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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cyprus – the Marf view

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 2013 in General

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  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    First?
  • Nice one, Marfy.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Yes Marf, exactly what the EU has said to the Cypriots.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    FPT @rcs1000

    Robert, I think Fluffy made a good point.

    If insolvent banks are permitted by governments, regulators, auditors and supranational prudential authorities to continue trading then is it not reasonable for uninformed depositors to assume their money is safe?

    Presumably the ECB's decision to provide Laiki with 9 billion Euros of liquidity finance was done on the basis that it was an ongoing business.

    Maybe now is the time to qualify as a Cypriot lawyer.
  • @Sam

    Fpt....

    Ashcroft is about as reliable a source as you are likely to get.

    Anecdotal evidence reported here by a number of PBers active in Eastleigh during the by-Election strongly supported the view that UKIP were taking votes fairly evenly across the board from other Parties.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    Marf

    The only blonde standing needs a haircut.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    "Leaving aside the specifics of the deal, what is everyone's thoughts on the cypriot parliament being bypassed ?"

    Euro hypothermia, the periphery being sacrificed to protect the core, Ireland first - who went easy for some strange reason - Greece, Cyprus etc.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @ITVLauraK: Djsselbloem's 'sort it out yourself' remarks appears to have pushed European banks index down 7 percent ...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    glassfet said:

    @ITVLauraK: Djsselbloem's 'sort it out yourself' remarks appears to have pushed European banks index down 7 percent ...

    lolz
  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    The moral here is when you're bankrupt you have to take what you're given. If you want to avoid ending up in that position, sounds like a good reason to avoid things that might make you bankrupt...Surely a good lesson for all to learn from the financial crash.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    via Sky News

    All banks except Bank of Cyprus and Laiki will open tomorrow.

    A restructured Bank of Cyprus will open on March 28th.

    No announcement as to whether currency controls will be imposed.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    AveryLP said:

    FPT @rcs1000

    Robert, I think Fluffy made a good point.

    If insolvent banks are permitted by governments, regulators, auditors and supranational prudential authorities to continue trading then is it not reasonable for uninformed depositors to assume their money is safe?

    Presumably the ECB's decision to provide Laiki with 9 billion Euros of liquidity finance was done on the basis that it was an ongoing business.

    Maybe now is the time to qualify as a Cyriot lawyer.

    Uninformed depositors? Surely someone depositing more than 100,000 Euros in an institution should make some effort to be "informed" about it?
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @zseward: Forget the S&P. #Bitcoin hit another all-time high today ($78). Now up 134% this month http://pic.twitter.com/nRFNRNw50R
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215
    edited March 2013
    I thought about buying some bitcoins when they were worth a fiver, also looked into mining them but decided I couldn't be arsed.

    OOPS.

    Also truly fascinating Diesel-Boom's words. Truly.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @Reuters: European shares fall as Cyprus bailout relief fades http://reut.rs/WRi1zL
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    AveryLP said:

    Marf

    The only blonde standing needs a haircut.

    After a VERY close look, she doesn't, it's a bikini bottom. :-)

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    "So where can we put our money, if not in a bank? Bricks and Mortar?"

    I'd suggest a water purifier as fairly soon after the majority of people realize there's not going to be enough heat or leccy they'll find out there's not going to be enough water either.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MBoy said:

    If you want to avoid ending up in that position, sounds like a good reason to avoid things that might make you bankrupt...Surely a good lesson for all to learn from the financial crash.

    Indeed. Amazingly, countries continue to give up their monetary independence, however...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215
    MrJones said:

    FPT
    "So where can we put our money, if not in a bank? Bricks and Mortar?"

    I'd suggest a water purifier as fairly soon after the majority of people realize there's not going to be enough heat or leccy they'll find out there's not going to be enough water either.

    Water ? Are you sure? When I last drove past the reservoirs they were pretty topped up up here.

  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420
    Off-topic:

    Bug in Vanilla!

    OGH changed thread - naught wrong with that - but I posted summinck on the last thread that ended-up on a thread from twenty-four hours earlier. I reposted the thread on t'last thread so will save reposting it here.

    I have serious questions about the maturity of this Vanilla software release. EiT's widget-software looks as though it will require a considerable amount of thought and rewrite. If/When OGH buys a service the PHP API may offer solutions and fixes but this will lead to a custom provision and not one that is generic.

    And I am disappointed with Marf: No mention of Limassol....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I remember watching a TV 'Brits abroad' programme about an expat community in Spain.

    They had a social club where one night they were all having a good laugh about how the weather was only 20 degrees warmer than at home a ha ha ha ha ha.

    Bet they're not laughing today.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013

    AveryLP said:

    FPT @rcs1000

    Robert, I think Fluffy made a good point.

    If insolvent banks are permitted by governments, regulators, auditors and supranational prudential authorities to continue trading then is it not reasonable for uninformed depositors to assume their money is safe?

    Presumably the ECB's decision to provide Laiki with 9 billion Euros of liquidity finance was done on the basis that it was an ongoing business.

    Maybe now is the time to qualify as a Cyriot lawyer.

    Uninformed depositors? Surely someone depositing more than 100,000 Euros in an institution should make some effort to be "informed" about it?
    Well how would they become "informed"?

    1. Check the latest Annual Report and Accounts and see whether they have been signed off by the bank's auditors?

    2. Ask the Central Bank and/or Bank Regulator whether they have any plans to shut down the bank?

    3. Read the newspapers and see that the European Central Bank has provided 9 billion of liquidity finance to the bank to enable it to continue operations?

    Yes, of course, the depositor should be aware that above market returns generally correlate with higher risk, but if the expert regulators, auditors, credit rating agencies and central bankers all fail to take early and appropriate action to safeguard their stakeholders why are they in office at all?

  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I wonder what happens to any Cypriot accounts held in a foreign (non Euro) currency? Do they get sequestered as well?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215
    I wouldn't have thought the currency would matter with Laiki, cash is cash, assets are assets.
  • @Fluffy

    "No mention of Limassol.... "

    The yacht is IN Limassol, you donut.

    That's Paphos in the background. Thought you knew the place?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    AveryLP.

    If we can't rely on regulators to take early and appropriate action, then why are we bothering to pay fortunes for regulators in the first place? Lets do away with them and just tell people to be more careful.

    Regulators clearly don;t work. They only inculcate in people a false sense of security. Banks are as unstable as they always have been. Having regulators has made no difference.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,215
    Hmm... Bitcoin offers a system of currency that is compleely outwith the fractional reserve banking system, and also will not grow. Should have bought some earlier *Ponders if its worth doing so now...*
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT @rcs1000

    Robert, I think Fluffy made a good point.

    If insolvent banks are permitted by governments, regulators, auditors and supranational prudential authorities to continue trading then is it not reasonable for uninformed depositors to assume their money is safe?

    Presumably the ECB's decision to provide Laiki with 9 billion Euros of liquidity finance was done on the basis that it was an ongoing business.

    Maybe now is the time to qualify as a Cyriot lawyer.

    Uninformed depositors? Surely someone depositing more than 100,000 Euros in an institution should make some effort to be "informed" about it?
    Well how would they become "informed"?

    1. Check the latest Annual Report and Accounts and see whether they have been signed off by the bank's auditors?

    2. Ask the Central Bank and/or Bank Regulator whether they have any plans to shut down the bank?

    3. Read the newspapers and see that the European Central Bank has provided 9 billion of liquidity finance to the bank to enable it to continue operations?

    Yes, of course, the depositor should be aware that above market returns generally correlate with higher risk, but if the expert regulators, auditors, credit rating agencies and central bankers all fail to take early and appropriate action to safeguard their stakeholders why are they in office at all?

    How about read the news? Who here didn't know there was a crisis. Speak to a professional financial advisor or lawyer? Either ought to have been able to warn you of the risk. Ask why the banks were paying so high interest rates to depositors - too good to be true usually is.

    Insured depositors should not be stung but uninsured depositors should have known better and as in any risky environment ignorance is no excuse.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Another great Marf!
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,414
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    FPT @rcs1000

    Robert, I think Fluffy made a good point.

    If insolvent banks are permitted by governments, regulators, auditors and supranational prudential authorities to continue trading then is it not reasonable for uninformed depositors to assume their money is safe?

    Presumably the ECB's decision to provide Laiki with 9 billion Euros of liquidity finance was done on the basis that it was an ongoing business.

    Maybe now is the time to qualify as a Cyriot lawyer.

    Uninformed depositors? Surely someone depositing more than 100,000 Euros in an institution should make some effort to be "informed" about it?
    Well how would they become "informed"?

    1. Check the latest Annual Report and Accounts and see whether they have been signed off by the bank's auditors?

    2. Ask the Central Bank and/or Bank Regulator whether they have any plans to shut down the bank?

    3. Read the newspapers and see that the European Central Bank has provided 9 billion of liquidity finance to the bank to enable it to continue operations?

    Yes, of course, the depositor should be aware that above market returns generally correlate with higher risk, but if the expert regulators, auditors, credit rating agencies and central bankers all fail to take early and appropriate action to safeguard their stakeholders why are they in office at all?

    A wise depositor would be aware that amounts over 100,000 Euros were not guaranteed and would not place much faith in "expert regulators" and credit rating agencies bearing in mind their lamentable record in recent years.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    "How about read the news? Who here didn't know there was a crisis."

    Remember those eurozone banking stress tests and all the euro-wallahs saying everything is fine?
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Pulpstar said:

    Hmm... Bitcoin offers a system of currency that is compleely outwith the fractional reserve banking system, and also will not grow. Should have bought some earlier *Ponders if its worth doing so now...*

    There is a view that the recent spike in Bitcoin prices are a bubble about to burst, but there is also a lot of activity in the Bitcoin mining hardware market which is likely to have an impact.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,373
    glassfet said:

    @zseward: Forget the S&P. #Bitcoin hit another all-time high today ($78). Now up 134% this month http://pic.twitter.com/nRFNRNw50R

    I am personally massively long bitcoin. This very PC has more than 100 bitcoins on it, purchased at less than $4 a piece. Comfortably my best PA trade of the last 18 months.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Pulpstar said:

    MrJones said:

    FPT
    "So where can we put our money, if not in a bank? Bricks and Mortar?"

    I'd suggest a water purifier as fairly soon after the majority of people realize there's not going to be enough heat or leccy they'll find out there's not going to be enough water either.

    Water ? Are you sure? When I last drove past the reservoirs they were pretty topped up up here.

    Semi-joking.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @Spectator_CH: The Cyprus drama has only just begun, says @JGForsyth http://specc.ie/102w0C6
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Obviously they don't have the same strict rules about naming boats that apply to racehorses.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    Everyone, including us, has commented at some point this week about how calmly markets have reacted to the situation in Cyprus.

    Cue Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

    Contrary to his expectation that markets would see it as “sensible”, they have reacted wildly. Spanish and Italian stock markets have swung into negative territory after being up for the day, led by their banks taking a hammering, figures via @suanzes:

    Ibex35: -2,68%. BBVA (3.97%), Bankinter (-4%), CaixaBank (-2,44%), Banco Popular (-4.147%), Sabadell (-3,83), Santander (-3,27%)

    Where does this leave plans for banking union and eurozone integration? We’re hesitant to say tatters, but it’s not looking great.
    http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/you-want-contagionill-show-you-contagion.html
  • I've been following the Cyprus story, and can't pretend to understand all the details, but realise that there wasn't a lot of options available. I'd still be p!$$€d off at having to take such a huge haircut, and would be looking to try and get the rest of my money out. Will we see a bank run once the banks finally open, with scared investors playing safe?
  • great cartoon marf.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220

    Will we see a bank run once the banks finally open, with scared investors playing safe?

    The expert interviewed on Sky said he would advise all of his clients to take money out of banks in Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
  • Is that Seant on the yacht?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,373
    I think we will almost certainly see a bank run in Cyprus.

    However, I would also expect the ECB to offer unlimited liquidity to Eurozone banks hit by outflows. So, and I may be in a minority of one on here, to expect a fairly rapid bounce-back, particularly in places where the banks are well capitalised (Italy, France).
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Is that Seant on the yacht?

    I can't see a mast.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    glassfet said:

    Will we see a bank run once the banks finally open, with scared investors playing safe?

    The expert interviewed on Sky said he would advise all of his clients to take money out of banks in Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and Ireland.
    That's all well and good, but it's not always obvious when you're investing in a bank in one of those countries. I have an account with Citibank Hungary. So you'd think I was with a Hungarian bank or perhaps a US bank?

    Well, no. According to their own website, if you search hard enough, you find out that "Citibank in Hungary has been operating as a branch office of the Irish based Citibank Europe plc since January 2009 as Citibank Europe plc Hungarian Branch Office."
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    @DavidJones_IG: New 4 month lows in the euro - 200 point range for EURUSD today.
  • FluffyThoughtsFluffyThoughts Posts: 2,420

    @Fluffy

    "No mention of Limassol.... "

    The yacht is IN Limassol, you donut.

    That's Paphos in the background. Thought you knew the place?

    Where are the Red Arrows? And Echelon's radars and what-nots? Not to forget the peninsula that hosts Akritori and "Lady's mile beech"?

    That said, I recognise a few of the tankers laid-up....
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Euro dropping like an anvil....now heading for USD1.28
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    @antifrank

    You have the guarantee of the Citibank brand, regardless of strict liability.

    Not 100% safe, I agree, but somewhat better than your average Hungarian bank.
  • What do all those pretty girls on that yacht see in that scruffy, obese multi millionaire?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,373
    @antifrank

    Citibank has a core tier one capital ratio of under 9%, which means it is more geared than (say) BNP which is at 13.6%. Nevertheless, anything under €100,000 should be covered by deposit insurance. I would avoid having more than €100,000 at any one bank if you can avoid it.
  • glassfetglassfet Posts: 220
    This is probably a really good sign...

    @marklowen: #Cyprus President's office says national address delayed to 20.15 local (18.15gmt)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    taffys said:

    Euro dropping like an anvil....now heading for USD1.28

    The pound is taking a hit too. For most of this week it has benefitted from the Euro's problems. Now it seems everyone is running to the US dollar.

    Robert S. is counting his greenbacks and smiling as we blog.
  • @TwistedFS

    The Burnley connection suggests it's Mike Smithson.

    Nuff said.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,373
    It is true that I am quite long the USD personally...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @rcs100 @AveryLP Citibank is the best of a bad job in Hungary. I try to keep my money over there at levels that I can afford to lose if the worst comes to the worst.

    It would be nice to be in a position where having more than €100,000 in free cash was keeping me awake at night, mind.

  • @TwistedFS

    The Burnley connection suggests it's Mike Smithson.

    Nuff said.

    I didn't think Mike looked that rough, but zooming in, the hair's the give away. If I was Mike, I'd be wary of the raven haired bird, she seems more interested in the blonde!
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    rcs1000 said:

    It is true that I am quite long the USD personally...

    Typical Goldman Sachs alumnus.

    Tell us all you are "in a minority of one on here, [expecting] a fairly rapid bounce-back" whilst going long on the dollar.

    You should quit your day job and become a regulator, Robert!
  • @Antifrank

    That's right, Antifrank.

    Wetherby's have supervised the naming of racehorses strictly ever since since Selohesra ran unremarked upon for a number of years.

    Btw, did you notice that Black Caviar has an 'appointment' with Frankel when the Australian mare visits the UK this summer?

    The mind boggles.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    "If I was Mike, I'd be wary of the raven haired bird, she seems more interested in the blonde!"

    I was wondering that.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    antifrank said:

    @rcs100 @AveryLP Citibank is the best of a bad job in Hungary. I try to keep my money over there at levels that I can afford to lose if the worst comes to the worst.

    It would be nice to be in a position where having more than €100,000 in free cash was keeping me awake at night, mind.

    antifrank, your biggest risk with Citibank is its constant changes in policy on whether it wishes to be in retail banking outside the US. It tends to enter and exit markets in a cycle every five years.

    Not only a Citibank problem though. This rule applies generally to all of the major US retail banks.

    But such changes in policy are unlikely to be coupled with a Citibank subsidiary defaulting, just a nuisance if you see Citigroup as a long term service provider.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,373
    edited March 2013
    AveryLP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    It is true that I am quite long the USD personally...

    Typical Goldman Sachs alumnus.

    Tell us all you are "in a minority of one on here, [expecting] a fairly rapid bounce-back" whilst going long on the dollar.

    You should quit your day job and become a regulator, Robert!
    I'm long the USD because I own a house there! I expect a fairly rapid bounce-back in the value of Eurozone banks. But we shall see. It could all get quite ugly if there is a generalised bank run. However, I suspect that if that starts to happen, the ECB (and the Germans) will acquiese to a generalised European-level bank deposit guarantee system, and the solvency of banks will become the responsibility of the ECB.

    In this case, I think we could see some serious (upward) moves in some of the peripheral European banks - particularly in places like Italy where overall corporate and personal indebtedness is very low.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013

    @TwistedFS

    The Burnley connection suggests it's Mike Smithson.

    Nuff said.

    It could be Roger, TFS.

    On a BBC commission, managing his shoot.

  • @Avery

    Roger wouldn't know where Burnley is.

    By the way, have you changed your name, since scrutinising the long-haired blonde in the toon?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013

    @Avery

    Roger wouldn't know where Burnley is.

    By the way, have you changed your name, since scrutinising the long-haired blonde in the toon?

    I thought Roger was brought up on the same street as OGH, kicking footballs together to the sound of Dvořák's 9th Hovis commercial.

    As to a name change, and in recognition of Wetherby's oversight, I am contemplating a change of name to Arthur ffoulkes-Sheik, cousin of the SNP floater Tasmina Ahmed Sheikh.


  • @Avery

    Lol!

    Btw, the Hovis commercial was shot in Shaftesbury, Wiltshire.

    Not a lot of people know that.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited March 2013
    @rcs1000

    I think we could see some serious (upward) moves in some of the peripheral European banks - particularly in places like Italy where overall corporate and personal indebtedness is very low.

    I always suspected that your Dad had you baptised in a casino.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    @Avery


    Btw, the Hovis commercial was shot in Shaftesbury, Wiltshire.

    Not a lot of people know that.

    I knew that the advert was filmed in Shaftesbury. I didn't know that Shaftesbury was in Wiltshire though. When was it moved from Dorset?

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Blimey Marf…! – I hope the long haired blonde has been liberally coated in sun factor 25.

    My services are available if not. ;)
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,661
    Gloucester Labour shortlist

    David Purchase (Parmjit Dhanda's former assistant)
    Sophy Gardner (former RAF commander; shortlisted in Rotherham, Feltham & Heston)
    Keir Dhillon (2001 GE Tewkesbury candidate, former SW National Policy Forum representative; previously shortlisted in Bristol NW)


    We have Sophy again!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @MrJones
    MrJones said:

    "If I was Mike, I'd be wary of the raven haired bird, she seems more interested in the blonde!"

    I was wondering that.

    If you look even more carefully, you will notice that Raven hair has her left hand on that blonds bum. Make of that what you will.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815


    We have Sophy again!

    Whereas Sophie is onboard in Limassol.

    Glad to see Sophy back, Andrea. I'm rooting for her in Gloucester.

  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    Wg Cdr Sophy Gardner - Perhaps this time her career will take off...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    MikeK said:

    @MrJones

    MrJones said:

    "If I was Mike, I'd be wary of the raven haired bird, she seems more interested in the blonde!"

    I was wondering that.

    If you look even more carefully, you will notice that Raven hair has her left hand on that blonds bum. Make of that what you will.
    :O
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    i could do with a seant rant about cyprus about now.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    tim said:

    Keep boosting UKIP Dave.

    Voting intentions poll shows CON 27% (+1), LAB 37% (-2), LD 10% (-3), UKIP 17% (+4), OTHER 10% (+2)

    Err, that poll doesn't quite fit the narrative. Not only are the Conservatives marginally up, but UKIP seems to have been boosted by a fall in support for Labour and the LibDems.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030
    Nice cartoon, Marf! Naughty, but nice!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030
    @AN1

    Thanks for the rail-related links earlier in the day. Most enlightening.
  • BobajobBobajob Posts: 1,536
    The quote button does not work on the iPhone. Can we just revert to the old system, before Disqus, before any of this stuff?
  • samsam Posts: 727

    @Sam

    Fpt....

    Ashcroft is about as reliable a source as you are likely to get.

    Anecdotal evidence reported here by a number of PBers active in Eastleigh during the by-Election strongly supported the view that UKIP were taking votes fairly evenly across the board from other Parties.

    Cheers

    In the Corby election, again the 22% Con>UKIP fits, but the BNP lost 1911 votes... Im assingining the 432 the English Democrats won as ex BNP.. if we give the other 1500 to UKIP that means 15% from Con.... does 75% of lost BNP votes to UKIP sound fair?

  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @tim: Yeah, right, UKIP on 17%, Others on 10%, and pigs flying over Westminster.
  • samsam Posts: 727
    After spending most of today trying to analyse the figures from the 5 by elections post GE 2010 I have come up with the scenario for UKIP to gain a Westminster seat if a bye election came up...

    A close GE 2010 result between Con & LD or Lab

    A reasonably similar significant UKIP and BNP showing, close to the amount of the 3rd party

    An Eastleigh-esque turnout/non turnout & VI national polling levels

    Know ye of any such constituencies?

    Theyd go close at Thurrock given this scenario
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @Sunil

    I know that steam trains aren't really your thing, Cap'n Doc, but did you see that the Bluebell Railway has now linked up to the mainline at East Grinstead? I wonder if they will now run commuter services. Just think of the joys of getting into a steam-drawn 1930s carriage as part of one's journey to, and particularly from, work, especially if they had a proper buffet service (anyone here remember eating cheese on toast on the old BR Southern Region trains?).
  • Abu Qatada judgment on Wednesday.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @tim

    Claiming benefits or tax credits (native population): Men 24.2%, Women 55%

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21921089

    But how will the two Eds find the dosh to pay the bribes?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Mr. Nabavi,

    55% of women claiming some sort of benefit? I am surprised, and slightly worried, that the proportion is that small. Until a couple of years ago my wife would have been one of those, after all child benefit (introduced to replace an allowance against income tax that could be claimed by men) is paid to the woman in the household.

    On your earlier post, I would think that 17% of the vote for UKIP at the next GE is possible. Not likely, given swing-back/fear of Labour, I agree, but possible; especially if Cameron continues to ignore his natural supporters whilst chasing his apparent dream of winning over the Notting Hill set (who won't vote for him, ever).
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    On your earlier post, I would think that 17% of the vote for UKIP at the next GE is possible. Not likely, given swing-back/fear of Labour, I agree, but possible; especially if Cameron continues to ignore his natural supporters whilst chasing his apparent dream of winning over the Notting Hill set (who won't vote for him, ever).

    In which case we are stuffed. It's very simple. There is no problem to which the solution is Ed Balls and Ed Miliband.

    If voters don't (yet) see that, I expect they will by around mid-2016, but by then it will be too late. As a sensible precaution, I'm gradually moving my pension and other investments out of instruments dependent on the UK economy.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030
    @HurstLlama

    ahoy, Mr Llama! That's good news re. the Bluebell Railway. I went to East Grinstead back in 2011 but the link was of course non-functional. Unfortunately I went during the week so didn't get to ride the Bluebell itself. Must remedy that this summer.

    Oh which reminds me - Epping Ongar resumes on Good Friday after the winter break - though it may well be wintry at the weekend!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    HYUFD said:
    "the former Deputy Prime Minister said that one theory why Britain's growth was sluggish compared with India and China was because – unlike the UK – those countries had "real problems"."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Good evening, everyone.

    Mr. Nabavi, surely the problem of "I have a space cannon capable of firing people into the heart of the sun, but am not sure who to fire first. Who do you suggest?" would have Ed Miliband and Ed Balls as an answer?
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Morris_Dancer - Good point, although I think there are quite a few other candidates, some of whom might take precedence over Ed Miliband at least!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    edited March 2013
    True. If there were but one shot then Balls would clearly have precedence.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It can't be long before a poll puts UKIP on 20%. Opinium seems to give them higher shares than the other pollsters most of the time.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,216
    edited March 2013
    TNS BMRB poll has Ukip at 17. This week's shares: CON 27% (+1), LAB 37% (-2), LD 10% (-3), UKIP 17% (+4)

    Also ComRes phone poll due out at 10pm. Two parties show big gains at the exepense of the other two.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 22,280
    Richard Nabavi: "As a sensible precaution, I'm gradually moving my pension and other investments out of instruments dependent on the UK economy."

    As a matter of interest, to where are you moving them?
  • samsam Posts: 727
    @tim

    Thanks

    Yes, using this hair brained Heath Robinson Spreadsheet I have devised, they would come an extremely close second there... Maybe that would be one for Farage to have a go at?

    I am sadly going through every constitunecy, have done East of England so far...

    Best Chances
    Thurrock
    South Basildon & East Thurrock

    Next bests
    Broadland
    Great Yarmouth
    Peterborough
    West Suffolk

    Worth a pops
    NW Cambs
    Norwich N
    S Cambs
    Luton N
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    edited March 2013
    SeanT said:

    @tim: Yeah, right, UKIP on 17%, Others on 10%, and pigs flying over Westminster.

    To take one example. What was the F&CKING point in pursuing gay marriage, right here, right now? What purpose did it serve other than to hack off a vital 10% of rightwing voters while saving persecuted homosexuals from, er, zero persecution BECAUSE NO ONE WAS ASKING FOR GAY MARRIAGE ANYWAY?
    Cameron thought he was replicating Blair and grabbing the centre ground, whilst leaving nowhere else for core supporters to go (so they would have to stay).

    It worked for Blair, as the left had no credible alternative.

    Cameron has UKIP to contend with, and, given his latest announcements, is trying to give some red meat back to the core voters.

    EDIT: Agree, silly to pursue gay marriage.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 41,030
    edited March 2013
    TNS-BMRB/The Sunil:

    Governing Parties: 37%
    Labour: 37%

This discussion has been closed.