In which case we are stuffed. It's very simple. There is no problem to which the solution is Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.
If voters don't (yet) see that, I expect they will by around mid-2016, but by then it will be too late. As a sensible precaution, I'm gradually moving my pension and other investments out of instruments dependent on the UK economy.
I don't blame you, I would do the same if I weren't already retired. However, aside from keeping Miliband and Balls out, what is the point of voting Conservative. For many people most of the things that the Eds want to do Cameron and his clique are already doing. Cameron thought that he could ignore his core vote because they had nowhere else to go, well it might be he was wrong.
On your earlier post, I would think that 17% of the vote for UKIP at the next GE is possible. Not likely, given swing-back/fear of Labour, I agree, but possible; especially if Cameron continues to ignore his natural supporters whilst chasing his apparent dream of winning over the Notting Hill set (who won't vote for him, ever).
In which case we are stuffed. It's very simple. There is no problem to which the solution is Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.
If voters don't (yet) see that, I expect they will by around mid-2016, but by then it will be too late. As a sensible precaution, I'm gradually moving my pension and other investments out of instruments dependent on the UK economy.
Oh hark at Paul Daniels (is he still here btw?)
Personally, I'm sure that whatever Government follows Cameron and Osborne is going to be better. Let's face it, it can't be much worse.
"the former Deputy Prime Minister said that one theory why Britain's growth was sluggish compared with India and China was because – unlike the UK – those countries had "real problems"."
How are the USA and Canada growing then, despite the fact they're 20% richer than us?
For once, Heseltine is right, as far as his comments about India, China and the UK are concerned.
Plenty of people have had "real problems" because of Heseltine and Scarman - though it's mostly pointless talking about it until the gang culture fully breaks out into the public domain.
On your earlier post, I would think that 17% of the vote for UKIP at the next GE is possible. Not likely, given swing-back/fear of Labour, I agree, but possible; especially if Cameron continues to ignore his natural supporters whilst chasing his apparent dream of winning over the Notting Hill set (who won't vote for him, ever).
In which case we are stuffed. It's very simple. There is no problem to which the solution is Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.
If voters don't (yet) see that, I expect they will by around mid-2016, but by then it will be too late. As a sensible precaution, I'm gradually moving my pension and other investments out of instruments dependent on the UK economy.
I've been investing my pension 100% into emerging markets for the last four years. I was told that it was extremely risky, but, as far as I'm concerned, all the risk has been in the developed world, be it the GOP refusing to lift the debt limit or the continued incompetence of the EU.
Claiming benefits or tax credits (native population): Men 24.2%, Women 55%
Weren't there any gender assessments when these tax credits were brought in, showing us men were being disadvantaged as our taxes were redistributed disproportionately to women?
ahoy, Mr Llama! That's good news re. the Bluebell Railway. I went to East Grinstead back in 2011 but the link was of course non-functional. Unfortunately I went during the week so didn't get to ride the Bluebell itself. Must remedy that this summer.
Oh which reminds me - Epping Ongar resumes on Good Friday after the winter break - though it may well be wintry at the weekend!
Avast, Cap'n Doc! You have previous for coming into my patch without letting me buy you lunch. If I find out that you have been riding on the Bluebell Railway without giving me the chance to buy you even the smallest orange juice, let alone a proper meal, ... well, I shall be jolly upset.
Broadland Great Yarmouth Peterborough West Suffolk
NW Cambs Norwich N S Cambs Luton N
Broadland & Norwich North - no chance. Labour have four full time paid staff on the ground and Chloe Smith is building a good power base. Great Yarmouth - a possibility but, again, Yarmouth is now run by Labour and with a generally supportive local paper, UKIP won't get an easy ride here. And Brandon Lewis [DCLG Minister] is a formidable campaigner. UKIP will do quite well in the Yarmouth County Council elections in May I can't see it being sustained at a General Election in this part of the world.
Avast, Cap'n Doc! You have previous for coming into my patch without letting me buy you lunch. If I find out that you have been riding on the Bluebell Railway without giving me the chance to buy you even the smallest orange juice, let alone a proper meal, ... well, I shall be jolly upset.
Belike. Aaargh.
Avast, Mr Llama, I will remember that if I do make the voyage into deepest Sussex!
Q; Which would be the better position for Con to be in at the moment?
(1) 10% behind Lab with UKIP nowhere (2) 10% behind Lab with UKIP on 10 to 15%
If UKIP supporters are at least somewhat more likely to come from Con than Lab then I would have thought the answer would be (2).
