I see Mr CHINA STRONG!!! is arguing that Cammers fecked-up by refusing to give the Jocks DevoMax. Obviously he is not too bright when it comes to democracy and the-will-of-the-people....
Scotland could vote for devolution as it was in respect with their governance. Dave-C [not the aircraft that we should have bought] allowed Scots to choose independence because it reflects their democratic ambitions. To allow Scots to define what DevoMax is and how to apply it would be like a Peronist nationalising pensions and a Boer disenfranchising 90% of the population.
It is utterly tragic yet also ridiculous that we are apparently facing the dissolution and Partition of our magnificent, storied, proud, spectacular 300 year old nation because of... The bedroom tax.
It was once said the British acquired their empire in a fit of absent-mindedness. We are about to lose Britain itself the same way.
And it's not like the Scots even wanted this. They wanted Devomax. Cameron refused. Because he is a flailing idiot.
For that reason alone he must resign post-YES. But he will resign anyway. The psychic pressure, inner and outer, would be intolerable. The passionate unionist and old Etonian who broke up the Union? He will be publicly disgraced and diminished. Weak men would consider suicide. Imagine him at the next G8 meeting, having just lost a third of his country. Intolerable humiliation.
He will resign.
Sean sometimes you do write utter crap. There is one person and one person alone responsible if we Scots vote YES in 12 days time. That person is Tony Blair. The day he created the Scottish Parliament was the day he subjected the UK to the inevitable break-up.
He even failed to create a "fixed" electoral system to prevent the SNP taking power. The hybrid system we have for Holyrood was said by the experts to be impossible for one party to win, even Scottish Labour. Well as we know, Scottish Labour didn't win but the SNP did and the rest will be history.
David Cameron should not resign. DevoMax would not have been a solution. Like the 1998 Scottish Parliament proposal, it would only have been a half-way house to full independence. The only party with a sensible policy which might have saved the UK in the long run was the Liberals (not LibDems) and their long held Federal system within the UK.
Even if Scotland votes NO in 12 days time, it will be a very narrow win and we Scots will be back voting again in 5 years in a 2nd referendum.
Like a runaway train which has been shunted on to the Tony Blair siding, there is no other conclusion than hitting the buffers with a mighty bang, either in 12 days time or in a few years time. Scotland is no Quebec.
As ever, I'm right and you're wrong. I've basically been right about every aspect of indyref from the off.
Blair is if course to blame, but so is Cameron. He took a huge gamble. And if he loses?.
Weren't you fanboy deluxe just a few weeks ago suggesting Darling would recieve the thanks and honours of a grateful nation?
No one is responsible for the end/continuation of the union other than the people of Scotland who vote for it. It was a referendum whose time had come and politicians had to yield to.
It is utterly tragic yet also ridiculous that we are apparently facing the dissolution and Partition of our magnificent, storied, proud, spectacular 300 year old nation because of... The bedroom tax.
It was once said the British acquired their empire in a fit of absent-mindedness. We are about to lose Britain itself the same way.
And it's not like the Scots even wanted this. They wanted Devomax. Cameron refused. Because he is a flailing idiot.
For that reason alone he must resign post-YES. But he will resign anyway. The psychic pressure, inner and outer, would be intolerable. The passionate unionist and old Etonian who broke up the Union? He will be publicly disgraced and diminished. Weak men would consider suicide. Imagine him at the next G8 meeting, having just lost a third of his country. Intolerable humiliation.
He will resign.
Sean sometimes you do write utter crap. There is one person and one person alone responsible if we Scots vote YES in 12 days time. That person is Tony Blair. The day he created the Scottish Parliament was the day he subjected the UK to the inevitable break-up.
He even failed to create a "fixed" electoral system to prevent the SNP taking power. The hybrid system we have for Holyrood was said by the experts to be impossible for one party to win, even Scottish Labour. Well as we know, Scottish Labour didn't win but the SNP did and the rest will be history.
ty bang, either in 12 days time or in a few years time. Scotland is no Quebec.
As ever, I'm right and you're wrong. I've basically been right about every aspect of indyref from the off.
Blair is if course to blame, but so is Cameron. He took a huge gamble. And if he loses?
I remember you predicting great gains for the Scots Tories in 2010. Oh dear. Your political and economic judgement is weak. I am praying that indyref is not the one inevitable occasion where, by statistical chance, you call it right.
I remember you saying it would be a huge victory for the unionists , but realising you had made a twunt of yourself as usual you then start back peddling and now depending what day it is you have no idea what your position is. You now change daily so you can claim to be right, dear dear and you try to Mock Easterross.
It is utterly tragic yet also ridiculous that we are apparently facing the dissolution and Partition of our magnificent, storied, proud, spectacular 300 year old nation because of... The bedroom tax.
It was once said the British acquired their empire in a fit of absent-mindedness. We are about to lose Britain itself the same way.
And it's not like the Scots even wanted this. They wanted Devomax. Cameron refused. Because he is a flailing idiot.
For that reason alone he must resign post-YES. But he will resign anyway. The psychic pressure, inner and outer, would be intolerable. The passionate unionist and old Etonian who broke up the Union? He will be publicly disgraced and diminished. Weak men would consider suicide. Imagine him at the next G8 meeting, having just lost a third of his country. Intolerable humiliation.
He will resign.
Sean sometimes you do write utter crap. There is one person and one person alone responsible if we Scots vote YES in 12 days time. That person is Tony Blair. The day he created the Scottish Parliament was the day he subjected the UK to the inevitable break-up.
He even failed to create a "fixed" electoral system to prevent the SNP taking power. The hybrid system we have for Holyrood was said by the experts to be impossible for one party to win, even Scottish Labour. Well as we know, Scottish Labour didn't win but the SNP did and the rest will be history.
David Cameron should not resign. DevoMax would not have been a solution. Like the 1998 Scottish Parliament proposal, it would only have been a half-way house to full independence. The only party with a sensible policy which might have saved the UK in the long run was the Liberals (not LibDems) and their long held Federal system within the UK.
Even if Scotland votes NO in 12 days time, it will be a very narrow win and we Scots will be back voting again in 5 years in a 2nd referendum.
Like a runaway train which has been shunted on to the Tony Blair siding, there is no other conclusion than hitting the buffers with a mighty bang, either in 12 days time or in a few years time. Scotland is no Quebec.
As ever, I'm right and you're wrong. I've basically been right about every aspect of indyref from the off.
Blair is if course to blame, but so is Cameron. He took a huge gamble. And if he loses?.
Weren't you fanboy deluxe just a few weeks ago suggesting Darling would recieve the thanks and honours of a grateful nation?
No one is responsible for the end/continuation of the union other than the people of Scotland who vote for it. It was a referendum whose time had come and politicians had to yield to.
That's why he's been right about every aspect... he's taken every conceivable position in the last few weeks
Don't for a second think that Scotland would become an economic basket case. We would have 2 or 3 very difficult years while the independence settlement is determined. However we Scots are first and foremost Scots and once the result is known, if YES wins, there will be a great many of us who have too much invested in Scotland to cut and run or bury our heads in the sand.
The people who are in for a shock are the sad, deluded lefties who thought they were voting for a socialist utopia. Scotland is the country of Adam Smith and Robert the Bruce, of James Watt, Alexander Graham Bell, John Boyd Dunlop and many many more. We will simply re-invent ourselves as we have done so often.
I would expect some Edinburgh financial institutions to move south to London and then return when the economy settles.
I also doubt we will see the nuclear subs leave the Clyde. It is the policy of the Scottish Greens, both of them and the Nippy Sweetie wing of the SNP. It is not the policy of SLAB, SLD or the Scottish Tories. Post independence I very much doubt the hard left would be able to muster sufficient support to get Trident removal on to the statute book, especially since keeping it will be the quid pro quo for substantial inward investment from rUK and the USA.
