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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair
Three weeks ago during the first Salmond-Darling TV encounter the first indications that NO was having the best of it came on the Betfair betting exchange where full data on trading is made available instantly and where you are able to track it.
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Mail:
Aggressive Salmond crushes Darling in second independence debate throwing future of the union into doubt
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2734085/Independence-debate-round-two-Salmond-admits-plan-B-pound-jumps-admission-Darling-independent-Scotland-sterling.html#ixzz3BTB1cTQu
Indy:
Scottish independence TV debate: Pumped-up Salmond bounces back in bruising second round
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-tv-debate-alex-salmond-seizes-control-of-second-debate-with-alistair-darling-9690145.html
Grauniad:
Scottish independence: Salmond scores victory over Darling in fractious debate
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/25/scottish-independence-debate-alex-salmond-alistair-darling
Herald:
Voters hoping for more light than heat will be disappointed
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/voters-hoping-for-more-light-than-heat-will-be-disappointed.25148933
That said, I would not be at all surprised if the totally unrepresentative ICM sample is actually the most accurate reflection of where things are. The next few proper polls will be fascinating. My guess is that they will show a sharp swing to Yes.
Salmond lands all the best punches in 'stairheid rammy'
It's the final round. Mr Salmond has been pummelled on the ropes. Could he come back and deliver the knockout blow that would change Scottish political history? That only happens in Hollywood.
But the Yes campaign desperately needed a good combative debating performance from Mr Salmond. They got that. The Guardian ICM instant poll gave Mr Salmond the victory 71% to 29%. Whether it will do them any good with the voters in the longer term is another question.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/salmond-lands-all-the-best-punches-in-stairheid-rammy.25148920
Audience member: "If we are Better Together, why are we not already Better Together?"
Salmond: "When times are hard, we don't take it out on people with disabilities"
Prof Stiglitz said: “As an outsider, I’ve looked at the debate, particularly from the No side. I’ve been a lite bit shocked how much of it is based on fear, trying to get anxiety levels up and how little of it has been based on vision.
“There is a vision on the Yes side that I see – what would an independent Scotland be like, what could it do that it can’t do now?”
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-stiglitz-attacks-no-camp-1-3520079
All it proved to me was that STV know how to run an indy ref debate and the BBC don't.
"...fiscal autonomy is the best thing that could happen to Scotland.
If you doubt me, consider the spectacle we’ve just seen: two socialists, in the country that gave us Adam Smith, arguing about which of them could spend more taxpayers’ money."
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100284006/salmond-won-the-debate-but-it-will-make-little-difference/
" For we’ve always been pessimists, us French, even in the past half century or so, when our nation boasted the best health-care system in the world; the most modern infrastructure (from high-speed trains to abundant nuclear-powered electricity); a remarkable state education system; and a way of life envied by all. Faut pas se plaindre (“Mustn’t grumble”) was the best you could draw out of a family of Beaujolais wine-growers enjoying a seven-course meal, or a tableful of academics knocking back a few kirs at Café de Flore while watching the world go by on Boulevard Saint Germain.
Of late, however, this way of life has been coming off the rails – literally. Lack of maintenance funds has led to trains crashing; the education system has dropped in Pisa ratings; and the professors’ best students leave the country to find jobs, while the rest of France’s youth faces structural unemployment of 30 to 40 per cent.
But you try telling us that the policies outlined by Valls are the only ones capable of fixing the situation. You try pointing out that the country, for decades, has been running an unsustainable deficit. You would think that at least the young, who will pick up the tab for this extravagance, would sympathise. Far from it. French students have demonstrated against a (modest) rise in retirement age, even though they today face smaller pensions and a more difficult life as the system comes to the end of its tether. They also oppose reforms designed to make the employment market fluid, even though they are the ones being kept on the dole as a result.
The truth is that a majority of young French people still dream of becoming civil servants, because it guarantees them a secure job. Entrepreneurship, mistrusted by the Right and vilified by the Left, scares them; and anyway, they think (and probably rightly so) that if they do take a risk, and it pays off, the taxman will relieve them of all the reward.
So we are left with a situation in which people want nothing to change, and are prepared to vote on the political extremes to get it. The real fight for these young voters’ hearts will not be between Valls and Montebourg, but between Montebourg and Marine Le Pen, of the Front National – who secured 35 per cent of the 18-24 year-old vote at the European elections. Such is the price of inaction. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/11055300/So-when-will-the-centime-finally-drop.html
English and Scottish political culture couldn't be more different, you just need to read about the English civil war and the division between parliament and the coventators even whilst they were still allies.
It wasn't really edifying at all.
Salmond was Scipio Africanus, whereas Darling was like Hannibal.
He defeated a couple of inept Romans at Cannae, and managed to spin it as the greatest military feat in history, but as soon as he took on a half way decent General at Zama, he was soundly defeated, that ultimately led to the end of Carthage.
This is probably the definitive book on Hannibal, available for £1.98 on the kindle store
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Hannibal-History-Carthaginians-Detailed-Account-ebook/dp/B007H1UHYE/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1409037321&sr=8-1&keywords=theodore+dodge+hannibal
I only saw snippets in between ads during The 100. I think I made the right call watching that, to be honest.
I saw the '...why are not already better together?' nonsense. He might as well have asked "Why are the English bastards?" for all it added to the wider debate.
Too much talking over one another, and I think it spoke well of the General Election debates which had rather more rigorous rules.
Also, Salmond admitted it would take more than the 5-6 years or so he wanted to give the UK to move nukes to do so, and said he wouldn't increase that time. Negotiation tactic perhaps, but irritating any non-Scots watching guaranteed.
'our nation boasted the best health-care system in the world; the most modern infrastructure (from high-speed trains to abundant nuclear-powered electricity); a remarkable state education system; and a way of life envied by all.'
If the French genuinely believed that they had a remarkable state education system, all that confirms is that they are delusional. The French education system has been a bit of a joke for years. It essentially consists (and has consisted for a long time) of young civil servants with a degree in the relevant field turning up, talking for an hour, and vanishing again. It does nothing to inspire and nothing to encourage originality. Those friends of mine who went through the state education system in France hated it - one of them even went so far as to say that it was worse than useless.
There could be an argument - one I have a lot of sympathy with at times - that in Britain we go too far the other way, and prize active learning over good learning, and pastoral care over teaching skills and subject knowledge. But the fact of the matter is that our education system, whatever its faults, does at least fire the imagination of some of the children we are teaching and encourage them to go out and do things. We also have surely one of the most impressive cultural scenes in the world, especially given our relatively small population, which I think is partly due to our school systems. By contrast, name ten world famous current French artists, musicians or writers. This from the country that gave us most European art and culture for five centuries.
Somewhere, there must be a balance.
France needs a Thatcher. There seems to be consensus across the French body politic that a big state and a big deficit to fund an unaffordable welfare set-up is the way to go. France has been borrowing from the future for a very long time. But now the future has arrived and the bills are due. The 'can't go on so won't go on' mantra is biting that little bit earlier in France than it will here.
It bodes ill. The whole national psyche is anti-business, anti-supply-side reform, collectivist, corporatist, socialist, smug de-haut-en-bas paternalist - 'succeed and we'll screw you'. They need a wholesale cultural change and there appears to be no party, no individual to lead such a movement.
I bet the Germans are deeply worried.
The ref was crap, the opposition style of play was awful & they were dirty, their fans drowned us out, they fiddled with the pitch etc.
We'll be getting told Eck was ineligible next.
On a non partisan note, the Kelvingrove was looking great, though I'm sure some will call that a Union dividend.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bv7TXkACEAAdPhv.png:large
That's even worse than that business about Anne of Cleves, a pot of honey and Katherine Howard last night...
The UK's special relationship with the US endured a minor social media inspired blip yesterday when the British Embassy was forced to apologise for apparently celebrating the 200th anniversary of the burning of the White House
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/special-relationship-endures-minor-social-media-blip-after-british-embassy-appears-to-celebrate-the-burning-down-of-the-white-house-9689385.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slash_fiction
"Salmond: "When times are hard, we don't take it out on people with disabilities""
There lies Darlings problem and the chink of light for YES.
Having to defend this totally loathsome Tory government at Westminster
Anyone would think they want to sell newspapers....
First Minister Alex Salmond has apologised for misleading parliament over the position of a leading academic on the independence referendum.
Mr Salmond said referendum expert Dr Matt Qvortrup had endorsed the SNP government's plans for a two-question vote on Scotland's future.
He later corrected his comments, saying he had used information at Holyrood which was "wrong".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-15482260
But the BBC have obviously got it wrong as we are forever being assured that Salmond didn't want a two question referendum.....
On the audience being packed with Yes supporters, or sheer chance meaning more got picked, that'll decrease the willingness of party leaders in the General Election debate to tolerate a slackening of the rules in that regard. It also nicely highlights how stupid and fickle a debate can be, and how it can be influenced by a small number of individuals (cf the worm, which is the work of Satan).
Labour and the SNP are two peas in the same pod when it comes to spending money we haven't got. Good luck to the Scots if they get Salmond. they're going to need it.
Whatever the outcome, it is going to be an exciting time.
Time for a federal UK.
I'd like to see Governors.
I quite like the title of Governor of England, or Governor of Yorkshire.
How the donkeys laughed.
STV, which hosted the first Salmond versus Darling contest on 5 August, has announced it will stage a further major debate on 2 September, expected to involve three pro-independence and three pro-UK figures, lead for yes by Scotland's deputy first minister Nicola Sturgeon and for no by Johann Lamont, Scottish Labour leader.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/25/scottish-independence-debate-alex-salmond-alistair-darling?commentpage=5
Time for an English Parliament.
How could he not have gone off script , after getting mauled on currency and being presented with 3 plan B's, old turnip head just kept reading his script. One trick pony does not begin to describe it.
"When it comes to loathsome the Labour....."
Call me old fashioned but when you put a tax on on the very poorest for having a spare bedroom yet appoint this man 'WASTE TSAR' I feel a bit queasy
"Sir Philip Green is the multi-billionaire 'King of the High Street' who commutes to work by private jet from the tax haven of Monaco.
Sir Philip, who left school at 15 to go into business, lives in London hotels during the week.
But his business empire is mostly owned in the name of his wife Tina (pictured together above), who lives in the tax haven, where Sir Philip spends his weekends. The couple moved there in 1998.
In the past, he has joked that the vast sums paid into his wife's bank account are 'housekeeping money'.
This set-up will have saved himself £125million in tax, experts have claimed.
He remains a UK taxpayer because he spends more than 90 days a year here running his businesses but he ensured that when he bought Bhs in 2000 and Arcadia in 2002, the transactions were in his wife's name.
Mrs Green has long been Monaco based with their children Brandon and Chloe, meaning she escapes the tax rules for citizens living in the UK."
I always said that I a federalist anyway.
I have seen internal UKIP polling which shows the party will be targeting 12 key seats ahead of the next election...More on Sky News shortly
Perhaps he wasn’t quite the idiot lots of us thought him!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/28928608
Lol!
There's also a part of me looking forward to the divorce negotiations!
I think the unanimous view of the media that Salmond won will produce a Yes bump in the next poll or two, as the last debate produced for No. But we're starting to discover (cf Clegg, Romney) that debate bumps wear off.
So don't come on here with your bleeding heart
An interesting article on an all-female unit of the Peshmerga fighting in Iraq:
http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/news-features/life-in-the-allfemale-peshmerga-unit-in-iraqi-kurdistan-20140815-3dqs6.html
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/time-to-ruminate/
Annoyingly, it's so early the driver markets aren't up.
Wow. It's worse than Premier League football managers...
Dear Dear
Also, the "If we're better together, why aren't we already better together?" nonsense was pointless. Did it raise an issue of economic, health, education, defence or foreign affairs importance? It was a waste of a question.
Mr. Eagles, interesting certainly, not sure I'd say fun.
I personally don't see any objection to an England split five or six ways (nine is totally absurd, particularly the 9 the EU came up with). You could resurrect the late Saxon kingdoms - Northumbria (north of a line from the Humber to the Mersey) Mercia (south of that line down to the Thames) East Anglia (not difficult to figure out) Wessex (west of the Itchen but including Hampshire) Kent and Sussex as one and London as a special case (which it is already, really). Of course, they would still be big, more or less artificial constructs - but then so is England itself, or Scotland (or Wales, where even today the language known as 'Welsh' hides half a dozen distinct dialects).
On the other hand if England is put in as one federal unit, even if London is hived off, it's going to be very hard indeed to come up with any sort of meaningfully balanced constitution. The American model of equal senators simply won't work where there are only four or five states unless Wales and Northern Ireland have about one senator per head (maybe in Wales, we could include the sheep for an expansion of the head count - I've met sheep that are far more intelligent than Alun Davies and are far more independently minded as well). But at the same time, I can't think of any other potential way of making such a system work.
As we say in teaching, there are unplanned lessons. There are good lessons. There are no good unplanned lessons.
As someone who knows the Financial Services Industry and media rights quite well, it will be very fun.
Last night's audience was not rigged. But the moderator can only take comments from those who wish to make them. Given the vociferous support Salmond got it's hardly surprising that raised No hands were few and far between.
Disagree on carving up England, though. That's a recipe for the disintegration not merely of the UK, but of England itself.
So any call centres based in Scotland to emphasis their trustworthiness will rapidly move elsewhere....
Great Grimsby, Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth, Forest of Dean, Aylesbury, Thurrock, Sittingbourne & Sheppey, North Thanet, South Thanet, Eastleigh, Portsmouth South, East Worthing & Shoreham
Those are seats with Tory majs of 10k plus and UKIP miles behind.
Thurrock
Castle point
North Thanet
Basildon & South East Thurrock
Great Grimsby
Great Yarmouth
And which other 5 ?
The other logical possibility would be to devolve more power to county councils - but I really can't see that happening, because some of them (e.g. Rutland or Herefordshire) would be far too small to survive as autonomous entities (indeed, Wales is merging its 'principal areas' back together because they are so small). Lancashire or the divers parts of Yorkshire or indeed Kent would be OK.
As for the debate, its broadly meaningless. Since its nothing to do with who will be PM or FM of Scotland the beauty pagent element of it of no account. And now Mr Smithson tells us that the opinion of who gets the sash and tiara is meaningless. A sad unedifying shambles.
Until a week ago, I lived in the Forest of Dean. If UKIP genuinely thinks they can win the Forest of Dean, their pollsters are on weed. They might just push Labour into third, but that would be the worst of it. The Conservatives are too active, too well funded and their candidate, despite some stupid things he has done, is too personally popular and treads the constituency too well (and is pretty right-wing) for that to be realistic.
I'm guessing a few people around Newent and Coleford are complaining about the FoDDC's inept housing policy and that's inflated the numbers - but there are too many loyal Tory voters in the leafy glades to make a real difference.