree. Worse, a significant proportion of Labour candidates believe in throwing in free unicorns and a winged pegasus to boot.
Remind us again of George Osborne's record borrowing.
Must have some funny goings on for our polling analysts to query if this is true...
"Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place. And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking."
"I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max"
I believe Labour are about to get their act together in Scotland in a big way. The SNP have hit their high water mark and I suspect will soon implode. There's every chance another entity will form but it's very unlikely to affect SLAB's chances by the time of the next general election
Would be interesting to know your logic.
SNP have had about (the last time I heard) 6K new members since indyref (and their server has fallen over due to pressure so the rate of increase is limited by access). Wikipedia figure [edit:] for party membership total is 35-40K members though no date is given so I'm not sure when those were. Socialists and Greens going up pro rata.
Conversely, many anecdotal reports of Labour members resigning, such as this by Mandy Rhodes of Holyrood Magazine:
I would've been cynical about reports of people leaving @scottishlabour after #indyref if it weren't for friends doing just that."
Early days yet, but it's interesting.
Why are people leaving Labour & why joining SNP now?
What do they hope to achieve?
(Genuine question).
Indeed. Good questions. For one thing, I don't know that it is the same people, or what proportion are actually swapping parties.
For another, the situation's still developing as people think through their reactions.
On what they hope to achieve: early days yet, but for one thing, they are plainly seeking to hold the anti-indy coalition's feet to the fire on their promises, for one thing, as Mr Salmond put it IIRC.
Mike has often talked about the way the electoral odds are stacked in Ed M's favour this time: he's got of wedge of, say 10%, of leftish LibDems who are sticking with him, so far.
However, reading today's Sunday Times I came across an interesting polling factoid from Peter Kellner: an 8% swing from Labour to SNP would lose Ed M 19 seats in Scotland.
Now putting all the EV4EL to one side and assuming nothing has changed, the loss of 19 seats could easily deprive him of a working majority.
I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max (which technically it won't have, even if the Bill gets 2nd reading passed by Burns Night). Ed M is not popular in Scottish Labour. They will need Flash Gordon to shore the vote up - maybe Cameron's best next move is to offer him a plum international finance job and get him out of the way.
Perhaps we should be watching SNP/Labour polling in as much detail as the Liberal Dem vote collapse?
Exactly. Especially in view of OGH's recent tweet (I assume he reckons this polling is kosher and not a subsample etc.):
SNP take 16% lead in post-IndyRef 2016 Holyrood election (const) from Survation has %:- SNP 49.2 LAB 32.7 CON 13.4 LD 3.4 UKIP 0.2 GRN 0.6
THis is of course for the Scottish Parliament, but it is the constituency element which is effectively FPTP. Admittedly still not Westminster, but interesting. NOTA is of course important for Westminster voting in Scotland, but does no longer work so well for Labour if (a) Labour becomes regarded as the Tories little helpers, vide indyref,, and (b) the SNP look credible alternatives to perform the NOTA mission, and (c) the SNP are the only credible Westminster alternative to insist on the performance of the Vow.
And bear in mind the risk of a split in the Labour vote caused by the revival of the Socialists who have had a membership boom over the last two days alongside the Greens and SNP, and indeed also any splinter Labour group that might form.
And the tanks are already parked in George Square thanks to the Yes vote in Glasgow - but this time they are not UK Government ones, but SNP ones.
One might also wonder who will lead SLAB into the next UKGE. Would anyone want to replace Ms Lamont till after that?
There's already been talk of Jim Murphy taking the role:
It's bad enough that thanks to edukashn, edukashn, edukashn a huge mass of the electorate believe in the magic money tree. Worse, a significant proportion of Labour candidates believe in throwing in free unicorns and a winged pegasus to boot.
Remind us again of George Osborne's record borrowing.
It's bad enough that thanks to edukashn, edukashn, edukashn a huge mass of the electorate believe in the magic money tree. Worse, a significant proportion of Labour candidates believe in throwing in free unicorns and a winged pegasus to boot.
It's bad enough that thanks to edukashn, edukashn, edukashn a huge mass of the electorate believe in the magic money tree. Worse, a significant proportion of Labour candidates believe in throwing in free unicorns and a winged pegasus to boot.
Remind us again of George Osborne's record borrowing.
Which bad as it is is only a fraction of the one Labour would be running.