As usual, an interesting analysis from you, though I beg to differ in detail on Trident. I rather fear you are forgetting that there will be no such thing as unionist parties wanting to have the EWNI nukes on Scottish soil. There will be no unionist parties full stop. SLAB, insofar as it survives, will be 100% instead of 10% Scottish; ditto for the Tories and LDs. That will change their perspectives: how much remains to be seen, but SLAB for one would undoubtedly return to their anti-Faslane policies.
I would also be very surprised if the US were to link it to inward investment, given US views on keeping Trident instead of properly funding conventional forces.
I am keeping this year's ISA allowance for investment in Scotland after a Yes vote. I won't be the only one.
Is iScotland's finance ministry going to continue with ISA's? Or is it going to want to tax every asset?
pretty juvenile comment
A very relevant question for any ISA holder. ISA's are an invention of the UK treasury. No iScottish treasury would be obliged to continue them. That is what independence means.
I am keeping this year's ISA allowance for investment in Scotland after a Yes vote. I won't be the only one.
Is iScotland's finance ministry going to continue with ISA's? Or is it going to want to tax every asset?
Depends where Mr O'Groats lives. If he lives in EWNI he can still benefit from Scots companies in an ISA. I have some money in a L&G Pacific Something or Other.
An SNP landslide at the 2015 GE increases the chance of a hung parliament where the SNP hold the balance of power.It would be a constitutional farce if the soon to be independent Scots could decided the way forward for an England ,Wales and NI Even if its a "no" vote,with Max devo the English will be unable to vote on an even wider range of Scottish matters,whilst the Scots retain the ability to vote on English matters. To avoid either of the above its time to sort out before the 2015 GE the West Lothian question and have English votes only on English matters.
And Welsh votes on Welsh matters?
Yes- the logical constitutional after Max Devo for Scotland is Max Devo for England Wales and NI with their own Parliaments voting on domestic matters. A small elected British second would cover defense foreign affairs and majot transport infrastucture. The 800+ anachronism of the House of Lords would be redundant and abolished.
About time too.English republicans can only rejoice.
I am keeping this year's ISA allowance for investment in Scotland after a Yes vote. I won't be the only one.
Is iScotland's finance ministry going to continue with ISA's? Or is it going to want to tax every asset?
pretty juvenile comment
A very relevant question for any ISA holder. ISA's are an invention of the UK treasury. No iScottish treasury would be obliged to continue them. That is what independence means.
Yes but to assume they will tax everything and destroy the country is pretty juvenile. An intelligent adult would be more likely to presume that being next to a big neighbour as a new country , rather than destroy jobs they would be looking to grow the country and so would compete against their bigger neighbour with more tax incentives all round. They are not stupid , they may care about people unlike the Tories but for sure will be looking to grow Scotland not destroy it.
It is utterly tragic yet also ridiculous that we are apparently facing the dissolution and Partition of our magnificent, storied, proud, spectacular 300 year old nation because of... The bedroom tax.
It was once said the British acquired their empire in a fit of absent-mindedness. We are about to lose Britain itself the same way.
And it's not like the Scots even wanted this. They wanted Devomax. Cameron refused. Because he is a flailing idiot.
For that reason alone he must resign post-YES. But he will resign anyway. The psychic pressure, inner and outer, would be intolerable. The passionate unionist and old Etonian who broke up the Union? He will be publicly disgraced and diminished. Weak men would consider suicide. Imagine him at the next G8 meeting, having just lost a third of his country. Intolerable humiliation.
He will resign.
Sean sometimes you do write utter crap. There is one person and one person alone responsible if we Scots vote YES in 12 days time. That person is Tony Blair. The day he created the Scottish Parliament was the day he subjected the UK to the inevitable break-up.
He even failed to create a "fixed" electoral system to prevent the SNP taking power. The hybrid system we have for Holyrood was said by the experts to be impossible for one party to win, even Scottish Labour. Well as we know, Scottish Labour didn't win but the SNP did and the rest will be history.
David Cameron should not resign. DevoMax would not have been a solution. Like the 1998 Scottish Parliament proposal, it would only have been a half-way house to full independence. The only party with a sensible policy which might have saved the UK in the long run was the Liberals (not LibDems) and their long held Federal system within the UK.
As ever, I'm right and you're wrong. I've basically been right about every aspect of indyref from the off.
Blair is if course to blame, but so is Cameron. He took a huge gamble. And if he loses?.
Weren't you fanboy deluxe just a few weeks ago suggesting Darling would recieve the thanks and honours of a grateful nation?
No one is responsible for the end/continuation of the union other than the people of Scotland who vote for it. It was a referendum whose time had come and politicians had to yield to.
That's why he's been right about every aspect... he's taken every conceivable position in the last few weeks
I see Mr CHINA STRONG!!! is arguing that Cammers fecked-up by refusing to give the Jocks DevoMax. Obviously he is not too bright when it comes to democracy and the-will-of-the-people....
Scotland could vote for devolution as it was in respect with their governance. Dave-C [not the aircraft that we should have bought] allowed Scots to choose independence because it reflects their democratic ambitions. To allow Scots to define what DevoMax is and how to apply it would be like a Peronist nationalising pensions and a Boer disenfranchising 90% of the population.
Enter Wee Fr'Eck; stage left
But Mr C could have exerted leadership and suggested the obvious game plan which could have been
1. Scots say "we've decided we'd like Devomax please, but if you genuinely don't feel able to agree, it we'd like indy." 2. Over to the rest of the UK ...
Last year Coatbridge (next to where I work) had a council by election where Labour got over 90% of the vote (Note in Scotland, council seats have big electorates). All the by-elections since 2011 have shown a swing away from the SNP. Would a Yes vote change this? The answer is no-one knows.
There is just as much chance that the SNP has a massive backlash as there is it goes forward. The biggest problem that the SNP face is that the people who are most against the SNP are the old and the wealthy. The SNP does not have the support of the business community who ultimately pay the bills or the old who are the core voters at any election. Can a country be built on the male NED vote?
If there is a YES vote then where I do agree with David is to go for outside votes. Try UKIP winning the next general election. Try SNP get less seats than the Tories at the next Scottish election. There is a good chance that the chaos will create more grey swans as Martin Sorrell suggested.
It is utterly tragic yet also ridiculous that we are apparently facing the dissolution and Partition of our magnificent, storied, proud, spectacular 300 year old nation because of... The bedroom tax.
It was once said the British acquired their empire in a fit of absent-mindedness. We are about to lose Britain itself the same way.
And it's not like the Scots even wanted this. They wanted Devomax. Cameron refused. Because he is a flailing idiot.
For that reason alone he must resign post-YES. But he will resign anyway. The psychic pressure, inner and outer, would be intolerable. The passionate unionist and old Etonian who broke up the Union? He will be publicly disgraced and diminished. Weak men would consider suicide. Imagine him at the next G8 meeting, having just lost a third of his country. Intolerable humiliation.
He will resign.
Like a runaway train which has been shunted on to the Tony Blair siding, there is no other conclusion than hitting the buffers with a mighty bang, either in 12 days time or in a few years time. Scotland is no Quebec.
As ever, I'm right and you're wrong. I've basically been right about every aspect of indyref from the off.
Blair is if course to blame, but so is Cameron. He took a huge gamble. And if he loses?.
Weren't you fanboy deluxe just a few weeks ago suggesting Darling would recieve the thanks and honours of a grateful nation?
No one is responsible for the end/continuation of the union other than the people of Scotland who vote for it. It was a referendum whose time had come and politicians had to yield to.
That was before Darling made the stupid, stupid decision to agree to a second debate. Which I specifically warned him about on here. A monumental blunder.