Of course Con would rather be much less behind with UKIP nowhere. But if 10% behind with a strong UKIP equates to something like 7% behind with UKIP nowhere then whilst still not great it's far from a disastrous mid-term position to be in.
It is an interesting problem for Cameron that the more he talks about immigration/EU issues, the more the chance of Tories permanently moving to UKIP. I was thinking this earlier when Farage was being interviewed, that controlling immigration is only really possible if the UK was outside of the EU. I am pro EU, so I would hate this to happen, but it must be tempting for the Tories to do a deal with UKIP. This may not be possible under Cameron, but I think at some point, the EU-sceptic part of the Tory party will win out and elect a leader that wants out of the EU following any referendum.
Having sifted through East of England, South of England & West Midlands, I make these UKIPs best seats to attack
S Basildon & E Thurrock Thurrock Bromsgrove Halesown & Rowley Regis Staffordshire Moorlands Dudley North Morley & Outwood Newcastle Under Lyme Stoke on Trent South Telford Walsall North Walsall South West Bromwich West Wolverhampton NE
The moral here is when you're bankrupt you have to take what you're given. If you want to avoid ending up in that position, sounds like a good reason to avoid things that might make you bankrupt...Surely a good lesson for all to learn from the financial crash.
You think Ed Ball's and Labour ready to learn that lesson yet?
Brogan is drawling in the laid-back, languid tone of the Carlton Club. It is post-prandial indulgence, where troublesome digestive juices are smoothed into submission by a glass of the finest Armagnac.
"I hear that bugger Clive has done for the Nawab of Bengal".
"Really? It will only spell trouble. Mark my words".
And a quarter of a millennium later:
"I hear the Astor boy will win again in 2015".
"Good God, No! Not another bloody five years. Can't we find some gal to lose it for us?"
' but it must be tempting for the Tories to do a deal with UKIP.'
If UKIP really want an in/ out EU referendum then doing a deal with the Tories is their only realistic chance,they know that Labour will never offer an EU referendum.
Utterly horrific. And yet they STILL think they need to talk "tough" on Europe and Immigration. When will they learn they will never appease. Only promote.
Labour's lead is starting to resemble a solid election winning cert.
Here's the strange thing though. Their vote share could go down closer to the election, but their majority get bigger, thanks to the way Lib/Lab anti-Con tacticals seem to be behaving.
And the Tories squeezed by UKIP too.
The Tories are facing not only defeat, but a possible existential crisis.
I think if UKIP did get around 20% the LDs would indeed make gains from the Tories because such a high UKIP vote would hit both the Tories and Labour much harder than the LDs in most regions (with the possible exception of the south west).
'Murdoch, Montgomerie,Kavanagh and now Brogan, all in the last few days. Quote'
And Red has got Kevin Maguire, a Russian oligarch & sometimes Polly,although she changes her political allegiance every few years so can't be relied on.
Looks from Brogan's article that the Tories are planning a late New Labour "survive and regroup" strategy for 2015.
Startling how much Cameron and Osborne's Tories have copied Brown, Blair, Campbell, Mandelson and co. From their shamless courting of the media, to cynical triangulation attempts, two-faced ruthlesness etc.
Only 20 years too late. And they're not very good at it.
Labour's lead is starting to resemble a solid election winning cert
Here's the strange thing though. Their vote share could go down closer to the election, but their majority get bigger, thanks to the way Lib/Lab anti-Con tacticals seem to be behaving.
And the Tories squeezed by UKIP too.
The Tories are facing not only defeat, but a possible existential crisis.
Yes. The Tories are already insignificant in Scotland and the urban north. They have no MPs in big cities north of Birmingham and only a small presence in Wales. A whole generation of voters in many areas has grown up with no local Tory presence or activity. In government with the Lib Dems they have a reasonable claim to represent all areas of the country, but on their own they do not. Their activist base is elderly, demotivated and membership is declining. It's more than 20 years since they won an election. Anti-Tory tactical voting is still commonplace. And the Lib Dem pitch at the next general election is going to be that they have prevented the same old toxic Tories form doing even worse things than they have already done. They - and Labour of course - will define the Tories as the party of the rich elite - defenders of outrageous bankers bonuses and cutters of taxes for millionaires. And to cap it all the Tories appear divided and MPs are publicly critical of their leader. The Tories are in a very serious position and it's hard to see how they can escape from it.
It's easy to forget Cameron has actually been leader for rather a long time, longer - for example - than John Major. It's difficult to maintain enthusiasm after a leader has been there for more than about seven years.
Comments
Personally, I'm sure that whatever Government follows Cameron and Osborne is going to be better. Let's face it, it can't be much worse.
Oh yes it can. Think for a moment: Gordon Brown.
Now who were his right-hand men?
France has lost ONE MILLION jobs because of repressive tax regime as 60,000 of the country's rich now live abroad, report claims
Now 60,000 French businessmen abroad employing around 16 people each
Think-tank Concorde found 3% of two million French expats own companies
Tax exiles include Gerard Depardieu, Jean-Michel Jarre and Bernard Arnault
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2298936/France-lost-million-jobs-repressive-tax-regime-report-claims.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/boris-is-leaderinwaiting-hell-never-be-leader-8548642.html
Belike. Aaargh.
What happens when gay couples have children?
Great Yarmouth - a possibility but, again, Yarmouth is now run by Labour and with a generally supportive local paper, UKIP won't get an easy ride here. And Brandon Lewis [DCLG Minister] is a formidable campaigner. UKIP will do quite well in the Yarmouth County Council elections in May I can't see it being sustained at a General Election in this part of the world.
Bunnco - Your Man on the Spot
Belike!
(1) 10% behind Lab with UKIP nowhere
(2) 10% behind Lab with UKIP on 10 to 15%
If UKIP supporters are at least somewhat more likely to come from Con than Lab then I would have thought the answer would be (2).
Of course Con would rather be much less behind with UKIP nowhere. But if 10% behind with a strong UKIP equates to something like 7% behind with UKIP nowhere then whilst still not great it's far from a disastrous mid-term position to be in.
Now £2.94. Cheers George!
'Spending more than Brown, borrowing more than Brown,spending more on benefits than Brown.'
But bringing the country to the brink of economic collapse will always be Brown's legacy.
S Basildon & E Thurrock
Thurrock
Bromsgrove
Halesown & Rowley Regis
Staffordshire Moorlands
Dudley North
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle Under Lyme
Stoke on Trent South
Telford
Walsall North
Walsall South
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton NE
Labour 39%
Tories 27%
UKIP 16%
LD's 14%
Today I saw the perfect car registration number for some on here:
BL06 FFS
Any nominations?
Brogan is drawling in the laid-back, languid tone of the Carlton Club. It is post-prandial indulgence, where troublesome digestive juices are smoothed into submission by a glass of the finest Armagnac.
"I hear that bugger Clive has done for the Nawab of Bengal".
"Really? It will only spell trouble. Mark my words".
And a quarter of a millennium later:
"I hear the Astor boy will win again in 2015".
"Good God, No! Not another bloody five years. Can't we find some gal to lose it for us?"
Brogan knows for whom he is writing.
' but it must be tempting for the Tories to do a deal with UKIP.'
If UKIP really want an in/ out EU referendum then doing a deal with the Tories is their only realistic chance,they know that Labour will never offer an EU referendum.
If only he had never agreed to the Leveson inquiry.
Utterly horrific. And yet they STILL think they need to talk "tough" on Europe and Immigration. When will they learn they will never appease. Only promote.
Labour minus 5
Tories minus 3
LD plus 4
UKIP plus 5
UKIP keep rising.
Good job they have just brought in Crosby to run their campaign...
'twas ever soft, that lead.
I'm not sure my innocence can deal with these kind of cartoons.
Here's the strange thing though. Their vote share could go down closer to the election, but their majority get bigger, thanks to the way Lib/Lab anti-Con tacticals seem to be behaving.
And the Tories squeezed by UKIP too.
The Tories are facing not only defeat, but a possible existential crisis.
National Prediction: LAB majority 106
What would be funny is if the Lib Dems ended up making gains of the Tories!
I think if UKIP did get around 20% the LDs would indeed make gains from the Tories because such a high UKIP vote would hit both the Tories and Labour much harder than the LDs in most regions (with the possible exception of the south west).
We might just see that at the locals in May
'Murdoch, Montgomerie,Kavanagh and now Brogan, all in the last few days.
Quote'
And Red has got Kevin Maguire, a Russian oligarch & sometimes Polly,although she changes her political allegiance every few years so can't be relied on.
Far better than betting on UKIP getting a couple of MPs
I'm not sure about that: 37% isn't very impressive in mid-term. It could indicate only 33% by election time.
Startling how much Cameron and Osborne's Tories have copied Brown, Blair, Campbell, Mandelson and co. From their shamless courting of the media, to cynical triangulation attempts, two-faced ruthlesness etc.
Only 20 years too late. And they're not very good at it.