Here is an idea that Labour ought to follow - From the LA Times - The Los Angeles Fire Commission adopted new rules Tuesday to prevent conflicts of interest and reform a firefighter hiring process that a city report called “tainted” by concerns of nepotism. The changes will require all LAFD officials involved in the selection process to notify superiors when they have a friend or family member in the applicant pool. Those officials would be reassigned if their participation in screening candidates or supervising the process could be perceived as a conflict of interest.
I presume by this they mean that the deficit should be made up by increasing the overall debt. Absolutely nothing wrong with that, in economic terms, as long as UK has wherewithal to service the debt.
I am a simple creature. I do not believe that the way to reduce debt is to increase it.
Whilst we are talking about delusional lefties, can someone tell me when we re-elected Gordon Brown to the job of PM again?
"Promises made to Scotland on further devolution will be upheld, Gordon Brown has insisted.
The former prime minister said he would ensure the commitment given by the leaders of the three main Westminster parties is adhered to."
Must have some funny goings on for our polling analysts to query if this is true...
"Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place. And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking."
Perhaps it's natural to expect that under devolution, separate parties with a national identity must emerge. I have already said I think the Scottish Tories need to break away. Perhaps the other parties should liberate their own Scottish wings.
When Spurs lose to Forest on Weds and are stuffed by Arsenal next weekend, It'll be time for Alan Pardew to relax..... Poch will be gone by Xmas...
Moyes next?
Has Poch learned to speak English yet? Or is he not bothering?
He's still got the cab running!
Didn't rate him as much as so many pundits when at Saints, players not him from the games I saw, nothing 'game changing' in his tactics or substitutions. Hope I'll be proven wrong but don't expect to be. We could easily lose by 6 next weekend.
SNP take 16% lead in post-IndyRef 2016 Holyrood election (const) from Survation has %:- SNP 49.2 LAB 32.7 CON 13.4 LD 3.4 UKIP 0.2 GRN 0.6
THis is of course for the Scottish Parliament, but it is the constituency element which is effectively FPTP. Admittedly still not Westminster, but interesting. NOTA is of course important for Westminster voting in Scotland, but does no longer work so well for Labour if (a) Labour becomes regarded as the Tories little helpers, vide indyref,, and (b) the SNP look credible alternatives to perform the NOTA mission, and (c) the SNP are the only credible Westminster alternative to insist on the performance of the Vow.
And bear in mind the risk of a split in the Labour vote caused by the revival of the Socialists who have had a membership boom over the last two days alongside the Greens and SNP, and indeed also any splinter Labour group that might form.
And the tanks are already parked in George Square thanks to the Yes vote in Glasgow - but this time they are not UK Government ones, but SNP ones.
One might also wonder who will lead SLAB into the next UKGE. Would anyone want to replace Ms Lamont till after that?
There's already been talk of Jim Murphy taking the role:
Mmm, so there was - I'd forgotten about that June report. But now he knows his MP's seat is safer than it looked at one point (i.e. it won't disappear in 2016), he doesn't *need* a MSP seat. He could of course use the good karma accumulated from his Irn-Bru-and-eggs tour of Scotland to come back north, but why bother he can parlay that into a reincarnation at Westminster.
Also, being SLAB head honcho isn;t all it is cracked up to be, it seems. 'Leading' SLAB as leader of the Labour delegation in Holyrood means that you are supposed to be I/c all MSPs and MPs and activists for Scottish constituencies, but in practice I'm not sure that some Labour MPs take much notice of what they consider mere MSPs. The Falkirk affair rather confirmed the weakness of the position, and indyref probably won't help. On the other hand, a stronger leader ...
Must have some funny goings on for our polling analysts to query if this is true...
"Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place. And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking."
I think that in the past some have expounded an exclusionary vision of Englishness which means that only people born and bred here of people that were born and bred here can properly be considered English (as opposed to British). I don't think it has ever been close to a majority view, but it seems to be one that certain people on the left have heard - mainly because most normal English people do not spend that much time thinking or talking about their Englishness.
Well, there are two definitions of Englishness. One is an ethnic one - someone from Anglo Saxon/Viking/British stock, with some Norman/Huguenot/Flemish from medieval population movements. White, native English speaker, etc. And the other is a civic one - someone who lives here and is a citizen (or would be if we had English citizenship) and can come from any ethnic background. TSE, for example, is one but not the other. I think there is some discomfort for some people talking about "Englishness" as they think it is the purely ethnic version that is meant - and it's not a particularly useful definition. I have no problem thinking of Moeen Ali or TSE or Nasser Hussain as Englishmen, but I am sure there are some that do.