Of course I make mad lunatic bipolar swings every day, that's who I am. But my basic instincts have been proved right time and again. The referendum was a stupid risk. Cameron should have offered indyref. Labour were being absurdly complacent (I warned about this a year ago), left self loathing could lose the union due to lack of positivity.
I know my rightness comes across as appalling smugness but I can't help that. Besides, I don't feel smug. I feel sadness that my country is about to be divided.
Anyway what we need to do is think how we can save the union at the last minute. There are still options. I'm gonna write about them in the Telegraph next week.
Give Cochrane a few hankies next time you are in , he is bubbling like a big baby. If that is the caliber of Telegraph they must be desperate or it is easy to be a journalist.
Less than 10 minutes to the start of P3, over on BBC2.
I'll try and get up a pre-qualifying piece promptly. No idea whether tips will be offered. Incidentally, Ladbrokes have slightly changed navigation for bets. Not sure why they went to the trouble of making it a bit more difficult, but there we are.
Last year Coatbridge (next to where I work) had a council by election where Labour got over 90% of the vote (Note in Scotland, council seats have big electorates). All the by-elections since 2011 have shown a swing away from the SNP. Would a Yes vote change this? The answer is no-one knows.
There is just as much chance that the SNP has a massive backlash as there is it goes forward. The biggest problem that the SNP face is that the people who are most against the SNP are the old and the wealthy. The SNP does not have the support of the business community who ultimately pay the bills or the old who are the core voters at any election. Can a country be built on the male NED vote?
If there is a YES vote then where I do agree with David is to go for outside votes. Try UKIP winning the next general election. Try SNP get less seats than the Tories at the next Scottish election. There is a good chance that the chaos will create more grey swans as Martin Sorrell suggested.
There is the view of a labour man stuck in the year 1690. Losers looking back as the population disappear into the future, dodo's waiting for extinction believing their own sad rhetoric and wondering how they could have lost when they got 90% of the vote. Perfectly describes the BT campaign.
This is so so boring. They won't vote Yes, but even if they did I don't care. No-one does. It's Scotland. The country will still be there for tourists. No-one cares.
You seem to be confusing politicalbetting with Facebook.
Haha! (Actually you might not approve of emoticons?)
This independence vote has traction for political betting, I grant you. Otherwise for anyone south of the border it's boring as hell.
But Mr C could have exerted leadership and suggested the obvious game plan which could have been
1. Scots say "we've decided we'd like Devomax please, but if you genuinely don't feel able to agree, it we'd like indy." 2. Over to the rest of the UK ...
That would have been fair enough all round, no?
Hmmm,
#1: Give me your bloody money, else... #2: Pulls trigger!.
No minority should hold England to such a ransom...!
Last year Coatbridge (next to where I work) had a council by election where Labour got over 90% of the vote (Note in Scotland, council seats have big electorates). All the by-elections since 2011 have shown a swing away from the SNP. Would a Yes vote change this? The answer is no-one knows.
There is just as much chance that the SNP has a massive backlash as there is it goes forward. The biggest problem that the SNP face is that the people who are most against the SNP are the old and the wealthy. The SNP does not have the support of the business community who ultimately pay the bills or the old who are the core voters at any election. Can a country be built on the male NED vote?
If there is a YES vote then where I do agree with David is to go for outside votes. Try UKIP winning the next general election. Try SNP get less seats than the Tories at the next Scottish election. There is a good chance that the chaos will create more grey swans as Martin Sorrell suggested.
Coincidentally there is a section on the Irish-scots vote in today's Herald and a specific mention of Coatbridge. General impression I get from this and related items today is that Labour hegemony is not what it was.
Interesting comments, and a useful warning to keep the heid flexible. Obviously an election is not the same as a referendum and the more it goes on the more I'm convinced that indyref is transcending party politics and is not necessarily a good guide to the future. But I can see quite independently of this that SLAB IS being damaged by indyref in a way that the SNP and Tories are not. And you are coming very close to saying that the SNP is effectively a middle and working class party - with obvious implications for the SLAB vote.
I am keeping this year's ISA allowance for investment in Scotland after a Yes vote. I won't be the only one.
Depends where Mr O'Groats lives. If he lives in EWNI he can still benefit from Scots companies in an ISA. I have some money in a L&G Pacific Something or Other.
Whatever the result, it will be interesting to see how the Scots eventually react when they finally realise that Salmond and his acolytes have been systematically lying to them all this time.
But Mr C could have exerted leadership and suggested the obvious game plan which could have been
1. Scots say "we've decided we'd like Devomax please, but if you genuinely don't feel able to agree, it we'd like indy." 2. Over to the rest of the UK ...
That would have been fair enough all round, no?
Hmmm,
#1: Give me your bloody money, else... #2: Pulls trigger!.
No minority should hold England to such a ransom...!
"Give us our money back please" might be nearer the facts. But it is an interesting point - could even the most polite request ever have been acceptable to the Tory backbenchers or HMG without being seen in the way you so pithily put it? If so, then the Union was kaput the moment the opinion poll ratings for devomax came in.
Interesting post from David. I would be intrigued to know people's views on what a Scotland 'Yes' means for the likelihood of a rUK 'No' in an EU referendum, assuming of course that Cameron was able to get that through in government.
I still think the vote will be 'No' on the 18th and the margin of victory will be slightly larger than people assume. I base this on a view that referendums ordinarily result in a status quo decision, that there is a silent 'No' majority who may not have the vocal nature of many 'Yes' supporters, but nevertheless can completely reconcile being Scottish and British.
Interesting post from David. I would be intrigued to know people's views on what a Scotland 'Yes' means for the likelihood of a rUK 'No' in an EU referendum, assuming of course that Cameron was able to get that through in government.
I still think the vote will be 'No' on the 18th and the margin of victory will be slightly larger than people assume. I base this on a view that referendums ordinarily result in a status quo decision, that there is a silent 'No' majority who may not have the vocal nature of many 'Yes' supporters, but nevertheless can completely reconcile being Scottish and British.
General consensus seems to be that there is a (small but distinct) majority in favour of the EU in Scotland - remoal of which from EWNI would undoubtedly help Brexit or rather EWNIexit. I have to go shopping in a wee bittie but a good place to start checking the sources would be the Wee Blue Book (which tends to use unionist sources where possible) on wingsoverscotland.com.
"Give us our money back please" might be nearer the facts. But it is an interesting point - could even the most polite request ever have been acceptable to the Tory backbenchers or HMG without being seen in the way you so pithily put it? If so, then the Union was kaput the moment the opinion poll ratings for devomax came in.
Info-Oops:
You are a Richard. Without googling the link (which I have posted on here many-a-time) Scotland was fiscally neutral from 1980 thro' 2010. [Based upon the economic model designed by the EIU and perverted by the Scotched Parish Council.] Before that little differed between the Scots and the Ulster-Scots (a useful comparison).
Democracy is more than money: It is about choice. Your nation feels it should dictate that 8% of the population should define the UK governance or else. The nation I call home calls folks like you [MODERATED]!
Interesting article on Sturgeon and whither Scottish politics:
Ultimately, the advisor Adam Tomkins believes, Sturgeon could change the face of politics after the referendum. "There are two divisions in Scottish politics: unionist/nationalist and left/right, which don't run in parallel at the moment. She will pull the political centre of gravity of the SNP to the centre left, and the geographical centre away from Aberdeen and Perth, to Glasgow. This will make life very difficult indeed for the Scottish Labour party. If she is successful as leader for some time then those two big divisions will begin to overlap, and the centre right will emerge as the main force for the union."
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
Come on. “Crises” are events which come on quickly. The Abdication was one such; no-one realised until Geoge V died that the Prince of Wales was serious about Mrs Simpson. Scots independence has been simmering away in plain view for years. I know the Government claims that no plans have been made for the possibility but I don’t believe senior civil servants would be so irresponsible as to take such an instructions seriously.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
A chain of revolutionary processes could ensue which could lead to the end of the monarchy.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
Come on. “Crises” are events which come on quickly. The Abdication was one such; no-one realised until Geoge V died that the Prince of Wales was serious about Mrs Simpson. Scots independence has been simmering away in plain view for years. I know the Government claims that no plans have been made for the possibility but I don’t believe senior civil servants would be so irresponsible as to take such an instructions seriously.
