I don't think Quebec is a good guide for Scotland, except it's an independence referendum and it looks to be very close. My understanding is that Quebec was very tribal: if you were French speaking you were 90% or something likely to vote Yes; anybody else 90% No.
Scotland is absolutely mixed up. While, say older people and women are a bit more likely to vote No and men in a mid life crisis more likely to vote Yes; Edinburgh a bit more No; Dundee a bit more Yes and so on, every region and demographic except other UK-born residents are split roughly within the 40%-60% band.
I believe Dundee is VERY Yes.
I wonder why though. I've only been once and it seems a most unexceptional town. What is it in the Dundonian psyche that makes them so Natty?
The place is nicknamed 'Scumdee'. Perhaps Dundonians have found a way to push back after years of being the butt of jokes et al.
I don't think Quebec is a good guide for Scotland, except it's an independence referendum and it looks to be very close. My understanding is that Quebec was very tribal: if you were French speaking you were 90% or something likely to vote Yes; anybody else 90% No.
Scotland is absolutely mixed up. While, say older people and women are a bit more likely to vote No and men in a mid life crisis more likely to vote Yes; Edinburgh a bit more No; Dundee a bit more Yes and so on, every region and demographic except other UK-born residents are split roughly within the 40%-60% band.
Should check Wikipedia before posting. 80% of Quebeckers speak French, so there must have been at least some perfidious francophones
I don't think Quebec is a good guide for Scotland, except it's an independence referendum and it looks to be very close. My understanding is that Quebec was very tribal: if you were French speaking you were 90% or something likely to vote Yes; anybody else 90% No.
Scotland is absolutely mixed up. While, say older people and women are a bit more likely to vote No and men in a mid life crisis more likely to vote Yes; Edinburgh a bit more No; Dundee a bit more Yes and so on, every region and demographic except other UK-born residents are split roughly within the 40%-60% band.
I believe Dundee is VERY Yes.
I wonder why though. I've only been once and it seems a most unexceptional town. What is it in the Dundonian psyche that makes them so Natty?
No idea (and it's pro-indy rather than pro-SNP to be more precise). If so, that is. The more appropriate question might be, what makes Edinburgh or Glasgow relatively strong for No? For which there are obvious answers (if rather different ones).
chickens on here are in complete meltdown, think how bad it will be Friday after YES wins
I rather think it will be calm, with a lot of focus on the minutiae of the vote breakdown by region, gender, etc (should it be available). Some congratulations to Eck and discussion on what the next steps are. EdM will be blamed by half the commenters, the other half will call them delusional and blame Cameron. [plus ca change, you might say]
Anyway, you're spared whatever happens - aren't you off on your hols?
I don't think Quebec is a good guide for Scotland, except it's an independence referendum and it looks to be very close. My understanding is that Quebec was very tribal: if you were French speaking you were 90% or something likely to vote Yes; anybody else 90% No.
Scotland is absolutely mixed up. While, say older people and women are a bit more likely to vote No and men in a mid life crisis more likely to vote Yes; Edinburgh a bit more No; Dundee a bit more Yes and so on, every region and demographic except other UK-born residents are split roughly within the 40%-60% band.
I believe Dundee is VERY Yes.
I wonder why though. I've only been once and it seems a most unexceptional town. What is it in the Dundonian psyche that makes them so Natty?
It is a city that may seem unexceptional but has always had it's rebellious streak.
Your talking about a city that voted a prohibitionist to parliament and dumped Churchill.
I don't think Quebec is a good guide for Scotland, except it's an independence referendum and it looks to be very close. My understanding is that Quebec was very tribal: if you were French speaking you were 90% or something likely to vote Yes; anybody else 90% No.
Scotland is absolutely mixed up. While, say older people and women are a bit more likely to vote No and men in a mid life crisis more likely to vote Yes; Edinburgh a bit more No; Dundee a bit more Yes and so on, every region and demographic except other UK-born residents are split roughly within the 40%-60% band.
I believe Dundee is VERY Yes.
I wonder why though. I've only been once and it seems a most unexceptional town. What is it in the Dundonian psyche that makes them so Natty?
If Dundee were on the east coast of England it would be ripe for UKIP. WWC disgust with the status quo.
I may have previously given the inadvertent impression that I thought Sean Connery was the best James Bond. To be clear, I think he was the worst James Bond, worse even than Timothy "Who?" Dalton and Sylvester McCoy.
I don't think Quebec is a good guide for Scotland, except it's an independence referendum and it looks to be very close. My understanding is that Quebec was very tribal: if you were French speaking you were 90% or something likely to vote Yes; anybody else 90% No.
