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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 23rd 2013

SystemSystem Posts: 11,683
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : May 23rd 2013

Dennis Skinner MP (Lab, Bolsover) has become as much of the Parliamentary Estate as Black Rod and the Speaker.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Good evening, everyone.

    Thanks to Mr. Hayfield (assuming he wrote the article), though it must be said it looks a bit predictable.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Only one by-election tonight ? Boring !
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    tim said:

    Point of order.
    Maid Marian and her Merry Men predates CBBC by about a decade

    CBBC is perhaps the finest channel in history and worth double the licence fee alone

    That's such blatant trolling it deserves a prize.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    tim said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    tim said:

    Point of order.
    Maid Marian and her Merry Men predates CBBC by about a decade

    CBBC is perhaps the finest channel in history and worth double the licence fee alone

    That's such blatant trolling it deserves a prize.
    And the new series of Horrible Histories begins on Monday a Grumpy Kipper antidote if ever ther was one.
    Nah Die Toten Hosen singing Uno Dos Ultraviolento - Germans singing argentinian punk how could you go wrong ?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWY76z_draA
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    Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    The incompetent fop unleashes his fearsome EU posturing.
    Simon Nixon ‏@Simon_Nixon

    Bizarre: David Cameron attacks EU olive oil jug ban that UK government helped pass by refusing to join Dutch veto! http://soa.li/86IvjRe
    Take that Farage!

    LOL

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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    FPT - I got 31 on the Harvard face test thingie.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    FPT for Tim: London is a fine city now. But it was a fine city 30 years ago, when I was also living in it. And two things were certainly better then: house prices were affordable and people queued at bus stops. They certainly don't do that now on the bus routes I use.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for Tim: London is a fine city now. But it was a fine city 30 years ago, when I was also living in it. And two things were certainly better then: house prices were affordable and people queued at bus stops. They certainly don't do that now on the bus routes I use.

    London was a great city 30 years ago. It is a great city today. Whoever you are, whatever your tastes, there is something for you in London.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Scary! So we are in the "lair of the Beast" tonight.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good evening, everyone.

    Thanks to Mr. Hayfield (assuming he wrote the article), though it must be said it looks a bit predictable.

    Predictable ? Will probably be a Ratepayers gain from Greens as Greens are not defending the seat .

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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    edited May 2013
    I took a photo of people at an Edinburgh bus stop 20 years ago for the simple reason that it was such an unusual sight seeing a queue form in a single line.
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for Tim: London is a fine city now. But it was a fine city 30 years ago, when I was also living in it. And two things were certainly better then: house prices were affordable and people queued at bus stops. They certainly don't do that now on the bus routes I use.

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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    tim said:



    Quake before the power of Dave's olive oil in jug abstention you Eurocrats.

    Maybe it's a cunning plan and that's what he's going to renegotiate, emerging victorious at Heathrow 4am with an unlabelled jug of olive oil urging a Yes vote.

    The EU already u-turned.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10076201/EU-drops-olive-oil-jug-ban-after-public-outcry.html
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,309
    surbiton said:

    Only one by-election tonight ? Boring !

    This is a local election for local people! There's nothing for you here!
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    NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I wouldnt normally post this ... but my god it's so cute:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/purrfect-harmony-mother-cat-suckles-ducklings-1.1404532

    I'm sure it will have tim spitting feathers ;)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    F1: just checked P1 and P2. Vettel's 9th and 10th, and 0.3s and 0.6s slower than his team mate, so it can't, I think, be entirely attributed to running with a heavier fuel load.

    Hmm. If he isn't careful he'll struggle to reach Q3, which would set the cat amongst the pigeons.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    surbiton said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for Tim: London is a fine city now. But it was a fine city 30 years ago, when I was also living in it. And two things were certainly better then: house prices were affordable and people queued at bus stops. They certainly don't do that now on the bus routes I use.

    London was a great city 30 years ago. It is a great city today. Whoever you are, whatever your tastes, there is something for you in London.
    Usually the wide selection of roads exiting the city.
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    smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Mick_Pork said:

    The incompetent fop unleashes his fearsome EU posturing.