You have a generous view of the Civil Service which may not be entirely justified. From the information that reaches me from old colleagues, I am fairly convinced that in at least two of the great departments of state no serious work has been done on planning for a the aftermath of a yes vote. There may well have been some informal discussions between officials but no more than that.
"Labour showed yesterday where it's priorities lie and they are not in keeping Scotland within the UK. The vote over the spare-room subsidy is not a PR disaster for the SNP."
When I was up in Aberdeen a few weeks ago I went to a fete in Banff and Buchan where there were several tents and stalls representing the 'YES' an 'NO' campaigns.
I tried to speak to as many of these campaigners as possible and by a country mile the single most mentioned policy by the YES campaign was the bedroom tax.
I fear if this vote is lost it'll be because SNP unlike their opponents know what gets the Scots motivated.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
Come on. “Crises” are events which come on quickly. The Abdication was one such; no-one realised until Geoge V died that the Prince of Wales was serious about Mrs Simpson. Scots independence has been simmering away in plain view for years. I know the Government claims that no plans have been made for the possibility but I don’t believe senior civil servants would be so irresponsible as to take such an instructions seriously.
You have a generous view of the Civil Service which may not be entirely justified. From the information that reaches me from old colleagues, I am fairly convinced that in at least two of the great departments of state no serious work has been done on planning for a the aftermath of a yes vote. There may well have been some informal discussions between officials but no more than that.
there would be a major financial panic as everyone with more than a couple of groats opened an English bank account and savings drained out of Scotland.
What proportion of Scottish savings are already held with English banks? The vast majority of building society branches in Scotland belong to English building societies.
"Labour showed yesterday where it's priorities lie and they are not in keeping Scotland within the UK. The vote over the spare-room subsidy is not a PR disaster for the SNP."
When I was up in Aberdeen a few weeks ago I went to a fete in Banff and Buchan where there were several tents and stalls representing the 'YES' an 'NO' campaigns.
I tried to speak to as many of these campaigners as possible and by a country mile the single most mentioned policy by the YES campaign was the bedroom tax.
I fear if this vote is lost it'll be because SNP unlike their opponents know what gets the Scots motivated.
I think, and this purely a personal view, that it’s the perceived cruelty of the tax in some cases rather than the tax itself which is the problem.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
This may be how things would look in the short term, but it is the biggest fallacy of the whole debate. iScotland would have to move sharply right in order to compete in the modern world. The statism and welfarism that currently define it would have to become things of the past.
A large majority for Devomax would have been used by Salmond as a springboard for independence, it would not have killed it but boosted it. Yes or No it needs to be decided one way or the other, if a No Devomax can follow
"Labour showed yesterday where it's priorities lie and they are not in keeping Scotland within the UK. The vote over the spare-room subsidy is not a PR disaster for the SNP."
When I was up in Aberdeen a few weeks ago I went to a fete in Banff and Buchan where there were several tents and stalls representing the 'YES' an 'NO' campaigns.
I tried to speak to as many of these campaigners as possible and by a country mile the single most mentioned policy by the YES campaign was the bedroom tax.
I fear if this vote is lost it'll be because SNP unlike their opponents know what gets the Scots motivated.
Of course, the reverse also holds: if this vote is won [by No] it'll be because SNP unlike their opponents don't know what gets the Scots motivated
"I think, and this purely a personal view, that it’s the perceived cruelty of the tax in some cases rather than the tax itself which is the problem."
Of course and it has now been so well honed it was used by Salmond in the second debate with devastating effect "When times are hard, we don't take it out on people with disabilities"
Infact if the result is YES and close it wouldn't be unreasonable to give the credit/blame to IDS
I am keeping this year's ISA allowance for investment in Scotland after a Yes vote. I won't be the only one.
Is iScotland's finance ministry going to continue with ISA's? Or is it going to want to tax every asset?
pretty juvenile comment
A very relevant question for any ISA holder. ISA's are an invention of the UK treasury. No iScottish treasury would be obliged to continue them. That is what independence means.
They would honour & continue ISAs. Or create a very similiar investment product.
For the first time Le Pen is ahead in the second round. She beats Holland 54-46. She still loses to any UMP candidate in the second round but with a much reduced margin than past opinion polls. So far there are 2 candidates from the UMP and with Sarkozy looming.
With 2.5 years to go and France not getting any better, plus with the UMP divided, Le Pen might get the presidency.
David, it is absolutely uncanny how accurately your January article has played out so far! That being said, January 2015 probably now will not be the date of UKIP's first by-election victory.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
Come on. “Crises” are events which come on quickly. The Abdication was one such; no-one realised until Geoge V died that the Prince of Wales was serious about Mrs Simpson. Scots independence has been simmering away in plain view for years. I know the Government claims that no plans have been made for the possibility but I don’t believe senior civil servants would be so irresponsible as to take such an instructions seriously.
You have a generous view of the Civil Service which may not be entirely justified. From the information that reaches me from old colleagues, I am fairly convinced that in at least two of the great departments of state no serious work has been done on planning for a the aftermath of a yes vote. There may well have been some informal discussions between officials but no more than that.
Sadly believable if true.
Motor insurance is obligatory, and the chances of having a serious accident in a year must be a fair bit lower than 1 in 7.
Some contingency planning for a 1 in 7 dramatic known event surely should have taken place. The fact it doesn't appear to have done so speaks volumes.
I am keeping this year's ISA allowance for investment in Scotland after a Yes vote. I won't be the only one.
Is iScotland's finance ministry going to continue with ISA's? Or is it going to want to tax every asset?
pretty juvenile comment
A very relevant question for any ISA holder. ISA's are an invention of the UK treasury. No iScottish treasury would be obliged to continue them. That is what independence means.
They would honour & continue ISAs. Or create a very similiar investment product.
It would depend very much on whether iScotland needed to increase taxes so as to fund the "cuts" in the NHS, reverse the "bedroom tax" and other aspects of left wing policy.
On a more positive note in the autumnal East Midlands, prospects for a bumper blackberry and apple crumble are excellent!
Iain Dale hasn't been a Tory commentator since he got turned over by the LibDems in Norfolk. He is someone who professes to be a Tory but criticises the party almost every time he puts pen to paper.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
This may be how things would look in the short term, but it is the biggest fallacy of the whole debate. iScotland would have to move sharply right in order to compete in the modern world. The statism and welfarism that currently define it would have to become things of the past.
People said the same about Greece joining the Euro: that the discipline of the single currency would mean it would have to tackle its structural failures. The logic of the argument was correct and indeed, Greece has had to get to grips with the reasons for its near-bankruptcy - but only after it was literally forced to do so, and only after they'd spent the first years after joining blowing money at an even faster rate.
There's no reason why Scotland wouldn't be similar, particularly with the oil income: lots of nice money just waiting to be spent on 'socially just' programmes, disguising the deeper problems with competitivity.
there would be a major financial panic as everyone with more than a couple of groats opened an English bank account and savings drained out of Scotland.
What proportion of Scottish savings are already held with English banks? The vast majority of building society branches in Scotland belong to English building societies.
All sorts of capital flows are possible. If I had savings (including pension funds) with Scottish based institutions I'd certainly be moving them. The whole banking situation becomes very odd with no central bank worth its name.
Speedy I think polls showed Valls doing better than Hollande v Le Pen, so he could end up the socialist candidate of that bad, but clearly momentum all Le Pen, and right will be split with Fillon running as an independent v Sarkozy. It seems nationalism is rising across Europe
Iain Dale hasn't been a Tory commentator since he got turned over by the LibDems in Norfolk. He is someone who professes to be a Tory but criticises the party almost every time he puts pen to paper.