Scotland is absolutely mixed up. While, say older people and women are a bit more likely to vote No and men in a mid life crisis more likely to vote Yes; Edinburgh a bit more No; Dundee a bit more Yes and so on, every region and demographic except other UK-born residents are split roughly within the 40%-60% band.
I believe Dundee is VERY Yes.
I wonder why though. I've only been once and it seems a most unexceptional town. What is it in the Dundonian psyche that makes them so Natty?
The place is nicknamed 'Scumdee'. Perhaps Dundonians have found a way to push back after years of being the butt of jokes et al.
(c) Jerry Sadowitz
What do you get if you pour boiling water over someone from Dundee ?
For me the win-win on Friday is that the result will be a monumental humiliation for either Cameron or Salmond. As I dislike both equally, there will be some satisfaction to be had in that.
When the independence referendum process started people had all kinds of bold predictions of Yes not even getting to 30%, do you really thing a 47/53 to No vote would be a 'humiliation' for Salmond?
Quite so. I think it will be about that: N 53/Y 47, and this will represent a triumph for Salmond, PLUS he gets devomax anyway.
I also think the Scots might then give him a consolation prize of a very big vote in 2015.
I imagine he would then retire, with honours, having brought Scotland to virtual-independence, and made the SNP the biggest Scottish party in Holyrood and Westminster.
That's if he loses on Thursday.
If he wins he will go down as the man who won the vote but screwed the economy (which it will). That's actually less good. Paradoxically.
DevoMax means full fiscal autonomy. No such offer has been made by any WM party.
It will happen when we go into the political rinse cycle. There's no going back now.
No Westminster party would be dumb enough to had full control over Scotlnad's income to Scotland. When it's made clear how much Scotland has been subsidising the rest of the UK the SCottish people would realise how much they've been screwed for the last thirty years.
Westminster has gone to great lengths to hide how much money Scotland generates for the Union and to promulgate the myth of "subsidy junkies" they wouldn't want to open the books now.
I think the English, Welsh and Northern Irish taxpayer remembers very well the enormous sums required to save the Scottish banks. Put a sock in it.
I may have previously given the inadvertent impression that I thought Sean Connery was the best James Bond. To be clear, I think he was the worst James Bond, worse even than Timothy "Who?" Dalton and Sylvester McCoy.
I don't think Quebec is a good guide for Scotland, except it's an independence referendum and it looks to be very close. My understanding is that Quebec was very tribal: if you were French speaking you were 90% or something likely to vote Yes; anybody else 90% No.
Scotland is absolutely mixed up. While, say older people and women are a bit more likely to vote No and men in a mid life crisis more likely to vote Yes; Edinburgh a bit more No; Dundee a bit more Yes and so on, every region and demographic except other UK-born residents are split roughly within the 40%-60% band.
I believe Dundee is VERY Yes.
I wonder why though. I've only been once and it seems a most unexceptional town. What is it in the Dundonian psyche that makes them so Natty?
The place is nicknamed 'Scumdee'. Perhaps Dundonians have found a way to push back after years of being the butt of jokes et al.
(c) Jerry Sadowitz
What do you get if you pour boiling water over someone from Dundee ?
Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.
Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.
Sorry, but clearly you have absolutely no idea what things were like. I wasn't born till Thatcher's fourth year in power, but I have educated myself since. Look up 'closed shop'. Look up 'winter of discontent'. Have a look at this video of cancer patients going untreated because of hospital strikes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k8lMc3QmSk -Wise up a bit for heaven's sake.
Are you really using cancer patients not getting treated as an argument, when the health service became such a far bigger mess under Thatcher?!?!?
Did cancer death rates worsen under Thatcher - or is that 'something you read on the internet'.....?
Out of curiosity, were you around before she came to power?
Mrs T had many virtues but anyway trying to claim that the NHS was in better shape when she left office that when she arrived is simply having a laugh. And yes, I was there.
@ Stackbladder, Tissue_Price, TSE, CarlottaVance, RodCrosby and anyone that I missed, thank you all for the feedback, I guess I've been lurking on here for too long!
Nice to see other people working on models: @ RodCrosby I didn't quite follow which area was which in your graphic but it sounds very interesting. @ AndyJS thanks for the posts on my site, I'll take a look at your spreadsheet when I've closed a few other spreadsheets My computer is about to explode!
Regarding the 1992 exit poll, it actually wasn't *that* far off in terms of the popular vote, certainly nothing like as bad as the opinion polls... BBC didn't give the popular vote totals, but ITN (a separate poll in those days, but with very similar seat projections) had CON 41 LAB 37 LIB 18 OTH 4 (see http://www.tv-ark.org.uk/mivana/mediaplayer.php?id=fb0c6d35c21fe72eccde5b61277efc2f&media=itv_election1992&type=mp4 ). It also did a good job of picking up the electoral "skew" towards Labour, which hadn't been there in 1987. Jon Snow actually mentions this directly in the linked video.