    Simon Nixon ‏@Simon_Nixon

    Bizarre: David Cameron attacks EU olive oil jug ban that UK government helped pass by refusing to join Dutch veto! http://soa.li/86IvjRe
    Take that Farage!

    LOL



    I like this bit

    In a press conference at the EU summit, Mr Cameron declined to explain how Britain had ended up giving the green light to the ban.

    "Our argument was bound up in a whole set of arguments we were having about rules of origin and all the rest of it and I won't go into the tedious complexities," he said.

    What a berk!
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    tim said:

    Point of order.
    Maid Marian and her Merry Men predates CBBC by about a decade

    CBBC is perhaps the finest channel in history and worth double the licence fee alone

    Sounds like they could survive commercially on a subscription basis then...
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    SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    FPT
    smithersjones2013 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    The fop EU master strategy continues to work wonders.

    politicshomeuk ‏@politicshomeuk

    Eurosceptics have already written off the Tory bill seeking to legislate for an EU referendum as a “dead duck". http://polho.me/13Ky9mi
    When Time Magazine has this on the front cover why Tory Eurosceptics even bother is beyond me?

    http://www.time.com/time/covers/europe/0,16641,20130603,00.htm


    You do realise Catherine Mayer is the most stereotypical groupthinking pro-European, complete with scoffing at anyone that dares question the project?
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,309
    Alanbrooke said:

    surbiton said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT for Tim: London is a fine city now. But it was a fine city 30 years ago, when I was also living in it. And two things were certainly better then: house prices were affordable and people queued at bus stops. They certainly don't do that now on the bus routes I use.

    London was a great city 30 years ago. It is a great city today. Whoever you are, whatever your tastes, there is something for you in London.
    Usually the wide selection of railways exiting the city.
    Corrected it for you!
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    I wouldnt normally post this ... but my god it's so cute:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/purrfect-harmony-mother-cat-suckles-ducklings-1.1404532

    I'm sure it will have tim spitting feathers ;)

    It will be blood on the feather,
    With his head between his knees.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,309
    MaxPB said:

    tim said:



    Quake before the power of Dave's olive oil in jug abstention you Eurocrats.

    Maybe it's a cunning plan and that's what he's going to renegotiate, emerging victorious at Heathrow 4am with an unlabelled jug of olive oil urging a Yes vote.

    The EU already u-turned.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10076201/EU-drops-olive-oil-jug-ban-after-public-outcry.html
    Olive Oil? Did they also ban Popeye too?

    :)
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    smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Socrates said:

    FPT

    smithersjones2013 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    The fop EU master strategy continues to work wonders.

    politicshomeuk ‏@politicshomeuk

    Eurosceptics have already written off the Tory bill seeking to legislate for an EU referendum as a “dead duck". http://polho.me/13Ky9mi
    When Time Magazine has this on the front cover why Tory Eurosceptics even bother is beyond me?

    http://www.time.com/time/covers/europe/0,16641,20130603,00.htm
    You do realise Catherine Mayer is the most stereotypical groupthinking pro-European, complete with scoffing at anyone that dares question the project?

    No I didn't.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    tim said:

    Neil said:

    I wouldnt normally post this ... but my god it's so cute:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/purrfect-harmony-mother-cat-suckles-ducklings-1.1404532

    I'm sure it will have tim spitting feathers ;)

    I'd regard it as a challenge, a Southern Rhone white with the young tender ducklings, but a Pinot Noir with the cat, so a lightish Beajolais with them casseroled together.
    I suspect the cat is playing the long game and will polish off the ducklings when they get a bit meatier.
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    AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Alanbrooke said:

    tim said:

    Neil said:

    I wouldnt normally post this ... but my god it's so cute:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/purrfect-harmony-mother-cat-suckles-ducklings-1.1404532

    I'm sure it will have tim spitting feathers ;)

    I'd regard it as a challenge, a Southern Rhone white with the young tender ducklings, but a Pinot Noir with the cat, so a lightish Beajolais with them casseroled together.
    I suspect the cat is playing the long game and will polish off the ducklings when they get a bit meatier.
    My what big eyes you have, Mr. Brooke.