He is the Tory Dan Hodges?
Why not make them fight. Ian Dale vs Dan Hodges on whether their own party is crappier than the other.
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
Come on. “Crises” are events which come on quickly. The Abdication was one such; no-one realised until Geoge V died that the Prince of Wales was serious about Mrs Simpson. Scots independence has been simmering away in plain view for years. I know the Government claims that no plans have been made for the possibility but I don’t believe senior civil servants would be so irresponsible as to take such an instructions seriously.
You have a generous view of the Civil Service which may not be entirely justified. From the information that reaches me from old colleagues, I am fairly convinced that in at least two of the great departments of state no serious work has been done on planning for a the aftermath of a yes vote. There may well have been some informal discussions between officials but no more than that.
Sadly believable if true.
Motor insurance is obligatory, and the chances of having a serious accident in a year must be a fair bit lower than 1 in 7.
Some contingency planning for a 1 in 7 dramatic known event surely should have taken place. The fact it doesn't appear to have done so speaks volumes.
Wasn’t there something said by someone important in Government that they didn’t believe there’d be a Yes vote, so there was no point in spending time drawing up contingency plans?
The international aspect of the vote -- if it is Yes -- is interesting.
How will Quebec feel when across the Atlantic, they see Scotland break away at the first go?
A new Quebec referendum, and the breaking up of Canada, looks overwhelmingly likely (with fateful consequences for the Scots of Nova Scotia).
And surely Spain and Belgium will not survive intact, They have less history together, and more fragility, than the UK.
The repercussions of a Yes vote will be truly momentous, & not just for foxinsox's ISA.
At the last Quebec referendum (when I was in Quebec), I think most federalists had given up and thought Canada was over. All the polls just before the referendum predicted Oui.
In light of the very small Non majority, it is very surprising that 20 years have elapsed without another go.
There is enormous inertia in all political systems. That saved Canada in 1995, and I suspect it will save the UK twenty years later.
So my feel is YES, (50 - epsilon) %, NO, (50 + epsilon), with epsilon >0.
That is actually what is best for Scotland in the short term, because it maximises negotiating power for change in the aftermath, but avoids the chaos of independence.
Whether it is best for Scotland in the long term is another matter.
Iain Dale hasn't been a Tory commentator since he got turned over by the LibDems in Norfolk. He is someone who professes to be a Tory but criticises the party almost every time he puts pen to paper.
quite:
Goldman Sachs are warning that the pound may go into freefall
"May face pressure" (or some such) is not quite the same as "go into free fall".....
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
Come on. “Crises” are events which come on quickly. The Abdication was one such; no-one realised until Geoge V died that the Prince of Wales was serious about Mrs Simpson. Scots independence has been simmering away in plain view for years. I know the Government claims that no plans have been made for the possibility but I don’t believe senior civil servants would be so irresponsible as to take such an instructions seriously.
You have a generous view of the Civil Service which may not be entirely justified. From the information that reaches me from old colleagues, I am fairly convinced that in at least two of the great departments of state no serious work has been done on planning for a the aftermath of a yes vote. There may well have been some informal discussions between officials but no more than that.
Sadly believable if true.
Motor insurance is obligatory, and the chances of having a serious accident in a year must be a fair bit lower than 1 in 7.
Some contingency planning for a 1 in 7 dramatic known event surely should have taken place. The fact it doesn't appear to have done so speaks volumes.
Wasn’t there something said by someone important in Government that they didn’t believe there’d be a Yes vote, so there was no point in spending time drawing up contingency plans?
The most horrible thing about a YES vote is that Scotland would be well on the way to becoming a dire socialist state that will suck the life out of the land. There will a mass exodus of buisiness' and firms and people, to England and Wales.
Come on. “Crises” are events which come on quickly. The Abdication was one such; no-one realised until Geoge V died that the Prince of Wales was serious about Mrs Simpson. Scots independence has been simmering away in plain view for years. I know the Government claims that no plans have been made for the possibility but I don’t believe senior civil servants would be so irresponsible as to take such an instructions seriously.
You have a generous view of the Civil Service which may not be entirely justified. From the information that reaches me from old colleagues, I am fairly convinced that in at least two of the great departments of state no serious work has been done on planning for a the aftermath of a yes vote. There may well have been some informal discussions between officials but no more than that.
Sadly believable if true.
Motor insurance is obligatory, and the chances of having a serious accident in a year must be a fair bit lower than 1 in 7.
Some contingency planning for a 1 in 7 dramatic known event surely should have taken place. The fact it doesn't appear to have done so speaks volumes.
Wasn’t there something said by someone important in Government that they didn’t believe there’d be a Yes vote, so there was no point in spending time drawing up contingency plans?
YBardd Venice also recently had a referendum on independence from Italy which was won but unrecognised, it too could get independence. Spain as you say would face independence from both the Basque regions and Catalonia, France would face growing moves from Corsica for independence, as well as Quebec likely breaking away from Canada, even Texas may start to increase pressure to return to being an independent Republic, especially if it gets a third successive Democratic President it did not vote for in 2016. In South Africa moves for an independent Afrikaaner and Zulu state would grow, Putin would have a mandate to split up former Soviet republics as he wished, even states in India and China could start to get restless In Australia, Western Australia actually had a referendum on independence early last century which was passed but unrecognised. Nowhere would be immune once the momentum starts, and I think the EU could also collapse, especially if Le Pen wins in France
A questioner asked about postal charges between Scotland and England in the event of independence. As usual, the Nat response was that life would go on as before. I asked if he knew what it costs to post a letter from the UK to the Republic of Ireland, even just a few hundred yards between north and south.
He didn’t, which seemed as careless as not knowing the price of a pint of milk. The answer is that, because Ireland is treated by Royal Mail as an international destination (as Scotland would become), the cost of postage is between twice and four times greater than the cost of a first-class stamp, for delivery within five days.
Consider the plea of a local politician in County Tyrone who paid £2.38 for a stamp that would have cost, at most, 62p if the letter had stayed within the UK. “It’s crazy,” she complained. “It is very expensive and nobody can understand it”. To which one might reasonably have replied: “It’s the border, stupid”.
Iain Dale hasn't been a Tory commentator since he got turned over by the LibDems in Norfolk. He is someone who professes to be a Tory but criticises the party almost every time he puts pen to paper.
He is the Tory Dan Hodges?
Why not make them fight. Ian Dale vs Dan Hodges on whether their own party is crappier than the other.
Lots of people would pay real money to see that. DC and Ed could act as corner men, Dave for Dan and Ed for Dale.
In answer to Sean T, I believe my mea culpa on GE2010 appeared on 21st May 2010 but I have no idea how to look it up or post the link. When I clicked on the May 2010 archives on the right, I just got the masthead but none of the threads opened.
I am no Cameron fan (less still of Blair), but the idea that Cameron (or Blair) are responsible is nonsense.
If Scotland does vote Yes, I'd have thought the single most guilty party is -- the Scottish Labour party.
With a very few honourable exceptions (Donald Dewar, Sam Galbraith), few Labour Scottish politicians took Holyrood seriously.
Competent Labour MSPs (like Cathy Jamieson) just look on the job as a stepping stone to promotion to Westminster and leave.
It is not at all surprising that Alex Salmond walloped Iain Gray at the last Holyrood elections.
In an arena other than politics, the fight would have been stopped before it had started --because of the danger of irreversible medical damage following what was always going to be a very serious beating.
There are highly competent Scottish Labour politicians, none of them are in Holyrood.
It is a harsh thing to say, but the standard of Labour MSPs is even lower than the standard of Welsh Labour AMs.
