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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP looks to the seaside for that elusive first past the post Westminster breakthough
Whenever kippers talk about their progress in 2014 they point first to their success in the May 22nd Euros. Coming top of the poll was a major breakthrough, helped by the unique closed regional list voting system.
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'EU countries have for weeks been putting pressure on Turkey to do more to seal its border. Because Ankara has wanted to oust President Bashar al-Assad from control in Syria, Turkey has kept its border open to jihadists who oppose him, including Isis fighters, and this has allowed the area to become a safe haven over the past three years. While the Turks now say that Isis is no longer welcome, Ankara has not sent in troops in large numbers to patrol the border.
Meanwhile, senior UK politicians called for greater pressure to be exerted on Turkey via the European Union and Nato – of which Turkey is a member. Former Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell said that Turkey had a "vital role to play in preventing the free passage of jihadists travelling to … join Islamic State".'
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/23/us-air-strikes-isis-commanders-syria-considered
Notice from that article none of the senior politicians urging Turkey to act are actually Government spokespeople.
And further stories (from an admittedly unsubstantiated source) that they are being trained on a US base in Turkey: http://aydinlikdaily.com/Detail/ISIS-Terrorists-Trained-In-A-US-Base-In-Turkey/3640#.U_3l2KPLKub
This may or may not be true, but it certainly seems likely they are receiving training in Turkey -it's not like they can just go into the field having never held a gun.
ISIS
-founded and funded by our ally Saudi Arabia
-armed by our ally the US (if not directly, at least through inevitable interchange of islamist groupings)
-welcomed into the field (and probably trained) by our ally and future EU partner Turkey
-groomed and recruited in our own Mosques
And aparently there's nothing we can do about them?
Story this AM on #Ukip targets is intelligent guesswork based on existing (@Survation) polls. But the party has not yet decided its targets.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28955443
Isn't Nigel F's wife German? Just sayin'
It may be coincidence but in the run-up to the Euros, when UKIP were running a national campaign where every voted counted, they had a more hard-edged immigration-focused message than usual, and that seems to have coincided with a move from Lab to UKIP that we hadn't seen before, so the way they aim their pitch may well make a difference.
It's not a matter of whether UKIP takes seats that the Conservatives currently hold - numerically that's not surprising. Rather, the question is: are UKIP's target seats also seats that Labour should be targeting?
For the top three constituencies, surely yes: Thanet South, Great Yarmouth and Thurrock were all held by Labour in the Blair/Brown years. In fact, in the top ten, there are only two which I'd describe as safe Conservative: Boston & Skegness and Thanet North.
So although UKIP's dream scenario would likely manifest itself on election night as the tickertape showing "UKIP gain from CON", this shouldn't be taken as good news for Labour.
Its difficult for UKIP now, I reckon. It almost seems callous to talk about the opportunities 'Rotherham' has opened up for the party, but they are potentially there, I suppose.
"You're right to say that anyone who abused these girls is also guilty of a crime. So if these gangs trafficked them to white men in other towns then we should certainly not be shy of saying so and prosecuting them also.
Does the report say this? Are the police now investigating who else abused these girls? I hope so. I fear, though, it may well be very difficult to get the evidence needed but the attempt should certainly be made."
What's more we will get nowhere if we use this appalling case - and others like it - to pin the blame only on particular communities in order to fit our preconceived prejudices or views on this or that political issue.
It seems clear that there is a problem with the attitudes and behaviours of some Pakistani males but only a fool would say that there is no child abuse by others. We need to deal with child abuse and rape, wherever it occurs.
"10.15 The researcher told the Inquiry that she verified the accuracy of her findings and sent the report including the Chapter 4 referred to above, to the Home Office evaluators and senior officials on the last day of her employment, without incorporating any of the changes proposed by the officers concerned. Funding for the second year of the pilot was withheld by the Home Office and Rotherham was excluded from the final research report because of “implementation problems"."
The Home Office withheld funding and excluded Rotherham from it's final report, who knows why? Didn't they like the statistics?
Herself has just taken Thomas, our rescue cat, outside to groom him. There maybe trouble ahead.
Off to check on the stocks of Dettol .
The list of twelve seats is a bit misleading as UKIP intend to target 26 seats and these twelve are the first to be gleaned by a journo. I even think that the journo got some of the place names wrong.
I do more than suspect that Rotherham and Doncaster are also on the list. UKIP will be targeting more Labour, so don't worry Mike.
The full list of target seats will come out at Conference, I suspect.
Ms Cyclefree - I don't always agree with your conclusions, but they are always very sensible and above all show a rare moral clarity. We could do with MPs who see things as clearly as you do.
It's not a matter of whether UKIP takes seats that the Conservatives currently hold - numerically that's not surprising. Rather, the question is: are UKIP's target seats also seats that Labour should be targeting?
For the top three constituencies, surely yes: Thanet South, Great Yarmouth and Thurrock were all held by Labour in the Blair/Brown years. In fact, in the top ten, there are only two which I'd describe as safe Conservative: Boston & Skegness and Thanet North.
So although UKIP's dream scenario would likely manifest itself on election night as the tickertape showing "UKIP gain from CON", this shouldn't be taken as good news for Labour.
Labour will be targeting all three of those, presumably. Who will be helped, who will be hurt and who will be squeezed is anybody's guess.
I think Labour's UKIP problem comes after they get elected. UKIP would potentially be very strong in mid-term by-elections in working class seats, and if they end up with a few MPs like that the tactical situation I mention up-thread reverses: They'll need to aim their messaging at Lab voters to hold onto the seats they've won, and that will weaken Lab against Con everywhere else.
A report has lifted the lid on the sexual exploitation of at least 1,400 children in Rotherham between 1997 and 2013, along with "blatant" collective failures to deal with the issue.
One victim, who had been groomed from the age of 12 and was raped for the first time when she was 13, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme her harrowing story.
She says she was raped "once a week, every week" until she was 15, that police "lost" clothing she had given them as evidence and that she had feared for her family's safety.
"Emma" [not her real name], now aged 24, says she was 12 when she was first approached by a group of young men in an arcade in Rotherham. The boys, who she said were of "school age", began talking to her and struck up a friendship with her.
...
She says she reported her abuse to the police "three months after my sexual exploitation started".[](She says she reported her abuse to the police "three months after my sexual exploitation started". Emma had saved the clothes she had been wearing during the attacks and handed the items to police as evidence. "They lost the clothing, so there was no evidence," she said.)
Emma had saved the clothes she had been wearing during the attacks and handed the items to police as evidence.
"They lost the clothing, so there was no evidence," she said.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28949188
One of the things that makes 2015 fascinating, Sean. I always thought Labour would struggle to keep both the WWC and muslim vote onside, but after 'Rotherham' it looks impossible.
(Funnily enough, I am currently mentoring in a very small way a Parliamentary candidate.)
But now I must do some work rooting out the scoundrels rather closer to home......
If the shift is adverse, they will get no seats. If it is favorable, eight or more. The relevant Betfair market splits the option into three - no seats, one to five and over five. Favorite at 5/4 is the one to five option, but if you think about it, that's illogical. As things stand, you'd expect zero seats (with a near miss in Thanet South) but a fairly small shift either way confirms zero or gives them all the seats down to Eastleigh, and maybe more.
So if you want to bet on this market, 'none' at 7/4 is a good option, and so is 'over five' at 7/2.
Personally I'd take the 7/2 but I would definitely lay the favorite.
Get Labour into power, thus making sure there's no referendum for at least five years and that way Farage and all the rest can stay on the EU gravytrain while professing how much they hate the whole thing.
Some strategy, LOL!
Of course it does. The question you should be asking is what forces prompt institutions to disregard completely their most fundamental duties?
In any case, even my most vociferous critics could hardly claim that I am insufficiently positive about the record of the Conservative-led government!
(BTW: Throat still sore: Strepsils while at work and more exciting cures later on.)
If you have ever read anything about Hitler, Stalin or Mao, you realise how pressure from above can warp state institutions beyond recognition, if it is strong enough. That is why all true conservatives are suspicious of the state.
In actual fact voting tactically takes more understanding of the state of play and nuances of one's constituency than I would imagine 99.9% of the people possess. And rightly so. They support a party and should be convinced to vote for that party or, if another party presents to them a better proposition, they should vote for that one instead.
http://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/Rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-Derby-Labour-MP/story-22836686-detail/story.html
I see Hales has started to rememdy matters, but really, Cook needs to share some of the responsibility.
All of the above realised before they commit these crimes, that they risked the possible sanction of the law and much else besides.
Except, until now, the Pakistanis. They knew political correctness would protect them against the rule of law.
As did care workers in Islington childrens' homes and those in Northern Ireland and many others.
We have not, in the past, taken this crime seriously. We must now do so.
I think Bell should be kept ahead of Cook, on the basis that he has the ability to bat at more than one speed. But if he is, it's high time Cook was dropped from ODIs. If Cook has to be kept because he's captain (although that's still not something I think is a great idea) then Bell needs to be kept for Tests.
So yes, we should deal with this "wherever it occurs", but that's a huge and fuzzy matter to deal with effectively. Right now we have a target - more specfically we have a clearly defined target - and it would be an atrocious failure not to confront it with the vigour and persistence it clearly warrants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mXfMWMTLgtI
So a helping human hand is necessary but not always wanted.
I hope the throat gets better soon, and am disappointed that I cannot be there this evening to help you with your more exciting cures.
I remain as ever, Ma'am, your devoted slave.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/11058007/Alex-Salmond-criticises-leading-political-journalist-during-heated-interview.html
Leaving a straight one.
If you want to see how far back this problem goes, may I recommend this link:
http://www.attackingthedevil.co.uk/pmg/tribute/index.php
This was the article that led to age of consent laws and rape laws being fixed at what they are today. It is however striking to reflect that the only person involved in the case to be prosecuted was the journalist - because he had caused embarrassment to the police (well, officially because he had bought a slave - but embarrassment was the real reason).
Be warned - even after a lapse of 130 years, it's not easy reading.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGIZKQ-iQVE
But one equally vicious aspect of the assaults on these children is identified in a less explicit way. And that is the manner in which the vast majority of the Rotherham victims were also racially abused.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100284156/rotherham-sex-abuse-scandal-we-cannot-ignore-that-race-played-a-part-in-these-crimes/
Back UKIP to have zero seats next year.
Clearly they have Tory plants working for them.
Is the only explanation for The Kippers targeting Forest of Dean and Aylesbury.
It has to be the worst strategy since Wile E. Coyote came up with a plan to stop Road Runner.
In any case my argument is not so much that individuals should vote tactically, but that as a party UKIP is entirely counter-productive.
This is easy to prove, at least if you look at what UKIP have said is their overwhelmingly important objective in the past, namely to get us to leave the EU. There is one way, and one way only, in which that can happen anytime soon. If they actually wanted us to leave the EU, they should be urging supporters to vote Conservative to get the referendum, and spending the next three years preparing for it and building up a cross-party campaign for exit. There are, after all, a lot of important and detailed questions which would need to be answered to persuade voters to take the leap (See Salmond, Alex, for a master-class in how not to prepare for such a referendum..).
So clearly leaving the EU is not now what UKIP want. So what do they want, and how does helping Ed Miliband into No 10 get them closer to what they want?
Wouldn't hurt a fly,loves grooming and nails been cut.
Scared of my daughters hamster too
I do hope England win, because MG heading up the NUTs would be hilarious...
1) It is 100% related to ethnicity because the ethnicity of the perpetrators was why the local politically correct establishment ignored it and ignoring it is why a problem that originally only effected dozens became a problem that effected thousands if not tens of thousands.
2) Various reports in the media have included comments from involved plod who said live investigations into the grooming gangs were closed down. Hard to say if they were closed down by ambitious senior plod wanting their promotions and knowing anything not PC would count against them or whether there was high or low level political pressure to close them down.
3) On the numbers issue i.e. the size of the total populations in certain towns. Part of the confusion here revolves around the importation by local employers of large numbers of illegal immigrants who took over a large proportion of the unskilled work in those towns. They get lodged in houses with 12+ men who mostly send their money home. So you get a demand for sex but no money. Supply and demand always applies so if the money is good enough then you can get a voluntary supply but the only way to supply a demand that has little or no money is with slaves or children. It's a bit like the scene in Spartacus where the gladiators are in their cages and the owner sends a slave girl in from time to time.
4) The total numbers of victims is huge and given how badly these girls were treated e.g. half a bottle of whiskey poured down their neck and pushed into a room with 12 adult men, that even if only 0.1% ended up dead there'll b a significant number of bodies nobody is even looking for.
I am not sure if it is explicitly a matter of race - but it is certainly one of cultural conditioning. Men who have grown up to believe that young white girls and women are not worth anything more than to become their victims.
The fact that these crimes were concealed by 'Community Leaders' and the Police (and other authorities) did not pursue matters properly because of the fear of the impact on 'Community Relations' shows how broken the multicultural orthodoxy really is.
Until we break these barriers, horrific crimes like those in Rotherham, Peterborough, Oxford and many other towns and cities in the UK will continue to be unpunished.
The same goes for the many 'honour' killings and related violence that goes uninvestigated for similar reasons.
But very few UK politicians have the balls to get up and speak the truth on this. Only when that happens can we have a serious debate on how these 'Community' barriers can be withdrawn and everyone will have to live according to the law of the land, not just the laws that their 'leaders' will permit to be enforced.