  • Options
    smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    MaxPB said:

    tim said:



    Quake before the power of Dave's olive oil in jug abstention you Eurocrats.

    Maybe it's a cunning plan and that's what he's going to renegotiate, emerging victorious at Heathrow 4am with an unlabelled jug of olive oil urging a Yes vote.

    The EU already u-turned.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10076201/EU-drops-olive-oil-jug-ban-after-public-outcry.html
    Olive Oil? Did they also ban Popeye too?

    :)
    No but its rumoured they are voting next week on whether to force the renaming of "Wimpy" as "Ronald McDonald"
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    AveryLP said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    tim said:

    Neil said:

    I wouldnt normally post this ... but my god it's so cute:

    http://www.irishtimes.com/purrfect-harmony-mother-cat-suckles-ducklings-1.1404532

    I'm sure it will have tim spitting feathers ;)

    I'd regard it as a challenge, a Southern Rhone white with the young tender ducklings, but a Pinot Noir with the cat, so a lightish Beajolais with them casseroled together.
    I suspect the cat is playing the long game and will polish off the ducklings when they get a bit meatier.
    My what big eyes you have, Mr. Brooke.

    I do love a slow roasted duck Mr Pole.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Tim

    CBBC wasn't a channel originally. It was the name given to the children's section on BBC1 between about 3:30pm and 5:30pm on weekdays, with people like Phillip Schofield, Andy Crane and Andi Peters as presenters.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Mr. JS, you missed off Ed the Duck.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,309
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. JS, you missed off Ed the Duck.

    And Gordon the Gopher!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    CBBC in its first year of broadcast in 1985:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTFXmRSl49A
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,983
    Dr. Prasannan: !

    CBBC has correctly predicted two consecutive Labour leaders.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,309
    AndyJS said:

    CBBC in its first year of broadcast in 1985:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTFXmRSl49A

    I was 10 that year! Those were the days.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,309
    SeanT said:

    Max temp tomorrow, predicted: 9C

    Please dear Lord, let your people go. We have suffered enough.

    Ha! Where's yer global warming now?

    :)
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,309
    edited May 2013
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Dr. Prasannan: !

    CBBC has correctly predicted two consecutive Labour leaders.

    That's true, Mr Dancer, but can't remember any Tony's!
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    This by-election is caused by the Green councillor resigning. But the Greens were literally a one man band in Bolsover. So they are not fielding a candidate.
    The Whitwell Residents Association won both seats in the ward in 2003 and 2007. The current sitting Residents Cllr managed to get elected also in 1995-1999.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    Lone voice of real sanity in Belfast: Peter Tatchell.

    *cognitive dissonance overload*

    I was thinking much the same, though Maajid Nawaz is also very sensible.

    So much better than the prat Anjem Choudhary on the other side.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Telegraph comments on the Woolwich incident are appearing on this page because comments are not allowed on the page dedicated to the subject, (choose the best rating option):

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100218460/the-republicans-worst-nighmare-losing-texas-and-becoming-extinct-could-it-really-happen/#disqus_thread
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour really ought to win the Bolsover by-election easily.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    Labour really ought to win the Bolsover by-election easily.

    Why?
    At least 1 Resident Cllr was elected there even in 1995.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @Andrea

    Just because the Bolsover constituency is a seat where Labour took 65% of the vote the last time they won a general election and this is obviously a left-wing ward if it was hotly contested between the Greens and Labour last time.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    AndyJS said:

    @Andrea

    Just because the Bolsover constituency is a seat where Labour took 65% of the vote the last time they won a general election and this is obviously a left-wing ward if it was hotly contested between the Greens and Labour last time.

    No it wasn't , the result last time ( 2 seats ) was
    Green 453 Res 452/326 Lab 383/342 Ind 378

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    @Andrea

    Just because the Bolsover constituency is a seat where Labour took 65% of the vote the last time they won a general election and this is obviously a left-wing ward if it was hotly contested between the Greens and Labour last time.

    You are forgetting the Residents Association!