I disagree on both grounds: I don’t think Cameron would see a campaign he’s rarely been actively involved in as a personal failure and his party would take a similar view.
I see a pattern here
It wasn't the Cameroons fault that they didn't win the 2010 election decisively (despite being 20 points ahead a year before the election, it was the electoral imbalance and the Cleggasm (and UKIP))
It is not their fault that they cannot implement the domestic policy they want, its the Libdems fault (despite inviting the Libdems to form a coalition).
It's not their fault that this government has become pretty much a lame duck a year out its the Libdem's fault (despite the same invitation).
It wasn't their fault that the cannot implement certain national policies (such as immigration control etc) that's the EU's fault. (Despite the Tories adherence to pro-eu policies and their commitment to slash net immigration).
It wasn't their fault about Syria. It was Parliament's fault.(despite yada yada yada.....)
It wasn't their (the EU's) fault about the division of Ukraine. its Putin's fault.(despite yada yada yada)
Its not their fault that the centre right has become split. It's UKIP's fault (despite yada yada yada)
It isn't their fault that they are going to lose the next election It's UKIP's fault (despite yada yada yada)
And clearly its not the Cameroons fault if the Scots vote 'Yes'. Presumably it will be Labour's fault (despite English Toryism being toxic in Scotland....)
I assume the Tories will be going into the General Election Campaign under the banner 'It's not our fault (It's UKIP's)' .
If Cameron cannot take responsibility for the loss of the Union when it happened on his watch and for what ever reason did virtually nothing about it (because 60 years of decline and incompetence has made the English brand of Toryism toxic in Scotland) then he is not fit to remain in power. The idea that the sitting Prime Minister did not lead a campaign to keep the nation whole is outrageous in itself. That he presided over losing it would be utter humiliation and only the most ridiculous self serving self absorbed fool would hope to remain in the role afterwards.
The best the Tories can do is argue that there is no time to replace him being 8 months out from an election because the idea that any British Prime Minister who loses one third of the landmass of the Union to independence and slope shoulders and pretend he or she is not accountable and get away with it is risible!
Fox Those were different cases, the break up of political systems and superpowers after revolutions and civil wars. This would be the peaceful break up of a nation after a referendum, the momentum given to separatist movements and parties everywhere would be huge
A questioner asked about postal charges between Scotland and England in the event of independence. As usual, the Nat response was that life would go on as before. I asked if he knew what it costs to post a letter from the UK to the Republic of Ireland, even just a few hundred yards between north and south.
He didn’t, which seemed as careless as not knowing the price of a pint of milk. The answer is that, because Ireland is treated by Royal Mail as an international destination (as Scotland would become), the cost of postage is between twice and four times greater than the cost of a first-class stamp, for delivery within five days.
Consider the plea of a local politician in County Tyrone who paid £2.38 for a stamp that would have cost, at most, 62p if the letter had stayed within the UK. “It’s crazy,” she complained. “It is very expensive and nobody can understand it”. To which one might reasonably have replied: “It’s the border, stupid”.
It does seem as if the SNP's vision of iScotland is really devomax: Currency and Postal Union, keep the monarchy, Bank of England as central bank, stay in the EU automatically, stay in NATO, EVFL etc etc.
Ed Miliband did himself no favours yesterday with his attempt to use some words of Ruth Davidson as a stick with which he could beat David Cameron.
The Tory leader who, as even her political opponents in Scotland concede, was "taking one for the team" when she let slip that according to the current polls a Cameron victory in next year's general election was not "likely". But like a drowning man clutching at a straw, Mr Miliband engineered a stupid story that he believed would aid his own chances next spring.
A questioner asked about postal charges between Scotland and England in the event of independence. As usual, the Nat response was that life would go on as before. I asked if he knew what it costs to post a letter from the UK to the Republic of Ireland, even just a few hundred yards between north and south.
He didn’t, which seemed as careless as not knowing the price of a pint of milk. The answer is that, because Ireland is treated by Royal Mail as an international destination (as Scotland would become), the cost of postage is between twice and four times greater than the cost of a first-class stamp, for delivery within five days.
Consider the plea of a local politician in County Tyrone who paid £2.38 for a stamp that would have cost, at most, 62p if the letter had stayed within the UK. “It’s crazy,” she complained. “It is very expensive and nobody can understand it”. To which one might reasonably have replied: “It’s the border, stupid”.
It does seem as if the SNP's vision of iScotland is really devomax: Currency and Postal Union, keep the monarchy, Bank of England as central bank, stay in the EU automatically, stay in NATO, EVFL etc etc.
How would Devomax have been different?
Everything points to the SNP thinking they would face a DEVOMAX referendum - not an independence one.
Speedy I think polls showed Valls doing better than Hollande v Le Pen, so he could end up the socialist candidate of that bad, but clearly momentum all Le Pen, and right will be split with Fillon running as an independent v Sarkozy. It seems nationalism is rising across Europe
Interesting that Valls is a native speaker of a French minority language (not that the French believe in such things).
The international aspect of the vote -- if it is Yes -- is interesting.
How will Quebec feel when across the Atlantic, they see Scotland break away at the first go?
A new Quebec referendum, and the breaking up of Canada, looks overwhelmingly likely (with fateful consequences for the Scots of Nova Scotia).
And surely Spain and Belgium will not survive intact, They have less history together, and more fragility, than the UK.
Not sure that is true. The Crown of Aragon (including the County of Barcelona & other Catalan bits) was inherited by the kings of Castile in 1469, and Spain became a unified government in theory in 1716. Belgium, although a collection of independent fiefdoms in theory, was pretty much united as part of the Burgundian, Spanish and then Austrian Netherlands. Having said that, there are apparently now Walloon politicians raising the possibility of union with France, which until recently was anathema.
The YES campaign seem to atract all the hotheads who want to turn it into a socialist militant stronghold. Some of the behaviour of YES supporters trying to shout down Jim Murphy have looked pretty awful. IF Scotland votes for independence, some of these people would still be unhappy with a Scottish government in Edinburgh.
The international aspect of the vote -- if it is Yes -- is interesting.
How will Quebec feel when across the Atlantic, they see Scotland break away at the first go?
A new Quebec referendum, and the breaking up of Canada, looks overwhelmingly likely (with fateful consequences for the Scots of Nova Scotia).
And surely Spain and Belgium will not survive intact, They have less history together, and more fragility, than the UK.
Not sure that is true. The Crown of Aragon (including the County of Barcelona & other Catalan bits) was inherited by the kings of Castile in 1469, and Spain became a unified government in theory in 1716. Belgium, although a collection of independent fiefdoms in theory, was pretty much united as part of the Burgundian, Spanish and then Austrian Netherlands. Having said that, there are apparently now Walloon politicians raising the possibility of union with France, which until recently was anathema.
Some of them don't much like jumped up no account urban liberal academic nobodies who try to pigeon hole them as 'Poor, white, thick and old' either and would happily see said academics 'left behind' in the journalistic gutter......
A few days ago questions where raised about which Home-Nation had the oldest border. As any fule knows that answer is 'The Provence of Northern Ireland'.
In [joint] second-place were England and the Taffies: Heath's shyte local council reforms decided the fates of Berwick* and Monmouthshire.
Scotland's expansionism only ended under the Major government.** SAS forces were used to add to the wee-nation's ego (much against the grist of the Oirish) and expanded the Scots income and arrogance. Sad MFs....
Some of them don't much like jumped up no account urban liberal academic nobodies who try to pigeon hole them as 'Poor, white, thick and old' either and would happily see said academics 'left behind' in the journalistic gutter......
"Poor, white, thick and old", that is Parris's view and according to him such people's views should be ignored. Of course, Labour, the Conservatives, and the Lib Dems having been doing just that for years. If they hadn't been UKIP would probably never have arisen.