I think of @TSE as more like Mark Ramprakash than Nasser Hussain...
Comments
Must have some funny goings on for our polling analysts to query if this is true...
"Regionally, Ukip did best in the Midlands where they polled nearly 31 percent of the vote, more than any other party. Labour were narrowly behind them in that region, with the Conservatives trailing in third place.
And in London, it was Labour who was pushed into third place behind the Conservatives and Ukip. The working class boroughs of London have traditionally been Labour strongholds, and the party currently holds the majority of London’s 76 constituencies, with 38 Labour MPs calling London ‘home’. There are also 28 Conservative MPs in the city and seven Liberal Democrats. Ukip will be hoping for a win in particular in the currently Labour held constituency of Dagenham and Rainham in the east of London; they are also challenging the outspoken Labour Member of Parliament Margaret Hodge in the neighbouring constituency of Barking."
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/09/21/Ukip-23-Percent-Latest-Poll
"I think Labour have a mountain to climb to hold back SNP in the GE, especially if nothing has happened on Devo-Max"
I believe Labour are about to get their act together in Scotland in a big way. The SNP have hit their high water mark and I suspect will soon implode. There's every chance another entity will form but it's very unlikely to affect SLAB's chances by the time of the next general election
2. What..?
3. I would, but judging by the type of tea you stick your name on you wouldn't appreciate it properly.
SNP have had about (the last time I heard) 6K new members since indyref (and their server has fallen over due to pressure so the rate of increase is limited by access). Wikipedia figure [edit:] for party membership total is 35-40K members though no date is given so I'm not sure when those were. Socialists and Greens going up pro rata.
Conversely, many anecdotal reports of Labour members resigning, such as this by Mandy Rhodes of Holyrood Magazine:
"mandy rhodes @holyroodmandy · 6h
I would've been cynical about reports of people leaving @scottishlabour after #indyref if it weren't for friends doing just that."
Early days yet, but it's interesting.
What do they hope to achieve?
(Genuine question).
Asked about the level of public spending under the last Labour government, 85% of the candidates in our survey said the level of spending was “About Right”, 10% said it was “Too Low” with just 4% saying it was “Too High”. Asked how a future Labour Government should reduce the deficit, 42% say it should be done mainly through raising taxes, 18% by cutting spending, 7% by increasing borrowing with 4% saying there is no need to reduce the deficit. (29% not stated).
"Are you serious? Idiots!"
We've missed your intellectual rigour
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/singapore-post-race-analysis.html
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/pressure-on-murphy-to-take-on-leadership-of-labour-in-scotland.24558360
For a few, they hope it will help push another Referendum and said few will probably get more involved in Politics.
For the majority, a bandwagon. In any case, it's getting tiresome all this '45' tripe.
Whatever happened to everyone celebrating a 'carnival of democracy'?
For another, the situation's still developing as people think through their reactions.
On what they hope to achieve: early days yet, but for one thing, they are plainly seeking to hold the anti-indy coalition's feet to the fire on their promises, for one thing, as Mr Salmond put it IIRC.
Not true - these days he just borrows CDs.
Whilst we are talking about delusional lefties, can someone tell me when we re-elected Gordon Brown to the job of PM again?
"Promises made to Scotland on further devolution will be upheld, Gordon Brown has insisted.
The former prime minister said he would ensure the commitment given by the leaders of the three main Westminster parties is adhered to."
http://www.itv.com/news/border/update/2014-09-20/devolution-promises-will-be-upheld-says-brown/
The Futures Bright. The Futures Brown.
Moyes next?
Didn't rate him as much as so many pundits when at Saints, players not him from the games I saw, nothing 'game changing' in his tactics or substitutions. Hope I'll be proven wrong but don't expect to be. We could easily lose by 6 next weekend.
Also, being SLAB head honcho isn;t all it is cracked up to be, it seems. 'Leading' SLAB as leader of the Labour delegation in Holyrood means that you are supposed to be I/c all MSPs and MPs and activists for Scottish constituencies, but in practice I'm not sure that some Labour MPs take much notice of what they consider mere MSPs. The Falkirk affair rather confirmed the weakness of the position, and indyref probably won't help. On the other hand, a stronger leader ...