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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open
Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.
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2. Well we have "boots on the ground" in the form of the Iraqi and Kurd armies. One would hope that with air support they might achieve the desired outcome against IS.
3. Harriet who?
4. The Greens won't be happy until we've turned the clock back to pre-industrial revolution day's and we're all living in huts and reading by candlelight.
5. I don't think Alan Johnson will come back, but Darling might.
6. Well this ended so well for John Major...
7. Dealers should go to prison, users to rehab.
8. Ideally faith would be kept out of foreign policy.
9. I think Alex secretly plans to get Scotland into the Euro, but he dare not admit it.
10. Would be ironic if Labour's "greatest achievement" ultimately destroy's them, north and south of the border.
11. Can someone explain what the big deal is about Chukka Umunna because I can't see it?
12. How do you define "abuse" of the NHS? Smoking? Drinking? Eating too much? Having accident's because you do stupid things? How do you define what a "stupid thing" is? Hypochondria? Mental illness caused by past drug/alcohol abuse? This is opening up a can of worms.
13. Louise Mensch is ditsy, but fun. "Snowflake" was similar...
14. This one has passed me by.
15. RIP.
16. Good on the girls! Women seem to do far better at sports than their more famous and over-paid male counterparts. Perhaps because they have to work harder to be professional sports people, women try harder?
17. Pervert!
18. Silly billy's...
19. Jacobite's everywhere will be rejoicing including our own Jacobite Rogue.
The prime minister will also return to his early personal messages about the importance of family. He will say: "For me, nothing matters more than family. It's at the centre of my life and the heart of my politics.
"As a husband and a father I know how incredibly lucky I am to have a wonderful wife and three amazing children. But in loving my family, and in reflecting on my own upbringing, I've also learned something incredibly important about the way that family and politics are inextricably linked.
Plenty of studies have been done on lifetime healthcare and found that in ranking of total lifetime costs it goes ( from highest to lowest)
1) Fit healthy livers
2) The obese
3) Drinkers
4) Smokers
This is before they even calculate the savings in pension costs and is due to the fact that the last 3 categories while they have complications from their lifestyle tend to not survive them for long where as the fit and healthy have many years of ill health to look forward to in later life
discussed here for example
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/03/22/alcohol-obesity-and-smoking-do-not-cost-health-care-systems-money/
-'get tough on'
-'clamp down on'
-'send a strong message'
-'stand up for'
-'tackle (something)'
All mean 'I can't solve the problem, but I need to be seen to be trying'. These should be abolished from politics. Difficult to return the country to the black? Oh well, you shouldn't have asked to be Chancellor then. Obama pressuring you to join his latest military scheme? Grow some balls -you asked to be elected to the highest office in the land ffs. EU won't let you do anything? Leave it or make merry hell till you get what you want.
The Sun and Sunday Times are very protective of their polls.
LOL
It makes a difference because it will push it back into the previous 15 day period - which ended on 15/08/14.
It'll mean that that 15 day period closes with a Lab lead of 3.10%.
OGH and Kellner don't get on though do they? Go on, you can tell us. Nobody's watching.
I need to update my master poll list, to add the missing polls between Wiki and UKPR's lists.
I thought something happened behind the scene's after that. Just a feeling I got. But maybe not.
Think I better drop it anyway.
I've added missing 2010 polls to the wiki from UKPR. I can quickly make a spreadsheet for you that lists the polls that are missing either on the wiki or on UKPR..
Lab 36.25 (-0.11)
Con 33.15 (+0.51)
LD 8.30 (+0.07)
UKIP 13.00 (-0.55)
So no big movements but mildly encouraging for Con. UKIP fall back but still slightly higher than they were 30 days ago.
Can you do a list of the polls not on UKPR.
Peter Kellner (YouGov)
(Lord) Andrew Cooper (Populus)
Andrew Hawkins (ComRes)
Bob Worcester (MORI)
ICM (forget the man's name)
Fun times.
Cause we don't mention Angus Reid anymore do we?;)
In a by-election the focus on just one seat means it's possible for an anti-UKIP sentiment to develop and coalesce. On the other hand in a general election no-one will be exactly sure, with a couple of exceptions, where they might put in an unusually good performance, come through the middle, etc. So they're maybe more likely to pick up a few seats in a GE context when hundreds of seats are being contested at the same time.
Might sound obvious but hitherto it was accepted that protest vote parties had a better chance in by-elections.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/91gutkydc8/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Voting-Trends-with-UKIP-150814.pdf
Coming through the middle is particularly hard if LibDem support is evaporating, because there will be fewer two-party+UKIP or three-party+UKIP races if the voters have hit one of the parties around the back of the head with a shovel and buried it in a hole.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Con 33%, Labour 38%, Lib Dems 8%, UKIP 12%
Con 33
https://c1.staticflickr.com/9/8348/8202653918_01aaedfbd7_z.jpg
EICIPM
Does anyone still think the Tories are actually making progress? The lead varies up and down, but it's been basically 3-4 for a long time.
11.8.14 LAB 331 (330) CON 261(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 268 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
The share of the votes for Con and Lab across most pollsters is consistent as well.
The remaining big events this year are
1) The indy ref results
2) The conferences (I'm expecting some eye catching stuff from them all)
3) The autumn statement.
Or is this post just a repeat of what was posted last week?
Con -1.93%
Lab +0.60%
LD +2.13%
UKIP -0.49%
Others -0.31%
A small bias against right-of-centre parties.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_(United_Kingdom)#2014
P.S. Ignore the Conan Doyle nonsense about being on the Moor when the powers of darkness are exulted, jut carry a torch.
I'm still giving them the benefit of the doubt until Christmas, because I think usually the polls move sometime around six months before a general election (which will be November of course) but if we're still going around in circles by Christmas I'm going to have to take action in the New Year...
Is a trick I taught OGH.
Make sure you buy/have a decent roaming package, you don't get stung for data.
Todays BJESUS
18.8.14 LAB 331 (332) CON 261(26O) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 261 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
17.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
24.6.14 LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
1.7.14 LAB 329(330) CON 268 (263) LD 29(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24(24) (Ed is crap is PM)
8.7.14 LAB 330 (329) CON 264(268) LD 32(29) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
15.7.14 LAB 329 (330) CON 264(264) LD 33(32) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
22.7.14 LAB 331 (329) CON 261(264) LD 34(33) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
29.7.14 LAB 332 (331) CON 260(261) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
5.8.14 LAB 330(332) CON 262(260) LD 34(34 UKIP0(0) Others 24 (Ed is Crap is PM)
12.8.14 LAB 332 (330) CON 260(262) LD 34(34) UKIP 0(0) Others 24 (Ed is crap is PM)
18.8.14 LAB 331(332) CON 261(260) LD 34(34) UKIP0(0) Others 24 Ed is crap is PM
I have just been sorting out my bed time reading which involved buying the next instalment of the Accursed Kings series. The first book was three pounds and a bit and each thereafter has been successively more expensive, number five being £5.98. A very cunning pricing policy which I draw to your attention.
Pretty sure will be a GE2015 national one
What about next year? There's the draft pre-election budget, and the campaign, and that's about it?