If you want to see how far back this problem goes, may I recommend this link:
http://www.attackingthedevil.co.uk/pmg/tribute/index.php
This was the article that led to age of consent laws and rape laws being fixed at what they are today. It is however striking to reflect that the only person involved in the case to be prosecuted was the journalist - because he had caused embarrassment to the police (well, officially because he had bought a slave - but embarrassment was the real reason).
Be warned - even after a lapse of 130 years, it's not easy reading.
Back to Victorian values, I see!
Good afternoon and just in time get rid of some misapprehensions, Mike.
The list of twelve seats is a bit misleading as UKIP intend to target 26 seats and these twelve are the first to be gleaned by a journo. I even think that the journo got some of the place names wrong.
I do more than suspect that Rotherham and Doncaster are also on the list. UKIP will be targeting more Labour, so don't worry Mike.
The full list of target seats will come out at Conference, I suspect.
1) It is 100% related to ethnicity because the ethnicity of the perpetrators was why the local politically correct establishment ignored it and ignoring it is why a problem that originally only effected dozens became a problem that effected thousands if not tens of thousands.
2) Various reports in the media have included comments from involved plod who said live investigations into the grooming gangs were closed down. Hard to say if they were closed down by ambitious senior plod wanting their promotions and knowing anything not PC would count against them or whether there was high or low level political pressure to close them down.
3) On the numbers issue i.e. the size of the total populations in certain towns. Part of this revolves around the importation by local employers of large numbers of illegal immigrants who took over a large proportion of the unskilled work in those towns. They get lodged in houses with 12+ men who mostly send their money home. So you get a demand for sex but no money. Supply and demand always applies so if the money is good enough then you can get a voluntary supply but the only way to supply a demand that has little or no money is with slaves or children. It's a bit like the scene in Spartacus where the gladiators are in their cages and the owner sends a slave girl in from time to time.
Obviously in the Roman case slavery was legal so they could use adults slaves rather than children.
http://news.sky.com/
Wrong, in my view. Do you honestly think policemen sign up just to ignore crimes like this?
What we need to do is smash the political correctness agenda that has prevented the police from doing their job - ie treating all perpetrators and victims as equal under the law.
No sharia courts, no special dispensation, no exceptions, no excuses. No concessions to 'community relations'.
Just the pure and unbiased rule of British secular law. To protect everyone and be obeyed by everyone. Accept it or leave.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/police-probe-least-54-more-1896991
Will that mean local elections, and the possibility of the first UKIP council in Rotherham? Labour would surely want to avoid that at all costs.
Story this AM on #Ukip targets is intelligent guesswork based on existing (@Survation) polls. But the party has not yet decided its targets.
This guy is really stinking up the joint.
The approach you advocate for UKIP would help the Conservatives, but only at the margins. Most UKIP voters didn't vote Conservative in 2010. Most UKIP voters do self-identify as right of centre, however, so the Conservatives have to try to work out why they can't win right wing votes.
Sources have told Sky News there is a wider hit list of about 25 seats, but these 12 are likely to be most heavily targeted.
http://news.sky.com/story/1324855/ukip-poll-reveals-12-most-wanted-seats
The Tories are therefore likely to get squeezed so I suggest the 5-2 Lab is the value.
Where do sharia courts come in, any more than Beth Din.
Nail. Head.
If you want to see how far back this problem goes, may I recommend this link:
http://www.attackingthedevil.co.uk/pmg/tribute/index.php
This was the article that led to age of consent laws and rape laws being fixed at what they are today. It is however striking to reflect that the only person involved in the case to be prosecuted was the journalist - because he had caused embarrassment to the police (well, officially because he had bought a slave - but embarrassment was the real reason).
Be warned - even after a lapse of 130 years, it's not easy reading.
During the industrial revolution there was a mass internal migration to the cities and as mass migrations generally involve disproportionate numbers of young men that would mean you'd get a dramatic imbalance between males and females in the areas being migrated to.
Yes, I'm inclined to agree that political correctness is little more than an excuse for people who were too lazy or incompetent to do their jobs properly.
There was no pc issue in the comparable cases of Jimmy Savile, or The Elm House scandal, yet the authorities still found a way to turn a blind eye. In all three cases, those who should have acted found an excuse to regard the perpetrators as 'untouchable'. They were of course anything but, and the inactivity was and remains inexcusable.
Twitter reporting that the Rotherham CEO between 2005 and 2010 is now CEO of another very, very, large Labour authority.