P.S. I am informed that about 200 volunteers have turned up in Clacton today to help Carswell's election attempt. None too shabby.
The YES campaign seem to atract all the hotheads who want to turn it into a socialist militant stronghold. Some of the behaviour of YES supporters trying to shout down Jim Murphy have looked pretty awful. IF Scotland votes for independence, some of these people would still be unhappy with a Scottish government in Edinburgh.
If it's a YES the then watching chippy Scottish lefties colliding with the reality of their decision will be a joy to behold. Dry economic righties like we will have a decade of popcorn to chew through as we look north.
I am no Cameron fan (less still of Blair), but the idea that Cameron (or Blair) are responsible is nonsense.
If Scotland does vote Yes, I'd have thought the single most guilty party is -- the Scottish Labour party.
With a very few honourable exceptions (Donald Dewar, Sam Galbraith), few Labour Scottish politicians took Holyrood seriously.
Competent Labour MSPs (like Cathy Jamieson) just look on the job as a stepping stone to promotion to Westminster and leave.
It is not at all surprising that Alex Salmond walloped Iain Gray at the last Holyrood elections.
In an arena other than politics, the fight would have been stopped before it had started --because of the danger of irreversible medical damage following what was always going to be a very serious beating.
There are highly competent Scottish Labour politicians, none of them are in Holyrood.
It is a harsh thing to say, but the standard of Labour MSPs is even lower than the standard of Welsh Labour AMs.
Part of this is probably because of the wipeout in the constituencies in 2011. In terms of the SLAB hierarchy, and their (presumed) order of selection of candidates for posts, it is probably fair to say that the first XI had gone to Westminster because that's the way the SLAB cursus honorum works. The second XI were on the constituency slate and the third XI on the list slates in the 2011 election, and when the second XI were [edit] in large part scratched that left a fair number of third XI to move up.
This reminds me that the Scottish MSP candidate selection for the 2016 Scottish election was reportedly brought forward, i.e. before the result of indyref becomes known. Which means that any MP in post now cannot easily insert his or her derriere into a MSP seat without at least some shoving of glutei maximi. Pour encourager les autres, n'est-ce pas?
A few days ago questions where raised about which Home-Nation had the oldest border. As any fule knows that answer is 'The Provence of Northern Ireland'.
In [joint] second-place were England and the Taffies: Heath's shyte local council reforms decided the fates of Berwick* and Monmouthshire.
Scotland's expansionism only ended under the Major government.** SAS forces were used to add to the wee-nation's ego (much against the grist of the Oirish) and expanded the Scots income and arrogance. Sad MFs....
For the first time Le Pen is ahead in the second round. She beats Holland 54-46. She still loses to any UMP candidate in the second round but with a much reduced margin than past opinion polls. So far there are 2 candidates from the UMP and with Sarkozy looming.
With 2.5 years to go and France not getting any better, plus with the UMP divided, Le Pen might get the presidency.
The point of the two-round system is that the wildly unpopular person doesn't get into the second round in the first place.
Comments
Scotland could vote for devolution as it was in respect with their governance. Dave-C [not the aircraft that we should have bought] allowed Scots to choose independence because it reflects their democratic ambitions. To allow Scots to define what DevoMax is and how to apply it would be like a Peronist nationalising pensions and a Boer disenfranchising 90% of the population.
Enter Wee Fr'Eck; stage left
No one is responsible for the end/continuation of the union other than the people of Scotland who vote for it. It was a referendum whose time had come and politicians had to yield to.
I would also be very surprised if the US were to link it to inward investment, given US views on keeping Trident instead of properly funding conventional forces.
1. Scots say "we've decided we'd like Devomax please, but if you genuinely don't feel able to agree, it we'd like indy."
2. Over to the rest of the UK ...
That would have been fair enough all round, no?
There is just as much chance that the SNP has a massive backlash as there is it goes forward. The biggest problem that the SNP face is that the people who are most against the SNP are the old and the wealthy. The SNP does not have the support of the business community who ultimately pay the bills or the old who are the core voters at any election. Can a country be built on the male NED vote?
If there is a YES vote then where I do agree with David is to go for outside votes. Try UKIP winning the next general election. Try SNP get less seats than the Tories at the next Scottish election. There is a good chance that the chaos will create more grey swans as Martin Sorrell suggested.
I'll try and get up a pre-qualifying piece promptly. No idea whether tips will be offered. Incidentally, Ladbrokes have slightly changed navigation for bets. Not sure why they went to the trouble of making it a bit more difficult, but there we are.
This independence vote has traction for political betting, I grant you. Otherwise for anyone south of the border it's boring as hell.
#1: Give me your bloody money, else...
#2: Pulls trigger!.
No minority should hold England to such a ransom...!
http://order-order.com/2014/09/02/brown-effect-gap-closes-12-points-since-gordon-joined-no/
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/key-battlegrounds-coatbridge.25243501
Interesting comments, and a useful warning to keep the heid flexible. Obviously an election is not the same as a referendum and the more it goes on the more I'm convinced that indyref is transcending party politics and is not necessarily a good guide to the future. But I can see quite independently of this that SLAB IS being damaged by indyref in a way that the SNP and Tories are not. And you are coming very close to saying that the SNP is effectively a middle and working class party - with obvious implications for the SLAB vote.
I still think the vote will be 'No' on the 18th and the margin of victory will be slightly larger than people assume. I base this on a view that referendums ordinarily result in a status quo decision, that there is a silent 'No' majority who may not have the vocal nature of many 'Yes' supporters, but nevertheless can completely reconcile being Scottish and British.
Interesting perspective on Labour and Scotland by Lesley Riddoch.
You are a Richard. Without googling the link (which I have posted on here many-a-time) Scotland was fiscally neutral from 1980 thro' 2010. [Based upon the economic model designed by the EIU and perverted by the Scotched Parish Council.] Before that little differed between the Scots and the Ulster-Scots (a useful comparison).
Democracy is more than money: It is about choice. Your nation feels it should dictate that 8% of the population should define the UK governance or else. The nation I call home calls folks like you [MODERATED]!
...
...
...
...
...
Purpose?
...
...
...
...
...
...
"Labour showed yesterday where it's priorities lie and they are not in keeping Scotland within the UK. The vote over the spare-room subsidy is not a PR disaster for the SNP."
When I was up in Aberdeen a few weeks ago I went to a fete in Banff and Buchan where there were several tents and stalls representing the 'YES' an 'NO' campaigns.
I tried to speak to as many of these campaigners as possible and by a country mile the single most mentioned policy by the YES campaign was the bedroom tax.
I fear if this vote is lost it'll be because SNP unlike their opponents know what gets the Scots motivated.
Of course Panelbase last year did have the one poll with a Yes lead
of the past.
"I think, and this purely a personal view, that it’s the perceived cruelty of the tax in some cases rather than the tax itself which is the problem."
Of course and it has now been so well honed it was used by Salmond in the second debate with devastating effect "When times are hard, we don't take it out on people with disabilities"
Infact if the result is YES and close it wouldn't be unreasonable to give the credit/blame to IDS
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11078493/Boost-for-far-right-Le-Pen-as-poll-finds-she-would-triumph-in-presidential-election.html
http://www.euro2day.gr/ftcom_en/article-ft-en/1251751/poll-shows-le-pen-beating-hollande-in-presidential.html
For the first time Le Pen is ahead in the second round.
She beats Holland 54-46.
She still loses to any UMP candidate in the second round but with a much reduced margin than past opinion polls.
So far there are 2 candidates from the UMP and with Sarkozy looming.
With 2.5 years to go and France not getting any better, plus with the UMP divided, Le Pen might get the presidency.
Motor insurance is obligatory, and the chances of having a serious accident in a year must be a fair bit lower than 1 in 7.
Some contingency planning for a 1 in 7 dramatic known event surely should have taken place. The fact it doesn't appear to have done so speaks volumes.
