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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on ov
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling
Two things gave that 2% YES lead its greater potency: the advance hyping on Twitter by Rupert Murdoch and the fact that until a few weeks beforehand YouGov had been the firm showing NO with 19-20% leads. Those earlier polls came at a time when others firms like ICM, Panelbase and Survation had the battle much closer.
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PS - I'm not convinced, I think it would have been a lot closer if Gordon Brown had not got involved and made THAT speech.
Durrr.
As for linking "English votes for English laws" to the so-called "Vow", this is to welcomed. Scotland has voted to remain in the United Kingdom, and cannot vote on secession again without the consent of the United Kingdom. The region's inhabitants must now learn that it cannot expect special privileges at the expense of the people of England, which were promised without consulting the latter, after constitutional policy was outsourced to a Scot decisively rejected by England at the last election, on the basis of a rogue YouGov poll.
UKIP do not have the same position as Labour. Firstly they want EV4EL in the interim. Secondly they want an English parliament.
I don't see what YouGov have done wrong here, sure that poll might have been at the upper end of things but statistically it was perfectly valid considering what all the other pollsters were saying, the big fault lies with the media and the politicians who don't understand how polling (and statistics generally) works.
Yes, but in a limited way. The rogue poll took undue importance because the Westminster parties could react to it and make further offers. The very nature of the EU means that it will be next to impossible for them to offer further concessions in such a timely manner, and such polls will just be campaign fluff.
The lessons for an EU referendum come from the campaigns, not the polling. The SNP did not have answers to some fundamental questions, and IMHO they lost because of it. The BOOers will need to ensure that they have answered the fundamental questions at the start of the campaign.
Although they should have an easier job of it, especially as the critical currency issue is not a concern. On the other hand, the AV and Indy referendums seem to indicate that is it hard to get the public to vote for a change to the status quo.
As it had the potential to get Mike into trouble, it was removed.
We don't discuss moderation issues on the thread
Please observe
Which is a very sad position for any English politician to be in. He really doesnt have a clue.
Good luck to all PBers and don't let OGH steal your your comments.
Hopefully with time they will see sense and realise the simplest explanation is usually the right one but right now there is a huge amount of resentment and distrust.
Mr. Slackbladder, to be fair, Miliband's burning hatred of the English has not in any way diminished my opinion of him*. I still think he's an opportunistic little shit.
[*Yes, in case you were wondering I am being silly with this comment, although I do have genuine contempt for his despicable and indefensible position on English devolution].
I have called OGH all sorts of things in the past and had some stand up rows with him but have never had any of those moderated. The only thing they are trying to do is make sure they keep the lawyers from the door so I think you should really respect that.
Note to any Scots. I’m reporting, it’s not my view.
It also might be a good time to mention Miliband's father's thoughts on these matters:
"The Englishman is a rabid nationalist."
"When you hear the English talk of this war you sometimes almost want them to lose it to show how things are."
@DPJHodges: Just re-checked Ed M transcript. "The fact is older people in Scotland, they have greater needs". Labour's position is imploding.
I may be a shite tipster, but I remember saying when he was elected leader that it was a very bad day for Labour. And it was. Abbott aside, any of the other candidates would have been better choices.
Having said that UKIP have managed to maintain a position of around 15% in the polls at a time when they have had no real publicity since Carswell defected, and they also campaign mainly on an issue that we are told is not exactly a high priority with voters. Although they have managed to bolt on immigration/political correctness/the country going to the dogs.
It utterly permeates milibands approach to this, take a look at many Guardian articles on CIF sometime as well...
We're looking past the old mantras of nationalisation and privatisation
Followed a few sentences later by:
Profit's EVIL!
Please keep digging that hole Ed!
On the big votes you are always wrong , so I will take no notice of your GE predictions.
Also yesterday I apologised about Rod Crosby saying he predicted a Yes vote.
Now checking the results, he did as I thought predict a yes vote .
So there really is only Jack left standing on the big vote predictions.
I rather expect someone’s going to come through from somewhere, and I really hope it’s not Farage.
A sober Kennedy could have done it.
delicious.
thought not.
Regarding Ev4EL this is actually a minor issue empirically. A minor anomaly.
Labour are putting party before country...its as easy as that.
Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·5h
Only @David_Cameron could turn a potentially unifying event into a short-term tactical game heading to mess quickly.
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Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·Sep 20
Big moments need big people not someone who every minute confuses strategy and tactics. It's how he got in this mess in first place
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Alastair Campbell@campbellclaret·Sep 20
If @David_Cameron sees this as just one more tactical short-term political game opinions of him (already low) fall further
What is worrying is that normally stars emerge in opposition but given the tactic of saying nothing about anything, this has not happened. Where are the new generation's equivalents of Blair, Brown and Cook?
As to 'some on the left hating the English' again I suspect that is confined to a tiny minority of the commentariat - taking a slightly longer view, what ever Jim Callaghan's faults, I never doubted his patriotism, for example.
If you do a short term fix saying, saying Welsh, Scottish, NI MP`s can not vote on English only matters.
Then you are effectively saying, there will never be another Prime Minister of the United Kingdom who is not English.
I believe this country , will then become diminished, in any choice of future leaders.
8,000 new members since Friday (over 2k for Scottish Greens, 1.5k for SSP).
But I would contend that same about almost all cultural groupings.
#WHATASHAME
SO says... ''Right, I think I get it now. The Tories will put EV4EL in the bill that will deliver the powers promised by Dave. This will still pass because the coalition have a majority, but Labour will be forced to vote against it. Makes sense. That's politics.''
No, its fairness. No one is making Labour vote against fairness.
That is, Iain Gray, Johann Lamont, Ed Miliband, Gordon Brown are all completely unsuitable leadership material. And it was completely obvious at outset that they were unsuitable.
I make an exception for Carwyn Jones who is one of the more impressive talents in the admittedly very mediocre Welsh Assembly.
There are plenty of talented people in the Labour Party, but they don't seem to end up at the top of it.
That is a bad sign for any organisation.
That could cause a problem with the now increasing emergence of England as a political construct, as many people would consider themselves British rather than English.
Btw it's over 9,000 now.
Perhaps you could point me in the direction of any mainstream work that identifies a specifically English set of genetic characteristics that can be used to identify the Ubermensch?