    2011 Green 453 Residents 452 Lab 383 Ind 378 Lab 342 Residents 326
    2007 Residents 631 Residents 468 Ind 429 Lab 357 Lab 308
    2003 Residents 755 Residents 618 Lab 428 Lab 373

    Without Residents, I agrere that Labour should probably poll 60%. But it's pretty clear that some voters go for the Independents here when they are available especially as it won't affect the council control.



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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    According to the Telegraph tonight one had long been identified by the Intelligence Community the other is being researched, for a criminal history. The post I did last night said one was known certainly to the Security Service and the other had a record so that info may well turn out be correct if I read what the Telegraph is saying correctly.

    There will sadly be much finger pointing about the well known case but such is the system that suspicion gets you nowhere in practice unless you fancy 24/7 monitoring.

    I suspect the fact that there appeared to be two government committee meetings in quick succession reflects that there was a thick file on no.1, a lot of queries are being raised and the same higher profile background figures and groups have popped up..again.
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    Lewis_DuckworthLewis_Duckworth Posts: 90
    Cameron stands in Downing Street and says what happened at Woolwich "will pull us closer together".

    Does this resonate with what you and others are thinking?

    Or is this some updated version of "The Emperor's New Clothes"?
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Lewis_Duckworth said:

    Cameron stands in Downing Street and says what happened at Woolwich "will pull us closer together".

    Does this resonate with what you and others are thinking?

    Or is this some updated version of "The Emperor's New Clothes"?

    He's talking out of his arse.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Bolsover is one of those places where no party activist seem to have internet-twitter and so you may just have to wait for the council to update their website in the morning!
    Hopefully we will get a word somehow.....as it's not a large ward with many votes to count...
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    Lewis_DuckworthLewis_Duckworth Posts: 90
    AndyJS said:

    Telegraph comments on the Woolwich incident are appearing on this page because comments are not allowed on the page dedicated to the subject, (choose the best rating option):

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timwigmore/100218460/the-republicans-worst-nighmare-losing-texas-and-becoming-extinct-could-it-really-happen/#disqus_thread

    DT has a blog "We Need To Talk About Islamism". Comments are closed! Irony?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/alanjohnson/100218584/we-need-to-talk-about-islamism/#disqus_thread

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    The question is how many people have stood outside the Old Bailey calling on people who insult Islam to be beheaded. If the answer is not many MI5 have some serious questions to answer.

    On the other hand if a lot of people have done so it isn't very reassuring in itself.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does Dennis Skinner have an email address yet? He certainly didn't a couple of years ago.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Maybe someone has a carrier pigeon.
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Bolsover is one of those places where no party activist seem to have internet-twitter and so you may just have to wait for the council to update their website in the morning!
    Hopefully we will get a word somehow.....as it's not a large ward with many votes to count...

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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2013
    He has the official @parliament address.

    He doesn't have a website yet.

    When IPSA introduced their new computer system to claim expenses, it was reported he needed a 2 hours course.
    AndyJS said:

    Does Dennis Skinner have an email address yet? He certainly didn't a couple of years ago.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Footage of suspects being shot by police here.

    No time to aim to wound it would seem

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/woolwich-attack-watch-shocking-video-1907772

    It does look as if the suspects planned an attack on the police when they arrived, perhaps intending to be killed.

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    @foxinsoxuk

    Apparently they were shot at 8 times. That would seem to imply either the police wanted to capture them alive or, frankly, aren't very good shots.
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    MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    AndyJS said:

    @foxinsoxuk

    Apparently they were shot at 8 times. That would seem to imply either the police wanted to capture them alive or, frankly, aren't very good shots.

    Panic i expect.
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    AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    I think I will go to bed without waiting for the pigeon!
    old_labour said:

    Maybe someone has a carrier pigeon.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    From an Eton scholarship exam 2011

    "The year is 2040. There have been riots in the streets of London after Britain has run out of petrol because of an oil crisis in the Middle East. Protesters have attacked public buildings. Several policemen have died. Consequently, the Government has deployed the Army to curb the protests. After two days the protests have been stopped but twenty five protesters have been killed by the Army. You are the Prime Minister. Write the script for a speech to be broadcast to the nation in which you explain why employing the Army against violent protesters was the only option available to you and one which was both necessary and moral."

    http://www.etoncollege.com/userfiles/file/KS 2011 General Paper 1.pdf
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    HYUFD said:

    From an Eton scholarship exam 2011

    "The year is 2040. There have been riots in the streets of London after Britain has run out of petrol because of an oil crisis in the Middle East. Protesters have attacked public buildings. Several policemen have died. Consequently, the Government has deployed the Army to curb the protests. After two days the protests have been stopped but twenty five protesters have been killed by the Army. You are the Prime Minister. Write the script for a speech to be broadcast to the nation in which you explain why employing the Army against violent protesters was the only option available to you and one which was both necessary and moral."

    http://www.etoncollege.com/userfiles/file/KS 2011 General Paper 1.pdf

    Ein Volk, Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer!

    And it will be probably be 2020, not 2040...

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    I'm surprised some of the muppets pointing phone-cams at the police weren't shot also....
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    redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    RodCrosby said:

    I'm surprised some of the muppets pointing phone-cams at the police weren't shot also....

    Only half in jest there Rod.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bolsover must be the least connected place in the UK...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Carl XVI Gustaf is invested as King of Sweden on 19th September 1973:

    http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=G2LtEKd7MqU&desktop_uri=/watch?v=G2LtEKd7MqU
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    FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Latest YouGov / The Sun results 23rd May - CON 29%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 13%; APP -34
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,674
    edited May 2013
    Con take a hammering in YouGov - Lab on +13

    Con vs Lab:

    "Old & tired": +13 (+9)
    "Heart in right place: -11 (-5)
    "Left past behind it: -8 (-5)
    "Appeals to one section of society": +30 (+4)

    http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/8lvxse4f91/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230513.pdf
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    RodCrosby said:

    HYUFD said:

    From an Eton scholarship exam 2011

    "The year is 2040. There have been riots in the streets of London after Britain has run out of petrol because of an oil crisis in the Middle East. Protesters have attacked public buildings. Several policemen have died. Consequently, the Government has deployed the Army to curb the protests. After two days the protests have been stopped but twenty five protesters have been killed by the Army. You are the Prime Minister. Write the script for a speech to be broadcast to the nation in which you explain why employing the Army against violent protesters was the only option available to you and one which was both necessary and moral."

    http://www.etoncollege.com/userfiles/file/KS 2011 General Paper 1.pdf

    ...

    And it will be probably be 2020, not 2040...

    But it's much more likely that one of those taking the scholarship will be PM in 2040 than 2020. The year is deliberately designed to make those taking the exam think "actually, that could be me making the speech". 2050 would have been even better.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SeanT said:

    Max temp tomorrow, predicted: 9C

    Please dear Lord, let your people go. We have suffered enough.

    Lucky you. It was 3C and sleeting going into work yesterday, which did at least offer some variety from the 5C and hail we got on the way back, and the wind, rain and bloody miserableness this morning. Welcome to Yorkshire, home of Le Tour's Grand Depart 2014.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2013
    @ D Herdson

    Doesn't look like there will be much play at Headingly today either, forecast is dire
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SquareRoot said:

    @ D Herdson

    Doesn't look like there will be much play at Headingly today either, forecast is dire

    I've learned my lesson about attending Headingley test matches this early in the year, after going to this one:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1552911/Nice-weather-for-a-duck-say-cricket-fans.html
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    AndyJS said:

    CBBC in its first year of broadcast in 1985:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTFXmRSl49A

    While he was presenting from the so-called "broom cupboard" on 1st October 1986, Philip Schofield read out a 24½th birthday card which he had received from a viewer. That inspired me to send non-birthday birthday cards, and ever since then I have frequently sent birthday cards to some of my favourite gorgeous hunks on their n+½th birthday or their 7000th or 8000th or 10,000th (etc.) birthdays [counting according to days instead of years]. It's a good excuse for sending more than one birthday card per year.

