I think post budget there was progress, but since the Euros, it's been consistently Lab +3 and with MOE.
The share of the votes for Con and Lab across most pollsters is consistent as well.
The remaining big events this year are
1) The indy ref results
2) The conferences (I'm expecting some eye catching stuff from them all)
3) The autumn statement.
Sounds right. Not sure the autumn statement will do much - previous ones haven't, because the reporting is always "on the one hand, on the other hand...", and that will be more true than ever in a pre-election statement. I do expect the Indyref to have a marked impact on Scottish votes (but what?), on English voters only briefly. Conferences don't usually do much, net, but you never know.
What about next year? There's the draft pre-election budget, and the campaign, and that's about it?
1) I suspect if it a no vote, there'll be a boost for the SNP, which won't affect many seats (there aren't many marginals in Scotland) but it might affect headline VI in the Westminster polls which could shrink that lead furthe
I have no idea what will happen if there is a yes
2) The last conference before the election, I expect another eye-catching policy from Ed, and I fully expect the Lib Dems differentiation strategy to notch up another gear at conference
3) I expect the Autumn Statement to be a political, and a tease for the budget (and possibly a response to 2)
I am due to start reading Mr Dancers comedy tomorrow
Are you talking about Sir Edric's Temple, Mr Owls? If so I envy you. Each to their own, of course, but I thought that book a hoot. Some of the real good belly laughs come flying in from the left-field so that you can only experience them once. On a re-read, which, I have done you know what is coming so the best you get is a knowing grin.
It reminds me of a few places that I have viewed...
There used to be an estate agent - perhaps still is? - who made a trademark of his downbeat descriptions - "Leaky, neglected house in desperate need of repair" etc. The idea was to stand out from rivals and appear to be offering a bargain.
Bex in The Firm?
"Well its 1935 or there abouts It was bombed during the war, and patched up with plasticine and blu-tac. The interior guttering is a unique feature,which is eh...caused by the raging damp But Latimer and Haines are supplying windscreen wipers for your television set You've got Otter traps in the cellar, and afree aqualung course at the local 'tec college Well I'm not saying its damp of course. But if the water levels rise anymore you could find yourself selling a house boat in a couple of years"
I think there's only two possible things that could majorly affect the next election: a huge NHS crisis over this winter (which would favour Labour) or another international economic crisis, possibly in the Eurozone (which I think would favour the Tories because of how people tend to "cling to nurse for fear of something worse" when there's an air of impending doom around).
I'm writing a thread about that latter scenario, triggered by a Yes vote.
Mark Carney said there might be a capital flight from Scotland if they vote yes, and he has plans.
So imagine in September and October 2014, there's another bank bailout/financial crisis, will that favour the Tories?
Labour got a boost in September 2008 onwards for a while.
Mr Hurstlama on the previous thread says there is no chance or evidence that the deficit is being reduced. This is another example of remarks flying in the face of facts. Spending plans show the deficit being eliminated. We have strong growth.
Criticism of the govt has degenerated into pantomime proportions. I little while back the best way to criticise success was that it was all down to housing mania and it would all explode in a bubble. Everyone was of course certain of this. But now you will read that everywhere not least London house prices are falling and there is a drop in mortgage lending. The Times reports ''Nationwide, which accounts for 15 per cent of all first-time buyer mortgages, said the mortgage market review, introduced in April by the Financial Conduct Authority to tighten checks by banks on mortgage applicants, had been a “significant development ... which have impacted customer behaviour”.''
(The Financial Conduct Authority was set up by Osborne)
Lets not worry ourselves too much though shall we - another excuse will be along in a minute.
I have just been sorting out my bed time reading which involved buying the next instalment of the Accursed Kings series. The first book was three pounds and a bit and each thereafter has been successively more expensive, number five being £5.98. A very cunning pricing policy which I draw to your attention.
I saw that on amazon and was intrigued - but noticed the graduated pricing, so decided against starting the series. Are they good?
Are they any good? Oh yes, Mr. B. I read them first decades ago then, in one of those odd conversations you get on this site, KLE4 mentioned them and that they were once again available and on Kindle. I have been thoroughly enjoying my romp through early XIVth century France and its amazing how much of the story I have forgotten. So worth every penny but you MUST read them in order.
I think there's only two possible things that could majorly affect the next election: a huge NHS crisis over this winter (which would favour Labour) or another international economic crisis, possibly in the Eurozone (which I think would favour the Tories because of how people tend to "cling to nurse for fear of something worse" when there's an air of impending doom around).
I'm writing a thread about that latter scenario, triggered by a Yes vote.
Mark Carney said there might be a capital flight from Scotland if they vote yes, and he has plans.
So imagine in September and October 2014, there's another bank bailout/financial crisis, will that favour the Tories?
Labour got a boost in September 2008 onwards for a while.
When there was all the Quebec independence fuss some years back, there was huge capital flight from there to Ontario, Even bank of Montreal moved its HQ to Toronto.
I have just been sorting out my bed time reading which involved buying the next instalment of the Accursed Kings series. The first book was three pounds and a bit and each thereafter has been successively more expensive, number five being £5.98. A very cunning pricing policy which I draw to your attention.
I saw that on amazon and was intrigued - but noticed the graduated pricing, so decided against starting the series. Are they good?
Are they any good? Oh yes, Mr. B. I read them first decades ago then, in one of those odd conversations you get on this site, KLE4 mentioned them and that they were once again available and on Kindle. I have been thoroughly enjoying my romp through early XIVth century France and its amazing how much of the story I have forgotten. So worth every penny but you MUST read them in order.
Thanks I shall note that - my kindle still has plenty of stuff I've not touched yet, including all 5 Game of Thrones books.
Brilliant stuff on the last thread regarding who is a 'true Conservative'. Not David Cameron, obviously - that is an article of faith amongst the moaning classes - but I was highly amused to see Cyclefree write "Thatcher was an old-fashioned Manchester Liberal. There was nothing remotely Conservative about her."
I'm confused now. Who on earth is or was a 'true Conservative' if both Maggie and Cameron aren't? Heath?
Brilliant stuff on the last thread regarding who is a 'true Conservative'. Not David Cameron, obviously - that is an article of faith amongst the moaning classes - but I was highly amused to see Cyclefree write "Thatcher was an old-fashioned Manchester Liberal. There was nothing remotely Conservative about her."
I'm confused now. Who on earth is or was a 'true Conservative'? Heath?
12. How do you define "abuse" of the NHS? Smoking? Drinking? Eating too much? Having accident's because you do stupid things? How do you define what a "stupid thing" is? Hypochondria? Mental illness caused by past drug/alcohol abuse? This is opening up a can of worms.
I can answer this one, abuse of the NHS should be classed as keeping fit and healthy, going to the gym, not smoking or drinking or being obese.
Plenty of studies have been done on lifetime healthcare and found that in ranking of total lifetime costs it goes ( from highest to lowest)
1) Fit healthy livers 2) The obese 3) Drinkers 4) Smokers
This is before they even calculate the savings in pension costs and is due to the fact that the last 3 categories while they have complications from their lifestyle tend to not survive them for long where as the fit and healthy have many years of ill health to look forward to in later life
I read somewhere that population is declining in Russia because so many younger people are abusing themselves on the ciggies and Vodka etc that they are dying young. Russia is a country of old women. What I read if I remember it right may be wrong of course but it points to the fact that it is not in fact so clever to lumber your country with a declining ageing population. It might be better to stay alive and pay taxes. I read somewhere else that the population of Japan is set to plummet and they are considering implementing mass immigration.
The intervention of Mr Rasmussen is a setback for SNP ministers. It comes as a poll for The Times shows that 45 per cent of Scots think that Mr Salmond is the wrong man to lead the Yes campaign. Only a third of voters think he was the right choice.
The YouGov poll shows Mr Salmond’s total trust ratings are down from 36 per cent in March to 35 per cent. In YouGov’s March poll, 56 per cent of Scots did not trust him. Now 58 per cent do not. Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign, is trusted by 38 per cent – up ten points since March – and distrusted by 52 per cent, down nine points.
An independent Scotland would have to apply to join Nato — with no guarantee of success, the head of the military alliance warned yesterday.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that any decision on accepting a new country into Nato had to be unanimous among all 28 member states.
“I am not going to interfere at all with a campaign leading up to the referendum in Scotland, but I can inform you about procedures and the facts,” Mr Rasmussen said. “In [the] case that Scotland voted in favour of independence, then Scotland would have to apply for membership of Nato as a new independent state. A decision on accession would have to be taken by unanimity, by consensus as always in Nato.”
I think post budget there was progress, but since the Euros, it's been consistently Lab +3 and with MOE.
The share of the votes for Con and Lab across most pollsters is consistent as well.
The remaining big events this year are
1) The indy ref results
2) The conferences (I'm expecting some eye catching stuff from them all)
3) The autumn statement.
Sounds right. Not sure the autumn statement will do much - previous ones haven't, because the reporting is always "on the one hand, on the other hand...", and that will be more true than ever in a pre-election statement. I do expect the Indyref to have a marked impact on Scottish votes (but what?), on English voters only briefly. Conferences don't usually do much, net, but you never know.
What about next year? There's the draft pre-election budget, and the campaign, and that's about it?
That's a strange way of looking at it.
What will shift things is the imminence of the election, not individual events. Of course there will probably be the usual volatility during the Conference season, which seasoned observers will discount, but the time to watch is late this year and early next year. That is when I expect to see the polls moving (they've been static for months, and likely to remain so until IndyRef is out of the way).
The question is whether the shift towards the Conservatives will be enough. We shall see, but I'd be amazed if there's not some shift.
There is a lot of US airforce prep work being done today over another huge dam complex at Haditha. ISIS/Sunni tribes are sitting within striking distance.
Note this dam is pretty far from Kurdish territory, its in Anbar province, a centre of Sunni opposition.
We'll soon see if the US military doesn't become the Iraqi airforce as the White House claims it won't be.
There is a lot of US airforce prep work being done today over another huge dam complex at Haditha. ISIS/Sunni tribes are sitting within striking distance.
Note this dam is pretty far from Kurdish territory, its in Anbar province, a centre of Sunni opposition.
We'll soon see if the US military doesn't become the Iraqi airforce as the White House claims it won't be.
Do you know whether the jihadists considered damaging the dam when they had (partial) control of it?
There is a lot of US airforce prep work being done today over another huge dam complex at Haditha. ISIS/Sunni tribes are sitting within striking distance.
Note this dam is pretty far from Kurdish territory, its in Anbar province, a centre of Sunni opposition.
We'll soon see if the US military doesn't become the Iraqi airforce as the White House claims it won't be.
Do you know whether the jihadists considered damaging the dam when they had (partial) control of it?
There is a lot of US airforce prep work being done today over another huge dam complex at Haditha. ISIS/Sunni tribes are sitting within striking distance.
Note this dam is pretty far from Kurdish territory, its in Anbar province, a centre of Sunni opposition.
We'll soon see if the US military doesn't become the Iraqi airforce as the White House claims it won't be.
Do you know whether the jihadists considered damaging the dam when they had (partial) control of it?
Which one, the Mosul Dam?
Yes, although I'd be interested to know for the other one as well.
There is a lot of US airforce prep work being done today over another huge dam complex at Haditha. ISIS/Sunni tribes are sitting within striking distance.
Note this dam is pretty far from Kurdish territory, its in Anbar province, a centre of Sunni opposition.
We'll soon see if the US military doesn't become the Iraqi airforce as the White House claims it won't be.
Do you know whether the jihadists considered damaging the dam when they had (partial) control of it?
Which one, the Mosul Dam?
Yes, although I'd be interested to know for the other one as well.
So far no at Mosul Dam. They've set plenty of explosive charges and IEDS in the channels leading to the dam and also in some buildings in the complex but I have yet to hear any reports of sabotaging the Dam itself or any control mechanisms.
My understanding is that they do not hold Haditha but are trying to get to it. Best guess as it stands is that they won't reach it.
There is a lot of US airforce prep work being done today over another huge dam complex at Haditha. ISIS/Sunni tribes are sitting within striking distance.
Note this dam is pretty far from Kurdish territory, its in Anbar province, a centre of Sunni opposition.
We'll soon see if the US military doesn't become the Iraqi airforce as the White House claims it won't be.
Do you know whether the jihadists considered damaging the dam when they had (partial) control of it?
Which one, the Mosul Dam?
Yes, although I'd be interested to know for the other one as well.
So far no at Mosul Dam. They've set plenty of explosive charges and IEDS in the channels leading to the dam and also in some buildings in the complex but I have yet to hear any reports of sabotaging the Dam itself or any control mechanisms.
My understanding is that they do not hold Haditha but are trying to get to it. Best guess as it stands is that they won't reach it.
I'm with EE, super annoyed with them due to their lack of response to fraudulent activity on my account at the start of this year. Rang their support line 3 times and said they would be back in touch each time.... and then NOTHING. Argh.
I'm with EE, super annoyed with them due to their lack of response to fraudulent activity on my account at the start of this year. Rang their support line 3 times and said they would be back in touch each time.... and then NOTHING. Argh.
EE customer services sucks.
If it wasn't for their superfast 4G network, and the fact I'm banned from o2 shops, I'd be back at o2 like a shot.
Well it would seem that @FlightPath is not prepared to either justify or apologise for the fold remark he made about me.
Like most people I sometimes say silly things and sometimes I post total bollocks. Fair go and if some one wants to pull me up on either I will normally happily apologise.
However, FlightPath has accused me of writing something stupid that I didn't actually write. And, though he has been back on the site since, he has refused to either support his allegation or apologise. I consider that jolly bad form.
I'm with EE, super annoyed with them due to their lack of response to fraudulent activity on my account at the start of this year. Rang their support line 3 times and said they would be back in touch each time.... and then NOTHING. Argh.
EE customer services sucks.
If it wasn't for their superfast 4G network, and the fact I'm banned from o2 shops, I'd be back at o2 like a shot.
Time to release some honey badgers into EE HQ, I think.
I'm with EE, super annoyed with them due to their lack of response to fraudulent activity on my account at the start of this year. Rang their support line 3 times and said they would be back in touch each time.... and then NOTHING. Argh.
EE customer services sucks.
If it wasn't for their superfast 4G network, and the fact I'm banned from o2 shops, I'd be back at o2 like a shot.
Time to release some honey badgers into EE HQ, I think.
I'm with EE, super annoyed with them due to their lack of response to fraudulent activity on my account at the start of this year. Rang their support line 3 times and said they would be back in touch each time.... and then NOTHING. Argh.
Switch to Utility Warehouse, award winning customer services based in the UK
Salmond's whole pitch seems to be that independence will be a Good Thing for Scotland, but nothing much will change.
There doesn't seem to be any clarity on anything from currency to debt assumption to the EU to NATO, except soothing words from Uncle Alex, and I suspect it's deliberate, because a Scotland with the groat, out of the EU and not in NATO is a lot less easy to vote for than merely thnking nice pure thoughts as you check the Yes box.
Good points from Anthony Wells on how the Yes 'momentum' in Panelbase and ICM is actually a reversion to the norm. Panelbase have had Yes on 46-48% since March and ICM have had Yes between 43-48%. So Panelbase's 48% and ICM's 45% not much different. All that seems to have happened is the small post debate bounce for No has eroded, which reinforces the point debates rarely have a big longterm impact on polling and even if Salmond has a big in next Monday it may not make that much difference either http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
Also interesting that a narrow majority of Scots want to keep nukes. According to a yougov poll last year while 40% of Scots want to give up nuclear weapons completely, about the percentage voting Yes, 51% want to keep nuclear weapons (16% want to replace Trident with an equally powerful missile system and 35% want a nuclear missile system which is less powerful and cheaper). See p 11 of the poll here http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/07/16/public-support-nuclear-weapons/ (Link under 'See full poll results')
1) I suspect if it a no vote, there'll be a boost for the SNP, which won't affect many seats (there aren't many marginals in Scotland) but it might affect headline VI in the Westminster polls which could shrink that lead furthe
I have no idea what will happen if there is a yes
2) The last conference before the election, I expect another eye-catching policy from Ed, and I fully expect the Lib Dems differentiation strategy to notch up another gear at conference
3) I expect the Autumn Statement to be a political, and a tease for the budget (and possibly a response to 2)
Do you want to bet a tenner on 1)? Specifically:
If there is a No vote, then if the first all-Scottish poll taken entirely after the event shows an increase in SNP share over the previous one from that institute, I pay you £10 If there is a No vote and there is no increase in the SNP share, you pay me £10 If there's a Yes vote, we both roll our eyes and the bet is cancelled.
1) I suspect if it a no vote, there'll be a boost for the SNP, which won't affect many seats (there aren't many marginals in Scotland) but it might affect headline VI in the Westminster polls which could shrink that lead furthe
I have no idea what will happen if there is a yes
2) The last conference before the election, I expect another eye-catching policy from Ed, and I fully expect the Lib Dems differentiation strategy to notch up another gear at conference
3) I expect the Autumn Statement to be a political, and a tease for the budget (and possibly a response to 2)
Do you want to bet a tenner on 1)? Specifically:
If there is a No vote, then if the first all-Scottish poll taken entirely after the event shows an increase in SNP share over the previous one from that institute, I pay you £10 If there is a No vote and there is no increase in the SNP share, you pay me £10 If there's a Yes vote, we both roll our eyes and the bet is cancelled.
I think there's only two possible things that could majorly affect the next election: a huge NHS crisis over this winter (which would favour Labour) or another international economic crisis, possibly in the Eurozone (which I think would favour the Tories because of how people tend to "cling to nurse for fear of something worse" when there's an air of impending doom around).
I'm writing a thread about that latter scenario, triggered by a Yes vote.
Mark Carney said there might be a capital flight from Scotland if they vote yes, and he has plans.
So imagine in September and October 2014, there's another bank bailout/financial crisis, will that favour the Tories?
Labour got a boost in September 2008 onwards for a while.
The major economic crisis doesn't start to get into play until October next year after the GE now.
There is another factor that may affect the next GE, and that is a bone chillingly cold winter, general government incompetence in dealing with it a la the 2010/11 winter. And after all the pronouncements on AGW, that would be a fitting way to seal the fate of this coalition government.
And now its the European Commission playing dirty surprise surprise. Can you imagine what a bone chillingly cold winter would do to the already tense geo-political situation? As I posted a while back, Bulgaria's banking crisis simply has not been reported in the mainstream media, and this no doubt won't be either.
There is another factor that may affect the next GE, and that is a bone chillingly cold winter
Are you predicting a bone chillingly cold winter? I only ask because I'll see home heating oil futures if you are
Nothing is a certainty with the weather, just like a lot of things. Even Piers Corbyn of weatheraction.com has got around an 80-85% success record, which he openly admits. For instance he was predicting a heatwave August which failed to materialise. But he was right on last winter being mild and very stormy, along with a lot of other extreme weather events.
Certainly its looking like we're past the peak for solar cycle 24 with cycles 25 and 26 going to be very quiet, leading to a Dalton minimum type event at best, and a Maunder Minimum (1640-1715) event at worst. And that isn't going to be good for agricultural production going forward.
'Humble tastes of the man tipped to be Britain’s first black prime minister'
Humble bo$$ocks would be more accurate.
Chuka Umuna / Harrison's humble opinion of voters.
'now Labour’s shadow business secretary, belongs to an exclusive online club for so-called ‘jetrosexuals’, where he asked for tips on the best nightspots to avoid the ‘trash and C-list wannabes’
Internet secrets of 'jetrosexual' Chuka Umunna party-loving ... www.dailymail.co.uk/.../Internet-secrets-jetrosexual-Chuka-Umunna-part...
Bulgaria's banking crisis simply has not been reported in the mainstream media
I've read lots about it in the FT. Are they not mainstream any more?
Possibly not. Mainstream media is, in any case, one of those terms that is becoming increasingly meaningless as it is so often abused to mean, 'media which I disagree with, even if the media I agree with, or people within it I agree with, are objectively just as mainstream', to the point I personally don't see much point in using the term legitimately anymore unfortunately, even though there are plenty of situation it would apply. For me anyway, it has become another loaded term more often than not.
According to Bloomberg the US has just barred its airlines flying over Syria.
I wonder why.....as far as we can tell, none do take the route anyway but the compulsory bar just about now seems interesting.......
As for Obama's claim that the Syrian chemical weapons have all gone, I'm curious as to what the regime forces have been tossing about today that looks suspiciously like some kind of chemical weapon.
For a refreshingly different perspective on SINDY, Orwell's biographer on what he might have made of the debate:
Homage to Caledonia: what would Orwell make of Britain’s break-up? If Orwell belonged anywhere he belonged to London, and he would have seen that the independence referendum is as much about the capital as it is about Scotland, writes Robert Colls.
For a refreshingly different perspective on SINDY, Orwell's biographer on what he might have made of the debate:
Homage to Caledonia: what would Orwell make of Britain’s break-up? If Orwell belonged anywhere he belonged to London, and he would have seen that the independence referendum is as much about the capital as it is about Scotland, writes Robert Colls.
i learn from a london friend that certain labour groups are recruiting london people to go up North and campaign for no to coincide with the postal votes...
(Just in case nobody else has mentioned it already)
Not just the Twitter gaffe by the bonkers former MP Louise Mensch, but also the Twitter gaffe by the bonkers unfortunately-still-an-MP Nadine Dorries.
------------------------------------------------------ Nadine Dorries MP @NadineDorriesMP How sick is this Tweet by Bedfordshire man? Some disgusting people on Twitter. Thanks for bringing to my attention ------------------------------------------------------
which was in response to
------------------------------------------------------ Mr Wood @woodo79 Robin Williams daughter has quit Twitter after being bombarded by abuse.
Good work everyone. ------------------------------------------------------
The Salmond answers, distilled from many Q&As, are, respectively, a bit of waffle on his fiscal commission, refusal to talk about even the idea of a separate currency, a firm belief that the Scottish People are behind his currency union plan (as if this is relevant to rUK negotiators), and an insistence that on these twin issues his scaremongering is better than theirs (which may be true).
11. Can someone explain what the big deal is about Chukka Umunna because I can't see it?
People have been saying that Chuka Umunna is the UK's next black PM, or the next Labour leader, or the UK's Obama, ever since he first became an MP. He doesn't seem to have done or said anything particularly outstanding or brilliant, beyond being a reasonaly competent MP; the only reason seems to be that he is (like Obama) pale black, thin, and fairly good-looking. "Therefore", apparently, he's some sort of Messiah who is going to lead the left and the nation into some sort of Obamaesque paradise.
Comments
Was Hannibal better at military strategy or eating other peoples brains?
I have no idea what will happen if there is a yes
2) The last conference before the election, I expect another eye-catching policy from Ed, and I fully expect the Lib Dems differentiation strategy to notch up another gear at conference
3) I expect the Autumn Statement to be a political, and a tease for the budget (and possibly a response to 2)
Reports that foreign military aircraft have launched airstrikes in Tripoli.
Cue denials from various countries and one very confused situation.
Sounds good use of £1.69
"Well its 1935 or there abouts It was bombed during the war, and patched up with plasticine and blu-tac. The interior guttering is a unique feature,which is eh...caused by the raging damp But Latimer and Haines are supplying windscreen wipers for your television set You've got Otter traps in the cellar, and afree aqualung course at the local 'tec college
Well I'm not saying its damp of course. But if the water levels rise anymore you could find yourself selling a house boat in a couple of years"
http://www.script-o-rama.com/movie_scripts/f/firm-script-transcript-gary-oldman.html
Mark Carney said there might be a capital flight from Scotland if they vote yes, and he has plans.
So imagine in September and October 2014, there's another bank bailout/financial crisis, will that favour the Tories?
Labour got a boost in September 2008 onwards for a while.
This is another example of remarks flying in the face of facts. Spending plans show the deficit being eliminated. We have strong growth.
Criticism of the govt has degenerated into pantomime proportions. I little while back the best way to criticise success was that it was all down to housing mania and it would all explode in a bubble. Everyone was of course certain of this. But now you will read that everywhere not least London house prices are falling and there is a drop in mortgage lending.
The Times reports
''Nationwide, which accounts for 15 per cent of all first-time buyer mortgages, said the mortgage market review, introduced in April by the Financial Conduct Authority to tighten checks by banks on mortgage applicants, had been a “significant development ... which have impacted customer behaviour”.''
(The Financial Conduct Authority was set up by Osborne)
Lets not worry ourselves too much though shall we - another excuse will be along in a minute.
It made me laugh nearly as much as the time I saw Ed Miliband attempt to eat a bacon sarnie.
Lets hope I dont pull my operation stitches laughing!
A Yes vote would have a major impact.
India have been 66/6 in their last four Test innings.
I said no such thing!
As if they haven't always been with us.
http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/
down the side of the page with the others?
1000 hits in two days... Britain's fastest growing betting blog!
I'm confused now. Who on earth is or was a 'true Conservative' if both Maggie and Cameron aren't? Heath?
You do know the Better Care Fund (Pot Hole fund) has taken £3.9bn of NHS money which LA's can do with what they want.
And the NHS VAT regieme has been tweaked to take another $1.5bn
You don;t (you will in GE2015)
I read somewhere else that the population of Japan is set to plummet and they are considering implementing mass immigration.
The intervention of Mr Rasmussen is a setback for SNP ministers. It comes as a poll for The Times shows that 45 per cent of Scots think that Mr Salmond is the wrong man to lead the Yes campaign. Only a third of voters think he was the right choice.
The YouGov poll shows Mr Salmond’s total trust ratings are down from 36 per cent in March to 35 per cent. In YouGov’s March poll, 56 per cent of Scots did not trust him. Now 58 per cent do not. Alistair Darling, leader of the Better Together campaign, is trusted by 38 per cent – up ten points since March – and distrusted by 52 per cent, down nine points.
I only write threads.
You said,
"Mr Hurstlama on the previous thread says there is no chance or evidence that the deficit is being reduced."
I fucking well didn't. I know I am getting on and the memory isn't what it once was, so you point me to the post where I said that.
1) Fit healthy livers
3) Drinkers
Surely people with 3) are yellow and cant have 1)
Gets Coat
What will shift things is the imminence of the election, not individual events. Of course there will probably be the usual volatility during the Conference season, which seasoned observers will discount, but the time to watch is late this year and early next year. That is when I expect to see the polls moving (they've been static for months, and likely to remain so until IndyRef is out of the way).
The question is whether the shift towards the Conservatives will be enough. We shall see, but I'd be amazed if there's not some shift.
There is a lot of US airforce prep work being done today over another huge dam complex at Haditha. ISIS/Sunni tribes are sitting within striking distance.
Note this dam is pretty far from Kurdish territory, its in Anbar province, a centre of Sunni opposition.
We'll soon see if the US military doesn't become the Iraqi airforce as the White House claims it won't be.
I have to admit I was fooled when I met her.
This is my provider's latest wheeze
http://www.whatmobile.net/2014/08/18/ee-introduce-50p-queue-jump-charge-customer-service-calls/
My understanding is that they do not hold Haditha but are trying to get to it. Best guess as it stands is that they won't reach it.
If it wasn't for their superfast 4G network, and the fact I'm banned from o2 shops, I'd be back at o2 like a shot.
Like most people I sometimes say silly things and sometimes I post total bollocks. Fair go and if some one wants to pull me up on either I will normally happily apologise.
However, FlightPath has accused me of writing something stupid that I didn't actually write. And, though he has been back on the site since, he has refused to either support his allegation or apologise. I consider that jolly bad form.
There doesn't seem to be any clarity on anything from currency to debt assumption to the EU to NATO, except soothing words from Uncle Alex, and I suspect it's deliberate, because a Scotland with the groat, out of the EU and not in NATO is a lot less easy to vote for than merely thnking nice pure thoughts as you check the Yes box.
29 days to go and still a clear majority favouring BT.
That's nasty.
If there is a No vote, then if the first all-Scottish poll taken entirely after the event shows an increase in SNP share over the previous one from that institute, I pay you £10
If there is a No vote and there is no increase in the SNP share, you pay me £10
If there's a Yes vote, we both roll our eyes and the bet is cancelled.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28840966
Keith Vaz: "a catastrophic result".
There is another factor that may affect the next GE, and that is a bone chillingly cold winter, general government incompetence in dealing with it a la the 2010/11 winter. And after all the pronouncements on AGW, that would be a fitting way to seal the fate of this coalition government.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-18/bulgaria-halts-south-stream-pipeline-again-nato-f-15s-troops-arrive
And now its the European Commission playing dirty surprise surprise. Can you imagine what a bone chillingly cold winter would do to the already tense geo-political situation? As I posted a while back, Bulgaria's banking crisis simply has not been reported in the mainstream media, and this no doubt won't be either.
Certainly its looking like we're past the peak for solar cycle 24 with cycles 25 and 26 going to be very quiet, leading to a Dalton minimum type event at best, and a Maunder Minimum (1640-1715) event at worst. And that isn't going to be good for agricultural production going forward.
I've met Piers Corbyn. I'd put more faith in your Elliot Waves than his forecasts!
Good night.
Night!
Humble bo$$ocks would be more accurate.
Chuka Umuna / Harrison's humble opinion of voters.
'now Labour’s shadow business secretary, belongs to an exclusive online club for so-called ‘jetrosexuals’, where he asked for tips on the best nightspots to avoid the ‘trash and C-list wannabes’
Internet secrets of 'jetrosexual' Chuka Umunna party-loving ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../Internet-secrets-jetrosexual-Chuka-Umunna-part...
Shouldn't that be rather central to any award of large damages ? Or have Ratheon's lawyers bamboozled the tribunal.
I wonder why.....as far as we can tell, none do take the route anyway but the compulsory bar just about now seems interesting.......
As for Obama's claim that the Syrian chemical weapons have all gone, I'm curious as to what the regime forces have been tossing about today that looks suspiciously like some kind of chemical weapon.
Homage to Caledonia: what would Orwell make of Britain’s break-up?
If Orwell belonged anywhere he belonged to London, and he would have seen that the independence referendum is as much about the capital as it is about Scotland, writes Robert Colls.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/homage-caledonia-what-would-orwell-make-britain-s-break
Not just the Twitter gaffe by the bonkers former MP Louise Mensch,
but also the Twitter gaffe by the bonkers unfortunately-still-an-MP Nadine Dorries.
------------------------------------------------------
Nadine Dorries MP
@NadineDorriesMP
How sick is this Tweet by Bedfordshire man? Some disgusting people on Twitter.
Thanks for bringing to my attention
------------------------------------------------------
which was in response to
------------------------------------------------------
Mr Wood
@woodo79
Robin Williams daughter has quit Twitter after being bombarded by abuse.
Good work everyone.
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https://twitter.com/NadineDorriesMP/status/499877440131723264
https://twitter.com/woodo79/status/499526216886792192
The Salmond answers, distilled from many Q&As, are, respectively, a bit of waffle on his fiscal commission, refusal to talk about even the idea of a separate currency, a firm belief that the Scottish People are behind his currency union plan (as if this is relevant to rUK negotiators), and an insistence that on these twin issues his scaremongering is better than theirs (which may be true).
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/abbey-backdrop-to-bowling-but-no-saltire-in-the-sky.25080365
Speaking of which there's a mayor called Castro in yankeeland apparently being groomed to play the role of president at some point in the near future.