Incidentally I've been doing some work on this 'skew' which I'll post at some point after the referendum.
Sorry, but clearly you have absolutely no idea what things were like. I wasn't born till Thatcher's fourth year in power, but I have educated myself since. Look up 'closed shop'. Look up 'winter of discontent'. Have a look at this video of cancer patients going untreated because of hospital strikes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k8lMc3QmSk -Wise up a bit for heaven's sake.
Are you really using cancer patients not getting treated as an argument, when the health service became such a far bigger mess under Thatcher?!?!?
Did cancer death rates worsen under Thatcher - or is that 'something you read on the internet'.....?
Out of curiosity, were you around before she came to power?
Mrs T had many virtues but anyway trying to claim that the NHS was in better shape when she left office that when she arrived is simply having a laugh. And yes, I was there.
Do you have any evidence of that? As in a few facts, rather than Ben Elton sketches? Because it's right up there with Thatcher closed the most pits myth, so it would be good to put it to bed one way or the other.
For me the win-win on Friday is that the result will be a monumental humiliation for either Cameron or Salmond. As I dislike both equally, there will be some satisfaction to be had in that.
When the independence referendum process started people had all kinds of bold predictions of Yes not even getting to 30%, do you really thing a 47/53 to No vote would be a 'humiliation' for Salmond?
Quite so. I think it will be about that: N 53/Y 47, and this will represent a triumph for Salmond, PLUS he gets devomax anyway.
I also think the Scots might then give him a consolation prize of a very big vote in 2015.
I imagine he would then retire, with honours, having brought Scotland to virtual-independence, and made the SNP the biggest Scottish party in Holyrood and Westminster.
That's if he loses on Thursday.
If he wins he will go down as the man who won the vote but screwed the economy (which it will). That's actually less good. Paradoxically.
DevoMax means full fiscal autonomy. No such offer has been made by any WM party.
It will happen when we go into the political rinse cycle. There's no going back now.
No Westminster party would be dumb enough to had full control over Scotlnad's income to Scotland. When it's made clear how much Scotland has been subsidising the rest of the UK the SCottish people would realise how much they've been screwed for the last thirty years.
Westminster has gone to great lengths to hide how much money Scotland generates for the Union and to promulgate the myth of "subsidy junkies" they wouldn't want to open the books now.
Delusional
I Scotland had received the same share of UK public spending as its contribution to trevenue received from 2008-09 to 2012-13, It wopuld have been £7.6 billion better off.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29207858
Anyway, you're spared whatever happens - aren't you off on your hols?
Your talking about a city that voted a prohibitionist to parliament and dumped Churchill.
Think that would suit my bets the best.
What do you get if you pour boiling water over someone from Dundee ?
A new flavour of pot noodle.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11096687/Fears-olive-oil-price-set-to-soar-as-shortage-bites.html
Let's face it, you've won either way, and shattered the labour party while you're about it.
I'm more than happy to say, nobody does the powerful fightback speech quite like him (in Politics).
Why are we paying them to eat deep-fried mars bars when we can’t even get decent health care in this country? - Nadine Dorries
Just read the first few lines of Ferguson's idiocy on why an English Parliament would be terrible. For the sake of time (I should be working) and loathing I stopped reading, but did enjoy the very sensible comments by Mr. Slackbladder and Mr. T.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/the-last-think-england-needs-is-an-english-parliament/
He is a political counter puncher by instinct. He likes to let the other guy make the first move...
Can that be right? - it's a village ffs.
Nice to see other people working on models:
@ RodCrosby I didn't quite follow which area was which in your graphic but it sounds very interesting.
@ AndyJS thanks for the posts on my site, I'll take a look at your spreadsheet when I've closed a few other spreadsheets
Regarding the 1992 exit poll, it actually wasn't *that* far off in terms of the popular vote, certainly nothing like as bad as the opinion polls... BBC didn't give the popular vote totals, but ITN (a separate poll in those days, but with very similar seat projections) had CON 41 LAB 37 LIB 18 OTH 4 (see http://www.tv-ark.org.uk/mivana/mediaplayer.php?id=fb0c6d35c21fe72eccde5b61277efc2f&media=itv_election1992&type=mp4 ). It also did a good job of picking up the electoral "skew" towards Labour, which hadn't been there in 1987. Jon Snow actually mentions this directly in the linked video.
Incidentally I've been doing some work on this 'skew' which I'll post at some point after the referendum.
NC
Source:GERS 2012-13 chapters 2 and 4