    On Peter Phillips's 25th birthday I sent him 15 birthday cards (I thought 25 might be a bit excessive).
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    JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    I wasn't previously aware of the book mentioned in the previous thread (by Rawlings & Thrasher). Is it essentially an updated version of the book of the same name by F.W.S. Craig? I have the edition which covers 1832-1987.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754

    University fees a con, the graduate premium is disappearing for most degress. Young people taken to the cleaners by idiots like David Willetts. ( who got his education for free of course )

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/10076606/Wage-premium-of-a-degree-falls-by-a-third-under-university-boom.html
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    We are going camping this weekend. The same time last year was glorious. My son spent most of the time just in his nappy (when he hadn't managed to wrestle that off too). This year we are packing woollies!

    Have find memories of CBBC. Now we have CBeebies, the small one here loves it.

    Those Yougov numbers are terrible for the Tories!
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited May 2013
    Alanbrooke said:


    University fees a con, the graduate premium is disappearing for most degress. Young people taken to the cleaners by idiots like David Willetts.

    So as the number of graduates increased, and that was not matched by a rise in the number of graduate level jobs (ok, so some sectors have seen a rise but not across all disciplines) that either graduate level pay has dropped and/or graduates have had to seek other jobs?

    Strange thing this supply and demand, who knew?!

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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    tim said:

    DaemonBarber said:



    Those Yougov numbers are terrible for the Tories!


    It's in the national interest to get rid of Osborne ASAP.

    George Osborne's property bubble will lead to disaster
    The Chancellor is pouring billions into sub-prime debt. What could possibly go wrong?

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8915781/osbornes-bubble/
    Finding it hard to disagree with you this morning.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,003
    tim said:

    DaemonBarber said:



    Those Yougov numbers are terrible for the Tories!


    It's in the national interest to get rid of Osborne ASAP.

    George Osborne's property bubble will lead to disaster
    The Chancellor is pouring billions into sub-prime debt. What could possibly go wrong?

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8915781/osbornes-bubble/
    That is an argument.

    However your solution is to replace him with an even more incompetent bunch. And we can say that with some certainty, as they mucked up when they were in charge!

    Labour has to get rid of Ed Balls. Indeed, to ever get my vote, they'd have to get rid of all the poisonous characters who were in charge during the Blair / Brown years.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    Froch @ 1.5 vs Kessler @ 3.1....

    am I missing something?
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    JosiasJessop said:

    tim said:

    DaemonBarber said:



    Those Yougov numbers are terrible for the Tories!


    It's in the national interest to get rid of Osborne ASAP.

    George Osborne's property bubble will lead to disaster
    The Chancellor is pouring billions into sub-prime debt. What could possibly go wrong?

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8915781/osbornes-bubble/
    That is an argument.

    However your solution is to replace him with an even more incompetent bunch. And we can say that with some certainty, as they mucked up when they were in charge!

    Labour has to get rid of Ed Balls. Indeed, to ever get my vote, they'd have to get rid of all the poisonous characters who were in charge during the Blair / Brown years.
    Ken Clarke?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    DaemonBarber said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    University fees a con, the graduate premium is disappearing for most degress. Young people taken to the cleaners by idiots like David Willetts.

    So as the number of graduates increased, and that was not matched by a rise in the number of graduate level jobs (ok, so some sectors have seen a rise but not across all disciplines) that either graduate level pay has dropped and/or graduates have had to seek other jobs?

    Strange thing this supply and demand, who knew?!

    Totally astounding. You send a chap to Oxford he gets a first in PPE, people tell him he has two brains but he appears oblivious to the first principles of a market. What an education.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Alanbrooke said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    University fees a con, the graduate premium is disappearing for most degress. Young people taken to the cleaners by idiots like David Willetts.

    So as the number of graduates increased, and that was not matched by a rise in the number of graduate level jobs (ok, so some sectors have seen a rise but not across all disciplines) that either graduate level pay has dropped and/or graduates have had to seek other jobs?

    Strange thing this supply and demand, who knew?!

    Totally astounding. You send a chap to Oxford he gets a first in PPE, people tell him he has two brains but he appears oblivious to the first principles of a market. What an education.
    Too much time on the PP part and not enough on the E. Third brain needed?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2013
    TOPPING said:

    Froch @ 1.5 vs Kessler @ 3.1....

    am I missing something?

    Looks like value for Kessler to me, this is probably a true 2.1/2.1/20ish fight. Should be an absolute humdinger anyway.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TOPPING said:

    Froch @ 1.5 vs Kessler @ 3.1....

    am I missing something?

    Where???
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Froch @ 1.5 vs Kessler @ 3.1....

    am I missing something?

    Looks like value for Kessler to me, this is probably a true 2.1/2.1/20ish fight.
    agree.

    @DaemonBarber

    well not only do I fancy Kessler but even if Froch wins, it will be close ref @Pulpstar
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10077563/Woolwich-angels-who-cradled-dead-soldier-deny-being-brave.html

    Those women are an example to us all.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    Froch @ 1.5 vs Kessler @ 3.1....

    am I missing something?

    Looks like value for Kessler to me, this is probably a true 2.1/2.1/20ish fight.
    agree.

    @DaemonBarber

    well not only do I fancy Kessler but even if Froch wins, it will be close ref @Pulpstar
    I mean where do you see those odds (am on corp network so lots of sites blocked)
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,306
    Alanbrooke said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    University fees a con, the graduate premium is disappearing for most degress. Young people taken to the cleaners by idiots like David Willetts.

    So as the number of graduates increased, and that was not matched by a rise in the number of graduate level jobs (ok, so some sectors have seen a rise but not across all disciplines) that either graduate level pay has dropped and/or graduates have had to seek other jobs?

    Strange thing this supply and demand, who knew?!

    Totally astounding. You send a chap to Oxford he gets a first in PPE, people tell him he has two brains but he appears oblivious to the first principles of a market. What an education.
    You are right. It is almost as absurd as those who think that the government can stimulate private housebuilding in this country without helping to increase demand. Osborne's policy will increase the number of buyers by removing the need for such large deposits. Those deposits are needed because lenders are apprehensive that housing prices might fall further. By increasing the number of buyers that risk is reduced.

    A housing bubble? Not really. I will be amazed if this scheme gets demand back to 75% of where it was 2000-2006. There may be a bump at the start because of frustrated demand but housing will not really take off until real wages do whatever credit is made available.

    The reason Tim is so abusive of this policy is that he is scared it might work.

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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    "The reason Tim is so abusive of this policy is that he is scared it might work."

    I concur.

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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    edited May 2013
    DaemonBarber said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    University fees a con, the graduate premium is disappearing for most degress. Young people taken to the cleaners by idiots like David Willetts.

    So as the number of graduates increased, and that was not matched by a rise in the number of graduate level jobs (ok, so some sectors have seen a rise but not across all disciplines) that either graduate level pay has dropped and/or graduates have had to seek other jobs?

    Strange thing this supply and demand, who knew?!

    Totally astounding. You send a chap to Oxford he gets a first in PPE, people tell him he has two brains but he appears oblivious to the first principles of a market. What an education.
    Too much time on the PP part and not enough on the E. Third brain needed?
    whatever party it is the E appears to be irrelevant, none of then whether it's Balls in labour or Dave in the Conservatives has the faintest idea about real world economics.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    @DaemonBarber

    ah! sorry - Betfair.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @DavidL - as with so many comments from the Red Team, the rising GDP figs, falling inflation, increasing employment and big drop in net immigration are all pointers to a positive head-wind for HMG - and they're understandably worried.

    Personally, I'd like to see it as generally good for UK plc whomever is in charge.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    DavidL said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    Alanbrooke said:


    University fees a con, the graduate premium is disappearing for most degress. Young people taken to the cleaners by idiots like David Willetts.

    So as the number of graduates increased, and that was not matched by a rise in the number of graduate level jobs (ok, so some sectors have seen a rise but not across all disciplines) that either graduate level pay has dropped and/or graduates have had to seek other jobs?

    Strange thing this supply and demand, who knew?!

    Totally astounding. You send a chap to Oxford he gets a first in PPE, people tell him he has two brains but he appears oblivious to the first principles of a market. What an education.
    You are right. It is almost as absurd as those who think that the government can stimulate private housebuilding in this country without helping to increase demand. Osborne's policy will increase the number of buyers by removing the need for such large deposits. Those deposits are needed because lenders are apprehensive that housing prices might fall further. By increasing the number of buyers that risk is reduced.

    A housing bubble? Not really. I will be amazed if this scheme gets demand back to 75% of where it was 2000-2006. There may be a bump at the start because of frustrated demand but housing will not really take off until real wages do whatever credit is made available.

    The reason Tim is so abusive of this policy is that he is scared it might work.

    Sorry I'm with tim on this one though for different reasons.

    The reason we have GOs nonsense scheme is because he has refused to reform the banks. There will not be an effective commercial finance system until this is done and until the government grasps the nettle and breaks up the banking oligopoly. This means we will have to accept write downs on non-performing assets, but better to do it all at once than the salami slicing we have at present.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TOPPING said:

    @DaemonBarber

    ah! sorry - Betfair.

    Thanks. Now I just need to find somewhere with decent 3G signal.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,336
    Great poll for Labour though the jump is for no obvious reason - unlike some I don't expect Woolwich to have a major impact on voting intention (nor should it), and it's hard to think of anything else particular that happened in the period. Possibly an outlier, but the second good poll poll in short order. Interesting. Carlotta's comparative figures don't look quite right BTW.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,336
    Cyclefree said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/10077563/Woolwich-angels-who-cradled-dead-soldier-deny-being-brave.html

    Those women are an example to us all.

    Very much so. I see one of them is going to a job fair to try to find work - suspect there are not a few employers who would hire her sight unseen, on the basis that a 20-year-old with that degree of responsbility has to have considerable potential.
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    BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Re: today's Yougov

    A very tentative sign Labour may be beginning to seal the deal for 2015?

    Anyway poor old Dan Hodges will be choking on his cornflakes.
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    Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    O/T
    Just been VI'd by YouGov
    A number of supplementary questions on the EDL and if there will be violence between various ethnic groups.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754
    BenM said:

    Re: today's Yougov

    A very tentative sign Labour may be beginning to seal the deal for 2015?

    Anyway poor old Dan Hodges will be choking on his cornflakes.

    Don't be silly, Ed's been nowhere to be seen. Wheel him out and watch the labour share start to drop.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,674
    NickPalmer said:

    . Carlotta's comparative figures don't look quite right BTW.

    Which?
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    edited May 2013
    @BenM

    a bit previous surely Ben? These are great snapshots of the current mood but I wouldn't read anything 2015-ish into them.

    Cons: in a muddle & divided over Europe
    LD: Just _what_ is NC up to
    UKIP: ok we are beginning to realise NOTA is not a viable way to run the country
    which leaves
    Lab

    It'll be different next week as these issue filter down.
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    Lewis_DuckworthLewis_Duckworth Posts: 90
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    O/T
    Just been VI'd by YouGov
    A number of supplementary questions on the EDL and if there will be violence between various ethnic groups.

    Interesting.

    Headline on Bloomberg this morning:

    "Stockholm police call for reinforcements after fifth night of rioting".

    Is this what they call Scandinoir?
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    BenM said:

    Anyway poor old Dan Hodges will be choking on his cornflakes.

    Dan Hodges - lines to take - 24 May 2013

    The increased Labour share is bad news for Ed because it will lead to increased scrutiny of Ed, and Ed is crap, so this increased scrutiny will reduce the Labour share
    The increased Lib Dem share is bad news for Ed because it shows that the centre-left vote is once again beginning to split between Labour and the Lib Dems, probably because Ed is crap, and will make it harder for Labour to take key marginals
    The decreased UKIP share is bad news for Ed because it shows that the appeal of NOTA is waning, and once voters return to the mainstream parties, because Ed is crap, they will return to Lib Dems or Conservatives
    The decreased Conservative share is bad news for Ed because it shows that voters are turned off by Cameron not being tough enough on Europe/being too socially liberal, both of which are flaws which Ed (who, it may be said, is crap) shares in superabundance and therefore will, in time, suffer from the same drop in vote share.

    See? It's easy to avoid choking on the cornflakes and churn out another one, if not four, articles off the back of that poll.
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