On a more positive note in the autumnal East Midlands, prospects for a bumper blackberry and apple crumble are excellent!
There's no reason why Scotland wouldn't be similar, particularly with the oil income: lots of nice money just waiting to be spent on 'socially just' programmes, disguising the deeper problems with competitivity.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/italy-pre-qualifying.html
Shaping up to be a very interesting and highly competitive session.
Why not make them fight.
Ian Dale vs Dan Hodges on whether their own party is crappier than the other.
How will Quebec feel when across the Atlantic, they see Scotland break away at the first go?
A new Quebec referendum, and the breaking up of Canada, looks overwhelmingly likely (with fateful consequences for the Scots of Nova Scotia).
And surely Spain and Belgium will not survive intact, They have less history together, and more fragility, than the UK.
The repercussions of a Yes vote will be truly momentous, & not just for foxinsox's ISA.
At the last Quebec referendum (when I was in Quebec), I think most federalists had given up and thought Canada was over. All the polls just before the referendum predicted Oui.
In light of the very small Non majority, it is very surprising that 20 years have elapsed without another go.
There is enormous inertia in all political systems. That saved Canada in 1995, and I suspect it will save the UK twenty years later.
So my feel is YES, (50 - epsilon) %, NO, (50 + epsilon), with epsilon >0.
That is actually what is best for Scotland in the short term, because it maximises negotiating power for change in the aftermath, but avoids the chaos of independence.
Whether it is best for Scotland in the long term is another matter.
'I think, and this purely a personal view, that it’s the perceived cruelty of the tax in some cases rather than the tax itself which is the problem.'
Cruel when the Coalition introduced it for the public sector but not cruel when Labour introduced the tax for the private sector.
Goldman Sachs are warning that the pound may go into freefall
"May face pressure" (or some such) is not quite the same as "go into free fall".....
Private sector bad
In Australia, Western Australia actually had a referendum on independence early last century which was passed but unrecognised. Nowhere would be immune once the momentum starts, and I think the EU could also collapse, especially if Le Pen wins in France
Expand
He didn’t, which seemed as careless as not knowing the price of a pint of milk. The answer is that, because Ireland is treated by Royal Mail as an international destination (as Scotland would become), the cost of postage is between twice and four times greater than the cost of a first-class stamp, for delivery within five days.
Consider the plea of a local politician in County Tyrone who paid £2.38 for a stamp that would have cost, at most, 62p if the letter had stayed within the UK. “It’s crazy,” she complained. “It is very expensive and nobody can understand it”. To which one might reasonably have replied: “It’s the border, stupid”.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/brian-wilson-border-costs-post-independence-1-3533078
My ISA matters a lot to me!
But I think that the epidemic of fission that you and HUYFD imagine is illusory.
The world did not do that when CIS broke up, or when Yugoslavia did. Neither did it when Eritrea, South Sudan or East Timor did.
The effects will mostly be on the UK. The rest of the world is not too bothered.
If Scotland does vote Yes, I'd have thought the single most guilty party is -- the Scottish Labour party.
With a very few honourable exceptions (Donald Dewar, Sam Galbraith), few Labour Scottish politicians took Holyrood seriously.
Competent Labour MSPs (like Cathy Jamieson) just look on the job as a stepping stone to promotion to Westminster and leave.
It is not at all surprising that Alex Salmond walloped Iain Gray at the last Holyrood elections.
In an arena other than politics, the fight would have been stopped before it had started --because of the danger of irreversible medical damage following what was always going to be a very serious beating.
There are highly competent Scottish Labour politicians, none of them are in Holyrood.
It is a harsh thing to say, but the standard of Labour MSPs is even lower than the standard of Welsh Labour AMs.
I see a pattern here
It wasn't the Cameroons fault that they didn't win the 2010 election decisively (despite being 20 points ahead a year before the election, it was the electoral imbalance and the Cleggasm (and UKIP))
It is not their fault that they cannot implement the domestic policy they want, its the Libdems fault (despite inviting the Libdems to form a coalition).
It's not their fault that this government has become pretty much a lame duck a year out its the Libdem's fault (despite the same invitation).
It wasn't their fault that the cannot implement certain national policies (such as immigration control etc) that's the EU's fault. (Despite the Tories adherence to pro-eu policies and their commitment to slash net immigration).
It wasn't their fault about Syria. It was Parliament's fault.(despite yada yada yada.....)
It wasn't their (the EU's) fault about the division of Ukraine. its Putin's fault.(despite yada yada yada)
Its not their fault that the centre right has become split. It's UKIP's fault (despite yada yada yada)
It isn't their fault that they are going to lose the next election It's UKIP's fault (despite yada yada yada)
And clearly its not the Cameroons fault if the Scots vote 'Yes'. Presumably it will be Labour's fault (despite English Toryism being toxic in Scotland....)
I assume the Tories will be going into the General Election Campaign under the banner 'It's not our fault (It's UKIP's)' .
If Cameron cannot take responsibility for the loss of the Union when it happened on his watch and for what ever reason did virtually nothing about it (because 60 years of decline and incompetence has made the English brand of Toryism toxic in Scotland) then he is not fit to remain in power. The idea that the sitting Prime Minister did not lead a campaign to keep the nation whole is outrageous in itself. That he presided over losing it would be utter humiliation and only the most ridiculous self serving self absorbed fool would hope to remain in the role afterwards.
The best the Tories can do is argue that there is no time to replace him being 8 months out from an election because the idea that any British Prime Minister who loses one third of the landmass of the Union to independence and slope shoulders and pretend he or she is not accountable and get away with it is risible!
How would Devomax have been different?
Ed Miliband did himself no favours yesterday with his attempt to use some words of Ruth Davidson as a stick with which he could beat David Cameron.
The Tory leader who, as even her political opponents in Scotland concede, was "taking one for the team" when she let slip that according to the current polls a Cameron victory in next year's general election was not "likely". But like a drowning man clutching at a straw, Mr Miliband engineered a stupid story that he believed would aid his own chances next spring.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/11076427/Crass-Miliband-must-get-his-priorities-right.html
I am not convinced by your counterexamples. None of this countries were as long lived or as stable or as successful as the UK.
Show a cat the way to the dairy ....
It's like they picked up the wrong script....
My candle burneth at both ends
It will not last the night.
But oh my friends and Oh my foes
It gives a lovely light!
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukipwatch/100257745/ukip-supporters-really-dislike-posh-dave-but-they-cant-stand-ed-miliband-either/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2745565/Savage-racism-turning-Scotland-no-zone-English.html
Parris is a massive asset to ukip
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4198515.ece
A few days ago questions where raised about which Home-Nation had the oldest border. As any fule knows that answer is 'The Provence of Northern Ireland'.
In [joint] second-place were England and the Taffies: Heath's shyte local council reforms decided the fates of Berwick* and Monmouthshire.
Scotland's expansionism only ended under the Major government.** SAS forces were used to add to the wee-nation's ego (much against the grist of the Oirish) and expanded the Scots income and arrogance. Sad MFs....
* Berwick and Monmouthshire were - IIRC - dual responsibilities until the 'Seventies.
** http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockall
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100285407/dear-matthew-parris-if-the-tories-abandon-the-working-class-to-ukip-they-will-deserve-to-lose-2015/
P.S. I am informed that about 200 volunteers have turned up in Clacton today to help Carswell's election attempt. None too shabby.
This reminds me that the Scottish MSP candidate selection for the 2016 Scottish election was reportedly brought forward, i.e. before the result of indyref becomes known. Which means that any MP in post now cannot easily insert his or her derriere into a MSP seat without at least some shoving of glutei maximi. Pour encourager les autres, n'est-ce pas?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvCATwKjYSc
:invest-in-gloves-for-knuckle-draggers-as-they-will-never-evolve: