@JBriskin You can draw as many lines on bits of paper you like, but if those that live there think they are in the wrong place or shouldn't be there, then your neat map is wrong. Sykes–Picot?
Don't have much to say to that.
The map is not the territory - I bought an NLP book and they all get nicked from the libraries.
While we wait here is Basil's favourite number sequence. Now that h1 figures for august are in we can add a 3 to the right hand end: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3
The tension between a deep aversion in getting involved in the middle east in fights that it is beyond our capability to resolve and a deep desire to wipe ISIL off the face of the earth is really quite uncomfortable.
Maybe we should just kill some of them to make ourselves feel better.
Rennard "The worst that might be said of me in that report was that I may have inadvertently encroached on the personal space of some of the complainants, and I apologised for this to all four of them."
Sorry for inadvertently concluding that we have a serial groper. Now go and vote for us in 9 months time.
@JBriskin Of course it can. All the world leaders hang on our every post, and have it relayed to them by their aides. ( I prefer cash Mike, brown envelope please? )
@JBriskin Of course it can. All the world leaders hang on our every post, and have it relayed to them by their aides. ( I prefer cash Mike, brown envelope please? )
Well, you commented, so well done - I was mainly watching the Arsenal game.
NPXMP. You are a former Communist aren't you?, I looked at your Wiki page the other day, and for some reason it makes no mention of it.
That's right, up to when I was 21. But I didn't write my Wikipedia page, and one isn't supposed to edit one's own stuff. You can add it if you like.
I don't know the politics of Wikipedia ,I am sure you would arrange for an edit if it was to your advantage. I wouldn't have the first idea how to update a Wiki page, I just thought it an odd omission, but thank you for advising me.
@Luckyguy1983 Non payment on the due date is a way of transferring money, usually from those lower down the "food" chain upwards. As an example, you don't pay up on time it normally costs you money, when multi nationals do it, it earns them money.
Oh, quite. Not sure we can lay it all at the door of Adam Smith though.
NPXMP. You are a former Communist aren't you?, I looked at your Wiki page the other day, and for some reason it makes no mention of it.
That's right, up to when I was 21. But I didn't write my Wikipedia page, and one isn't supposed to edit one's own stuff. You can add it if you like.
You are a master of the retort courteous.
(smile) Well, the only reason it's known is that I've never made a secret of it. I discussed my background and outlook in much more detail in a blog to 7000 constituents 7 years ago:
@Luckyguy1983 It predates Adam Smith by quite a margin, shortly after it was discovered lawyers crawled from the swamps and lost the fins on their backs. These creatures makes sure that the money flows in the right direction, after passing through their gills of course.
While we wait here is Basil's favourite number sequence. Now that h1 figures for august are in we can add a 3 to the right hand end: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3
No hint of a trend there. No, sirree.
22 months seen a 6% tightening,
So by June 2016 that would equate to a 3% Tory lead.
Impressive!!! pity Ed will have been PM for 13 months by then.
Last 8 months 3% tightening 8 months to GE 2015. EICIPM on that trend
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour has one-point lead: LAB 37%, CON 36%, UKIP 12%, LD 9% Expand
The combined support for these 4 parties totals 94%. Therefore there's only 6% remaining to share out among the Nats, Greens, BNP, Independents, Monster Ravers, Elvis Party, Uncle Tom Cobbley et al.
While we wait here is Basil's favourite number sequence. Now that h1 figures for august are in we can add a 3 to the right hand end: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3
No hint of a trend there. No, sirree.
22 months seen a 6% tightening,
So by June 2016 that would equate to a 3% Tory lead.
Impressive!!! pity Ed will have been PM for 13 months by then.
Last 8 months 3% tightening 8 months to GE 2015. EICIPM on that trend
I'm sure the "PB Tories" were being warned of similar trends as the last GE was approaching, and a certain Tory landslide drifted inevitably to a hung-parliament. At this same stage out from the last Ge, what was the Tory lead in the polls? Doesn't it worry you that the Labour lead isn't significantly higher?
While we wait here is Basil's favourite number sequence. Now that h1 figures for august are in we can add a 3 to the right hand end: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3
No hint of a trend there. No, sirree.
22 months seen a 6% tightening,
So by June 2016 that would equate to a 3% Tory lead.
Impressive!!! pity Ed will have been PM for 13 months by then.
Last 8 months 3% tightening 8 months to GE 2015. EICIPM on that trend
I'm sure the "PB Tories" were being warned of similar trends as the last GE was approaching, and a certain Tory landslide drifted inevitably to a hung-parliament. At this same stage out from the last Ge, what was the Tory lead in the polls? Doesn't it worry you that the Labour lead isn't significantly higher?
Yes think it will be very tight.
Incidentally ICM July 2013 had LAB/CON level and Aug 2013 3% Lab lead
While we wait here is Basil's favourite number sequence. Now that h1 figures for august are in we can add a 3 to the right hand end: 9 11 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3
No hint of a trend there. No, sirree.
22 months seen a 6% tightening,
So by June 2016 that would equate to a 3% Tory lead.
Impressive!!! pity Ed will have been PM for 13 months by then.
Last 8 months 3% tightening 8 months to GE 2015. EICIPM on that trend
You live in a uniformitarian world in which either nothing changes (tonight's yougov equates exactly to next May's result) or change is strictly linear (this post). Try adding a bit of catastrophism, it makes things more fun and approximates more closely to what actually happens.
NPXMP. You are a former Communist aren't you?, I looked at your Wiki page the other day, and for some reason it makes no mention of it.
That's right, up to when I was 21. But I didn't write my Wikipedia page, and one isn't supposed to edit one's own stuff. You can add it if you like.
You are a master of the retort courteous.
(smile) Well, the only reason it's known is that I've never made a secret of it. I discussed my background and outlook in much more detail in a blog to 7000 constituents 7 years ago:
Nothing is happening, nothing will happen until late Autumn.
What do you think will happen in late autumn, out of interest?
I expect the shift towards the Conservatives will start then, and proceed gently as the election approaches. However, it may not be enough to avoid Labour Most Seats.
My estimate of probabilities:
Lab Maj: Very unlikely. It could happen, but only if there is some game-changing event, such as Ed M ditching Balls in favour of Darling (assuming Darling wants the job, which I rather doubt).
Nothing is happening, nothing will happen until late Autumn.
What do you think will happen in late autumn, out of interest?
I expect the shift towards the Conservatives will start then, and proceed gently as the election approaches. However, it may not be enough to avoid Labour Most Seats.
My estimate of probabilities:
Lab Maj: Very unlikely. It could happen, but only if there is some game-changing event, such as Ed M ditching Balls in favour of Darling (assuming Darling wants the job, which I rather doubt).
Scotland’s Finance Minister has performed a “humiliating” about-turn and admitted the Bank of England held no discussions on the Nationalists’ plans for a currency union with an independent Scotland.
I thought the second debate couldn't go badly for Salmond like the first did, but with ammunition like this, who knows - particularly when his interlocutor is named after a character in Blackadder.
There doesn't appear to be anything cunning about the Yes campaign
'Entirely possible' Scotland won't share pound after independence, Alex Salmond's top economist admits
Crawford Beveridge, chair of the First Minister's Fiscal Commission Working Group, also says walking away from debt share will be seen as a 'default' by ratings agencies
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour has one-point lead: LAB 37%, CON 36%, UKIP 12%, LD 9% Expand
The combined support for these 4 parties totals 94%. Therefore there's only 6% remaining to share out among the Nats, Greens, BNP, Independents, Monster Ravers, Elvis Party, Uncle Tom Cobbley et al.
The BNP hardly exist anymore and the Greens won't get more than 3% because they probably won't contest half the seats.
Here's a fact for people living in the United States to ponder:
"Last year, in total, British police officers actually fired their weapons three times. The number of people fatally shot was zero. In 2012 the figure was just one".
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour has one-point lead: LAB 37%, CON 36%, UKIP 12%, LD 9% Expand
The combined support for these 4 parties totals 94%. Therefore there's only 6% remaining to share out among the Nats, Greens, BNP, Independents, Monster Ravers, Elvis Party, Uncle Tom Cobbley et al.
6% is too low for "others"
Guessing its more like Lab 36.6, Con 35.6, UKIP 11.6, LD 8.6 or some such tonight.
I cannot imagine how Foley's family must be feeling right now - let alone the terror going through the family of the other journalist being threatened by ISIS.
And if one of the perpetrators is from London it really does show how dangerous extreme islamism is and how far it is reached.
No religion or holy book can justify such acts - barbaric does not even come close.
Mr. Easterross, point of order: Byzantium can legitimately be considered Roman.
Point of order, sir!
There is no "legimately considered" qualification.
The Roman Empire did not come to and end until 1453. For over 2,000 years they (including the Monarchy and the Republic) they bestrode the world like a Colossus.
Comments
The rest of us are just sad.
ISIS have just released a video beheading photo-journalist James Foley. Its truly awful. And the executor has a British accent.
The map is not the territory - I bought an NLP book and they all get nicked from the libraries.
No hint of a trend there. No, sirree.
A lot of blood has been spilled, and is being spilled, over those lines far away empires drew.
Lib Dems Groping Here!
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/19/isis-islamic-state-threat-short-lived
Maybe we should just kill some of them to make ourselves feel better.
Ye know not of what ye speak
There'll be no YouGov on Monday.
Though there'll probably be some debate polling that night.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour has one-point lead: LAB 37%, CON 36%, UKIP 12%, LD 9%
Expand
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour has one-point lead: LAB 37%, CON 36%, UKIP 12%, LD 9%
"The worst that might be said of me in that report was that I may have inadvertently encroached on the personal space of some of the complainants, and I apologised for this to all four of them."
Sorry for inadvertently concluding that we have a serial groper. Now go and vote for us in 9 months time.
None of of it should distract from the overall mission.
As it is its just given the Whitehouse a tool if they want it. Foley by the way I think went missing in Syria.
EICIPM
Good night all
Yes in 2012.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
My understanding-
PB can influence (hubris!), Iraq, Israel/Palestine and Ukraine.
Any comments??
Or so I've been told...
@YouGov poll now out, mass march on @Sun_Politics offices called off.
Of course it can. All the world leaders hang on our every post, and have it relayed to them by their aides.
( I prefer cash Mike, brown envelope please? )
If those Con to Kipper switchers come back, Lab and Ed are screwed.
I wouldn't have the first idea how to update a Wiki page, I just thought it an odd omission, but thank you for advising me.
Night all.
That's right, you mentioned earlier you had contracted "gunnerea" .....
I'll get my coat?
Surely you wouldnt put any money on that would you TSE?
https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/BroxtoweMP/conversations/messages/472
I don't think I'd change much in what I wrote then, though some of the references are a bit obscure now (funding scandal?).
Nothing there to worry eicipm. Nothing in the world.
It predates Adam Smith by quite a margin, shortly after it was discovered lawyers crawled from the swamps and lost the fins on their backs.
These creatures makes sure that the money flows in the right direction, after passing through their gills of course.
So by June 2016 that would equate to a 3% Tory lead.
Impressive!!! pity Ed will have been PM for 13 months by then.
Last 8 months 3% tightening 8 months to GE 2015. EICIPM on that trend
Incidentally ICM July 2013 had LAB/CON level and Aug 2013 3% Lab lead
ICM jULY and AUG 2014 -2 AND 7& Lab lead
So not much of a trend
37% is THE number to look out for!
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-6.51,55.30,1322
Better angle: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-4.42,64.20,1322
Zoomed out: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-4.42,64.20,737
I love this site.
Nothing is happening, nothing will happen until late Autumn.
My estimate of probabilities:
Lab Maj: Very unlikely. It could happen, but only if there is some game-changing event, such as Ed M ditching Balls in favour of Darling (assuming Darling wants the job, which I rather doubt).
Con Maj: 20%
Con-led government (which includes Con Maj): 50%.
There doesn't appear to be anything cunning about the Yes campaign
and we may have ground frosts.
They didn't have a leg to stand on, legally...
"Last year, in total, British police officers actually fired their weapons three times. The number of people fatally shot was zero. In 2012 the figure was just one".
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/08/armed-police
Multiplying those numbers to take account of the US population being five times larger than the UK gives 15, 0 and 5 respectively.
Guessing its more like Lab 36.6, Con 35.6, UKIP 11.6, LD 8.6 or some such tonight.
A knife-wielding man is shot dead by Missouri police near the spot where an unarmed black teen was killed by an officer."
http://news.sky.com/story/1321517/missouri-unrest-suspect-shot-dead-by-police
Done by a man who has a London accent.
You don't get paid to play the Superbowl halftime show.
It's the biggest concert you'll ever play.
Rihanna, Katy Perry and Colfplay are under consideration - and there's a twist.
The NFL wants them to 'pay to play'.
Even for the money machine that is the NFL, that's a bit greedy.
I cannot imagine how Foley's family must be feeling right now - let alone the terror going through the family of the other journalist being threatened by ISIS.
And if one of the perpetrators is from London it really does show how dangerous extreme islamism is and how far it is reached.
No religion or holy book can justify such acts - barbaric does not even come close.
Coming on top of their inability to deal with David Ward, it shows how weak they are.
....and now good night all.
There is no "legimately considered" qualification.
The Roman Empire did not come to and end until 1453. For over 2,000 years they (including the Monarchy and the Republic) they bestrode the world like a Colossus.
When will YouGov give us the stats? They only have the poll for the 18th up at the moment
Since then it's just been a case of waiting for the rest of the shoes to fall.