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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: September 18th 2014 (Referendum Day)
Abergele, Pensarn on Conwy (Lab Defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Independents 19, Conservatives 13, Plaid Cymru 12, Labour 10, Liberal Democrats 5 (No Overall Control, Independents short by 14)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Labour 407 (55%), Independent 186 (25%), Conservative 145 (20%)
Candidates duly nominated:
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I thought about this, but it's a bit of a non-starter in practical terms and would be bitterly opposed. It wouldn't solve the 2 tier MP problem either, because you'd have constituency MPs who work hard to win a FPTP seat and then have to spend part of the week in Westminster and part of it in Holyrood/Cardiff, whilst the list MSPs/MAs put their feet up and just turn up in Holyrood/Cardiff. It would also have to mean Holyrood/Cardiff could only sit 3 day weeks realistically
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdOCWUgwiWs
My two-penn'orth, for what it's worth:
1) Thank you Scotland for a really great result with the potential to update the UK into something fit for the present and future.
2) This is the right time to consider changes to FPTP and HoL, alongside a full constitutional review - the previous attempt was totally out of context.
3) A crucial factor in devolution of spending powers is recognition of where the money comes from. That needs accurate accounting - no fudges like over North Sea oil - and a willingness on the part of net recipients to acknowledge some gratitude for the funding they receive.
4) As some of you may remember I'm a little bit of a leftie so apols to Labour people whom this may offend: I'd like to think that the strong vote for change in Labour heartlands gives the party a kick up the backside.
Bit pushed for time so I may not be able to stick around to answer responses. I'l try to check back tomorrow.
Thanks once again to you all.
twitter.com/Broomleigh/status/512917817948372993/photo/1
I was the Bobby Sol to your Gary Lineker, the Jade Dernbach to your Jimmy Anderson.
So ignoring temporary leaders you have to go back to Wilson to find a leader who was both born in England and represented an English seat.
Well quite, that's how it works in refs that aren't your home. Let me assure you, as a PB Scot, that it was far too intense for some of us.
The figure that strikes me is the 85% turnout... More than double the amount that voted labour or Tory in the last GE
It would be good for the country if one party, obviously I think ukip should do it, would tell people to get out and vote, not necessarily for them, but just vote and feel part of the process
It is difficult for the general public to say they fell disenfranchised if less than 66% of those able to vote, do so
You were the Stevie G fall-guy this time....
Anyway - We Won!!!!!!!!!
Is this his revenge for the "think very carefully" comment last weekend?
The tipping point (copyright all-seeing, all-knowing, on-the-ground @Stuart_Dickson) is how soon we all sink back into familiar ennui when it comes to politics.
I liked what Dave said this morning. As a straight down the line Tory he spoke to me, I felt, but I see from the comments that he went beyond his own party. But what will come of it? I would have preferred Gove or someone else with integrity on the case rather than Hague who is leaving anyway.
I think this policy philosophy that has been maintstream agreed is why people don't take me that seriously in politics.... And why the F not.....
"Think very carefully."
And they did.
Now as it happens I don't have the same concerns about immigration that Farage does - at least not to the same extent - but the more people like you try and claim that genuine concerns about important issues are simple racism, the more the public will scorn you.
I honestly don't know but I would not dismiss him out of hand just because he is not standing in 2015.
Unfortunately there's still a lot of morally despicable people like you who have just shrugged off the rapes of thousands and carries on smearing people as before.
If a group of white men had been abusing children, children who were overwhelmingly, almost all, of an ethnic minority, and a right wing council of white men, had ignored it and covered it up, would I think bad of a party leader who said that the ethnic minority had been let down?
I wouldn't, so I think it's fair enough for Farage to say it here. Not saying it would be carrying on the same as before, and sometimes you have to say it like it is.
You are saying it is racist to point out what's happened in South Yorkshire. Well that's what plenty of people thought in the last 20 years. Look what came of it
Everyone in UKIP might be like you: that is, has a reasonable view of immigration (as does your next leader, Mr Carswell) and I grant that even to discuss immigration, and it needs discussion, is problematic, such is the hair trigger of public and media outrage. For that I have sympathy.
But.
It is beginning to be a case of if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, then...
Change the tune. UKIPs' stance on immigration is well-known; let it become more subconscious. Meanwhile why not lead on, oh I don't know, electoral reform. One element of which, EV4EL, has now, fortuitously become ok to talk about.
Or health. Or women's issues (following Duncan).
But not f**king immigration because the leaflet-writers at least and perhaps Nigel himself do not have the wit or understanding to make it anything other than nasty, hateful and fearmongering.
There's a whole lotta lemmings-with-conspiracy-theories out there.
https://www.change.org/p/alex-salmond-we-the-undersigned-demand-a-revote-of-the-scottish-referendum-counted-by-impartial-international-parties
'... stacking the Cabinet with Old Etonians and their rich chums ...'
followed by -
' John Bickley is the real thing. Born into a Labour Trade Union background...'
Nigel's words.
I'm ashamed to be part of a country that sits on its hands whilst evil people use chemical weapons.
Again.
That could mean jobs flowing South and benefit claimants flowing North.
Could really test the limits of socialism..
LOL ....What will it do to labour??
In that case, how do you explain this, from the UKIP leaflet Bob posted?
.. all the while stacking the Cabinet with Old Etonians and their rich chums who haven't got a clue.
Quite apart from anything else, it happens to be a straightforward, no-holds barred, objectively verifiable lie. The number of Old Etonians that the Cabinet is 'stacked with' happens to be precisely one: David Cameron, or two if you widen the definition to include Oliver Letwin, who attends cabinet.
Now, it may be good politics for UKIP to imitate Labour and stir up class hatred, but they can hardly complain when people point out that they are doing so.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Betting-Edge-Profitable-Gamblers/dp/1906820864
The daft thing is about it - and this is where Farage is wrong - is that those perpetrating these crimes are not doing them because they are immigrants but because they are bad people. But the fear and oppression that has been engendered by the multi-cultural mafia who have castrated anyone who dares even criticise a cultural or religious difference has effectively silenced all the normal routes of legitimate opposition and scrutiny.
So now that all of this has finally been exposed I am afraid it will be a case of reaping what you sow. Until such times as we have a proper grown up debate about all these issues - including the cultural ghettos we have encouraged over the last few decades - you can expect some pretty blunt words from those who feel vindicated and who are now no longer afraid to raise legitimate concerns.
Calling such people BNP-lite is pointless and of course incorrect. But it is a sign of how warped the whole argument has become that people like you think it is a reasonable or even effective criticism. It is intellectually lazy and will simply serve to enhance UKIP's position.
Labour have rejected David Cameron's proposals to secure English-only votes on English laws at the same time as giving greater devolution to Scotland.
Instead, Ed Miliband called for a constitutional convention to address demands for wider devolution of powers.
The Labour leader said there needed to be a series of regional "dialogues" covering every area of the UK on how power could be dispersed from Westminster - including in England.
Among the issues he said should be considered are the reforms that would be needed at Westminster as more power is devolved to Scotland - including the case for a "senate of the nations and regions" or for codifying the constitution.
I think you keep doing things your way and we'll do things our way... See how that turns out
Severin Carrell @severincarrell 12m
The Guardian declined its place at @AlexSalmond post-#indyref press
conference after Scottish govt insisted on picking @guardian reporter
Latterly, some child victims of CSE and some perpetrators had originated from the Roma Slovak community, with a steady increase in the number of child protection cases involving Roma children, though mainly in the category of neglect. Work with Roma families was one of the six priorities of the Child Sexual Exploitation sub-group of the Safeguarding Board in 2012. The Roma population in Rotherham was proportionately much larger than in bigger areas such as Bradford and Manchester.
And:
The Deputy Children's Commissioner’s report reached a similar conclusion to the Muslim Women's Network research, stating 'one of these myths was that only white girls are victims of sexual exploitation by Asian or Muslim males, as if these men only abuse outside of their own community, driven by hatred and contempt for white females. This belief flies in the face of evidence that shows that those who violate children are most likely to target those who are closest to them and most easily accessible.' The Home Affairs Select Committee quoted witnesses saying that cases of Asian men grooming Asian girls did not come to light because victims 'are often alienated and ostracised by their own families and by the whole community, if they go public with allegations of abuse.'
That "vow" didn't last long: BBC reporting Miliband will not sign up to the PM's plan to give more powers to the Scottish Parliament.
Backtracking quickly Mr Miliband....
Given the rape scandal that took place in Heywood, it seems shamefully opportunistic on a Griffin-like scale in his first election communication to focus on that rather than, for instance, setting out UKIP's positive vision for the UK, or focusing on their campaign to take us out of the EU (and there was me thinking this was their raison d'etre....)
I said (and I have said this since one of them popped through my letterbox at home and shocked me, shocked I tell you) the following:
the UKIP election material is reminiscent of the worst of the racist BNP/NF literature of old.
Call it dog whistle call it whatever you want it leaves a very nasty taste in the mouth. Plus it's not needed for grown-up politics today because in everyone's subconscious they associate UKIP with being anti-immigrant (or anti-too much immigrant or whatever it is). UKIP has that one in the bag. So no need to bang on about it.
Better to focus on other things that, you know, will make you more electable in days to come.
These labour proposals won;t get tory support. This means the Scottish 'vows' won't go through. Scotland will be up in arms and we will be at constitutional deadlock.
Ed is going to end up annoying everyone in....
1. Scotland
2. England
purely for party reasons.
Epic
Sorry too tired and happy today to get into a lengthy discussion on this. But I'm not sure how weakening Assad would have helped those now trapped by Is.
M
No need even to produce the postal notification card.
Possible need for restriction of postal voting (not just due to abuse by others but the sort of problem we saw with Messrs Cameron et al moving the goals in the middle of postal voting).
Others will know the mechanics o sorting, but the Glenrothes disappearance of ballot box(es) suggests a lack of tracing of the kind routinely used for the delivery of the merest Amazon paperback: but as I say others would know better.
Forecast for westminster seats won by UKIP GE 2015: 44 (forty four)
The PDP monthly prediction.
Look at the young white working-class girls of Rotherham and Rochdale. Labour and Liberal Democrat-led councils failed to protect them from years of abuse. Now we see people clinging to their jobs and refusing to take responsibilty for the evil those girls endured.
Of course it's a very fair point they are making, and one which needs to be made. But it could be made without the dog-whistle of 'white working-class'. That is teetering on the edge of BNP-land.
But too few people remember there was another party in the war this time last year: the secular FSA. They are the ones we would have been helping, and they were in a position where they could have won. We failed them and the people of Syria.
Predictable though, they have form like their boundary gerrymandering attempt.
It stinks of Osborne. And it'll fail.
Hard to see a positive up side for Ed, he just looks fickle and dishonest imho.
Now how can we help this poor widow, the world needs to look after its service families.
How's Cameron's resignation going for you?
Indeed. I'm sure there will be millions of English votes behind the principle of allowing Scottish MPs 'home rule' and a big say in England as well. Oh and money.
I can see marching on the streets for those principles now....
Ed needs to get on board and then deal with the consequences after the election. Maybe split off English Labour from Scottish Labour.
How can labour defend the undefendable?.. (I guess they'll just do it anyway).
And he is standing down !
Basically, they just don't agree with the answer the referendum delivered.
Salmond standing down when new leader elected.
Tipping point.